By Zaynab Mohamed – Political Analyst



After Prime Minister Thomas Thabane deployed the army on the streets of Maseru over the weekend, South African mediators were sent to ease the tensions.



Two-day talks between stakeholders were concluded, with Deputy Prime Minister Monyane Moleleki and South African mediator Jeff Radebe signing an agreement which stated that, among other things, the processes of Parliament must continue to ensure that Mr Thabane will leave office with “dignity, grace and security”.



Mr Radebe told journalists that the “timeline is immediate” for Mr Thabane’s exit.



Mr Thabane, however, does not agree. The 80-year-old prime minister fired back in an interview published in the Lesotho Times on Thursday, April 23, saying, “People that I don’t report to [are] setting the time for my departure, their own convenient time. They have no right to do so … I don’t understand what all this rush is about. I am not going to give in to their demands.”



When the army was deployed, there were rumours that Police Commissioner Holomo Molibeli had been arrested. It later emerged that, although Mr Molibeli was not arrested, Mr Thabane did, in fact, order his arrest and that of two of his subordinates, but Lieutenant General Mojalefa Lesoela, the commander of the Lesotho Defence Force, refused to carry out this order.



Mr Thabane earlier (unsuccessfully) attempted to fire Mr Molibeli after he charged Mr Thabane with playing a part in the murder of his ex-wife Lipolelo Thabane.



The deal to form a new coalition government signed by the All Basotho Congress (ABC) and the Democratic Congress (DC) is now supported by enough MPs to guarantee the 61-seat threshold. Two of Mr Thabane’s current coalition partners, the Basotho National Party (BNP) and the Reformed Congress of Lesotho (RCL), support the ABC-DC coalition and so does a smaller opposition party, the Popular Front for Democracy (PFD).



Now that parliamentary proceedings can go ahead, steps towards the vote of no confidence are being taken.



The Senate will be sitting on Friday, April 24, to approve an amendment bill which advises King Letsie III to dissolve Parliament if Mr Thabane loses a vote of no confidence. Once approved by the Senate, the amendment bill will then have to be signed into law by King Letsie.



Then the lower house will sit for the vote of no confidence, which Mr Thabane looks certain to lose.



By deploying the army to restore order, Mr Thabane showed his willingness to resort to violence, but with General Lesoela refusing to carry out his orders, bloodshed was avoided this time.



With all odds against him – a murder case, a vote of no confidence, and a disobedient army boss – we would assume that Mr Thabane would have cut his losses by now.



However, he still stands firm, making us wonder what he still has planned for the mountain kingdom.

Op-Ed: Thabane puzzled by “all this rush”

By Victor Oladokun



Across Africa, affordable housing is in acute short supply. It is one of the reasons why lockdowns and social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic are unimaginable and unsustainable. The pandemic is therefore a time bomb waiting to explode in Africa&#8217;s most densely populated informal settlements.



During this global lockdown, millions in the West will have the luxury of couch surfing through endless hours of Netflix or Tik Tok. But in Africa’s most congested and highly populated cities and slums, millions of families will be confined to less than 2 square meters of living space in unsanitary conditions. &nbsp;



What is urgently needed is a radical re-think.



Ticking Time Bombs



Slums and inhumane living conditions have been permanent fixtures of Africa&#8217;s urban landscapes for decades. The rapid growth of informal settlement is the result of a combination of factors. Accelerated urbanization, policy flip flops, the absence of adequate planning and foresight, the lack of infrastructure, low income levels, and the desperation of tens of thousands who arrive daily in pursuit of an even more elusive golden fleece.



In these epicenters of misery, millions of Africans, stripped of their dignity, live in appalling make-shift conditions with no hope of decent lives, nor access to water, sanitation and other basic necessities. The social and economic aberration runs deep. The slums exist on the periphery of more opulent and upscale neighbourhoods.



With a combined population of almost 50 million people, three of Africa&#8217;s megacities, Lagos, Cairo, and Kinshasa, are the continent&#8217;s most densely populated. Major centres of commercial activity, they attract the lion’s share of their respective country’s domestic and foreign investment. This is where the jobs are. And so, each day, millions of Africans travel commute for hours on crowded buses with poor ventilation, in order to engage in manual labour that barely covers the cost of transportation. &nbsp;



Face Me – I Face You



In Nigeria, with a population of 180 million people, and where I spent my formative years, millions are aware of what is known as ‘Face me &#8211; I Face You&#8217; dwellings. These are communal buildings with rooms that face one another divided only by a long corridor. In appalling cramped conditions, families occupy single rooms with shared toilet facilities and little or no access to water and sanitation.



Yet, residents in these living-hells are a notch higher on the social pecking order, for want of a better expression. At a level lower are the millions of day labourers who pay the equivalent of 20 cents or less a night for the &#8216;privilege&#8217; of laying their head for a few hours on a bare floor in a communal room with as many as 10-15 other grown men.&nbsp;



The short-term abodes are known as&nbsp;‘Taan lese’ or better still ‘Ta lo le se.”&nbsp; Translated from the Yoruba language, this means &#8220;Who&#8217;s leg is it?&#8221; The phrase aptly describes the packed sardine-like conditions in which the occupants spend the ‘night’, literally toe to toe.&nbsp;



They must rise early before dawn and make room for others who will occupy the same space during the day. For them and millions of &#8216;Face Me &#8211; I Face You&#8217; slum dwellers, these inhumane living conditions are death traps, one way or the other.



This week, as the long-term impact of the lockdown began to take effect in some countries, groups of young hungry men broke into supermarkets and homes in search of food.



Given the restrictions Covid-19 imposes and the lurking dangers ahead, short- and long-term solutions are urgently needed to decongest thousands of slums, improve the lives of millions of poor families, and stop the transmission of this and other future pandemics.



Africa and it’s Diaspora are not lacking in skills, imagination, creativity or talent. What is required are resources, partnerships, and cutting the red tape of bureaucracy and corruption.



Decongesting Africa&#8217;s Slums



Here are a few viable solutions.



<ul class="wp-block-list" type="1"><li>The enactment of viable short-term emergency measures to house the most vulnerable during this pandemic, particularly the elderly, disabled, and those infected and recovering.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Urgent engagement with public, private sector and non-governmental partners to address and resolve immediate challenges. Working in conjunction with the private sector the innovative Africa Investment Forum, USAID, DFID, Germany&#8217;s KfW, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JAICA), and Agence Française de Développement’s Proparco, are all excellent platforms for crowding in resources for housing development, healthcare facilities, water and sanitation.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Long-term plans including the conversion of low-level agricultural spaces and brown sites into residential areas. Also, the conversion of abandoned or under-utilised commercial buildings into housing units, will boost supplies. </li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Increased public spending on affordable housing would provide millions living in marginal communities with either free or heavily subsidised housing, electricity and water.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Incentives to attract private sector players into the housing construction business.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Decongesting urban areas and decentralising development by moving some government ministries and industries across provinces or states.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>The promotion and creative use of sustainable materials to build affordable housing, instead of a primary reliance on steel and concrete.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Removing policies, processes and practices, that get in the way of eradicating slums and rent seeking slumlords.</li></ul>



Waiting: An illusive luxury



For the benefit of all and in the face of a virus that does not respect geographical boundaries, Africa&#8217;s leaders must urgently, creatively and radically address the chronic shortage of housing, water and sanitation, as well as the distribution of free masks.



Ultimately, a re-arrangement of national space, a reimagining of dwellings, a boom in the construction&nbsp;of housing, and the use of sustainable building materials, will have ripple multiplier effects. It will create jobs, enhance skills, improve qualities of life, reinvigorate local economies and incentivise the private sector.



We risk losing whole populations who have no defence against a ravaging pandemic.



Waiting is an illusive luxury. Time has run out!



&#8211; Victor Oladokun, is the former Director of Communication, African Development Bank Group



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Op-Ed: Africa’s lockdown nightmare

By Millicent Clarke, Regional Head of Human Resources, Standard Chartered AME



The COVID-19 pandemic has led many organisations to adopt new ways of working, including a remote working policy for their employees. During times like these, an organisation’s top priority is to ensure the safety, security and wellbeing of its workforce, whilst at the same time, maintaining productivity.



Here are a few useful tips which organisations can follow to ensure that working remotely goes hand in hand with ensuring the continuity, and success, of a business.



Communication is key



Transparency and clarity between employees and senior leadership is crucial. Organisations must ensure that staff are up to date on all ongoing internal developments, as well as announcements from local authorities on relevant procedures and processes. This should also be introduced as a resource for client work, or any ongoing projects, as People Leaders decide on next steps. People Leaders should also regularly circulate updates to employees via email or their preferred method of communication.



For more on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> 



Employees should also feel that an ‘open-door’ policy is metaphorically endorsed throughout the remote working period. This means ensuring that efficient channels of communication are in place to facilitate simple two-way interaction. Employees should be informed of the decided channels for communication, as well as what they should expect in terms of coordinated meetings with the wider team thereafter.



Fool-proof Toolkit



Before you and your team set out on your remote working journey, you must ensure that you are all armed with the right tools in hand. This may be subject to what your organisation’s preferred hardware and software tools are, however, the central goal is to efficiently conduct day-to-day activities and minimise tech-related blunders.



The essentials to any team toolkit include: a desktop, laptop, or tablet, high-speed internet connection, basic hardware accessories, a reliable video-conferencing software and your preferred tool for project/task management.



Advocate for new ways of working



Yes, remote working in-and-of-itself is a perplexing method of conducting business for most, especially if you’ve become increasingly accustomed to an office setting. However, this is the time to test your leadership skills and your team’s ability to remain resilient during times of uncertainty.



Challenging our own paradigms can be a daunting task to undergo, yet, it has the ability to change your team’s entire dynamic, for the better. Take the time to leverage the circumstances you’re under and capitalise on your team’s successes, address their pain points and identify opportunities for improvement. All in all, you should come out with better knowledge of your team’s group dynamic and accustom your management approach thereafter.&nbsp;



Counsel your colleagues



In times of change and uncertainty, your staff’s safety and wellbeing should continuously be taken into consideration. For some employees, remote working, as well as the uncertainty of the situation, may bring about feelings of stress, anxiety and unease. Besides the negative impact this will have on your business, this may take a lasting toll on your staff’s emotional wellbeing. In turn, it is crucial to prioritise empathetic thinking when dealing with employees and aiding in the combat of their mental health issues.



Implementing emotional and behavioural intelligence across your communicative methods will aid in alleviating any internal anxiety or stress on your staff’s current working conditions. Employees will become more comfortable with flagging their concerns and promoting a sense of unity and understanding within the wider team.&nbsp;



Establish clear guidelines



In order to efficiently lead your workforce, your employees should be given defined boundaries and policies to adhere to. Compile a comprehensive guide, inclusive of provisions on sick leaves, paid leave and sabbaticals, and circulate this to the wider team. This will mitigate against any confusion relating to proper business governance and procedural changes.



