The answer is a place which, I believe, will prove vital to world trade and global economic growth in the next 25 years – Africa.
At the United Nations General Assembly this month I met African leaders including the President of Mozambique, Filipe Nyusi, and Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima, to discuss how DP World, a long-time friend of the continent with 28,000 employees, can help realize its potential.
The numbers are striking. By 2050 Nigeria will be home to 400m, according to the UN, and is projected one day to eclipse China as the world’s second most populous nation.
The Democratic Republic of Congo – where we have made a $1.2bn investment in the Port of Banana – will experience a remarkable 122% population increase to become home to 218m.
Together with its natural resources and strategic location, Africa has the potential to be one of the engines of the global economy in just a few decades’ time.
A compelling commercial case, as well as a profound moral one, can therefore be made for businesses in the rest of the world to help Africa develop its supply chains now.
That’s why, on top of the $3bn we have already invested, we are committing another $3 billion over the next five years to build new port and logistics infrastructure across the continent. The ambition behind our growing end-to-end logistics capability is nothing less than to connect Africa umbilically to world trade.
The urgency is all the greater because of the current impact of geopolitical shocks. The situation in the Red Sea, where commercial shipping is at risk, is serious and may not improve soon. Conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, too, are a personal tragedy for those affected and another grave risk.
It is therefore no surprise that the Economist Impact’s Trade in Transition 2024 report, supported by DP World, revealed that 36% of respondents had prioritized ‘friendshoring’. While such strategies can boost resilience, the World Bank notes they may also mean shipping, logistics, and regulatory costs double the prices of internationally traded goods.
Africa can be a key part of the solution.
Firstly, its population is not only rising but also young, with nearly two thirds under the age of 30. That means a growing consumer market and a steady supply of youthful workers.
Secondly, Africa’s natural wealth is well known, from an abundance of precious metals to 20% of the world’s oil and gas reserves, all of which can help to drive trade partnerships in the coming years.
Thirdly, the continent is surrounded by the sea, with 38 of its 54 countries having direct access to open waters. It is also home to key maritime trade routes, giving it the most strategic location of any continent.
But this potential will not be realized until we address Africa’s challenges in connecting with global markets. Poor roads, ports, and rail networks add an alarming 30-40% to intra-continent trade costs.
We expanded our presence last year by adding Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port to our network. This year we secured an extension to run Mozambique’s Port of Maputo until 2058, where container capacity is projected to quadruple to 1m units a year. And we launched the Berbera Economic Zone in Somaliland, creating a world-class logistics hub to serve the broader Horn of Africa.
To maximise the transformative Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, public and private stakeholders from across the continent and beyond must work together.
Partnerships like DP World’s with CDC Group, the UK’s development finance institution, are blueprints for the future. Together, we have focused on modernizing, expanding and decarbonizing ports and inland logistics across Africa including in Senegal, Egypt and Somaliland.
Further investment is key. Initiatives are underway to nurture trade corridors, with projects like the Trans-Saharan Highway, Trans-African Railway and the African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network designed to improve connectivity and ultimately expand Africa’s role in global commerce.
By unlocking its economic potential, Africa will not only address its own developmental needs but also drive economic growth for people everywhere. I am optimistic that the role it can play in world trade in the decades ahead can be a hugely consequential one.