<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="648" height="338" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575896" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS.jpeg 648w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS-300x156.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS-160x83.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Railway builders erect a box girder at the site of the standard project in front of the Huning section of the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hefei high-speed railway in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, China, on January 10, 2025.  Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



China’s economic activity accelerated more than expected in the final three months of 2024 as stimulus measures kicked in, allowing Beijing to meet its annual growth target.



China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.4% in the fourth quarter, beating Reuters-polled economists’ estimates of a 5.0% growth, and outpacing the 4.6% in the third quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, 5.3% in the first quarter.



That last-quarter sprint helped lift China’s full-year GDP growth to 5.0% in 2024, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, in line with the official target of “around 5%.”



“The shift of policy stance in September last year helped the economy to stabilize in Q4, but it requires large and persistent policy stimulus to boost economic momentum and sustain the recovery,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist, Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.



Last year’s growth was slower compared with the 5.4% rise in 2023, post-pandemic. As part of an annual revision to preliminary figures, the statistics bureau in late December revised the 2023 GDP growth to 7.4%, according to a CNBC calculation of the official data.



In December, retail sales jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of 3.5%. Industrial output expanded 6.2% from a year earlier, versus expectations of 5.4%, underscoring China’s imbalance between domestic production and weak demand.



The full-year fixed asset investment rose 3.2% in 2024, shy of the projected 3.3% increase in a Reuters poll, as real estate investment drag steepened to a 10.6% drop, compared with the January to November period.



Kang Yi, head of the statistics bureau, said real estate was recovering. The sector’s drag on economic growth had narrowed, he said, while the role of new growth drivers, such as in digital tech, was expanding.&nbsp;



The urban unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.1% in December from 5.0% in the prior month.



Disposable income for urban residents grew by 4.4%, slower than the overall economic growth, while that of rural residents increased by 6.3% in 2024.



Mainland China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index reversed course to edge up 0.31%, following the upbeat data. Chinese offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.3398 per U.S. dollar, while the benchmark 10-year government bond yield dropped 2 basis points to 1.638, according to the LSEG data.



“The stock market’s moderate response to today’s data release reflects investor caution as they await further policy clarity after the Chinese New Year,” said Chaoping Zhu, Shanghai-based global market strategist at J.P. Morgan asset management.



“There is room for domestic consumers and business confidence to rebound with the right policies in place,” Zhu added, stressing that “policy consistency and coordination will be crucial.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-growth-demographic-concerns"><a></a>Growth, demographic concerns</h2>



However, some economists made the case that China’s economic recovery may not be as rosy as the headline figures suggest.&nbsp;



Despite the accelerated growth in real GDP figures, China’s economy saw deflation persisting for the seventh straight quarter, Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie said in a note.



Hu remained skeptical of China’s ability to achieve higher inflation. “We don’t bet against policymakers’ will and ability to deliver 5% real GDP growth in 2025, but can they achieve higher inflation? It will largely depend on the fiscal and housing stimulus, which is key to boosting domestic demand.”



China’s consumer inflation has remained barely above zero, while wholesale prices fell for a 27th consecutive month in December, official data showed last week.



Statistics bureau head Kang reiterated Friday Beijing’s priority this year was to boost consumption, while acknowledging that consumers’ ability to spend was still weak.



This year,&nbsp;the “unfavorable impact of external factors may deepen,” he flagged.



Friday’s data comes just days before Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as the next U.S. president on Jan. 20. Trump has said that soon after taking office, he plans to impose additional tariffs of at least 10% on Chinese goods. He has also appointed some China hawks to key cabinet posts.



The growth momentum, buoyed by a surge in exports, may be sustained into the first quarter this year, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank. But it is likely to weigh on GDP growth in the second half-year, “regardless of Trump’s tariffs,” given that foreign importers have amassed ample stockpiles, she added.



The data released Friday indicated that “domestic growth engines remain soft as retail sales growth responded marginally to trade-in subsidies,” Tay said, pointing to sluggish consumer spending.



The national population&nbsp;declined to 1.408 billion in 2024, dropping by 1.39 million from 2023, according to the statistics bureau. It had declined by 2.08 million people in 2023 from the prior year.



The fall in population, despite a rebound in birth rates, reflects a deepening demographic crisis, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economic Intelligence Unit, stressing that the death rate in China had ticked up to 7.76% last year from 7.1% before the pandemic.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Stimulus boost</h2>



China has been striving to boost economic growth and has taken several measures towards this end, as a real estate slump and uncertainty about future income has continued to weigh down consumer spending and business confidence, adding to deflation concerns.



Since late September, Chinese authorities have called for halting the real estate decline, cut interest rates and announced a five-year fiscal package worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to ease local governments’ financing crisis. Beijing has also expanded a program for consumers to trade-in used cars and home appliances, and buy new ones at a discount.



“They are betting on a substantial infusion of policy stimulus and reforms to turbo boost the country’s economy in 2025, invigorating domestic demand and warding off disinflationary loom,” said Bruce Pang, distinguished senior research fellow at the National Institution for Finance and Development.



Top leaders have pledged “proactive” fiscal measures and a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance for the current year. Some analysts expect stimulus might start to take effect this year, but it will take longer to see a significant impact.



The government is expected to reveal the official growth targets for 2025 and additional stimulus measures at the annual parliamentary meetings in March. Economists expect Beijing to keep its GDP growth target for 2025 at around 5%, if not slightly lower.

108087533-1737021407372-gettyimages-2192558603-cfoto-shanghai250110_npafS

China’s fourth-quarter GDP grows at 5.4%, beating market expectations as stimulus measures kick in

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="487" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/rand2-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-568119" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/rand2-1.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/rand2-1-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/rand2-1-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">South African bank notes featuring an image of former South African President Nelson Mandela are displayed at an office in Johannesburg, File. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 17 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s rand strengthened in cautious trade on Friday, as investor focus shifted towards U.S. President-elect Donald Trump&#8217;s inauguration on Monday.



At 0808 GMT, the rand traded at 18.755 against the dollar, about 0.4% stronger than its previous close.



&#8220;Trump&#8217;s policies and U.S. Treasury movements will dominate sentiment in the short term, with limited market activity expected until after his inauguration,&#8221; said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.



A sturdy labour market, sticky inflation and uncertainty over the potential impact of Trump&#8217;s tariffs and tax plans have led the U.S. Federal Reserve to project two interest rate cuts this year.



