By Wole Soyinka To the affected governors all over the nation, there is one immediate step to take: demand the withdrawal of those soldiers. Convoke Town Hall meetings as a matter of urgency. 24-hr Curfews are not the solution. Take over the security of your people with whatever resources you can rummage. Substitute community self-policing based on Local Councils, to curb hooligan infiltration and extortionist and destructive opportunism.



 I arrived home from external commitments just over a week ago to an extraordinary homecoming gift. It took the form of a movement &#8212; sometimes angry, sometimes entrancing, poignant, sometimes strident, certainly robust in expectations but always moving, visionary and organized. That movement demanded an end to brutality from state security agencies, focusing on a notorious unit known as SARS. But, of course, SARS merely stood for the parasitic character of governance itself in all ramifications. That dimension – albeit not in those very terms of course – was acknowledge by the first formal response of government, delivered through the Vice-President. The movement involved members of the Nigerian Bar Association, Feminist Groups, Professionals, Technocrats, Students, Prelates, Industrial institutions, and Artistes – writers, cineastes, actors, musicians. It was markedly a youthful movement, its energy, creativity and resolve diffused throughout the nation through impressive strategies.



 It was,above all, orderly. In places, one felt vibrations that seemed to echo concert grounds like Woodstock, other times, the massed processions of France’s Yellow vests or waves of Lech Walesa’s Solidarity movement. Even closer, more recently and pertinent, the patient, stoical gatherings in Mali that lasted weeks and, in whose resolution, our own nation played a critical role. As I stated in my Message to Youth at the Freedom Park 10th anniversary events on Saturday, 17th, these youths brought fresh blood into tired veins. It was bliss indeed to be alive, to watch youths finally begin to take the future into their own hands.



 But – and haven’t we been here before? &#8212; suddenly, virtually overnight, it all changed. State security services – which specific branch, we have yet to identify – transported thugs to break up the protests. The videos exist, they have been widely disseminated – sleek motorcades with number plates covered – moved to recruit and disgorge thugs and breeds of hoodlums to break up the peaceful protests. Those mercenaries set fire to the protesters’ vehicles where parked, set upon the gathered youths with cudgels and machetes. 



They broke open at least one prison to let out the inmates. It has since been established that some of those vandals were actually recruited prisoners who, we can only presume, have been paid not only in cash but in kind. Casualties began in single, sporadic numbers, climaxing in the shooting dead last night of a yet undetermined number of protesters in a Lagos sector called Lekki.



 The mood, and climate of protest changed abruptly, and devastatingly with that diabolical intrusion. For the first time, anger and nihilism entered the lists, moving to dominate emotions. Organized militancy has been replaced by vengeful, omni-directional hatred. The capital, Abuja, has been torched in places, including the famous Apo market – that name itself evoking memories of an ancient massacre of youth – known as the APO Six &#8212; by SARS. Yesterday, October 20, I set out to drive to my hometown, Abeokuta, to be on my own turf as the violence was spiraling mindlessly in multiple directions. After negotiating my way through some eight or nine protesters’ road-blocks, I was compelled to turn back. It was all déjà vu – the uprisings in the former Western Region of Nigeria, the anti-Abacha movement etc. etc. etc. The attempt however enabled me to assess the



mood and transformation of the movement. I was better prepared. I rescheduled my trip for the following day ,– that is, this morning. In the meantime, however, that is, within the next eight to ten hours, the tension has become unimaginable! At that earlier mention Lagos sector, Lekki, where most of the affirmative action gatherings had taken place, soldiers opened fire on unarmed demonstrators, killing and wounding a yet undetermined number. One such extra-judicial killing has drenched the Nigerian flag in the blood of innocents – and not symbolically. The video has, in accustomed parlance, ‘gone viral’. I have spoken by phone to eye-witnesses. One, a noted public figure has shared his first-hand testimony on television. The government should cease to insult this nation with petulant denials.



 I resumed my trip to Abeokuta at 6 am, this morning as scheduled, again negotiating road-blocks -– this time somewhere between twelve and fifteen, all distinguished by an implacable state of rage. It was in stark contrast to the inclusivity of the protesting ‘family of common cause’ of earlier days. All inherent beauty of instant bonding and solidarity evaporated. At the block just before the Lagos Secretariat, the protesters proved the most recalcitrant. In the end, they exacted from me just the one offering to the rites of passage – I could sense it coming &#8212; I had to come down from the car and addressed them. I did. Little did they know what was churning in my mind: This is not real. This is Back to Abacha – in grotesque replay!



 It is absolutely essential to let this government know that the Army has now replaced SARS in the demonic album of the protesters. My enquiry so far indicates that the Lagos governor did not invite in the Army, did not complain of a ‘breakdown in law and order’. Nevertheless, the Centre has chosen to act in an authoritarian manner and has inflicted a near incurable wound 6 on the community psyche. Need I add that, on arrival in Abeokuta, my home town, I again had to negotiate a road block? That went smoothly enough. I expected it, and have no doubt that more are being erected as this is being written. It is pathetic and unimaginative to claim, as some have done, that the continued protest is hurting the nation’s economy etc. etc. COVID-19 has battered the Nigerian economy – such as it is for over eight months. Of course it is not easy to bring down COVID under a hail of bullets – human lives are easier target, and there are even trophies to flaunt as evidence of victory – such as the blood-soaked Nigerian flag that one of the victims was waving at the time of his murder. To the affected governors all over the nation, there is one immediate step to take: demand the withdrawal of those soldiers. Convoke Town Hall meetings as a matter of urgency. 24-hr Curfews are not the solution. Take over the security of your people with whatever resources you can rummage. Substitute community self-policing based on Local Councils, to curb hooligan infiltration and extortionist and destructive opportunism. We commiserate with the bereaved and urge state governments to compensate material losses, wherever. To commence any process of healing at all – dare one assume that this is the ultimate destination of desire? &#8212; the Army must apologize, not merely to the nation but to the global community – the facts are indisputable – you, the military, opened fire on unarmed civilians. There has to be structured restitution and assurance that such aberrations will not again be recorded. Then both governance and its security arms can commence a meaningful, lamentably overdue dialogue with society. Do not attempt to dictate &#8212; Dialogue!

wole soyinka

DÉJÀ VU – In tragic vein: Wole Soyinka on Nigeria’s unrest

Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 8 October 2020 – The African Development Bank hosted an online seminar 7 October as part of the fourth annual Global Infrastructure Forum, drawing together representatives of government, the private sector and multilateral development institutions to discuss strengthening infrastructure development in the COVID-19 pandemic era. The Bank’s workshop, titled Infrastructure Project Preparation: Ensuring Sustainability and Resilience Post COVID-19, took the form of a panel discussion on the critical roles that government, multilateral lenders and the private sector can play in building much-needed infrastructure in an economic climate made more challenging by the ongoing pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has sharpened Africa’s already urgent need for added infrastructure spending. The African Development Bank estimates Africa’s infrastructure financing needs at up to $170 billion a year by 2025, with an estimated financing gap of as much as $108 billion a year. The webinar panel comprised Lamine Lo, Director, Financing and PPPs in the Ministry of Economic Planning and Cooperation, Senegal; Solomon Quaynor, Bank Vice President, Private Sector, Infrastructure &amp; Industrialization; Jerome Haegeli, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director, Swiss Re, and Dr. Srinivas Sampath, Chief of the PPP Thematic Group, Asian Development Bank. Quaynor noted that African countries typically lack the fiscal space of wealthier ones to cushion the pandemic’s impacts. He also noted that the pandemic posed a challenge also for institutions like the African Development Bank. “We’re going to have to innovate, come up with better project preparation approaches, we’re going to have to design risk mitigation instruments because a lot of private sector would not be willing to take the risk of government obligations without a counter-guarantee.” The follow-up question and answer session led to a wide-ranging discussion that offered the panelists an opportunity to showcase some of the innovations that are being rolled out and share their projections. Topics included climate change, infrastructure recycling and leveraging pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to develop infrastructure. In response to a question about government’s role in creating an enabling environment, Lamine Lo laid out Senegal’s priorities post COVID-19, listing the health sector, agriculture, education and pharmaceutical sector. “Why these sectors? It is driven by lessons learned from COVID-19 but it is also driven by the need to build an economy which is sustainable.” Underscoring the longer-term nature of climate change impacts, Haegeli observed that “COVID-19 is a human tragedy, it’s the deepest recession of our lifetimes, but it has an expiry date, climate change and biodiversity don’t, that’s why I think there’s even more upside to act.” There was consensus among the panelists that MDIs, including the African Development Bank and Asian Development Bank, have a critical role to play in preparing projects for investment, tapping new sources of financing and supporting the recycling of assets. “There is enough project preparation support available in the multilateral community. There is ADB’s project preparation facility, EBRD’s facility, the World Bank, GIF, and clients should use them,” said ADB’s Sampath. In their closing remarks, panelists blended realism with optimism while reaffirming the need for change and collaboration. “We need to refuel the global economy’s tank. While we refuel, let’s exchange the engine, let’s put in new batteries. And that’s why we need sustainable infrastructure. That’s at the core of the global recovery,” Haegeli said.



