<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="562" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-820x562.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420926" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-820x562.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-300x206.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-131x90.jpg 131w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-768x526.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-1536x1053.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/AJ7JTKPKIVLLVHHLY5YH6EU57Y-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>FILE PHOTO: View of a COP27 sign on the road leading to the conference area in Egypt&#8217;s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh town as the city prepares to host the COP27 summit next month, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt October 20, 2022. REUTERS/Sayed Sheasha/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Africa needs cheap, affordable and modern energy solutions to realise its development goals.&nbsp;<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2021&amp;locations=ZG&amp;start=1961">Projections</a>&nbsp;show that one in four of the world’s people will be sub-Saharan African in 2050. As the region’s population and incomes grow, the pace of industry, commerce and agriculture will accelerate. Yet, 600 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity.



<a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/6fa5a6c0-ca73-4a7f-a243-fb5e83ecfb94/AfricaEnergyOutlook2022.pdf">According to the IEA</a>, demand for modern energy in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to expand by a third in the next decade. Moreover, power generation capacity will need to increase&nbsp;<a href="https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC118432">ten-fold by 2065</a>&nbsp;to meet projected electricity demands.



Africa accounts for only 3% of cumulative global CO2 emissions, but it is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/how-south-africa-s-recent-floods-compel-climate-action/">disproportionately affected</a>&nbsp;by the impacts of climate change. Of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change, seven are located in Africa.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, the region faces the complex challenge of growing its economies along with the pressing mandate for emissions reduction.



There is no doubt that Africa will need to increase its energy consumption to drive economic growth and achieve development goals. Although emissions are decreasing in other regions, Africa’s CO2 emissions are poised to grow in the coming decades. The&nbsp;<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc64f/pdf">growth rate in energy-related CO2 emissions</a>&nbsp;in Africa over the last two decades is 123%, considerably greater than the world average of 60%, due largely to the high rate of population growth. Indeed, shifting from a growth powered by cheap fossil fuels to low-emission and climate-resilient economies requires both bolder policies and vast investments.



Current climate financing commitments fall woefully short of the region’s needs. In 2009, at COP15 in Copenhagen, developed countries agreed to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 to developing countries. While, in 2020, a total of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/aggregate-trends-of-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-by-developed-countries-in-2013-2020.pdf">$ 83.3 billion in climate finance was mobilised</a>; but of this, only $20 billion was directed to Africa. Climate finance flowing from all sources reached&nbsp;<a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2021/">$632 billion in 2019/2020</a>, with Africa receiving just 3% of this. Given the scale of need, at COP26 the Africa Group of Negotiators called for&nbsp;<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/3_11_21_%2520Joint_CPR_New%2520Goal.pdf">$</a><a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/3_11_21_%20Joint_CPR_New%20Goal.pdf">1.3 trillion in climate finance</a>&nbsp;annually starting in 2030.



Other notable outcomes for Africa from COP26, included a reaffirmation of the $100 billion pledge in climate funding for developing countries; a commitment to double finance for adaptation; clearer rules around carbon markets; and heightened attention to losses and damage.



Bridging Africa’s climate financing gap



The&nbsp;<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_10_add1_adv.pdf">Glasgow Climate Pact</a>&nbsp;noted its ‘regret’ that the developed countries were not able to mobilise the financing pledged at COP15. Indeed, climate financing is again likely to be the most contentious issue at the upcoming COP27 (dubbed Africa’s COP) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.



The current finance architecture and mechanisms for accessing finance are not meeting Africa’s needs. Financing Africa&#8217;s green energy transition requires a major ramp-up in the scale and quality of investments in infrastructure,&nbsp;climate innovations, climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy and biodiversity.



Concessional loans from bilateral and multilateral donors&nbsp;<a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-from-oecd-secretary-general-mathias-cormann-on-climate-finance-in-2019.htm">account for over two-thirds of climate financing</a>&nbsp;to African countries. Despite the climate pact’s emphasis on ‘grants’ and ‘highly concessional forms of finance,’ however, this source of financing will not match the trillions required to achieve low-carbon development. And a heavy dependence on loans for financing Africa&#8217;s green energy transition is neither an optimal nor sustainable cause of action.



Specifically, the pandemic has had a negative impact on Africa’s sovereign debt situation: resulting in half of the region’s countries in either&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/ft/dsa/DSAlist.pdf">debt distress or at high risk of debt distress</a>. On average, the region’s economies collected&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/COVID-and-debt.pdf">13.6% less revenue than projected</a>&nbsp;in 2020 and 9.3% less in 2021. Furthermore, eleven countries are experiencing double-digit inflation, worsening an already heavy debt-service burden.&nbsp;<a href="http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=982147881&amp;Country=Nigeria&amp;topic=Economy&amp;subtopic=Outlook&amp;subsubtopic=Financial">One in five African countries dedicate 20% or more of foreign-exchange</a>&nbsp;income to external debt servicing and this burden is much larger for a handful of highly-leveraged states. Undoubtedly, private investment and private finance, including innovative financing solutions, will have to play a bigger role.



Innovative financing solutions



Perhaps the most promising outcome of COP26 was the&nbsp;Just Energy Transition Partnership&nbsp;(JETP) between the governments of South Africa and the International Partners Group (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union). The JETP aims to accelerate the decarbonisation of South Africa&#8217;s economy, with a focus on the electricity system, by mobilising an initial amount of $8.5 billion over the next three to five years through various mechanisms, including grants, concessional loans, investments and risk-sharing instruments. The success of the JETP could serve as a model for climate financing in Africa, particularly if it has a systemic regional approach.



Negotiating for climate finance is important, but more policy imagination will be needed to integrate climate action into development agendas. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) serves as a framework for the region’s green transition — by promoting green industries and trade-related policies. For example, investment in lithium-ion battery manufacturing on the continent should be a priority. By shifting battery manufacturing downstream to where many of the critical inputs are sourced, such as to the DRC, where 70% of the global cobalt supply is produced, the region can become a critical hub in the global supply chain for electric vehicles.



Additionally, given the region’s debt situation, debt-for-nature swaps could be an effective instrument for diverse climate financing. Debt-for-nature swaps are financial transactions in which a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/05/03/CF-Belize-swapping-debt-for-nature">portion of a country&#8217;s foreign debt is forgiven</a>&nbsp;in exchange for local investments in environmental conservation measures. In the current economic downturn, this instrument is likely to be more appealing to developed countries than issuing new loans and grants.



Finally, carbon credit mechanisms are an effective tool for both preserving and restoring ecosystems and generating additional revenues for governments. African countries have the potential to meet&nbsp;<a href="https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/sites/default/files/2022-07/2022-forum-report.pdf">30% of the world’s sequestration needs by 2050</a>. And the United Nations Economic Commission of Africa estimates that with optimal pricing, Africa can&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2022/08/africa-trade-carbon-credits-fund-renewable-energy-expert/">generate between $15 and $82 billion annually</a>&nbsp;by trading carbon credits with emitters. A lack of finance and capacity, however, has prevented African governments from participating in global carbon markets. Building a regional registry and a market exchange for carbon credits would create transparency and protect against price volatility.



These solutions are far from exhaustive, but they will be integral components of the region’s broader strategy to decouple growth from CO2 emissions, including the exploitation of natural gas as a transition fuel.

FILE PHOTO: Egypt prepares to host the COP27 summit

Why financing Africa’s green energy transition should be the focus of COP27

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420864" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GettyImages-1288028873-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>The Burj al Arab is illuminated in beams of light in Souk Madinat Jumeirah. (Photo by: Tyson Paul/Loop Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Katerina joins Jumeirah Group from Radisson Hotel Group, where, as President Asia-Pacific since 2017, she led the execution of a comprehensive five-year strategic and operating plan



DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, October 26, 2022/ &#8212;&nbsp;Dubai Holding, a diversified global investment company with presence in over 13 countries, today announced the appointment of Katerina Giannouka as the new Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Jumeirah Group (<a href="https://r.news.africa-wire.com/mk/cl/f/qtK7RiEBCy3eiTIF6kDyY_YFq2b2Mb5xF-YrxB__AwHIJzFwvrozrd9-OsxXh2-fuSCeZau5dVGMJvy5xvlhn2Zih7bI8S07RshUQtLpPSqfO1vJmBOxa1xHwqZnufB6ybIuk74KN07_vGTTOBR-3QtW7bfZ9le9Nc1Y9lUSaP3VxZ2TQyAYHhM_dj0AiBWnrdm-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.Jumeirah.com</a>) as of December 2022.



A recognised professional in the international hospitality industry, Giannouka joins Jumeirah Group with 20 years of experience in business leadership, operations, hotel development, asset management and strategic advisory.



Katerina joins Jumeirah Group from Radisson Hotel Group, where, as President Asia-Pacific since 2017, she led the execution of a comprehensive five-year strategic and operating plan, delivering unprecedented growth of nearly doubling the size of the hotel portfolio. Prior to this, Katerina led the Asia-Pacific and China Development team of ultra-luxury Rosewood Hotels &amp; Resorts, where beyond delivering growth, she played an influential role in supporting new brand development, corporate decision making and strategic planning.



Commenting on her appointment, Amit Kaushal, Group Chief Executive Officer, Dubai Holding, said: “We are delighted to welcome Katerina as the new Chief Executive Officer of Jumeirah Group. Over the years, Jumeirah has become synonymous with excellence, providing guests from across the globe with unique and unrivalled experiences. Given Katerina’s impressive track record as a transformative business leader, as well as her luxury hospitality background and drive to create resilient teams and culture, I am confident that she will build on Jumeirah’s incredible success story and lead the business to new levels of sustainable and accelerated growth across the world.”



For her part, Katerina Giannouka, incoming Chief Executive Officer, Jumeirah Group, said: “I am honoured to be entrusted and appointed to this key role with Jumeirah Group.&nbsp; Jumeirah operates some of the world’s most iconic hotels and has redefined luxury hospitality with its exceptional and beyond-expectations service offering. The opportunities for Jumeirah are extremely exciting, and I eagerly look forward to commencing this new journey alongside the entire team to unlock the immense potential of the Jumeirah brand and sustainably secure its position on the world stage as the top luxury Emirati hospitality brand recognised and sought-after globally.”



Today, Jumeirah Group is a national champion, a member of Dubai Holding and a global luxury hotel company, which operates a world-class 6,500-key portfolio of 25 luxury properties across the Middle East, Europe and Asia.

GettyImages-1288028873-2

Dubai Holding Appoints Katerina Giannouka as New Chief Executive Officer of Jumeirah Group

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="740" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-1110x740.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-395422" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/GettyImages-1131125549-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>oMalayitsha (transporters) Charles and his colleagues buy groceries for family which will be transported across the border to Zimbabwe on February 20, 2019. &#8211; Items are loaded in Johannesburg onto trailers attached to minibuses which make the 550 kilometres (340 miles) journey north to the border of Zimbabwe, where economic situation has dramatically deteriorated, pushing inflation above 50 percent, and shortages of household essentials have become widespread. (Photo by GULSHAN KHAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read GULSHAN KHAN/AFP via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2022/10/14/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-october-2022?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Sub-Saharan Africa</a>&nbsp;faces one of the most challenging economic environments in years, marked by a slow recovery from the pandemic, rising food and energy prices, and high levels of public debt. One of the most urgent issues confronting the region is the need to tackle decade-high levels of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2022/October/English/RisingInflationNote.ashx?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">inflation</a>—which are devastating incomes and food security—while also supporting growth.



