<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-596826" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108111007-17411428882025-03-05t024718z_970393539_rc2q6dapgzf5_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-congress.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



LONDON — President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a major concern among U.S. and international business leaders, with industry titans warning of trouble ahead.



Speaking at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned of “fighting” between countries over the duties.



“Tariffs are going to cause fighting between countries … I’m not necessarily talking about military. But think about U.S., Canada, Mexico, China &#8230; There will be fighting, and that will have consequences,” he said, speaking to CNBC’s Sara Eisen on Wednesday.



Trump’s 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports took effect Wednesday, with the EU, Australia and Canada among the regions and countries affected. U.S. markets have been in turmoil over the duties this week.



Dalio said the current environment is “an extension of the patterns of history” — giving 1930s Germany as an example.



There was a hike in tariffs to boost revenue and a buildup of the country’s domestic base as well as a writedown of debt at the time, Dalio said. “Be nationalistic, be protectionistic, be militaristic. That is the way these things operate,” Dalio said. “The issue is really the confrontation of all of this,” he said.



Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff described reciprocity between countries as “good” if they treat each other the same way. But he said the “what and the how” are “very important.” “If you can’t put the what and the how in a consistent, clear and meaningful way, then you could end up with high levels of volatility and conflict,” Benioff said, speaking at CONVERGE.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-european-reaction"><a></a>European reaction</h2>



Europe quickly retaliated to the steel and aluminum tariffs with its own counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion) worth of U.S. goods starting next month.



“Tariffs are taxes, they are bad for business and worse for consumers, they are disrupting supply chains, they bring uncertainty for the economy,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen&nbsp;told reporters during a press conference Wednesday.



Trump appeared unimpressed, stating that additional duties would be imposed on Europe if it goes ahead with the tariffs in April. “Whatever they charge us, we’re charging them,” Trump told reporters.



Former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron on Thursday said he was concerned about the simmering trade war.



“I’m worried about this because I’m a free trader. I believe that if you maximize free trade, it isn’t a one country wins and the other country loses, it can be a win-win situation and it normally is,” Cameron said at COVERGE LIVE.



“I fear that Donald Trump’s view of the world is he sort of looks at a country and says if you’ve got a surplus in trade with me, you’re ripping me off. That’s not the case. If every country in the world had a surplus, who would have the deficit? Mars, Jupiter? So, I don’t think that view of the world is right,” he continued.



“But, and it is an important but, as ever with Donald Trump, at the heart of what he is saying there is a real and understandable concern,” Cameron added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Risk of recession</h2>



Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific at Pimco, warned of an increased risk of recession because of the tariffs. There is a “maybe 35% probability” that the U.S. will enter a recession this year, Kersman told CNBC’s Martin Soong at CONVERGE LIVE, up from Pimco’s December 2024 estimate of 15%.



Despite that, Kersman said, Pimco’s base case scenario is that the U.S. economy will grow 1% to 1.5%, “quite a significant decrease” from its earlier projections.



Kersman advised market participants to be “more patient” in terms of rebalancing investments. “There’s a lot of noise in the markets right now, and you want to give it three to six months before you make that action,” he said. Tariffs will create “more distinct winners and losers,” and added, “The trend of globalization is is being redirected, and there are no more universal laws of how capital will behave.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Consumer spending</h2>



However, Kamal Bhatia, president and CEO of Principal Asset Management, said trade wars caused by tariffs could in fact mean that consumers spend more at home.



Most people will underestimate this potential increase in expenditure because of a focus on the “external effects” on gross domestic product, Bhatia said at CONVERGE LIVE. Countries could “go back to being insular,” he said, leading to patriotism and better-than-expected gross domestic product growth.



The potential for increased domestic expenditure was also brought up by Alibaba’s Chairman Joe Tsai. China’s domestic consumption “needs a boost,” thanks to “tariffs and geopolitics,” Tsai said at CONVERGE LIVE — the average effective U.S. duty on Chinese goods is set to reach 33%, according to Nomura estimates.