“There are many building blocks we can put in place, both in terms of managing the crisis, as well as medium to long-term infrastructure, quality preparation of infrastructure projects, and making sure they are structured and attractive for the private sector to come in and invest because this is not something MDBs and the government alone can do,” said Sampath. “Never waste a crisis, advised VP Quaynor. “One of the potential positive impacts of this crisis is it’s pushing all of us to really focus priorities. And also make sure that we build quality infrastructure that maximizes the positive impacts to the economy and we also build it to withstand natural disasters, pandemics and epidemics going forward.” The Global Infrastructure Forum 2020, themed Building a resilient future post COVID-19, runs from 6-8 October across multiple time zones.

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COVID-19 crisis is pushing us to refocus priorities, says Bank Vice President Quaynor in Global Infrastructure Forum event on infrastructure project preparation

Despite being one of the fastest-growing economies on the continent and offering a vast number of investment opportunities, Ghana unfortunately has one big hurdle standing in its way: fiscal finances.



Ghana can boast about its successes, but troubling government finances have been the norm, with fiscal slippages regularly occurring in election years.



The current Covid-19 pandemic is set to compound the problems for the country as government needs to support the economy through a fiscal stimulus injection.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="600" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-374206" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862-696x522.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/shutterstock_270259862-600x450.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption>Ghana. Shutterstock </figcaption></figure>



The Ghanaian government’s fiscal account is set for a marked deterioration this year.



The minister of finance, Ken Ofori-Atta, in his revised budget in July said that at that point 19 out of 28 state-owned organisations (SOEs) were projecting losses for this year.



When Mr Ofori-Atta addressed Parliament in March this year, he said that the total fiscal impact of Covid-19 is estimated at GH¢9.5bn (2.5% of GDP).



The overall fiscal deficit, considering the expected shortfall in revenues and extra expenditure, is now projected to rise by GH¢25.3bn (6.6% of GDP) to GH¢44.1bn (11.4% of GDP) in 2020, from a previous projection of GH¢18.9bn (4.7% of GDP).



Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee press release noted that for the first seven months of the year, local authorities recorded an overall budget deficit of 7.4% of GDP, which is wider than the target of 7.2% of GDP.



While revenues have come in slightly over target, it was significantly higher expenditures compared to target that resulted in the wider fiscal deficit.



As a result of the ongoing fiscal battle, S&amp;P Global Ratings (S&amp;P) lowered Ghana’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to B- in mid-September, while the outlook is stable.



In April, the ratings agency warned that the Covid-19 pandemic is hurting medium-term fiscal consolidation plans.



S&amp;P says that the problems originally envisaged for the country have now materialised.



The slowdown in local economic activity has led to weaker tax revenue, while government spending rose sharply due to Covid-19-related support measures.



This has resulted in a much wider fiscal deficit than initially expected.



The ratings agency now forecasts the fiscal deficit to widen to 13.5% of GDP, which is in line with our own deficit forecast of 13.2% of GDP.



According to S&amp;P, the “scope for a sizeable fiscal adjustment post pandemic is likely to be limited”.



Furthermore, the medium-term targets published by local authorities point towards a much slower fiscal consolidation path.



The Fiscal Responsibility Act, which requires government to maintain the fiscal deficit below 5%, is also suspended for the time being.



According to the S&amp;P’s calculations, government debt will remain above 70% until 2023, while interest payments will likely cover half of fiscal revenue.



Although the fiscal shortfall has been fairly covered this year, it might be more difficult to access finance if the deficit remains at elevated levels next year.



The rating action by S&amp;P followed an announcement by Fitch Ratings in August that “the country’s slow fiscal consolidation may add to rating strains”.



The revised budget tabled by the minister of finance incorporated a much wider fiscal deficit than our initial forecast and, for that matter, the consensus forecast.



As a result, we adjusted our fiscal deficit forecast to 13.2% of GDP.



Our projection for fiscal expenditure has been brought in line with that of the revised budget; however, recent statistics point towards even higher overall expenditures for the year.



Despite revenues rising slightly over the first seven months compared to target, we still expect overall revenues to decline by year-end.



We are much more pessimistic on the government debt component, as we expect the debt-to-GDP ratio to remain above 80% over the medium term.



This is mostly a result of a more pessimistic view on economic growth and subsequently a lower nominal GDP base.



Pieter du Preez &#8211; Senior Economist

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Analysis – why Ghana is no longer the poster child for African economic reform

Washington, DC:&nbsp;&nbsp;A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Allison Holland, held discussions with the Somali authorities during a virtual mission from September 12—22, 2020 on the first review of Somalia’s economic reform program being supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.&nbsp;



At the conclusion of the mission, Ms. Holland issued the following statement:&nbsp;



“During the first half of 2020, Somalia has been hit by multiple shocks—flooding, desert locusts, and the global coronavirus pandemic. These have aggravated the humanitarian challenges, and negatively impacted the economy and the government’s ability to mobilize domestic revenues.



“The authorities have taken a number of measures to mitigate the impact of these shocks on the Somali people and the economy. These efforts have been underpinned by critical support from the international community and include temporary tax relief on some basic food commodities; the introduction of a cash transfer system for the most vulnerable, Baxnaano; and the launch of a credit facility, Gargaara, for micro-, small-and-medium-sized enterprises.&nbsp;



“Despite the crisis, the authorities have sustained their strong commitment to economic reforms and have made satisfactory progress in implementing key policies under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, supporting a staff-level agreement on the completion of the first review. All structural benchmarks and indicative targets for June were met, and all but one of the quantitative performance criteria (QPC). Cumulative domestic revenues through June for the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) reached US$ 99 million against program target of US$ 109 million. The authorities will request a waiver from the IMF Executive Board for the missed QPC based on the measures planned to ensure domestic revenues recover in 2021.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“Staff commended the authorities on their continued progress on fiscal reforms, including in the areas of tax and customs administration, and ongoing efforts to enhance intergovernmental fiscal relations and transparency. The mission emphasized the importance of a formulating a 2021 budget consistent with the ECF-program objectives and urged continued control on operating expenditures to create fiscal space for spending on priorities identified in the authorities’ Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9). The mission and the authorities agreed a new structural benchmark that will underpin further improvements in general government fiscal transparency and accountability.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“The mission welcomed the newly appointed senior management of the Central Bank of Somalia and the progress being made on reorganizing the institution. It also commended the authorities on further progress on AML/CFT issues, including the ongoing work on the National Risk Assessment and efforts to build capacity at the Financial Reporting Center. The mission urged the authorities to expedite the licensing of the mobile money operators (MMOs) to advance the implementation of the mobile money regulatory regime. A new structural benchmark was agreed that will ensure greater transparency in the licensing of MMOs and the issuance of the underlying telecommunications licenses.



“Staff congratulated the authorities on the approval by the Council of Ministers of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy and its endorsement of the UN, African Union, and Arab League conventions against corruption. It urged swift Parliamentary ratification of these conventions to signal the country’s commitment to improving governance and fight against corruption.&nbsp;



“The mission appreciated the active efforts the authorities are making to reach agreement with their external creditors on debt relief consistent with the HIPC framework and outlined in the HIPC Decision Point document for Somalia.



“During the visit, the team met with Finance Minister Abdirahman Dualeh Beileh; Minister of Constitutional Affairs Salah Ahmed Jama; Minister of Justice Hassan Hussein Haji;  Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Abdirashid Mohamed Ahmed; Minister of Post, Telecommunications and Technology Abdi Ashur Hassan; Central Bank Governor Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi; Acting Director of the National Communications Authority Abdullahi Abdiaziz Mohamed; and other senior officials. The IMF team would like to thank the Somali authorities for their cooperation and the open and productive discussions.”



Source: IMF press statement.

Moves to help Somalia – IMF statement.

The tourism economy has been heavily hit by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and measures introduced to contain its spread. Depending on the duration of the crisis, revised scenarios indicate that the potential shock could range between a 60-80% decline in the international tourism economy in Tourist Arrivals in South Africa increased to 62841 in June from 49481 in May of 2020, a positive outcome that portrayed a possibility to reset the tourism curve closer to pre COVID-19 outbreak. As has been an ongoing trend over the last four years, Travel and Tourism competitiveness continues to improve worldwide, and connectivity enabling—and enabled by—the industry remains on an upward path. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="730" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-1110x730.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-375388" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-1110x730.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-820x539.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-768x505.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-696x458.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-1068x703.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280-600x395.jpg 600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/tourism-1845203_1280.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /></figure>



What measures are needed to build resilience and address the challenges confronting the sector pre and post COVID-19 such as sustainability, climate change, digitalisation, health crises and other external shocks and ensure local businesses and communities reap the benefits of this growth? 



Tourism is a steadily growing and economically important sector globally and locally. It makes significant contributions to job creation, export revenue, and domestic value added, and helps improve the attractiveness and well-being of places, not only as destinations to visit, but also to live, work and invest.