While there are big differences between countries, the median of inflation rates in the region increased to almost 9 percent in August. And even though the rise has been less dramatic than in other parts of the world, and the drivers are different, inflation is nearly double pre-pandemic levels, risking social and political instability and worsening food insecurity.<a></a>



Despite a rebound last year, the fallout from the pandemic has kept domestic economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa relatively muted, and we expect growth in the region to slow this year. Most countries in the region have lacked the resources to support and stimulate growth, in sharp contrast to richer countries elsewhere that could inject trillions of dollars into their economies.



In sub-Saharan Africa, inflation has been driven less by domestic activity than in advanced economies. Instead, external developments have shaped the path of inflation since the start of the pandemic. They include the sharp spike in global commodity prices, swings in the exchange rate, global supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters.



In the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/30/global-food-crisis-demands-support-for-people-open-trade-bigger-local-harvests?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">case of food</a>, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/26/africa-food-prices-are-soaring-amid-high-import-reliance?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">prices of key staples</a>&nbsp;such as maize and wheat have increased since 2019, contributing two-thirds of overall inflation in fragile states and one-half elsewhere in the region. Higher global energy prices and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/14/how-countries-should-respond-to-the-strong-dollar?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">strong dollar</a>&nbsp;have also fed through to inflation indirectly, via transportation and tradable goods like household products.



By contrast, there have been only modest increases for the prices of goods and services that most reflect domestic demand pressures, so-called nontradables—which typically include any locally-produced services, such as in the hospitality, health, or education sectors.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="538" height="538" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-1-4_crop.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420660" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-1-4_crop.jpg 538w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-1-4_crop-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-1-4_crop-90x90.jpg 90w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px" /></figure>



With food and energy accounting for half of household consumption in sub-Saharan Africa, living costs across the region have spiraled. The IMF estimates that 12 percent of the region’s population will face acute&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2022/October/English/FoodSecurityNote.ashx?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">food insecurity</a>&nbsp;by the end of this year.



Many countries have therefore turned to subsidies and tax cuts to alleviate the squeeze in household incomes. These measures should be temporary and as well targeted as possible to maximize their impact and minimize their costs on already-stretched budgets.



Central banks across the region had already started raising interest rates in response to rising inflation, capital outflows and currency depreciation resulting from monetary policy tightening in advanced economies. Examples include Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda and the economic and monetary unions for both Central and West Africa.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="538" height="718" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-2-3x4-19_crop.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420661" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-2-3x4-19_crop.jpg 538w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-2-3x4-19_crop-225x300.jpg 225w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-chart-2-3x4-19_crop-67x90.jpg 67w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px" /></figure>



Monetary authorities also find themselves facing an increasingly delicate trade-off: raising rates to keep inflation in check will risk choking off credit for investment, depressing economic activity, and reducing incomes. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation and the global slowdown weigh on domestic economic activity.



That means central banks should proceed with caution and raise interest rates gradually so as not to jeopardize the recovery. But policymakers must also not be complacent: countries where domestic demand pressures are acute, or inflation is very high may need to tighten faster or more decisively.



The same applies to countries where monetary policy credibility is weak, the currency is depreciating rapidly, or foreign exchange reserves are shrinking. While countries with exchange rates that are fixed or heavily managed have, so far, experienced lower inflation than those with more flexible regimes, their ability to control the pace of interest-rate increases is constrained by their currency arrangement.



There are some concerns that monetary policy could still be too accommodative, given that rate increases have not kept pace with inflation. Policy coordination can help. Fiscal consolidation has a role to play in countries where policy is too loose, as can a combination of rate increases and currency depreciation.



Given sub-Saharan Africa’s fragile recovery, combined with the fact that domestic demand pressures have not so far been an important driver of inflation, policymakers must proceed with caution in coming months while closely monitoring inflation.



—&nbsp;This blog, which draws on the October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, reflects additional research contributions from Seung Mo Choi, Samson M’boueke, and Cleary Haines.



<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/20/africas-inflation-among-regions-most-urgent-challents?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="450" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-table-44-01-63-45-43_crop-450x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-420662" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-table-44-01-63-45-43_crop-450x800.png 450w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-table-44-01-63-45-43_crop-169x300.png 169w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-table-44-01-63-45-43_crop-51x90.png 51w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/afr-reo-table-44-01-63-45-43_crop.png 538w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px" /></figure>

SAFRICA-ZIMBABWE-ECONOMY-TRADE

Africa’s Inflation Among Region’s Most Urgent Challenges

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-800x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420499" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-800x800.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-90x90.jpg 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-768x768.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



Johannesburg, South Africa, 13 October 2022:&nbsp;The iconic Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg will now be known as the DP World Wanderers Stadium, after the leading global logistics provider announced an agreement on naming rights at an unveiling ceremony today.



The DP World Wanderers Stadium naming rights is accompanied by the sponsorship of the DP World Gauteng Lions men’s and women’s cricket teams – a further commitment to the advancement of sport in South Africa.



Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman &amp; Chief Executive Officer at DP World, said: “We place a strong emphasis on empowering and supporting the local people and communities in which we operate, while delivering sustainable and inclusive growth. Taking over the naming rights of the most iconic stadium in Africa is part of our commitment to developing and driving business, sports and culture on the continent. The DP World Wanderers Stadium is a solid extension of our global partnership network and one that we believe will be a catalyst for our positioning on the African continent”.



The partnership with the Lions and Wanderers Stadium marks a new milestone in realising DP World’s ambition to build its international reputation and inspire the next generation. These are two organisations who share a winning mindset and a bold, collaborative approach with the goal of reshaping the future of our businesses, disrupting our industries, and leading in our respective fields.



DP World aims to utilise this partnership as a platform from which to drive awareness of various socio-economic issues such as gender-based violence, support South African sporting heroes, and continue to make a positive impact on the country and the continent as a whole.



“We are focused on building a better future together and what better way to do it than through sport, which has an intrinsic ability to inspire, motivate and unite people. We look forward to this partnership, as part of our larger commitment to Africa and her people,” Bin Sulayem added.



The DP World Wanderers Stadium is a premier multi-purpose entertainment space, known throughout the world, and aims to bring South African and international visitors together to connect around shared interests and collective passions – such as sport, music and fundraising.



This convergence of business and sporting talent provides a powerful platform for DP World to build brand awareness and understanding both globally and in Africa. We already support the business of sport, providing smart logistics solutions that help move the equipment and infrastructure needed for major sporting events, and we help ensure consumer sporting goods are traded across global markets.

DP-World-Wanderers-Stadium

DP World reaffirms commitment to developing African sport and culture

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="581" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-820x581.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419263" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-820x581.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-300x213.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-127x90.jpg 127w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-768x544.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-1536x1088.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Karen Keylock, Nedbank, National Franchise Manager</figcaption></figure>



While Covid-19 put the brakes on the economy, the post-pandemic recovery has almost been stymied by the ongoing Russian war on Ukraine and the impending fears of a US recession, contributing negatively to economies around the world. Through the most challenging hurdles, however, the franchise sector in South Africa has remained steadfast in its goals to grow the economy and create jobs. This sector, which employs an estimated 350&nbsp;000, is a rock on which the economy is built.



Statistics from the Franchise Association of South Africa (FASA) estimate that the country’s franchise industry contributes around 15% (R721&nbsp;billion) to gross domestic product (GDP). This figure is&nbsp;the total market value of all finished goods and services produced in&nbsp;the country during a specific period.



Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) revealed that more than 1 000 small businesses shut down in the first six months of 2021. Likewise, the Small Business Institute noted that as many as 70% of small businesses in South Africa fail in the first five years.



Therefore, considering the sector’s strength during tough times, there is evidence that investing in a franchise is one way that entrepreneurs can remain sustainable, get assistance from their franchisor, and ride out any storm.



South Africa’s challenges are many, notwithstanding the uncertainty and loss of business brought about by load-shedding However, with the pandemic having eased amid fears of another variant being forecast by the Department of Health for the end of October, businesses are looking towards speeding up growth opportunities so that they can increase their financial strength.



This takes on greater significance if you consider that in the post-pandemic phase, Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey – Q1 2021 showed that the official unemployment rate was 32,6% in the first quarter. FASA labelled unemployment the most significant concern among youth (15 to 34 age bracket). FASA took it a step further, working with partners to transform the industry by working with stakeholders to create franchise opportunities in and around townships in South Africa. Introducing the franchise business model and franchise manager occupational training in and around townships aims to empower and inspire youth to take up franchise opportunities. Such initiatives must be supported because they serve the dual purpose of helping to grow the economy and create jobs.



The government has called on the fuel industry to meet significant transformation objectives in the next five years to ensure essential compliance with the Fuel Liquid Charter and a sustainable enterprise. As a bank, we are proud to have played a vital role in helping drive transformation in the fuel sector in line with these transformation targets for the industry.



Like most other countries, South Africa’s fuel industry is of strategic importance to ensuring energy security and economic growth. According to the South African Petroleum Industry Association, the fuel subsector contributes about 8% to the country’s GDP, which is approximately R300 billion in production output. There are about 5 000 petrol stations across all brands, creating over 700 000 direct and indirect job opportunities that make up 5% of total formal employment in South Africa.&nbsp;Sustained business growth is crucial for expanding any economy, but this growth shouldn’t come at a high cost. By understanding business growth trends that focus on more than increasing the bottom lines, businesses can look ahead with confidence, mainly if backed by a money expert committed to doing good.



As a bank, we have identified four key trends dominating and accelerating business growth in South Africa. Without a doubt, the most important – and a legal imperative – is transformation.



This is an imperative of South Africa, given the country’s history, and one which Nedbank Commercial Banking maintains is advanced not only through ownership, but also through sufficient education, value chain inclusion, job creation and supporting minor and micro-enterprises.



Another critical imperative meant to stimulate growth is understanding that climate resilience speaks to what businesses are doing to contribute to sustaining the environment while ensuring the growth of the economy.



As a bank, we believe that sustainability is broader than climate resilience. While sustainability is essentially about preserving the environment and the responsible use of natural resources, it is also about the upliftment of society. Understanding that this should not negatively impact franchisors and franchisees, but rather help drive business growth positively.



Without a doubt, it has been seen that companies making their mark in the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be those that understand the drivers of value, such as data, artificial intelligence, machine learning, digitisation and e-commerce. Embracing digital tools must be done in a way that ensures that clients continue to enjoy a great experience and receive expert advice whenever they need it.



One superb example of this is Nedbank’s innovative app Avo, which has received plaudits for bringing consumers and businesses together; accurately matching consumers’ lifestyle needs to product and service offerings through powerful artificial intelligence; allowing safe and secure payments, all while providing bank-grade security. Avo has taken the power of selling into the homes of millions of citizens. Whether users need home services, to shop online for groceries, takeaways or great tech deals, or to search for the next family holiday, entertainment options or security solutions, Avo let’s them do it all! The new Avo B2B Marketplace, a digital marketplace for businesses to buy from or sell to other companies, will increase this footprint further.



