JOHANNESBURG, Feb 7 (Reuters) – South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) party has a 75% chance of losing its majority in this year’s national elections, slated to be the most closely contested in the country’s democratic history, Standard Bank’s chief economist said on Wednesday.

The ANC has a 65% probability of getting between 45% and 50% of the vote and a 10% chance of falling below that, Goolam Ballim told a press briefing at which he set out the bank’s “early” election forecasts. He did not explain its methodology.

Cyril Ramaphosa is seeking a second term as president as his party risks losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela’s victory in 1994 ushered in democracy after decades of apartheid.

“(A) 45-50% (vote share) would intimate that the president will likely secure a second term,” Ballim said. “We don’t suspect that the election will derail… the reform agenda.”

Standard Bank’s forecast has the main opposition Democratic Alliance at 22.5%, the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters at 11%, the KwaZulu-Natal-centred Inkatha Freedom Party at 6% and the right wing Freedom Front Plus at 2.5%.

Rolling power cuts known as loadshedding will start to ease this year, with GDP growth forecast to pick up from 0.6% in 2023 to 1.2% this year, Ballim said.

The electricity shortages will still crimp growth in 2024 by up to 1 percentage point, Ballim said, while problems at state-owned rail and ports firm Transnet that have limited exports, will take 0.5 to 1 percentage point off.

(Reporting by Rachel Savage and Nqobile Dludla, Editing by Angus MacSwan)