“Look at the Chinese consumer. They’re very, very healthy. Household balance sheet is very, very strong. You’re looking at over $20 trillion of bank deposits by households. So, they’re standing on the sidelines waiting to spend,” Tsai said.



Tsai said he is “glass half full” about Trump’s trade policy. “The Trump administration will want to have more American companies doing business in China,” he said. “Eventually, you know, the tariffs being a negotiating tool maybe, but at some point things will sort of get better,” he added.



CNBC’s Amala Balakrishner, Anniek Bao, Katrina Bishop, Holly Ellyatt and Sam Meredith contributed reporting.

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‘Volatility and conflict’: Business leaders sound warnings over Trump’s tariffs

Why Aluminum Tariffs May Be Pricey For Americans

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-596469" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108100870-17393003382025-02-11t173028z_1368012250_rc2dscayok3b_rtrmadp_0_usa-trump-tariffs-mexico-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Steel coils are pictured in the yards of the steelmaker Ternium plant. Daniel Becerril | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The European Union has reacted swiftly to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that came into effect Wednesday, retaliating with their own punitive counter-measures that it said were needed to protect consumers and businesses.



The White House confirmed the duties — which will affect Canada, Australia, the EU and others — late Tuesday, but said that Trump no longer planned to raise tariffs on the metals from Canada to 50%.



The EU responded swiftly, saying it would impose counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion) worth of U.S. goods starting in April.



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday told reporters that the EU “must act to protect businesses and consumers.”



“We deeply regret this measure [by the U.S.]. Tariffs are taxes, they are bad for business and worse for consumers, they are disrupting supply chains, they bring uncertainty for the economy, jobs are at stake, prices are up and nobody needs that, neither side needs that,” she said during a press conference.



Trade ties between the U.S. and EU “are the biggest in the world,” Von der Leyen said, and the relationship had brought “prosperity and security to millions of people” as well as job creation on both sides of the Atlantic, she noted.



The EU’s two-pronged approach will see previously suspended tariffs re-imposed on 8 billion euros of U.S. exports, and a slew of new countermeasures on 18 billion euros of goods in a move Von der Leyen had earlier described as “strong but proportionate.”



“We will always remain open to negotiation,” she added in a statement.



The EU said the tariffs will affect up to 26 billion euros (28.3 billion) worth of EU exports to the U.S. They&nbsp; apply to industrial-grade steel and aluminum, other steel and aluminum semi-finished and finished products, and also their derivative commercial products, such as machinery parts and knitting needles.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rising-tensions"><a></a>Rising tensions</h2>



The tit for tat action marks the latest development in a simmering trade war that has been marked by bold promises of tariffs — and subsequent reversals and delays — by Trump.



The trade tensions have hit markets in recent days amid growing concerns that the duties could push the world’s biggest economy toward a recession.



Unlike Mexico, Canada and China, EU-origin products had not been hit by Trump’s tariffs until the steel and aluminum duties came into effect Wednesday.



Tensions between Washington and Brussels have been simmering since Trump’s inauguration in January, when the White House leader immediately signaled his intention to impose tariffs on the bloc.



“They’ve really taken advantage of us,” Trump said in a Cabinet meeting on Feb.26, adding: “They don’t accept our cars, they don’t accept, essentially, our farm products. They use all sorts of reasons why not. And we accept everything of them.”



One of Trump’s biggest bugbears is the U.S.′ trade deficits with a number of key trading partners, including Canada and the EU.



European Commission data show that the EU had a trade surplus of 155.8 billion euros ($159.6 billion) with the U.S. for goods in 2023, but ran a 104-billion-euros deficit on services. Overall, EU-U.S. trade in goods and services in 2023 was worth 1.6 trillion euros ($1.68 trillion), according the to EU.