 Tourism Trends in 2020 outlines digitalisation and sustainability to drive the industry post Covid-19.South African tourism recovery is dependent on funding for small medium enterprise and transformation. Travel and Tourism industry has completely changed and we need to move forward, we mustn’t force to hold back, we must move forward and adapt to the digital innovation and platforms that are part of the future of tourism globally and South African economy.



 The economic recovery in Tourism sector has an important role to play in placing the South African economy on a sustainable inclusive growth trajectory. Promoting growth and development of the tourism sector and Promoting the practice of responsible tourism for the benefit of South Africa and for the enjoyment of all its residents and foreign visitors, must be the responsibility of all South Africans from promoting our cultural heritage, improving our local tourism, improving our hospitality to local and global tourists with an understanding that all our visitors play a critical role in boosting our GDP, Job Creation and Investment.



 On average, The Travel and Tourism Sector directly contributes 4.4% of GDP, 6.9% of employment and 21.5% of service exports in OECD countries. It is of vital economic, social and cultural importance, and offers real prospects for sustainable and inclusive development; however, integrated and forward looking policies are needed to ensure this growth better delivers benefits for people, places and businesses. The Tourism Sector in South Africa, directly accounted for 2.8% of real gross domestic product (GDP) and The indirect contribution of the Tourism Sector to the economy’s GDP in 2018 was at 8.2%. Transformation is a hidden challenge in the South African tourism industry and pro broad based policies are needed to rebalance the sector to portray the South African diversity.



 The future of tourism will be impacted by large-scale social, economic, political, environmental and technological changes, bringing new and often unseen challenges, threats and opportunities. These “megatrends” are slow to form, but once they have taken root, exercise a profound and lasting influence on human activities, processes and perceptions, including for tourism. Four megatrends are likely to have significant impacts and relevance for tourism: evolving visitor demand; sustainable tourism growth; enabling technologies; and travel mobility.



 The tourism sector and related industries are parts of the global economy set to be affected by a variety of megatrends. For instance, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that passenger demand over the next 20 years will be impacted by the emerging middle class in developing countries, diverging demographic outlooks, increasing liberalisation of aviation markets, and climate change (IATA, 2016). Based on feedback from member and partner countries, industry and international organisations, this chapter will explore similar trends, in relation to: Evolving visitor demand, Sustainable tourism growth, Enabling technologies, Travel mobility.



 When considering its likely evolution over the coming decades, it is clear that tourism will be transformed by large-scale social, economic, political, environmental and technological changes. While slow to form, once such “megatrends” have taken root, they exercise a profound and lasting influence on human activities, processes and perceptions. Megatrends bring new and often unseen challenges,threats and opportunities, the impacts which may vary between the economy as a whole and individual sectors.



 It is critical for both governments and industry to explore and understand the multidimensional implications of these megatrends in order to inform policy and shape the future of tourism. An in-depth discussion of such trends will better enable policy makers to bring currently unforeseen and emerging issues onto the strategic policy agenda, develop potential scenarios and policy responses, and better assist public and private actors to capitalise on opportunities and challenges as they arise. Miyelani Mkhabela is a founder and CEO of Antswisa Transaction Advisory

Recovery in tourism ? Think digital

By Peter Burdin, former BBC Africa Bureau Chief.



The Green Economy has long been seen as a key player in Africa’s transformation.



This week the Tenth Annual Summit of the&nbsp;<a>African Green Revolution Forum &#8211; hosted in Kigali by Rwanda&nbsp;</a>-is discussing how best to move African agriculture forward.



The farming industry hosts 60% of the continent’s workforce and creates more than 40% of its GDP. Hundreds of thousands of livelihoods depend on it.



This virtual Forum has often been described as the world’s premier forum on African agriculture and this year is meeting at a time of global crisis in which the Covid-19 pandemic threatens jobs, yields and food security.



The virus has seen food processing plants slowing production or closing down completely, while the demand for exports such as flowers and fruits have&nbsp; been hit hard bringing economic hardship to many farmers.



The pandemic disguises the reality that agriculture in Africa has much to be proud of. In South Africa, for instance, maize production this year is expected to be more than 30% higher than in previous years –and digitalisation is transforming the sector.



The impact of the African Green Revolution Forum can be seen from last year’s event when some 2,400 delegates from 89 countries took part, and $3 billion worth of deals were concluded in the wings of the Forum.



Last year Isaac Sesi from Ghana shared a $100,000 prize with Tswana Bonolo Monthe of Botswana. Isaac employed affordable technologies to help reduce post harvest losses while Tswana developed a technique to turn underused, indigenous fruits into gourmet low sugar preserves.



The Rwandan organisers hope these successes will be repeated this year – and they say the key is digitalisation as farmers&nbsp; embrace data to boost production and sales and increase yields and profits.



Pilot studies across the continent have seen yields rise between 50% and 300% through better use of information, better seed selection, irrigation and mechanisation.



The Digital revolution provides the sector with enormous opportunities.&nbsp; There are innovations to help overcome challenges in land and soil mapping, water management, pest and disease management, particularly important as climate change starts to impact on Africa with locust invasions, floods and drought becoming more commonplace.



Today, a farmer in a remote area of the country can use his or her phone to see satellite images of their farm, and select the best seeds, the best type of fertilizer, the best soil health package for their crops, and the best markets to sell their produce.



Other innovations are less widespread but could catch on soon, like the use of drones and artificial intelligence to help with pest and disease monitoring.



It is fitting that just down the road from the Forum is the home of the Agriculture Growth Network (AGN), (<a href="http://www.agnetwork.rw/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.agnetwork.rw</a>&nbsp;) a social enterprise that helps some 800 small and medium scale farmers increase their productivity while creating jobs for the youth.



AGN was founded by Daniella Uwase and her fellow students from Kigali’s African Leadership University. The students train the local farmers in the latest techniques through e-learning platforms and provide microloans while connecting them to better markets for their products.



African Green Resources (<a href="http://www.afrigreenresources.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.afrigreenresources.com</a>&nbsp;) is another leading agribusiness company that trains farmers in good agriculture practices to achieve higher yields and build a sustainable agriculture economy.



African Green Resources also provides farmers with microfinance, particularly important during the pandemic when production and sales have been hit.&nbsp;



It’s chaired by Zuneid Yousuf who also works with the Economics Association of Zambia.&nbsp; Together they support a community entrepreneur development programme&nbsp; which places great confidence in the ability of continent’s farming revolution to achieve food security, create jobs and build economic growth.



One of the long-term aim of groups like the African Green Resources, AGN and the delegates at the African Green Revolution Forum is to help millions of young Africans find meaningful employment in agriculture.&nbsp; And all are convinced that embracing digitalisation will speed up that ambition.



The World Bank has pledged to invest US $50 billion in Transforming Africa’s Digital Economy, and it’s clear that if the delegates at the Forum have their way Africa’s farmers will be at the forefront of this investment.

Peter Burdin

COMMENT: Green revolutionaries to boost African growth

Sudan’s transitional government has signed a long-awaited peace agreement with the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) – a coalition of rebel groups from the states of Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Blue Nile – ending the 17-year conflict in the region.



Mediation efforts started in December 2019 in Juba, the capital of neighbouring South Sudan, between representatives of the transitional government and members of the different armed groups.



The new peace agreement was penned on Monday, August 31, in Juba in the presence of Sudan’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir.



Mr Hamdok remarked that “today is the beginning of the long road to peace”, and that the new peace agreement serves as “the promise of return, the promise of justice, the promise of development and the promise of safety”.



Five representatives of the rebel groups signed the agreement after nearly 10 months of negotiations. Two of the largest rebel groups, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Northern Sudan (SPLA-N) and the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), refused to participate in the peace discussions; however, both groups signalled that they do not oppose the agreement, which has been years in the making.



Deputy President Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo stated that “throughout the decades of [this] war, no one has won, and no one will win”.



The conflict in Darfur started in 2003, during former President Omar Al-Bashir’s reign, and roughly 300,000 people have been killed and millions displaced, according to the UN.



Mr Bashir is currently in jail and is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur.



While the transitional government signalled its willingness to hand Mr Bashir over to the ICC in February, no further actions have been taken, and he is currently facing trial domestically for the 1989 coup which saw him rise to power.



Since Mr Bashir’s overthrow in April 2019, the transitional government has made huge strides in unifying the country and moving it forward after years of conflict, corruption, and economic deterioration.



The peace agreement has been hailed as a big success in bringing peace to Sudan, receiving high acclaim from the African Union (AU), European Union (EU), the UN, and the US.



UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres “congratulates the people of the Sudan for this historic achievement and commends the parties to the negotiations for their political will and determination in working towards the common objective of peace”.



Mr Guterres stated that he fully supports the implementation of the peace agreement, which “marks the start of a new era for the people of the Sudan”.



The agreement includes various protocols which cover security, justice, refugee return, wealth distribution, power distribution, and land ownership.



