By the Banking Association South Africa 



South African banks strongly support the decisive leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government in the effort to protect lives and slow the spread of Covid-19. Banks play a vital role in the economy and accept that as a designated essential service it is their duty to remain operational and accessible, and to support their customers and ensure their safety &#8211; alongside that of our staff &#8211; during these challenging times for all South Africans. For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> This was the focus of discussion when the Board of the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) met on 25 March to consider the industry’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and the lock-down announced by President Ramaphosa. At the request of BASA, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition published Government Gazette Notice 11058, which allowed banks to have a collective discussion on how to strengthen their response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Banks have been declared an essential service during the 21-day lockdown in terms of the regulations issued to give effect to the declaration of a State of National Disaster. BASA members have agreed to do all in their power, while operating within the relevant regulatory frameworks, to responsibly support their customers and preserve the safety and soundness of our financial system. • All essential banking services will remain open during the lockdown to ensure clients can continue to access financial services. All call centres, ATMs and point of sale (POS) devices will be operational. • Banks will waive Saswitch penalty fees. Customers can use any ATM and only pay the usual fees charged by their bank. Customers will be notified once this comes into operation. Teams are working on it as a priority. • Customers are encouraged to transact at ATMs and from their homes – by internet and with smartphone applications &#8211; wherever possible, and only visit branches when absolutely necessary. • Banks will keep open as many branches as necessary. Branches may have less staff than usual and customers are asked to be patient and engage in a manner that protects the health and safety of staff and other customers. Staff and customers are advised to practice social distancing in branches. • All bank staff performing non-essential services and those who can work from home have been allowed and enabled to do so. The number of staff who will have to work in offices, call centres, data centres and branches will be kept to the minimum and all World Health Organisation (WHO) protocols will be observed. The banking industry reaffirms its commitment to assist its customers in these difficult times and is working with regulators and government to maintain the strength and stability of the financial sector. We welcome the announcement by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) of monetary policy interventions which will assist customers, while maintaining the soundness of the financial sector. Banks will work within current regulations to assist customers. BASA will have ongoing discussions with the National Treasury and the SARB, among others, to evaluate the possible further relaxation of regulations, if necessary. We strongly encourage all customers to continue to meet their banking and financial services obligations wherever possible. Customers in good standing &#8211; those that were up to date with commitments and have historically conducted their relationship with banks responsibly &#8211; who experience financial challenges as a result of Covid-19, should contact their banks who will, on a case-by-case basis, assist with appropriate solutions. These solutions could include suitable payment deferrals, the restructuring of debt, the provision of small and medium enterprise (SME) bridging finance and liaising with government and others who are providing additional support mechanisms. Particular attention will be given to those sectors likely to be most vulnerable in the current circumstances. Banks are investigating ways to assist customers on an industry and collaborative basis wherever possible. The Board of BASA would like to express its gratitude to the staff of all the banks who will continue serving the public during this very trying period. You are part of the national effort our President has called for to defeat this virus.

SA’s banks reveal plans for lockdown

By John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK



My final social engagement a couple of weeks ago was a trip to the theatre to see Samuel Beckett’s Endgame, a play in which the characters are trapped in a box-like room to contemplate a fate that (in true Beckett style) never materialises. Their confinement appears to be the result of some sort of apocalyptic event. For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> Little did I think that two weeks later I would be similarly confined to my home, with the streets outside eerily devoid of the usual tidal flows of humanity. These are extraordinary times, and trying to make sense of them in terms of financial market analysis is proving to be a challenge. I am taking a three-pronged approach to the situation.



The medical situation



The first thing we need to monitor is the medical situation. It has become clearer in the last week that, from a policy perspective, saving lives takes precedence over economic activity. Thus we are experiencing ever more draconian measures aimed at “social distancing”. I explained a few weeks ago that the pattern of epidemics tends to follow an “S-curve”. One sees a relatively slow initial build-up of cases, which then accelerates rapidly before flattening out again as counter-measures take effect. We can already see this pattern playing out if we follow the virus from its beginnings in China. Containment measures in China itself mean that the province of Wuhan has not reported any new cases in the last four days. Indeed the majority of new cases in China appear to have been brought back into the country be returning travelers. This, and similar shaped curves in places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, provides some comfort that containment is a viable strategy.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the rest of the world is several weeks behind China in terms of the spread of the virus and also in taking measures to contain it. Thus we have, in all probability, yet to experience the steepest part of the curve here in the UK; certainly so in the world’s most important economy, the United States. The same will be true of many other countries. This means that the worst is yet to come in terms of reported new cases and deaths. To exacerbate the situation, there remains much uncertainty about mortality rates, mainly because, owing to the lack of testing capacity, we have no idea how many people have actually had this virus. We are monitoring the daily data by country to watch for any signs of a deceleration in the infection rate. There will be some relief when that is seen in the core European countries, especially Italy. Developments in the US will also be key to restoring confidence. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired.</blockquote>



However, any return to what we might consider normal will not be immediate. We have already seen new clusters of infection in South Korea, for example. There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired. This will continue to weigh on general economic activity for some time.&nbsp; 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.investec.com/content/dam/united-kingdom/staff/john-wyn-evans-quote-desk.jpg" alt="John Wyn-Evans"/><figcaption>John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK</figcaption></figure>



&#8220;It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid.&#8221;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The financial system</h4>



The second area of focus is the financial system, which has definitely been creaking over the last couple of weeks. As we saw during the financial crisis, the world cannot cope without a functioning banking system, and central banks have thrown all their resources into ensuring that this does not seize up again. That’s not to say there have not been stressful moments. The overnight repurchase market has struggled to cope with the demand for dollar cash as both companies and banks hoard funds. Asset markets have seen days when it has been difficult, if not impossible, to sell anything at a remotely sensible price. On the more extreme days we have seen supposedly “safe” assets falling in value because they were the only things that could be sold in meaningful size to raise funds. Some of this was down to forced deleveraging by funds that manage portfolios based on the level of volatility. With the VIX Index hitting an all-time high last week, they had no choice but to reduce positions across the board. There is some evidence that the worst of that particular phase of selling pressure has now peaked, at least, but redemptions and margin calls will continue to weigh. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Then there has been governments’ response to the crisis. We have seen all sorts of extraordinary measures announced with commendable speed, ranging from payment deferrals to cheap loan facilities and cash handouts.</blockquote>



It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid. What will be intriguing is to see the extent to which central banks and governments work together. Since the financial crisis, measures such as Quantitative Easing and zero interest rates, which were seen as temporary remedies, have become more permanent. It is possible that direct purchases of government debt by central banks will now become the norm. Once debt is “monetised” in such a fashion, it has major implications for how money itself is valued, which might well lead to very different types of portfolio construction in future.&nbsp; The key point to make, though, is that no measure will be deemed too extreme or too costly in the short term to keep the financial system functional and to ensure that the private sector is provided with some sort of safety net to compensate for the enforced lack of activity. I have deliberately not provided exact numbers because they are virtually meaningless and will also be subject to frequent revisions. Suffice to say that the words “whatever it takes” will be repeated often. There will be bumps in the road, as we saw last night is the US, where the Senate was unable to agree on a package of supportive measures. I can assure you that they will once they acknowledge just how bad the situation is, much as they did in 2008. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Economic growth and company earnings</h4>



The final pieces of the jigsaw are economic growth and company earnings, and here we are subject to the greatest uncertainty. Within the investment bank and independent forecaster communities there is something of a race to the bottom in terms of expectations, with every day bringing a new low. The speed of decline will be unprecedented. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2008 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the US economy shrank by an annualised 8%. Goldman Sachs suggests a figure of -24% for the second quarter this year, while one member of the Federal Reserve Bank has ventured -50%. These figures were inconceivable just a few weeks ago. And although there will inevitably be a sharp rebound in activity, the trajectory of the recovery is hard to predict. It certainly feels that hopes for a “V” shaped recovery are too optimistic. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery.</blockquote>



From a company perspective, it is clear that earnings could, in aggregate, by wiped out for a quarter or longer, although there will be a huge gap between the haves and the have nots, one which investors are already anticipating to judge by the relative performance of different stocks and sectors. Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery. There will be a time to consider more risky situations, but definitely not yet.&nbsp; We often remind investors that dividends are the least volatile component of investment returns. That will be the case again, but the overall level of dividend payments is going to be significantly curtailed this year and potentially next as well. We have already seen dividend suspensions from companies such as Marks &amp; Spencer and Intercontinental Hotels Group, both viewed as being in decent financial shape prior to current events. But we remain far from despair. According to data from Goldman Sachs, the UK stock market trades at the 11th percentile of its price-to-book value since 1965 (and so has been more highly valued on this metric 89% of the time over the last fifty-five years). Unless we believe that the ability to generate a reasonable return on capital has been permanently impaired – and we don’t – then investors will able to take advantage of some long-term opportunities once we have some greater clarity on the short-term pain.

