<blockquote>“In Liberia, a woman’s place is in the market, the church, the kitchen, or the bed. But not for one little girl,” Helene Cooper writes.</blockquote>
Cooper writes this as her first sentence in <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Madame-President/Helene-Cooper/9781451697353">her biography</a> of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who was born in 1938. She writes this to help readers outside the country understand how extraordinary it is that a Liberian woman became part of the governing inner circle. She had a successful career in the world of international finance, and then was sworn in as president of a country emerging from a civil war.
So much has changed in almost 80 years, and yet so much has remained the same. “Today,” teacher Boakai Kamara shared with me, “many children have to stay home to help their parents to farm, prepare for market, and things like that. They need help in the house so the children have to be there to help them. This makes me sad.” Mr. Kamara has a vision for what will change the lives of Liberian children, and the future of his country. It is simple and complex. So fundamental and yet elusive. It is education. “It is the best thing for Mama Liberia. Without education, we are nothing. It will build this country back if everybody got it.” 
Pragmatic solutions
How then to ensure that everybody in Liberia does have access to a free public school that enlightens and empowers?
As a teacher in one of Liberia’s public schools, Mr Kamara knows first-hand the scale of the problem Mama Liberia is facing. More than 50% of children start school 3-6 years late. The Minister of Education has estimated that teacher absenteeism is more than 60%. Even if you are one of the very few who complete secondary school – only 20% of children enrolled in primary complete secondary – there is little you will have learned. It is not just that you might not have mastered biology or algebra. Only 35% of adult women who attended secondary school can read a single sentence. The problem is staggering. It is such a large challenge it might be easy to just give up. To think of a solution that quickly gets everybody the education they need appears to be impossible.
Thankfully, <a href="http://www.emansion.gov.lr/2content.php?sub=121&amp;related=19&amp;third=121&amp;pg=sp">President Sirleaf</a> is a woman who has never given up and knows how to find pragmatic solutions and bring partners together. In January 2016, President Sirleaf announced a new education programme which would see school management organizations brought into partnership with the government to turn-around failing public schools. In the US, these are called turn-around charter schools. In the UK, these are called academies. In Liberia, they are called partnership schools.
FOR MORE WEF AFRICA CONTENT READ:
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/">WEF AFRICA 2017</a>
With just nine months until the next school year was due to start, there was little time, but a lot of excitement. <a href="http://www.bridgepartnershipschools.com/partnership-schools-for-liberia/">Partnership Schools for Liberia</a> was born, and eight organizations with experience from across Africa stepped up to the challenge to help Liberia achieve its mission and create powerful public schools.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vELjzJXgzqk">Bridge International Academies</a>, the social enterprise I co-founded with my husband in Kenya, was the first organization to be asked to partner with the government. Bridge now supports more than 230 school staff across 25 public schools in Liberia, serving nearly 9,000 children. We’ve raised donations to cover all the costs of our programming, bringing almost $4m in new philanthropy to benefit children to date. Almost 30,000 textbooks have been distributed and 16,000 teacher computers put into daily use. Teacher attendance has gone from an estimated 40% to more than 90% in less than one school year. “Because of Bridge,” Alfred Massaquoi, Vice Principal of the Bridge PSL public school in Julijuah said, “students are walking for two hours plus just to attend school.”
As we built a new team of changemakers and school leaders in Liberia, all of us at Bridge knew we were part of something very special and very difficult. We knew we’d need a lot of courage, and persistence. As would the government we are serving. Partnership Schools for Liberia is part of a wider, extensive national education revolution led by <a href="https://qz.com/876708/why-liberia-is-working-with-bridge-international-brac-and-rising-academies-by-education-minister-george-werner/">Minister George Werner</a>. In addition to the partnership schools’ work in eight counties in 2016-2017, Minister Werner has led work across all 15 counties to remove those chronically absent “ghost” teachers from the payroll, and to ensure that teachers themselves can read.
Fighting the status quo
Unfortunately, there are always people and organizations who find systemic change hard, since their interests are aligned with preserving the status quo – even when that status quo is a failed education system that is crippling a nation.
The National Teachers’ Association of Liberia (NTAL) called for Minister Werner’s resignation in September, and called for a strike which was widely covered in the international media, even though only a handful of teachers left their classrooms to picket the Ministry. The head of NTAL was not happy when the Ministry of Education announced his name as one of the thousands of “ghost” teachers who had been collecting salaries and abandoning classrooms. County Education officials have received death threats from people wanting to stop the cleaning up of payroll and testing if a teacher is literate. Partnership Schools for Liberia, which from the work of all eight partners has brought at least $5m in new philanthropy to benefit public schools and made Early Childhood Education free for the first time in Liberia, has suffered from an international misinformation campaign by those that are advocates of the status quo. It seeks to equate exactly the type of partnership the Sustainable Development Goals call for between government and the private sector, to ensure that every child has access to quality education, as an initiative that violates Liberia’s obligations, ethically, morally and legally.
Thankfully, within Liberia, teachers, parents, and most importantly children, are seeing the benefits of partnership, and are celebrating renewed and strengthened public schools. Christina Kollie, who attends the Bridge PSL public school in Upper Careysburg, told me, “If I was not in school, I would be home cooking to help mama. When I in school, it make me feel proud and I know if I stay I can be a big person in the community.” The time has come for not just one or a few girls to have access to a transformational school that enables them to imagine and build new worlds. It is time that every girl and boy in Liberia can read with true comprehension when leaving primary school, can use mathematics to solve problems, and can speak up with confidence.
With Partnership Schools for Liberia supporting Christina’s teachers and encouraging her dreams, I know that Christina will be able to learn in a powerful public school and become a ‘big person’ in her community. Perhaps just as big a person as the little girl born in 1938 who launched the programme that has seeded the education revolution of this generation.
World Economic Forum on Africa &#8211; Achieving Inclusive Growth is currently taking place in Durban, South Africa, watch CNBC Africa for full coverage. 
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There’s an education revolution taking place in Liberia. How can we make sure it benefits everyone?