However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday three or four rate cuts are still possible if economic data weakens further.



On the stock market, South Africa&#8217;s Top-40 index was up about 0.6%.



Its benchmark 2030 government bond also strengthened, with the yield down 5.5 basis points to 9.15%.



(Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov. Editing by Bhargav Acharya and Mark Potter)

rand2 (1)

South African rand firms ahead of Trump inauguration

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575868" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Family photo of leaders taken at the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia on Oct. 24, 2024.  Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a 100% tariff against BRICS nations if they continue to undermine the U.S. dollar — but the threat won’t rein in the group’s expansion, analysts tell CNBC.



Most recently, Brazil announced Indonesia’s admittance into the bloc as a member last Monday.



Under outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration, Washington has been relatively dismissive of the 10-member coalition, with White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby saying during a press briefing last October that the U.S. does not view BRICS — an economic coalition of emerging markets — as a “threat.” Sentiment could change once Trump enters the White House later this month, following early indications that he may impose tariffs on alliance members if they subvert the U.S. dollar.



“A key policy shift with the incoming Trump administration is its explicit treatment of BRICS as an entity,” Mihaela Papas, director of research at the MIT Center for International Studies, told CNBC by email.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-china-will-ease-the-tariff-pain-nbsp"><a></a>China will ease the tariff pain&nbsp;</h2>



Originally established by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, then joined by South Africa in 2010, the Beijing-led BRICS was set up as a force to rival Western dominance on the international stage.&nbsp;



The alliance’s 16th annual summit in Kazan saw Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates officially admitted into the group. According to Russian officials and official paper of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, more than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining the coalition in 2024. CNBC could not independently verify this estimate.



The size of the bloc makes it increasingly unlikely that the U.S. will apply punitive 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, according to Duncan Wrigley, chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Doing so would risk steering nations neutral in the U.S.-China rivalry toward Beijing and interfere with U.S. interests, Wrigley told CNBC by email.



The world’s second-largest economy could even step in to ease the pain of any potential U.S. trade measures against BRICS members, according to David Lubin, senior research fellow at Chatham House.



“From Beijing’s point of view, establishing China as an alternative pillar of global order is a critically important objective and it can’t be met without the support of the developing world,” Lubin said in emailed comments. “And since some 120 countries count China as their main trading partner, this shouldn’t be too difficult.”



China is already starting to do this, putting forward a zero-tariff policy for least developed countries with diplomatic ties with Beijing, which came into effect from December last year and builds on similar measures extended to the least developed African countries.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-dollar-is-king-nbsp"><a></a>Dollar is king&nbsp;</h2>



Trump’s tariff threat is conditional on BRICS dethroning the U.S. dollar as the world’s most widely used trade currency — which could prove to be a tall order for the alliance.



Russia has been pushing for de-dollarization in a bid to sidestep the SWIFT network, a globally recognized standard for bank transactions, and to curtail the impact of U.S sanctions against Moscow. In the Kazan talks, Vladimir Putin reiterated the use of the dollar as a “weapon” and a “big mistake,” The Guardian reports. 



One of the group’s options to topple the dollar was to create a unified BRICS currency — a proposal spearheaded by Brazil, which has yet to gain traction.



Another possibility was setting up multi-currency trade, which is already taking place among several members: some Chinese and Russian trade is being done through the yuan and ruble. Nations have also agreed to continue to strengthen trading through local currencies and expressed support for the idea of an independent cross-border settlement infrastructure for payments.



Chatham House’s Lubin notes that the Chinese currency is “much less useable internationally than dollars,” given that financial markets are largely denominated in the greenback.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-just-a-talking-shop"><a></a>Just a ‘talking shop’</h2>



The lack of a concrete allied strategy and action from BRICS members raises doubts over whether it will be considered a threat to the U.S., with Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Wrigley saying the emerging markets alliance is currently not much more than a “talking shop.”



The bloc is still too loose and unorganized to create any substantive change, with the 2024 Kazan summit resulting in “nothing really concrete”, according to Cecilia Malmström, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.



This might just insulate BRICS members and partner countries from a trade war with the U.S. — which has China as one of its main targets.



While Beijing holds a significant position in the group, there is still much internal caution amongst other member nations over Beijing’s dominance and potential trade imbalances, according to MIT’s Papas.&nbsp;



“Even if China seeks to leverage its position, internal caution among members is likely to remain a limiting factor,” she adds.



Many BRICS members also still maintain their friendly relations with the U.S. as a “crucial trade partner,” Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group told CNBC by email.&nbsp;



“There is no reason to believe members of the bloc would be automatically at economic or geopolitical risk in the case of a trade war between the U.S. and China,” Medeiros says.

108087644-1737033990337-gettyimages-2179804474-AA_24102024_1913709

The BRICS bloc is growing — and Trump’s tariff threat isn’t expected to put off aspiring members

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423556" style="width:840px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IQMT7SFA2RNQLAQHUEOA2VEMMQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Illustration photo shows a two-rand coin above a South African flag April 12, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 15 (Reuters) &#8211; South African assets gained on Wednesday, after a key U.S. inflation report showed consumer prices rose slightly more than expected last month in the world&#8217;s biggest economy.



At 1449 GMT, the rand traded at 18.7550 against the U.S. dollar, about 1% firmer than its previous close.



The dollar last traded about 0.45% weaker against a basket of currencies.



The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% last month while economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.3%. In the 12 months through December, the CPI advanced 2.9%, in line with expectations.



As markets remain wary of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;s policies on tariffs, the latest data points to still elevated inflation, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s cautious stance on interest rates.



&#8220;Volatility is expected to persist&#8230; with the rand&#8217;s value largely influenced by external factors such as U.S. trade and monetary policies,&#8221; said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.



On the stock market, the blue-chip Top-40 index was last up about 1.9%.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was also stronger, with the yield down 13 basis points at 9.175%. 



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya and Tannur Anders; Editing by Frances Kerry and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Illustration photo of South African rand

South African rand, stocks surge after US consumer inflation data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575613" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108042998-1727981319037-gettyimages-2176462447-img_2907_uiod5ijt.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Two women sit on the sidewalk of Qiansimen Jialing River Bridge, decorated with Chinese national flags, on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.  Cheng Xin | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — As promised government support is still to meaningfully kick in, China’s economy hasn’t yet seen the turnaround investors have been waiting for.