What does the COVID-19 end game look like for investors?

– By Neels Barendrecht, Chairman of Agility Holdings
and Director of Agility Risk Solutions, Singapore



In February I returned from a
Singapore business trip. COVID-19 had not yet been declared a pandemic at this
time, however in light of the global events unfolding I took the decision to
self-isolate for the safety of my colleagues, friends, community and to help
protect our country, which at that time had no confirmed cases. 



While some may have thought I
was being overly cautious, as subsequent events in South Africa and the recent
announcement of a national disaster have shown – this was certainly the right
and responsible thing to do. 



As a business leader, I feel
it is my duty to set an example to the rest of the business by diligently
following this process, showing respect for our fellow colleagues and citizens.
The basics of risk management dictate that we have to be mindful of the
potential consequences that wider exposure to this virus could have, and take
proactive measures to prevent this as far as possible. 



One of the most difficult
aspects of my decision to self-isolate at home was that my family who live with
me also needed to enter into these self-quarantine measures. Fortunately, my
family have been most supportive and understand why these measures are
necessary for the greater good. We are also enjoying spending some quality time
together for a change. 



Our Medical Director of
Agility Health, Dr Jacques Snyman,
points out that in my circumstances – which will no doubt be applicable to
others – self-isolation in its true sense is often not practical unless one
lives alone. My family’s possible exposure to any risk of COVID-19 that I could
have after travelling means that our self-imposed family quarantine would aim to keep
any possible risk associated with the virus “in the family”, and not expose
anyone else to possible infection. 



I have been asked whether
life in isolation is a lonely experience, and to what extent it has impacted my
ability to work. Surrounded by my nearest and dearest, who are isolated with
me, I am fortunate not to feel “cut off” and thanks to technology, I am mostly
as effective in my professional capacity as ever ­– if not more so in some
respects because I’m spending less time travelling and commuting, and more time
‘online’.



This said, we have had to
cancel a number of family events because we are not to leave the house under
any circumstances. We are learning to think differently about things we have
taken for granted, and I find myself performing risk analysis in my daily life
for simple things that we would have hardly spared a second thought for before
the advent of this novel coronavirus. 



I now find myself considering
whether the benefit balances the risk of ordering fast food for delivery, which
by this point in our local outbreak could potentially carry traces of the
highly contagious virus. I suspect I will be avoiding buffet tables for some
time to come. 



There is a silver lining to
be found amid the alarm surrounding the coronavirus, and this is that we are
all taking on more responsible behaviours that we should have embraced long
before the threat of COVID-19. 



Just as the threat of Day
Zero in the Western Cape made us far more careful about conserving water and
respecting this limited resource, the COVID-19 pandemic is giving us a
much-needed wake up call when it comes to the importance of hygiene and putting
in place contingency measures.



Proper hygiene will not only
help us in the current situation, it will help to reduce other infectious
illnesses that are all too widespread and also pose significant health risks –
particularly to immunocompromised individuals in our country. 



The behaviours that we will
need to fully embrace to contain the threat of COVID-19, and the agility we as
a society will need to develop in response to the unfolding situation, are
responsible behaviours that will hopefully stay with us far beyond this crisis.




These are things we should have been doing all along, and if COVID-19 provides the stimulus we need to start practising better hygiene, let us do our best to take these lessons to heart.

Op-Ed: Living and working in self-isolation – Seeking the ‘Silver lining’ of the COVID-19 precautions

Following the address made by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa regarding COVID-19 and its impact on the nation, employees and employers are being asked to “self-quarantine” and implement “social distancing”. 



“The COVID-19 pandemic is a societal issue and not just an employer issue. We all share the responsibility and as such, one of the most responsible things employers can do is limit human interaction. Working remotely, especially from home, can be a difficult task for some in at first – especially if one is used to working within a structured office environment,” says ManpowerGroup South Africa’s managing director, Lyndy van den Barselaar. 



ManpowerGroup South Africa offers some specific advice on how to make a success of working remotely:



Create a Work Schedule



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Set a work schedule, create a routine and stick to it. “Yes, we are in a crisis and it’s totally natural to feel panicked and out-of-sorts over all that is going on. Nonetheless it’s key to stick to deliverables and goals,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Take lunch and coffee breaks to recharge your batteries between tasks. “Sometimes, one can fall into the trap of feeling like you have to over deliver because you are not in the office. Remember to take short breaks in between tasks to avoid burnout and ensure you are able to function optimally,” adds van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Make use of the online tools available such as Microsoft Teams, Zoom and Skype to schedule video meetings.</li></ul>



Have a Set Office Space



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Designate a specific space in your home for your office. “It is important to make the distinction between your living and working space, in order to avoid the trap of an ‘always-on’ lifestyle. Keep your personal relaxing spaces, like your bedroom and living room, separate from your workspace,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Choose a space where you will have minimal interruptions. Don’t underestimate the distractions from children, pets, TV and household chores.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Store all work-related files, reference materials and supplies in that space. Better yet, go paperless, by scanning hard copies of documents using tools such as Dropbox, Evernote, Google Drive or Microsoft One Drive.</li></ul>



Get Organised



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Every Monday morning, create a list of all the activities you have to accomplish for the upcoming week.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>At the end of each workday, create a to-do list of all the tasks you have to complete the next day, starting with the most to the least important.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Create a filing system to help you be your most productive self.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Organise your office space in a manner that facilitates your best work.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Have the items you use most frequently within reach.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Schedule regular check-in meetings with your manager and team to ensure you are staying on top of your actions.</li></ul>



Have the Right Equipment



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Invest in equipment that will enable you to do your job effectively and efficiently. “If you have video meetings with your manager each week, for example, make sure that your computer has the right camera, speed and memory for this,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Since you will be doing most of your work on the computer, and transferring work via the Internet, make sure that you have reliable Internet and a safe connection. “Make use of a VPN if possible, to ensure the safety of your documents and information,” van den Barselaar suggests.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Have a reliable back-up system. </li></ul>



Maintain a Healthy Lifestyle



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Even though you are encouraged not to attend the gym, take time to exercise regularly, be it at home or going for a walk outside. “This can seem like a task that is separate from your work life, but keeping yourself active and healthy can assist in managing stress and creating a positive work life balance,” says van den Barselaar</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Practice regular handwashing with soap and water and in the instance that you should need to leave your home, always have sanitiser within reach.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Implement social distancing but nothing should stop you from arranging a video call with friends or family after work to keep the loneliness at bay. </li></ul>



“We are entering uncharted territory, however being productive and delivering results should continue to be a priority,” concludes van den Barselaar.

Op-Ed: Tips to Successfully Work from Home amid the COVID-19 pandemic

By François Conradie &#8211; Senior Political Economist



President Peter Mutharika is using his office to thwart the
decision by the Constitutional Court to annul the results of the May 2019
election in which he was re-elected, and to direct government to hold a fresh
election. 



After Parliament approved some changes to electoral legislation in
line with the Court’s directive that presidential elections should henceforth
be won by absolute majority rather than relative majority, Mr Mutharika used
his veto power on Tuesday, March 17, and refused to ratify Parliament’s
changes. 



A spokesperson for the presidency said that, in the president’s
opinion, the proposed changes are unconstitutional. 



Mr Mutharika’s appeal against the original Constitutional Court
ruling is still pending; the ruling in the appeal case is expected in April.



This is the most dramatic move to block the implementation of the
Constitutional Court ruling, and it comes in conjunction with a few other moves
by the head of state that are of a nature to cause concern. 