At the age of 20 I aspired to be President and at the age of 30 I was appointed to the Presidency of my country. A decade on I developed a healthy respect and deep sense of humility about what it takes to successfully lead and fulfil expectations of all citizens in a poor developing African State. With 70 percent of Africans under the age of 30, mostly poor unemployed and unemployable, I believe there is a dire need for a heightened sense of urgency in the face of growing global and regional political uncertainty.
Centuries ago, Africans were caught off guard by the advent of the First Industrial revolution that manifested itself in superior fighting and transport technology. Centuries later past the Scramble for Africa, wars of independence from colonialism, and half a century struggle to attain economic independence, the continent is confronted with the rising challenge of the Fourth Industrial revolution. While the first revolution was dominated by land ownership and stretched over hundreds of years, the fourth revolution is primarily about knowledge ownership and is moving at the speed of light. This new challenge comes at a time when leaders are grappling with the reality of the failure of past growth to create jobs and reduce poverty and inequality.
The overarching theme of the forthcoming <a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/">World Economic Forum on Africa</a> that will be held in Durban, South Africa in May 2017 is Achieving Inclusive Growth through Responsive and Responsible Leadership. Building on global oriented conversations at our Annual Meeting in Davos this year on Responsive and Responsible Leadership we hope to expand the conversation on identifying new mechanisms to deliver inclusive growth and development with regional and global leaders.
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Source: Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017, World Economic Forum
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Source: Inclusive Development Index 2017, World Economic Forum
Leaders around the continent are facing myriad challenges, ranging from investment downgrades, to droughts exacerbated by climate change, illegal migration and civil protests. More worryingly, the 2016 Ibrahim Index of African Governance highlighted that among others the rule of law has declined in over 30 countries since 2006. Accordingly, below are three areas in which the continent’s leaders will explore how to grapple with these new challenges while addressing the inclusivity challenge by embracing the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
One, mobility related technology is connecting the continent in unparalleled ways under land, overland and above land. Over 70 percent of Africans now have unprecedented access to mobile technology. This digital infrastructure offers <a href="http://disrupt-africa.com/2017/02/how-technology-can-create-new-pathways-for-inclusive-growth/">new opportunities</a>  for the majority of poor Africans in rural and informal economies.
In 2017, Africa is expected to launch the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). The key objectives of the CFTA are to boost intra-Africa trade and investment by easing the movement of goods and people on the continent and to improve Africa’s competitiveness and economic growth by reducing the cost of doing business. Intra-Africa trade stands at about 15% of total volume, compared to 60% of intercontinental trade in the European Union, 53% in East Asia, 41% in North America and 20% in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Africa’s High-speed railway network is becoming a reality beginning with the launch of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/next-stop-the-red-sea-ethiopia-opens-chinese-built-railway-to-djibouti">Ethiopia-Djibouti train</a> last October.  Transnet is also leading the way by launching the first locally “designed, engineered and manufactured” train named the <a href="http://www.fin24.com/Economy/transnet-launches-r350bn-locomotive-for-africans-by-africans-20170404">Trans African Locomotive</a> in April 2017.
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Source: Rexparry sydney, CC BY-SA 3.0 
(<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2427121">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2427121</a>)
Also, after Zipline’s successful launch of <a href="https://www.iafrikan.com/2017/01/06/after-a-successful-launch-in-rwanda-ziplines-drones-will-now-trial-medical-deliveries-in-tanzania/">drone-delivered</a> blood supplies in Rwanda last year, it is increasingly evident that drones are revolutionising the small cargo delivery supply chain.
Two, disruptions to manufacturing technology such as the internet of things and 3D printing are liberalising access to technology and decentralising production. At <a href="http://ahntify.com/inside-gearbox-and-the-grand-plan-to-change-kenyas-manufacturing-narrative/">Gearbox</a> in Kenya, makers from the informal industry including jua kali artisans without formal engineering skills are using 3D printing to manufacture quality products faster cheaply. Elsewhere technologists like <a href="http://standardtimespress.org/?p=4973">David Sengeh</a> inspired by the plight of amputees in Sierra Leone are harnessing artificial intelligence and machine learning to develop the next generation of prosthetic devices.
These developments notwithstanding, Africa still lags significantly behind the rest of the world in terms of manufacturing. According to the African Development Bank, the continent’s manufacturing exports doubled between 2005 and 2014 to more than $100 billion, with the share of intra-African trade rising from 20% to 34% over the same period. However, Africa&#8217;s share of global manufacturing exports remains less than 1%, compared with over 16% for East Asia.
Three, emerging African inventors are reimagining solutions suited to the African context. It is estimated that by 2040 700 million new housing units will be needed. This implies a radical rethink of what kinds of shelter to construct. <a href="http://observers.france24.com/en/20170208-meet-south-african-inventor-making-bricks-out-paper">Elijah Djan</a> from South Africa is ahead of the curve with his invention of bricks made out of paper essentially creating a sharing economy by finding new use for waste. In order for African innovators to thrive though, policy makers need to provide a conducive intellectual property regime and make it easier to do business competitively.
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In order for the continent to fully leverage opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial revolution, dramatic investments need to be made in order to ensure that Africans are equipped with the right skills for the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/future-of-jobs-davos-2017/">future of jobs</a>. For example, the overall shortage of engineers is estimated at 1 million. In addition, more efforts are required to reverse the widening gender digital divide.
FOR MORE WEF AFRICA CONTENT READ:
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/">WEF AFRICA 2017</a>
When all is said and done, successful implementation will depend on Africans shared values and identity. True integration is a bottom up cultural process not a top down political or technical process. Moreover, we cannot assume that we can work together if we do not deliberately build bridges across languages and borders, as well as actively prepare for transitions between intergenerational leaders. In Durban, home to the largest tribe in South Africa and largest diaspora of Indians outside of India, we will explore how to build a shared understanding and nurture collective responsibility to navigate the transition from Africa 1.0 to Africa 4.0 while strengthening our united socio-cultural heritage.
As we look back to see forward, it is equally important to stop bad traditional practices too. Madam Graca Machel and Archbishop Desmond Tutu have been long term advocates for Girls Not Brides, a global initiative to end child marriages. Recently Global Shaper <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/08/meet-the-young-woman-who-just-helped-end-child-marriage-in-tanzania/">Rebecca Gyumi</a> made history in Tanzania by managing to pass a landmark court ruling against child marriage. Leading change under 30 is possible.
Call to Action: Countries like Estonia have shown that it is possible to craft a national digital social order that delivers for all. How are you leading change for the 70% under 30 years? Please join the #ShapingAfrica conversation and put your issue on the agenda in Durban.
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Making rich Africa work for poor Africans