Inevitably, a robust supply chain is essential to foster business growth. But your banker can help make rands and cents of the current challenges and help unlock opportunities for growth.



The franchise team at Nedbank Commercial Banking can help your business to align with these and other trends to realise growth. Talk to your business manager or contact us at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:%20business@nedbank.co.za" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">business@nedbank.co.za</a>&nbsp;for more information and assistance.

Karen-Keylock-2

Accelerating business growth in South Africa’s franchise sector

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-820x546.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420487" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/D2-OC-13-min-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



A Showcase of Africa&#8217;s Aerospace and Defence:&nbsp; 21 &#8211; 25 September 2022



It should come as no surprise that this 11th edition of Africa’s premier aerospace and defence exhibition (AAD) is more than 20 years old in its current format.



Actually, AAD’s history dates back much further: to a civilian air show first hosted in 1975 at Johannesburg’s Lanseria Airport in which CAASA – the Commercial Aviation Association of South Africa, one of our current AAD partners – played a key role. Besides CAASA, our other partners in AAD are the South African Department of Defence &amp; Military Veterans, the Armaments Corporation of South Africa (Armscor), and the South African Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Industry Association (AMD).



At the prompting of the then Chief of the South African Air Force, the public was given insight in the country’s military aviation and land systems through a military exhibition in Pretoria. Called DEXSA, defence exhibition of South Africa, it eventually merged with the civilian air show to become Aerospace Africa in 2000, subsequently called Africa Aerospace &amp; Defence (AAD).



Since then, AAD has grown in stature. It is the oldest exhibition of its kind in Africa. Hosted every two years at Air Force Base Waterkloof, it temporarily moved to Cape Town from 2006 to 2010, and in line with events worldwide, the AAD2020 edition was cancelled due to worldwide Covid-19 lockdown regulations.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-back-in-business">Back in business</h2>



It is no exaggeration to state that AAD remains the largest gathering of aerospace and defence industry enterprises on the African continent. In addition, we invite numerous high-level international delegations, including defence, air force and navy chiefs, as well as top business executives. The three trade days of the show, book-ended by pertinent technology conferences and seminars, on-site hospitality suites, as well as static and mobility displays, all offer a conducive environment for significant B2B engagements.



At the last event (2018), no less than 34 countries – up from 30 at the previous event – were represented as exhibitors, with 15 national pavilions. The event attracted close to 34,000 trade visitors from South Africa and abroad, in addition to 55,000 air show visitors on the public days.



Importantly, some 12,000 school learners attended as part of our Youth Development Programme (YDP), which aims to create awareness of career opportunities in aviation and defence, as well as the broader industrial environment of high technology.



The regular YDP affords many of these youngsters their first close-up encounter with aircraft, helicopters, and defence systems here at AAD. For the most part, they only see aircraft flying in the sky, whereas here they might even go on board.



What they learn is that some of the technology they use daily, such as a smart phone with moving maps and GPS, was developed by the aerospace and defence industries. Having personal interaction with exhibitors and the industry in general, these learners may appreciate the value of Mathematics, Science and Technology as school subjects. The aim of our YDP is for the youth to explore possibilities of vacation work, internships and even bursaries for tertiary studies.



AAD is the only international defence exhibition and conference on the African continent demonstrating the latest technology across land, sea and air sectors of defence.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">AAD2022</h2>



This 11th edition of AAD is hosted in the aftermath of serious global events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and instability in various regions.



Interestingly, air travel has returned to pre-2019 (Covid) levels, as International Air Transport Association (IATA) analyses show. It stated that the rebound continues despite inflation and high jet fuel prices. Cargo volumes have also increased significantly globally and in Africa.



The air transport sector in South Africa supports close to 500,000 jobs and contributes significantly to the country&#8217;s GDP.



Global military spending is also on an upward trajectory, with SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) saying in April 2022 that military expenditure has now passed $2 trillion for the first time. As global tensions rise, defence spending is rising.



For these reasons, the defence industry, along with the air transport sector, sees Africa Aerospace &amp; Defence (AAD) as key to unlocking potential. AAD is therefore a must for exhibitors and delegations.



Moreover, South Africa’s National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) has given formal approval to the AAD organisers and partners to host the event this year.



Given the rising global threats on many fronts, including socio-economic, AAD2022 is hosting a strong conference profile under the theme of Exploring New Paths, Sharing Solutions, Showcasing Innovation and Capabilities.



The net is cast wide, to get leading academics, innovators, researchers, and industry role-players to drill into the Mining, Energy, Gas and Oil, Agriculture and Transport sectors, besides the aerospace and defence spheres. Some of the conferences scheduled from 21 to 23 September include UAVs (drones), counter-terrorism, cyber-security, general aviation, and medical solutions.



The conference and networking programme is designed to enable virtual exhibitors and sponsors to engage with all in-person and virtual delegates before and during AAD2022, as well as for two months after the event. It also allows live-streaming from exhibitor booths.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Important to note</h2>



As its earlier editions, AAD2022 is the only exhibition in Africa simultaneously featuring defence and aerospace technologies at the same venue.



The combined exhibition and air show takes place at AFB Waterkloof in Pretoria, the administrative capital of South Africa. As a military base operated by the South African Air Force (SAAF), it benefits from military grade security and access control, further secured by the South African Police Service, the city&#8217;s Metropolitan Police and AAD&#8217;s contracted private security.



The site boasts easy road access from several directions to manned entrances around the walled perimeter, with ample parking in and around the air base. In addition, visitors using the fast Gautrain rail service from OR Tambo International Airport arrive at the nearby Centurion station within 20 minutes where taxis and dedicated Gautrain buses are available.



Pretoria is also served by the Lanseria International Airport (40 minutes away) and the Wonderboom airport north of the city. Visiting aircraft can land at AFB Waterkloof, subject to pre-approval and air traffic controls.



As the previous events, AAD 2022 is hosted over five days, of which the first three days are official trade days (closed to the public), followed by two public days with numerous air displays throughout the weekend.



Moreover, for the first time, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones, will participate in the air displays.



A new feature of AAD is the display of technologies pertaining to the transport, mining, and energy sectors, notably renewables and gas. In the drive towards eliminating or reducing carbon emissions, these technologies are gaining traction across a broad front. AAD2022 aims to strengthen the hand of our stakeholders in this regard.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Health</h2>



South Africa has lifted its national state of disaster in relation to Covid-19 regulations in April 2022, which means masks are no longer mandatory, but are recommended, especially in crowded or closed environments. It is advisable to be fully vaccinated, although visitors are no longer required to show a vaccination certificate for travel to South Africa.



While cases of monkeypox have been detected in South Africa, the health authorities state the actual number is negligible. “The risk of monkeypox to the South African population remains low, given the low transmissibility of the virus,” according to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD).



A feature of AAD has always been the presence and participation of the South African Military Health Services (SAMHS). It is one of the few military medical services independent of the three traditional services (army, air force and navy), having existed since 1912. It is a combat



support services providing medical, general health and limited nuclear, chemical, and biological defence support to the other services.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">AAD infrastructure</h2>



The exhibition offers 54,000 square meters of indoor and outdoor space, including seven (7) large aircraft hangars to accommodate exhibitors and national pavilions. In addition, visiting delegations are hosted in hospitality suites facing the runway with a prime view on the daily aerial display and vehicle mobility arena.



Stand building contractors, logistics companies and catering services have been appointed for the benefit of exhibitors. All relevant information on the general rules for stand building, especially the movement of equipment, build-up and breakdown, can be found on the AAD website: <a href="https://www.aadexpo.co.za/exhibitors/stand-builders-information">https://www.aadexpo.co.za/exhibitors/stand-builders-information</a>



The AAD cloud-based Mobile is handy for exhibitors and visitors to obtain much useful information before, during and after the event.



All exhibitors and trade visitors are required to register for the event. This is done online at: <a href="http://www.aadexpo.co.za">www.aadexpo.co.za</a> where a live link is provided. Tickets for the public air show (24 and 25 September) are available through Computicket.



In addition to the daily air display, AAD has an outdoor vehicle mobility track to showcase the capabilities of various kinds of land vehicles and military manoeuvres often involving pyrotecnics.



Provision has been made for networking, VIP entertainment, mini conferences and product launches in the well-appointed engagement theatres and premier lounge. A dedicated media centre and photo vantage sites service the needs of some 400 international and local accredited journalists and photographers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Media opportunities</h2>



Major international and domestic media organisations are official partners of AAD2022, with DefenceWeb producing the official AAD2022 Show Daily in digital format. Each day a fresh issue and back-issues of the Show Daily will be available online and accessible to readers worldwide. This offers exhibitors a wonderful opportunity to showcase their products and technologies to a wider audience, both through editorial publicity, including photographs and video, and advertising.



For photographers and videographers, AAD2022 has dedicated viewing areas to enable optimal capture opportunities. All these media professionals are required to register online to be duly accredited.



Sponsorship opportunities abound for exhibiting companies to feature their brand across the entire venue and through the media outlets.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">AAD support</h2>



The current edition of the exhibition and air show is hosted by AMD. The event is managed through a partnership between the South African Department of Defence &amp; Military Veterans, Armscor, the South African Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Industry Association (AMD) and the Commercial Aviation Association of South Africa (CAASA). Each entity has an opportunity to host the event on a rotation basis.



AAD2022 is further supported by strategic partners, notably the Gauteng Growth and Development Agency (GGDA) , City of Tshwane SAA and Gautrain.



AAD&#8217;s event partners are counterpart international exhibitions, i.e. EDEX ( Egypt) and FIDAE (Santiago de Chile).



Institutional support is provided by several government departments, including State Security, Trade &amp; Industry (DTI) and International Relations &amp; Cooperation (DIRCO), as well as the South African Police Service and the Tshwane Metro Police.



For more information, contact:



Exhibition Director: Michelle Nxumalo Cell: +27 84 840 3215 &#8211; Email: expodir@aadexpo.co.za



or Nakedi Phasha: Marketing &amp; Communications Manager Cell: +27 82 544 3339 &#8211; Email: marketingcomms@aadexpo.co.za

D2-OC-13-min

AFRICA AEROSPACE & DEFENCE 2022

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="728" height="485" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420053" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY.jpg 728w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/5K52FDSDWFNOJEMWHZY6GIWIVY-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px" /><figcaption>The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2017. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



The global economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by&nbsp;persistent and broadening&nbsp;inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China.