And, as always, keep the line of communication between yourself and your colleagues open, if ever they need guidance on a situation.



Virtual suggestion box



Who better to showcase the success of a remote working policy than the employees?



Organisations should encourage employees to be open about any challenges they are facing while working remotely. This way, they can be quickly addressed and solved to avoid any future issues. What’s more, employees should also highlight examples of what has been working well for them in their roles and any key learnings they can share with their colleagues which can be adapted.



Plan for contingencies



As we all know, not everything works according to plan. This is especially true for an uncertain and uncharted situation. In turn, senior leadership must account for potential contingencies that may arise and be ready to overcome unwarranted obstacles.



This can vary from large, unanticipated pieces of work from clients, or an organisation-wide system malfunction. Now, hopefully, your IT team is well equipped to handle the situation accordingly and your communication channels allow you to delegate large tasks to your wider team. However, when all else fails, your contingency plan will serve as a cushion for any unexpected setbacks.



In order to maintain resilient business continuity, leaders will exhibit their strategic mindsets and shape their own opportunities, as opposed to adapting to changing conditions. In the midst of fundamental and structural changes to your industry, a contingency plan will allow you to position your organisation as a market leader and prompts the introduction of valuable propositions.



Embrace the 3 Ps



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Proactiveness</li></ul>



Since clients may be experiencing a slowdown in operations, you should anticipate a sudden pause on ongoing tasks. In turn, this is a great time to tackle projects that you could not find time for in the past. This period could also serve as the ideal time to provide your clients with proactive suggestions, as well as contemplate your long-term strategic plans. &nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Productiveness</li></ul>



Make the effort to ensure that your employees are working productively and efficiently.



Productive employees will usually follow daily routines, so, try to simulate this in your remote working culture. Whether this is actively encouraging your staff to take a lunch break or log-off at the end of the workday, they should feel that working from home is no different than an average day at the office.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Positivity</li></ul>



Employees’ attitudes and perceptions have a prominent effect on the work they do. In turn, it is essential that you prioritise your people’s morale and advocate for positivity during trying times of uncertainty. Try to regularly share positive affirmations with your staff members, whether it’s a joke that made you laugh out loud or praising another colleague’s great work.

shutterstock_401742355

COVID-19: How to ensure your business keeps running while working remotely

By Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka



The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the world’s most significant events, has resulted in cessation of economic activities that will lead to a significant decline in GDP, an unprecedented social disruption, and the loss of millions of jobs. According to estimates by the African Development Bank, the contraction of the region’s economies will cost Sub-Saharan Africa between $35 billion and $100 billion due to an output decline and a steep fall in commodity prices, especially the crash of oil prices.



More fundamentally, the pandemic has brutally exposed the hollowness of African economies on two fronts: the fragility and weakness of Africa’s health and pharmaceutical sectors and the lack of industrial capabilities. The two are complementary.



This is because Africa is almost 100 percent dependent on imports for the supply of medicines.



According to a recent McKinsey (2019) study, China and India supply 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand for medicine, worth $14 billion. China’s and India’s markets are worth $120 billion and $33 billion respectively. Consider a hypothetic situation where both India and China are unable or unwilling to supply the African market? Africa surely faces a health hazard.



The root of Africa’s underdeveloped industrial and health sectors can be encapsulated in three ways. First, some African policy makers simply think that poor countries do not need to industrialize. This group believes the “no-industrial policy” advocates who engage in rhetoric that does not fit the facts. The histories of both Western societies, and contemporary lessons from East Asia, run contrary to that stance.



Clearly, governments have an important role to play in the nature and direction of industrialization. Progressive governments throughout history understand that the faster the rate of growth in manufacturing, the faster the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).



From the Economist magazine five years ago: “BY MAKING things and selling them to foreigners, China has transformed itself—and the world economy with it. In 1990 it produced less than 3% of global manufacturing output by value; its share now is nearly a quarter. China produces about 80% of the world’s air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. Today, China is the world’s leader in manufacturing and produces almost half of the world’s steel.” The keyword is “making”.



Two, rich countries therefore became rich by manufacturing and exporting to others, including high-quality goods and services. Poor African countries remain poor because they continue to produce raw materials for rich countries. For example, 70% of global trade in agriculture is in semi-processed and processed products. Africa is largely absent in this market while the region remains an exporter of raw materials to Asia and the West.



Lastly, African countries are repeatedly told that they cannot compete based on scale economy, and as well, price and quality competitiveness because China will outcompete them. For this reason, they should jettison the idea of local production of drugs, food and the most basic things.



The question is: &nbsp;How did Vietnam, with a population of 95 million, emerge from a brutal 20-year war and lift more than 45 million people out of poverty between 2002 and 2018 and develop a manufacturing base that spans textiles, agriculture, furniture, plastics, paper, tourism and telecommunications? It has emerged as a manufacturing powerhouse, becoming the world’s third-largest exporter of textiles and garments (after China and Bangladesh).



Vietnam currently exports over 10 million tonnes of rice, coming third after India and China.



How is it that Bangladesh, a country far poorer than many African countries, is able to manufacture 97% of all its drugs demand, yet it is next door to India, a powerhouse of drug manufacturing?



The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed Africa. African leaders need to look in the mirror and ask where this continent will be in 2030 and 2063. Africa must adopt progressive industrial policies that create inclusive, prosperous and sustainable societies.



What then should be done? A three-pronged approached is urgently needed.



First, Africa needs a strong regional coordination mechanism to consolidate small uncompetitive firms operating in small atomistic market structures. With a consumer base of 1.3 billion and $3.3 trillion market under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the continent has no choice but to bring together its fragmented markets.



Second, Africa needs to build better institutions, strengthen weak ones and introduce the ones missing. No better wake-up call is required than the present pandemic.



Third, one important institution that has been abruptly disrupted is the supply chain for medicines and food, for example. Logistics for transporting capital and consumer goods across the region need predictable structures. Building or strengthening supply chains involve fostering and providing regulations for long-term agreements and competences that leverage both private and public institutional challenges such as customs regulations.



Finally, development finance institutions (DFIs) such as the African Development Bank are mandated to, and are currently, trying to fill the gaps left by private financial institutions. There is an opportunity to Africa to rethink and reengineer its future. The Africa of tomorrow must look inwards for its solutions. &#8211; whether in feeding its own people, build industrial powerhouses led by African champions.



The African Development Bank stands ready to help target and push for deeper economic transformation. Africa needs to execute structurally transformative projects that generate positive externalities and social returns. Keep our eyes on the days after.



Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, is the Senior Special Adviser on Industrialization to the President of the African Development Bank. He is a fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering and Professorial Fellow, United Nations University. His recent book is “Resurgent Africa: Structural Transformation and Sustainable Development”, UK: Anthem Press, 2020



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Sub-Saharan Africa to suffer 23.1% decline in remittances in 2020 – World Bank

Op-Ed: Where will Africa be post COVID-19?

By Mansoor Hamayun, CEO and Co-Founder of Bboxx



As COVID-19 continues to make its way through Africa, this global pandemic poses a huge threat to the off-grid energy sector and the millions of customers it serves. UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 – energy for all – unlocks the potential of people, businesses, communities and whole countries at scale. Access to energy is the trigger for economic growth as it powers sustainable development by providing opportunities not previously possible.



Yet governments are faced with an almost impossible task: the competing duality of putting health of citizens first while also ensuring economies do not collapse, which itself would lead to irretrievable damage to health, education and livelihood opportunities for all.



While 840 million people still live without electricity and a further 1 billion live without a reliable electrical supply, significant progress has been made in recent years on expanding energy access globally. But without urgent action, off-grid energy could essentially be wiped out – a major step back for universal energy access and economic development.



Research by GOGLA, the global association for the off-grid solar energy sector, recently found that 50% of off-grid companies could be in serious financial trouble if the COVID-19 crisis lasts for more than three to four months. This would plunge millions of people back into energy poverty, once again cut off from the opportunities provided by clean, reliable and affordable electricity.



At this pivotal juncture for the sector, a global coordinated approach is needed to tackle this head on, ensuring continuity of energy provision and that we are there for the communities we power. The sector must build self-reliance, and quickly, to ensure that essential energy does not fall through the cracks. We cannot do it all so we need to focus on what we can influence alongside key partners, so that this important <a>sector acts as part of the solution. This will ensure that energy access continues so that economic opportunities are sustained, and damage is mitigated where possible. &nbsp;</a>



We all need to recognise the role we can play, and we stand ready to work with and collaborate further across the off-grid energy industry, governments, Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), investors, and the donor community to overcome these mounting challenges.



So how can off-grid energy companies form part of the solution?



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Harnessing technology and distribution infrastructure: The off-grid pay-as-you-go sector benefits from remote management of services via technology, so is well placed to operate in these unprecedented times. Through established distribution networks and infrastructure, supply chains, call centres and workforces, off-grid companies have the potential to reach large parts of previously unreachable rural populations in Africa. Looking ahead, there is potential to partner with local governments and health organisations to ensure critical infrastructure remains electrified. Off-grid energy companies also have the capabilities to harness data analytics to provide critical insights in understanding the potential economic impacts of COVID-19 on a rural population where there has previously been a complete lack of data.&nbsp;</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Necessity of speed of response and bringing partners together: The virus has changed the world in just a few weeks. As such, investors, DFIs and donors will need to establish solutions to match this speed. Those with the funds operating in the impact space need to step in and provide blanket payment holidays to off-grid companies’ debt while also delaying any exit conversations. This will provide a buffer to companies providing such vital services. Alongside this, access to capital must remain strong and fast. We need to partner across the globe to accelerate subsidies to customers even quicker. We need this not only survive this crisis but to help combat and fight the inevitable increase in poverty as a result of this pandemic.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Bringing relief funds to the sector and its customers: We are encouraged to see that the sector’s leading investors and donors have banded together and shown deep understanding during this time of crisis. They have recognised that a looming liquidity shortfall that – if not remedied quickly – would leave many off-grid energy companies with no resort but to plunge their customers back into darkness. Such widespread insolvency would set the entire sector back and prevent us from reaching our shared goal of universal energy access. Now going a step further, additional discussion is needed on how to fund offering ‘Crisis Energy’ to existing customers. This would involve reimbursing the aggregate spend by off-grid companies in providing a minimum service for customers, even in the event of non-payment, to essentially ‘keep the lights on’ at such a crucial time.</li></ul>



The potential long-term impact of COVID-19 in countries across the African continent will vary due to strengths and weaknesses in healthcare provision, government cash positions, among a range of other factors. We recognise that while we are all in the fog of war against this pandemic, we still need to look to the horizon and to the ensuing peace. <a>The off-grid sector has a role to play in ensuring that energy access does not fall off a cliff, to be there for communities when they need it most, while doing what we can with key partners during these uncertain times.</a>



If we act now and ensure energy provision remains front of mind, we can contribute to triggering a return to economic growth and development in the long term, with widespread benefits for many citizens who had only recently been lifted out of energy poverty. We can then continue our shared mission of transforming lives and unlocking potential through access to energy.