We all agree we need transformational partnerships between the public and the private sector to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) require a better understanding between partners and innovation around institutional structures to ensure accountability, risk and benefit sharing, and value for money. These are fine words but, as the representative of a large, research-based multinational, I have found that things are not always that simple.
FOR MORE WEF AFRICA CONTENT READ:
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/">WEF AFRICA 2017</a>
From the private sector viewpoint, governments need to provide clear laws and regulations, zero tolerance to corruption and a secure environment for business to operate. But they also need to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy, and have the flexibility to ensure that the partnership between the private sector and public sector is beneficial and delivers on national objectives. Support is available – the International Finance Corporation, a division of the World Bank, has been running a Pilot Health Public-Private Partnership Advisory Facility which advises governments on how to best approach partnerships in health.
Some African governments see PPPs as a key route to move their health system toward financial independence. One example of a successful collaboration is in Kenya, where Novo Nordisk has partnered with county governments, the Ministry of Health and faith-based organisations to build supply chain capacity to allow intensive monitoring of excessive mark-ups for insulin, driving down the price of a vial by 70%. Another example is the work done by the African Health Markets for Equity (AHME), which is working in Nigeria to improve the quality of healthcare in the private sector. Led by the PharmAccess Foundation, AHME partners with governments, donors, and public and private sector providers to provide health insurance for rural people through a subsidised annual premium. By reducing out-of-pocket payments for health services, the scheme is contributing to increased financial protection for the poor.
As Africa faces new health challenges, the need for transformational PPPs becomes even more necessary.  Longevity in many African countries has jumped since 2000. The leader is Malawi, with life expectancy at birth rising by an astonishing 42%, while Zambia and Zimbabwe have both seen rises of 38%. Many other African countries are also up more than 30%.
This has been achieved mainly through substantially reduced maternal, infant and child mortality, and success in dealing with Africa’s traditional killers such as HIV, malaria, and TB. At the same time, economic prosperity and urbanization have led to the rise of diseases common in older people and in higher-income countries, such as cancer, heart disease and diabetes. Such chronic, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) require a very different approach to the way infectious diseases are managed by health systems.
Many of these countries are aware of the dangers that NCDs pose, and the need to keep their health systems evolving to combat them effectively. In an effort to institutionalise the fight against chronic diseases, Kenya, Nigeria, and Cameroon are among many African countries which have developed government programs to fight NCDs.
But even for proponents of PPPs, there are challenges in extending them into a close, integrated long-term working relationship on chronic diseases. Finding effective solutions that have the biggest health impact requires novel solutions on both sides. We are trying out exactly this through a new program called Novartis Access, which launched in Kenya in 2015 and will be rolled out across multiple African countries by 2020.
The program provides a portfolio of medicines against the most common chronic diseases (hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, cancer and respiratory illness) to health systems at a cost of USD 1 per treatment per month. This is combined with capacity-building support for supply chain improvement and education for healthcare providers on how to manage the most common NCDs. For a private company, offering very affordable pricing in a portfolio model is a transformative idea that carries great volume opportunities but also risks. For governments, moving from single drug procurement to a portfolio approach requires a mind-set shift and sometimes adapting the way medicines are procured.
Novartis Access aims to be profitable in the medium term, albeit at low margins, so it is sustainable long-term. The program is not dependent on donor funding but relies on governments continuing to see both the supply of affordable NCD medicines and the investment in training as cost-effective solutions to improve the health and wealth of their people.
We are still at the very early stages of our journey. We don’t pretend to have the solution to improving access to medicines, but I believe Novartis Access and programs like it offer compelling examples of how the pharmaceutical industry can work with other partners – including other private sector companies, government, and faith-based organistions – to overcome access issues in poor countries.
This article was supplied to CNBC Africa by WEF Africa. Watch our coverage from 3-5 May 2017
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Co-creating solutions to fix Africa’s health challenges