Also on Tuesday, Mr Mutharika fired the chief commander of the
Malawi Defence Force, General Vincent Nundwe, and replaced him with former air
force commander Major General Andrew Lapken Namathanga. 



General Nundwe had been appointed in June and was widely popular
for his men’s handling of protests over last year’s election: on several
occasions, soldiers came between protesters and police officers whose
repression of marches was turning violent, so the army was praised for being on
the side of the people. 



General Nundwe will be “assigned to other duties in the public
service”, in the words of the statement from the presidency. 



The deputy commander of the defence force was also replaced and a
number of senior officers received promotions. 



An unnamed senior officer who spoke to AFP said that Mr
Mutharika’s intention with the move is to “put people who work for his interests
and from his home area” in positions to advance his personal and political
interests. 



Mr Mutharika has already given the army the order to use force
against protesters participating in a planned march to State House on
Wednesday, March 25.



On Friday, March 13, Mr Mutharika dissolved his Cabinet. 



The move came a few weeks after his Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) formed an alliance with the United Democratic Front (UDF), in order to
bolster the challenge from the two most important opposition parties, the
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the United Transformation Movement (UTM). 



He has made explicit his intention to make the Cabinet bigger:
since 2014, the year of his first election, he has stuck to a promise he made
in the campaign ahead of that poll to limit the size of Cabinet to 20
ministers. 



Sympathetic commentators say that the relatively more robust
health of the economy means he can now name a team of up to 30. His intention
is probably to give more portfolios to the UDF to bolster his alliance. 



On Tuesday, his spokesperson said he had decided on a new team and
would announce it “soon”. In the interim, all ministerial powers vest in the
president.



A rough few weeks lie ahead. It seems as though Mr Mutharika’s
plan is to delay the new election for as long as possible, but he does seem to
have accepted that it will go ahead, hence his focus on the new Cabinet and the
alliance with the UDF. 



As the new campaign starts, we will expect protests and for the
overhauled army to be as forceful as the police in dealing with them. The
voting itself will not be less suspect than that of last May, and if he wins,
his legitimacy will be in question. 



We had been hopeful about the outcome of the Constitutional Court ruling, but the president’s intransigence is reason to fear an increase in risk.

Op-Ed: Malawi – Intransigent Mutharika raises the temperature

By Louw Nel – Political Analyst



On March 11, as many as 70 MPs gathered at the Serena Hotel in
Nairobi to call on Deputy President William Ruto to resign. 



A joint statement was signed by members of both the National
Assembly and Senate, representing a number of parties: the governing Jubilee
Party and the main opposition, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), along with
alliance partners Wiper, Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford), Amani
National Congress (ANC), and Kenya African Democratic Union (Kadu). 



Their call for Mr Ruto to resign followed the announcement by
Senate Minority Leader James Orengo that he would be initiating impeachment
proceedings against Mr Ruto “in two weeks”.



According to the statement, Mr Ruto is accused of having “declared
war against established state institutions” and is said to be “guilty of public
misconduct and grave malpractices and has not lived up to the oath of office”. 



Listed in the statement are seven “concerns and controversies”,
including his alleged “history of fraud, acquisition of unexplained wealth and
unjust enrichment [and] arms deals and association with the underworld”.
Central to Mr Orengo’s impeachment drive is a scandal involving a fraudulent
deal to purchase KSh40bn in military equipment and the suspicious death of a
police officer linked to the matter. 



The investigation into a KSh11.5m ‘consultancy fee’ paid by arms
dealers has already resulted in the arrest of the former sports minister,
Rashid Echesa, and is increasingly being linked to Mr Ruto’s office. 



Among those calling for Mr Ruto’s resignation were members of
Jubilee’s so-called Kieleweke faction, aligned to President Uhuru Kenyatta. 



A growing rift between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto continues to be
fuelled by speculation over the incumbent reneging on his commitment to endorse
his ambitious deputy as Jubilee’s presidential candidate ahead of the 2022
elections. 



Mr Kenyatta’s rapprochement with ODM leader and former adversary
Raila Odinga has further antagonised Mr Ruto. 



Current battle lines are drawn over the Building Bridges
Initiative (BBI), which is championed by Messrs Kenyatta and Odinga and is
seemingly gaining momentum. 



Mr Ruto is openly hostile to the initiative. In particular, he is
suspicious about one of its key recommendations – the proposed appointment of a
prime minister – which Mr Odinga and others would like to put to a referendum
in 2020. 



Cleavages within Jubilee are becoming more pronounced with Mr
Ruto’s Tangatanga faction vowing a fightback.



The impeachment bid, should it be launched, will face significant
challenges. At least one third of all MPs (115) need to endorse the motion
before it can be tabled in the National Assembly, with a two-thirds majority
(234) required to carry the motion to the Senate. Organisers of yesterday’s
event say their statement was supported by 165 MPs. 



Moves to undermine Mr Ruto’s 2022 succession bid are gaining
momentum and he must now know that he faces an enormous challenge, both within
his party and Kenya more generally. 



Although it is too early to say if an impeachment drive against
him will be successful, a successful launching of proceedings will be a major
blow. 



Kenyan politics is never short of intrigue, but there is no doubt
that recent developments are significant and that Mr Ruto’s political career is
under siege.





ty65 \lsdl

Op-Ed: Kenya – Bid launched to remove Ruto

<h1 class="legacy">Scientists are still searching for the source of COVID-19: why it matters</h1>

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wanda-markotter-964818">Wanda Markotter</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>

The current COVID-19 outbreak is driven by a novel coronavirus (SARS CoV-2) that is spreading between people. The first human infections were reported at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province in China when a cluster of 41 pneumonia cases was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5">identified</a>. Deeper analysis showed that it was a novel coronavirus.

A third – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620301835?via%3Dihub">66% of the cases</a> – had direct exposure to the Huanan Seafood market. Fish, shellfish, wildlife, snakes, birds and several different types of meat and carcasses were sold at this market. The market was closed immediately, and it has not reopened since. 

Scientists around the world have been working around the clock to identify the pathogen behind the new illness. 

Information that gave the first clues was released in mid-January 2020 when the full viral genomic sequence of the new coronavirus from a patient sample was <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200131114748.htm">published</a>. It showed a new coronavirus – SARS-CoV2 – belonging to the same group as the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) which caused the <a href="https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/">2003 SARS outbreak</a>. 

But the new virus differed significantly, raising questions about its origin. The strongest speculation has been that the virus is somehow linked to the market given two thirds of the first batch of people infected had had ties with it. But even this hasn’t been proved yet. And subsequent investigations indicate that the first patient – who <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620301835?via%3Dihub">started experiencing symptoms as early as 1 December 2019</a> – had no reported link to the market, or the other patients. 

Several questions remain. Most importantly, there’s no clear data on what the source was. But tracking down the origin of the illness is important because it’s essential to know who or what infected “patient zero”. Understanding the specific circumstances, including human behaviour and activities, that led to this pandemic may provide clues about risk factors for future outbreaks. 

<h2>Shots in the dark</h2>

There has been a great deal of speculation about the source of the new coronavirus. Soon after the reports of the first cases being identified a range of theories were floated. These included reports that the virus was leaked from the laboratory at the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control. A number of renowned scientists issued <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30418-9">a statement</a> condemning “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. 

Similarly, the theory that the virus originated from snakes was subsequently <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/snakes-probably-not-source-spread-new-coronavirus-outbreak-china">debunked</a>. 

Misinformation like this was fuelled by early reports that linked suggested a link between the market, animals and the new coronavirus. But this has never been substantiated. 

Nevertheless, it’s a line of inquiry that scientists continue to pursue. Bats, in particular, have been studied closely because they are considered to be the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-018-0118-9">natural host</a> of coronaviruses. 

Previous research has shown that most pathogenic human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, have genetically similar viruses in bats. This diversity creates a pool of viruses that can spill over when and where the opportunity arises, most often into an intermediate animal source and then to humans. 

<hr>

 
 
 Read more:
 <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-its-important-to-study-coronaviruses-in-african-bats-131592">Why it&#8217;s important to study coronaviruses in African bats</a>
 
 

<hr>


For example, bio-surveillance <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-018-0118-9">studies</a> focused on finding the reservoir of SARS coronavirus showed that the closest related virus was in horse bats (Rhinolophus spp) in China. Civets were an intermediate host infecting humans. 