It also grants the states of Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Blue Nile semi-autonomy from the federal government. In return, 40% of local revenues collected will be paid to the federal government.



According to the agreement, members of the armed movements will be integrated into the military over a period of 15 months, and 12,000 security and rebel forces will be tasked with ensuring security in the region.



While the exact details regarding the representation of the rebel groups in the transitional government have not been confirmed, in terms of the preliminary peace agreement, the rebel groups will be allocated 25% of the seats in government and three seats on the Sovereign Council, increasing the Council’s size to 14 members. In addition, the agreement allocated 25% of the seats in the Transitional Legislative Council (TLC).



If implemented, the Darfur rebel groups will occupy 75 seats of the 300-member legislature, with the civilian Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) retaining their 200-seat majority.



The agreement has been criticised for failing to provide a clear separation between the state and religion: The Islamism of Mr Bashir’s government and previous ones was a key driver not only of the Darfur conflict but of the longer and wider war between Khartoum and southern movements.



Moreover, the peace agreement has also been blamed for delaying the country’s transition towards democracy, as the negotiation process halted the establishment of the TLC, or Parliament, which was supposed to be appointed by December 2019.



More details regarding the peace agreement and changes to the government are expected in the coming weeks.



The long-awaited peace agreement signals an end to nearly 17 years of conflict in Darfur, marking another milestone in Sudan’s post-Bashir era, and moving the country closer towards democracy and civilian rule.



While the government still needs to release more details, the peace agreement is broadly accepted by the rebel groups, the transitional government, and the citizens of Sudan at large.



Mr Burhan has announced that the Sovereign Council and Cabinet are busy making the necessary amendments to the interim constitution to allow for the inclusion of the rebel groups into the government, and we expect big changes to government structures towards the end of the year.



Pieter Scribante – Economist &amp; political analyst

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Sudan – Peace agreement signals end of the conflict in Darfur

By Mthuli Ncube



In 2000, Zimbabwe embarked on an historic Land Reform Programme; the resettling of black families on land taken from their ancestors. It was an attempt to rectify horrific, historic, injustices.



Indeed, in the late 1990s, white Zimbabweans still accounted for less than 1% of the population, yet they owned 70% of the fertile arable land.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe.png" alt="" class="wp-image-379493" width="707" height="943" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe.png 477w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe-225x300.png 225w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 707px) 100vw, 707px" /><figcaption>Tractors from Belarus arrive in Zimbabwe as part of training for farmers. </figcaption></figure>



This was the context that the land reform process was based on.However, what was initially designed as a rectification of centuries of displacement and brutal colonialization became a policy riddled with much complexity. Upon becoming president, one of Emmerson Mnangagwa’s first acts was to constitute an Inter-Ministerial Compensation Committee in 2018. While the principle of indigenous land repossession was not to be reversed, the rule of law was to be respected, and compensation provided for improvements on the land.



On the 29th July 2020, Zimbabwe once again made history. A deal worth US$3.5 billion was signed between the government and white farmers. President Mnangagwa described it as a “new beginning of the land discourse in Zimbabwe.”



Andrew Pascoe, President of the Commercial Farmers Union, representing white farmers, called it “a huge milestone.”



In addition, on August 31, the government followed up by declaring that a number of foreign white farmers whose farms were seized, and are protected by international treaties can apply to get it back. 



Furthermore, if direct restitution proves to be impossible, the farmers will be offered land elsewhere.



So how did we arrive at this? And how is it to be implemented? Firstly, the entire agreement is based on two sections of the Zimbabwean constitution: Section 72(3) and Section 295 provide for the payment of compensation for improvements on “compulsorily acquired agricultural lands”. 



Whilst it has taken time, and indeed an entirely new dispensation, the Government and farmers’ representatives committed to engage in extensive negotiations on the basis of the law.



Finally, after much deliberation and debate, spirited conversations and emotional exchanges, a deal has been hammered out, and authorised by a referendum of the white farmers with a huge majority. The final agreement importantly included a global compensation figure which includes infrastructure and biological assets, and land clearing costs.



Many question where this money will come from. Zimbabwe is already weighed down by economic challenges.



Our economic plan, The Transitional Stabilization Plan, a broad swathe of deep and decisive economic reforms has already come up against cyclones, droughts and now a global pandemic. Funds therefore will be raised mostly in the capital markets through United States dollar denominated long term debt instruments, as well as other suitable non debt instruments and financing structures.



In order to see this through, a Joint Resource Mobilisation Committee has been set up by President Mnangagwa, which comprises both government officials and representatives of the farmers, and chaired by the Minister of Finance and Economic Development.This spirit of cooperation and compromise is at the heart of the new Zimbabwe.



Indeed, progress on land reform was not only a constitutional commitment, but a national necessity. Our international standing has been eroded over the last two decades, and this issue has often been at the core of those difficulties.



Since November 2017, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Trade has been charting a new course for re-engagement, international cooperation and good faith. Zimbabwe has been reaching out to friends; old and new, with a clear and genuine message: Zimbabwe is back on the world stage, and we desire to be a respected and responsible member of the international community.



As President Mnangagwa noted in his inauguration speech in 2017, “While we cannot change the past, there is a lot we can do in the present and future to give our nation a different,positive direction.”



For a country to change direction, difficult but necessary decisions must be made. Whilst we will never give up on the plight of the great mass of land-deprived indigenous black Zimbabweans, we must be loyal to the constitution and respect property rights. With no property rights, there is no business community and there are no investments.



And for an economy to grow and for jobs to be created, we must get the basics right. Likewise, there can be no law and order without the rule of law. And there can be no rule of law without a respected constitution.



A just solution therefore was vital. We faced many challenges along the way. Some were bridged between the parties alone. Others required international assessors and arbitration.



The key terms include a global compensation figure with a 50% down-payment within 12 months of signing the agreement, and the full balance to be paid over a period of 48 months.



This is no mean feat and the Joint Resource Mobilisation Committee are developing a joint road map for implementation. In the meantime, the Government will continue to provide payment of interim relief payments in the National Budget until sufficient funds have been raised for the down-payments. Work is underway with roadshows to potential financiers being lined up and strategies for resource mobilisation and stakeholder engagement being put together.



For economic reforms to succeed, the new Zimbabwe must be a place of coordination, collaboration and compromise whereby the rule of law is sacrosanct. This victory for compromise in the form of a complex agreement between the Zimbabwean government and the white farmers are a sign of this spirit and of better times ahead.



Prof. Mthuli Ncube is the Minister of Finance for the Republic for Zimbabwe

Finmin Ncube on who will fund Zim’s $3.5bn compensation to white farmers

COMMENT: The latest in the land story in Zimbabwe is a victory for compromise – so says the finance minister.

By Kudzai Mutisi The government of Zimbabwe issued a statement on 31 August 2020 addressing several issues pertaining to the land reform program. The statement presented the government’s position on the compensation of indigenous (black) Zimbabweans who lost their land during the land reform program and the compensation of former farm owners whose land was covered by Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreements (BIPPAs).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe.png" alt="" class="wp-image-379493" width="692" height="925" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe.png 477w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Belarus-tractors-for-Zimbabwe-225x300.png 225w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px" /><figcaption>Tractors from Belarus arrive in Zimbabwe as part of a training programme for farmers. </figcaption></figure>



ocals and foreigners seem confused by the government’s statement particularly the issue of returning land to certain former farm owners as compensation. Many have misconstrued this as the reversal of the land reform program by President Mnangagwa’s government. The compensation of former farm owners is covered in section 295 of the constitution of Zimbabwe. There are three categories of farm owners eligible for compensation in different forms. Section 295 (1) provides that indigenous Zimbabweans who lost their land must be compensated for the land and developments thereon. Section 295 (2) stipulates that those whose land was covered by BIPPAs and BITs are entitled to compensation for the land and developments thereon. Section 295 (3) compels the government to compensate those not covered in subsection 1 and 2 for improvements on the land and nothing else.



 In line with the constitution of Zimbabwe, President Mnangagwa’s government has put measures to provide compensation to all three categories of former farm owners. The recent statement provides options for the compensation of farmers under subsection 1 or 2 of section 295. In fact, these former farm owners were not included in the Global Compensation Deed signed recently. It is only these two categories of former farmer owners who have the option to get back their land or to be allocated alternative land elsewhere.



 The farmers that fall under section 295 (3) will be compensated only for improvements on their farms in accordance with the Global Compensation Deed recently signed by the government and former white farmers. These former white farmers owned more than 98 percent of the land expropriated by the government during the land reform program. They have no option of getting back that land. It is worth noting that the number of farms covered by BIPPAs and BITs are fewer than 37.



Some of the farmers in this category already received compensation for their land during the Mugabe era. According to the recent government statement, the compensation of these farmers will be governed by Statutory Instrument 62 of 2020. President Mnangagwa is not reversing the land reform program, he is simply implementing the country’s constitution. By committing to the full compensation of farmers covered by BIPPAs and BITs, the government of Zimbabwe is respecting and restoring property rights. Moreover, the new black farmers currently occupying the land covered by BIPPAs will not be left landless, they will be resettled elsewhere by the government. This is a positive move that should be applauded by locals and foreigners alike.