Billionaire Bill Gates: 6 movies and TV shows to help relieve pandemic stress

Op-Ed: COVID-19 is a huge threat to Africa’s off-grid energy sector and its millions of customers – here’s what needs to be done

By Louw Nel – Political Analyst



Islamist extremist militants have carried out a spate of attacks targeting villages in the northern Cabo Delgado province on April 6 and 7.



According to reports, armed groups attacked the villages of Bilibiza, Meangalewa, Miengueleua, Muatide, Mueda, Muidumbe, and Ntchinga over two days, burning churches and buildings and abducting people in different locations. No one is believed to have been killed in the attacks.



This follows two incidents on March 23 and 25, in which militants launched brazen attacks and briefly occupied the towns of Mocímboa da Praia and Quissanga.



The first of those attacks was claimed by the Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) militant group, but groups active in the province since 2017 have also been referred to as Al-Shabab and Ansar al-Sunna, among others.



There are no conclusive links between the Mozambican jihadists and foreign-based Islamist extremist groups, and their motives and leadership structure remain unclear.



Mozambican authorities, alarmed by the attacks on Mocímboa da Praia and Quissanga and the threat they represented to the development of offshore natural gas finds, responded by saying that reinforcements were being deployed to Cabo Delgado.



This has clearly not succeeded in containing the threat posed by militants; however, the most recent attacks are more consistent with the groups’ modus operandi. Indeed, the attacks in March represented a significant escalation due to the size of the towns attacked and the fact that security forces had been stationed in both locations.



The more recent attacks targeted more familiar undefended, civilian locations, although Bilibiza is only 34km from Quissanga.



The escalation in Islamist militant activity in Cabo Delgado, along with depressed natural gas prices and concerns over the global coronavirus pandemic, will threaten proposed LNG projects.



Should the deteriorating security environment in the region result in the postponement or even reversal of investment decisions, Mozambique’s medium-term growth prospects will be seriously undermined.

Mozambique records first COVID-19 death

Op-Ed: Mozambique – Islamist militants continue attacks in Cabo Delgado

By The Africa Unusual Working Group*



COVID-19 has, in a matter of months, infected over a million people, torn apart families and societies, and destabilised economies. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has <a href="https://www.uneca.org/stories/eca-estimates-billions-worth-losses-africa-due-covid-19-impact">revised</a> Africa’s growth downwards, from 3.2% to 2%, and African economies will likely need a stimulus of <a href="https://www.uneca.org/stories/african-finance-ministers-call-coordinated-covid-19-response-mitigate-adverse-impact">$100 billion</a>. This does not even take into consideration the pandemic’s psycho-social ramifications.



Unprecedented times such as these call for rapid decision-making, coupled with innovative and effective solutions that can address continually evolving challenges. In the past few weeks, several African countries have taken swift action to get ahead of this crisis by implementing a spectrum of measures, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/african-nations-close-borders-cancel-flights-to-contain-coronavirus-spread-idUSKBN2120YR">closing borders</a>, instituting <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-logic-of-ghanas-lockdown-why-coronavirus-demands-special-attention-135356">curfews and lockdowns</a>, providing <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-logic-of-ghanas-lockdown-why-coronavirus-demands-special-attention-135356">public sanitation solutions</a>, <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202004040077.html">monitoring and treating cases</a>, and <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Uhuru-Kenyatta-announces-mitigation-measures-amid-pandemic/3946234-5504112-pgtmc/index.html">providing relief measures</a> for local businesses. It is evident that several African countries, which have been affected relatively later than some of their global counterparts, have learnt important lessons over the past few weeks and have applied these in their decision-making.



Yet, given the enormity and complexity of this problem, African countries should continue to observe and draw on regional, continental, and international best practices, while taking into account their respective local particularities. Now is the time for cross-sectoral collaborations, for top-down and bottom-up approaches, and for governments, private sector, NGOs, multilateral institutions, and individuals to all play their parts.&nbsp;



To supplement government efforts, mechanisms should be created to provide <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/cchub-funds-tech-to-curb-covid-19-on-concerns-of-an-africa-outbreak/">funding to African innovators</a>, who are developing <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20200402111933-ryh4w/">solutions to COVID-19 related issues</a>. Crowdfunding platforms can be a potential solution, but only if regulators are able to fast-track requisite policies and regulations to enable them to function effectively. African professionals, such as lawyers, financial advisors and consultants, can be galvanised to donate their time to support industries and sectors that have been severely affected by this pandemic and help them implement mitigating strategies. Dalberg Advisors’ Safe Hands initiative, which is taking a multi-pronged approach encompassing inputs, manufacturers, funders, distributors, and policy to support the product and distribution of essential medical supplies at scale, serves as a case in point.  Corporations should also be willing to reorient their talent pool and repurpose their facilities to address the most critical issues arising from this pandemic. Accra-based company DTRT Apparel is gearing up to manufacture a range of personal protective equipment (PPEs) to supply Africa and the rest of the world. Companies must work together in redeploying their employees who would otherwise be redundant to companies facing higher demand, akin to a brilliant <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-estonia-was-poised-to-handle-how-a-pandemic-would-change-everything">programme proposed in Estonia</a>.



<a href="https://egyptindependent.com/cbe-ramps-up-measures-to-support-egypts-economy-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/">Business continuity, especially for MSMEs</a> who are particularly vulnerable during this time, is a critical economic consideration. Jobs need to be retained and national government must move quickly to provide relief measures for this. Countries like <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdq3cltkuCK0bPSNHGAi7MFZh8_SsW4Glke5yY_5HZR_vC-Qg/viewform">Kenya</a> and <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfQ2dYOrAM_aXwjJwm5VBrEm7sVWV5GJoSmO59oLznH8lACFw/viewform">Ghana</a> have been deploying surveys to understand the difficulties businesses are facing as a result of COVID-19, including plunging revenues, disruptions in supply chains, inability to work remotely, and having business models that are simply untenable in the context of a global pandemic. Under such circumstances, governments can &#8211; and several have already done so &#8211; offer stimulus packages, including tax waivers and reductions; lower interest rates to make debt cheaper; provide low-interest intervention loans to vulnerable companies; defer statutory payments for a minimum of six months without penalties; amend policies on non-performing loans to prevent a systemic crisis among banks, and provide <a href="https://www.gov.sg/article/coping-with-covid-19-economic-measures">financial support to businesses</a> that may otherwise go bankrupt/fail to recover due to the crisis. The latter is especially important for informal sector businesses that cannot implement remote working measures.



Good governance in times of crisis requires a combination of top-down directives and bottom-up solutions. In combating this virus, one of the challenges that African governments are facing is a <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/04/04/some-african-governments-are-enforcing-lockdowns-brutally">lack of compliance with policy directives</a>. In some cases, the lack of compliance is not a result of disobedience, but rather structural and systemic factors unique to African countries. For instance, preventive measures, such as social distancing, are difficult to implement in informal settlements and slums where in many cases, families of six share one 20 square meter room. Also, informal sector jobs cannot be performed remotely. In light of this, extreme measures are likely to cause widespread social and humanitarian problems, as seen in places like India, where a nation-wide lockdown was instituted with a mere <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8-74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca">four hours notice</a>. In contrast, responses by several African countries, such as Angola, Senegal, Rwanda, Ghana, and Kenya, have been more measured.



For a more holistic approach, governments can offer <a href="https://www.wiego.org/covid-19-and-informal-workers-advocacy-action">free basic services to vulnerable communities</a>, including providing survival packs that can cater to daily needs and working with existing organizations &#8211; private sector and NGOs &#8211; who have distribution networks that are able to deliver at the last mile. African governments should lobby for debt relief, and suspension of short-term payments on sovereign bonds to free up money for more urgent needs. African countries can also take advantage of regional and continental channels to collaborate with each other and exchange information on solutions that have proven/are proving to be effective. Countries that have extensive experience in battling tough epidemics, in particular, could offer valuable lessons.



Finally, it will not be possible to implement any solution without effective, broad-based communication. In places like the <a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-outbreak/video-new-message-at-the-end-of-azan-in-uae">UAE</a>, religious leaders and institutions have used their reach and influence to disseminate critical public health messaging. Community-level engagement using village and other community elders is likely to be effective in circulating messages on preventive measures, as well as monitoring key developments in a localized manner. Offering free mobile data and public internet access can support remote working and widespread access to information. The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA), for instance, has signed an agreement with Google Loon that allows Loon Balloons to fly over Kenyan airspace carrying 4G base stations with a capacity to <a href="https://www.president.go.ke/2020/03/23/kenya-approves-roll-out-of-google-loon-4g-to-mitigate-coronavirus-work-disruptions/">provide wider internet coverage</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.busiweek.com/corona-virus-roke-telkom-offers-customers-free-unlimited-access-to-education-platforms/">Roke Telkom</a> in Uganda has launched a campaign to help businesses, education centers and individuals stay connected to education, communications, and productivity-enhancing applications and services at no extra cost.



COVID-19 is a test of leadership and our way of life at multiple levels &#8211; global, national, local, and even individual. In the face of an indiscriminate pandemic that has spilled across borders and impacted almost every aspect of our societies and economies, we must transcend existing silos and barriers &#8211; both real and perceived &#8211; to develop solutions that are holistic, inclusive, localized, and humane. And while we continue to grapple with urgent issues, we should also ask ourselves, what kind of world do we want to build when we come out on the other side of this? Because the answer to this question will also inform how we act today.



*The Africa Unusual Working Group is a cohort of professionals working across the African continent, who have come together to generate and lobby for practical solutions that can help combat COVID-19 within Africa. This op-ed reflects the collective views of its members: Mr. Isaac Kwaku Fokuo, Jr (Ghana), Ms. Marcia Ashong (Ghana), Ms. Ada Osakwe (Nigeria), Ms. Ory Okolloh (Kenya), Mr. Kwame Asiedu (Ghana), Mr. Lai Yahaya (Nigeria), Mr. Mohamed El Dahshan (Egypt), Ms. Elizabeth Howard (South Africa), Mr. Eric Kacou (Cote d’Ivoire), Ms. Biola Alabi (Nigeria), Ms. Aparupa Chakravarti (India), and Ms. Bathsheba Asati.(Kenya)

Africans singled out in southern China sparks diplomatic backlash

Op-Ed: Africa needs to work together, with all sectors of society to deal with COVID-19

By Victor Oladokun April 3, 2020



Two days ago, I received an urgent plea from Massimo, a good friend and a highly respected Italian journalist based in Rome. His message was simple, urgent and straight to the point.