Africa presents a mixed foreign direct investment (FDI) picture
<ul>
<li>South Africa remains the largest FDI hub in Africa</li>
<li>Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa (the key hub economies) collectively attracted 58% of the continent’s total FDI projects in 2016</li>
<li>Investment from the Asia-Pacific region into Africa hit an all-time high in 2016</li>
</ul>
Johannesburg, 3 May 2017. According to EY’s latest Africa Attractiveness report, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and “multispeed” growth across Africa present a mixed FDI picture for the continent.
The report provides an analysis of FDI investment into Africa over the past ten years. The 2016 data shows Africa attracted 676 FDI projects, a 12.3% decline from the previous year, and FDI job creation numbers declined 13.1%. However, capital investment rose 31.9%.
The surge in capital investment was primarily driven by capital intensive projects in two sectors, namely real estate, hospitality and construction (RHC), and transport and logistics. The continent’s share of global FDI capital flows increased to 11.4% from 9.4% in 2015. This made Africa the second-fastest growing FDI destination by capital.
Ajen Sita, Africa CEO at EY says:
“This somewhat mixed picture is not surprising to us. Investor sentiment toward Africa is likely to remain somewhat softer over the next few years. This has far less to do with Africa’s fundamentals than it does with a world characterised by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and greater risk aversion. Investors with an existing presence in Africa remain positive about the continent’s longer-term investment attractiveness, but they are also cautious and discerning.”
[bc_video video_id=&#8221;5420037448001&#8243; account_id=&#8221;1571595826001&#8243; player_id=&#8221;default&#8221;]
Asia-Pacific investors are bullish on Africa
In a sign of ongoing diversification of Africa’s FDI investors, more than one fifth of FDI projects and more than half of capital investment into Africa came from Asia-Pacific in 2016, an all-time record. Most notably, Chinese FDI into Africa increased dramatically, making the country the single largest contributor of FDI capital and jobs in Africa in 2016.
Foreign investors refocus on Africa’s hub economies 
Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa (the key hub economies) collectively attracted 58% of the continent’s total FDI projects in 2016.
South Africa remains the continent’s leading FDI destination, when measured by project numbers, increasing 6.9%. Morocco regained its place as Africa’s second largest recipient with projects up by 9.5%, followed by Egypt, which attracted 19.7% more FDI projects than the previous year.
New investment hubs appear in East and West Africa: ey
Although foreign investors still favour the key hub economies in Africa, a new set of FDI destinations is emerging, with Francophone and East African markets of particular interest.
Despite having a 31.7% decline in FDI projects in 2016, and weak growth in recent years, West Africa’s second largest economy, Ghana, remains a key FDI market. The country’s improving macro-economic environment and strong governance track record has seen Ghana rise to fourth position in the EY Africa Attractiveness Index (AAI). The index was introduced in 2016, to measure the relative investment attractiveness of 46 African economies based on a balanced set of shorter and longer-term metrics.
Staying in West Africa, Cote d’Ivoire also features in the top 10 of the AAI, and with a 21.4% jump in FDI projects in 2016, this illustrates that it’s becoming a country more favoured by investors.
Also in the west, Senegal has emerged as a potential major FDI destination although this is not reflected in its current FDI numbers. It does however rank strongly on the AAI 2017, taking eighth position, due to its diverse economy, strong strides in macro-economic resilience and progress in improving its business environment.
Sita concludes, “By 2030, Africa remains on track to be a US$3t economy. However growth needs to become more inclusive and sustainable to eradicate poverty at the levels that are required. If we accept the reality that physical connectivity – enabled by regional integration and the development of physical infrastructure – will remain a key stumbling block to inclusive growth across Africa for at least the next decade, then the need to actively embrace digital connectivity becomes critical. However, efforts to harness the potential of digital technologies as a fundamental driver of inclusive growth are still far too piecemeal and fragmented.
What is required is a far more collaborative effort between governments, business and non-profit organisations to adopt technological disruption, and create digitally enabled offerings with a particular focus on health, education and entrepreneurship.”

Africa has a new funder

(DURBAN) South Africa&#8217;s President Jacob Zuma said at the <a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/">World Economic Forum in Durban </a>that he didn&#8217;t mind being <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/political/2017/05/02/south-africas-zuma-quits-may-day-rally-boos-crowd/">booed by the angry masses </a>because it showed democracy was alive and well in his country &#8211; but saved a flash of anger for the questioning of his presidency.
President Zuma &#8211; under pressure through divisions in his ruling party and a <a href="http://cnbc.africa/category/trending/sa-downgrade/">downgrade to junk status</a> &#8211; was at his palm-pressing and chuckling best as he toured WEF Africa ahead of first speeches later in the day. He greeted workers and politicians alike with handshakes on his progress around the ICC in Durban before taking a few questions at an impromptu press conference, the first of which was about him being booed by workers at the May Day rally in Bloemfontein.
&#8220;Booing is part of the culture of democracy. I am very happy that people can demonstrate their feelings it is part of the maturing of our democracy,&#8221; say Zuma.
&#8220;People are free to do this and I am not going to charge a policeman with arresting them. This is not a dictatorship.&#8221;
There was a flash of anger when another journalist questioned his tenure as president amid so much protest.
&#8220;I am an African, elected by Africans. What is your problem? You have a problem.&#8221;
President Zuma is one of a <a href="http://cnbc.africa/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/2017/05/02/mugabe-wef-africa/">number of heads of state expected at WEF Africa</a>, which lasts until Friday. He said during his tour of the building he was happy that the event had been well organised.
&#8220;Africa is the future&#8230;We as Africans are discussing what will happen with our economies. No one is speaking for us; we are deciding our own future.&#8221;
Other heads of state expected in Durban are President Robert Mugabe, on his first WEF visit since Tanzania 2010, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and President Edgar Lungu of Zambia.