 The government’s statement also emphasised that illegal occupation of productive farms will not be tolerated anymore. In addition, the government will not downsize productive farms. This is a complete departure from the past where the government allowed the disruption of production on white owned farms.



 The criticism being levelled against President Mnangagwa’s government is driven by sheer ignorance of the country’s constitution and political propaganda. If anything, the recent moves by the government seek to correct the mistakes made during the land reform program and to bring sanity to the agricultural sector. There is no reversal of Zimbabwe’s land reform program. In fact, the government is effectively finalising the land reform program.

zimuuu

OPINION:There is no reversal of Zimbabwe’s land reform program

<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/trg508epzi34UWmJlOHzgQCfL-kAanijp2gqe2a9sA_T_VNBPbqlRJU4wJAXtOv1kMFT3DAtqY1saMI3qHLl44NzKV_ZRXvhfuzYFzhY9QVQEcqggQC08nuNUcHUBU0j1fgr3h828M2gEMXfTQ" alt=""/></figure>



By Mduduzi Mbada,



In contributing towards the realisation of the kind of society we want, as articulated in the Freedom Charter and our constitution, in February 2020, we presented the Growing Gauteng Together (GGT2030) plan of action that will endeavour to deliver the province of our dreams in terms of the economy and social security. The GGT2030 is about taking forward the implementation of the ten-pillar programme of transformation, modernisation and reindustrialisation of the Gauteng economy.&nbsp;



The GGT2030 plan of action also seeks to develop a sustainable capable state, where millions of people will be empowered to take charge of their destiny. It is about building a sustainable future for all and a society characterized by equality, social justice, prosperity, no crime and gender-based violence and improving the quality of life of its citizens. This is a society free of any form of discrimination and injustice.



The development of the GGT2030 Plan of Action was scientific.&nbsp; It was guided by the Indlulamithi Scenarios 2030, specifically, the Nayi Le Walk scenario, which identities social and economic drivers that can significantly improve the lives of citizens with pro-poor income distribution, inclusive growth, and meaningful social cohesion.



The modelling and development of GGT2030 policy interventions were also done using SA-Linked National-Provincial – which is linked macro-micro model for South Africa developed by the Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS), which considers the what-if question.&nbsp;



Before the Covid-19 pandemic, we had to analyse major trends such as the demographical shifts that were already taking place globally; Inequality and urbanization which were on the rise; the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) that was already reshaping the way human beings live and work and climate change that was cited as the new existential threat to all of humanity. The importance of understanding global trends is necessary because any successful nation or state should develop measures to anticipate and respond effectively to these trends.



This includes developing responses to the novel COVID-19 pandemic, which has resulted in a global paradigm shift and fundamentally changed life as we have come to know it. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the issues of poverty and inequality in both the developed and developing countries. It has, therefore, become imperative for countries to respond not only to the health challenges presented by the Covid-19 pandemic but to purposefully address issues of poverty, inequality and developmental imperatives in their respective regions in response to the pandemic.



The COVID-19 pandemic has brought trauma and shock to the global system and South Africa is not immune. Gauteng as the economic hub of the country, contributing almost 34% to GDP, has had to drastically adjust and lead a comprehensive response to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;



True to the nature of pandemics, like volcanos and earthquakes, we know they will happen, but we do not know when, where, and how they will occur. In response to the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, we have remodelled the GGT2030 plan of action as part of the reconstruction and recovery of our economy. The remodelled GGT2030 is a response to both the social and economic challenges brought on by COVID-19 pandemic. It was done by understanding three scenarios related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic specifically in SA. Firstly, under the Low Scenario, about 0.5% of South Africans (i.e. about 300,000) will be infected by COVID-19. Secondly, the Moderate and High Scenarios consider the possibility of COVID-19 infecting close to 1% and 2% of the population (about 600,000 and 1,200,000) respectively. The Low and Moderate Scenarios assume that the pandemic will be contained during the third quarter of 2020, and the economy will begin to recover during the fourth quarter of 2020.&nbsp;



The modelling exercise assisted in introducing new bold policy measures to curb any further social and economic distress in society. Specifically, this includes the introduction of an unemployment grant for all those who have become unemployed, it also includes making public works the employer of last resort for the unskilled-unemployed. This is because, in 2020, EPWP if expanded it will cater for 35% of the unskilled unemployed before expanding the service to all unskilled-unemployed by 2030, with the increase of the daily rate to R 160. We should also introduce a new caregiver grant of R 500, which is allocated for family members that take care of a child who receives either a child support grant or a care dependency grant and an immediate increase of the monthly child support grant to R 500.



With regards to Macro-Economic Policy Reform, there is a need to refocus and realign policies to support growth and employment as evidenced by the easing of monetary policy. This includes a rise in current government expenditure, an increase in investment to stimulate economic services and social infrastructure. This will also require an improvement in the ease of doing business in the province, and an increase in labour productivity of some sectors, the ten growth sectors and an increase in competitiveness in some sectors such as the financial services sector, real estate and business services.



Therefore, the re-modelled GGT2030 also brings the possibility of an expansion of the tourism sector, growth in the trade, catering and accommodation services sector, growth in exports for the agricultural sector, a rise in labour productivity and increased competitiveness of strategic sectors.&nbsp;



It also brings into sharp focus the need to improve industrial policy levers s such as industrial financing incentives as an instrument that can potentially drive industrialization and potentially reduce the trade deficit in the province. In the next five years, we will spend R60 billion &#8211; infrastructure spend to create 100 000 jobs and develop 50 black industrialists. Through Industrial Financing Incentives, total annual investment in the manufacturing sector will increase by&nbsp; R 10 billion during the next 11 years; Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and African integration programmes, will increase total exports by an additional 1.5% after 2020 and catalyse economic growth, employment opportunities and promote entrepreneurship; and the government’s Proudly SA and localisation policies will gradually reduce the import dependency ratios of some sectors by 20% over the next 11 years. Specifically, the Tshwane Automotive SEZ will be one of the biggest since 2010, with a supplier park and a factory producing 200,000 vehicles a year for the Ford Motor Company by 2022. This will be made possible with a scale of investment of over R20 billion by the private sector matched by R3.7 billion by government. The R1.7 billion spending on the build phase alone will be dedicated towards SMMEs, sourced from the Tshwane area and Gauteng at large.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The collaboration of government with the private sector, through the Public-Private Growth Initiative (PPGI), is another initiative that can increase investment both provincially and nationally. This will be achieved through the increased private sector increased investment in the South African economy by R 500 billion over the next 11 years, as their contribution to the broader socio-economic development of the country. With Public Investment Cooperation (PIC) investing R 20 billion in the manufacturing sector for the period between 2021 and 2025 (5 years) will contribute to growth and employment.&nbsp;



We are also working with the Development Bank of South Africa (DBSA) and the Presidency infrastructure division to unlock development in key nodes of the City Region. By funding the bulk infrastructure needed in the post-apartheid cities such as Lanseria, Vaal River City and the Western Corridor, wherein we are investing in an Agro-processing SEZ, as well as implementing accompanying investments in the revitalisation of 15 industrial parks, 12 Agro-Parks and five agro-processing facilities we envisaged significant growth and employment prospects.



Overall, the roadmap to inclusive growth in the province should be deliberate in its efforts of targeting the poor and improving service delivery services to improve the living conditions of poor families in the province. This should also lead to improvements in total employment, the decline in inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient, a decline in government expenditure relative to its debt ratio and improved profits for businesses.&nbsp;



Under the modelled six-pillar policy scenarios, it is projected that the poverty rate will decline by almost 50% from 28% to 15% and that there will be a significant improvement in the delivery of social services (education, health, land reform, housing, etc.) and economic infrastructure across the country (roads, bridges, transportation, etc.) This will particularly improve the living conditions of poor families.



When the GGT2030 is fully implemented, the size of the economy is expected to more than double over the next 11 years, from its current size of about R 1 trillion to a little above R 2 trillion, in 2010 prices. The unemployment rate will be reduced by almost two-thirds from the 36% (Mild COVIT-19 scenario) and 42% (Severe Scenario) in 2020 to 13% by 2030. Per Capita GDP is expected to increase by 70% in real terms (from about R 68, 000 currently to about R 115, 000 in 2030. The provincial poverty rate is expected to reduce by more than 40% over the next decade from 20% (Mild Scenario) and 21.3% (Severe Scenario) in 2020 to 11.5% in 2030. The high-income inequality in the province, measured by the Gini index, is expected to decline by 12 percentage points over the next 11 years. The decline will be from its current value of 70% to 58% by 2030. This will be achieved through a 4 billion per annum spend in buying goods and services from 2000 township enterprises, support 50 black industrialists, supporting 50 emerging black farmers and 20 black agro-processors and supporting of 500 cooperatives in the care economy and the creation of 250 000 sustainable and decent jobs.&nbsp;



The implementation GGT2030 with discipline, and the right kind of skills, including investing in knowledge as a strategic resource, will contribute to the South Africa of our dreams by 2030, it is also plan of action that will contribute towards a South Africa that truly belongs to all who live in it by 2055, the centenary of the Freedom Charter, where poverty and inequality are not the key defining features of social relations but by March towards a prosperous and united South Africa.







