<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="550" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-820x550.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-472496" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-820x550.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-768x515.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-1536x1030.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/QASBB3K3FJKGZCBL7XYAB5FYUA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Wind turbines produce renewable energy outside Caledon, South Africa, May 20, 2020. Picture taken May 20, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 2 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;China has a unique opportunity to drive forward an energy revolution in Africa, but it must first reverse nearly two decades of neglect of green power investments there, research from Boston University showed on Tuesday.



Beijing has emerged as the continent&#8217;s biggest bilateral trading partner since the start of the century and has financed billions of dollars worth of large-scale infrastructure projects.



Three years ago, China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping said the country would not build new coal-fired power projects abroad, pledging to deal with climate change by supporting the development of green and low-carbon energy.



Although Africa&#8217;s green energy potential is one of the highest in the world, Chinese lending and investment has so far provided relatively little support for the continent&#8217;s energy transition, according to a report from Boston University&#8217;s Global Development Policy Center and the African Economic Research Consortium.



Lending for renewables, such as solar and wind, from China&#8217;s two main development finance institutions constituted just 2% of their $52 billion of energy loans from 2000 to 2022, while more than 50% is allocated to fossil fuels.



&#8220;Given current economic challenges and future energy opportunities, China can play a role in contributing to Africa&#8217;s energy access and transition through trade, finance and FDI (foreign direct investment),&#8221; the report said.



Chinese development finance institutions have been focused on investing in the extraction and export of commodities to China and in electrification projects.



Chinese lending has targeted many of the same sectors that produce the oil and minerals that flow back to China.



At least eight hydropower projects financed by the Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), which represent 26% of all hydropower lending, are intended to support the extraction of various metals.



&#8220;Although this track has led to export revenues for African economies, African countries are not yet receiving the full benefits of renewable energy technologies,&#8221; the report said.



In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for around 75% of total electricity generation in Africa and about 90% of energy consumption, the report said.



(Reporting by Anait Miridzhanian, Editing by Rachel Savage and Ros Russell)

FILE PHOTO: Wind turbines produce renewable energy outside Caledon

China could drive Africa’s renewable energy revolution, report says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-444650" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Greece has been struggling with forest fires that could not be controlled for 10 days on July 27, 2023 in Rhodes, Greece. Dia Images | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Scientists on Tuesday confirmed 2023 as the hottest year on record and warned that the planet is now within touching distance of smashing through the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.



The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said 2023, a year in which one researcher described temperature anomalies as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” was the warmest calendar year in global temperature data stretching back to 1850.



The 12-month period ended with a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 0.2 degree Celsius higher than the previous record set in 2016.



Extreme heat is fueled by the climate crisis, the chief driver of which is the burning of fossil fuels.



Scientists at C3S said 2023 was the first time on record that every day within a year surpassed 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial reference period of 1850 to 1900, while nearly 50% of days were over 1.5 degrees Celsius.



What’s more, the EU’s climate change service said two days in November were found to have surpassed 2 degrees Celsius for the first time ever.



Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said in a statement Tuesday that 2023 was “an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes.”



The findings come after repeated warnings in recent years about the likelihood of the world climbing above the aspirational goal of the landmark Paris Agreement.



The 2015 accord aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” and calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming.



The importance of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is widely recognized as an indicator of the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and the planet.



The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.

107355897-1704798506588-gettyimages-1246816913-AFP_338K67C

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-435831" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GTR4FRR34RIYHMTLPBM4CQTLEI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Firefighters tackle fire in a field as forest fires ravage the Bolivian Amazon, in San Buenaventura, Bolivia November 22, 2023. REUTERS/Claudia Morales//File Photo</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, Dec 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;How to adapt to the impacts of climate change was one of the many difficult questions addressed at the COP28 talks in Dubai &#8211; and how to pay for it has yet to be answered.



The final deal from the U.N. climate summit in Dubai on Wednesday was vague on where much-needed finance would come from &#8211; a topic picked up by a number of countries as they commented on the deal.



&#8220;Adaptation is really a life and death issue,&#8221; the Bangladesh climate envoy Saber Hossain Chowdhury said. &#8220;We cannot compromise on adaptation. We cannot compromise on lives and livelihoods.&#8221;



So finance should be &#8220;geared to delivering the resources that we need,&#8221; he said. &#8220;It&#8217;s absolutely fundamental.&#8221;



A source involved in the talks said a push for firmer action had been hampered by the need to agree a new overall climate finance target next year. The current $100 billion annual target &#8211; which had been missed in the past &#8211; expires in 2025.



Despite that, the source said delegates had increasingly acknowledged adaptation finance was not just about moving &#8220;chunks of money north to south&#8221;, but part of a wider discussion about what a country&#8217;s economy would look like in the future.



As a result, a requirement in the final deal for countries to deliver a national adaptation plan by 2030 &#8211; 51 countries have already done so &#8211; should, in theory, help the available money get to where it is needed most.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-significant-start">&#8216;SIGNIFICANT START&#8217;</h2>



Despite concern around the lack of commitment to provide more money, Singapore&#8217;s environment minister said she was glad the topic had risen up the agenda.



&#8220;As a small island state we struggled with adaptation for many editions of COP,&#8221; said Grace Fu, so the inclusion of more focused language in the final deal text was &#8220;a very significant start for us&#8221;.



The sharper focus followed a landmark November U.N. report showing that developing nations would need up to 18 times more funding than they currently receive to build resilience into their economies to withstand the impacts of climate change.



The annual financing shortfall for adaptation was as much as $366 billion, compared with the $25 billion provided during the 2017-2021 period, the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) said.



David Nicholson, chief climate officer at humanitarian NGO Mercy Corps, called the report a &#8220;wake-up call&#8221;.



Yet money flows remain sluggish. The biggest news announced at COP28 was a commitment of $3 billion in new money from the United States to the Green Climate Fund, which aims to put at least half of its investment dollars into adaptation projects.



&#8220;At COP28, the international community made progress in righting the scales,&#8221; GCF chief Mafalda Duarte told Reuters, pointing to a total of $12.8 billion in new capital raised for the fund to support climate action across the developing world.



&#8220;It must mobilise global solidarity with those countries least prepared to safeguard communities from climate impacts.&#8221;



A U.N. Adaptation Fund, though, had only raised around half of the $300 million it had hoped to reach in 2023 by the end of the conference.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-hurdles">HURDLES</h2>



For many private investors, the hurdles include working out how to make a profit from projects, even though failure to finance adaptation could ultimately impact their other investments.



&#8220;Lenders are finding it challenging to see the returns that can be made in this sector. There are insufficient incentives for lenders at the moment,&#8221; John Shum, partner at law firm King &amp; Wood Mallesons, said.



The areas where investors could do more include helping to bolster natural ecosystems in exchange for valuable carbon credits or building climate-resilient infrastructure. Others are also investing in bonds linked to protecting nature.



Regulators also need to force companies to disclose their exposure to the physical risks of climate change and to reward those taking action to reduce their exposure through better credit ratings and lower capital requirements, said Rowan Douglas, CEO, at Howden Climate Risk and Resilience.



&#8220;Without it, there is limited economic rationale or reward for investing in adaptation.&#8221;



For Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, mayor of the Sierra Leone capital Freetown, among the most vulnerable cities in Africa as it faces floods and coastal erosion, adaptation and mitigation, such as greening energy supplies, needed to be considered together.