While policymakers have, since late September, cut interest rates and announced broad stimulus plans, details on highly anticipated fiscal support won’t likely come until an annual parliamentary meeting in March. Official GDP figures for 2024 are due Friday.



“China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth &#8230; We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges,” BlackRock Investment Institute said in a weekly report Tuesday. The firm, which is modestly overweight Chinese stocks, indicated it was ready to buy more if the circumstances changed.



Of growing urgency in the meantime is the drop in domestic demand, and worries about deflation. Consumer prices barely rose in 2024, up by just 0.5% after excluding volatile food and energy prices. That’s the slowest rise in at least 10 years, according to records available on the Wind Information database.



“Consumer spending remains weak, foreign investment is declining, and some industries face growth pressure,” Yin Yong, Beijing city mayor, said Tuesday in an official annual report.



The capital city targets 2% consumer price inflation for 2025, and aims to bolster tech development. While nationwide economic goals won’t come out until March, senior economic and finance officials have told reporters in the last two weeks that fiscal support is in the works, and issuance of ultra-long bonds to spur consumption would exceed last year’s.



China’s announced stimulus will begin to take effect this year, but it will likely take time to see a significant impact, Mi Yang, head of research for north China at property consultancy JLL, told reporters in Beijing last week.



Pressure on the commercial property market will continue this year, and prices may accelerate their drop before recovering, he said.



Rents in Beijing for high-end offices, called Grade A, fell 16% in 2024 and are expected to drop by nearly 15% this year, with some rentals even nearing 2008 or 2009 levels, according to JLL.



New shopping centers in Beijing opened in 2024 with average occupancy rates of 72% — previously such malls would not be opened if the rate was below 75% or much closer to 100%, JLL said. Within a year, however, the new malls have seen occupancy rates reach 90%, the consultancy said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-home-appliances"><a></a>Home appliances</h2>



Unlike the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, China has not handed out cash to consumers. Instead, Chinese authorities in late July announced 150 billion yuan ($20.46 billion) in ultra-long bonds for trade-in subsidies and another 150 billion yuan for equipment upgrades.



China has already issued 81 billion yuan for this year’s trade-in program, officials said this month. It covers more home appliances, electric cars and an up to 15% discount on smartphones priced at 6,000 yuan or less.



Consumers who buy premium phones tend to upgrade and recycle their devices more frequently than buyers on the lower end of the market, indicating the government may want to encourage a new group to shorten their upgrade cycle, said Rex Chen, CFO of ATRenew, which operates stores for processing smartphones and other secondhand goods.



Chen told CNBC on Monday he expects the trade-in subsidies program can boost recycling transaction volumes of eligible products on the platform by at least 10 percentage points, up from 25% growth in 2024. He also expects the government to carry out a similar trade-in policy for the next few years.



However, it’s less clear whether the trade-in program alone can lead to a sustained recovery in consumer demand.



Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Tuesday that he expects the sales boost to fade by the second half of this year, and that tepid new home sales will limit demand for home appliances.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-real-estate"><a></a>Real estate</h2>



Real estate and related sectors such as construction once accounted for more than a quarter of China’s economy. When central authorities started cracking down on developers’ high debt levels in 2020, that had ripple effects on the economy, alongside the Covid-19 pandemic.



China shifted its stance on real estate in September following a high-level meeting led by President Xi Jinping that called for halting the sector’s decline.



Measures to prop up the sector include using a whitelist process to finish construction on the many apartments that have been sold but yet not been built due to developers’ financial constraints. New apartments in China are typically sold ahead of completion.



Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China at Fitch Ratings, said the real estate market had yet not reached a bottom, and that authorities might provide more direct support. He pointed out that it was difficult for the economy to transition away from real estate, despite China’s wishes to reduce its reliance on the sector for growth.



The government’s latest measures have helped the broader stock market rally, and lifted sentiment slightly.



Sales of new homes in China’s largest cities over the last 30 days have surged by nearly 40% from a year ago, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Jan. 5 report.



But they cautioned that high inventory levels in smaller cities indicate property prices “have further room to fall” and that homebuilding is “likely to remain depressed for years to come.”



In the relatively affluent city of Foshan — near Guangzhou city in southern China — housing inventory could take 20 months to clear in one district, and seven months in another district, according to a 2024 report from Beike Research Institute, a firm affiliated with a major housing sales platform in China.



The city overall saw floor space sold last year fall by 16% to the lowest in 10 years, the report said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-geopolitical-concerns"><a></a>Geopolitical concerns</h2>



Complicating China’s economic challenges are tensions with the U.S. Similar to Washington’s export controls, Beijing has also made efforts to ensure national security by prioritizing domestic players in strategic sectors such as technology.



That stance has pressured an increasing number of European businesses in China to localize — despite added costs and reduced productivity — if they are to retain customers in the country, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report last week.



Official Chinese statements have also emphasized coupling security with development.



A slogan for part of Beijing’s efforts to support growth is an effort to build “security capabilities in key areas,” pointed out Yang Ping, director of the investment research institute within the National Development and Reform Commission. She was speaking at a press event Wednesday.



This year, “boosting consumption has been prioritized ahead of improving investment efficiency,” Yang said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. “Expanding and boosting consumption are the main focus of this year’s policy adjustment.”



She dismissed concerns that the impact of trade-in subsidies on consumption would fade after an initial spike, and indicated more details would emerge after the March parliamentary meeting.

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China’s slowing economy is waiting for more stimulus. Here’s how the country plans to boost growth

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575588" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/107174540-1672936825177-gettyimages-1245949857-Vuk_Valcic_City_of_London_skyline_020123_3.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People walk along Waterloo Bridge past the City of London skyline, the capital’s financial district. U.K.-focused equity funds saw record outflows in 2022. Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. economy grew at a lackluster pace of 0.1% in November, data from the Office of National Statistics showed Thursday.



This compares with the 0.2% month-on-month growth expected by economists polled by Reuters.



Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in October, following a decline of 0.1% in September and growth of 0.2% in August.



The ONS said the slight growth in economic output in November was largely due to growth in the services sector. While meager, the data is the first sign of life in the U.K.’s wider economy for three months.



British Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in a statement after the data Thursday that she was “determined to go further and faster to kickstart economic growth.”