And fresh <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7">new data</a> was released recently showing a close relationship – over 96% similarity – between a virus from a horseshoe bat sample collected in Yunnan and SARS CoV-2. 

A second paper <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3">reported</a> similarity – 89% similarity – between SARS CoV-2 and a group of SARS-like coronaviruses previously found in bats in China. 

But these similarities are still not enough to identify the direct spillover virus causing the current outbreak. 

A key issue is that although the similarities appear high, the mutation rate of coronaviruses is complicated. Added to the complexity of the story is that there’s as a high probability that an intermediate host is part of the equation. This insight comes from the fact that most bat viruses are present in low amounts in bats and need to amplify in a different host before they can spillover into humans. 

For example, in the 2002/2003 SARS-CoV outbreak civets were identified as the intermediate host. In the most recent outbreak pangolins have been implicated. But there are huge gaps in this theory given that the coronavirus <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.951335v1">identified in pangolins</a> has only a 90% similarity with the human viruses. 

<h2>Designing interventions</h2>

Preventing the spillover of a virus from animals to humans can save billions of dollars and human lives. 

A pool of diverse viruses will continue to circulate in wildlife. Knowing the diversity, species implicated, and geographical distribution – together with understanding specific human activities that can increase the risk of spillover – is essential to prevent future outbreaks and sustain a healthy global economy. 

Finding the source of a virus can sometimes lead to very simple interventions. For example, scientists identified the flying fox bat in Bangladesh as the natural host of the Nipah virus which can cause acute respiratory illness and fatal encephalitis. Researchers found that the virus was carried in bat urine. People became infected when they consumed raw date palm sap from palm trees that had bat urine in it. Interventions included <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-017-2549-1">education campaigns</a> to discourage the drinking of fresh date palm sap. People were also encouraged to close collection containers to prevent the sap from being contaminated by bat urine . 

Interventions will differ for every virus and geographical location. But basic virological, epidemiological and anthropological data is desperately needed for known outbreaks and to lessen the burden of future potential outbreaks.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" alt="The Conversation" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133467/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wanda-markotter-964818">Wanda Markotter</a>, Professor/Director Centre for Viral Zoonoses/ DST-NRF South African Research Chair, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-are-still-searching-for-the-source-of-covid-19-why-it-matters-133467">original article</a>.

Scientists are still searching for the source of COVID-19: why it matters

MINI_YOUTUBE_PENRESA 09

Tanzania: The soul of a New Africa

By Dr Wanjiru Kamau-Rutenberg, Director, African Women in Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD).



The yawning global gender gap is at the heart of our inability to end hunger. Whether last in the family to eat, blocked from owning land, or entirely ignored by extension workers and policymakers, gender inequality &#8211; and specifically discrimination against women &#8211; is a key driver of global hunger.



The cost of
ending global hunger&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globalgiving.org/learn/how-much-would-it-cost-to-end-world-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">has been estimated</a>&nbsp;at anything from $7 billion to $265
billion per year, largely because experts cannot agree on the primary causes or
solutions.&nbsp;



As
academics, activists and policymakers continue to explore the role that climate
change, disease outbreaks, and unstable markets have in exacerbating global
hunger, still too few are connecting the dots between gender inequality and
hunger.



Hunger
itself knows no gender, affecting&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">820
million men, women and children</a>&nbsp;alike worldwide. But circumstances
leading to hunger and malnutrition often arise because gender inequality tends
to disadvantage women as producers and carers and, importantly, as
professionals in fields such as science, technology and innovation.



We cannot
continue neglecting the vital contribution of women in agriculture if we are to
have any hope of improving global food security. This means addressing the
under-appreciated and vital role of women – not just in producing and preparing
food for their families, but also in conducting and leading scientific research
needed to enhance the production and equitable distribution of food to all.



Women
account for&nbsp;<a href="https://farmingfirst.org/women_infographic/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 40 per cent</a>&nbsp;of the agricultural workforce in
developing countries, often working longer hours and taking on more
labour-intensive tasks, such as weeding and tending to livestock. For example,
weeding a&nbsp;<a href="https://croplife.org/news/an-end-to-weeding-by-hand/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">single hectare of sorghum</a>&nbsp;by hand can take around 324
hours of labour.



Yet while
women bear the burden of drudgery on farms, they do so without access to many
of the same resources as men, facing a yield gap of up to&nbsp;<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/one.org/pdfs/poverty_is_sexist_report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">30 per cent</a>&nbsp;as a result.



By
providing women with the inputs and services that meet their needs, total
agricultural output in developing countries could rise by up to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i2050e/i2050e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">four per cent</a>.



To
effectively tackle global hunger, all scientists must have the skills and
commitment to address the needs and priorities of women farmers across
agricultural value chains.



Named after
its inventor, Ethiopia’s&nbsp;<a href="https://ruforum.wordpress.com/2015/10/07/professor-fetien-abay-a-pioneering-plant-and-seed-scientist/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fetina</a>&nbsp;variety of barley is an example of what happens
when scientists collaborate with, and respond to the needs of women farmers.



Developed
by Prof. Fetien Abera in consultation with farmers across the Ethiopian
highlands, Fetina barley is easier to de-husk which reduces demands on women’s
labour, allowing them to increase their output and freeing up their time and
energy.



Prof.
Abera’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgQRDlglfG0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">own life story</a>&nbsp;is itself an example of why we must
also address the systemic and systematic inequalities that stop women in
agricultural research from bringing their best innovations to the fore. Since
becoming the first woman plant breeder and lecturer at Mekelle University, she
has overcome tremendous challenges in her rise to the rank of Deputy Vice
Chancellor.



Gender
biases in scientific research mean that not only are the needs of women
producers ignored, women scientists are&nbsp;<a href="https://awardfellowships.org/award-publications/a-decade-of-advancing-inclusive-agricultural-research-the-award-story/5c0a43297ad18doc509149097/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">less likely</a>&nbsp;than men to publish their work in
journals, and when they do publish papers, they are less likely to be the lead
investigator.



The result
is that women’s achievements in science, research and development often slip
through the equality gap. The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)
reports that only&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wipo.int/women-and-ip/en/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">30.5 per cent</a>&nbsp;of patent applications have one woman
inventor.



Across
sub-Saharan Africa, just&nbsp;<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/afgend/262293.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">one in
four</a>&nbsp;agricultural researchers are women, meaning that women are
underrepresented in the leadership roles where priorities are set, decisions
made and resources allocated for research on the continent.



A recent
study found it may take up to&nbsp;<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-says-the-gender-gap-in-science-could-take-generations-to-fix-95150" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">320 years</a>&nbsp;before an equal number of men and women are
working in senior science roles worldwide. We cannot afford to wait this long.



Since 2008,
African Women in Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD) has invested in
accelerating the careers of the continent’s female scientists such as Prof.
Abera.&nbsp;



In addition
to leadership training, we also unlock the wisdom of an older generation of
scientists through an intensive mentoring program, and support African women
scientists rise to the top of their scientific careers by helping them build
the skills needed to raise resources for their cutting edge research.



Our latest
work, the&nbsp;<a href="https://oneplanetfellowship.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">One
Planet Fellowship</a>,&nbsp;is an innovative
partnership between private philanthropy, the public and private sectors,
supporting the next generation of African and European scientists to embed
gender issues into their research on climate adaptation solutions for African
smallholder farmers.



The theme
of this year’s International Women’s Day is “Realising Women’s Rights”, but the
reality is that women’s rights are human rights.



We are
investing in building a more gender-responsive agricultural research system for
Africa because we cannot tackle hunger without first addressing gender
inequality.

gettyimages-130874533-170667a

Op-Ed: Ending global hunger requires tackling gender inequality

By: Dr Victor Oladokun



For weeks, investors and the business community have been rattled by massive disruptions to global supply chains, as factories shut down in China. Everyone from BMW and Mercedes to Apple are feeling the squeeze on account of the coronavirus.



But economies and businesses are not the
only ones dealing with disruption. 



Social conventions are adjusting in
unprecedented ways.



Yesterday, Italy shut down ALL schools and
contemplated banning kissing in an attempt to thwart the spread of the
#coronavirus pandemic.&nbsp; The kissing ban
may not be necessary. Italians are already voting with their feet and keeping
their cheeks at a very safe distance from friends, family members and others.