&#8220;Making too fine a distinction just makes for division. We&#8217;re at the point now where we should be addressing the climate crisis and the funding should be what it is.&#8221;



(Reporting by Simon Jessop, David Stanway, Kate Abnett; Editing by Katy Daigle and Barbara Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: Firefighters tackle fire in a field as forest fires ravage the Bolivian Amazon, in San Buenaventura

COP28 calls for adapting to warmer world without resolving how to pay

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="599" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-820x599.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-432717" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-820x599.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-300x219.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-123x90.jpg 123w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-768x561.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-1536x1122.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IU3FWJ6GIFLSZJZKHJ6VYDSSLM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: &#8216;COP28 UAE&#8217; logo is displayed on the screen during the opening ceremony of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) under the theme of &#8216;United on Climate Action Toward COP28&#8217;, in Abu Dhabi, UAE, January 16, 2023. REUTERS/Rula Rouhana/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) &#8211; Money pledges grabbed the spotlight again at COP28 in Dubai on Monday as delegates turned their focus to the yawning gap in the need for climate finance and what&#8217;s on offer.



The United Arab Emirates, the host of this year&#8217;s conference, pledged $270 billion in green finance by 2030 through its banks, and several development banks made fresh moves to scale up their funding efforts, including by agreeing to pause debt repayments when disaster strikes.



But leaders of the region&#8217;s biggest economy and the world&#8217;s biggest oil producer Saudi Arabia have so far not attended the U.N. summit, in sharp contrast to their participation in last year&#8217;s COP27 conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.



On Monday, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, energy minister and the key climate negotiator, for the kingdom, was a no-show at the Saudi Green Initiative. De facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman also did not deliver a speech to world leaders as scheduled on Friday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-vast-needs">VAST NEEDS</h2>



The amount of cash needed for the energy transition, climate adaptation and disaster relief is overwhelming.



A report released Monday estimated that emerging markets and developing countries will need $2.4 trillion a year in investment to cap emissions and adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.



&#8220;The world is not on track to realise the goals of the Paris Agreement. The reason for this failure is a lack of investment, particularly in emerging market and developing countries outside China,&#8221; said co-author Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.



&#8220;The central challenge is to accelerate and implement the fostering and financing of this investment from a range of sources.&#8221;



Vulnerable countries that are already being hit by costly climate disasters are asking for billions more through a newly formed disaster fund, although current pledges are only around $700 million.



&#8220;Unless we have an urgent set of decision-making, we are going to suffer what every parent suffers from &#8211; exciting expectations and being unable to deliver,&#8221; said Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who has become a prominent voice in global discussions about mobilising climate finance.



In a news conference, she urged countries to go beyond voluntary pledges and pleas to charities and private investors and instead to consider taxes as a way to boost climate funding.



A global 0.1% tax on financial services, for example, could raise $420 billion, she said, while a 5% tax on global oil and gas profits in 2022 would have yielded around $200 billion.



&#8220;The planet needs global governance not in a big stick way, but in a simple way of us cooperating with each other to be able to work with the institutions that we have,&#8221; she added.



Other delegates, including U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, have called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies which have hit a record $7 trillion per year.



Activists with the Asian Peoples&#8217; Movement on Debt and Development said they worried the sums pledged would be inadequate.



&#8220;The climate finance that they have pledged at this COP28 is simply not enough,&#8221; said Pakistani activist Zaigham Abbas, whose country was devastated last year by widespread flooding. &#8220;We are not looking for charity here. We are not looking for peanuts &#8230; The scale of the catastrophe that we are staring is unprecedented.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-moving-money">MOVING MONEY</h2>



The biggest pledge on Monday came from the UAE&#8217;s banking system, joining peers in other regions in pledging to lend more to green projects. It followed a Friday pledge of $30 billion for climate-related projects from the oil producing Gulf state.



Elsewhere, France and Japan said they would support a move by the African Development Bank to leverage IMF Special Drawing Rights for climate and development.



The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, meanwhile, said it would include climate resilient debt clauses in new loan deals with some poorer countries.



Danish investment firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners announced plans to raise $3 billion for renewable projects in emerging markets.



This year also features the biggest-ever representation of business at the annual U.N. summit, amid hopes for more private investment toward climate causes.



The emirate of Abu Dhabi teamed up with private sector partners including BlackRock and HSBC to launch a climate research and advisory hub to boost financing options in the region.



&#8220;The scale of the climate crisis demands urgent and game-changing solutions from every industry,&#8221; COP28 President Ahmed Al-Jaber said. &#8220;Finance plays a critical role in turning our ambitions into actions.&#8221;



For daily comprehensive coverage on COP28 in your inbox, sign up for the Reuters Sustainable Switch newsletter here.



(Reporting by Simon Jessop, Maha El Dahan and Hadeel Al Sayegh; Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell, Elizabeth Piper and David Stanway; Editing by Katy Daigle and Miral Fahmy)

FILE PHOTO: ‘COP28 UAE’ logo is displayed on the screen during the opening ceremony of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) under the theme of ‘United on Climate Action Toward COP28’, in Abu Dhabi

Climate finance takes centre stage at COP28 climate talks

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-431887" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GettyImages-1815432571.jpg 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Attendees arrive at the Blue Zone on day three of the COP28 climate conference at Expo City in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. More than 70,000 politicians, diplomats, campaigners, financiers and business leaders will fly to Dubai to talk about arresting the world&#8217;s slide toward environmental catastrophe. Photographer: Annie Sakkab/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Dubai &#8211; The annual United Nations Climate Summit, known as COP28, is underway in Dubai, focusing on targeted action to address climate change and create a sustainable future for the planet. With over 100,000 participants, including global leaders and heads of states, this year&#8217;s event has become the most attended COP ever.



During the first day of the conference, an agreement was reached on the implementation of the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6342094936112/loss-damage-fund-implementation-tops-africas-agenda-at-cop28-/">Loss and Damages Fund,</a> which aims to raise funds to protect vulnerable countries and support their adaptation to climate change. The initial target was set at $200 million, but pledges have already exceeded $400 million. According to the COP28 President, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, this outcome demonstrates the commitment of world leaders to addressing the climate crisis.



In an<a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6342161646112/cop28-president-on-africas-progress-in-energy-transition/"> interview with CNBC Africa</a>, Al-Jaber also highlighted the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2023/africa-climate-summit-opens-with-focus-on-financing-continental-unity/">Africa Climate Summit</a> that took place in Nairobi before COP28. He commended the summit for its unique platform and emphasized the role it played in shaping COP28&#8217;s strategy and objectives. He stated that Africa&#8217;s political will and hands-on experience were instrumental in formulating an action-oriented agenda to address global challenges and keep the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach.



To support Africa&#8217;s energy transition, Al-Jaber announced the launch of a $4.5 billion fund that aims to replicate the success of the renewable energy projects implemented by Mazdar over the past 17 years. The fund, backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will provide equity and development funding to attract private capital and mitigate risks, ensuring the security of investments in renewable energy projects across the continent. Al-Jaber projected that the fund, which has already started deploying $4.5 billion, will reach a total of $25 billion in the next three years.



The fund&#8217;s objective is to address Africa&#8217;s growing energy needs, stimulate economic development, create jobs, attract industries, and transfer knowledge and technology. Al-Jaber emphasized the importance of supporting the entire value chain of businesses involved in renewable energy projects, from manufacturing to supply chain resilience.



The COP28 President also praised Kenyan President William Ruto for his efforts in climate action, highlighting the unprecedented progress made in the country. These efforts align with the agenda of COP28 and contribute to advancing the energy transition in Africa and achieving global sustainability goals.



With Africa&#8217;s abundant renewable energy potential and increasing demand, the continent represents a significant opportunity for investment and development. The establishment of the $4.5 billion fund and the commitment of world leaders at COP28 demonstrate the international community&#8217;s recognition of Africa&#8217;s role in the energy transition and the urgent need to support sustainable development in the region.