 “Please Victor, pay attention” he urged. “This virus is not ‘just a flu’ as some still insist it is. Keep your distance. Wash your hands regularly. Don’t touch your face, eyes and mouth. Avoid crowded places where you cannot maintain the required social distance … pay attention my friend!”



Italy has given the rest of the world a tragic glimpse of what a lockdown needs to look, especially for countries that blink and fail to take action fast. Italy’s experience is an urgent wake-up call about the importance of swift and decisive action.



Massimo knows first-hand what’s at stake. A few hours earlier, he had lost a professional colleague. His country, which has a social culture very similar to Africa’s, now has more than 13,000 deaths from COVID-19. It is the highest number of fatalities anywhere in the world. And the body count is still rising.



Africa has had some lead time to learn important lessons and proactively engage&nbsp; the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other multilateral institutions, to hell put containment and preventative measures in place.



While others have wasted precious early moments, some countries and cities have been exemplars of what it takes to counter the spread of COVID-19. Rwanda for example, was the first country to take swift containment actions by placing portable sinks with running water in public spaces in its capital city and backing it up with a public awareness campaign. The Governor of Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial hub, was also quick to convert a local stadium into an isolation and recovery area. Last week, Nigeria’s President Muhamadu Buhari placed the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja, Lagos and two neighbouring States, under lockdown for two weeks. Ultimately, Nigeria with a population of 180 million, will have to lock down for an even longer period of time. 



Several other countries are following suit. But many others are woefully lagging behind. There is still an unwillingness to acknowledge that not taking decisive and painful short-term action, will have devastating long-term consequences. 



Exposing systemic weaknesses



In spite of Africa’s best efforts, more must be done. The outlook for the continent is grim unless swift proactive actions are taken. For now, the pandemic is exposing deep cracks and systemic weaknesses across the board including a general lack of emergency preparedness, weak governance, and political, economic, social, cultural and health threats.



Millions of Africans live on less than two dollars a day. The implication is simple. A lack of access to money, food, water and electricity, means extended lockdowns will not be easy to implement. High levels of poverty and other communicable diseases were already impacting health and wellbeing long before the arrival of the coronavirus. A shortage of well-equipped and well-funded healthcare facilities is just the tip of the iceberg. Everything from doctors, clinics, hospitals, beds, medical supplies and intensive care units are in chronic short supply.



However, the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and Liberia and collaborative action by African leaders and global partners, shows that where there is a will, there is always a way.



COVID-19 could not have arrived at a worse time for Africa. A crash in global commodity prices and a glut in the oil and gas markets has seen revenues drop precipitously. Further threats from nature, including the impact of devastating weather patterns such as Cyclone Idai and Henry and a recent plague of locusts, have to be managed alongside the pandemic.



Economically, the private sector and financial markets have taken a beating. The sudden reversal of fortunes is in stark contrast to a more positive projection in the African Development Bank’s 2020 African Economic Outlook when it was released in January 2020. The bandwidth of fiscal headroom is very thin. Commodity-sensitive economies are reeling under the effects of sudden price drops and the altered market reality of reduced global demand. Crude oil prices which now hover at $22 a barrel, have fallen more than 68% since January 2020. Non-oil commodity prices in natural gas and metals have also taken a nosedive.



Acting Fast and Thinking Authentically



Extended lockdowns carry inherent potential threats of their own and these must be managed. Along with underlying systemic weaknesses, the pandemic could unleash social unrest, the explosions of which will be as unprecedented as the virus itself.



We must therefore act fast and think authentically. Africa has its own particularities and to a certain extent, local contexts will require locally suited solutions, while drawing from global lessons. Recent videos of local communities forcefully resisting law enforcement and sanitation teams are already emerging. Such scenes are inevitable, for reasons of poverty, a lack of knowledge, and a chronic mistrust of authorities.



Concerns about informal settlements, some of the largest in the world, are a cause for worry, as is terrorism, economic and social exploitation and fragility.



Psychological impacts of a pandemic



Along with business and financial challenges, Africa’s leaders must prepare to address the social, physical and mental health fallouts from unavoidable lockdowns, social disruptions, the loss of basic human dignity, threats to civil life, and worse, the loss of life itself.



Several governments have grasped this and are stepping up, although time is not on their side. In many cases they have imposed limited two-week lockdowns in the first instance. The goal is not to alarm citizens. But this is unlikely to be sufficient as the virus apparently has its own agenda, pattern and timing! Realistically, beating COVID-19, is likely to require 6-10 weeks of total nationwide lockdowns, at a minimum.



 To not do so, is to sell an illusion. To not do so, is to delay the inevitable. To not do so, is to raise false hopes. To not do so, is to be complicit and irresponsible in the spread of this most virulent and devastating virus. Worse, it will be suicidal, not just for countries but for the continent.



Dealing with harsh realities



We must therefore deal with hard reality, scientific facts, current simulations and real global lessons. Cosmetic approaches will not work when surgical precision is required. We must marshal every resource in order to save lives … every life and especially those already living on the margins of society. The underlying ethos of Ubuntu which says – “I am, because you are,” must be unleashed with full force to save lives. We have to be brutally honest, in order to be kind to ourselves! The bottom line is that this is not a time for test runs.



Urgent action is needed now, not tomorrow. This includes –



<ol class="wp-block-list" type="1"><li>Making tough and seemingly unpopular leadership decisions that will ultimately save lives and society.</li><li>Using every communication platform possible to increase public awareness and promote containment and preventative measures.</li><li>Stepping up testing and reducing the wait time between tests and test results.</li><li>Mobilising the support of public influencers including traditional, religious, civil society, entertainment celebrities, women and youth leaders.</li><li>Introducing measures to secure food and medical supply channels, fixing basic food prices, and curbing hoarding and panic-buying.</li><li>Re-purposing public spaces including conference centres, stadiums and open spaces for use as isolation and recovery centres.</li><li>Leveraging every available advantage, by focusing on low hanging fruits. For example, regional economic communities could re-organise manufacturing and target the supply of critically needed medicines, equipment and medical supplies, as well as food packaging and processing.</li><li>Delaying debt obligations and buying time with global creditors through forbearance or payment postponements. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated one third of African countries were at risk of debt distress. Post-crisis, the numbers will be significantly higher.</li></ol>



Pandemics and other global crises do not respect boundaries, titles or positions, creed, faith, gender, culture or hierarchy.



Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate rightly tells us: “COVID-19 teaches us that we are all global citizens connected by a single virus that recognises none of our natural or man-made boundaries.” We are in this together, regardless of where we call home. “Umuntu ngumuntu ngabantu.” I am because you are.



Dr. Victor Oladokun is the former Director of Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank Group.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

AFRICA LOCKS DOWN: No Time For Lockdowns

Op-Ed: Africa locks down: No time for test runs

By Irmgard Erasmus – Senior Financial Economist



Acutely aware of Ethiopia’s vulnerability to the health and
economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
urged “collective leadership and coordinated responses” to overcome the
challenges posed by the unprecedented shock. 



The Ethiopian leader has taken a dominant position in the campaign
for comprehensive stimulus packages and debt relief for the African continent,
stressing that “we are not prepared to overcome the virus on our health systems
and the long-term impact on our economies”. 



Echoing this concern, a consortium of African ministers of finance
emphasised in a communique dated April 1 that “urgent need” exists “for fiscal
stimulus to contain the crisis”.



On April 1, G20 leaders indicated that they are preparing a
response package for Africa that will include debt relief and financial aid.
The response package will incorporate “recent demands from President Cyril
Ramaphosa of South Africa and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia”, according
to Politico. 



This also came after the United Nations Economic Commission for
Africa (UNECA) again requested the “urgent and immediate release” of a $100bn
support package to aid domestic response actions in the fight against the
health and economic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. 



While the ministers welcomed the IMF and World Bank’s call for
official bilateral creditors to “provide breathing space” to African countries,
the consortium believes that “such relief should be extended to countries
across the region and by other creditors during this exceptional period”. 



A comprehensive $100bn support package for Africa will be
formalised for discussion and presentation at the World Bank and IMF’s
stakeholders’ initiatives on April 15.



For the public sector, disbursements will be utilised for the
servicing of public sector debt and interest payments, including on sovereign
bonds, in order to create “immediate fiscal space and liquidity” for
governments to focus their attention on domestic fiscal stimulus needs amid the
crisis. 



The consortium proposes that the $44bn disbursement be pooled into
a global special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be used for external debt service
“for effective management purposes till economic recovery takes hold and
agreement can be reached with creditors”. The ministers stressed that this
measure would guard against default by countries. 



The ministers requested the IMF to raise Special Drawing Rights
(SDRs) availability over the next two to three years. The consortium believes
that it would service the debt relief SPV facility and provide crucial
liquidity support.



Ethiopia has already rescheduled debt servicing agreements with
“some major creditors”, which will alleviate hard currency liquidity demands.
By September 2019, public external debt stock stood at $26.8bn, or half of
total outstanding public debt. 



Public external debt comprised a 60:40 split between central
government and state-owned enterprises, according to official records. 



Public external debt servicing costs amounted to $548.4m during Q1
FY 2019/20 (the fiscal year commences on July 8), of which $457.2m was due to
SOE debt servicing. 



Ethiopia has been among the most vocal of African nations to
request debt waivers or debt relief – while African finance ministers called
for a $100bn stimulus package, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged G20 members to
provide $150bn under a proposed three-point action plan. The disbursal should
take the form of supplementary budgetary support, debt relief, and private
sector financing, according to the proposal. 



The prime minister furthermore urged G20 nations to support the
World Health Organisation (WHO) and Africa Centres for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) in strengthening public health delivery and emergency
preparedness.



Cognisant of the fragility of the private sector, especially as
small- and medium-sized enterprises account for over 70% of the private sector
in Africa, the consortium stressed that liquidity relief should be extended in
particular to service and tourism sectors. 



African finance ministers requested support from the G20, EU, and
all Development Finance institutions to support a proposal aimed at the
refinancing, rescheduling, and implementation of guarantee schemes and
liquidity facilities for the private sector. 



In particular, African airline companies require preservation and
protection “given their significant contribution to the GDP of Africa”.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to 80 destinations in light of the
pandemic. 



Demand for local flights, which are ongoing, dropped by at least
50% already. The airline estimates that it will lose at least $190m due to the
pandemic. 



The Ethiopian government has ordered the central bank to release
Etb15bn ($460m) to private banks as it ramped up its fight against the economic
spillover effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The liquidity injection will enable
the banking sector to extend debt relief and additional loan facilities to
customers. 



This came in addition to instructions to avail foreign currency to
importers, with priority given to importers of essential goods or the
manufacturing of essential goods. 



In March, the World Bank granted a $500m grant and loan facility
(split evenly) to Ethiopia in support of its reform programme. 



The prime minister voiced his gratitude to “the generosity of the
Ethiopian people” as local stakeholders contributed generously to the National
Resource Mobilisation Committee initiative.