“That means generating investment, driving reform and a relentless commitment to root out waste in public spending, and today I will be pressing regulators on what more they can do to deliver growth,” she said in emailed comments from the Treasury.



The ONS nevertheless said the real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to November, compared with the three months to August.



“Services showed no growth over this three-month period, while production fell by 0.7% and construction grew by 0.2%,” the ONS said in the data release.



The British pound fell 0.2% against the dollar to trade at $1.2214 following the GDP print, which comes as the Bank of England considers whether to lower interest rates at its next meeting on Feb.6.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-next-bank-of-england-move"><a></a>Next Bank of England move</h2>



A cooler-than-expected annual inflation print for December, out Wednesday, fueled broad expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut when the central bank meets.



Such a trim would bring the key interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5% although BOE policymakers will be factoring in inflationary pressures, such as resilient wage growth and uncertainty over Britain’s economic outlook. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.



The Labour government and Treasury have been under pressure in recent weeks amid rising government borrowing costs and questions over their fiscal plans and a higher tax burden on businesses. Both were given something of a reprieve on Wednesday, however, when the latest inflation data showed consumer price growth had cooled more than expected to 2.5% in December,&nbsp;with core price growth slowing further.



The print came in below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who had anticipated the inflation rate would remain unchanged from the 2.6% reading of November.



Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.2% in the twelve months to December, down from 3.5% in November.



The U.K.’s inflation rate had hit a more than three-year low of 1.7% in September, but monthly prices had accelerated since then on the back of higher fuel costs and the price of services.&nbsp;In December, the annual services inflation rate stood at 4.4%, down from 5% in November.



The U.K. economy has found itself in a tight spot of late, with economists voicing concerns over the country’s sluggish growth prospects and worries over headwinds caused by both external factors, such as potential trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, along with internal fiscal and economic challenges that have dogged the Labour government and Treasury since the October budget.



Correction: This article’s headline has been updated to reflect the U.K. economy grew by 0.1% in November. A previous version had misstated the figure.

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UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth in November, below expectations

Why Phoenix Became A Hot Spot For Tech Companies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/IOK54TH7FJKRLMOMWWYDBQD7VM.avif" alt="" class="wp-image-575384"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People shop at Cherries Hypermarket in Abuja, Nigeria March 15, 2022. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Jan 15 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria&#8217;s inflation rate rose for the fourth straight month in December, advancing to 34.80% in annual terms from 34.60% in November, data from the statistics agency showed on Wednesday.



The agency said in a report that the uptick in December was due to increased demand associated with the festive period. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed the most to price pressures.



Inflation rose sharply after President Bola Tinubu devalued the naira currency and cut subsidies in 2023 to try to lift economic growth and shore up public finances.



It started to ease in July last year as the impact of the naira devaluation began to fade, before a series of petrol price increases again spurred inflationary pressures, exacerbating the worst cost of living crisis in decades in Africa&#8217;s most populous nation.



Food inflation was 39.84% year-on-year in December, compared with 39.93% the previous month, due to price rises for items such as yam, sweet potatoes, beer, corn, rice and fish, the National Bureau of Statistics said.



The central bank hiked interest rates six times last year to try to get inflation under control.



Nigeria&#8217;s government expects inflation to fall to 15% this year, helped by lower imports of petroleum products, Tinubu said during a budget speech in December.



(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha and Mohd Shamsuddin. Editing by Alexander Winning and Mark Potter)

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Nigerian inflation rises for fourth straight month in December

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="405" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-575354" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9.jpeg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/108086316-1736874753444-gettyimages-2193324665-AFP_36TV4A9-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World Economic Forum president and CEO Borge Brende holds a press conference to present the upcoming WEF annual meeting held in Davos, in Geneva, on January 14, 2025. Fabrice Coffrini | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Risk specialists identified armed conflict, extreme weather and disinformation among the top global risks for the year ahead, according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released on Wednesday.



Nearly a quarter (23%) of respondents in the WEF’s flagship “Global Risks Report” ranked state-based armed conflict as the most pressing concern for 2025.



Misinformation and disinformation were cited as top risks over a two-year time horizon for the&nbsp;second straight year, while environmental concerns such as&nbsp;extreme weather events,&nbsp;biodiversity loss&nbsp;and&nbsp;ecosystem collapse&nbsp;dominated the 10-year risk rankings.



Extreme weather events, which include heatwaves, tornadoes and floods, featured prominently among both short-term and long-term risks. The climate crisis is making extreme weather&nbsp;more frequent and more intense.



The report comes as close to 3,000 leaders from more than 130 countries prepare to take part in the&nbsp;WEF’s annual meeting. The four-day event kicks off in the Swiss&nbsp;mountain village of Davos on Monday.



&#8220;Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape&#8221; said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. &#8220;In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.&#8221;



The survey considers risks over the short term to 2025, the short to medium term to 2027 and the long term through to 2035. More than 900 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders were surveyed in September and October last year to inform the report.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-is-in-a-dire-state"><a></a>‘World is in a dire state’</h2>



WEF said armed conflict was overlooked as a leading short-term risk two years ago, a development that reflects escalating geopolitical tensions and an increasingly fractured global landscape.



United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has previously&nbsp;warned&nbsp;that the world is facing the highest number of conflicts since World War II, citing Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.



Some of the other short-term risks identified in the WEF’s latest report include societal polarization, cyber espionage, pollution and inequality.



“It’s clear that the world is in a dire state and the global risk landscape is like a squirrel’s nest where risks are interconnected, layered on top of one another, making the business environment very, very difficult to navigate,” Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer at Marsh McLennan Europe, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro in an interview out Wednesday.



Klint said these risks do not necessarily reflect a new emerging trend — but rather one that is “getting more and more aggressive.”



“I think we’re navigating an era now marked by increasing economic tensions,” Klint said. “And I think we have to recognize the fragmentation is not a theoretical concern. It is something that we need to confront today. So, it has resulted in a more complex and uncertain trading environment.”

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Conflict, extreme weather and disinformation top global risks in 2025, Davos survey says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="410" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1-820x410.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575340" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1-820x410.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1-300x150.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1-160x80.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1-768x384.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/1340fe48fa45052f654f008915dbd9c0.2-1-super.1.jpg 1360w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">eric1513/Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose 100% tariffs on countries that shun the greenback. But the myriad benefits of de-dollarization, especially in terms of macroeconomic management and growth, are huge, and will likely outweigh the costs of these retaliatory measures.