But Italy is not alone.



In France, where &#8220;La bise&#8221; is an age-old ritual, kissing friends has always been a rather complicated affair, especially for uninitiated foreigners. Rather than shaking hands, waving hello or hugging, you simply lean forward, touch cheeks and kiss the air while making a sound with your lips. 



Friends in France tell me that &#8216;La bise’
could soon go the way of the dodo if the virus known as #COVID19 remains
unrelenting.



&nbsp;Here
in #Abidjan in Côte d&#8217;Ivoire, as in many other parts of the world, social
conventions are rapidly changing. Unlike the French double blise, Ivorienes,
conduct a rapid triple kiss. But they too have become extremely economical with
their cheek and air kisses. 



At the African Development Bank, where we have rapidly put a coronavirus contingency plan in place, kisses and handshakes are quickly giving way to fist and elbow bumps, or to no contact at all. Many understandably prefer an adoring &#8220;keep your hands to yourself&#8221; stance.



Across town, it is not uncommon to see men and women now tap their feet rather than touch cheeks or shake hands. What first started out a few weeks ago as a  comedic viral video in Asia, has since mushroomed into a full-blown practice in some communities. 



I&#8217;ve already been offered the foot of
friendship’ several times, so I can testify.



Last night, I was having dinner with a colleague at India By Nature, a lovely restaurant off of Boulevard de Marseille in the Marcory district that is a favourite hangout for many in the expatriate community.



Three things struck me. 



One, very visible neon yellow alcoholic
hand sanitizers were on full display all around the restaurant. You couldn&#8217;t
miss them.



Second, everyone &#8230; waiters, chefs, and
owners kept their hands and cheeks to themselves. 



And third, it would seem that the
hand-clasped Hindi &#8216;Namaste&#8217; greeting could soon become a globally preferred
and much safer social norm, in a world battling with a pandemic that has
already spooked the media and business world &#8230; for good reason.



Social conventions have always been arcane arbitrary rules and norms that govern behaviours from kissing, hugging, shaking hands, to bowing. In the age of increasing pandemics, it would seem that old conventions are quickly giving way to the new and the not so new.



For now, stay safe and Namaste !



&#8211; Dr Victor Oladokun, is the Director of
Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank

Victor

The End of Social Conventions?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="349" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-1110x349.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-360311" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-1110x349.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-300x94.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-820x258.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-768x241.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-1536x483.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-696x219.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-1068x335.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1-1337x420.jpg 1337w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC-Africa-Website-Banner_Version1.jpg 1910w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /></figure>



With seven days of live performances, expert speakers, special cultural highlights and an unprecedented list of exhibitors this year, you will want to delve into everything IATF2020 has to offer. 



The biggest trade fair event in Africa, IATF brings together more professionals under one roof than any other event of its kind on the continent. This year, the theme is “Building Bridges for a Successful AfCFTA” focusing on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a market for goods and services across 55 countries, and paving the way for Africa to better achieve its economic and social goals.



Taking
place in Kigali, Rwanda, on 1 to 7 September, over one billion people will
showcase and exhibit their goods and services, while exploring business and
investment opportunities in Africa.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pWYuaA7LuAE" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>



With stakeholders
that include investors, SMEs, and the informal sector, IATF2020 has become the
ideal platform to address the challenges affecting intra-African trade and
provide practical and effective solutions to overcome these challenges.



The
inaugural IATF2018, which took place in Cairo, Egypt, was an enormous success,
garnering US$32 billion in trade and investment deals with more than 1 000
exhibitors and 2 500 conference delegates from over 45 countries.



This
year, IATF2020 will surpass the success of previous years by providing a
platform for businesses to access an integrated market of over 1.2 billion
people with a GDP of over US$2.5 trillion created under the African Continental
Free Trade Area.



IATF2020
does not only serve as a marketplace where buyers and sellers of goods meet,
but also as a business matchmaker, enabling exchanges from business to business
and business to government and political stakeholders.



Additionally,
the IATF2020 Conference will feature leading African and international speakers
who will discuss a variety of topics surrounding African trade and investment
opportunities. There will also be training workshops covering exporting,
standards and marketing.



This
year, visitors and exhibitors will also get to enjoy work from the greatest
creative minds on the continent during the Creative Africa Exchange. The
initiative showcases Africa’s creative economy through music, film, fashion,
and a creative Africa summit.



IATF2020
will host art and craft exhibitions with magnificent pieces that have never
been displayed together before. Visitors will be able to engage with the
artists and craftspeople, and find out how art is leading the way in the
cultural industries.



Traders
who are unable to make it to Rwanda for IATF2020 can still log onto the
IATF2020&nbsp;<a href="https://www.intrafricantradefair.com/en/virtual-trade-fair" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Virtual Trade Fair&nbsp;</a>and
showcase goods, services and investment opportunities on the interactive online
platform. The Virtual Trade Fair connects exhibitors and visitors from all
sectors, and provides a platform for delegates and non-attendees to connect in
real-time during the event and for the rest of the year after the Trade Fair
has concluded.&nbsp;



With
exhibitors from all over Africa and beyond, businesses across the public and
private sectors, and SMEs to multinational corporations, IATF2020 simply cannot
be matched anywhere else.



Make
valuable business connections and accelerate your reach into African markets at
IATF2020. 



To
register and get more information, visit the IATF website at <a href="https://www.intrafricantradefair.com/en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">intrafricantradefair.com/en</a>

3526_IATF_Februray_CNBC Africa Website Banner_Version1

IATF is the biggest trade fair event in Africa, here’s what it has to offer

By Pieter Scribante, Economist and Political Analyst, NKC African Economies



On Tuesday, February 11, Sudan’s transitional government and rebel groups from Darfur agreed, in principle, that the individuals who are wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) should appear before the tribunal. 



This announcement was made on Tuesday in Juba, the capital of
neighbouring South Sudan, where government authorities and the Darfur rebels
are engaging in peace talks. 



Former President Omar Al-Bashir, who was deposed in a military-led
coup in April 2019, is the most high-profile among the individuals wanted by
the ICC: He faces charges of war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity
committed in Darfur. 



However, as things currently stand, the government has no
intention of extraditing Mr Bashir to The Hague. Al-Hassan Al-Taishi, a member
of the Sovereign Council, stated that during the negotiation in Juba, the two
sides agreed on a mechanism that would include “the appearance of those who
face arrest warrants before the ICC”. 



However, this agreement does not specify when and how Mr Bashir,
and the other parties involved, will be tried. 



Thus far, Mr Bashir has only been prosecuted domestically on
charges of money laundering and corruption, with further charges pending. He
has survived international prosecution due to disagreements within the
Sovereign Council. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the Forces of Freedom and
Change (FFC) – the civilian coalition in the Sovereign Council – have expressed
their support for sending Mr Bashir to The Hague. 



However, President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the military bloc of
the Sovereign Council vehemently oppose this. The senior military officers held
powerful positions under Mr Bashir and likely fear the repercussions if he is
convicted and the implications of their complacency and cooperation. 



Currently, the government maintains the stance that Mr Bashir
should face the ICC, but it has no intention of sending him out of the country.




The government favours a compromise in which the trial will take
place in Sudan, through a hybrid ICC/domestic court. This has the benefit of
smoothening the peace talks in Juba, gaining international support for Sudan,
and allowing the government to keep a firm hand on the prosecution. 



However, there are several problems with this plan. Sudan is not a
signatory of the Rome Statute and does not recognise the ICC’s authority, thus
the Court does not have jurisdiction in the country. Additionally, a trial of
this nature is highly unorthodox. It is unlikely that the ICC would agree to a
hybrid system – which could potentially include Sudanese officials – as it
risks diminishing the reputation and verdict of the Court. 



While the agreement between the Sovereign Council and the rebels
in Darfur is extraordinary, it does not necessarily mean that Mr Bashir will
have his day in court for his crimes committed in Darfur. 



It is unclear how this will play out, and currently, this is just
an agreement in principle. Sudan is under no legal obligation to hand Mr Bashir
over to the ICC. Moreover, the ICC has not agreed to the hybrid system nor to a
domestic prosecution. 



