Oct 2 (Reuters) – Emerging market equities edged higher on Monday after a brutal third quarter marked by fears of U.S. interest rates staying elevated for longer, while investors assessed a slew of upbeat business activity reports from the region.
MSCI’s index of emerging market (EM) stocks .MSCIEF rose 0.1% by 8:29 GMT, on the first trading day of the final quarter of 2023.
The index suffered its biggest quarterly percentage loss in a year during the July-September period, weighed down by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance as well as renewed fears about China’s property sector debts.
The World Bank maintained its forecast for China’s 2023 economic growth at 5.1% but trimmed its prediction for 2024, citing persistent property sector weakness.
Markets in mainland China remained closed for the week-long National Day holiday.
The passage of a stopgap funding bill over the weekend which averted a U.S. government shutdown gave a lift to markets on Monday, and some analysts see further reasons for optimism in the near term.
“The authorities in China will continue to gradually add stimulus, which we expect to stabilize the economy later this quarter, while for the U.S. we do not expect any further rate hikes, although of course, ‘higher for longer’ is a risk, especially for EM local debt,” said Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging market macro strategy at TS Lombard.
Among currencies, the Russian rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX came off a near-seven-week low of 98.71 versus the dollar after data showed the country’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in more than six years in September.
Most currencies in central and eastern Europe also held firm against the euro. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= outpaced peers, rising 0.6% against the euro, as data showed seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index edged up to 47.4 in September
The Polish zloty EURPLN= gained 0.3% after a report signalled softening declines in the country’s manufacturing sector.
The Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 was flat against the dollar. The country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector rose to 49.6 last month from 49.0 in August.
Broader EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS fell 0.1% against a firm dollar with the yen JPY=EBS at a near one-year low.
Elsewhere, Credit Suisse has reached an 11th-hour out-of-court settlement with Mozambique over the decade-old, $1.5- billion-plus “tuna bond” scandal, the Swiss bank’s new owner UBS UBSG.S said on Sunday.
(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; editing by Mark Heinrich)