Countries-at-COP28-approve-climate-disaster-fund-deal-details-in-early-breakthrough

COP28 President highlights Africa’s progress in energy transition at Climate Conference

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-430869" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">In this aerial view water vapour and exhaust rise from the steel mill of Salzgitter AG, one Europe’s largest steel producers, on November 22, 2023 in Salzgitter, Germany. Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Policymakers and business leaders from across the globe are set to arrive in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates for the world’s biggest and most important annual climate conference.



The COP28 summit, which starts on Thursday and is scheduled to run through to Dec. 12, will provide a critical forum for government officials, business leaders and campaign groups to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis.



The pressure to deliver is immense. Global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions continue to break records, with no continent left untouched by more frequent and intense extreme weather events.



Here’s a look at what’s at stake at COP28.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-money"><a></a>Money</h2>



Climate finance is always a hotly debated talking point at the U.N. summit and COP28 promises to be no different. It refers to the financing needed to support efforts to both significantly reduce emissions and adjust to the effects of climate change.



Talks in Bonn, Germany earlier in the year became gridlocked over this issue of finance and support, with some low-income countries refusing to talk about slashing emissions unless there was an equal focus on how wealthy nations would provide cash to them.



It laid the groundwork for what one environmental group expects to be a “huge fight” between high-income and low-income nations at COP28.



Data published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in mid-November, however, showed that rich countries had finally fulfilled their promise to provide $100 billion a year to low-income countries — albeit two years after the deadline. It is hoped that this could go some way to fostering goodwill at the summit.



“COP28 has a massive role to play in setting the political direction for a transformational shift in climate ambition. But without finance and economic confidence, countries won’t be able to act at the pace and scale needed,” said Alex Scott, program lead at E3G, an independent climate think tank.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Loss and damage</h2>



Another major financial issue will be to operationalize the so-called “loss and damage” fund, arguably the main legacy of last year’s COP27 summit in Egypt.



Rich countries, despite accounting for the bulk of historical greenhouse gas emissions, have long opposed the creation of a fund to compensate low-income countries for the loss and damage they’ve caused.



Advocates argue, however, that it is required to account for climate impacts — including hurricanes, floods and wildfires or slow-onset impacts such as rising sea levels — that countries cannot defend against because the risks are unavoidable, or the countries cannot afford it.



The establishment of the loss and damage fund at COP27 was seen as a historic breakthrough and potential turning point in the climate crisis, although many key details were left unresolved — such as who should pay into the fund, how large should it be and who should administer the money.



Countries reached a consensus on how to approach loss and damage payments during tense discissions that ran into overtime earlier this month. Yet it remains to be seen whether this fragile agreement can hold for countries to successfully operationalize the fund in the UAE.



“Billions of people, lives and livelihoods who are vulnerable to the effects of climate change depend upon the adoption of this recommended approach at COP28,” Sultan al-Jaber, president-designate of COP28, said in a statement on Nov. 5.



Al-Jaber was seen as a controversial choice to lead COP28 discussions in Dubai given that he also works as the head of the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.



Climate activists criticized his appointment saying his position as an oil executive reflects a clear conflict of interest — akin to “putting the fox in charge of the henhouse.” His office has said he will play a pivotal role in the intergovernmental discussions to build consensus at the event.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Fossil fuels</h2>



Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute, said COP28 will be the biggest accountability moment for climate action in history — and fossil fuels will be at the heart of the talks.



She anticipated three main debates around the use of oil, gas and coal — the burning of which is the chief driver of the climate crisis.



“So, one is this ‘phase out’ or ‘phase down’ [of fossil fuels]. Actually, for us at WRI, since neither of those has got a timeline, the most important thing for us is that whatever language they agree to, it needs to send a really strong signal that the world is rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels and it will do so equitably,” Robinson told CNBC via telephone.



“The second, but perhaps slightly linked, issue is whether it is ‘abated’ or ‘unabated.’ There’s a whole debate about the role of carbon capture technology abating emissions and there are certainly some oil companies and producer countries who would try to have us believe that with CCS [carbon capture and storage] we can continue to burn fossil fuels and still achieve our climate goals,” she continued.



“We think the science suggests that is simply not true. There is no credible scenario where CCS will allow continued use of fossil fuels, let alone expanding oil and gas. So, for us, it is important that COP28 acknowledges the limited role CCS will play.”



Abated fossil fuels refer to the process in which emissions are captured and stored with carbon capture and storage technologies. The definition of unabated fossil fuels lacks clarity, despite the term cropping up in several climate commitments, but it is said to refer to fossil fuels produced and used without interventions to substantially reduce the amount of emitted greenhouse gases.



Robinson said the third talking point on fossil fuels was that there is a risk Dubai “could become a platform celebrating pledges from the oil and gas industry that fail to curb the emissions of their products.”



She warned that any net zero pledge from the oil and gas industry that doesn’t involve so-called Scope 3 emissions would not be significant. Scope 3 emissions refer to the emissions produced from across a company’s entire value chain, and often account for the lion’s share of a firm’s carbon footprint.



“For us, it’s a bit like a cigarette company saying that whatever happens to cigarettes after they leave the factory gate has got nothing to do with them. So, that I think we have to watch,” Robinson said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>A course correction?</h2>



One unique component of the Dubai climate talks is the conclusion of the first global stocktake since the landmark Paris Agreement — the 2015 accord that aims to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.



The world has already warmed by around 1.1 degrees Celsius, scientists say, after over a century of burning fossil fuels as well as unequal and unsustainable energy and land use. Indeed, it is this temperature increase that is fueling a series of extreme weather events around the world.



The stocktake is the main tool through which progress under the Paris Agreement is assessed. According to the U.N. global stocktake synthesis report released in early September, only transformational change will be enough to get the world back on track to meeting its climate goals.

107338543-1700826590772-gettyimages-1808236454-dji_20231122104648_0051_d_odwns4n3

A showdown is brewing over money, oil and carbon. Here’s what’s at stake at the COP28 climate summit

Geneva, Switzerland, 28 November 2023&nbsp;– Transitioning to a more sustainable and carbon-neutral future, $13.5 trillion in investments will be needed by 2050, particularly in the production, energy and transport sectors, according to a new World Economic Forum report.



The&nbsp;Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2023, published in collaboration with Accenture, takes stock of progress towards net-zero emissions for eight industries – steel, cement, aluminum, ammonia, excluding other chemicals, oil and gas, aviation, shipping and trucking – which depend on fossil fuels for 90% of their energy demand and pose some of the most technological and capital-intensive decarbonization challenges.



The report, published the same week as the United Nations called at COP28 for “dramatic climate action” to close an “emissions canyon”, outlines pathways to accelerate the decarbonization of emission-intensive production, energy and transport industries.&nbsp;While the pathway to net zero in these sectors will differ based on unique sectoral and regional factors, investments in clean power, clean hydrogen and infrastructure for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will be needed to accelerate industrial decarbonization across most sectors.



“Decarbonizing these industrial and transport sectors, which emit 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions today, is essential to achieving net zero, especially as demand for industrial products and transport services will continue to be strong,” said Roberto Bocca, Head of Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “Significant infrastructure investments are required, complemented by policies and stronger incentives so industries can switch to low-emission technologies while ensuring access to affordable and reliable resources critical for economic growth.”



According to the report, the $13.5 trillion in investments is derived from average clean power generation costs of solar, off-shore and on-shore wind, nuclear and geothermal, electrolyzer costs for clean hydrogen and carbon transport, as well as storage costs.



The Net-Zero Industry Tracker proposes a comprehensive framework of emissions drivers and enablers to measure progress and identify gaps, scorecards for each industry, and opportunities for cross-sector collaboration. Building on the 2022 edition, the updated report includes transportation sectors and applies the framework to identify strategies for net-zero industrial transformation.