However, this move has gained international attention and support
for Sudan. This coincides with UN Secretary General António Guterres’s call to
remove Sudan from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism List (SSTL) and “to
mobilise massive international support to enable Sudan to overcome its
challenges”. 



This latest development plays directly into the government’s strategy of bringing peace to the Darfur region and riding a wave of optimism, which could help the ongoing talks with the US and increase the chances of being removed from the SSTL.

Op-Ed: Sudan’s Bashir one step closer to the ICC

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="555" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1110x555.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-353226" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1110x555.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-300x150.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-820x410.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-768x384.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-696x348.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1068x534.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-840x420.jpg 840w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1920x960.jpg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet.jpg 2000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>E-shopping Online Business Promotion Shopaholic Concept</figcaption></figure>



By Derek Cikes



Consumer demands for a frictionless, personalised experience which caters for their lifestyle needs are set to drive online retail trends in 2020.&nbsp; The result is a focus on creating a customised experience that supports and enhances shopping in the virtual environment, facilitating the buying journey.



Derek Cikes, Commercial Director at payment fintech Payflex,
shares the top 8 online retail trends for the year ahead.



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Omnichannel retailing</li></ol>



As shoppers expand their touchpoints with a brand, the online and bricks-and-mortar channels will increasingly merge into a seamless omnichannel experience within the brand ecosystem.&nbsp; In order to facilitate this, merchants need to provide shoppers with an integrated shopping experience across all channels that allows shoppers to browse, shop and return items across in-store and online channels. 



 2. Pop-up Shops



2020 will see pop-up shops expanding beyond
brand awareness to provide shoppers with a curated shopping
experience.&nbsp;&nbsp; Leveraging the scarcity and exclusivity principles
associated with these temporary storefronts, shoppers will have access to novel
or limited brand items.&nbsp; Brands in turn will have the opportunity to
engage one-on-one with their customers while collecting shopper data.



This intimate connection will also enable
pop-up stores to take on a new position of facilitating brand experiences
rather than only focussing on the commercial aspect of a retail pop-up store.



“By providing a compelling pop-up experience, brands are able to differentiate themselves and establish a unique relationship with their target market,” says Cikes.



 3. User experience



User experience will be optimised by levering online
channels. Simplicity is the key, enabling the user to effortlessly navigate the
website and find and acquire the desired items.



This includes reducing the number of
steps to complete a payment transaction such as the seamless single click
checkout process which can dramatically increase sales conversions.&nbsp; 



“Our experience has shown that the Payflex 1-click checkout process can reduce cart abandonment by a whopping 40% &#8211;&nbsp; a huge benefit for ecommerce merchants,” says Cikes.



 4. Online security



Concerns about online security and privacy are one of the key challenges to growing online sales in South Africa.&nbsp; To provide comfort to shoppers, 2020 will see a focus on creating a secure online infrastructure and being transparent about the use of data, so that shoppers feel comfortable sharing their financial information.&nbsp; 



 5. The customer journey



The year ahead will see online stores
optimizing the customer journey through each touchpoint with the brand.&nbsp;
This will translate into establishing a strong online communications infrastructure,
supporting customers through a variety of online and social media platforms
throughout their purchasing journey.



This optimizes the shopper’s online experience, allowing the next steps to follow naturally &#8211; increasing conversions, customer retention and eventually brand advocacy.



 6. Payment choices



Consumers are increasingly wary of incurring
debt to purchase lifestyle goods, which has opened the door to alterative
non-credit pay later solutions, such as Payflex.&nbsp;&nbsp; 



“Customers want more control of their spending, encouraging the online retail industry to incorporate payment experiences which meet their needs, such as the free spending solution from Payflex which can boost sales by 20-30%,” says Cikes.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="330" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-353225" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1.jpg 624w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1-300x159.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px" /></figure>



 7. Online Ubiquity



The increase in social media retailing demands a pervasive online brand presence where shoppers can engage in a seamless experience with the brand and buy products directly from social media channels in a contained, accessible environment such as Instagram.&nbsp; 



 8. Machine Learning



The year ahead will leverage the
capabilities of artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide more
personalised shopping experiences.&nbsp; By using data and search history,
merchants can curate products and services specific to the shopper’s needs and
likes.&nbsp;&nbsp; This results in being able to customize each shopping
experience such as with sites like Amazon, where automatic suggestions are made
in addition to the purchase or music sites such as Spotify or Deeza which
leverage machine learning to provide a personal playlist based on a user’s data
and online search and listening history.



Final Comments



The
inter-relatedness of consumer demands and technological innovations creates one
of the central themes of online retail in 2020 – a symbiotic relationship
between shopper and technology.



“This will play out in new
avenues of innovation which meet consumer demands while leveraging technology
to create a meaningful online experience, moving shoppers further along the
customer journey to facilitate successful conversions,” concludes Cikes.

E-shopping Online Business Promotion Shopaholic Concept

Top 8 retail trends to watch in 2020

By George Ott, Economist, NKC African Economics 



On December 21, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara announced that the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (Waemu) and France had agreed to rename the CFA franc and implement a range of reforms to the long-standing regional currency.



Although talk of change had been in the air, the December announcement came as somewhat of a surprise, certainly to some others in the region.



The
formation of an independent monetary union and the adoption of a regional
currency has been a long-term goal for the broader 15-member Economic Community
of West African States (Ecowas), of which all the Waemu states are members.
Ecowas leaders met as recently as June 2019 and agreed to adopt a common
regional currency, to be called the ‘eco’, as early as 2020. 



However,
with manifold challenges facing this project, the Waemu states appear to feel
they were already in a position to get the reform ball rolling, ostensibly with
the goal of facilitating the eventual formation of an Ecowas regional monetary
union.



Aside
from the broader Ecowas debate, the reforms announced in December to be
implemented on the West African CFA franc include: renaming the CFA franc the
eco; scrapping the obligation requiring Waemu members to keep 50% of their
foreign reserves at the French central bank; and the withdrawal of all French
representatives from decision-making and management bodies of the West African
Monetary Union (comprising the same eight Waemu member countries). 



Significantly,
however, the eco will remain pegged to the euro and the Banque de France will
continue to guarantee the convertibility of the currency.



Although
these reforms represent the most substantial changes in the more than
seven-decade history of the CFA franc, it nevertheless received a mixed
reception. 



While
some commentators hailed the move as a significant breakaway from French
involvement and a step towards monetary independence, others pointed out that
the move was largely symbolic and the reforms ‘cosmetic’, as the maintenance of
the euro peg will continue to dictate the scope of regional monetary policy
decisions.



Another
significant challenge facing the eco lies in the Waemu member states satisfying
the convergence criteria for the adoption of the new common currency. 



Key
criteria are: maintaining a budget deficit of less than 3% of GDP; public debt
ratio of less than 70% of GDP; annual inflation rate of less than 10%; and, maintaining
a minimum of three months of import cover. Currently, it appears unlikely that
the majority of the Waemu countries will meet all these criteria by the very
ambitious inception date of July 2020.



Regional
giants and fellow Ecowas members Nigeria and Ghana have also weighed in on the
developments, adopting somewhat contrasting positions. 



While
Ghana came out strongly in favour of the eco and the formation of a broader
regional monetary union (although not in favour of the euro peg but rather a
floating exchange rate), Nigeria has taken a more cautious approach in first
considering its official response.



With
anti-colonial sentiment growing in the region, this move is perhaps mostly
symbolic at this stage, and is to the political benefit of Mr Ouattara and
France’s President Emmanuel Macron. However, this does not mean that it is not
significant. 



The
long-standing Ecowas goal of establishing an independent, regional monetary
union with a single currency remains in the minds of many in the region, and
the decision by the Waemu to make the first move may yet prove to be a valuable
viability test for this ideal. 



Yet, in the meantime, with the maintenance of the euro peg, the reforms are not expected to have much of an impact on the currency, at least not in the short- to medium term. Moreover, the goal of officially moving to the eco by mid-2020 may prove to be overly ambitious.