Our <a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDUsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL1B1YmxpY2F0aW9ucy9XRU8vSXNzdWVzLzIwMjIvMTAvMTEvd29ybGQtZWNvbm9taWMtb3V0bG9vay1vY3RvYmVyLTIwMjI_dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWdvdmRlbGl2ZXJ5In0.xBtVeJmAGgXbJvjcd07iMyK-ZW9kKLLtwG7dJU8nSsQ/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">global growth forecast</a> for this year is unchanged at 3.2 percent, while our projection for next year is lowered to 2.7 percent—0.2 percentage points lower than the <a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDYsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL1B1YmxpY2F0aW9ucy9XRU8vSXNzdWVzLzIwMjIvMDcvMjYvd29ybGQtZWNvbm9taWMtb3V0bG9vay11cGRhdGUtanVseS0yMDIyP3V0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1nb3ZkZWxpdmVyeSJ9.Eonvc3NvnjqBD2i9OMaUQ2_VrJ7J44Bjk4rLRBPrAIY/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">July forecast</a>. The 2023 slowdown will be broad-based, with countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy poised to contract this year or next. The three largest economies, the United States, China, and the euro area will continue to stall. Overall, this year’s shocks will re-open economic wounds that were only partially healed post-pandemic. In short, the worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.



In the United States, the tightening of monetary and financial conditions will slow growth to 1 percent next year. In China, we have lowered next year’s growth forecast to 4.4 percent due to a weakening property sector and continued lockdowns.



The slowdown is most pronounced in the euro area, where the energy crisis caused by the war will continue to take a heavy toll, reducing growth to 0.5 percent in 2023.



Almost everywhere, rapidly rising prices, especially of food and energy, are causing serious hardship for households, particularly for the poor.



Despite the economic slowdown, inflation pressures are proving broader and more persistent than anticipated. Global inflation is now expected to peak at 9.5 percent this year before decelerating to 4.1 percent by 2024. Inflation is also broadening well beyond food and energy. Global core inflation rose from an annualized monthly rate of 4.2 percent at end-2021 to 6.7 percent in July for the median country.



Downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, while policy trade-offs to address the cost-of-living crisis have become more challenging. Among the ones highlighted in our report:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy miscalibration has risen sharply amid high uncertainty and growing fragilities.</li><li>Global financial conditions could deteriorate, and the dollar strengthen further, should turmoil in financial markets erupt, pushing investors towards safe assets. This would add significantly to inflation pressures and financial fragilities in the rest of the world, especially emerging markets and developing economies.</li><li>Inflation could, yet again, prove more persistent, especially if labor markets remain extremely tight.</li><li>Finally, the war in Ukraine is still raging and further escalation can exacerbate the energy crisis.</li></ul>



Our <a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDksInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL1B1YmxpY2F0aW9ucy9XRU8vSXNzdWVzLzIwMjIvMTAvMTEvd29ybGQtZWNvbm9taWMtb3V0bG9vay1vY3RvYmVyLTIwMjI_dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWdvdmRlbGl2ZXJ5In0.U2NUrJS1hv1hDIDEYoHFP1koHY0zsTOZBT_f-Egbl-k/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">latest outlook</a> also assesses the risks around our baseline projections. We estimate that there is about a one in four probability that global growth next year could fall below the historically low level of 2 percent. If many of the risks materialize, global growth would decline to 1.1 percent with quasi stagnant income-per-capita in 2023. According to our calculations, the likelihood of such an adverse outcome, or worse, is 10 percent to 15 percent.



Cost-of-living crisis



Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability. Central banks are now laser-focused on restoring price stability, and the pace of tightening has accelerated sharply.



There are risks of both under- and over-tightening. Under-tightening would further entrench inflation, erode the credibility of central banks, and de-anchor inflation expectations. As history teaches us, this would only increase the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control.



Over-tightening risks pushing the global economy into an unnecessarily severe recession. Financial markets may also struggle with overly rapid tightening. Yet, the costs of these policy mistakes are not symmetric. The hard-won credibility of central banks could be undermined if they misjudge yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation. This would prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability. Where necessary, financial policy should ensure that markets remain stable. However, central banks need to keep a steady hand with monetary policy firmly focused on taming inflation.



Formulating the appropriate fiscal response to the cost-of-living crisis has become a serious challenge. Let me mention a few key principles.



First, fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation. Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.



Second, the energy crisis, especially in Europe, is not a transitory shock. The geopolitical realignment of energy supplies in the wake of the war is broad and permanent. Winter 2022 will be challenging, but winter 2023 will likely be worse. Price signals will be essential to curb energy demand and stimulate supply. Price controls, untargeted subsidies, or export bans are fiscally costly and lead to excess demand, undersupply, misallocation, and rationing. They rarely work. Fiscal policy should instead aim to protect the most vulnerable through targeted and temporary transfers.



Third, fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification. Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.



Effects of a strong dollar



For many emerging markets, the strength of the dollar is a major challenge. The dollar is now at its strongest since the early 2000s, although the appreciation is most pronounced against currencies of advanced economies. So far, the rise appears mostly driven by fundamental forces such as tightening US monetary policy and the energy crisis.



The appropriate response in most emerging and developing countries is to calibrate monetary policy to maintain price stability, while letting exchange rates adjust, conserving valuable foreign exchange reserves for when financial conditions really worsen.



As the global economy is headed for stormy waters, now is the time for emerging market policymakers to batten down the hatches.



Eligible countries with sound policies should urgently consider improving their liquidity buffers, including by requesting access to precautionary instruments from the Fund. Countries should also aim to minimize the impact of future financial turmoil through a combination of preemptive macroprudential and capital flow measures, where appropriate, in line with our&nbsp;<a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMTIsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL1RvcGljcy9JUEYtSW50ZWdyYXRlZC1Qb2xpY3ktRnJhbWV3b3JrP3V0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1nb3ZkZWxpdmVyeSJ9.lPYzk9igGxQVNoyO071v9ldHmg5V-zWZtj8ILK0xwAY/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Integrated Policy Framework</a>.



Too many low-income countries are in or near debt distress. Progress toward orderly debt restructurings through the&nbsp;<a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMTMsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL0Jsb2dzL0FydGljbGVzLzIwMjEvMTIvMDIvYmxvZzEyMDIyMXRoZS1nMjAtY29tbW9uLWZyYW1ld29yay1mb3ItZGVidC10cmVhdG1lbnRzLW11c3QtYmUtc3RlcHBlZC11cD91dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9Z292ZGVsaXZlcnkifQ.GGvRq8rucqnSFuEvFBvhXMgyI-wh78SKlLbyhfB_agU/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Group of Twenty’s Common Framework</a>&nbsp;for the most affected is urgently needed to avert a wave of sovereign debt crisis. Time may soon run out.



The energy and food crises, coupled with extreme summer temperatures, are stark reminders of what an uncontrolled climate transition would look like. Progress on climate policies, as well as on debt resolution and other targeted multilateral issues, will prove that a focused multilateralism can, indeed, achieve progress for all and succeed in overcoming&nbsp;<a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMTQsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjEwMTEuNjQ5NTIyMDEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5pbWYub3JnL2VuL0Jsb2dzL0FydGljbGVzLzIwMjIvMDUvMjIvYmxvZy13aHktd2UtbXVzdC1yZXNpc3QtZ2VvZWNvbm9taWMtZnJhZ21lbnRhdGlvbj91dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9Z292ZGVsaXZlcnkifQ.3p002h7bluo72Fpw2feMxw94S2WhDsL0_vZZTtZxSlA/s/1121717145/br/145541864671-l" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">geoeconomic fragmentation</a>&nbsp;pressures.

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund logo is seen at IMF headquarters in Washington

Policymakers Need Steady Hand as Storm Clouds Gather Over Global Economy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420311" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Large-DTCM_Bluewaters-Island_Ain-Dubai-0.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



With the event industry finally opening up again after a Covid-induced hiatus, Dubai’s Department for Economy and Tourism (DET), brought their first roadshow in two years to South Africa.



In what was a display of their ongoing activities on the African continent, the multi city roadshow which started in Cape Town, moving on to Durban and culminating in Johannesburg demonstrated Dubai’s renewed commitment to South Africa. Following the hugely successful three city tour in South Africa, DET headed East in continuation of its ongoing activities in sub–Saharan Africa with Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya on the roadshow itinerary.



The intention was to showcase Dubai’s affordable experiences and the diversity of the city’s offerings to key travel partners as well as SA Tourism and Brand SA in South Africa. Noteworthy highlights during the roadshow included travel, hospitality, entertainment and Dubai’s citywide events, with a focus on leisure, family travel, education and medical tourism. Breakout network sessions, partner presentations, one-on-one meetings, and medical facility updates were key elements which enhanced the programme.



Dubai, renowned for its continuous drive to establish, maintain and show its safe, open, and accessible sides, has been ranked the No.1 global destination in the TripAdvisor Travellers’ Choice Awards 2022. The new tourism figures from DET show that overall, Dubai hotels maintained an average occupancy level of 76 per cent from January to May 2022. According to data from hotel management analytics firm STR, Dubai ranked No.1 globally in hotel occupancy, ahead of other international destinations including New York (61 per cent), London (60 per cent) and Paris (57 per cent), for the January-April 2022 period. These are impressive stats in a post-Covid marketplace.



Individual presentations made by the roadshow delegates shone a new spotlight on experiences in their city. Travel to Dubai is not only for the privileged few with its dazzling night life and world-class restaurants. There is a plethora of experiences which cost little to nothing available to be enjoyed ranging from visiting art galleries and exploring museums at the waterfront souk to drives in the desert and lazy days the beach swimming in tranquil ocean with beautiful views. Click on&nbsp;<a href="https://whatson.ae/2022/06/free-things-to-do-in-dubai-2/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">this link</a>&nbsp;to find out more about Dubai experiences that won’t break the bank.



Feedback from attendees at the roadshow offered positive feedback. Nomafrench Mbombo, Provincial Minister of Health for the Western Cape commented that she had never thought of Dubai as a ‘must-see’ place to visit but was “now seriously considering a trip there” after seeing what Dubai as a city has to offer to South Africans. She said she was particularly interested what the medical facilities have to offer and would review possibilities that may exist around “health exchange programmes”.



Melody Williams said: “I was pleasantly surprised at how affordable Dubai is and I am impressed by the number of new attractions that have arisen in recent years, the Museum of the Future, the Aura Pool and the Frame.”



Mr. Tareq Binbrek, Assistant Manager, International Relations (Africa) for Dubai Tourism (DET), commented: “Africa is a significant market for Dubai Tourism. This is our first roadshow post pandemic, and we are happy to be back. We were delighted to work closely with our trade partners and speak directly to our audience. A lot of new and exciting things have come up in Dubai since our last visit to this region and so we savoured the opportunity to share the good news with all of our African travellers.”



Some of the organisations that accompanied DET to South Africa included Hotels, Hospitals and other stakeholders in the Dubai Tourism ecosystem.



HOTELS &#8211; 25hours Hotel Dubai One Central L.L.C, Aloft Hotel City Centre Deira Dubai, Atlantis The Palm Hotel &amp; Resort, Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach, Golden Sands Hotel Apartments, Jumeirah Group, Habtoor Palace, LXR Hotels &amp; Resorts L.L.C, Pullman Dubai Creek City Centre, Radisson Blu Hotel &#8211; Dubai Deira Creek, Radisson Hotel Group, Rove La Mer Hotel L.L.C, S L S Hotel and Residences Dubai L.L.C, Swiss Hotel Alghuraair L.L.C, TRYP by Wyndham Dubai and also Terra Sol Hospitality Services.