SA President Zuma speaks at WEF Africa on being booed, Africa is the future

(DURBAN) When the first of more than 1000 delegates, expected at this World Economic Forum Africa gathering in Durban, began arriving on the eve of this conference the temperature was 25 degrees and the locals said it was chilly. Most who live this close to the Indian Ocean are use to 30 degrees plus for most of the year.
For the next three days, in Durban, the interest in the economies of Africa is likely to be running hot.
Organisers say more than 100 countries from around the world will be represented at this year&#8217;s WEF Africa compared to 70 at last year&#8217;s WEF in Rwanda. Some of the surprise attendees this year is the German Finance Minister &#8211; who is bringing a plane load of CEOs with him- and the deputy leader of Singapore.
There will also be a strong contingent of African leaders in Durban. Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe will attend his first WEF since Tanzania in 2010. Yoweri Museveni, the leader of Uganda, has also confirmed along with Edgar Lungu of Zambia and King Mswati of Swaziland.
For more read: 
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/insights/world-economic-forum/2017/05/02/world-economic-forum-preview-africa-hub-opportunities-waiting-unlocked/"> 
World Economic Forum Preview: Africa – a hub of opportunities, waiting to be unlocked!</a>
<div class="simple-thumb"><a href="http://cnbc.africa/insights/world-economic-forum/wef-africa-2017/2017/05/02/wef-africa-preview/">The World Economic Forum roadshow lands in Africa</a></div>

Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe to attend first WEF since Tanzania 2010

There couldn’t be a better place for the World Economic Forum roadshow to land in Africa this week than next to the blue Indian Ocean with all its blue sky possibilities – surely a fillip for the mind, at least, in these grey days for business. Thousands of delegates will land in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, chosen over WEF’s usual playground in the fashionable tourist trap of Cape Town.
This will not only inject millions into a tourist city – that sometimes looks a bit frayed around the edges – but also comes at a time when the host nation is suffering incredible angst over its economic future. The once mighty South African economy is suffering a painful identity crisis over its long held, but not always warranted, title as the so-called the investment gateway to Africa.
What staggers me is that the people in power in the nation hosting WEF appear sanguine, to the point of complacent, over the cabinet reshuffle and subsequent downgrades to junk that are likely to play havoc with the economy.
The good thing about holding WEF in South Africa is that visiting delegates will not have to rely on reports, researchers and fact finders to sift through what is going on; just bump into your average working South African and you will hear it all in two minutes: uncertainty, struggle, fears for the future and concern over vague policy.
Speaking of vague policy, two words you will hear thrown around WEF quite a bit this year will be: “Inclusive growth.” It sounds good in cabinet, implying that everyone, right down to the poorest of the poor, should benefit from growth. I have always found that a strange misnomer because when there is growth it is the poor and the unemployed who are among first to feel its benefit through the multiplier. Jobs are created, industries spring up, money spent on goods and services, more taxes are paid to the benefit of those who can’t find jobs in the boom. If there is a lot of growth employers will have to hike wages, as competition for workers grows, which will increase living standards.
The only problem is that growth is viewed with nostalgia in South Africa right now and all the political slogans in the world are unlikely to change this. Forbes Africa believes the unfettering of private money will help to foster this growth that could take the country back to the prosperous days of 2005.
WEF will also be a good time for the business and political leaders of Africa to check the temperature of the world and continental economy. In Durban there will be plenty experts on what the Trump administration has in store for Africa; how power and infrastructure could hold the key to growth and how investors are trembling after weeks of pantomime in Africa’s most robust economy.
I always wonder about the wisdom of holding top level economic conferences in seaside resorts because the reassuring rhythmic crash of waves on the beach can lull delegates into a false sense of security.
Yet in Durban this scene can double as a field trip for WEF delegates. The wide blue Indian Ocean they will see out of their hotel windows could play a big part in the economy of Africa. According to South African government estimates, the ocean economy could lift growth by 4% by 2019 and create over a million jobs by 2033. It is one of the last, great, untapped resources.
The campaign to harvest the sea and create growth was well named by the South African government &#8211; Operation Phakisa. In Sesotho, it means hurry up.