The report’s findings underscore the urgency for creating a robust enabling environment, including low-emissions technologies, infrastructure, demand for green products, policies and investments. In addition to increasing capital expenditures to decarbonize existing industrial and transport asset bases, further investment is needed to build a clean-energy infrastructure.



Share of global GHG emissions for heavy industrial and transport sectors



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="956" height="856" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph.jpg" alt="W" class="wp-image-430686" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph.jpg 956w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph-300x269.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph-820x734.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph-101x90.jpg 101w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WEF_Image_Graph-768x688.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 956px) 100vw, 956px" /></figure>



The majority of the technologies needed to deliver net-zero emissions are expected to reach commercial maturity after 2030, highlighting the need for collaborative approaches to research, develop and scale them. This includes substituting legacy technologies with low-emission alternatives, increasing efficiency of processes and machinery, electrification and driving circularity.



“It is imperative that action is taken soon to both decarbonize and improve energy efficiency; otherwise, unabated fossil-fuel demand in the key industry sectors, which have grown 8% on average the past three years, will increase very significantly by 2050,” said Bocca. “But industrial leaders can&nbsp; respond through new collaborative ways of working and innovating, for example within&nbsp;<a href="https://weforum.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6308fe51b420dc9ff3834abc8&amp;id=5e48b8e30b&amp;e=d66be97e93">industrial clusters</a>&nbsp;and by fostering best practices, sharing infrastructure in important areas like clean hydrogen and CCUS and building &nbsp;demand for lower-emissions products.”



According to the report, carbon pricing, tax subsidies, public procurement and development of strong business cases can support in mobilizing necessary investments. However, raising capital for high-risk projects with unproven technologies could be challenging in the current macroeconomic environment. Institutional investors and multilateral banks, therefore, can play an important role by providing access to low-cost capital linked to emissions targets; equally vital is adapting financial models to the needs of various industries and regions.



“Collaboration between the public and private sectors is critical to a successful energy transition, and technology can be a key enabler in both managing affordable and reliable access to clean energy and addressing the incremental cost of decarbonization,” said Muqsit Ashraf, who leads&nbsp;<a href="https://weforum.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6308fe51b420dc9ff3834abc8&amp;id=095135a5bd&amp;e=d66be97e93">Accenture Strategy</a>. “Widespread scaling and adoption of clean power, carbon capture and storage, and energy efficiency technologies across sectors are vital for progress. Additionally, business model innovations can also help stimulate demand and accelerate industrial decarbonization — achieving&nbsp;<a href="https://weforum.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6308fe51b420dc9ff3834abc8&amp;id=08ae963912&amp;e=d66be97e93">net-zero objectives</a>&nbsp;and a resilient energy transition.”



The report acknowledges that recent policy developments can push the industrial net-zero transformation in the right direction. While some advanced economies are enacting large-scale policy measures, emerging economies – which will account for a larger share of future demand for industrial products and transport services – will need help accessing low-emission technologies and solutions.



The report also calls for industrial sectors to focus on the following five areas, and details specific actions for each of the sectors as part of its individual scorecard:



<ul>
<li>Technology&nbsp;– Prioritize clean power technology across most sectors, commercially scale CCUS in cement, and improve technology to reduce costs for clean hydrogen development.</li>



<li>Infrastructure&nbsp;– Promote shared infrastructure, such as industrial hubs and clusters.</li>



<li>Demand&nbsp;– Create a standardized framework for low-emissions products, a simple emissions-intensity calculator and an auditable carbon-footprint assessment process, improving consumer transparency.</li>



<li>Policy&nbsp;– Align on emissions reduction requirements globally, with policies customized to suit individual country needs and enhance market transparency to increase emission intensity visibility.</li>



<li>Capital&nbsp;– Improve transparency for low-emissions and low-carbon alternatives, strengthen demand signals and reduce capital expenditures through shared infrastructure development.</li>
</ul>



“The Net-Zero Tracker 2023 explores in detail how low-carbon solutions and infrastructure will contribute to increasing the pace of decarbonization in hard-to-abate industries,” said Stephanie Jamison, Accenture’s global Resources industry practice lead and global sustainability services lead. “This depth is essential to help companies create sustainable value and impact as they strive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.”

power-station-pollution-energy-electricity

Net-Zero Industry Tracker: $13.5 Trillion Investment Needed to Fast-Track Decarbonization of Key Hard-to-Abate Industry Sectors 

As the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) approaches, <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6341616411112/managing-climate-risks-ahead-of-cop28/">South African banks are being put to the test to see how effectively they manage climate risks</a>. A recent report by Just Share, an NGO focused on climate change, reveals the progress made by the country&#8217;s big five banks in addressing climate risks but also highlights the need for further action.



Just Share has been analyzing and engaging with South African banks for the past five years, examining their commitment to fighting climate change. The goal of the report was to provide customers with the tools to assess the banks&#8217; actions in relation to climate change.



The report assessed the banks across 20 indicators and established a rigorous methodology for the analysis. While the overall findings showed some progress, with none of the banks doing enough, the highest scoring bank received a score of only 60 percent.



One key finding of the report was the impact of governance on climate risk management. Banks with better climate competence on their boards tended to perform better across all indicators. This highlights the importance of having relevant expertise and minimizing climate conflicts within the boardroom.



Emma Schuster, Senior Climate Risk Analyst at Just Share, stated, &#8220;The overall thing is that the banks are making some progress, but they have a long way to go to properly align their climate integration with their commitments and with the goals of the Paris Agreement.&#8221;



The report also pointed out the banks&#8217; lack of progress in recognizing and acting on climate risks related to fossil gas. Schuster argued against the argument that increased investment in fossil fuels would benefit development outcomes in South Africa. She emphasized that South Africa has a high emissions profile and a high rate of inequality, and investing in fossil fuels is not the solution to these issues.



Schuster also highlighted the opportunity for South Africa to transition to cleaner and more inclusive energy systems. The falling costs of renewable energy and the global transition away from fossil fuel-based economies present a huge opportunity for the country to reimagine and revitalize its energy sector.



While acknowledging the exposure of South African banks to fossil fuels due to the structure of the country&#8217;s economy, the report emphasized the importance of an orderly and just transition away from fossil fuels. It called on banks to plan and prepare for the future, taking into account the needs of workers and communities dependent on fossil fuel systems.



The findings of the report provide valuable insights for customers looking to assess the climate risk management of South African banks. With COP28 just around the corner, the report serves as a reminder of the importance of addressing climate risks and aligning actions with global goals. It is a call to action for banks to prioritize climate risk management and contribute to a sustainable and just future.

FILE PHOTO: Bonn Climate Change Conference in Germany

South African Banks Making Progress in Climate Risk Management but Still Have a Long Way to Go, Says Just Share Report

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428955" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/546MOFRIYJJINKF26GSAMYOGXY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">NAIROBI, KENYA &#8211; OCTOBER 31: William Ruto, President of the Republic of Kenya, gives a speech a State Banquet at State House, along with distinguished guests from Kenya and the United Kingdom on October 31, 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya. Chris Jackson/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Negotiators working on the world&#8217;s first treaty to curb plastic pollution need to hurry up and strike a deal, Kenyan&nbsp;President William Ruto said on Monday at the start of talks in Nairobi.



The world produces about 400 million metric tonnes of plastic waste annually&nbsp;and less than 10% of it is recycled, according to the&nbsp;U.N.&nbsp;Environment Programme.



At least 14 million metric tonnes ends up in the ocean every year, the International Union for Conservation of Nature says, while more piles up in landfills.