HEALTHCARE &#8211; Dubai Healthcare Authority in the company of select private hospitals.



ATTRACTIONS &#8211; Dubai Parks &amp; Resorts, The View At The Palm L.L.C.



AIRLINES &#8211; Emirates Airline.



DESTINATION MANAGEMENT COMPANIES &#8211; Arrival Gate Tourism, Dusk Travel and Tourism, Groups Travel Tourism, Liberty International Tourism

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Dubai Tourism successfully showcases offering in SA

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="816" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-816x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420082" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-816x800.jpg 816w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-300x294.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-92x90.jpg 92w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-768x753.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-1536x1506.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/William-Asiko-1.2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 816px) 100vw, 816px" /><figcaption>William Asiko, Vice President of the Africa Region Office, The Rockefeller Foundation</figcaption></figure>



The devastating floods in Pakistan have affected 33 million people, many of whom are among the country’s most vulnerable. Closer to home, millions of people in the greater Horn of Africa face hunger and starvation as the region faces one of its worst droughts in decades.



At the same time, the war in Ukraine has highlighted the global north&#8217;s continued dependence on fossil fuels and their vulnerability to energy insecurity. Energy prices have risen steeply since early 2022, exposing &#8216;Europe&#8217;s economies strategic and ethical dilemma.



While in a meaningful way, climate change requires a collaborative global agenda, Africa is not currently at the table, and the positions being taken in Africa are largely reactive. We must change the narrative from Africa being victims of climate change requiring help, to Africa, a champion of climate action and mitigation.



As citizens of Africa, we have been conditioned to believe we are helpless in a global world. It is time to take back control, write our narrative and be the masters of our destiny. Coupled with having the youngest and fastest growing population on earth, we have enormous untapped opportunities to place us firmly at the table of the climate debate.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-africa-s-twin-challenges">Africa&#8217;s Twin Challenges</h2>



Africa contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite being a minor contributor to global emissions, the continent is among the most vulnerable to its negative effects. Our low emissions are often positioned on the worldwide stage in a positive light; however, it has come at a developmental cost – Africa&#8217;s twin challenges.



Firstly, Africa did not become a low emitter by choice, or knowingly embark on an intentional journey towards climate action. Our low emissions are symptomatic of significant underinvestment in power generation and infrastructure over the years.



Secondly, due to this low investment, there is a severe lack of access to reliable electricity on the continent. Earlier this year, a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said 600 million people living in Africa, or 43% of the continent&#8217;s population, lack access to reliable electricity.



Energy, in general, underpins economic growth, and reliable access to electricity is crucial to Africa&#8217;s development. No country in the world has eliminated poverty without first eliminating energy poverty.&nbsp; Africa&#8217;s rapidly growing population will require a reliable energy supply to power industrial production, electrify households and expand the use of transport to drive economic activity. Therefore, Africa&#8217;s position on the global stage as it relates to climate action, must also address the twin challenges of a lack of electricity and investment in its generation.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The African Opportunity</h2>



I am convinced that Africa can develop a narrative that attracts people to want to engage us on climate action on a win-win basis. With this outcome in mind, our narrative should include three elements. Firstly, we have an enormous opportunity to develop carbon credit programs on the continent, many success stories can be scaled, and new ones developed. This is largely within our control through policy commitments and appropriate incentives. &nbsp;Developers are looking for bankable opportunities but require policymakers to create an environment which attracts investment into this space.



Several organizations have launched an initiative to establish a concrete action plan to stimulate the production of carbon credits across the continent at scale. By COP 27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt this November, we hope to see an overall ambition for voluntary carbon markets in Africa established, lighthouse projects identified, and a concrete roadmap for the years ahead developed. If successful, it will radically reduce the time it takes to generate credits, increase the underlying quality of African carbon credits enabling them to command a price premium, and significantly increase the volume of credits.



Secondly, we have limitless untapped renewable energy sources. We require a policy regime that encourages the private sector, both foreign and domestic, to invest in demonstrably profitable renewable energy projects. The IEA has noted that renewables, including solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal, could account for over 80% of Africa&#8217;s new power generation capacity by 2030. While our continent is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally, we only have 1% of the world&#8217;s installed solar energy capacity. In the medium to long-term, Africa has an immense opportunity to produce and export green energy to sunshine-poor northern climates.



The Rockefeller Foundation, IKEA Foundation, and Bezos Earth Fund joined forces to launch the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) at COP26 and is already working to deliver transformational programs in partnership with countries across Africa. With national governments, GEAPP leverages its convening power, distinct and rare philanthropic capital, expertise, and a network of 18 Alliance partners to design, finance, and execute renewable energy projects.



Finally, our narrative needs to take account of our abundance of labour that is willing and able to work on these projects. 60% of our continent&#8217;s population is under the age of 25, with a median age of 19 years. We are also facing rapid urbanization, with Africa&#8217;s urban population expected to nearly triple to over 1.3 billion people by 2050, who will need access to goods, services, and job opportunities.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Time for Action</h2>



There is a vital role for both the public and private sectors to play on this journey. The public sector controls policy and the legislative agenda – a considerable part of what is required to get this done. They also maintain relationships with some of the world&#8217;s biggest most prominent development finance institutions. Ultimately, their responsibility is to create a conducive environment for large-scale investments. This could include tax breaks for those investing in renewables, permitting the repatriation of profits for foreign investors, and coming to market with bankable projects with the necessary approvals and government support.



The private sector brings with it commercial capital, expertise, and innovation. Therefore, the two sectors need to work in mutually beneficial harmony. They need to come together and develop a harmonious agenda so that the private sector invests at scale to benefit our people.&nbsp; Philanthropy can be a great convener and facilitator of this.



Africa&#8217;s starting point on this journey is developing a new, bold narrative. The Rockefeller Foundation could play an important role as a convenor that brings stakeholders together to discuss the issues and develop a coherent narrative that accurately depicts Africa as it exists right now. We could also share this with the relevant institutions to secure important buy-ins to make this a successful endeavour for the people of Africa



A common, realistic position adopted by African states that paints us in a positive light, not as victims, but as key role players in addressing climate change, will help shift dynamics and ensure that we take our rightful seat at the table in global discussions. We want the world to see Africa as the best investment destination for green energy projects and carbon credit programs with our limited natural resources and abundant labour. It is up to us Africans to realize this potential and become champions in the climate debate.

This Was Captured by Tintseh

Africa Must Position Itself as a Champion of Climate Action

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-410222" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b-120x80.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/28334431792_0f328c02ec_b.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Woman Using a Hoe to Till the Soil on Small Tanzania Farm
Photo: via Flickr</figcaption></figure>



To understand the real challenges of farmers, it is necessary to spend a considerable amount of time on the ground talking to farmers and to get a better feel of the markets. In such engagements in the last week of August 2022, one theme that came up time and again in most discussions with role players in the sector, is the need for the diversification of the export markets to non-traditional regions while retaining the sector’s foothold in key markets such as the European Union.



Other issues that keep farmers sitting up and scratching their heads at night are the need to improve logistics – roads, rail and ports; expansion of agricultural finance, particularly developmental finance or flexible finance products for the new entrant farmers, and strengthening of trust between government and the industry. Let us look at these themes in turn.



Firstly, the need to export markets has become even more urgent as agricultural output consistently improves and the country has limited capacity to absorb new produce. South Africa already exports half of its produce, in value terms. Therefore, the efforts of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan to boost production have to emphasize the expansion of the export markets.



Japan, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Philippines and South Korea are amongst some of the key markets in which South African agribusinesses are interested in expanding their presence. Recent actions from the EU and China (two of the largest export destinations currently) to place non-tariff barriers, hurting South Africa&#8217;s interests and export activities, highlight the importance of diversifying destination markets.



Resolving the non-tariff barriers challenge or expansion to new markets is not a job of the private sector or organized agriculture alone. The government should work hand-in-hand with the industry stakeholders in creating a &#8220;South Africa Inc.&#8221; plan for widening exports. The building blocks for such a plan are already in the agriculture and agro-processing master plan. Still, given the urgency of this matter, South Africa needs a dedicated working group that will champion the expansion of the country&#8217;s agriculture exports and work towards servicing the existing markets to avoid challenges such as the constraints faced by the citrus industry in the EU or wool in China.



Secondly, the need for network industries&#8217; improvements was highlighted as there haven&#8217;t been material improvements, particularly on roads. The agricultural sector role-players are in regular conversations with Transnet regarding the effectiveness and efficiency of the ports. So far, Transnet has been open to engagements and efficient in resolving challenges such as rebuilding the port of Durban following the destructive floods.



Going forward, private sector role players want to explore possibilities of better partnerships in the various nodes of the ports, which could help improve efficiencies, not only for agriculture but a range of industries such as mining and automobile, amongst others.



Thirdly, agricultural finance is another topic that has received attention in various engagements. This encompasses the Blended Finance programme led by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, which should be open to all agribusinesses and financial institutions, and separately, the Land Bank, which could also play a key role in supporting the new entrant farmers to the sector, as well as the existing commercial farmers. This area will require increased focus during phase two of implementing the agriculture and agro-processing master plan. Still, the Blended Finance instrument from the government should include all agribusinesses and financial institutions in the sector.



At the same time, the government should also support the reform of a critical developmental finance institution i.e., the Land Bank, which has a long history in the sector. The goal should be to build agricultural finance instruments that help grow the agriculture and agribusiness sectors of &#8220;South Africa Inc.&#8221;.



Fourthly, the broad issue of &#8220;trust&#8221;, &#8220;accountability&#8221;, as well as &#8220;monitoring and evaluation&#8221; are all key to building credibility. This is trust amongst the sector role-players and with the government. The first step in building trust will be to deliver on promises or various aspects affecting the sector.



The government can lead in this effort by implementing reforms outlined in the agriculture and agro-processing mater plan, particularly the parts that do not require capital spending but legislative amendments.



These could be aspects of <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/agricultural-product-standards-act-6-mar-2015-1127#:~:text=The%20Agricultural%20Product%20Standards%20Act,for%20matters%20connected%20therewith.">Agricultural Product Standards Act 119 of 1990</a> (around the thorny issue of assignees that the industry does not desire or view as value adding to the sector) and aspects of the need for the modernization of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/fertilizers-farm-feeds-seeds-and-remedies-act-28-may-2015-1101">Fertilizers, Farm Feeds, Seeds and Remedies Act 36 of 1947</a> (there is already work underway, which could be accelerated), and intensify efforts to open more export markets for South African agriculture, as a few examples. One can summarize this as the following, which are points we made sometime in 2021:&nbsp;&nbsp;



What should the government/DALRRD do in the near term?



What should the private sector do?



These are not exhaustive but we believe are interventions that could move the needle in terms of translating the ideas on paper in various plans into tangible projects that could contribute to the growth and job creation in South Africa&#8217;s agriculture.



In sum, South Africa&#8217;s agricultural sector faces numerous challenges, which are now well understood by both the government and various industry stakeholders. South Africa needs a plan of action, particularly on the four areas of interventions that were consistently outlined in various farmer and agribusinesses engagements we had this past week.