The World Economic Forum roadshow lands in Africa

In Africa, poor oral hygiene is the leading cause of school absenteeism, with children who experience dental pain missing school and performing poorly academically.1 Similarly, untreated oral diseases can cause severe pain and infection, leading to poor productivity and absenteeism among adults in the workplace.2 Despite significant achievements in the state of oral health globally, why is Africa burdened with such persistent oral care issues?
Regrettably, access to oral health solutions and education is low. The majority of Africa’s population has little or no access to proper oral health care, with the few dentists available based in the cities. In Africa, the dentist to population ratio is approximately 1:150000 against about 1:2000 in most industrialised countries.3 In Nigeria alone, there are only 4,125 registered dentists; that’s about 40,000 people to 1 dentist.4 And where there are dental clinics, dental care is expensive and unaffordable for many and usually restricted only to curative services. Insufficient oral care training and education for health workers, who are the people responsible for educating Africa on preventative health care, leads to serious challenges in the pursuit of Africa’s oral health.
Yet, simple and cost-effective measures are available. With a lack of dentists in the region, preventive oral health strategies are crucial for avoiding costly cures. Brushing every day, day and night, with a fluoride toothpaste has been proven to help remove plaque and reduce tooth decay by 50%. It is the basis of good oral hygiene, and together with education about avoiding risk factors like sugar consumption and regular dental check-ups from childhood, brushing every day, day and night, can help maintain optimal oral health into old age.
Knowledge and awareness are critical but they alone cannot create a brushing habit. The change in behaviour needed to brush day and night every day can happen only when it becomes a social norm. This is where the need for strong partnerships comes in. When businesses and NGOs can work alongside government, teachers, midwives and community health workers, we can bring about an enduring change in habits and develop sustainable strategies that are inclusive to the most vulnerable, such as children in rural, hard-to-reach areas, pregnant woman and the elderly.
The collaboration between FDI World Dental Federation and Unilever is an example of how a joint vision can measurably improve oral health on a large scale and change Africans’ lives for the better. Over a decade of cooperation has enabled us to improve the oral health of 4.1 million children and their families in Africa to date. Together we aim to spread the message of good oral health habits and change the oral care behaviour of 25 million children and their families in Africa by 2020.
http://cnbc.africa/news/2016/05/23/co-creating-the-future-of-health-in-africa/
Last month we celebrated World Oral Health Day across Africa with the theme “Live Mouth Smart – Brush Every Day, Day and Night”. We welcomed representatives from Unilever and FDI during our celebrations in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire – indicating our global commitment to improving and maintaining the African smile. Not only did we celebrate more than a decade of partnership, we reaffirmed the link between oral health and overall health. Oral health is a fundamental component of general health and physical and mental well-being and the basis of a better quality of life. No wonder World Oral Health Day is also World Happiness Day; the two are inherently linked!
Initiatives such as Unilever Signal’s 21-day ‘Brush Every Day, Day &amp; Night’ programme teaches children the importance of good oral care habits by inculcating the habit of twice daily brushing. Implemented in partnership with FDI, this oral health educational programme seeks to empower both children and their parents with the knowledge necessary to free them from oral health concerns. We also introduced our ‘Little Brush, Big Brush’ campaign, a fun and engaging mobile and digital programme with the potential to reach even more families and protect their smiles.
To achieve a healthier Africa, we need to implement preventive oral care and reinforce the message of how oral health affects overall health. We also need to keep in mind that oral hygiene and nutrition are linked and that a poor diet is associated with increased likelihood of oral disease.5 Focussed education programmes can change children’s oral care behaviour and equip community health workers with the knowledge to be champions of oral care. Only by working in partnership can we slowly but surely relieve Africa of its oral care burdens and keep current and future generations of Africans smiling and happy. 
*Dr. Patrick Hescot is the President of the FDI World Dental Federation and Dr Myriam Sidibe is the Director for Africa of Unilever Social Mission – Hygiene and Nutrition. 
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1 Impact of Poor Oral Health on Children&#8217;s School Attendance and Performance https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3222359/ 
2 WHO: Prevention is better than treatment http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/93/9/15-020915/en/ 
3 WHO: Oral health services http://www.who.int/oral_health/action/services/en/ 
4 Dr. Bode Ijarogbe, President, Nigerian Dental Association 
5 Good Oral Health and Diet https://www.hindawi.com/journals/bmri/2012/720692/

Yes, poor oral hygiene has a huge impact on Africa, this is how…

The article below first appeared in Forbes Africa and is republished with its permission. Subscribe today by contacting Shanna Jacobsen Shanna.Jacobsen@abn360.com﻿﻿﻿﻿ 
On a warm Johannesburg afternoon, in stoops the millionaire African author who wears his eminence, as well as his shoes, lightly. The laces on his shoes are undone as he walks in with his fourth wife Mokhiniso Rakhimova from Asia, 39 years his junior, at his side.
This is Wilbur Smith, one of the world’s best known novelists, who writes about Africa’s elephants, poachers, soldiers, mercenaries and leaders. He says the most treasured advice he got from his publisher was “write only about those things that you know well” and since then he has been writing about Africa where he was born and bred. 
Readers have devoured his 38 books in aeroplanes, hotel rooms and trains, from New York to London. He has sold more than 120 million copies; that is the equivalent of eight copies each for every man, woman and child in the country of his birth – Zambia. Half a century of prolific writing, but it could have been one of the shortest stories told.
In his first few months of life in Zambia, where he was born to his metalworker father, in Kabwe in Zambia’s copper belt, the doctor told his parents that the small child would be better off dead. Smith was diagnosed with cerebral malaria. The doctor warned that if the child survived he would be brain damaged.
Smith made a miraculous recovery to be a prolific novelist. He married four times and divorced twice. The third wife died from brain cancer in 1999. 
His stepson from a previous marriage dragged him to court for his assets and they’ve been foes ever since. Even worse, three of his own children have abandoned him after quarrels. 
<blockquote>“I spent so much time in the outhouse long-drop latrine, where I kept a cache of my favorite books, that my father ordered my mother to administer regular and copious doses of castor oil.” </blockquote>
His novels are divided into three series: The Courtney; The Ballantyne and The Ancient Egypt.
The 84-year-old Smith returned to his Ancient Egypt series with his new novel, Pharaoh, transporting you to a time of threat, blood and glory.
Smith’s breakthrough was 54 years ago, after the success of his first book, When the Lion Feeds, which saw him receive a film contract. But it was banned in apartheid South Africa on the grounds of ‘obscenity’ for mixed‐race relationships and blasphemy.
Smith was schooled in Michaelhouse, in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, where he started the school’s newspaper.
In 1954, he graduated with a Bachelor of Commerce from Rhodes University before working for his father’s cattle ranch as a chartered accountant. But his real love was reading and writing books. 
He credits his mother for reading him bedtime stories every night.
“Before I could read she taught me to revere books and the written word. Through her influence I became a reader at a precociously young age. I started with &#8216;Biggles&#8217; and &#8216;Just William&#8217;. Pretty soon I moved on to the novels of C.S. Forester, Rider Haggard and John Buchan. From then onwards I always had a well-thumbed book in my pocket,” he says in his biography. 
His father, as well as the mosquitos, was against him being an author. 
“He felt that my obsession with books was unnatural and unhealthy. I was forced to become a secret reader. I spent so much time in the outhouse long-drop latrine, where I kept a cache of my favorite books, that my father ordered my mother to administer regular and copious doses of castor oil.”
Pharaoh is part of a six-book deal, worth £15 million ($18.6 million), signed in 2012. Unusually, they will all be written with the help of co-authors.

