JOHANNESBURG, March 24 (Reuters) – South Africa raised its main lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday as expected, citing inflation risks linked to the war in Ukraine.

The decision by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was in line with a Reuters poll, but the five-member Monetary Policy Committee was split 3-2, with two members preferring a larger 50-basis-point move.

It was the third hike in a row following similar moves in January and November. The rand extended gains after Governor Lesetja Kganyago announced the hike.

Kganyago said headline inflation had increased well above the midpoint of the SARB’s 3%-6% inflation target band and that it was forecast to breach that band in the second quarter.

“Global producer price and food price inflation continued to surprise higher in recent months and could do so again, particularly if the war in the Ukraine persists into the growing season,” the SARB said in its latest policy statement.

“Oil prices increased strongly through 2021 and are up again sharply year to date, propelled higher also by the war and economic sanctions,” the SARB said.

The bank now forecasts headline inflation this year of 5.8% from 4.9% seen in January, with the forecast raised primarily due to higher food and fuel prices. It sees 2022 economic growth of 2.0%, better than the 1.7% forecast previously because of higher commodities prices and stronger growth than expected in 2021.

Commodities like coal, iron ore, gold and platinum group metals are major South African exports. A commodities rally last year supported an economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.

(Reporting by Alexander Winning, Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Promit Mukherjee Editing by James Macharia Chege)