Zambia is endowed with so many positive attributes. It has a strong mining industry, the right conditions for agriculture, plenty of sunshine for renewable energy, and Victoria Falls, one of the greatest natural attractions in the world. A stable political system and a young, hardworking population are helping the country recover from recent crises.
Building on these strengths with an enabling policy environment could position the country to attract critical investments from foreign and domestic sources. This will generate jobs, raise incomes and boost shared prosperity in the country.
In the new Zambia Country Private Sector Diagnostic, the World Bank Group finds that four sectors – mining, farming, renewable energy, and tourism – could attract up to $21 billion in cumulative new investments by 2030. These sectors could also create an additional 80,000 jobs as well as many more indirect livelihood opportunities in the economy.
A few well-chosen reforms will help Zambia get there. The report identified the four sectors for their potential to impact investment and boost economic growth in the context of feasible policy actions. Let’s look at each of these in turn.
In mining, attracting new investments requires a stable and predictable policy environment. Frequent changes to the mining tax regime—with 11 modifications in the past 19 years—have understandably made companies reluctant to make long term commitments in the sector.
The Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development could expand access to prospective areas through a transparent licensing system and tenure security. Two years ago, the government had to stop issuing mining licenses for eight months while it investigated corruption. When it resumed, there was a backlog of 2,000 applications.
Standardizing exploration licenses to ten years and introducing non-exclusive reconnaissance licenses to allow companies to collect geodata could unlock Zambia’s mineral resource potential.
In the renewable energy sector, Zambia is well-positioned to become a regional source of solar power. Right now, almost all the country’s energy comes from hydropower. But increasingly frequent droughts make hydropower less reliable, especially as electricity demand rises in the country.
The CPSD highlights the need for the state utility, ZESCO, to facilitate the smooth implementation of the already enacted laws enabling independent power producers to access the grid and sell power directly to customers, such as mining companies. This could unlock up to $1 billion in investments by 2030 and add up to 1,000 megawatts of installed solar capacity.
Zambia also has the potential to become a key player in regional agricultural markets. To enhance Zambia’s agricultural competitiveness, the government must rethink its market interventions. Currently, nearly 90 percent of the agriculture budget goes to the Farmer Input Support Program and the Food Reserve Agency. Reshaping these programs to fund crucial infrastructure like all-season roads and irrigation systems would improve market access, productivity, and resilience to climate shocks.
Finally, the report highlights that despite its remarkable attractions, Zambia lags behind other regional tourist destinations. In 2019, each international visitor contributed just $1,417 to the economy, compared to $3,650 in Kenya and $5,198 in Tanzania. The report emphasizes that Zambia could greatly benefit from an eco-friendly tourism industry, currently saddled with heavy regulatory costs, which could attract visitors from all over the world by making better use of its wildlife reserves and national parks.
Implementing these reforms will require sustained commitment from the government and all stakeholders, but the potential rewards—a more robust Zambian economy—will be worth the efforts.
Mary Porter Peschka is IFC’s Regional Director for Eastern Africa. Nathan Belete is the World Bank’s Country Director for Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