Africa’s multi-million-dollar author who defied death

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of five South African banks to &#8216;BB+&#8217; from &#8216;BBB-&#8216;. The banks affected are Absa Bank Limited, FirstRand Bank Limited (FRB), Investec Bank Limited (IBL), Nedbank Limited (Nedbank) and Standard Bank of South Africa (SBSA). Fitch has also downgraded the Long-Term IDRs of four bank holding companies &#8211; Barclays Africa Group Limited (BAGL), Investec Limited (IL), Nedbank Group Limited (NedGroup) and Standard Bank Group Limited (SBG) to &#8216;BB+&#8217; from &#8216;BBB-&#8216;. All entities&#8217; Short-Term IDRs have been downgraded to &#8216;B&#8217; from &#8216;F3&#8217;.
At the same time, Fitch has downgraded the Support Rating (SR) of the government-owned Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) to &#8216;3&#8217;, from &#8216;2&#8217;, while affirming its National Long-Term Rating at &#8216;AA+(zaf)&#8217; with a Stable Outlook.
The downgrades result from South Africa&#8217;s sovereign Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency IDRs to &#8216;BB+&#8217; from &#8216;BBB-&#8216; (see &#8216;Fitch Downgrades South Africa to &#8216;BB+&#8217;; Outlook Stable&#8217;, dated 7 April 2017 at www.fitchratings.com).
The Outlooks on all banks&#8217; Long-Term IDRs are Stable, in line with the Outlooks on the sovereign&#8217;s Long-Term IDRs.
A full list of rating actions is in the rating action report above.
KEY RATING DRIVERS 
IDRs and VRs 
The IDRs of the commercial banks (and their holding companies) are driven by their standalone creditworthiness, as defined by their respective Viability Ratings (VRs). The VRs have been downgraded to &#8216;bb+&#8217; from &#8216;bbb-&#8216;, because of the banks&#8217; high exposures to sovereign risk, through large holdings of government securities, exposure to sovereign-owned enterprises and to the weakening operating environment.
All banks have strong franchises, sound management and governance, and solid financial metrics, which keep their VRs at the level of the sovereign&#8217;s Long-Term IDRs. However, their VRs are capped at the level of the sovereign&#8217;s IDRs because the majority of the banking groups&#8217; operations are in South Africa and they have high exposure to domestic sovereign debt relative to capital.
The deterioration in sovereign creditworthiness brings increased risks to the banking sector. Higher borrowing costs for the sovereign will translate into further pressure on economic growth, which is likely to result in deterioration of banks&#8217; financial metrics, in particular, asset quality, funding and liquidity, which is likely to have a knock-on effect on profitability and capital. Banks will have to build higher capital buffers to meet elevated risk in their operating environment to maintain their VRs.
SUPPORT RATINGS AND SUPPORT RATING FLOORS 
The SRs and Support Rating Floors (SRFs) of Absa, FRB, IBL, Nedbank and SBG have been affirmed at &#8216;3&#8217; and &#8216;BB-&#8216;, respectively, which reflects a moderate probability of support from the South African authorities if needed. This considers some compression between the sovereign rating and the SRF of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) as the ratings move down the scale.
We consider all five banks to be D-SIBs, but all SRFs are two notches from the sovereign rating, which reflects the proposed enactment of resolution legislation in South Africa to recapitalise a failing bank, which would make it more likely that senior creditors would be &#8220;bailed in&#8221;. Fitch continues to factor in a moderate degree of sovereign support propensity, as we believe that the South African authorities are likely to retain the flexibility to provide extraordinary support in the interest of financial stability.
NedGroup&#8217;s and BAGL&#8217;s SRs of &#8216;4&#8217; reflect a limited probability of support from the institutions&#8217; respective parents, Old Mutual Plc (BBB+/Stable) and Barclays Plc (A/Stable). The SRs of both bank holding companies reflect the ultimate parents&#8217; good ability, but limited willingness, to support. The latter reflects the proposed sale of BAGL by Barclays and the separation of Nedbank from Old Mutual. It also reflects Fitch&#8217;s expectation that the parents will continue to support the groups until completion of the respective sale and separation processes.
The SRs and SRFs of IL and SBG are affirmed at &#8216;5&#8217; and &#8216;No Floor&#8217;, respectively, as Fitch believes that support from the authorities would not extend to holding companies.
The SR of DBSA is downgraded to &#8216;3&#8217; from &#8216;2&#8217;, reflecting the weaker ability of the South African authorities to provide support to the bank. Fitch believes that the authorities&#8217; propensity to support DBSA continues to be high. This considers its status as a development finance institution, with a clear mandate, incorporated by an Act of Parliament.
NATIONAL RATINGS 
National Ratings reflect the creditworthiness of an issuer relative to the best credit and other entities in South Africa. The National Ratings of all commercial banks and their respective holding companies and DBSA have been affirmed as their creditworthiness relative to that of the sovereign and other rated entities has not changed.