BELFAST – During the US presidential campaign, Donald Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-07/trump-pledges-100-tariff-for-countries-that-shun-the-dollar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">pledged</a> to make de-dollarization – efforts to reduce global reliance on the greenback – too costly to contemplate, vowing to impose 100% tariffs on countries that shun the currency. But such a move, part of a broader tariff agenda that the president-elect <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3c98661c-8b8b-4c84-b32a-611c1c59dd1b" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">seems determined</a> to enact, would do little to stop the dollar’s demise.



The greenback remains the most important means of exchange and effective store of value, making it the preferred currency for international trade and finance, as well as for foreign-exchange reserves held by central banks to ensure a steady supply of imports and insure against currency crises and macroeconomic instability. But as the world’s economic center of gravity shifts east, de-dollarization is accelerating.



The dollar’s share of foreign-exchange reserves fell from a peak of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120449419552406067" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">72%</a>&nbsp;in 2002 to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/dollar-worlds-reserve-currency" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">59%</a>&nbsp;in 2023, driven by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/11/dollar-dominance-in-the-international-reserve-system-an-update" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">increased demand</a>&nbsp;for non-traditional reserve currencies – especially the Chinese renminbi. Moreover, the global oil trade was almost exclusively settled in dollars until last year, when&nbsp;<a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Fifth-of-Global-Oil-Trade-Used-Non-Dollar-Currencies-in-2023.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">one-fifth</a>&nbsp;of these transactions were denominated in other currencies.



Several factors have contributed to this shift. Global South countries have become the drivers of global economic growth, changing the dynamics of global trade and energy markets. An increasingly multipolar world has ushered in a new age of currency competition, while technological and financial innovations have made it less expensive and more efficient to use local-currency settlement (LCS) for bilateral trade.



Trump, seemingly aware of the enormous economic and geopolitical benefits conferred by the dollar’s status as the world’s main reserve currency, would like to halt this process. After all, the United States is one of the few countries in the highly integrated world economy that still has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2022/08/29/how-to-rethink-monetary-sovereignty-in-an-era-of-financial-globalization/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">effective monetary sovereignty</a>&nbsp;– namely, the ability to set and achieve its economic and monetary-policy objectives without regard for other countries.



By contrast, as the eurodollar market became the backbone of the privatized international monetary system, more countries issued dollar-denominated sovereign debt, increasing their&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-dollar-is-a-problem-for-rich-and-poor-countries-by-hippolyte-fofack-2024-08">reliance on the greenback</a>. In 2011, then-Chinese President Hu Jintao&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ae01a8f6-21b7-11e0-9e3b-00144feab49a" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">put it</a>&nbsp;plainly: “The monetary policy of the United States has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows, and therefore, the liquidity of the US dollar should be kept at a reasonable and stable level.”



Although a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York singles out geopolitical distance from the US and financial sanctions as the main drivers of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/economists/goldberg/Driversdollarshare02262024" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">decreasing demand</a>&nbsp;for the US dollar, de-dollarization is not driven exclusively or even largely by America’s overreliance on the dollar as a foreign-policy tool. Rather, many governments are encouraging the use of instruments denominated in their national unit of account to capture the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199614000567" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">welfare gains</a>&nbsp;associated with having an international currency.



Perhaps the most successful example of this was Europe’s monetary integration, which gave rise to the euro, now a strong second to the dollar, accounting for around&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/international-role-euro/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">20%</a>&nbsp;of global reserves and over half the EU’s exports worldwide. In 2022, roughly 52% of goods that the European Union imported from non-EU countries, and around 59% of goods that the bloc exported to these countries, were&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/html/ecb.ire202306~d334007ede.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">invoiced in euros</a>.



Following in the EU’s footsteps, Global South countries are&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/making-global-monetary-system-work-for-global-south-by-hippolyte-fofack-2023-02">leveraging</a>&nbsp;new technologies to promote the use of LCS for bilateral trade, which can ease balance-of-payments constraints and sustain economic growth. China, for example, has developed its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, established bilateral swap lines with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-debt-belt-road-swap-lines-18ed8e37" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">nearly 40 foreign central banks</a>, and successfully pushed to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3277788/saudi-arabia-open-petroyuan-closer-china-ties-minister-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">denominate oil contracts in renminbi</a>. Total Energies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation&nbsp;<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/05/is-france-backing-chinas-currency-against-the-us-dollar/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">concluded</a>&nbsp;China’s first purchase of liquefied natural gas in renminbi through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange last year.



In 2022, the Reserve Bank of India established a mechanism to enable international trade settlement in rupees, which could save around&nbsp;<a href="https://internationalbanker.com/banking/the-indian-rupee-as-international-currency/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$30 billion</a>&nbsp;in dollar outflows if used for Russian oil imports. Among the BRICS+ countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates), trade settled in national currencies has reportedly&nbsp;<a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/brics-beats-dollar-dependence-national-currency-settlements-exceed-usd-payments/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">surpassed</a>&nbsp;that in dollars. Cross-border investment in local currency is also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/brics-bank-looks-local-currencies-russia-sanctions-bite-2023-08-10/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">set to rise</a>, with the BRICS’ New Development Bank raising its local-currency lending from about 22% to 30% by 2026 to mitigate the impact of foreign-exchange fluctuations and remove cash-flow bottlenecks in financing projects.



The Nobel laureate economist&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/joseph-e-stiglitz">Joseph E. Stiglitz</a>&nbsp;estimated the annual cost of reserve hoarding for developing countries at more than&nbsp;<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Making-Globalization-Work-Joseph-Stiglitz/dp/0393330281" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$300 billion</a>&nbsp;– 2% of their combined GDP – in the mid-2000s. That figure is undoubtedly higher today, given the increase in excess reserves and the growing number of countries with sub-investment-grade credit ratings&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14747731.2014.927146" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">accessing</a>&nbsp;international capital markets.



To be sure, de-dollarization also serves as a hedge against US financial sanctions, which are expected to proliferate under Trump. But the myriad other benefits of pursuing such a policy, especially in terms of macroeconomic management and growth, are huge, and will likely outweigh the costs of the retaliatory tariffs that Trump has promised to impose on currency competitors.



