Oct 23 (Reuters) – Risk sentiment in most emerging markets took a hit on Monday, amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of U.S. monetary conditions remaining tighter for longer.
MSCI’s index tracking emerging markets equities .MSCIEF slipped 0.9% to its lowest level in eleven months by 0948 GMT.
Closely-watched crude prices dipped as diplomatic efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas war intensified, even as the conflict raged on into a new week. O/R
The basket of emerging markets currencies .MIEM00000CUS was little changed, even as the dollar was underpinned by elevated U.S. Treasury yields, an indicator of interest rate expectations.
“Widening conflict in the Middle East would most affect global markets through sharply higher oil prices,” UBS analysts wrote in a note.
“We would expect greater asset price swings in the event of a regional escalation that draws in other nations, such as Iran.”
The shekel ILS= was muted ahead of a central bank rate decision due at 1300 GMT, where economists expect it to stay pat on borrowing costs.
Elsewhere, Argentina’s sovereign dollar-denominated bonds fell as much as 4 cents on the dollar after Sergio Massa emerged as the frontrunner in the presidential vote on Sunday, setting the stage for a polarized run-off vote between the Economy Minister and far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei.
“Milei’s surprise win will only add to uncertainty ahead of the election proper in October, as investors consider what a Milei government would mean, and it appears to dent the JxC’s chances,” said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist and global head of fixed income research at Tellimer.
Meanwhile, Chinese equities were a drag, with the blue-chip index .CSI300 closing down 1.0%, its lowest in over 4-1/2 years amid lingering property sector worries.
Goldman Sachs’ preferred gauge of foreign exchange flows showed September capital outflows from China rose sharply to $75 billion, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, underscoring intensifying depreciation pressure on the yuan.
More broadly, EM currencies have remained range-bound as investors were wary of riskier foreign exchange markets amid geopolitical uncertainties, while keeping an eye on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
In central and eastern Europe, Czech’s crown EURCZK= inched down 0.1% against the euro after central bank board member Jan Prochazka was quoted saying market expectations for two interest rate cuts this year are overdone.
In northern Africa, S&P became the latest ratings agency to downgrade Egypt’s long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch to “B-“, citing the country’s mounting funding pressures.
(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)