NKC African Economics’ preliminary GDP forecast suggests that
Ethiopia will be hit particularly hard by coronavirus-related disruptions. 



Absent comprehensive external support, a sharp slump in private
sector demand and investment momentum threatens an unprecedented plunge in
economic growth this year to 1.1% – down from a pre-virus forecast of 7.1%. 



Crucially, the pandemic threatens to disrupt progress made under
the reform agenda towards policy overhaul, broad-based privatisation of state
assets, financial liberalisation, and the launch of a domestic bourse. 



An uncomfortable reliance on grant relief amid strained domestic
fiscal capacity threatens to bloom into full-blown crisis in the absence of
comprehensive external financial support.

Lion_of_Judah,_Addis_Ababa,_Ethiopia

Op-Ed: Ethiopia – Abiy leads African appeal for relief actions

Content supplied by <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/">Forex Brokers SA</a>



Financial Markets around the world and across Africa are currently highly volatile due to the effect of Coronavirus pandemic and oil price war. 



Currencies, Oil
&amp; Stocks have all been hard hit and many major companies on Wall Street,
European Indices &amp; Emerging Economies indices &amp; elsewhere including in
Africa including JSE have lost 30-60% of their value, currency pairs of major
countries &amp; emerging economies have all been affected making them highly
volatile &amp; unpredictable. 



Markets are being driven by human sentiment – fear more than ever. Fear emerging from uncertainty if the markets &amp; economies could recover soon enough has made investors sell off otherwise considered strong assets &amp; stocks.



In Africa, South Africa’s JSE 40 has lost R4.5 trillion Rand of its market cap – with most of the top 40 stocks losing almost 30% since the start of the year till mid-March 2020. 



Like many other countries, SA went on lockdown for 21 days starting on 27th March 2020, and SA economy outlook has been downgraded by Moody’s on 27 March &#8211; <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/2020/03/30/south-africas-rand-crashes-to-its-lowest-ever-after-moodys-pulls-the-plug/">sparking more fears of the selloff on South African Rand (ZAR)</a>, which is at its all-time low.



The Nigerian economy has also been badly affected by the crisis &#8211; with Naira trading at over N500 against USD on the futures market. Most stocks on Nigeria’s NSE All-share index have fallen by close to 30% from the year’s high.



Right now, it&#8217;s important as an investor to step back &amp; control your fears amid this crisis and don’t let fear cloud your investing judgment. And look at market fundamentals, long term outlook among other factors.



What you should do?



Look at underlying factors like &#8211; financials,
risks &amp; performance:



Don’t base your decision on short term financial reports, news or based on fear, feeling or hunch. 



Look at overall
outlook &amp; factors like – risks involved, long term returns etc.



As an equity
investor &#8211; Check the company’s past financials
&amp; performance and overall outlook of the industry for the next few years. 



Review
Historic Performance of Company &amp; Sector &#8211; See
if the company has been performing well over the past 5-10 years and offering
good dividends, EPS (Earnings per share).



See if the sector is core &amp; strong &#8211; For example &#8211; sectors like Financial Services, Food &amp; Agriculture and Telecom form a core part of any economy &amp; they are expected to stay strong in the long run. 



Ask Questions &#8211; Will the sector in which the company operates, perform well in the future? Has the sector performed well in the past? Does the sector have strong fundamentals? Is the company run properly with sound management?



If the company that
you are invested in has some edge like &#8211; strong brand or innovative product/technology
or strong backing that will make it stand out even when the sector is
underperforming or even going down. 



Like – Company might have diversified interests in different sectors, or they have strong credible backing like – Government-backed firms, or they are behind some promising or revolutionary technology – like AI or Pharma, etc. Anything that will make it stand strong in tough situations.



Considering current poor economic conditions &amp; outlook – it’s important to look at if the effect on stock price is temporary &#8211; does the company have strong financials &amp; track record that will help it come back after this slowdown. How soon that stock is expected to come back? Many strong global companies with a proven track record have shown to bounce back even stronger after slowdown or recession-like – Microsoft, Amazon &amp; Bank of America. &nbsp;



Look deeply into
financials &amp; performance and don’t hurry your decision.



As a
commodity investor &#8211; 



Commodity prices like that of Oil &amp; Gold are dependent on demand &amp; supply. Investors need to study the fundamentals of the underlying commodity and only then they should invest &amp; don’t invest purely to make quick returns or based on feelings or emotions.



Gold is often considered
to be safe-haven by most investors during market uncertainty. Gold prices have
shown uptrend since 2008. And it has retained most of its value even during ups
&amp; downs. But even then, it can be risky for many investors.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;



While Oil trading is mostly done by companies &amp; funds, some individual speculators also participate. Oil prices have a very volatile history suggesting it is a very risky investment. Investors need to be cautious &amp; calculate risks before investing in Oil and use risk hedging &amp; risk management.



Oil prices normally fall when there is excessive output and demand is low. Like now – when the travel sector is affected by travel bans &amp; automobile sector is cutting back on production amid a drop in demand due to coronavirus. Oil has seen a huge drop in demand and plus OPEC (oil-producing nations) are stuck in a price war, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html">making oil prices fall drastically</a> and making it highly volatile and unpredictable. Trading in oil has never been riskier. 



Many investors
around the world trade oil on major exchanges worldwide. In Africa too, Oil
futures &amp; options are traded on major exchanges like – JSE &amp; NSE. 



Demand for commodities like Oil will likely come back in the future with price correction &amp; increased demand when the situation improves, but no one can predict with certainty of when or if. Making it a very risky investment. 



Investors using
proper analysis of all underlying factors know this.



As a currency trader – Currency performance is directly linked to economic &amp; geopolitical indicators of the country. If you are trading a currency pair on futures &amp; options market at JSE or with any <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/">South Africa based regulated forex broker</a> &#8211; then check for the underlying overall economic outlook of the country with a long-term perspective. 



While most speculation/trading on currencies is done on an intraday basis. It is best practice to maintain your position based on long term outlook &amp; strong technical &amp; fundamentals of the economy. 



For example – During uncertain times, US Dollar becomes safe haven for most investors, so currencies of emerging economies like South Africa, Brazil, etc. would likely lose due to risk aversion. So, it is best to base your decision based on long term fundamentals.



Also, another factor to take into note is the overall economy &amp; exports of the countries. The currencies of commodity-based economies have been especially hard hit. Forex: Nigerian Naira has been devalued by CBN due to the 2020’s oil crisis. In the past as well the Naira was affected in 2017 due to the oil price drop. 



Moreover, use proper risk &amp; money management and don’t let emotions overtake your judgment.



Think long term &amp; stick to your
investment plan



Think about your long term plan while investing in any asset class. In short or intra-day, you will likely see a lot of up &amp; down movements. 



But if you look at
the bigger chart- then the asset may actually be in a trending market. So it is
really essential to get the bigger view &#8211; research through the fundamental
factors and base your investment decisions likewise.



Once you have made
the investment decision based on your research – then stick to it unless there
is something really bad that conflicts your original long-term analysis.



What you shouldn’t do? 



Try to pick the top or bottom&nbsp; 



Many investors who are looking to make a profit from this situation or any rising/falling market make this mistake. They obsess about entering or exiting the market at the right price – the highest or lowest price. 



It is almost impossible for anyone (even the seasoned investors) to predict every market move &#8211; even with the right analysis tools &amp; news. Now, almost every investor has access to the same information &amp; technical analysis &#8211; so it wouldn’t give any extra edge to an investor. 



Plus, even if one could perfectly predict one move, he would have to time the move twice to get in &amp; out of the market at the right price. Which is near impossible to get correct all the time.



Don’t try to catch
every move of the market &#8211; tops &amp; bottoms and rely on fundamentals &amp;
think long term.



Get Emotional &amp; lose control of the situation



It&#8217;s very important to control your emotions during market volatility, and not panic. It is easier to get carried away by the flood of bad news, and the erratic market movements. 



Market ups &amp; downs are a normal things in the short term. It&#8217;s important to stick with your long-term investment strategy &amp; not let emotions change it. 



Don’t panic if the market is going against you in the short term. Think about the bigger picture – based on your strategy, that made you enter the market position in the first place. 



Use too much margin or leverage



This Is the most
common mistake that new traders make when trading currencies or derivatives or
commodities. 



Many CFD brokers offer <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/forex-trading/">forex trading</a> with a very high margin, sometimes it is even as high as 2000:1 leverage at some brokers. Also, forex &amp; equity investors trading in the JSE derivatives market has the option to use <a href="https://www.jse.co.za/services/post-trade-services/risk-management/calculators">margin while trading</a> &#8211; which puts them at risk.



Using too much
leverage to increase your position size also increases your exposure &amp;
risk. And this can multiply your losses, often higher than your original
capital. 



So, it is really important to avoid margin trading at all times, or use the leverage of no more than 1:5 if you really must.



Obsess too much with your current market position 



Many new investors
have a habit of looking at their portfolio again &amp; again &#8211; especially when
the market is going against them. This often results in panic &amp; wrong
decisions. 



Long term investors
shouldn’t obsess too much over the current market situation as it does not help.
If you are investing in an asset with a long-term view – then it is best to not
look too often at your portfolio. 



Think about – why you decided to invest in that asset &amp; what changed overtime that the asset is no longer investable. Ex: If you invested in company A – that has strong fundamentals, good future projects, growth perspective &amp; solid growth over many years, then think would the current situation affect the company in the longer term. If not – then stick to your plan &amp; don’t let every short-term market movement affect your decision.

Stock market exchange graph price drop with red numbers investment lose of business financial digital background – Candle stick charts stock crash crisis fall risk decreasing arrow down trend sell

Op Ed: Why you shouldn’t make your investment decision based on panic during market volatility?

By Dr Victor Oladokun, outgoing Director of Communication &amp; External Relations at the African Development Bank Group



Why
Africa Urgently Needs an Ubuntu Plan



Africa urgently needs a globally
coordinated Ubuntu Plan in response to COVID-19, a fiscal stimulus that
recognises our shared and connected humanity, as we find ourselves in the midst
of an unprecedented crisis.



The
world&#8217;s largest cities are eerily silent. One virus has disrupted the whole
world in a manner never seen before in history.



COVID-19,
a term that did not exist in our vocabulary a couple of months ago, has brought
virtually everything to a grinding halt. It&#8217;s a surreal almost cinematic scene.
Except that we are all living through it.&nbsp;




With governments balancing economies and
the welfare of their citizens, entire industries and institutional systems find
themselves fighting for survival in the midst of mandatory lockdowns. Food
supply chains, transportation networks, educational systems, governance and
judicial systems are either strained or barely functioning with medical
services being the worst hit.



Unlike
any other pandemic, COVID-19 will alter the way we live, work, and
socialise.&nbsp; The financial costs and the
economic devastation are already of epic proportions. This is why Africa in
particular urgently needs an Ubuntu Plan. A globally coordinated fiscal
stimulus plan that recognises our shared and connected humanity. 