International delegates meeting in the Kenyan capital Nairobi for the third round of talks will consider a list of possible measures to include in the treaty.



&#8220;I urge all the negotiators to recall that 2024 is only six weeks away and (there) are only two other meetings to go,&#8221; Ruto said at the opening of the talks.



Governments agreed in March 2022 to put together a treaty on controlling plastic pollution by the end of next year.



In Nairobi,&nbsp;delegates will be haggling over whether to stick to their broad mandate of addressing the entire life cycle of plastics, including production, or to&nbsp;prioritise&nbsp;plastic waste management.



The talks need to come up with a first draft agreement, outlining commitments to reducing the plastic menace, and a financing scheme for its implementation, said Carroll Muffett, president of the Centre for International Environmental law.



&#8220;We need to navigate extraordinary risks over the week ahead,&#8221; he said, citing attempts to derail and delay the talks by some members states in previous rounds.



Kenya is among those who want a strong, binding agreement on the manufacture and use of plastics, having&nbsp;enacted several laws banning certain uses of plastics, such as for shopping bags, since 2017.



&#8220;We must change the way we consume, the way we produce and how we dispose our waste,&#8221; Ruto said. &#8220;Change is inevitable. This instrument that we are working on, is the first domino in that change. Let us bring it home.&#8221;



The plastics&nbsp;industry and oil and petrochemical exporters like Saudi Arabia do not want plastic use curtailed, arguing that the global deal should promote improved&nbsp;the&nbsp;recycling and reuse of plastic.



&#8220;The vast majority of countries are eager to advance the negotiations to get the job done,&#8221; said Pamela Miller, Co-Chair of the International Pollutants Elimination Network, a global public interest organization.



&#8220;On the other hand a small group of like-minded countries of mainly major fossil fuel, petrochemical and plastic exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia are actively attempting to take us backwards.&#8221;



Saudi and Russian delegates were not immediately available to comment.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; additional reporting by Gloria Dickie in London; editing by Hugh Lawson and Mark Heinrich)

Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla Visit Kenya

Kenya president urges progress on global treaty against plastic pollution

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="768" height="512" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IFC-World-Bank-edited.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428524" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IFC-World-Bank-edited.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IFC-World-Bank-edited-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/IFC-World-Bank-edited-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">IFC World Bank Photo: via Flickr</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging markets will need $1.5 trillion in investment before 2035 to make new and existing buildings environmentally friendly and avoid a jump in climate-damaging emissions, a top economist at the World Bank&#8217;s private finance arm told Reuters.



Of that $1.5 trillion, China accounts for $1.33 trillion, reflecting its size and urbanisation, and Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, Europe and Africa most of the rest, the International Finance Corporation said in a new report.



The funds would be used for investments in electrification of older inefficient buildings with cleaner energy, and the construction of energy-efficient new buildings, with low- emission material.



The construction industry globally generates about two-fifths of all carbon emissions and that number is rising amid a building boom, making it central to efforts to curb carbon emissions and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.



Speaking ahead of the release of the IFC&#8217;s report on Wednesday suggesting ways to accelerate efforts, Susan Lund, Vice President for Economics and Private Sector Development, said there were &#8220;low-hanging fruit&#8221; technologies to cut emissions.



Adopting them could reduce construction-related emissions 13% from current levels, or 23% below where they would otherwise be, IFC said the report.



More than half the reductions would come from emerging markets, through solutions such as powering buildings using cleaner energy, making them more energy-efficient and using low-emission materials in their construction.



While many technologies exist to slash construction-related emissions, Lund said weak policy incentives, limited finance and poor information about energy efficiency have prevented broader adoption in developing countries.



&#8220;They are in the midst of a massive construction boom that is only going to get bigger in the next 10 to 15 years,&#8221; Lund told Reuters.



&#8220;Here is an opportunity to do things differently,&#8221; she said, noting that it was better to build greener buildings today than retrofit later, as happens in richer countries.



Limited information about the efficiency of buildings is a major problem, she said, pointing to 110 countries without energy efficiency building codes.



Unlike other hard-to-abate activities, however, building more responsibly was &#8220;achievable&#8221; and required &#8220;very negligible&#8221; costs to GDP, Lund added, although decarbonising construction value chains fully would be much tougher.



IFC has invested $10 billion into construction projects in the developing world that meet its energy efficiency criteria, while leveraging another $60 billion from investors including development finance institutions and project developers, Lund said.



(Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes and Simon Jessop; Editing by Aurora Ellis)

IFC World Bank Photo: via Flickr

Emerging markets need $1.5 trillion to make buildings greener – World Bank’s IFC

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428117" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LRM74LMDFRIUNMWOPOFH3RBD2U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Wind turbines are seen at the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm, off the coast of the Guerande peninsula in western France, September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Global economic losses could reach $5 trillion under a &#8220;plausible increase&#8221; in extreme weather events linked to climate change that cause crop failures and food and water shortages, insurance marketplace Lloyd&#8217;s of London said on Wednesday.



Lloyd&#8217;s, which carried out the research alongside the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, stressed that its &#8220;systemic risk scenario&#8221;, which models the global economic impact of extreme weather, was hypothetical. But it said the work would improve business and policymaker understanding of their exposure to critical threats such as extreme weather.



When adjusting the estimated $5 trillion in losses over a five-year period for the probability of those extreme weather events occurring, the expected global economic losses were $711 billion, Lloyd&#8217;s said.



&#8220;The global economy is becoming more complex and increasingly subject to systemic threats,&#8221; said Trevor Maynard, Executive Director of Systemic Risks at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies.



He added that the research would &#8220;help businesses and policymakers explore the potential impacts of these scenarios&#8221;.



Lloyd&#8217;s modelled global economic losses of extreme weather events by estimating the impact of food and water shocks on global gross domestic product over a five-year period.



The weighted average loss across the three severities it modelled &#8211; major, severe and extreme &#8211; was $5 trillion over the five years, ranging from $3 trillion in the lowest severity scenario up to $17.6 trillion in the most extreme.



Lloyd&#8217;s also modelled for events concentrated in regions &#8211; it said extreme weather events centred in Greater China would lead to the biggest losses, of $4.6 trillion.



The Caribbean region would lose 19% of its GDP over five years if the extreme weather events were concentrated there, Lloyd&#8217;s estimated.



(Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes; editing by Mark Heinrich)

FILE PHOTO: The Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm

Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trln -Lloyd’s

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-428057" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A woman spreads cocoa beans during the sun-drying process in the backyard of her house in Asikasu, Ghana on December 19, 2020. Cristina Aldehuela | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



El Nino is here to stay — and that’s bad news for cocoa crops which are highly sensitive to weather changes.&nbsp;



Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and climate change hurts cocoa production. Hotter temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns can also damage cocoa pod development and promote the spread of pests and diseases.



According to the the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook, El Nino is expected to last through January to March 2024, with a 71% chance it will intensify from November to January. 



An intensified and frequent El Nino effect could significantly reduce the amount of arable land for cocoa cultivation. This not only poses a threat to food security, but also endangers the livelihoods of farmers, especially those in West African countries, which are most at risk from extreme weather changes.



“El Nino conditions are often historically associated with drier conditions in West Africa where three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is produced,” Jonathan Haines, research director at Gro Intelligence told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-top-cocoa-producers"><a></a>Top cocoa producers</h2>



Cocoa comes from the seed of the cacao tree and is an essential ingredient for chocolates.



But it’s not only used in food and confectionery. Cocoa butter — a byproduct of cocoa processing — is also widely used in the pharmaceutical industry for skincare products and cosmetics.