Mduduzi Mbada, Head of Policy, Gauteng Provincial Government, Office of the Premier

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OPINION: Growing Gauteng Together plan remodelled as part of reconstruction and recovery of the economy Post-COVID-19.

President Muhammad Buhari signed the Company and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020 into law on August 7, 2020. The law replaced the 1990 CAMA with provisions reflecting current realities and opportunities that can improve the business environment. The new company law contributes to improvement in formation, registration and governance of companies including health enterprises. It enables entrepreneurs to start single-member companies, with flexibilities in appointment of auditors and company secretaries. There is also provision for Limited Liability Partnerships and Limited Partnerships.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Muhammadu_Buhari_-_Chatham_House.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-376011" width="709" height="731"/></figure>



 As the world embraces accelerated digitalization, the law allows use of virtual platforms for knowledge management and corporate governance. The Act is a significant piece of legislation for the growth of the private sector which is crucial for job creation and poverty reduction. According to Nigeria’s Bureau of Statistics, nearly 22 million Nigerians are currently unemployed while about 83 million people are poor. The private sector is the engine of economic growth particularly through the employment opportunities created by small and growing businesses. 



Every legal and policy reform that makes the tough business climate better can open new doors to lift many people out of poverty with positive externalities for their health indices and wellbeing. Despite genuine concerns about some sections of the law which must be resolved quickly, strengthening regulatory institutions and systems is in the best interest of all Nigerians. The law aligns with ongoing reforms to create a continental market through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. A new World Bank report shows that the agreement can accelerate economic diversification and job creation in Africa, enabling countries that maximize its opportunities to lift millions out of poverty.



 Nigeria’s membership of the Africa Trade Insurance Agency and recent tax and business reforms are important building blocks of a viable environment that allows the country to seize opportunities of robust domestic and continental markets. A better business environment is key for local production of goods consumed on the continent. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic shows that Africa relies heavily on imported food items, medical supplies and drugs for its 1.2 billion people with serious implications for health and food security. While there are several socio-economic and sector-specific factors necessary to boost local production, timely laws that ease tax and regulatory provisions for innovative businesses create vital incentives.



 These reforms encourage policy makers, private sector players and development partners to work together on a longterm vision of resilience in the post-COVID world. Nigeria represents a strategic market where a convergence of talents, capital and technologies can enhance local production of medical goods and food for regional and continental consumption. The law positions the country better to attract new investments. The 2019/2020 Global Investment Competitiveness Report shows that investors prioritize political economy and regulatory systems in target countries. 



Although foreign direct investment may fall by 25 – 40% in Africa due to COVID-19, putting together the right building blocks can position the country for speedy recovery and new investments in the post-COVID era. Nigeria is one of the most improved countries with increasingly better business environment globally, according to the World Bank 2020 Doing Business Report. However, the country ranks 131 out of 190 countries globally and 17th in Sub-Saharan Africa on the Doing Business Index far behind Rwanda, Kenya and South Africa. Nonetheless, recent tax and business reforms send the right message to investors that the nation is making progress in removing bottlenecks that can impede business entry and growth. With access to capital, business and social enterprises can grow and thrive. 



Biodun Awosusi is Health Economist at Health Systems and Development Enterprise

Awosusi AE

OPINION: Reform in Nigeria can help health entrepreneurs

As several African countries continue to grapple with spikes in Covid-19 cases, it remains difficult to foresee the Africa that will emerge from the virus. Does the pandemic present an opportunity “to reset Africa”, as suggested by the Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu, or will the continent’s leaders be faced with the same long-term challenges that have simply been exacerbated by the pandemic?



For months, Africa had escaped relatively unscathed as the global centre of the virus shifted from Asia to Europe to North America and South America. Yet we now know that the number of African infections and deaths is still rising. According to the World Health Organization back in July, 22 of Africa’s 54 countries found that cases had more than doubled in little over a month.



While the primary concern for policymakers should be the health of their citizens, the economic impact of Covid-19 is plain to see. The African Development Bank Group has projected that Africa’s GDP is to contract in 2020 by 1.7 percent in the baseline scenario, which assumes a substantial impact of the virus but over a short duration. The collapse in oil prices has hit Africa’s second and third largest economies &#8211; Nigeria and Angola &#8211; hard, while the collapse of tourism and a drop in demand for agricultural exports to Europe have devastated economies from Kenya and Ethiopia to Cote D’Ivoire, Mauritius and the Seychelles.



Across the globe, the pandemic has damaged international supply chains and many are in agreement that the future is, by necessity, regional. It is clear that economies are having to look inwards, considering how to best support local industry in order to navigate the impact of the ongoing pandemic. While the coronavirus may be a new phenomenon, supporting entrepreneurship and stimulating the diversification of African economies has been a long-term challenge.



As mentioned, the Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu has said “the pandemic presents an opportunity to reset Africa, create employment and eliminate poverty”, and that the continent must “embrace the new normal”, with disruption in every sector from the digital economy to logistics. He suggests that there is now a “unique opportunity for a united Africa as a strong regional bloc acting in a coordinated fashion”.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Peter-Burdin-1-rotated.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-379931" width="684" height="913" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Peter-Burdin-1-rotated.jpg 480w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Peter-Burdin-1-225x300.jpg 225w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 684px) 100vw, 684px" /><figcaption>Peter Burdin -&#8220;If a transformation is to take place, it will require investment and training across the board.&#8221;</figcaption></figure>



The fact that the launch of African Continental Free Trade Area has been delayed challenges Elumelu’s plea for strong regional coordination, however, we have seen some examples of a coordinated approach between African nations that does provide significant hope.



Cameroon has sent planes to the Democratic Republic of Congo to help that country get medical support its more remote areas, the African Development Bank has denoted $4 million to South Sudan to bolster its fragile health system, and the African Union has launched a medical supplies platform for all 54 African countries. This is designed to make medical supplies, test kits and protective equipment available across the continent.



Something extraordinary is needed, and there are growing calls for investment to encourage African SMEs to create local supply chains in communities to boost employment. SMEs currently account for 90% of all businesses in Africa. If a transformation is to take place, it will require investment and training across the board. SMEs need support, training and financing to deliver solutions for manufacturing, healthcare, energy, digital innovation, infrastructure, agriculture and other sectors.



It is programmes such as the Citizens Entrepreneur Development Programme launched by the Economics Association of Zambia which exemplify the type of initiative that will be needed across Africa in the post-Covid world. In partnership with investors, including the Zambian business African Green Resources chaired by Zuneid Yousuf, and local NGOs, the independent programme has mobilised $1 million to support small businesses through the provision of funds, skills, and access to markets. The scheme hopes to bring economic opportunities to all parts of Zambia.



It is obvious that much more is needed across the continent to stimulate growth, and while it remains extremely difficult to say with any great confidence that economies will be “reset” following the pandemic, it is clear that that when we do reach the other side it cannot simply be business as usual. Long-term challenges remain, and it is true that they have been compounded by the events of 2020, but I remain an optimist.



 Peter Burdin, is the BBC&#8217;s former Africa Bureau Chief

OPINION:  Post Covid-19: Is this an opportunity to “reset” African economies?

By Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Acting Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management at the African Development Bank Group.



After demonstrating its resilience during the Ebola outbreak and the global financial crisis, Africa is once again facing a severe test of its strength and agility because of the coronavirus pandemic.



 The good news is that the continent has entered this crisis in reasonably good shape following decades of progression in health, education and economic outcomes. As of early 2020, macroeconomic fundamentals in Africa were improving, with investments, rather than consumption, accounting for more than half of the region’s growth. Inflation was falling and the continent was making impressive strides towards accomplishing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Africa must build on the momentum and strive to prevent the coronavirus pandemic from reversing the gains of the past 20 years.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="740" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1110x740.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-379845" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-696x464.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1068x712.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-600x400.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>Charles Leyeka Lufumpa</figcaption></figure>



 Admittedly, that’s easier said than done: despite their best efforts, many countries still struggle with fragile health systems, high debt levels, weak external balances, as well as high rates of poverty and unemployment. The African Development Bank now projects that Africa will fall into a recession in 2020 with economic growth contracting by at least 1.7 per cent. In a worst-case scenario, this figure could turn out as high as 3.4 per cent. Cumulative losses in gross domestic product (GDP) across the continent could range between $173.1 billion and $236.7 billion in 2020 and 2021. The coronavirus pandemic threatens to increase the debt burden of African countries from 60 per cent to 70 per cent of gross domestic product, heightening the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis. The additional financing required to cushion the consequences of the crisis could be in excess of $150 billion.