Westafrica_Wikimedia

Op-Ed: From CFA franc to ‘eco’, what you need to know about West Africa’s new currency

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301931/original/file-20191115-66973-fzxc4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
 <figcaption>
 The development of an industry in edible insects such as these mopane caterpillars has been slow.
 Shutterstock
 </figcaption>
 </figure>

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-musundire-870416">Robert Musundire</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/chinhoyi-university-of-technology-4166">Chinhoyi University of Technology</a>

There is a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/40128873_Insects_as_food_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa">wealth of indigenous knowledge</a> about capturing and eating insects in sub-Saharan Africa. But the development of edible insects as a food industry has been very slow, despite its many potential benefits. 

Sustainability is one. Insects have a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0051145#s4">small carbon and water footprint</a>. <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3253e/i3253e.pdf?utm_content=bufferf4265&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer.SEIresearch">Studies</a> show that insect farming emits less carbon and methane gas than large livestock like cattle and pigs. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/11/6190">Much less water</a> is needed to produce the same amount of protein. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032111003625?via%3Dihub">Insects use feed</a> more efficiently than other sources of animal protein. Farming them could be a new source of jobs and income. 

There should be more awareness and promotion of insects as food for humans and as feed for animals, especially at the policy, legislative and business level. In most African nations, edible insects are still viewed as an insignificant source of food and even, in some instances, as food for the poor. There are very few success stories of large-scale insect farming and industrial use in Africa. 

We have been involved <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqc57qRcpTo&amp;feature=youtu.be">in a project</a> to promote the integrated use of insects as food in urban areas in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our project works on the edible insect value chain and discovered that the seasonal supply of insects and poor hygiene standards made the market unstable and unattractive to consumers. Traders sold insects in an informal setting and had little interaction with farmers. 

We carried out training among farmers, traders, municipalities and others with an interest in this emerging industry. The training included how to handle and process insects after they were harvested, food safety along the value chain and farming crickets (Acheta domesticus and Gryllus bumaculatus).

The trainees have learnt how to rear and sell insects better and have become more aware of what a sustainable value chain should look like. For example, market facilities have to be clean and there must be a steady supply of insects. The training also created awareness of the need to farm insects rather than catching them in the wild. Catching insects can reduce insect populations dramatically when consumption increases. And there are no food safety standards for wild insects. 

Together with the urban council in the town of Chinhoyi in Zimbabwe we built a model market structure where traders are selling their insects. Traders are selling some of the most popular edible insects; wild harvested mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina), termites (Macrotermes natalensis) and wild harvested crickets. Farmers are still building stocks of farmed crickets, but the plan is to sell farmed crickets in the near future. It is still too early to see the impact but one notable improvement is hygiene. The market has also helped women traders, who are the main group selling insects there. They have become more organised about their business. 

We hope this will lead to an increase in consumer willingness to buy edible insects, and demonstrate best practice to other regions of Zimbabwe and beyond. Through our project, we have also helped insect traders and farmers to form industry associations. 

<h2>Why insects are valuable</h2>

Insects are <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3253e/i3253e.pdf?utm_content=bufferf4265&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer.SEIresearch">highly nutritious and contain protein</a>, fat and energy in proportions similar to grains, vegetables and seeds. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S122686151830671X">They are rich</a> in macro minerals like calcium, sodium and magnesium and micro minerals like zinc, manganese, iron and copper, all of which should be part of a healthy diet. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, these minerals come from fruits and vegetables, most of which are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919216303840?via%3Dihub">farmed seasonally</a>. Edible insects could supply these minerals during seasons where there is less fruit and vegetable production.

They contain essential amino acids such as threonine, cysteine, valine, methionine and isoleucine. The recommended daily minimum intake of amino acids can be consumed by eating just 100 grams of the <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0145914">edible stink bug</a> (Encosternum delegorguei), for example. 

Earlier this year, parts of eastern and southern Africa were ravaged by <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/crisis-update-cyclones-idai-and-kenneth">Cyclone Idai</a>. The cyclone destroyed crops and livestock, causing severe food shortages. We believe that in disaster-struck areas, edible insects can build resilience by being a food resource in recovery programmes and an alternative to traditional smallholder farming. There is an <a href="https://foodtank.com/news/2018/03/farms-for-orphans-insect-farming-democratic-republic-congo/">excellent example </a>of that in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where orphanages have started insect farms to grow their own protein. The farms have helped decrease hunger and improve health among the orphans.

<hr>

 
 
 Read more:
 <a href="http://theconversation.com/economic-chaos-is-causing-a-food-security-and-humanitarian-crisis-in-zimbabwe-124791">Economic chaos is causing a food security and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe</a>
 
 

<hr>


<h2>What needs to happen?</h2>

We were involved in setting up an <a href="https://www.slu.se/EdibleInsectsAfrica">international conference</a> in Zimbabwe to discuss ways to foster the edible insects industry. 

Research is required so that policy makers and those involved in the sector – farmers, processes, marketers and consumers – can make evidence-based decisions. This must happen across disciplines. Researchers should work with farmers and people in business to foster skills, innovation and enterprise. For example, they could develop business cases and scenarios.

Policy makers must understand that the sector is unique. Edible insects have not been categorised under any agricultural sub-sector such as crop or animal farming. On the African continent, they have not previously been farmed and treated as a commodity. That is why it would be helpful to establish and coordinate platforms such as meetings, workshops, exhibitions, magazines and websites.

Policy should also allow innovation and investment to happen at national, regional and international levels. Industry participants will need access to markets and credit.

Farmers, food and feed processors, traders and marketers must seize opportunities to invest and enter niche markets. They can also contribute to policy development and share knowledge about traditional ways of producing and eating insects. 

There is <a href="http://www.mopaneworm.com/">momentum</a> generated by <a href="https://ace2.iucea.org/index.php/2018-01-22-22-04-02/aces-at-a-glance/sacids-2">several research</a> and business initiatives that <a href="https://gourmetgrubb.com/">have been ignited</a> in sub-Saharan Africa. And there is growing enthusiasm for using edible insects as alternative sources of protein and to build resilience against climatic shocks. It’s an essential step towards improving food security in the region.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125828/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-musundire-870416">Robert Musundire</a>, Associate Professor of Entomology in the Department of Crop Science and Post-Harvest Technology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/chinhoyi-university-of-technology-4166">Chinhoyi University of Technology</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-were-involved-in-a-project-in-africa-to-promote-edible-insects-125828">original article</a>.

Shutterstock_Insects

This project in Africa promotes edible insects, here’s why

By David S. Levin, writer from New York 



For what it’s worth, I’m not an alarmist. I write what I see in an attempt to make sense of the bedlam swirling all around us. But frankly, a lot of what’s happening lately is actually pretty damn alarming. Today, there are vital freedoms like privacy that are under attack from anxious governments all over that see it as a threat to their dominion and sovereignty. And they’re using bleeding-edge technology as their weapon of choice. 



Thanks to a burgeoning electronic surveillance
industry, a grim high-tech future is slowly unfolding that could’ve been
written by George Orwell himself. But, instead, it’s being written by
technocrats and politicians. And you can bet your last bitcoin that if Big
Brother isn’t snooping around your country yet, they will be soon enough. 



Enter China. The 800-pound dystopian
gorilla in the room and the poster child for mass public surveillance gone mad.
To the Chinese, privacy is the enemy of the state. So, the government, not known
for its delicate touch, rolled-out the Skynet Project and put up 200 million
CCTV cameras across the country that feed directly into local and regional law
enforcement agencies. That basically works out to one camera for every seven
people there; watching, identifying, recording and analysing every move they
make. 



Cleverly wrapped in the guise of “public
safety,” the literal Chinese translation of the word Skynet is “Tianwang” which
is part of an idiom that means “justice is always done.” This way, none of
China’s 1.4 billion citizens will ever have to think too hard about who’s in
charge. 



But that’s just the prologue. By some
estimates, they’re expected to reach a staggering 625 million CCTV cameras, all
outfitted with artificial intelligence and video analytics, within just a few
years. And there are some projections showing numbers that are even higher. The
saying “you can run but you can’t hide” has taken on an entirely new meaning
there. 



In today’s China, everyone’s a suspect.



And here’s the punchline.
Despite all the moral outrage about this in the West, not to mention the
fallout from Donald Trump’s punitive trade war with China, much of the
technology used there is still developed and sold by top American tech
companies like Hewlett Packard, IBM, Microsoft, Intel, and Seagate
Technologies. And not just to the Chinese. Silicon Valley companies have an
active presence in 32 countries around the world.