Africa accounts for nearly 75% of global cocoa production, while the Americas — including Brazil and Ecuador — make up 20%, according to the International Cocoa Organization. Asia-Pacific produces the remaining 5%, with Indonesia and Papua New Guinea being the largest producers in the region.



West Africa’s Cote d’Ivoire — or the Ivory Coast — is the world’s largest cocoa producer, accounting for about 44% of global production, while neighboring Ghana accounts for about 14%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Cost of climate change</h2>



As temperatures soar, more and more suitable cacao cultivation areas will be pushed uphill by 2050, according to Climate.gov, a climate change science and information portal run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.



With the optimal altitude for cacao cultivation expected to rise, cocoa farmers may be forced to move harvests to higher ground.



“Cocoa farmers facing critical decisions may start looking to higher-altitude regions where the weather is more favorable for cocoa cultivation, or some may decide to leave cocoa cultivation altogether,” Kerry Daroci, the cocoa sector lead at the Rainforest Alliance, told CNBC.



The financial damage of climate change can be extremely costly, especially since top cocoa-producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia, are vulnerable to extreme weather conditions.



According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a high intensity El Nino may result in severe economic disruption across Africa. Businesses in the agricultural sector are also at risk from an increase in farm input prices that can drive up overhead costs.



The financial cost of El Nino and climate change remains unquantified for Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana. However, as profits from cocoa make up 70% to 100% of Ghanaian cocoa producers’ income, any decline in yields will have a substantial impact on their livelihoods, said Daroci from the Rainforest Alliance.



West African producers aren’t the only ones impacted.



“In Indonesia, climate change is reducing productivity by approximately 50%, leading to an estimated loss of $666 per hectare, affecting up to one million hectares,” Daroci added. 



As it stands, cocoa prices have already surged to “high premiums,”&nbsp;according to the International Cocoa Organization.



At the end of August, cocoa futures settled at $3,730 per tonne in London, and $3,633 per tonne in New York, ICCO’s latest data showed. That’s a 78% jump from $2,095 per tonne in London a year ago and a nearly 50% year-on-year surge from $2,427 per tonne in New York.



“This represents the highest nearby contract price for the 2022/23 season,” the report said.



Prices of cocoa are at their highest in 50 years, according to a Reuters report.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Adaptation and mitigation</h2>



Climate change is not a new phenomenon, but the impact of an intensified El Nino&nbsp;this year has made it more&nbsp;urgent to stem its adverse impact on cocoa production.



“We have reached a juncture in the climate crisis where harm reduction is no longer enough,” said Daroci.



Agricultural adaptation and mitigation efforts are some ways to tackle specific climate threats — but they&nbsp;can be&nbsp;costly.



Climate adaptation refers to adjusting processes and structures to prevent or minimize potential damages caused by climate change. Mitigation involves lessening the impact of climate change by cutting down on emissions of greenhouse gases.



“Research indicates that investments in these initiatives must triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2050,” Daroci said. “This would result in a total investment of up to $8.1 trillion over time, with an annual investment rate of $536 billion in the future.”



“Despite the urgent need to invest in nature-based solutions, a significant funding gap remains,” she added.



Separately, a report by the Environmental Protection Agency — an independent agency of the U.S. government responsible for environmental protection matters — underscored financing as a key challenge to investing in adaptation in Ghana.



“The understanding of climate change in main cocoa producing countries like West Africa and Indonesia, is very rudimentary,”&nbsp;Steffany Bermudez, policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Helping cocoa farmers</h2>



Additionally, adaptation methods often do not have immediate returns, and that deters financial institutions from investing in these areas.&nbsp;



“Private sector capital can be instrumental in the adoption of actions to adapt to climate change,” Bermudez said, adding that support from the private sector can be “a bridge for engagement with key financiers to build the sector’s resilience.”



Projects and initiatives organized by non-profit organizations can also help alleviate the financial burden on cocoa farmers learning to adapt to climate change.



The Rainforest Alliance, a non-governmental organization, started the Restore project — or Resilient Ecosystems and Transforming Rural Cocoa Economies, in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.



The project has set aside $7 million&nbsp;to help&nbsp;15,000 farmers manage 50,000 hectares of farmland, and aims to expand tree cover in cocoa production landscapes across the two countries.&nbsp;



Even though the challenges for cocoa farmers are mounting, there could be some reprieve.&nbsp;



Cocoa cultivation may fare better than expected this year, as higher levels of&nbsp;rain&nbsp;ease the impact of elevated droughts from El Nino,&nbsp;Haines from Gro Intelligence said.



“Precipitation in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana has actually been very strong in 2023 … In Ghana, rainfall in cocoa areas is at its highest level since at least 2001 by a strong margin,”&nbsp;Haines told CNBC.



— CNBC’s Joanna Tan contributed to this report.

107306302-1695688601427-gettyimages-1230255793-AFP_8XJ9FN

Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428034" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6BYMQV5NTVPC5PJOUE3NMDV6TM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Angolan Finance Minister Vera Daves De Sousa speaks during an interview with Reuters at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in Marrakech, Morocco October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Susana Vera</figcaption></figure>



MARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 9 (Reuters) &#8211; Angola may slow the removal of fuel subsidies to avoid a repeat of protests in June over a near-doubling in petrol prices in which at least five people were killed, the southern African country&#8217;s finance minister said on Monday.



No decision has been made yet in ongoing internal discussions on whether to extend the end-2025 deadline for phasing out the subsidies, Vera Daves de Sousa told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank&#8217;s Annual Meetings.



Squeezed by soaring debt costs and high pump prices, governments across Africa are trying to dismantle the costly benefits, but the moves are proving unpopular and have also sparked discontent in countries including Senegal and Nigeria.



&#8220;We are learning the lessons from the first movement (in fuel prices), where society reacted with shock,&#8221; Daves de Sousa said.



Angola spent 1.9 trillion kwanza ($2.3 billion) on fuel subsidies in 2022, more than 40% of what the IMF estimated it spent on social programmes.



Economic growth is likely to be just 1.09% this year, down from a forecast of 3.3% in the 2023 budget, due to low oil production meaning the oil sector is shrinking, Daves de Sousa said, adding that the forecast was 1.5% for 2024.



The 2023 budget had been prepared with oil production of 1.1 million barrels per day in mind, but it is currently averaging between 1 and 1.1 million, she said, adding that the assumption for the 2024 budget would be less than the previous budget&#8217;s.



Stabilising oil production will also help Angola&#8217;s debt position, Daves de Sousa said. About 20% of its debt is collateralised, including 80% of its debt to Chinese lenders, which account for about a third, she said.



There are currently no plans to tap international capital markets, Daves de Sousa said. Most of Angola&#8217;s overseas dollar bonds currently yield more than 13%.&nbsp;XS1819680288=TEUS035198AE02=TE



&#8220;More comfortable is something around 5 and 6 (%), but we know we are quite far from that,&#8221; she said.



The planned privatisation of state-oil firm Sonangol has been delayed due to ongoing corruption-related lawsuits aimed at recovering assets, Daves de Sousa said, with the aim now to sell less than half of the company in 2025.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage, editing by Jorgelina do Rosario and Sharon Singleton)

Angolan Finance Minister Vera Daves De Sousa speaks at interview with Reuters during International Monetary Fund and the World Bank meeting in Marrakech

Angola mulls slowing fuel subsidy removal after protests – finance minister

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="582" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-820x582.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427976" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-820x582.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-300x213.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-127x90.jpg 127w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-768x545.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-1536x1090.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/E5TVBXLE5ROQHIYT3CWNEDQRRM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A general view shows the plenary hall during an international replenishment conference for the United Nations Green Climate Fund in Bonn, Germany, October 5, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay</figcaption></figure>



BERLIN/BRUSSELS, Oct 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United Nations&#8217; main fund for helping vulnerable countries cope with climate change said on Thursday it had raised $9.3 billion, falling short of a $10 billion target after wealthy nations, including the United States, failed to pay in.