The
case for an Ubuntu Plan



This
past week, America passed a 2 trillion Dollar stimulus package that will keep
markets operational, support Americans out of work, and help reduce Federal
Reserve lending rates. It is the largest bailout in the history of the United
States. European economies likewise have announced stimulus measures in excess
of 1 trillion Euros. Chinese factories are ramping up again, backed by a $344
billion stimulus package.



In
contrast, Africa&#8217;s economies are already buckling. Global demand for oil and
gas and commodity products &#8211; the mainstays of Africa&#8217;s leading economies &#8211; has
stalled. Revenues which were already overextended have dried up and small,
medium, and large enterprises are at risk of total collapse.



Last
Thursday, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
estimated that the pandemic could reduce the growth of the region&#8217;s gross
domestic product (GDP) from 3.2% to 1.8% in 2020. On 27th March, The Secretary
General of the UN Antonio Guterres said: “Africa is a continent with very
little capacity to respond and I am extremely worried that in those situations,
we might have millions of cases with millions of people dying”.



Lockdowns
are not equal



Even
though the United States, Europe and many parts of Asia are better suited
economically and infrastructurally to a lockdown, they are struggling to cope
with the burden of this sudden pandemic. A situation that will likely will be
worsened by the duration and unpredictability of the pandemic.



If
these societies are struggling, the impact on Africa is best imagined.



Prior
to the crisis, 41% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population lived on less than $1.90
a day which is very little to survive on. Seven out of ten persons (70%) in
Africa are in vulnerable and precarious forms of informal employment eking
their living on a daily basis. Lockdown, homeworking and teleconferencing is
therefore not an option. Family support systems from blue and white-collar
workers and the diaspora, are themselves under threat. Job losses will&nbsp; strain these critical informal support
systems to breaking points.



 In Africa, formal social safety nets rarely exist. Therefore, stockpiling food items for extended periods of isolation is out of consideration. Linked with this, Africa requires vast food supplies to meet the needs of the continent&#8217;s poorest who can barely afford a decent mmeal. 



Recent
cyclones, Kenneth and Idai, and a&nbsp;
plague of locusts, have already put considerable pressure on&nbsp; immediate food supplies for the continent.



Which
is why an Ubuntu Plan is now critical in order to cushion the harsh
social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Such a plan
would include a fiscal stimulus package, the development of critical
infrastructure and support for the continent&#8217;s most vulnerable populations. 



The
fact is that in the 21st century, clean water supplies and access to
electricity are the stuff of dreams for millions of Africans. Globally, almost
800 million people are without access to clean water. Of these, 40% live in
sub-Saharan Africa.&nbsp; The simple act of
hand washing which the pandemic requires for prevention is still not possible
for millions. Linked with this, less than 58% of Africa&#8217;s population has access
to modern healthcare facilities. 



A
race against time



Africa
and its partners have already been striving hard to tackle the challenge of
eradicating poverty with measures such as the UN’s Sustainable Development
Goals, and the African Development Bank&#8217;s High5 strategy. 



The
COVID-19 pandemic however shines the spotlight on Africa’s&nbsp; poor healthcare delivery systems and
facilities and its vast challenges. Africa has one of the highest population
densities in the world. For people living in tens of thousands of informal
settlements, the idea of social distancing is inconceivable. Millions of
vulnerable low-income people live in cramped communal houses and rooms and
in&nbsp; areas that lack basic amenities,
especially water and sanitation. 



In
the short term, to effectively combat COVID-19, we urgently need self-testing
kits, personal protective equipment (PPEs), makeshift living spaces and
hospitals, recovery units and inexpensive easy-to-operate ventilators. 



The
World Health Organisation (WHO) has already issued a ten-point strategy that
calls for the creation of corridors on the continent to facilitate emergency
deployments and material shipments.&nbsp; The
plan also calls on governments and the private sector to help increase
supplies, medical equipment and care, and to strengthen surveillance and public
awareness, in order to prevent&nbsp;
continent-wide community transmission.



In
the short window available, global cooperation is imperative.



&nbsp;The African Union&#8217;s Vision Agenda 2063 and
action plan states among other things, that “We are part of the global drive
through the United Nations and other multilateral organisations to find
multi-lateral approaches to humanity’s most pressing concerns including human
security and peace, the eradication of poverty, hunger and disease &#8230;”&nbsp; 



Rethinking
the future



In
the mid to long term, we must urgently rethink social life, urban and rural
planning and our budgetary priorities, if life is to be preserved. We must&nbsp; decongest informal settlements rapidly and in
their place&nbsp; develop&nbsp; affordable housing that is suitable for
isolation&nbsp; and quarantine, in the event
of future pandemics.



There
is no better time for a globally coordinated Ubuntu Plan. To stop the
global spread of COVID-19 and its global devastation, it must be stopped in
Africa. The world must pay attention and lend a helping hand by strengthening
global cooperation, now more than ever before.&nbsp;




Ubuntu
&#8211; The preservation of human dignity, health, lives and wellbeing, demands
nothing less.

Victor

Op-Ed: Victor Oladokun on why Africa urgently needs an Ubuntu Plan

By Graham Viljoen, Nina Keyser, Shirleen Ritchie, Yashika
Govind, Lumen Moolman and Bianca de Klerk from Webber Wentzel



The address by President Cyril
Ramaphosa on Monday, 23 March 2020, set out certain fiscal relief measures to help
small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
and vulnerable firms mitigate cash flow constraints as a consequence of the COVID-19
outbreak. Certain of these measures will be implemented through the tax system
and aim to use the tax system as a means of easing the liquidity constraints
currently faced by businesses. Specific detail on these measures will be published
by National Treasury in the coming days.&nbsp;
We provide a summary of the tax proposals set out in the address by the
President below.



Support for businesses:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Pay as you earn</li></ul>



SMEs with a turnover of less than ZAR50&nbsp;million‑



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>may defer 20% of their prospective pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) liabilities over the next four months; and </li><li>may defer a portion of their provisional corporate income tax payments without penalties or interest over the next six months.  </li></ul>



The deferral of provisional tax
payments should apply to the first and second provisional tax payments as well
as potentially the third top-up payment. &nbsp;



In order to qualify for these
deferrals, the enterprise must be fully tax compliant. &nbsp;Enterprises can check their tax compliance status
via SARS eFiling. &nbsp;We look forward to
additional clarity around whether an application will need to be submitted to
SARS or whether the relief applies automatically.



Support for employers and employees:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Employee Tax Incentive</li></ul>



Government has proposed an additional
tax subsidy in the amount of up to ZAR500 per month for the next four months
per qualifying employee in the private sector.&nbsp;




The employment tax incentive (ETI) is
paid to employers who employ qualifying employees (including the youth) and is
considered a labour cost sharing mechanism between government and the private
sector to incentivise employment.&nbsp; The
existing ETI is aimed at supporting qualifying employees who earn below ZAR6&nbsp;500
per month on a sliding scale based on salary where the employer is registered for
Employees Tax.&nbsp; 



The employer is entitled to reduce the
total amount of its PAYE liability by setting off the ETI amount calculated in
respect of that month.&nbsp; Where there is no
PAYE to set off against the ETI amount, the employer will be entitled to a
reimbursement of the total ETI amount available as at the end of each PAYE
reconciliation period.



A further proposal aims at reducing the
reimbursement period to a monthly period.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Compensation Fund</li></ul>



Any employee who falls ill pursuant to exposure
to Covid-19 at work will be entitled to claim from the Compensation Fund.&nbsp; Broadly speaking, claimants are required to
include such compensation in their gross income for tax purposes.&nbsp; The amount is, however, exempt from normal tax
in accordance with section 10(1)(gB) of the Income Tax Act. 



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>UIF – Temporary Employee Relief Scheme</li></ul>



Government proposes utilising the
Temporary Employee Relief Scheme (TERS)
to enable companies to pay employees and avoid retrenchments.&nbsp; TERS was launched in December 2019 and is
aimed at assisting businesses who face temporary constraints that will result
in retrenchments.&nbsp; The allowance will be
in the form of a wage payment directly to employees. 



This should support SMEs and other
vulnerable firms who are faced with a loss of income to provide support to
workers. &nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>UIF and SDL</li></ul>



Government is investigating a reduction
in employer and employee contributions to the Unemployment Insurance Fund and a
reduction in Skills Development Levies. 



The proposal entails using actuarial
reserves in the Unemployment Insurance Fund to support workers of SMEs and
vulnerable firms who are faced with loss of income and whose employers cannot
provide support.&nbsp; 



The relief outlined by the President to aid SMEs and vulnerable firms and employees during this time is welcomed. We will provide an update as more detail becomes available.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Tax relief proposed by the President – image LR

Covid-19: Tax relief proposed by the President

NKC African Economics expects the coronavirus-related knock to economic
growth in Africa’s three largest economies alone to shave off 1 ppt from the
continent’s GDP growth this year, from 3.8% to 2.8%. 



Preliminary estimates point towards the weakest continental growth
since the early 1990s.



The continent’s three largest economies, South Africa, Nigeria and
Egypt – together accounting for just under 60% of African GDP – will see a
significant weakening in economic growth this year. 



This slowdown in economic activity will permeate through the
continent as these countries are salient drivers behind economic growth in
their respective regions.&nbsp; 



In addition to the indirect effects stemming from weakness in the
largest economies, other African nations will also have to deal with a much
more volatile external economic environment. 



The collapse in tourism will weigh on economic growth in many
countries (particularly the island nations, Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia), while
a reduction in both export demand and commodity prices will weaken fundamentals
in Africa’s more export-oriented economies (most notably the oil producing
nations).&nbsp; 



The escalation in the Covid-19 outbreak in Africa implies there is
a lot more at stake than foregone economic production. 



Most African countries will not be able to effectively implement
the severe restrictions on movement that we have seen globally. The
impracticality of implementing widespread self-quarantine in shantytowns or
informal settlements means that this will not be an option. Mismanagement of
the situation could lead to human costs far exceeding economic losses.



Tourism is a key forex generator and employment creator across the
continent. Severe travel restrictions, border closures and lockdowns in key
source markets will result in a collapse in tourism during the first half of
the year, at least. 



Domestic and intra-Africa tourism have been key drivers behind
growth in overall tourism in recent years, but as more Covid-19 cases are
confirmed on the continent we will see an increase in domestic travel
restrictions and regional border closures. 



The island nations will be hardest hit, but the mainland will feel
the effects in the North (particularly in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt), South
(Namibia, Botswana), East (Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya) and West (Côte d’Ivoire,
The Gambia, Cameroon). 



Low barriers to entry have led to tourism becoming a key source of
employment. The island nations in particular are dependent on tourism to
generate employment, most notably the Seychelles (where tourism accounts for
around 44% of formal employment), Cape Verde (39%) and Mauritius (19%). 