 In a part of the world where 85 per cent of the population earn their living in the informal sector,unemployment as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic could push an additional 28 to 49 million people into extreme poverty. Moreover, if we fail to take adequate action, the impact of the crisis on food insecurity and malnutrition may be even worse than anticipated. 



 To counter the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, Africa needs robust policy responses from every country on the continent, paired with strong support from Africa’s development partners. In the short term, African countries should prioritise healthcare spending for the provision of essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and materials, acceleration of local production of medical supplies including PPE and vaccine and drug discovery. Targeted cash transfers and subsidies for vulnerable households as well as subsidies and tax relief for businesses should be high on the agenda. Central banks must inject liquidity into the economy, turning to unconventional policy tools such as quantitative easing if necessary. In the longer term, countries should seize the imperative of building resilience to future crises. As good times return and economies get back on track, it should become a priority to build domestic and external buffers against any potential exogenous shocks. More money should be earmarked for scientific, economic and social research. Countries should pursue global and continental partnerships to prepare for eventualities. Private sector growth and revamping education and labour markets for the future of work are also key.



 The role of development partners. At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, multilateral development institutions took immediate action to help Africa’s poorest countries navigate the crisis and help them on the road to recovery. The African Development Bank is playing its part through its USD 10 billion COVID-19 Rapid Response Facility (CRF). The CRF offers immediate relief to African countries to address the crisis by providing additional resources for public health interventions, social protection programs and liquidity and budget support to affected sectors of their economies.



 Civil society and think tanks have a useful role to play by helping to build trust, solidarity and uptake of COVID-19 prevention and containment measures. They can also help to ensure that COVID-19 interventions are carried out equitably and that governments are held accountable for their policies and actions. The African Development Bank stands ready to work with other multilateral financial institutions and wealthier nations to alleviate the impact of the pandemic on African countries. 



 The continent’s youthful and innovative population, its growing middle class, its value addition to the abundant natural resources and its ever-improving governance systems give us plenty of reason to be confident that Africa will overcome the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.



 This year marks the first time the continent has entered a recession in more than half a century. Over the past two decades, Africa has boasted some of the highest growth rates in the world, setting the region up as the next investment frontier in a post–COVID-19 world. The level of cooperation in Africa has been encouraging. But beyond the crisis, we need to continue working together to help rebuild our economies and prepare them for the future. Africa will emerge from this episode stronger and more resilient than ever before.

Dr. Charles Lufumpa (002) (1)

OPINION: Post COVID-19-Rebuilding Africa and strengthening it against future economic shocks.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its health and economic impacts has forced a global rethink of the current multilateral framework and what it means for the future. For Africa, COVID-19 has served as a wake-up call in many ways. The mitigation measures that were put in place by most countries, globally, to contain the spread of the pandemic, and particularly border closures and lockdowns, resulted in reduced economic activity and supply chain disruptions across the whole world, Africa included. Reduced economic activity has meant demand contraction in Africa’s key markets, who were worse affected by the pandemic, thus depressing export revenues as commodity prices have continued to plummet.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="600" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782.jpg" alt="International travel for South Africans is now allowed, this is how it will work" class="wp-image-360865" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-80x60.jpg 80w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-265x198.jpg 265w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-696x522.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-560x420.jpg 560w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption>International travel for South Africans is now allowed, this is how it will work</figcaption></figure>



 Several African manufacturers have successfully reoriented operations to begin production of Protective Personal Equipment (PPE) and ventilators to meet local demand. However, for the most part, pandemic-related disruptions have exposed African economies’ overdependence on high commodity prices and exports of raw materials to fund basic government services. Together, disrupted international supply chains and domestic lockdowns created a perfect storm in which income, goods or services stopped circulating as economies came to a standstill. No money, no movement, and a realization that most African countries lack economic diversity and resilience.



 So, what is to be done? Simply put, there is a need to focus on fundamentals: producing more of what Africa consumes, and consuming more of what Africa produces. This does not mean cutting Africa off from the outside world. However, it does mean focusing first and foremost on the African market, and other markets secondarily. It means the need to think about Africa more as a single common market to facilitate scaling up. Producing and consuming locally will facilitate the development of supply chains that will offer small companies, and countries, opportunities to leverage their strengths and specializations and feed into large value chain networks that create more value through production, processing and distribution. And it means raising the standards within African supply chains to enable African firms to produce world class industrial products.



 To achieve this, there needs to be a concerted effort to shore up manufacturing in Africa. The demand for manufactured goods is already there, as evidenced by the figures on the import of manufactures. Key to enhancing manufacturing in Africa is improving intra-African trade through the effective operationalization of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which would spur industrialization. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that enhanced industrial production in Africa is entirely achievable, especially as countries have struggled to source inputs and products from overseas. African industries do have the potential to respond to demand and in fact, there is potential to leap-frog into advanced manufacturing and create the required capacity to produce quality world class goods. 



By extension, the pandemic has also exposed the vital importance of economic capacity not only for socioeconomic development and industrialization but to enhance resilience against crises and exogenous shocks that often occur without warning. Building on existing regional strategies for disaster risk reduction, there is also a need to factor in how pandemics present a multidimensional set of risks that require integrated responses to mitigate systemic risks. 



The capacity to locally manufacture the basics that are critical during emergencies—foodstuffs,clothing, shelter—and building the markets and supply chains needed to ensure a good supply of these, would contribute significantly to GDP, income and job creation. The question becomes how to build the markets and supply chains needed to ensure Africa can provide for itself, including during emergencies. For example, Africa has several agricultural commodities on which regional value chains can be constructed. These alone would contribute significantly to GDP, incomes and job creation while also paving a shift into the manufacture of light intermediate goods (e.g., wood products, textiles and leather) adds to the range of possibilities. As Africa builds more critical mass, the continent would increasingly move investment into distribution, data transmission and services to ensure these goods make it to market. Financing and insurance are needed across the spectrum, as are all the skills of the youth and specialists who can help manage the IT and logistics that leverage digital capabilities. This will create high paying, skilled jobs for Africa’s youth. In other words, there is a need to take a horizontal view of value creation and maximize opportunities to generate these in Africa, for African economies, African businesses, African workers and African consumers.



 So how can this be achieved? Fulfilling the African Development Bank’s High 5s priorities: Light Up and Power Africa; Feed Africa; Industrialise Africa; Integrate Africa; and, Improve the Qualityof Life for the People of Africa, would address these challenges on multiple fronts andinstrumentalize a tightly interconnected African market. The High 5s address the continent’s demonstrated need for power generation to electrify households and industries; enhanced transport links to connect African countries by land, sea and air; ICT for communication and digital management of logistics; financial markets to integrate for more and better financial flows for business enterprises to flourish and to meet household needs; and agribusinesses that rely on the latest seed and other technology to produce the crop yields needed to sustain Africa’s fast growing populations.



 By producing what it consumes and consuming what it produces as its countries and businesses progress up the value chain, Africa can build wealth, opportunity and resilience and ensure the successful realisation of Agenda 2063.



Khaled Sherif is the Vice-President, Regional Development, Integration and Business Delivery at the African Development Bank

VP Sherif Khaled (1)

OPINION: Regional Integration as a Tool for Wealth Creation in Africa

By Andrew Pascoe, President of the Commercial Farmers&#8217; Union in Zimbabwe.



President Robert Mugabe’s notorious land reforms in the early 2000s robbed thousands of Zimbabwean farmers of their land, and of their livelihoods. What was presented as an attempt to right the wrongs of colonialization, turned into a politicised, corrupt land grab. It has taken twenty years for the injustices and illegalities to have been recognised.



 On the 29th July 2020, Zimbabwe finally made the headlines for the right reasons. The government, led by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, and the white farmers, represented by the Commercial Farmers Union (CFU), signed a compensation deal worth $3.5 Billion, described by President Mnangagwa as a “new beginning of the land discourse in Zimbabwe”.



 The deal has set many a tongue wagging. It is thus crucial to lay out all the facts on the table. Most importantly perhaps is the democratic nature of this agreement. The CFU conducted a referendum of its members, 60% of whom today live outside Zimbabwe. Out of 2896 votes on the day, there were 2759 ‘Yes’ votes, and only 137 ‘No’ votes. Votes have continued to trickle in since the cut off, and as of the 13th of August, 95% of the 3,191 votes were cast in favour. The agreement itself is a result of long and tough negotiations, based on the Zimbabwean constitution which provides for the payment of compensation for improvements on “compulsorily acquired agricultural lands”.



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 A database was thus created, known as the ‘Valcon Database’ which has 4,730 farms registered, representing almost 90% of all farms affected by Mugabe’s Fast Track Land Reform Program. The database calculated the value of all registered farms in order to arrive at a fair figure of compensation.



 In this case, the valuation of permanent improvements was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the Zimbabwe Land Acquisition Act. As per the constitution, the land value was to be excluded, and in accordance with International Valuation Standards, the Depreciated Replacement Cost (DRC) method was used to establish the value of improvements was used.