The process may be slow-moving. Powerful&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/html/ecb.ire202306~d334007ede.en.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">network externalities</a>, coupled with the depth and liquidity of the US capital markets, have made it difficult to dislodge the dollar, even though America&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/10/china-surpasses-us-world-largest-trading-nation" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">lost its status</a>&nbsp;as the world’s largest trading economy more than a decade ago. But the shift to non-traditional reserve currencies in an increasingly multipolar economic system, and the growing importance of the cross-border use of national currencies in fueling growth and achieving global income convergence, suggests de-dollarization will continue. And a tsunami of tariffs and sanctions under the next US administration will surely help it along.

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Trump Can’t Stop De-Dollarization

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="216" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-820x216.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575337" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-820x216.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-300x79.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-160x42.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-768x202.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-1536x405.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/cdi-country-focus-final-eng-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Côte d’Ivoire has become a pillar of growth and stability for the region, thanks to its impressive economic resilience and commitment to reform, but efforts to address certain challenges need to be maintained.



The Ivoirien economy has performed strongly over the past decade, with GDP growth averaging 6.4 percent, inflation hovering around 2.2 percent, and a declining proportion of the population living below the national poverty line. The country has maintained macroeconomic stability despite the major shocks that have buffeted the world in recent years.



Nonetheless, structural obstacles persist, including the informal nature of employment, which has diminished but remains pervasive, thereby complicating the country’s mission to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth, broaden the tax base, and deepen the ongoing economic transformation. At the same time, the relative predominance of the cocoa sector and the concentration of industry and services in coastal zones make Côte d’Ivoire vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The economic diversification that is currently under way should help to strengthen economic resilience further.



The Executive Board and staff of the IMF analyzed the situation of Côte d’Ivoire as part of the (recently completed)&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/12/13/pr-24472-cote-divoire-imf-completes-3rd-rev-of-eff-ecf-2nd-rev-of-rsf-concl-2024-art-iv-consult">2024 Article IV consultations and the reviews</a>&nbsp;conducted under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). As the country continues to make progress toward joining the ranks of upper middle-income countries and in tackling climate change, the&nbsp;IMF Country Focus&nbsp;editorial team spoke with Côte d’Ivoire’s Minister of Finance and Budget,&nbsp;Adama Coulibaly, and IMF Mission Chief&nbsp;Olaf Unteroberdoerster.



Côte d’Ivoire is on track to achieve upper middle-income status.&nbsp;What role is the Fund playing in helping the country implement its ambitious development agenda?



Adama Coulibaly:&nbsp;Côte d’Ivoire has become West Africa’s engine of growth and stability. Over the past decade, its GDP growth has been about 3 percentage points higher and inflation almost 4.4 points lower than the respective sub-Saharan African averages. Continuous public investment in high-priority, socially-oriented, infrastructure has helped reduce poverty, despite the growing influx of refugees from neighboring countries.



The Fund’s support has been crucial. Despite the severe shocks that have reverberated around the world, the critical adjustment made since 2023, under Côte d’Ivoire’s EFF- and ECF-supported program, has preserved macroeconomic stability and enabled it to become the first sub-Saharan African country to return to international financial markets since 2022. Standard and Poor’s recently upgraded our country’s sovereign debt rating to BB, one of the best three ratings in Africa.&nbsp;



At the same time, the RSF arrangement, approved in March 2024, is helping us to meet the increasing challenges of climate change. In particular, our continued commitment to reforms under these two programs should help Côte d’Ivoire achieve upper middle-income status and strengthen its resilience to climate change.



Why does domestic revenue mobilization play such an important role in the authorities’ reform agenda?



Olaf Unteroberdoerster: Domestic revenue mobilization is key to creating the fiscal space needed to meet Côte d’Ivoire’s high-priority social protection and infrastructure needs, such as education, health, and transportation. All of this will support the country’s ambitious economic transformation agenda aimed at achieving upper middle-income status.



Efforts to mobilize domestic revenue have thus far enabled significant progress, in particular toward complying with the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s deficit ceiling of 3 percent of GDP by 2025. These efforts have also been instrumental in preserving Côte d’Ivoire’s rating as a “moderate” debt-distress risk and, more broadly, in enabling the country to maintain one of the best credit ratings in sub-Saharan Africa.



To capitalize on these good results, the authorities recently adopted a global medium-term revenue mobilization strategy that provides a roadmap toward a fairer, simpler, and more inclusive tax system. This is designed to improve outcomes and drive revenue mobilization more autonomously, with strong popular support.



What are Côte d’Ivoire’s priorities for improving the business climate and increasing private sector involvement in the country’s development?



Adama Coulibaly:&nbsp;To stimulate private sector productivity and economic diversification, Côte d’Ivoire is prioritizing the delivery of high-quality public services, particularly in the energy sector, and improving governance. This will require actions targeted on human capital building, financial inclusion, and climate change resilience. The government will continue to reduce the prevalence of informal work by tackling gender inequalities, providing vocational training aligned with the needs of the private sector, making it even easier for businesses to register officially, and expanding social protection and universal health coverage—all of which are in keeping with our national development plan.



The government is also committed to complying with the recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism. The aim is to be removed from the FATF “grey list” as soon as possible, based on the significant progress made to date and rapid implementation of the remaining measures in the action plan.



What are Côte d’Ivoire’s main climate change vulnerabilities, and how is the Fund helping it to address them?



Olaf Unteroberdoerster: Côte d’Ivoire is highly vulnerable to climate change owing to rising temperatures and sea levels, and changes in rainfall patterns that increase the risk of flooding and coastal erosion. As the world’s largest producer and exporter of cocoa, it is heavily dependent on agriculture; and, as industrial and service activities are concentrated in coastal zones, it is important to continue adopting the measures needed to avoid a potentially considerable impact on the country’s economy.



Côte d’Ivoire has embarked on an ambitious reform agenda, supported by the IMF and a US$1.3 billion arrangement under the RSF. The program is built around the following six key pillars: integrating climate change into key aspects of public finance management; strengthening governance of climate policies; reinforcing safeguards for the agricultural sector; creating a framework for green and sustainable financing; building resilience to climate hazards; and controlling and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.