Last year, the worldwide
market for video surveillance stood at $36.89bn of which China accounted for
nearly $18 billion. And according to IHS Markit, by the end of 2021 the number
of surveillance cameras deployed worldwide is expected to top one billion. 



Suffice it to say, Big Tech
is all in on the global surveillance boom. No matter who buys it. 



China’s President, Xi Jinping, is
busily building a digital authoritarian empire in his own image. And just to be
sure he’s around long enough to see the completion of his grand masterpiece, he
removed term-limits to China’s constitution and is now president for life. Nice
touch.



His cutting-edge surveillance state is
tracking China’s resident’s day and night with sophisticated facial recognition
technology, zeroing in on criminals and people whose
“tendencies” go against the state. With hundreds of citizens displayed in a
single video frame, cameras place thin yellow squares around people’s faces
with unique identifying numbers on top as they walk the streets in cities like
Beijing or Qingdao. Fed into massive government databases, complex algorithms
crunch and analyse the images, tracking and identifying people who might be
considered suspicious for any number of reasons and then notifying law
enforcement or other agencies. 



In Xinjiang
recently, which is a semi-autonomous, largely Muslim region in northwestern
China, their provincial surveillance system recently identified 24,000
suspicious persons in a single week using facial recognition technology. Of
those, 15,000 were sent to re-education camps to be “standardized.” Clearly,
the Chinese have figured out that combining Mao Zedong-style repression with
unrelenting electronic surveillance is the perfect digital stick to regulate
the masses. 



But now, they’re getting really creative.
They’re using their sprawling web of closed-circuit cameras, database
technology and artificial intelligence to feed directly into a scoring system
that assigns “social credit scores” to each of their citizens. It is designed
to rate their trustworthiness and “public desirability” by analyzing their
social behavior and then determining what they can do, what they can buy, and
even if they can travel. 



And as part of a broader
surveillance push, and in the name of national security, they’re even
“encouraging” people to use <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone_app">mobile phone apps</a>
developed by the government that allow civilians
to report violations against the state. In the old days, it was just called
ratting out your friends and neighbors. Now, thankfully, like everything else
these days, there’s an app for that.



In China, Big Brother has arrived with a bang.
Call it Mao 2.0&nbsp;&nbsp; 



So, here’s the question. How
long will it be until other governments start pushing the line like the Chinese
have? Try imagining this in the U.S. or the UK.
Maybe in Brazil or Canada. “That would never happen here” you’re probably
thinking to yourself.&nbsp; Well, don’t think
too hard. Because much of the technology being used in China is already in use
in other countries around the world. Just not quite in the same way. At least
not yet.



The West has been watching
the Chinese develop their digital web since they first laid out the blueprints
for the wholesale surveillance of its citizenry. The United States already has
over 60 million CCTV cameras feeding into law enforcement around the country.
In the UK, there are an estimated 6 million of them. According to some
estimates, the average Londoner is caught on camera roughly 300 times a day. And
in the U.S., cities like Washington, Orlando and Denver are openly testing
facial recognition and other AI technologies in their policing. As expected, the
lawsuits are flying fast and furious.&nbsp; 



What’s happening in China today
should be viewed as a cautionary tale for the U.S. and other democracies. Mass electronic
surveillance has serious implications for the way urban life will play out in
the decades ahead. And there is nothing the Chinese are doing that couldn’t be implemented
anywhere else given the right, or more accurately, the wrong political conditions.




If this potential dire future
isn’t halted through the use of a strong judicial system and hardened grass-
roots activism, what’s happening in China today could be a preview of the way
order is established and maintained in the 21st century.



And George Orwell could wind
up being even be more prophetic than any of us ever dreamed.

Op-ed: Why China’s video surveillance should be viewed as a cautionary tale for democracies around the world

By David S. Levin, writer from New York 



It’s hardly a secret that many Republicans across the United States hold Donald Trump directly responsible for the creeping demise of their once grand political party. The party of Lincoln, Reagan and Teddy Roosevelt. A proud party with a long, conservative lineage and history. 



But three years into his presidency, Donald
Trump has left the Republicans politically disfigured and fatigued by his reckless
antics. He’s like a bad punchline that few people understand. And despite his
successes (yes, he’s had some), many of his policies continue to antagonise friend
and foe alike, moving the party even further outside the new political mainstream.




For many on both sides, his presidency is
nothing short of a national emergency right up there with climate change and
the threat of nuclear war. But despite all the angst, Trump isn’t actually the reason
behind the Republicans downfall. He’s more of a symptom of it. 



What’s killing off the Republicans is really
much simpler. It’s the maths. It’s the changing generational and ethnic demographics
in the United States as the electorate gets younger, browner and more Asian; most
of whom historically vote Democratic at the ballot box. 



Just look at the numbers. There are currently
73 million multi-ethnic millennials and 68 million ideologically similar gen-zers
in the U.S., who together, comprise the largest voting bloc in the country. Not
surprisingly, a Gallup poll recently found that seven in ten millennials would
vote for a socialist candidate for president. Their bet is that a new,
socialist-inspired Democratic party led by the likes of Bernie Sanders or
Elizabeth Warren could seize the levers of power in Washington and sand blast
away all the sins of the past. Good luck with that.



To many of these younger Americans, the U.S.
and by extension, capitalism, is a rigged system of biased government institutions,
fossilised politicians, irresponsible corporations and billionaire business
leaders who have razed the country for personal gain and cheated them out of
the quality of life they deserve. And they gripe that because of this, their
lives are eternally stuck in the mud &#8211; wheels furiously spinning, dirt flying everywhere,
and going nowhere fast. 



To them, it’s time for a change and they have
the wind at their back. The
natural order of the universe has it that every generation passes the torch on
to the next one. And they are ready. According to the Pew Research Center, it
is projected that the millennials will overtake the baby boomers as
America’s largest generation by 2020 as the boomers continue to age and decline
as a percentage of the population. &nbsp;



When voters go to the polls in November, baby
boomers and those remaining from the generation before them, will account for four
in ten eligible voters. This is a significant drop from the year 2000 when the
number was seven in ten voters. And with each passing election cycle, those figures
will continue to trend downward. In addition, the balance of Americas ethnic
make-up is changing as well. The days of a white, Euro-centric dominated U.S.
population &#8211; who comprise the base of the Republican party &#8211; are dwindling.
None of this bodes well for the Republicans.



What all this means for U.S. politics in
the years to come is nothing short of a sea change. A grass roots reorganisation
of the power structure in the country. A reshuffling of the
political deck, jokers and all.



The Democrats, once predominantly a party of
moderates and centrists, will continue to gradually be overrun by younger, quasi-progressives
pushing the party further left. And their ranks will steadily be fed by
immigration and naturalisation as time goes on. Within ten to 15 years, they
will be ideologically unrecognisable to many people in the country today. But
one thing is certain. As they continue to broaden their appeal to younger
Americans and a diversifying ethnic base, they will be a force to be reckoned
with. 



The Republicans on the other hand, are at a
crossroads. They have the opposite problem. And it’s a simple one. Adapt or
die. They remain frozen in time and largely outdated as they try to hang onto values
and ideas that much of the country is outgrowing.



And while there are a number of scenarios
that would have Donald Trump winning reelection in 2020, the problem for the
Republicans is longer term. Within two, maybe three, election cycles it is
unlikely they will be able to turn out enough votes to win the White House again,
or for that matter, the Congress. 



As they say in chess, checkmate. 



To even remain in the conversation in the
years ahead, they would need to radically redefine their brand and move from
the conservative right to a more diverse and inclusive center. A gargantuan
task for sure, a sociopolitical tug of war, and one that would be met by blunt
force from many of the party leaders. 



But it may already be too late for them
anyway. 



Because as the shifting
demographics of age and ethnicity continue to intersect, combined, these
numbers will ultimately tilt the balance of power leftward toward the
Democrats. And as the country further diversifies in the years ahead largely
due to immigration, this perfect storm of youth and colour
will be impossible for the Republicans to deny. Or beat in an election. &nbsp;



Unless they dramatically recalibrate their
message to address these new demographics, fewer and fewer voters will find
anything in common with their platform and they will be left on the outside looking
in for years to come. 



Or who knows. Maybe even longer.

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