 None of this was done alone. The replacement costs per unit were agreed with Government after consultations with reputable contractors, which took over a year to obtain and agree in full. The figure of $5.2 Billion was established as being the collective valuation of improvements



to the farms as a whole. Considering Zimbabwe’s economic difficulties, this figure was considered to be unaffordable, and after lengthy negotiation the government offered a figure of $3.5 Billion, which was put to farmers for their acceptance or rejection. In light of the economic climate, it was clear that the payment would not be in one lump sum.



 The key was to find a payment schedule that provided swift relief to farmers, many of whom have waited two decades for compensation, while not further increasing the country’s debt burden. The terms of the deal, a 50% down-payment within one year of signing, with the balance to be paid over the next four years, represent a fair compromise. In addition, the government has committed to paying the full sum within 12 months should the funds successfully be mobilised within that time.



 There are of course those that criticise the agreement. For some, the compensation figure and the payment schedule are not what they hoped for. For others, the very concept of an agreement based on improvements to the land, and not its value, is a non-starter.



 Yet we urge those around the world to listen to the voice of those directly affected by the issue, who almost unanimously voted in favour. We are not blind to the limitations, but we recognise that for the first time in two decades, there is a Zimbabwean government prepared to recognise our plight, to treat us with respect and dignity and to compensate us for our suffering. We have put this matter behind us, and call on others to do the same. We hope that the dialogue and willingness to compromise reflected in this agreement represents the beginning of a new era in relations between Zimbabweans of different races and backgrounds, and between Zimbabwe and the nations of the world.



 While the agreement is not perfect, as those who have lived this struggle for two decades, we resolved to move forward, and to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Belarus tractors for Zimbabwe

What do  Zimbabwe’s farmers think of the $3.5 bn deal?

The covid-19 pandemic is ravaging the world indiscriminately, but a combination of health and economic factors means the pandemic presents a particular set of challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although the continent is reporting far fewer cases of covid-19 than the rest of the world, the pandemic poses far-reaching economic ramifications, particularly for vulnerable populations such as women.



 A slowdown in economic growth has already been felt among small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs)in hard-hit sectors such as tourism, retail, and services and thus likely to create wide-spread job losses.



 SMEs are critical to Africa’s economic growth across the region and represent about 90 percent of Africa’s businesses and provide about 60 percent of jobs on the continent. Access to finance is one of the main challenges facing SMEs in normal times—with the majority of these firms lacking the finance needed to grow. 



Prior to covid-19, SMEs in Sub-Saharan Africa count among the world’s most financially constrained, with the International Finance Corporation estimating that 52 percent of SMEs in the region have an unmet financing need with a credit gap of US $331 billion. It is difficult to grasp the immediate effects of covid-19. SMEs already face challenges in accessing finance and will undoubtedly face unprecedented challenges due to covid-19. Women-led SMEs are the worst affected because they tend to be in the most exposed sectors and receive the fewest amount of support in terms of financing. According to a recent study by the International Trade Centre, 64 percent of women-led firms declared their business operations as strongly affected, compared with 52 percent of men-led companies. 



Policymakers and investors working to address the health and economic challenges posed by covid-19 must go beyond moratoriums and renegotiation of existing loan terms. To better serve women-led SMEs, this will require a concerted effort from multiple stakeholders to include banks, development finance institutions (DFIs), regulators, and government to apply a gender-lens when designing covid-19 related economic recovery efforts.



 First, there is a need for gender-disaggregated data to inform and shape policies and investments. The pandemic presents an unprecedented opportunity to expand gender data collection on women entrepreneurs. Second, there is a need to apply a gender-lens approach when designing Covid-19 responses to support SMEs. This includes designing specific digital solutions and financial instruments that better meets women’s needs. The financial exclusion of women is a global problem, with approximately 1 billion women that do not have formal financial services, due to persistent barriers in access to identification documents, mobile phones, digital skills, financial capability, as well as inappropriate products and more. 



The situation is reflective in Sub-Saharan Africa where according to the World Bank, only 37 percent of women have a bank account, compared with 48 percent of men, a gap that has only widened over the past several years. Therefore, it is critical for DFIs, investors and other financial intermediaries to apply a gender-lens in investment analysis and decision-making, not just as a “nice-to-have,” but core to any strategic action. Furthermore, the pandemic has underscored the need for robust digital infrastructure as a platform to support financial inclusion and women’s economic empowerment. Third, there is a need for technical assistance facilities to provide women-led SMEs with advisory services to help them make more informed decisions and adjust their business models, enabling them to survive the pandemic while setting themselves up for post-pandemic growth.



 The covid-19 pandemic is not only a health crisis but also an economic crisis that could cause Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth rate to drop down to -5.1 percent in 2020. Implementing a targeted gender-lens approach to increase support to women-led SMEs will be critical to bridging the financing gap for women estimated at US $42 billion and for Africa’s covid-19 economic recovery efforts.



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Iftin Fatah is a Senior Investment Officer at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The views expressed herein are her own.

Iftin Fatah pic

Opinion: Now is the time for the world to rally behind women in business

According to unconfirmed reports, suspected Islamist militants have once again attacked and occupied Mocímboa da Praia in the northern Cabo Delgado province. Reports suggest that the port town was first attacked overnight on August 5/6, with intense fighting continuing until August 11. 



Security forces are said to have been given air support by the South Africa-based private security company Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), which has been active in the region since May. 



DAG is currently based in the port city of Pemba, more than 300 km to the south. Although unconfirmed, both militants and security forces are believed to have suffered multiple casualties. Mocímboa da Praia has been targeted numerous times in 2020, including on March 23 when it was temporarily occupied. recently, the town was attacked and occupied overnight on June 27, the same day eight employees of Fenix Constructions Service, a subcontractor of Total, were killed when their vehicle was ambushed by gunmen near Palma, some 80 km north of Mocímboa da Praia. Both attacks on Mocímboa da Praia were claimed by the Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) militant group. ISCAP has claimed or been blamed for the most recent attacks in Cabo Delgado.



 However, it is only one of several groups known to be active in the region, with the group commonly known as Ansar al-Sunna or Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (also referred to by locals as Al-Shabaab) operating there since 2017. The groups are not thought to have direct links with their better-known namesakes, but rather identify with them ideologically. Indeed, most analysts agree that socio-economic issues, underdevelopment, and perceived marginalisation are major drivers of the Islamic insurgency in the region, along with militants’ links to organised crime. The government has struggled to contain the escalating insurgency, which has threatened major liquified natural gas projects in the province, deploying additional security forces and engaging private security companies to try and contain the growing violence.



 On May 14, Interior Minister Amade Miquidade announced that 50 militants were killed in a security operation launched in the Meluco, Mocímboa da Praia, Mueda, Muidimbe, Nangade, and Quissanga districts. However, security forces have also suffered major reversals, impacting morale and operational capacity. The insurgency has been considered at a multilateral level with the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) discussing it at a special summit in Harare on May 19.



 A communiqué released after the conclusion of the Extraordinary Organ Troika Summit plus Mozambique “urged Sadc member states to support the Government of Mozambique in fighting the terrorists and armed groups in some districts of Cabo Delgado”. However, there have been no concrete commitments by either the bloc or any individual member to provide military support.



 Senior figures in South Africa have made comments suggesting that the possibility was at least under discussion. South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, briefed Parliament in May, saying that government was in discussion with Mozambique about how it could help fight the insurgency, prompting the Islamic State to issue threats to “open a fighting front inside [South Africa’s] borders”. The chairperson of the country’s National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (Natjoints) has since been quoted as saying, “We can’t interfere in a country’s sovereign matters, but we make sure we are keeping our forces ready.”



 In a development that may be related to the situation in Cabo Delgado, Tanzania’s military has been conducting military exercises along that country’s shared border with the troubled province since August 10. Tanzania first announced that it would be deploying soldiers to the border in May, in response to the insecurity. Islamist militants have significantly stepped up their activities in Cabo Delgado in 2020 and have become increasingly emboldened with its usual modus operandi evolving from targeting small villages and rural dwellers to launching relatively sophisticated attacks on district capitals, like Mocímboa da Praia and Quissanga. 



This has seen them driving security forces from towns they were garrisoned in, allowing militants to achieve psychological victories and capture weaponry. The security situation in Cabo Delgado is not expected to improve significantly over the short to medium term as there is no purely military solution to the insurgency. Most analysts agree that a coordinated, regional response to the insurgency is required as porous borders and organised crime activities are some of the key drivers of the violence. Mozambique is said to be reluctant to agree to a regional force being deployed, partly due to its poor relationship with Tanzania and Botswana, which will soon take over from Zimbabwe as chair of the Sadc Troika. Media reports allege that President Filipe Nyusi had proposed a bilateral arrangement to his Zimbabwean counterpart, Emmerson Mnangagwa, which was rejected as the latter preferred a coordinated response. A coordinated response appears unlikely in the immediate future. Louw Nel, Political Analyst

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