Following a climate financing roundtable in July, convened jointly by the Ivoirien government, the IMF and the World Bank, Côte d’Ivoire announced a wide range of initiatives at the recent COP29 meetings to catalyze climate financing in the country. These include strengthening the coordination of budget support, including grants; speeding up the implementation of adaptation projects through a project preparation financing mechanism; establishing a green finance facility for Côte d’Ivoire with a view to promoting green growth; and enhancing support for the financing of private-sector investment.

cdi-country-focus-final-eng

Côte d’Ivoire: Fostering Economic Transformation and Adapting to Climate Change

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="473" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-820x473.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575323" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-820x473.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-300x173.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-156x90.jpg 156w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-768x443.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-1536x886.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/LYNXMPED4U1W6-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A train launched to operate on the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line constructed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and financed by Chinese government arrives at the Nairobi Terminus on the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya May 31, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI/ABU DHABI, Jan 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya has started discussions with the United Arab Emirates to secure financing to complete a regional railway, President William Ruto said, after China cut infrastructure funding to the project.



The railway connecting the Kenyan port of Mombasa with landlocked neighbours, as part of China&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative, ended in the Rift Valley in 2019, 468 kilometres (290 miles) short of the border with Uganda, after Beijing withdrew support.



&#8220;We are exploring a partnership agreement with the United Arab Emirates to extend the Standard Gauge Railway to connect Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan,&#8221; Ruto said on X late on Tuesday, after meeting UAE officials in Abu Dhabi.



Both sides will carry out a feasibility study on the extension of the railway, he said, &#8220;due to its capacity to foster regional integration and promote trade&#8221;.



Ruto&#8217;s office did not respond to Reuters&#8217; request for more details.



Ruto, who took over in September 2022, has pursued closer ties with the UAE, and Kenya is also finalising a $1.5 billion commercial loan from the UAE for budget support.



The East African nation and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement on Tuesday, aiming to boost trade volumes by removing barriers, simplifying customs processes and promoting investments.



&#8220;Kenya is going to be a gateway for sure for East Africa,&#8221; Thani Al Zeyoudi, the UAE&#8217;s minister of trade, told Reuters on Tuesday.



Trade between Kenya and the UAE has more than doubled over the last decade, Ruto&#8217;s office said. The UAE is the sixth biggest export market for Kenyan goods, and its second biggest source of imports.



The value of the trade stood at 445 billion shillings ($3.44 billion) in 2023, with the UAE buying agricultural products, while Kenya gets petroleum products, machinery and chemicals.



The UAE&#8217;s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Emirates National Oil Company were among three Gulf firms Ruto&#8217;s government picked in 2023 to supply Kenya with oil on longer credit terms, in a shift from an open tender system.



($1 = 129.2500 Kenyan shillings)



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri in Nairobi and Rachna Uppal in Abu Dhabi; Editing by Barbara Lewis)

A train launched to operate on the SGR line constructed by the CRBC and financed by Chinese government arrives at the Nairobi Terminus in Nairobi

Kenya turns to the UAE for railway funds after China cut financing

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575318" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AEI24-Day1-0093-3-1.jpg 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Cape Town, South Africa, will be the center of Africa’s energy discussions as the <a href="https://africaenergyindaba.com/">Africa Energy Indaba</a> 2025 kicks off from March 4-6 next year. This flagship event is set to connect investors with an array of promising new and ongoing energy projects across Africa’s rapidly expanding energy landscape, making it an essential opportunity for those looking to make impactful investments in the continent’s energy sector.



With Africa’s energy demand expected to more than double by 2040, investment in sustainable, affordable, and reliable energy is paramount to driving economic and social development. The continent is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with increasing populations and rapid urbanization creating unprecedented demand for energy solutions. While Africa possesses vast renewable energy potential, it still requires substantial investment to unlock these resources and bring them to market, especially in solar, wind, and hydropower projects. By tapping into this emerging market, investors can participate in transformative projects that promise both financial returns and essential service delivery to millions across the continent.



A highlight of the 2025 event will be the newly introduced&nbsp;<a href="https://africaenergyindaba.com/events/energy-projects-dealroom/">Projects Dealroom</a>, an exclusive, focused space designed to facilitate access to project development opportunities. Here, investors, developers, and financiers will have the unique opportunity to engage in targeted discussions, review investment-ready projects, and build strategic partnerships. From large-scale renewable ventures to innovative electrification initiatives, the Projects Dealroom will offer a curated selection of high-impact opportunities that align with Africa’s push toward a more resilient, green energy future.



Africa Energy Indaba attendees will also gain access to cutting-edge insights into the latest advancements in energy technologies and infrastructure upgrades. The conference agenda features thought-provoking discussions led by industry experts and policymakers, addressing key issues and solutions for energy access, renewable adoption, and grid modernisation. Through these sessions, participants will gain the essential knowledge and market intelligence needed to navigate the complexities of the African energy landscape and make informed investment decisions.



The need for strategic financial commitments is more pressing than ever. Access to energy in sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the lowest in the world, with approximately 600 million people still living without electricity. Strategic investments in sustainable energy can be pivotal in addressing these gaps, driving economic growth, and improving quality of life for communities across the continent.



The Africa Energy Indaba 2025 offers investors a critical platform to not only gain a foothold in Africa’s growing energy market but to contribute to a brighter, more sustainable future for the region.



Don’t miss the chance to join industry leaders, financiers, and policymakers at the Africa Energy Indaba 2025. Register now to secure your place and explore investment opportunities that will shape Africa’s energy landscape for generations to come.

AEI24-Day1-0093-3 (1)

Unlock Africa’s Energy Investment Potential at the Africa Energy Indaba 2025

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="469" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-820x469.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-575313" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-820x469.webp 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-300x171.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-158x90.webp 158w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-768x439.webp 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation-1536x878.webp 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/DALL·E-2025-01-15-14.10.12-A-powerful-landscape-artwork-depicting-the-complex-interplay-of-global-risks-for-2025-and-beyond.-The-scene-combines-three-themes_-1-A-representation.webp 1792w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by DALL·E &#8211; a powerful landscape artwork depicting the complex interplay of global risks for 2025 and beyond. The scene combines three themes.</figcaption></figure>



The release of the 20th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report paints a sobering picture of the challenges shaping our collective future. With an increasingly fractured global landscape, the report highlights how escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal, and technological threats are testing the resilience of international systems.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-top-risks-of-2025-a-world-in-crisis">The Top Risks of 2025: A World in Crisis</h2>



The report identifies state-based armed conflict as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly 25% of respondents ranking it as their top concern. These conflicts, fueled by growing geopolitical tensions, signal a world grappling with heightened instability.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/WEF_GRR25_Shareable_Current_risk_landscape-1-800x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575314"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025</figcaption></figure>



Misinformation and disinformation, which retain their position as the top short-term societal risks for the second consecutive year, continue to undermine societal trust and governance. As these risks erode cohesion within and between nations, they compound the challenges posed by other immediate threats, such as extreme weather events, societal polarization, and cyber-espionage.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-environmental-challenges-a-long-term-crisis">Environmental Challenges: A Long-Term Crisis</h2>



Looking beyond immediate concerns, environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon. From extreme weather events to biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, and critical changes to Earth systems, the environmental outlook reflects the urgent need for systemic interventions. Pollution, ranked sixth as a short-term risk, highlights the pervasive impact of air, water, and land pollutants on health and ecosystems.