The amount represents just a fraction of the $200 billion &#8211; $250 billion that developing countries will need every year by 2030 to adapt to climate change, according to an estimate given Wednesday in a U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change report that showed how the costs of preparing for climate impacts and the damages from extreme weather events continue to mount.



With the U.N.&#8217;s COP28 climate summit set to begin in less than two months in Dubai, pressure is ramping up for wealthy governments to make good on promises to help developing countries prepare for and cope with climate change.



A climate funding conference in Bonn, Germany, on Thursday saw a handful of countries add cash to the Green Climate Fund – the U.N.&#8217;s main funding arm for dispersing climate finance.



Among those donating were Japan, which said it would contribute up to 165 billion yen ($1.11 billion) over 2024-2027, and Norway, which offered around $300 million.



There were no new funding pledges made from the world’s top two polluters, the United States and China.



A U.S. representative said the country was not in a position to pledge due to uncertainty in its domestic budget process, but was &#8220;working on&#8221; an announcement. China, meanwhile, has yet to agree to join wealthy countries in providing climate finance through the U.N. system.



Australia, Italy, and Sweden said they also were also working on contributions, but did not make pledges on Thursday. The Green Climate Fund (GCF)&nbsp;is aiming to exceed the $10 billion in contributions it raised in its last three-year round.



Mahmoud Mohieldin, the fund&#8217;s facilitator said he expects the top-up to comfortably surpass the last contribution round once the countries that promised funds announce their pledges.



&#8220;If these countries just came with what is expected and some of them of what they contributed last time with a slight increase &#8230; we&#8217;ll be in that safe zone,&#8221; Mohieldin told Reuters on Thursday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-we-are-still-waiting">&#8216;WE ARE STILL WAITING&#8217;</h2>



Germany, Britain, France and Japan are the biggest backers so far of the UN fund, which was set up to channel money to help poorer nations meet their targets to reduce CO2 emissions, develop clean energy and adjust to a warming world.



&#8220;I also increasingly see countries that are not traditional donors as having responsibility: for example the Gulf states, which have become rich from fossil fuels, or emerging countries like China,” German Development Minister Svenja Schulze said at the conference.



But GCF&#8217;s Mohieldin said the Gulf countries should be encouraged and incentivized to contribute rather than pressured, citing the fund&#8217;s mandate where developed countries voluntarily offered their commitment without pressure based on the Common but Differentiated Responsibility principle.



&#8220;China has its own way of doing business &#8230; But I&#8217;m not expecting China to contribute in this cycle,&#8221; he added.



The UN&#8217;s official list of nations that should provide climate finance &#8211; which dates back to 1992 &#8211; includes only a few dozen wealthy countries.



The issue of climate funding is set to dominate this year&#8217;s UN COP28 climate summit, which begins in November in Dubai.



There, countries plan to launch a new international fund dedicated to supporting vulnerable nations where climate change is causing irreversible damage. Traditional donors, including European nations and the United States want a bigger pool of countries to pay in.



David Ryfisch climate policy expert at campaign group Germanwatch said the Green Climate Fund tally on Thursday was disappointing and a &#8220;poor signal&#8221; ahead of COP28.



&#8220;Climate finance in general is a big trust enabler or also trust eroder when it comes to the climate negotiations,&#8221; he said.



Hanging over this year&#8217;s UN climate talks is a still-unmet pledge that rich nations made in 2009, to by 2020 deliver $100 billion in climate finance each year. Countries have said they expect to be able to meet it this year.



&#8220;We are still waiting for delivery of the $100 billion per year promise of climate finance,&#8221; said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, chair of the Least Developed Countries group in UN climate negotiations, adding that in the group&#8217;s view, success at COP28 will hinge on countries launching and putting money into the new climate damages fund.



&#8220;An empty loss and damage fund won&#8217;t do anything for our people,&#8221; she said.



($1 = 148.9700 yen)



(Reporting by Riham Alkousaa and Kate Abnett; Editing by Susan Fenton, Katy Daigle, Mark Potter and Aurora Ellis)

International replenishment conference for the United Nations Green Climate Fund in Bonn

Shortfall in climate change cash grows ahead of COP28

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-427512" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are shown at the Enterprise Sealy Station on August 28, 2023 in Sealy, Texas. Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices climbed to their highest level of the year this week, extending a rally that has put a return to $100 a barrel sharply into focus.



Indeed, some analysts believe crude prices could hit this milestone before year-end.



International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $93.90 a barrel on Friday morning in London, around 0.2% higher. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $90.41, almost 0.3% higher for the session.



Both Brent and WTI settled at their highest respective levels of the year on Thursday. The oil contracts are sharply higher month-to-date and remain firmly on track to notch their third consecutive positive week.



The price rally comes amid growing expectations of tighter supply after Saudi Arabia and Russia moved to draw down global inventories and extend their oil output cuts through to the end of the year.



OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Sept. 5 that it would extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through to year-end, with non-OPEC leader Russia pledging to reduce oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. Both countries have said they will review their voluntary cuts on a monthly basis.



Analysts at Bank of America have indicated they now believe oil prices could soon spike beyond triple digits.



“Should OPEC+ maintain the ongoing supply cuts through year-end against Asia’s positive demand backdrop, we now believe Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl before 2024,” analysts led by Francisco Blanch said Tuesday in a research note.



Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said a jump toward the $100 milestone was “plausible,” citing production constraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia, upcoming refinery maintenance, the structural shortage of diesel in Europe and a growing consensus that the current cycle of tightening will soon come to an end.



“Nonetheless, such a rally also entails renewed inflationary pressure,” Varga told CNBC on Friday. This was reflected, he said, in this week’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/cpi-inflation-report-august-2023-.html">U.S. inflation data</a>&nbsp;and the rise in consumer spending, which indicated that interest rates&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/the-latest-inflation-uptick-means-the-fed-will-likely-raise-rates-.html">may stay higher for longer</a>&nbsp;and could have a negative impact on both economic and oil demand growth.



“For this reason, I believe that any spike towards $100 will be short-lived,” he added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-significant-supply-shortfall"><a></a>‘A significant supply shortfall’</h2>



The International Energy Agency&nbsp;<a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2023" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">warned</a>&nbsp;on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production constraints would likely result in a “substantial market deficit” through the fourth quarter.



The world’s leading energy authority said in its monthly oil report that output curbs by OPEC and non-OPEC members of over 2.5 million barrels per day since the start of the year had so far been offset by members outside the OPEC+ alliance — such as the U.S. and Brazil.



“From September onwards, the loss of OPEC+ production, led by Saudi Arabia, will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” the IEA said.



Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy and head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at JPMorgan, said he believes the price of oil is likely to trade in a range of $80 to $100 in the short term — and at around $80 over the long term.



“As we go into next year, it will be very dependent on how we see China evolve … what does the US do? And how does shale respond?” Malek said Monday, noting the U.S. appears to have limited options if it is to try to drive oil and gasoline prices lower ahead of next year’s pivotal presidential election.



“I think for us one of the important data points for this year as a whole is that we tested $70. You have to test the marginal costs, we can all predict it, and we got there. We got to $70, and it bounced off so with that marginal cost, we’re looking at a much higher long-term price,” he added.



Not everyone believes oil prices are destined for an imminent return to $100, however. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the crude sector looks increasingly overbought in the near-term and appears in need of a pullback.