Machinery and vehicles make up the largest chunk of EU exports to the U.S. by product group, followed by chemicals, other manufactured goods and medicinal and pharmaceutical products.&nbsp;



— CNBC’s Katrina Bishop and Amala Balakrishner contributed reporting to this story.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-595769" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/108112693-1741359002550-gettyimages-2202592326-raa-cryptocr250303_npQOY.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin fell on Monday as volatility in the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency continues following an executive order signed by President Donald Trump to create a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States.



Earlier Monday, bitcoin prices slipped up to 6.5% to trade around $80,650 before paring most losses. By 4:12 a.m., the coin was down 0.74% at $82,050, according to Coin Metrics.



The reserve will be funded by coins that have been seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases and there are no plans for the U.S. government to buy more bitcoin. After the strategic reserve announcement last Thursday, crypto prices declined as investors were disappointed it wasn’t a more aggressive program.



Other cryptocurrency prices also proved volatile on Monday. Both ether and XRP were trading in the green by 4:12 a.m. after earlier falling around 7.5%.



Some investors, however, said the move to establish a reserve was bullish in the long-term.



“I absolutely think the market has this wrong,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at&nbsp;Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. “The market is short-term disappointed” that the government didn’t say it was immediately going to start acquiring 100,000 or 200,000 bitcoin, he added.



Hougan pointed towards comments on X from White House Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks, who said the U.S. would look for “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers.”



“I think the right question to ask is: did this executive order make it more likely that in the future, bitcoin will be a geopolitically important currency or asset? Will other governments look to follow the U.S.’s lead and build their own strategic reserve? And to me, the answer to that is emphatically yes,” Hougan said.



“The reason that questions matters is that’s the question that determines if bitcoin is $80,000 a coin or $1 million a coin.”



Hougan called the decline in crypto prices a “short-term setback.”



“I think the market will soon find its footing and realize that actually this is incredibly bullish long term for this asset and for crypto as a whole,” he said.



<a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.blinkist.com/magazine/posts/andrew-ng-book-recommendations-onboarding/?utm_source=taboola&amp;utm_medium=paid&amp;utm_campaign=20240906_TB_PRO_AndrewNGTTS-OnboardingTest_DW_Universal_MaxConversion-OnboardingLength&amp;utm_term=cnbc&amp;utm_content=4031132309&amp;taboola_click_id=GiDj4YBFh-KY4ULxc1Tv38w6L4sAzStLAzm14ncTr9ZdryCtlkEosfHclcKfxLBgMMQE&amp;tblci=GiDj4YBFh-KY4ULxc1Tv38w6L4sAzStLAzm14ncTr9ZdryCtlkEosfHclcKfxLBgMMQE#tblciGiDj4YBFh-KY4ULxc1Tv38w6L4sAzStLAzm14ncTr9ZdryCtlkEosfHclcKfxLBgMMQE"></a>

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Government borrowing costs rose across the globe on Thursday, with German bonds resuming the sell-off that sparked the biggest daily jump in yields since the country’s reunification 35 years ago.



Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, meaning that yields tick higher when the value of the asset declines.



Yields on German government bonds — known as bunds — skyrocketed on Wednesday, with the yield on the 10-year debt instruments adding around 30 basis points. The sell-off came after lawmakers from parties widely expected to form Germany’s next coalition government agreed to plans to reform historic debt policy rules to allow an increase in national defense spending.  



German government borrowing costs continued to rise on Thursday across the board. The yield on the 10-year bund, seen as a benchmark for the wider euro zone, was 7 basis points higher at 12:28 p.m. London time, paring earlier highs. The yields on 5- and 20-year bunds were up by 4 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively. Simultaneously, the DAX index — home to Germany’s biggest companies — touched on a record high.



Deutsche Bank Research Strategist Jim Reid said in a note to clients on Thursday morning that Germany’s political gear shift had helped fuel a greater appetite for riskier assets in Europe.