Tourism has also become a salient job creator on the African
mainland, and a slump in the sector could result in rapid job losses given the prevalence
of micro- and small-sized enterprises operating in the sector.&nbsp; 



The slowdown in global economic activity will translate into a
reduction in demand, while lower commodity prices will compound this negative
effect on exports. 



Africa’s energy exporters will struggle to come to terms with a
much more hostile external environment. Countries such as Nigeria, Angola and
Gabon are highly dependent on oil exports not only to generate forex but also
to fund government spending. 



Countries including Namibia, Zambia, Botswana and Mozambique are
dependent on mineral exports for the same reasons. 



Generally speaking, countries that have a GDP structure orientated
towards exports will feel the pain of a weaker external environment.



Lower international energy prices will have a detrimental impact
on the continent’s oil exporters, but many other countries stand to benefit. 



A reduction in the oil imports bill will have a favourable impact
on external balances while also containing consumer price inflation. Lower
inflation will support consumer spending at a time when a weak external
environment increases the importance of domestic consumption in driving overall
economic growth.&nbsp; 



The South African economy had already entered 2020 on a very
fragile footing before the dramatic external developments related to the
Covid-19 pandemic. NKC forecasts a 5% real GDP contraction this year. Domestic
policy uncertainty and supply-side constraints have now been accompanied by a
deterioration in global business sentiment and a drop in demand for South
African goods, all weighing on the country’s economic recovery prospects. 



In addition, the three-week long nationwide lockdown, which
commenced on March 27, will result in a collapse in consumer spending. The
outlook could deteriorate further if the lockdown is extended.&nbsp; 



The coronavirus has not as yet, as far as we know, taken
significant hold in Nigeria. However, the weaker external environment and more
specifically, the recent collapse in international oil prices, will have a
marked impact on the economy’s performance this year.



Lower oil prices will result in tighter FX liquidity, rising
inflation, falling investment, lower fiscal expenditure and easing consumption
growth. 



As a result, NKC has revised its growth projection sharply lower
to 1.2% this year, with risks still firmly stacked to the downside. 



A more severe domestic outbreak of Covid-19 would cause
significant disruption to daily economic activity, particularly when
considering the population density in the country’s biggest cities. 



Despite the Egyptian government’s efforts, the number of confirmed
Covid-19 cases continues to rise considerably. 



The president has urged all citizens to stay at home for a two-week
period and a night-time curfew has been declared, while the possibility of a
formal lockdown in some regions is also circulating in local media. 



The fiscal deficit is set to widen significantly over fiscal year
(FY) 2019/20 and FY 2020/21 following the announcement of a stimulus and
bail-out package to the value of approximately E£100bn. 



Government revenues already came in far below budget during the
first half of FY 2019/20 and will take a massive knock during the second half
of the fiscal year, which ends in June. 



Lower economic growth reflects weaker consumption, investment, and
exports. 



The recently announced fiscal stimulus measures, however, should
prevent a collapse in domestic demand. 



The economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic will be
considerable, but the human costs will be higher yet. 



As of end March South Africa remains the hardest-hit African
country from a confirmed-case perspective and the expected economic hardship
reflects this. 



However, South Africa is also arguably the best-placed country on
the continent to deal with the pandemic. While it does have a large
immuno-compromised population due to its struggles with HIV, the country might
be able to leverage its sophisticated private healthcare sector to supplement
inadequate public services. 



Most other African nations will not have this benefit. 



Confirmed Covid-19 cases will undoubtedly increase across the
continent in coming weeks, and timely and effective government responses will
be required to ensure that this does not become another African tragedy.



Jacques Nel – Head of Africa Macro



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

Op-Ed: African giants to stumble due to Covid-19 pandemic

By: Alexander Knieps



Are you struggling with the impact of Covid -9? Are you scared of going out of business? Is the uncertainty killing you?



Don&#8217;t worry, you are not alone &#8211; we have the same thoughts, but we will try to help (see our amazing offer below that will help). In German, there is a saying, &#8220;Geteiltes Leid, ist halbes Leid.&#8221; Translated it means something like this &#8211; a trouble shared, is a trouble halved. I am personally living by the motto &#8220;What I can&#8217;t control, I am not stressing about.&#8221;So what can we control?  



We as Printulu are shutting down production, as requested by the President, from the 26th of March until the 16th of April. 



It hurts all of us, but it is required in order to protect the weakest of society, ironically while affecting the poorest of society the most. Given this unprecedented situation, maybe comparable to the 1929 market crash, we urge all of our clients to make the most out of this lockdown.



We believe difficult times bear the biggest opportunities:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>1890: General Electric was founded during a recession.</li><li>1975: Microsoft was founded during stagflation in the US.</li><li>2009: Dropbox was founded during the last financial crisis.</li></ul>



What does this mean for us? The lockdown is the opportunity to work on what we can influence!



We are evaluating all angles to costs, ensure liquidity while investing in our team and our brand. You should do this, too. Not later, not in 3 weeks. Right now. We do not know how long the situation is actually going to last. 



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote> a trouble shared, is a trouble halved <cite> Alexander Knieps </cite></blockquote></figure>



Therefore, we are taking the following measures in order to protect our staff and to avoid any layoffs during these times:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cut fixed costs</h2>



Rent:&nbsp;Our lease contract ended in December. From then on we were automatically on a month-to-month contract. As we do not know how long the pandemic will last, we will cancel our lease. Everyone is working from home in any case. We have spoken to other tenants in the building &#8211; they are facing similar difficulties. As our landlord really wants to keep us, they are now trying to stop their bond payment to the bank and come to the party. We will see how this plays out, but we need to work on our fixed costs. Have a chat with your landlord &#8211; they know what you are going through.



IT costs:&nbsp;We have been working on our platform for 3 years, releasing updated features every week. Sometimes on the frontend, but mostly on the back-end to automate processes or better track orders in production. Right now we have stripped our projects down to the bare minimum. IT is expensive and mostly pays off in the long run. Right now, it is a time to balance the long-term and short-term.&nbsp; &nbsp;



Other costs:&nbsp;I spent the last 24 hours going through our bank statements, line by line, to evaluate which costs can be cut. You will be surprised what you will find. I have cut down on subscriptions to help automate marketing projects because right now we have the hours to do work manually. In addition, we canceled a subscription for streamlining our hiring process &#8211; it is very clear, we cannot hire right now. Times are tough&#8230;



Salaries/team:&nbsp;We recommend to let everyone work from home (if possible). If someone is not able to work from home we encourage them to help everyone in this situation as much as possible. Consider short-time and only if the lockdown continues for too long and it is inevitable, start retrenching people. If you have to retrench, try to base it off of performance and not by the length of employment. This is important for the culture of your company.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ensure short-term liquidity</h2>



Grants:&nbsp;Up until now, it is not clear to me what exactly the South African government is offering to help to mitigate the effect on small businesses. However, we really recommend that you apply via&nbsp;<a href="http://www.smmesa.gov.za/">http://www.smmesa.gov.za/</a>



Loans:&nbsp;If you have a loan, speak to your bank to get a repayment holiday. Most of them have already implemented it. In addition, speak to the bank for more liquidity. It is not going to be easy, but necessary. Maybe not for the next 3 weeks, but what if it takes longer?



Investors:&nbsp;Speak to potential investors or friends (also called &#8220;Friends, Family and Fools&#8221;) to provide you with a loan or an equity investment in order to bridge a short-term liquidity gap. Prefer raising debt rather than equity. If you cannot come to an agreement, use a so-called safe note agreement. We have made use of this in the past and are also speaking to our investors to provide a financing bridge in case this situation goes on for 3 or even 6 months.



Suppliers:&nbsp;Speak to your suppliers and revisit payment terms. Unfortunately, your suppliers will have many clients asking for an extension. In order to not harm the relationship and be able to act quickly after the lockdown, we really recommend working collaboratively with your suppliers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest in your team</h2>



Training:&nbsp;If you have a team, now is the time to upskill them and make your team more robust to any external shocks. Is there anything you always wanted to delegate, but never found the time? If you do not have a team, make sure you upskill yourself. Read a book about cost cutting, marketing, leadership. Use the lockdown time and don&#8217;t waste it on Netflix. Rather invest in courses from websites such as&nbsp;Udemy&nbsp;or&nbsp;GO1&nbsp;to provide courses for your team (or yourself)! &nbsp;



Analysis / clean-ups:&nbsp;Do you need to follow up on some payments? Is your accounting not 100% up to date? Is there an analysis you always wanted to do, but did not get the time? Now is the time. Get it done and make every minute count.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest in your brand</h2>



Contact clients:&nbsp;Make sure you contact your key clients and help them survive this unprecedented situation. Help now and have a loyal client forever. With this email I am trying to make a small contribution in trying to help businesses.



Marketing initiatives:&nbsp;Prepare all your marketing initiatives for the year. Get the designs ready, get the ad-copy right and get the ball rolling so that you are moving strongly when the lockdown is over. Marketing is a variable cost &#8211; not a fixed cost adding to your underlying risk. Secure liquidity and invest the rest in your brand and product.



<a href="https://www.printulu.co.za/">Printulu </a>is an online printing firm in South Africa. Alexander Knieps is their CEO.

Stacks of printed paper at printing press

How one SME is handling the lockdown in South Africa

By the Banking Association South Africa 



South African banks strongly support the decisive leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government in the effort to protect lives and slow the spread of Covid-19. Banks play a vital role in the economy and accept that as a designated essential service it is their duty to remain operational and accessible, and to support their customers and ensure their safety &#8211; alongside that of our staff &#8211; during these challenging times for all South Africans. For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> This was the focus of discussion when the Board of the Banking Association South Africa (BASA) met on 25 March to consider the industry’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and the lock-down announced by President Ramaphosa. At the request of BASA, the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition published Government Gazette Notice 11058, which allowed banks to have a collective discussion on how to strengthen their response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Banks have been declared an essential service during the 21-day lockdown in terms of the regulations issued to give effect to the declaration of a State of National Disaster. BASA members have agreed to do all in their power, while operating within the relevant regulatory frameworks, to responsibly support their customers and preserve the safety and soundness of our financial system. • All essential banking services will remain open during the lockdown to ensure clients can continue to access financial services. All call centres, ATMs and point of sale (POS) devices will be operational. • Banks will waive Saswitch penalty fees. Customers can use any ATM and only pay the usual fees charged by their bank. Customers will be notified once this comes into operation. Teams are working on it as a priority. • Customers are encouraged to transact at ATMs and from their homes – by internet and with smartphone applications &#8211; wherever possible, and only visit branches when absolutely necessary. • Banks will keep open as many branches as necessary. Branches may have less staff than usual and customers are asked to be patient and engage in a manner that protects the health and safety of staff and other customers. Staff and customers are advised to practice social distancing in branches. • All bank staff performing non-essential services and those who can work from home have been allowed and enabled to do so. The number of staff who will have to work in offices, call centres, data centres and branches will be kept to the minimum and all World Health Organisation (WHO) protocols will be observed. The banking industry reaffirms its commitment to assist its customers in these difficult times and is working with regulators and government to maintain the strength and stability of the financial sector. We welcome the announcement by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) of monetary policy interventions which will assist customers, while maintaining the soundness of the financial sector. Banks will work within current regulations to assist customers. BASA will have ongoing discussions with the National Treasury and the SARB, among others, to evaluate the possible further relaxation of regulations, if necessary. We strongly encourage all customers to continue to meet their banking and financial services obligations wherever possible. Customers in good standing &#8211; those that were up to date with commitments and have historically conducted their relationship with banks responsibly &#8211; who experience financial challenges as a result of Covid-19, should contact their banks who will, on a case-by-case basis, assist with appropriate solutions. These solutions could include suitable payment deferrals, the restructuring of debt, the provision of small and medium enterprise (SME) bridging finance and liaising with government and others who are providing additional support mechanisms. Particular attention will be given to those sectors likely to be most vulnerable in the current circumstances. Banks are investigating ways to assist customers on an industry and collaborative basis wherever possible. The Board of BASA would like to express its gratitude to the staff of all the banks who will continue serving the public during this very trying period. You are part of the national effort our President has called for to defeat this virus.