&#8220;Extreme weather events feature prominently across immediate, short-term, and long-term horizons, underscoring their central role in the global risk landscape,&#8221; notes the report. With climate change accelerating the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, this remains a critical area for global action.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-technology-s-dual-edge">Technology’s Dual Edge</h2>



While technological advancements offer significant opportunities, the report underscores the potential dangers. Misinformation, disinformation, and the adverse outcomes of AI technologies are identified as major long-term risks. As these tools become more pervasive, their misuse could exacerbate societal divisions and erode trust in institutions.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-stark-outlook-declining-optimism-and-rising-turbulence">A Stark Outlook: Declining Optimism and Rising Turbulence</h2>



Over 900 experts surveyed for the report express growing pessimism about the world’s trajectory. Nearly two-thirds of respondents foresee a turbulent or stormy landscape by 2035, shaped by intensifying environmental, societal, and technological challenges.



Short-term projections aren’t much brighter. Over half of respondents anticipate instability within the next two years, driven by a breakdown in international cooperation and rising societal fractures, such as inequality and polarization. Vulnerabilities such as illicit economic activity, mounting debt burdens, and the concentration of strategic resources further compound the global risk outlook.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-call-for-collective-action">The Call for Collective Action</h2>



&#8220;Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape,&#8221; said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. &#8220;In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.&#8221;



The report calls for urgent, collective action to address these challenges. Key recommendations include:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Reinforcing Multilateral Institutions: Strengthening global frameworks to manage shared challenges effectively.</li>



<li>Promoting Dialogue: Encouraging open communication among nations to rebuild trust and reduce polarization.</li>



<li>Prioritizing Sustainability: Accelerating efforts to mitigate environmental risks and adapt to climate change.</li>



<li>Harnessing Technology Responsibly: Developing frameworks to manage the risks associated with AI and other emerging technologies.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-decisive-decade">A Decisive Decade</h2>



As divisions deepen and global systems face unprecedented strain, the coming decade is pivotal. &#8220;From conflicts to climate change, we are facing interconnected crises that demand coordinated, collective action,&#8221; emphasizes Mark Elsner, Head of the Global Risks Initiative at the World Economic Forum. &#8220;Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and foster cooperation are urgently needed. The consequences of inaction could be felt for generations to come.&#8221;



In a world where 64% of experts anticipate a fragmented global order marked by competition among powers, the report urges leaders to resist the temptation to turn inward. Instead, nations must prioritize dialogue, strengthen international ties, and foster collaboration to navigate these complex risks. By doing so, humanity can chart a path toward a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive future.

DALL·E 2025-01-15 14.10.12 – A powerful landscape artwork depicting the complex interplay of global risks for 2025 and beyond. The scene combines three themes_ 1) A representation

Fractured Systems and Fragile Futures: Key Takeaways from the Global Risks Report 2025

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="566" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-820x566.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-575299" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-820x566.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-300x207.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-130x90.jpg 130w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-768x530.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-1536x1060.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CPZWR5HQKJL7PCMFS7ZRBGYOBE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Delivery bikes ride along a waterlogged road on the beach front, after heavy rains, in Durban, South Africa, May 22, 2022. REUTERS/Rogan Ward</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa has temporarily closed a key border crossing with Botswana due to heavy rainfall and flooding, the country&#8217;s border authority said.



The Grobler&#8217;s Bridge crossing in northern South Africa is used for trade, especially by miners in the Copperbelt region straddling Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo moving cargo to the port of Durban.



&#8220;Following consultations with our Botswana counterparts and thorough deliberation by the Port Management Committee, it has been decided that the temporary suspension of operations is necessary to prioritise safety,&#8221; the Border Management Authority said in a statement.



The agency urged travellers and truck operators to use alternative routes.



The crossing links Botswana with South Africa&#8217;s northern Limpopo province, which witnessed heavy rainfall last weekend.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alexander Winning and Angus MacSwan)

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Conflict, extreme weather and disinformation top global risks in 2025, Davos survey says

Trump Can’t Stop De-Dollarization

Côte d’Ivoire: Fostering Economic Transformation and Adapting to Climate Change

Kenya turns to the UAE for railway funds after China cut financing

Unlock Africa’s Energy Investment Potential at the Africa Energy Indaba 2025

Fractured Systems and Fragile Futures: Key Takeaways from the Global Risks Report 2025

Rains force South Africa to close border crossing with Botswana

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China’s fourth-quarter GDP grows at 5.4%, beating market expectations as stimulus measures kick in

South African rand firms ahead of Trump inauguration

The BRICS bloc is growing — and Trump’s tariff threat isn’t expected to put off aspiring members

The yacht-racing competition with bold ambitions for the planet

How The Gold Boom Is Fueling A Rise In Illegal Gold Mining In Africa

South African rand, stocks surge after US consumer inflation data

China’s slowing economy is waiting for more stimulus. Here’s how the country plans to boost growth

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth in November, below expectations

Why Phoenix Became A Hot Spot For Tech Companies

Nigerian inflation rises for fourth straight month in December

Conflict, extreme weather and disinformation top global risks in 2025, Davos survey says

Trump Can’t Stop De-Dollarization

Côte d’Ivoire: Fostering Economic Transformation and Adapting to Climate Change

Kenya turns to the UAE for railway funds after China cut financing

Unlock Africa’s Energy Investment Potential at the Africa Energy Indaba 2025

Fractured Systems and Fragile Futures: Key Takeaways from the Global Risks Report 2025

Rains force South Africa to close border crossing with Botswana

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