Aug 1 (Reuters) – Emerging market stocks rose on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signalled it could start easing policy in September, while currencies across emerging Europe slipped amid weak manufacturing data for several economies.
In focus, the Czech crown lost 0.3% against the euro ahead of an expected 25 basis point (bps) rate reduction from the country’s central bank, slowing the pace of easing after four 50 bps cuts.
“We expect a hawkish outcome from today’s meeting … CZK has moved back above 25.400 EUR/CZK under the pressure of aggressive dovish pricing in recent days,” said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA forex and fixed income strategist at ING.
“In our view, the CZK has decent potential to rally from these levels.”
MSCI’s index of emerging market stocks rose 0.4%, tracking gains in global equities after Wednesday’s signal from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank could start easing rates in September if U.S. economic data continues on its current trajectory.
Lower borrowing costs in the U.S. typically weaken the dollar and lift the appeal of emerging market assets.
However, the dollar regained some ground after slipping for two straight sessions, with most currencies in emerging European economies weakening against the greenback.
Weaker manufacturing data also weighed, with the Hungarian forint losing 0.6% versus the euro, after manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory.
The Polish zloty dipped 0.2% against the euro, after S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index showed its manufacturing sector slowed its decline in July, but was still in contraction.
Ukraine was also in focus after it temporarily suspended international debt payments as it finalises a restructuring plan to slash $20 billion of international debt. However, the move is unlikely to trigger much concern in debt markets.
A bond maturing in 2026 rose about 1.5 cents on the dollar, while a bond that provides additional payments when the country’s economy grows was little changed.
MSCI’s International Emerging Markets Currency Index edged 0.1% higher after briefly touching its highest since mid-July.
Russia’s rouble strengthened 0.5% against the dollar, as worries about rising conflict in the Middle East lifted the price of oil, one of its main exports.
In equities, Turkish stocks jumped 1.7%, led by a 3.6% rise in its bank index.
Manufacturing in Turkey contracting for a fourth straight month, data showed.
Meanwhile, Nigerian security forces were deployed in major cities, while the government said it was open to dialogue ahead of planned protests against a cost of living crisis.
Weaker PMI data also weighed on Chinese shares, with a slump in its manufacturing activity leading generally weak readings across Asia’s factories in June.
(Reporting by Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; editing by Giles Elgood)