Notably, these haven&#8217;t changed from aspects that bothered sector role-players a year ago, which means we haven&#8217;t moved the needle. As agriculture is one of the sectors that will help grow the economy, there needs to be increased attention on the reforms necessary to unlocking the inclusive growth, and consequently job creation.&nbsp;



Wandile Sihlobo is chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and author of “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Finding-Common-Ground-Equity-Agriculture-ebook/dp/B084G1XS88">Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture</a>”.

28334431792_0f328c02ec_b

Challenges that keep South African farming community up at night

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="235" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-820x235.png" alt="" class="wp-image-419861" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-820x235.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-300x86.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-160x46.png 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-768x220.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image.png 1374w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>(Photo: Artush/iStock by Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



The toll of extreme weather events on crops underscores the region’s challenges and need for policies to save lives and protect livelihoods.



Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia’s war in Ukraine and the pandemic are also adding to food shortages and high prices. Climate events, which destroy crops and disrupt food transport, are disproportionately common in the region. One-third of the world’s droughts occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and Ethiopia and Kenya are enduring one of the worst in at least four decades. Countries such as Chad are also being severely impacted by torrential rains and floods. The resulting rise in poverty and other human costs are compounded by cascading macroeconomic effects, including slower economic growth. A new IMF policy paper examines how fiscal and financial policies and reforms such as technology transfer can reduce this damage and help countries adapt.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1-800x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-419862" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1-800x800.png 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1-300x300.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1-90x90.png 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1-768x768.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-1.png 880w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



Food supplies and prices are especially vulnerable to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa because of a lack of resilience to climatic events, food import dependence, and excessive government intervention. Most people live in rural agricultural and fishing communities that can’t afford infrastructure to protect them from adverse weather. For example, they depend on rain to water their crops, and less than 1 percent of arable land is equipped with irrigation. Weather-sensitive domestic food production results in heavy reliance on imports, with some 85 percent coming from outside the region. While food imports can provide a buffer to domestic shocks, inflation spurred by weather shocks in regions where imports are produced can be passed on to consumers. Similarly, weather events that raise the cost of transportation are also passed on. The resulting high food-import costs can erode foreign reserves and weigh on exchange rates, contributing to more rapid price gains.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2-800x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-419863" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2-800x800.png 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2-300x300.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2-90x90.png 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2-768x768.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-2.png 867w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



Against this backdrop, governments often try to help by intervening in agricultural production and food distribution. Untargeted interventions can be inefficient and weigh on national budgets, inflate food prices, impede competition, and reduce crop yields. For example, price controls and numerous and lengthy regulatory processes contribute to shortages by disincentivizing food production, storage, and trade. Similarly, subsidies for fertilizer and seeds drive overuse and suppress crop diversification. On the other hand, targeted government involvement can have merit, such as supporting research and development in building resilience and agricultural productivity. Prioritizing policies around those that best protect the poor will be key amid financing and capacity constraints.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3-800x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-419864" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3-800x800.png 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3-300x300.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3-90x90.png 90w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3-768x768.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/image-3.png 867w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>



Fiscal and financial policies Protecting food production and distribution from weather events begins with climate-resilient infrastructure. This type of public investment also creates jobs and can catalyze private investment. Consider, for example, solar power that facilitates irrigation, water access, and temperature control for food storage. Equally impactful is a flood barrier that protects ports and roads critical to food distribution.



Digitalization is also crucial. It gives farmers access to early warning systems and mobile banking as well as platforms to purchase fertilizers, seeds, or sell produce, helping to connect small producers to large vendors. Social cash transfers that are targeted and far-reaching help people buy food and rebuild after weather shocks. They further allow families and small businesses to invest in resilience-building equipment and technology. By offering people control of the support they receive these cash transfers are more effective at containing inequality than agricultural subsidies. Access to finance from private markets can play a similar role to social assistance. Raising it requires developing financial markets, which can take time. In the interim, micro-finance or public-private partnerships can help provide credit to people who currently don’t have access through banks. To this end, establishing collateral through advances in property rights is crucial. With World Bank support, Mozambique and Tanzania are expanding title and survey registers and developing digital land administrative services. A pilot project in Ghana uses blockchain technology to improve incomplete or missing land records. Cost-effective structural reforms Trade liberalization and import diversification could help stabilize regional food supply and prices. Zambia’s big maize harvests, for example, could have helped offset shortfalls elsewhere in Southern Africa if not for a ban on exporting the crop. Access to larger markets can incentivize investment in agricultural production networks and value chains. It can also help spread knowledge—such as how to plant drought-resistant crops—and spur competition. One positive step in this direction is the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement among 54 countries, which covers most goods and services. Empowered producer organizations can reach remote climate-vulnerable agricultural communities. This would help spread new technologies such as digital pest-control devices and high-yield seeds that tolerate heat and drought and improve climate adaptation training and market information. Aggregating production and selling directly to consumers can help to increase negotiating power, which in turn reduces storage costs, lengthens contracts, expands profit margins and opens access to new markets. By streamlining and better targeting regulations, governments can help farmers build resilience. For example, appropriate water-use regulations reduce the cost for farmers to establish and expand irrigation systems. Along the same lines, efficient seed registration, like in Kenya, multiplies seed supply and access to resilient seeds. Finally, fertilizer testing, labeling, and registration requirements help farmers access contaminant-free fertilizers appropriate for specific weather shocks, soil, and crops.



Financing, capacity development, and transfer of technology and know-how will be key to supporting the policies outlined above. With mounting debt and limits to raising taxes, countries in sub-Saharan Africa will need grants and concessional finance. Development partners can also support resilience-building research and can propagate climate and financial literacy. The IMF is supporting countries in these efforts including through climate-oriented public financial management advice and lending facilities such as our Resilience and Sustainability Trust. Soon to be operational, this new lending facility will provide longer-term affordable financing to address climate change and other challenges.

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How Africa Can Escape Chronic Food Insecurity Amid Climate Change

South Africa is faced with many socio-economic challenges; principally, sluggish growth and high levels of unemployment.&nbsp;



In response to Government’s objectives to create much needed growth and employment opportunities, the Gauteng Provincial Government has established the Gauteng IDZ, a Special Purpose Vehicle mandated with development of the OR Tambo International Airport SEZ (also known as OR Tambo SEZ).



In support of the OR Tambo SEZ’s competitive location, focus of the Gauteng IDZ is promote the manufacturing and export of high-value, lightweight or low-mass products through OR Tambo International Airport.&nbsp;



Presently conceptualised around three approved SEZ locations, the first Precinct of the OR Tambo SEZ is focused on agro-processing and mineral beneficiation.  To-date, a 22 735m² food manufacturing facility has been delivered, creating over 2 500 operational jobs. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419833" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/In2Food_Photography-Samples-13.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



The remaining part of the first Precinct (also referred to ORTIA Precinct 1) is the subject of construction work already underway, with development of a Jewellery Manufacturing Precinct (“JMP”).&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-development-concept-of-the-jmp">The Development Concept of the JMP</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="580" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-820x580.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419834" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-820x580.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-300x212.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-127x90.jpg 127w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-768x543.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-1536x1086.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Designed in a cluster approach, the 27&nbsp;239m² Jewellery precinct development aims to aggregate the production and export of beneficiated products through OR Tambo International.&nbsp; Specifically, the master plan of the JMP provides for the presence of various role players, all contributing to an effective value chain of production and support services, in proximity to one another. These include a metals refinery, jewellery and diamond manufacturers as well as globally reputable logistics companies key for the movement of beneficiated goods to the Airport apron.



In addition, the national regulatory agency established to consider and approve licences necessary to beneficiate or trade minerals in South Africa is also located at the Park.&nbsp;



An enterprise development Hub that aims to ensure that the requisite support is provided to emerging enterprises in this sector also has a presence.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Mineral Beneficiation?</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="709" height="472" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Karen-Bhengu-sunflower-ring.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419835" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Karen-Bhengu-sunflower-ring.jpg 709w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Karen-Bhengu-sunflower-ring-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Karen-Bhengu-sunflower-ring-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 709px) 100vw, 709px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="747" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-820x747.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419836" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-820x747.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-300x273.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-99x90.jpg 99w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-768x700.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-1536x1400.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Alex-Djoko-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



The Gauteng IDZ chose to develop a Jewellery Manufacturing Hub in response to the significant challenges faced by the jewellery and diamond industry in South Africa in the recent past, where it has experienced a steep decline since the early 2000s with a lot of lost job and employment opportunities. This is despite Africa continuing to be home to most of the world’s mineral reserves.&nbsp;



With significant global structural changes that have seen a shift from historical markets, development of the Jewellery Manufacturing Precinct aims to support African jewellery and diamond manufacturers with the production and export of beneficiated metal products from Africa for global consumption.



Supported by the South African Special Economic Zone regime, the JMP provides export manufacturing investors located at the Park with access to incentives packaged as part of the national SEZ programme; these include VAT exemption and relief from import customs and excise duties.&nbsp; This is because an SEZ is a delineated geographic area set aside for economic activities and supported by special means that are aimed at promoting national economic growth. These special means include, amongst others, access to SEZ incentives and government support in development of infrastructure.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Economic Impact of the JMP</h2>



In support of South Africa’s comparative mineral endowment, the JMP will create a globally competitive mineral beneficiation cluster that supports the creation of much needed jobs whilst also contributing to South Africa’s beneficiation of minerals mined in Africa.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Development Status</h2>



A globally competitive gold refinery and jewellery manufacturer is already operating form the JMP since April 2021. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="459" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-820x459.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419837" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-820x459.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-300x168.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-768x430.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-1536x860.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MetCon-Building-JMP-8-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



In addition, an 8 000m² building housing the South African Diamonds and Precious Metals Regulator (including the Diamond Exchange and Export Centre) and the State Diamond Trader has also been operational since September 2021.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="545" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-820x545.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419838" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-820x545.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-300x199.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-136x90.jpg 136w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-768x510.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-1536x1020.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Super-Block-Outside-Photos-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Work on the remaining buildings is at an advanced stage and is earmarked for completion by the end of 2022.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="369" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-820x369.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419839" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-820x369.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-300x135.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-160x72.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-768x346.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM-1536x691.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.48-AM.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="369" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-820x369.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419840" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-820x369.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-300x135.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-160x72.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-768x346.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM-1536x691.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.49-AM.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="369" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-820x369.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419841" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-820x369.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-300x135.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-160x72.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-768x346.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3-1536x691.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.53-AM-3.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="369" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-820x369.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-419842" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-820x369.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-300x135.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-160x72.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-768x346.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1-1536x691.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WhatsApp-Image-2022-08-31-at-10.32.52-AM-1.jpeg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



For more information on the investment opportunities at OR Tambo SEZ, email info@gidz.co.za

JMP-TOP-STRUCTURES-Render-1

Promoting African Jewellery on the Global Stage

<figure class="wp-block-image alignwide size-full"><a href="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920.jpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1080" height="1920" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-420006" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920.jpg 1080w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920-169x300.jpg 169w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920-450x800.jpg 450w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920-51x90.jpg 51w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920-768x1365.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SAPOA-Convention-Speakers-_1080x1920-864x1536.jpg 864w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px" /></a></figure>



The SAPOA Annual Convention and Property Networking – 2022 promises to remain true to its history of encouraging engaging conversations and deliberation on issues of pertinence with the commercial property sector.&nbsp; We are excited about the many eagerly awaited enhancements that this year’s event will bring.