“We do not join the $100 per barrel camp but will not rule out a relatively short period where Brent could trade above $90,” Hansen said in a research note published Sept. 8.



“From a technical perspective, Brent has been in a bullish uptrend since July and needs to hold support at $89 as a break may trigger long liquidation towards $87.5 from traders who bought the production cut extension news,” he added.



“However, the medium-term uptrend is still firm with trendline support near $85, potentially being the bottom of a new higher range supported by OPEC’s active management of supply.”



— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

107301361-1694772546411-gettyimages-1645429909-01-dji_fly_20230819_001040_826_1692423298462_photo-_sbqq89ar

Oil just hit its highest level of the year — and some analysts expect a return to $100 before 2024

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427502" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ZXQCQVYMLZJNHMGOSI3OKPBANA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A banner reads &#8220;End Fossil Fuels&#8221; at the Bonn Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, June 8, 2023. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



BRUSSELS, Sept 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Climate protesters were set to take to the streets in more than 50 countries from Friday to Sunday, in a weekend of demonstrations to demand that governments phase out the burning of fossil fuels heating the planet.



In a year of mounting deaths and economic destruction from record-breaking floods,&nbsp;wildfires and drought, protesters have planned more than 500 gatherings in 54 countries &#8211; from Pakistan and Nigeria to the United States.



Organizers of the protests expect global turnout over the weekend to total more than a million people. That could make this weekend&#8217;s action the largest international climate protest since before the COVID-19 pandemic, when the &#8220;school strike&#8221; movement led by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg saw millions of people worldwide join marches.



&#8220;This is directed at world leaders,&#8221; said Mitzi Jonelle Tan, a climate activist with youth movement Fridays for Future in Manila, the Philippines.



&#8220;The fossil fuel industry&#8217;s time is up. We need a just transition, and we need to phase out the fossil fuels causing the destruction of our environment,&#8221; she told Reuters.



Organisers said they would call on governments to immediately end subsidies for oil and gas and to cancel any plans for expanding production.



Governments spent a record-high $7 trillion in subsidies to oil, gas and coal last year, according to an IMF analysis.



&#8220;We&#8217;re taking to the streets to demand that African leaders phase out on fossil fuels and focus on investing in community-led renewable energy, to meet the energy demand for the 600 million Africans who do not have access to electricity,&#8221; said Eric Njuguna, a climate activist based in Nairobi, Kenya.



The demonstrations take place two months before this year&#8217;s U.N. COP28 climate summit, where more than 80 countries plan to push for a global agreement to gradually phase out coal, oil and gas.



The burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of climate change, but countries have never agreed in U.N. climate talks to phase out fossil fuels &#8211; though they have committed to phase down use of coal power.



Governments reliant on oil and gas revenues, and those planning to use fossil fuel-based energy to improve poor communities&#8217; living standards, are expected to push back on the proposal.



Wealthy nations will also face pressure to offer far more funding to help developing countries invest in low-carbon energy.



Renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels in terms of its running costs, but communities need support to make the upfront investments required to quickly build wind farms and install solar panels.



Despite having plentiful solar energy resources, Africa received only 2% of global investments in renewable energy over the last two decades, the International Renewable Energy Agency has said.



Around 15,000 people were expected to join a march in New York on Sunday, as leaders gather for next week&#8217;s U.N. General Assembly, as well as a &#8220;climate ambition summit&#8221; on Wednesday. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres is expected to ask governments to strengthen their plans for cutting planet-warming emissions.



A U.N. report last week warned that the world was on a dangerous track toward severe global warming, and said more action was needed on all fronts, including a drastic drop in coal-fuelled power use by 2030.



The report also urged a massive boost in financial investment to developing countries for both clean energy and measures to adapt to rising heat, worsening storms and other consequences of the warming climate, the U.N. said.



(Reporting by Kate Abnett; editing by Katy Daigle and Aurora Ellis)

Global climate protests demand world leaders phase out fossil fuels

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME-820x546.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/BKTZZ6PC3VJHHMHWRPAKI7PIME.jpg 919w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People walk through debris after a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Libya, in Derna, Libya, September 12, 2023 in this still image from video obtained from social media. ALI M. BOMHADI/via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



NEAR DERNA, Libya, Sept 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A desperate search for thousands of people missing after catastrophic flooding in the Libyan city of Derna entered its third day on Wednesday, with thousands already confirmed dead and the toll expected to rise.



The flood was caused by a powerful storm that burst dams nearby, unleashing a torrent of water that has devastated a quarter or more of the Mediterranean city, washing away buildings along with their residents.



Officials in eastern Libya say the death toll so far stands at more than 5,000. A hospital director in the city told Reuters on Monday 1,700 bodies had been counted at his hospital, and that 500 more had been buried in another part of the city.



Some 10,000 people are estimated to be missing. Many are believed to have been swept out to sea.



Reuters journalists who visited Derna on Tuesday saw many bodies laid out on the ground in hospital corridors and people seeking to identify missing relatives as more dead were brought in.



One Derna resident, Mustafa Salem, told Reuters he had so far lost 30 members of his family.



Aid convoys and trucks carrying bulldozers were headed towards the city on Wednesday.



The flood unleashed enormous destruction, flipping and mangling cars and leaving Derna&#8217;s streets covered in rubble, mud and debris.



Satellite photographs of the city from before and after the disaster show that what had been a relatively narrow waterway through the city centre was now several times wider, with all the buildings that had run along it gone.



Extensive damage, with buildings missing, is also clearly visible in other parts of the city where flood waters broke out from the waterway.



Rescue operations are complicated by Libya being politically fractured.



The internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) is based in Tripoli, in the west. Derna is in an eastern area where a parallel administration operates, and where control is wielded by commander Khalifa Haftar&#8217;s Libyan National Army.



Libya&#8217;s Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, head of the Tripoli-based government, said on Tuesday the floods were an unprecedented catastrophe. Libya&#8217;s Presidential Council head Mohammed al-Menfi has called for national unity.



The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said emergency response teams had been mobilised to help on the ground. Governments including Qatar and Turkey have rushed aid to Libya.



(Writing by Tom Perry and Angus McDowall; Editing by John Stonestreet and Peter Graff)

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Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

Angola mulls slowing fuel subsidy removal after protests – finance minister

Shortfall in climate change cash grows ahead of COP28

Oil just hit its highest level of the year — and some analysts expect a return to $100 before 2024

Global climate protests demand world leaders phase out fossil fuels

Huge death toll from Libyan storm expected to climb

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Energy, Environment & Climate Change

China could drive Africa’s renewable energy revolution, report says

Hottest year on record puts Earth in touching distance of critical warming threshold, scientists say

COP28 calls for adapting to warmer world without resolving how to pay

Climate finance takes centre stage at COP28 climate talks

COP28 President highlights Africa’s progress in energy transition at Climate Conference

A showdown is brewing over money, oil and carbon. Here’s what’s at stake at the COP28 climate summit

Net-Zero Industry Tracker: $13.5 Trillion Investment Needed to Fast-Track Decarbonization of Key Hard-to-Abate Industry Sectors

South African Banks Making Progress in Climate Risk Management but Still Have a Long Way to Go, Says Just Share Report

Kenya president urges progress on global treaty against plastic pollution

Emerging markets need $1.5 trillion to make buildings greener – World Bank’s IFC

Global economic losses from extreme weather could hit $5 trln -Lloyd’s

Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on

Angola mulls slowing fuel subsidy removal after protests – finance minister

Shortfall in climate change cash grows ahead of COP28

Oil just hit its highest level of the year — and some analysts expect a return to $100 before 2024

Global climate protests demand world leaders phase out fossil fuels

Huge death toll from Libyan storm expected to climb

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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