SA’s banks reveal plans for lockdown

By John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK



My final social engagement a couple of weeks ago was a trip to the theatre to see Samuel Beckett’s Endgame, a play in which the characters are trapped in a box-like room to contemplate a fate that (in true Beckett style) never materialises. Their confinement appears to be the result of some sort of apocalyptic event. For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a> Little did I think that two weeks later I would be similarly confined to my home, with the streets outside eerily devoid of the usual tidal flows of humanity. These are extraordinary times, and trying to make sense of them in terms of financial market analysis is proving to be a challenge. I am taking a three-pronged approach to the situation.



The medical situation



The first thing we need to monitor is the medical situation. It has become clearer in the last week that, from a policy perspective, saving lives takes precedence over economic activity. Thus we are experiencing ever more draconian measures aimed at “social distancing”. I explained a few weeks ago that the pattern of epidemics tends to follow an “S-curve”. One sees a relatively slow initial build-up of cases, which then accelerates rapidly before flattening out again as counter-measures take effect. We can already see this pattern playing out if we follow the virus from its beginnings in China. Containment measures in China itself mean that the province of Wuhan has not reported any new cases in the last four days. Indeed the majority of new cases in China appear to have been brought back into the country be returning travelers. This, and similar shaped curves in places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, provides some comfort that containment is a viable strategy.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the rest of the world is several weeks behind China in terms of the spread of the virus and also in taking measures to contain it. Thus we have, in all probability, yet to experience the steepest part of the curve here in the UK; certainly so in the world’s most important economy, the United States. The same will be true of many other countries. This means that the worst is yet to come in terms of reported new cases and deaths. To exacerbate the situation, there remains much uncertainty about mortality rates, mainly because, owing to the lack of testing capacity, we have no idea how many people have actually had this virus. We are monitoring the daily data by country to watch for any signs of a deceleration in the infection rate. There will be some relief when that is seen in the core European countries, especially Italy. Developments in the US will also be key to restoring confidence. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired.</blockquote>



However, any return to what we might consider normal will not be immediate. We have already seen new clusters of infection in South Korea, for example. There is likely to be some system of “dynamic social distancing” that remains in place either until a vaccine is developed or until sufficient herd immunity has been acquired. This will continue to weigh on general economic activity for some time.&nbsp; 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.investec.com/content/dam/united-kingdom/staff/john-wyn-evans-quote-desk.jpg" alt="John Wyn-Evans"/><figcaption>John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy, Investec Wealth &amp; Investment UK</figcaption></figure>



&#8220;It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid.&#8221;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The financial system</h4>



The second area of focus is the financial system, which has definitely been creaking over the last couple of weeks. As we saw during the financial crisis, the world cannot cope without a functioning banking system, and central banks have thrown all their resources into ensuring that this does not seize up again. That’s not to say there have not been stressful moments. The overnight repurchase market has struggled to cope with the demand for dollar cash as both companies and banks hoard funds. Asset markets have seen days when it has been difficult, if not impossible, to sell anything at a remotely sensible price. On the more extreme days we have seen supposedly “safe” assets falling in value because they were the only things that could be sold in meaningful size to raise funds. Some of this was down to forced deleveraging by funds that manage portfolios based on the level of volatility. With the VIX Index hitting an all-time high last week, they had no choice but to reduce positions across the board. There is some evidence that the worst of that particular phase of selling pressure has now peaked, at least, but redemptions and margin calls will continue to weigh. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Then there has been governments’ response to the crisis. We have seen all sorts of extraordinary measures announced with commendable speed, ranging from payment deferrals to cheap loan facilities and cash handouts.</blockquote>



It is inevitable that fiscal deficits will rise sharply, but it is generally accepted that this is a price that has to be paid. What will be intriguing is to see the extent to which central banks and governments work together. Since the financial crisis, measures such as Quantitative Easing and zero interest rates, which were seen as temporary remedies, have become more permanent. It is possible that direct purchases of government debt by central banks will now become the norm. Once debt is “monetised” in such a fashion, it has major implications for how money itself is valued, which might well lead to very different types of portfolio construction in future.&nbsp; The key point to make, though, is that no measure will be deemed too extreme or too costly in the short term to keep the financial system functional and to ensure that the private sector is provided with some sort of safety net to compensate for the enforced lack of activity. I have deliberately not provided exact numbers because they are virtually meaningless and will also be subject to frequent revisions. Suffice to say that the words “whatever it takes” will be repeated often. There will be bumps in the road, as we saw last night is the US, where the Senate was unable to agree on a package of supportive measures. I can assure you that they will once they acknowledge just how bad the situation is, much as they did in 2008. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Economic growth and company earnings</h4>



The final pieces of the jigsaw are economic growth and company earnings, and here we are subject to the greatest uncertainty. Within the investment bank and independent forecaster communities there is something of a race to the bottom in terms of expectations, with every day bringing a new low. The speed of decline will be unprecedented. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2008 following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the US economy shrank by an annualised 8%. Goldman Sachs suggests a figure of -24% for the second quarter this year, while one member of the Federal Reserve Bank has ventured -50%. These figures were inconceivable just a few weeks ago. And although there will inevitably be a sharp rebound in activity, the trajectory of the recovery is hard to predict. It certainly feels that hopes for a “V” shaped recovery are too optimistic. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery.</blockquote>



From a company perspective, it is clear that earnings could, in aggregate, by wiped out for a quarter or longer, although there will be a huge gap between the haves and the have nots, one which investors are already anticipating to judge by the relative performance of different stocks and sectors. Our key principle has been to remain invested in companies that will at least be able to survive the downturn and thus benefit from the recovery. There will be a time to consider more risky situations, but definitely not yet.&nbsp; We often remind investors that dividends are the least volatile component of investment returns. That will be the case again, but the overall level of dividend payments is going to be significantly curtailed this year and potentially next as well. We have already seen dividend suspensions from companies such as Marks &amp; Spencer and Intercontinental Hotels Group, both viewed as being in decent financial shape prior to current events. But we remain far from despair. According to data from Goldman Sachs, the UK stock market trades at the 11th percentile of its price-to-book value since 1965 (and so has been more highly valued on this metric 89% of the time over the last fifty-five years). Unless we believe that the ability to generate a reasonable return on capital has been permanently impaired – and we don’t – then investors will able to take advantage of some long-term opportunities once we have some greater clarity on the short-term pain.

What does the COVID-19 end game look like for investors?

– By Neels Barendrecht, Chairman of Agility Holdings
and Director of Agility Risk Solutions, Singapore



In February I returned from a
Singapore business trip. COVID-19 had not yet been declared a pandemic at this
time, however in light of the global events unfolding I took the decision to
self-isolate for the safety of my colleagues, friends, community and to help
protect our country, which at that time had no confirmed cases. 



While some may have thought I
was being overly cautious, as subsequent events in South Africa and the recent
announcement of a national disaster have shown – this was certainly the right
and responsible thing to do. 



As a business leader, I feel
it is my duty to set an example to the rest of the business by diligently
following this process, showing respect for our fellow colleagues and citizens.
The basics of risk management dictate that we have to be mindful of the
potential consequences that wider exposure to this virus could have, and take
proactive measures to prevent this as far as possible. 



One of the most difficult
aspects of my decision to self-isolate at home was that my family who live with
me also needed to enter into these self-quarantine measures. Fortunately, my
family have been most supportive and understand why these measures are
necessary for the greater good. We are also enjoying spending some quality time
together for a change. 



Our Medical Director of
Agility Health, Dr Jacques Snyman,
points out that in my circumstances – which will no doubt be applicable to
others – self-isolation in its true sense is often not practical unless one
lives alone. My family’s possible exposure to any risk of COVID-19 that I could
have after travelling means that our self-imposed family quarantine would aim to keep
any possible risk associated with the virus “in the family”, and not expose
anyone else to possible infection. 



I have been asked whether
life in isolation is a lonely experience, and to what extent it has impacted my
ability to work. Surrounded by my nearest and dearest, who are isolated with
me, I am fortunate not to feel “cut off” and thanks to technology, I am mostly
as effective in my professional capacity as ever ­– if not more so in some
respects because I’m spending less time travelling and commuting, and more time
‘online’.



This said, we have had to
cancel a number of family events because we are not to leave the house under
any circumstances. We are learning to think differently about things we have
taken for granted, and I find myself performing risk analysis in my daily life
for simple things that we would have hardly spared a second thought for before
the advent of this novel coronavirus. 



I now find myself considering
whether the benefit balances the risk of ordering fast food for delivery, which
by this point in our local outbreak could potentially carry traces of the
highly contagious virus. I suspect I will be avoiding buffet tables for some
time to come. 



There is a silver lining to
be found amid the alarm surrounding the coronavirus, and this is that we are
all taking on more responsible behaviours that we should have embraced long
before the threat of COVID-19. 



Just as the threat of Day
Zero in the Western Cape made us far more careful about conserving water and
respecting this limited resource, the COVID-19 pandemic is giving us a
much-needed wake up call when it comes to the importance of hygiene and putting
in place contingency measures.



Proper hygiene will not only
help us in the current situation, it will help to reduce other infectious
illnesses that are all too widespread and also pose significant health risks –
particularly to immunocompromised individuals in our country. 



The behaviours that we will
need to fully embrace to contain the threat of COVID-19, and the agility we as
a society will need to develop in response to the unfolding situation, are
responsible behaviours that will hopefully stay with us far beyond this crisis.




These are things we should have been doing all along, and if COVID-19 provides the stimulus we need to start practising better hygiene, let us do our best to take these lessons to heart.

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