After a hiatus of eight years, the property event of the year returns to the internationally acclaimed Sun City in the North-West Province. The recently renovated resort is unlike anything in the world, offering mountain views, a key national park and an iconic golf course all under one roof.



The theme this year is #tomorrow.



Over the last decade our economy has barely grown, investment has dwindled, and the rate of unemployment has increased. The past two years have been equally challenging.



Today we are still feeling the effects of several years of corruption, the erosion of important public institutions and the resultant of policy malaise. The property sector has felt the effects at an alarming rate in the form of the weakening economy, decreasing investor confidence, rising municipal costs, water and electricity crises, high tenant vacancies and the like.



But even in the face of such great challenges, hope continues to spring eternal in the hearts of South Africans who are determined that they will not yield to despair, to undertake the detailed work required to turn our tomorrow around. The industry looks to the leaders for answers on what is in store for the property sector, exploring the opportunities, disruptors and technology heading our way.&nbsp; The Convention’s programme will address these and other issues to ensure that the sector continues to inspire further development and productivity through achieving specific outcomes.



SAPOA is privileged to partner with Attacq, Dipula Income Fund, Fortress , Growthpoint Properties, Liberty Two Degrees, Pareto, Remote Metering Solutions and Resilient to host the annual property event of the year.

CNBC-BANNER-1080×1920-300dpi

SAPOA Annual Convention and Property Networking – 2022

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419620" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Africa-planting.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



By Agnes Kalibata, President of AGRA &amp; Claudia Sadoff, Executive Managing Director of CGIAR



The repercussions of the global food crisis, coupled with a protracted drought and a challenging pandemic recovery, make the forthcoming harvest season in many parts of Africa even more critical for governments and farmers.



With more than&nbsp;<a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/02-08-2022-who-launches-appeal-to-respond-to-urgent-health-needs-in-the-greater-horn-of-africa" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">37.5 million</a>&nbsp;people across the Horn of Africa alone on the verge of selling their possessions to be able to afford basic nourishment, the proper functioning of food systems to harvest, process and distribute food is presently a matter of life or famine.



At the same time, today’s “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1116152" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">perfect storm</a>” will not be the last to upend African agriculture and food security, as climate change continues to bring yet more unpredictability, demanding constant innovation.



There is a window of opportunity, small as it might be, in the next three to 12 months for African decision-makers to invest shrewdly in scaling up proven solutions that can both avert the worst of the current crisis and build long-term resilience.



In recent decades, our two organisations have worked closely with national partners to develop, test and deploy innovations that improve smallholder productivity, livelihoods and resilience to shocks in line with&nbsp;the African Union’s Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) Malabo Commitments.



African countries now urgently need to fast-track the uptake of agricultural solutions with the greatest potential for immediate impact as well as lasting sustainability at the scale of millions of farmers.



Several innovations – if deployed now – could offer immediate benefit from high-yield, nutrient-dense and drought-resistant varieties, to better agronomy and soil management. At the same time, real-time monitoring of food and input price volatility can best inform effective regional and national policy responses.



CGIAR has done extensive research in food and input price volatility monitoring, with the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/tools/excessive-food-price-variability-early-warning-system" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Excessive Food Price Volatility Early Warning System</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/tools/COVID-19-food-trade-policy-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker</a>, developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), helping international agencies to identify and coordinate around areas of concern.



At a country level, AGRA translates this information alongside other sources into an easy-to-use monthly Food Security Monitor for policymakers.



However, current monitoring tools and early warning systems cannot yet precisely assess the impacts of global shocks on&nbsp;domestic food security&nbsp;and nutrition, or the impacts of domestic shocks at the household level.



Scaling up the model for real-time tracking, while also developing more country-specific analyses, would equip governments with the data needed to minimize disruption to food supplies, direct food assistance programs, and anticipate malnutrition or social unrest.



Similarly, improved, high-yield and underutilized local crops are another weapon in the arsenal that can be deployed at a greater scale both to fill production and nutrition gaps now while also reducing dependence on a handful of staple cereals and food imports in the long-term.



The&nbsp;<a href="https://taat-africa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TAAT-Wheat-Compact.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">wheat compact</a>&nbsp;under the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) initiative, supported by the African Development Bank and implemented by CGIAR, has already deployed more than 30 heat tolerant varieties benefitting 1.5 million people. Further gains are planned under&nbsp;<a href="https://www.iita.org/news-item/stakeholders-prepare-for-taat-2-after-a-successful-first-phase/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TAAT II</a>&nbsp;in support of CAADP while the Center of Excellence in Africa&#8217;s Seed Systems (CESSA) launched by AGRA provides an opportunity for countries to strengthen seeds systems.



Finally, innovations that address and fill the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/the-missing-link-making-women-part-of-the-response-to-the-global-food-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">gender gap</a>&nbsp;in African agriculture can have an instant impact by fully leveraging the extensive role of women as producers, entrepreneurs, caregivers and mothers.



Research indicates that farm yields would increase by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/52011/icode/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">up to 30 per cent</a>&nbsp;and hunger would fall by up to 17 per cent if women had the same access to productive resources as men.



AGRA’s&nbsp;<a href="https://agra.org/value4her/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">VALUE4HER</a>&nbsp;initiative includes&nbsp;Africa’s first digital marketplace designed for women, who own a third of small and medium enterprises, and&nbsp;provides a network for market access, training and collective action. In the platform’s first two&nbsp;years, a total of 165 women-led businesses reported&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cta.int/en/legacy/VALUE4HER" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">increased incomes</a>&nbsp;as a result of improved market access and enhanced technical business management skills,&nbsp;which becomes especially important in times of crisis.



And part of CGIAR’s new research portfolio is the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/11-excellence-in-agronomy-eia-solutions-for-agricultural-transformation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Excellence in Agronomy</a>&nbsp;initiative, which aims to unite 20 public and private partners to reach a million farmers with gender-responsive agronomic solutions. This is one of CGIAR’s 32 new initiatives that include a scaling component to ensure new and existing innovations get into the hands of farmers.



The unexpected events of the past two years have significantly altered the trajectory of Africa’s agricultural development. From accelerating the&nbsp;<a href="https://agra.org/news/role-of-digital-agricultural-tools-during-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">digitalisation</a>&nbsp;of marketplaces and on-farm training during the pandemic to forcing countries to seek wheat and fertiliser alternatives in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, necessity has triggered urgent innovation to adapt to evolving circumstances.



As the most important actors in African agriculture unite at the&nbsp;<a href="https://agrf.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">African Green Revolution Forum</a>&nbsp;(AGRF) in Kigali, we must now zone in on the tried and tested solutions that can protect the most vulnerable and develop the strategies to maximise them with utmost urgency.

Africa-planting

Africa must fast-track adoption of proven and sustainable solutions to survive food crisis

South Africa’s franchise sector has shown tremendous resilience, first withstanding the heaviest effects from economic lens of the COVID-19 pandemic, secondly, looking at how global economies, suffered from the knock-on effect of the Russian war in the Ukraine.



As the economy in South Africa continues to struggle, worsened by the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the riots in the province a year ago, much hard work remains to help turn the corner.



But if there is a sector which has shone the light in the toughest of times in the country, it is the franchise sector, given its strong contribution to the economy, particularly when it comes to creating jobs. A conservative estimate is that the franchise industry annually employs around 350 000 people.



Furthermore, according to the Franchise Association of South Africa, the country’s franchise industry contributes around 15% (R721&nbsp;billion) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a figure made up of&nbsp;the total market value of all finished goods and services produced in&nbsp;the country during a specific period.



Previously, the Small Business Institute, noted that as many as 70% of small businesses in South Africa failed in the first five years. Given the contribution of the franchise sector, there is a strong argument for entrepreneurs to go this route as one would be operating in an established business, backed by expert financial advice.



In a country recovering from the pandemic, after the effects of several economic challenges, especially the disruptive state of load-shedding, certainty and the backing of an established franchisor would help the national goals of creating jobs and growing the economy.



This is imperative if we consider that according to StatSA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey – Q1 2021, the official unemployment rate was 32,6% in the first quarter. Of greater concern is that the survey shows the official unemployment rate among youth (15 – 34 years) was 46,3 % in quarter 1 2021 and the rate was 9,3% among university graduates. Fred Makgato, head of the industry body, the Franchise Association of South Africa (FASA), warned that youth unemployment is a serious threat to the country’s economy.



But FASA has taken it further instead of being alarmist with a commendable strategic decision to transform the industry, working stakeholders to create franchise opportunities in and around townships of South Africa. The introduction of the franchise business model, along with franchise manager occupational training, in and around townships, is aimed at empowering and inspiring youth to take up franchise opportunities.



Such initiatives must be supported, as they serve dual purpose of helping to grow the economy and create jobs. Above all, it promises that after a tough few years the franchise sector will once more show its adaptability taking the country positively into new terrain.



As a bank, we have been proud to play a key role in helping to drive transformation, especially in the fuel sector, as set by the country’s transformation targets for the industry. Government has called on the fuel industry to meet significant transformation objectives within the next five years – not only to ensure basic compliance with the Fuel Liquid Charter, but also to ensure a sustainable industry.



Like most other countries, the fuel industry in South Africa is of strategic importance to ensure energy security and economic growth. According to the South African Petroleum Industry Association, the fuel subsector contributes about 8% to the country’s gross domestic product, which is approximately R300 billion in production output. There are about 5 000 petrol stations across all brands, creating over 700 000 direct and indirect job opportunities that make up 5% of total formal employment in South Africa.



Although the liquid-fuel industry is highly regulated with government dictating the petrol price, black entrepreneurs still face challenges such as access to infrastructure, finance, and markets. It is important to shape transformation in a holistic manner and to encourage greater market integration, removing obstacles that thwart competition and entry into the industry orderly, but swiftly.



Businesses are faced with the realisation that transformation is more than just a compliance exercise. They must now also look at ways to add sustainable value to the lives of historically disadvantaged South Africans through empowerment initiatives.



Ultimately, to achieve greater economic equality, key players in the industry must promote greater responsibility towards economic, political, and social objectives, driven by progressive, principled thought and positions. Our partnerships with various oil companies, new entrants and black-owned, have helped advance and enable transformation in this industry. At Nedbank this is conducted through a dedicated, centralised&nbsp;service for franchisors with strategic relationship development underpinned by tailored funding options.



As a bank we have already engaged with players in the fuel sector, for example. to collaborate on which the funding structure is most viable and beneficial to new entrants. An example of this is the flagship fuel-franchising partnership with PetroCONNECT, which was co-founded by Mark Harper and Sbonelo Mbatha, two individuals who have demonstrated the willingness and ability to address challenges in relation to sustainability, ownership, and transformation within the energy sector.



