LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy could shrink by more than 14% this year and government borrowing risks approaching 400 billion pounds ($500 billion) if there is lasting damage from the coronavirus, government budget forecasters warned on Tuesday.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said its central scenario, with only moderate scarring, showed a 12.4% fall in output, with a 14.3% decline if scarring is deeper.

Under an ‘upside scenario’ – which it said was an update of the sole scenario it presented in April – output would fall by 10.6%, while government borrowing would be limited to 263 billion pounds.