“In terms of reactions, the rise in the 10-year bund yield was the biggest daily jump since German reunification in 1990,” he said, noting that the euro and Germany’s DAX index had jumped in the wake of the news. “There’s no doubt that markets are pricing in a once-in-a-generation policy regime shift, which has brought about a huge risk-on move for European assets.”



“In terms of the drivers behind the sell-off, anticipation of a fiscal boost to demand was front and center as evidenced both by the outperformance of German stocks and the rise in inflation expectations,” analysts at RaboBank said in a note out on Thursday morning, pointing to 10-year euro zone inflation swaps jumping by 14 basis points in the wake of political news out of Germany.



Dampened appetite to lend to governments was seen across Europe on Thursday, with yields edging higher on bonds across the region.



The upward move in European borrowing costs also come ahead of the latest monetary policy update from the European Central Bank. Markets are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut when the central bank announces its decision later on Thursday, which would bring the euro zone’s core interest rate down to 2.5%.



Italian 10-year bond yields jumped 8 basis points by 12:29 p.m. in London, while French 10-year bond yields were up 7 basis points, and Swiss 10-year yields jumped by around 5 basis points during early afternoon trade.



The yield on U.K. 10-year government bonds – known as gilts – was up by around 6 basis points. Earlier this year, U.K. government borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs amid rising economic uncertainty.



Further afield, the bond sell-off extended into Japanese markets, with the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds gaining 7 basis points during Thursday trading hours.



Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at London’s Zaye Capital Markets, told CNBC that traders should monitor bond yields in Japan, some of which came near 16-year highs on Thursday.



“Watch Japan’s rising yields despite capped rates — [they] could signal broader market tension,” he said in emailed comments.



In the U.S., the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was last seen trading 4 basis points higher at around 4.311%.



Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services, told CNBC on Thursday that he saw two main drivers behind the global bonds sell-off.



“One is the fear that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/05/trump-tariffs-live-updates-china-says-its-ready-to-fight-any-type-of-war-us-wants-till-the-end.html">Trump’s tariff wars</a>&nbsp;will be inflationary,” he said in emailed comments.



He added that the ″‘whatever it takes’ 2.0″ approach to European defense of Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, was also piling pressure on bond prices.



″[This], which along with EU commitment to ramp up defence spending by [around] 800 billion euros ($864 billion), implying a big increase in government borrowing, [comes] at a time where debt loads outside of Germany are at record levels, Ostwald said.



Ralf Preusser, global head of G10 rates and FX strategy at Bank of America Global Research, told by email on Thursday that markets were struggling with three areas of uncertainty globally: tariffs, geopolitics and U.S. fiscal policy.



“While the details of all of these matter, for now the uncertainty shock dominates, in a way the rates market is finding difficult to price,” he said. “The Fed may struggle to deliver quick cuts given inflation risks, Europe is no longer funding the U.S. fiscal expansion, but its own, [and] tariffs and geopolitics are still more damaging for the rest of the world than the U.S.”



In Europe specifically, Preusser said Germany’s new political footing was challenging Bank of America’s outlook.



“Germany is delivering a paradigm shift in its fiscal stance,” he said. “We believe 10y bund [yields] could reach 2.75% in response. This considerable departure from our base case is not the only challenge to our assumptions for 2025: the correction in U.S. equity markets and the rally in front-end U.S. rates suggest we may need to rethink the risks around our forecasts more broadly.”



Emmanouil Karimalis, rates strategist at UBS Investment Bank, also said that the market had “clearly” responded to Germany’s proposed fiscal reforms, as well as the EU’s ReArm Europe plan.



&nbsp;“These plans suggest a significant increase in issuance patterns due to the urgent need to boost defence spending in Europe,” he said in emailed comments on Thursday. “Consequently, investors demand higher premia to absorb the expected increase in supply. While there are also implications for growth and inflation, we believe that the fiscal news and supply considerations have dominated this week.”

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Global bonds sell off as investors react to Trump’s tariffs and a German ‘paradigm shift’

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