KILIFI COUNTY, Kenya, Aug 22 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – When farmer Teresa Kahindi harvested nearly two tonnes of maize two years ago amid a severe drought, her neighbours in the Kenyan coastal county of Kilifi accused her of witchcraft.

Many of her fellow farmers had not produced even a single sack, weighing about 90 kg, of the staple, during the fifth consecutive season of almost no rain in eastern Kenya, where arid conditions can devastate harvests.

“They said I was a witch,” said Kahindi, 53, while strolling through her fields of black-eyed peas, mung beans, cassava, finger millet and sunflowers.”But it’s not true. We can’t farm like we used to do. Now we must rely on climate forecasts.”

Kahindi’s drought-defying harvest was thanks to a sophisticated early-warning system that includes cutting-edge meteorological data, radio and text alerts and on-the-ground teams that ensure communities can take pre-emptive action to avoid crop losses.

In March 2022, a month before the rainy season was due to begin, Kahindi was advised to adapt her plans at a seminar for farmers run by county officials.

She prepared her plots with manure to enhance water retention, covered the soil with dry grass mulching to reduce evaporation and planted drought-tolerant maize seeds, which require less water and mature faster than other varieties.

“Knowledge can transform farming,” says Kahindi.

Kenya’s early warning system, funded by the government and a patchwork of international agencies, may offer a template for countries to meet the United Nation’s 2022 goal to protect “all people on Earth” by 2027 through early warning systems.

The U.N. launched the Early Warnings for All Action Plan for Africa in Kenya’s capital of Nairobi last year in an effort to accelerate a slow rollout in other parts of the continent.

“In terms of early warning, Kenya stands out as a big brother for East Africa,” said Zablon Shilenje, the World Meteorological Organization’s coordinator for Africa.

REDUCING FAMINE RISK

As extreme weather events increase due to manmade climate change, the Kenyan model allows farmers to switch agricultural techniques or the crops they cultivate to adapt to predicted conditions, such as intense droughts or heavy floods.

Between 2020 and 2022, the Horn of Africa suffered its worst drought in at least 70 years, exacerbated by the climate phenomenon La Niña. Some 23 million people required humanitarian aid at a cost of more than $1.8 billion.

More people will be exposed to drought as the region’s population is set to double to 400 million by 2055.

Food security experts say Kenya’s early warning system has mitigated the impact of disasters – in turn minimising the likelihood of famine in one of the world’s most food insecure regions.

Between 2010 and 2011, when repeated droughts struck the East African nation, 2.8 million Kenyans were left “severely hungry.”

Thanks to early warnings, a million fewer people suffered during similar droughts in 2016 and 2017, even as the U.S. government halved its spending on food aid, according to a report by the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID.

The effort to predict droughts dates back to 1985 with the founding of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a USAID-funded programme that began in the aftermath of a catastrophic Ethiopia famine but now covers more than 50 countries.

Supported by Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and Agriculture Ministry, as well as international NGOs, the system uses high-resolution satellite, crop and other climate data to predict the risk of drought, sometimes up to eight months in advance.

Local authorities interpret, verify and communicate forecasts to millions of farmers through radio, television, SMS and WhatsApp messages and sometimes provide them with subsidised fertilisers and seeds.

“We are able to foresee severe events in a timely manner,” said David Gikungu, director of the Kenya Meteorological Department.

‘COME A LONG WAY’

Advances in data collection, modelling and satellite monitoring have helped make early warning more reliable over the years, said Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards Center at UC Santa Barbara, which processes most of FEWS NET’s data.

Other improvements include an understanding of the complex climatic conditions that drive drought in the Horn of Africa and the region’s communications infrastructure.

“We’ve really come a long way,” Funk said. “We have an impressive suite of tools now. It’s been successful in stopping people from starving.”

A study of FEWS NET data by U.S. researchers found 92 percent of early warnings in Kenya were accurate, aided by better monitoring of socioeconomic factors, such as food prices and violent conflict.

While Kenya’s early warning system is now highly accurate at predicting natural disasters, critics say decisionmakers don’t always act on time or with enough financial support.

“Unless the government and other stakeholders put up the resources, then it can’t work,” said James Odour, NDMA’s director from 2012 to 2022.

“Unless action is taken on the early warning, then it’s pointless.”

Nelson Mutanda, responsible for early warning systems at the NDMA, said the government instructed counties to allocate 2% of their annual budgets to early warning and gave local authorities the responsibility of managing funds.

“Counties have enough budget (to fund early warnings),” he said. “But some don’t prioritise it. They can’t come crying to us for support just because they haven’t properly prepared.”

He added: “And we expect farmers who are capable should take initiative without waiting for funding.”

‘LAST MILE’

Research suggests pre-emptive intervention can save billions of dollars. A 2022 report by the World Bank found that spending $1 billion on early warnings can avert $35 billion of disaster-related losses annually.

Another major challenge is disseminating warnings to rural populations.

In Kenya’s southern county of Kajiado, home to the pastoralist Indigenous Maasai, drought warnings may not be understood, due to illiteracy rates, or sometimes are not even delivered when there are gaps in government or humanitarian resources.

“I need help, I would accept training,” said Ole Mwato, a 46-year-old Maasai who lost 20 cows and 80 goats in the 2020-2022 droughts.

“It’s a lot of pain to lose the animals. There was no grass, no water. That’s why they died.”

Others are resistant to undertaking laborious tasks, such as digging pits to retain water, seeing it as a potential waste of time because past forecasts were unreliable or traditional cultural beliefs that say the rains are controlled by the gods.

To improve forecast accuracy, 50 low-cost, 3D-printed automatic weather stations, capable of sending highly accurate meteorological data every 15 minutes, are being installed by FEWS NET across Kenya, including three in Kilifi.

For now, Kahindi is leading by example, encouraging local farmers to adapt their methods to future weather in order to maximise yields.

“We must work together to beat famine,” she said.

(Reporting by Peter Yeung; Editing by Ayla Jean Yackley. The Thomson Reuters Foundation is the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters.)