Our role at Nedbank is to enable through expert financial advice, players in the franchise industry to transform, focussing on those who are serious about achieving transformation goals with the greater good of the sector, growing the economy and creating jobs.



It’s the only way to go!



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="581" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-820x581.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419263" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-820x581.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-300x213.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-127x90.jpg 127w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-768x544.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-1536x1088.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Karen-Keylock-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Karen Keylock, Nedbank, National Franchise Manager</figcaption></figure>

Transformation is key for fuel industry that must grow the economy and create jobs

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="740" height="416" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/oil.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-413529" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/oil.jpeg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/oil-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/oil-160x90.jpeg 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px" /></figure>



In the midst of a global oil-and-gas crisis, Africa must take charge of its own energy destiny, and use its rich resource assets for the benefit of its own people.



This is the call from former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo. His comments come as the world scrambles to find <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/europes-plans-to-replace-russian-gas-are-deemed-wildly-optimistic-and-could-hammer-its-economy.html">new sources</a> of oil and gas to meet its energy needs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



In this context, Obasanjo says African countries cannot be beholden to the unrealistic ideals of the Global North for an exclusively renewables-driven economy. He says this is particularly true when the developed world is itself accepting the need for hydrocarbons.



“Like the rest of the world, Africa must follow energy policies that promote socio-economic development and sustainable hydrocarbon use,” he says.



“Africa is the lowest producer of greenhouse-gas emissions and needs to lift nearly half-a-billion citizens out of poverty,” says Obasanjo. “Responsible management of our hydrocarbons and investment in our economies is necessary to ensure a just energy transition and sustainable growth for our people.”



The European Union has said it intends to cut <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-31-22/index.html">Russian-supplied oil</a> by up to 90% by the end of 2022, and the announcement has already caused global energy costs to soar.



Africa is one of the potential new sources of energy to replace this supply, with an estimated <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/africas-energy-challenge/">61 billion BOE (barrel oil equivalent)</a> being discovered in the region over the past 10 years.



Obasanjo’s call for Africa to assert its energy sovereignty comes ahead of the <a href="https://africa-oilweek.com/Home">Africa Oil Week</a> (AOW) conference in South Africa, where energy companies, investors and governments will meet to negotiate deals that will shape the continent’s future.



The African Petroleum Producers&#8217; Organization (<a href="https://apposecretariat.org/d41d8-home/">APPO</a>) has also called on member countries and other global institutions to use petroleum as a catalyst for energy security, sustainable development and economic diversification in Africa through collaboration and partnerships.



Both Obasanjo and APPO have called for accelerated dialogue on the sustainable development of hydrocarbons, and the role of Africa as a supplier of global energy needs.



“There has been much talk at forums such as the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/first-global-energy-crisis-how-to-fix-davos-2022/">World Economic Forum in Davos</a> about a just energy transition,” says Obasanjo. “However, we must not allow Africa to be dictated to. “The discussions at <a href="https://africa-oilweek.com/Home">AOW</a> will be pivotal in charting a new energy course for Africa. We will decide what is best for us.”



Paul Sinclair, VP of Energy and Director of Government Relations&nbsp;for AOW, says Africa is committed to a just and equitable transition to renewables.



“Critics make the mistake of thinking that Africa has abandoned renewable energy strategies. That is not the case,” says Sinclair. “The energy transition is exactly that, a transition that is part of Africa’s goal to reach net zero. However, oil and gas are required for the foreseeable future.”



Sinclair says Obasanjo’s comments must be seen against the socio-economic challenges many African economies face.



Obasanjo has been a major leader of Africa’s post-colonial period, having overseen Nigeria’s transition to representative democracy. Since his move out of the government sphere, he has been a senior statesman, active on defining geopolitical issues – including energy.



Obasanjo also helped to <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-law-will-make-nigerias-petroleum-industry-attractive-to-investors-166860">shape</a> the modern Nigerian oil industry, inaugurating policy reforms which have seen the country become an energy superpower on the African continent.



&#8220;Creating an African oil industry that benefits Africa’s people needs strong policy and regulation,” says Obasanjo. “During my time in government, we launched oil-and-gas policy reforms that helped to build a modern oil and gas hub. There were many learnings that we can apply across the wider region. I look forward to discussing these opportunities for Africa.”



Africa continent remains one of the most under-explored places on earth for oil and gas deposits. Yet, the ongoing <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/mining/its-an-absolute-monster-another-major-oil-discovery-made-in-namibian-waters-20220224">discovery of new energy resources</a> suggest the continent holds great value beneath its surface.



According to the <a href="https://unctad.org/press-material/facts-and-figures-7">United Nations</a>, an estimated half-a-billion Africans live below the poverty line, while at the same time Africa is only responsible for <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/co2-emissions-by-country">3.8%</a> of global CO2 emissions. Many African countries argue they must be allowed to tap into their natural resources through low-carbon management strategies while developing renewable energy sources at the same time. This will require countries to develop an energy mix suitable for growth and progress.

‘Africa will decide its energy future’ – Obasanjo

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="616" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1-820x616.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-419082" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1-820x616.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1-768x577.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/9608668646_bc3d79cacb_b-1.jpg 1023w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Photo: via Flickr</figcaption></figure>



Maize production in some of the sub-Saharan African countries that&nbsp;<a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zambia/southern-africa-regional-maize-supply-and-market-outlook-august-31-2021">dominated maize supplies</a>&nbsp;during the 2021/22 marketing year is expected to be lower this coming season. This will bring about some changes in the sub continent’s maize trade in the 2022/23 marketing year, in particular creating complications for Kenya. In the 2021/22 season, Kenya was the largest maize importer in the region.



But Kenya has a longstanding policy against genetically engineered maize. This limits the role of South Africa, the sub-continent’s biggest maize producer and exporter, in meeting Kenya’s needs.



The expected lower production comes in a season when demand for maize from countries in sub-Saharan Africa that rely heavily on imports is expected to remain strong. It’s estimated that Kenya, for example, will need to import&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">700,000 tonnes of maize for 2022/23</a>. Kenya’s maize production is expected to be marginally higher, but not enough to meet the country’s needs.



Kenya is typically one of the major maize importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The country’s expected 700,000 tonnes of maize imports&nbsp;<a href="https://www.igc.int/en/default.aspx">account for 21% of the region’s expected maize imports</a>&nbsp;of 3.4 million tonnes in 2021/22 season, according to data from the International Grains Council. Other typical maize importing countries include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia.



However, in the 2021/22 marketing year, several sub-Saharan African countries such as Zambia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe (an exceptional year from the usual importing position) and South Africa&nbsp;<a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zambia/southern-africa-regional-maize-supply-and-market-outlook-august-31-2021">had ample maize harvest</a>. This made it easy for them to meet Kenya’s import needs. Tanzania and Zambia were the leading maize suppliers to Kenya.



Tanzania, the biggest exporter in the region in the 2020/2021 season and Kenya’s traditional major maize supplier, is unlikely to play that role this season because its maize production is forecast&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Dar%20Es%20Salaam_Tanzania_TZ2022-0001.pdf">to fall by 16%</a>&nbsp;year-on-year to 5.9 million tonnes. This is due to drought at the start of the season, combined with armyworm infestations and reduced fertiliser usage in some regions because of prohibitively higher prices. The consequence of the fall in production and firmer domestic consumption means that the country could have less maize for export markets.



<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Dar%20Es%20Salaam_Tanzania_TZ2022-0001.pdf">Preliminary estimates</a>&nbsp;by the United States Department of Agriculture are that Tanzania’s maize exports could decline from 800,000 tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year to 100,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.



Such a drop would leave very little for Kenya’s maize needs, leaving Zambia and South Africa as major suppliers in the region.



Zambia’s expected maize production in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.africa.com/zambia-when-crop-dreams-are-crushed/">current season is still tentative</a>, and it is unclear how much maize the country could have for exports. Zimbabwe, which had a&nbsp;<a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-had-a-bumper-harvest-what-went-right-and-what-needs-work-167307#:%7E:text=Zimbabwe%20has%20reported%20a%20bumper,stands%20at%202.7%20million%20tonnes.">large harvest in 2020/21 season</a>, is also in an uncertain position about its 2021/22 maize harvest and ability to export. The&nbsp;<a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Zimbabwe%20-%20Key%20Message%20Update_%20Wed%2C%202022-03-30.pdf">incoming evidence</a>&nbsp;suggest that some regions in the country have suffered crop failures.



South Africa could help and has the maize production capacity to do so. Given&nbsp;<a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-_30-March-2022.pdf">current output projections of 14.7 million tonnes</a>, South Africa could have 3.2 million tons of maize for exports in the 2022/23 season – about 78% being yellow maize, and 22% white maize. But it plays a limited role in the Kenyan maize market.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-barriers">The barriers</h2>



South Africa’s limited participation in the Kenyan maize market is arguably affected by regulations rather than just price and consumer preferences. Kenya continues to&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">maintain an import ban on genetically engineered products.</a>. This limits imports from South Africa&nbsp;<a href="https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2021/06/south-africa-has-reaped-major-benefits-from-gm-maize-study-finds/">where over 80% of maize production is genetically engineered</a>.



There are&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">indications</a>&nbsp;that Kenya is changing its longstanding policy. Regulatory agencies have recently completed all trials for the approval of biotechnology maize. But any decision would still have to be approved by Kenya’s cabinet.



Even if Kenya were to adjust its policy, South Africa would not necessarily be the only maize supplier looking at expanding its market share in the country. The likes of the US and Brazil would also be at Kenya’s doorstep. The advantage of South Africa would be its substantial white maize production, which is the preferred staple grain of Kenyan consumers.



Outside the African continent, Mexico, the US and Argentina could be among the potential maize suppliers, as there are generally&nbsp;<a href="https://repository.cimmyt.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10883/755/66084.pdf?sequence=1">few white maize producing countries in the world</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-imbalances">Imbalances</h2>



The sub-Saharan Africa maize trade generally has some imbalances. South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia are the major maize producers and exporters in the region. For their part Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Mozambique are often the importers.



At the regional level, sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate maize imports amount to an average of 3.4 million tonnes a year, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.igc.int/en/default.aspx">data from the International Grains Council</a>. This is both white and yellow maize, with most being white maize for human consumption.



Although intra-regional trade accounts for most of the consumption needs of import-reliant countries in the region, this is also supplemented by imports from countries outside of the continent such as Argentina, Canada and Mexico.



Overall, these maize market dynamics are worth monitoring, specifically from South Africa’s perspective, as they signal that the sub-Saharan maize demand in the 2022/23 marketing year could be much larger than the previous season. This could be the case especially if <a href="https://www.africa.com/zambia-when-crop-dreams-are-crushed/">Zambia’s maize production</a> comes out lower than the 2021/22 season, which is likely if we use the <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-_30-March-2022.pdf">South African maize production conditions</a> as a barometer for the region. Such a potential increase in the region’s maize imports would have implication for prices.



*Wandile Sihlobo is a South African agricultural economist and author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Finding-Common-Ground-Equity-Agriculture-ebook/dp/B084G1XS88">Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture</a>. Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/WandileSihlobo">@WandileSihlobo</a>

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