DBSA&#8217;s National Long-Term Rating reflects a moderate probability of support from the South African authorities, if required. At &#8216;AA+(zaf)&#8217; it reflects slightly lower perceived creditworthiness relative to the South African sovereign.
SENIOR DEBT, SUBORDINATED DEBT AND HYBRID SECURITIES 
The senior unsecured debt program ratings of Absa, FRB, IBL, Nedbank and SBSA are equalised with the respective issuers&#8217; IDRs. Senior debt issued under these programs by FRB, IBL and Nedbank is also equalised with the respective issuers&#8217; IDRs. Therefore all Long- and Short-Term ratings for these programs and issues have been downgraded to &#8216;BB+&#8217;.
The National Long-Term senior unsecured debt program ratings of Absa, BAGL and FRB are equalised with the respective issuers&#8217; National Long-Term Ratings. Senior debt issued under these programs by FRB is also equalised with its IDRs. Therefore all Long- and Short-Term ratings for these programs and issues have been affirmed.
The Long-Term ratings of subordinated debt issued by FRB and Nedbank are one notch below their respective VRs to reflect higher loss severity relative to senior debt. These issue ratings have therefore been downgraded to &#8216;BB&#8217;.
The National Long-Term ratings of subordinated debt issued by BAGL, FRB and IBL are one notch below their respective National Long-Term Ratings, also to reflect higher loss severity relative to senior debt. Therefore these issue ratings have been affirmed. The National Long-Term ratings of two legacy upper Tier 2 notes issued by FRB are notched three times from the bank&#8217;s National Long-Term rating to reflect higher loss severity and non-performance risk. This issue rating has been affirmed.
RATING SENSITIVITIES 
IDRS and VRs 
All commercial banks&#8217; IDRs are sensitive to a change in their respective VRs. An upgrade of the banks&#8217; VRs is only possible if the sovereign rating is upgraded. A further downgrade of the sovereign rating would result in a corresponding downgrade of the banks&#8217; VRs and Long-Term IDRs.
In addition, all banks&#8217; Long-Term IDRs are sensitive to further weakening in their operating environment. This would most likely manifest in sharper than expected deterioration in asset quality that significantly affected earnings and capitalisation. In our view, given the increasing risks in the operating environment, banks require stronger capital bases and liquidity buffers to mitigate these risks. Therefore the banks&#8217; IDRs could be downgraded if their capital and liquidity buffers are not increased to meet elevated risks in the operating environment.
All the banks&#8217; Long-Term IDRs are also sensitive to a tightening of liquidity, which could result from capital outflows and more limited access to wholesale funding. However, this is not Fitch&#8217;s base case given banks&#8217; limited reliance on foreign wholesale funding and expectations of limited capital outflows from domestic investors.
SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR 
The SRs and SRFs of Absa, FRB, Investec, Nedbank and SBSA are sensitive to a change in the willingness and ability of the authorities to support the banks. A further downgrade of the sovereign rating could result in a downgrade and downward revision of the banks&#8217; SRs and SRFs respectively. Fitch&#8217;s view of a weaker propensity to support the banks is most likely to be triggered by clear statements of commitment to use resolution framework to resolve troubled banks in all scenarios.
The SRs and SRFs of BAGL and NedGroup are sensitive to the completion of a significant part of the respective sale and separation processes by their parents, Barclays and Old Mutual, or clear statements from the parents that they will not provide extraordinary support, if required, during these processes.
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/04/06/junk-rated-debt-cost-south-africa-10bn-lost-funds/
As holding companies, there is no upside for IL&#8217;s and SBG&#8217;s SR and SRF over the rating horizon.
DBSA&#8217;s Support Rating of &#8216;3&#8217; could withstand a further sovereign downgrade of up to two notches, indicative of further weakening in the ability of the authorities to support the bank.
NATIONAL RATINGS 
A change in National Long-Term Ratings would stem only from a change in the respective banks&#8217; creditworthiness relative to the sovereign or other South African entities.
For DBSA, this would be most likely to result from a change in Fitch&#8217;s perception of the South African authorities&#8217; willingness to provide support if required. This could include public statements or actions indicating a decreased willingness to support. Conversely, an increased willingness to support could come from explicit, formalised support such as guarantees or increased callable capital. The ratings are also sensitive to strategic or corporate governance failings, which could undermine the bank&#8217;s public mission.
SENIOR DEBT, SUBORDINATED DEBT AND HYBRID SECURITIES 
The senior unsecured program ratings of Absa, FRB, IBL, Nedbank and SBSA and senior debt issued under these programs by FRB, IBL and Nedbank are sensitive to a change in the banks&#8217; respective IDRs.
The National Long-Term senior unsecured program ratings of Absa, BAGL and FRB and senior debt issued by FRB are sensitive to a change in the banks&#8217; respective National Long- Term Ratings.
The Long-Term ratings of subordinated debt issued by FRB and Nedbank are sensitive to a change in the banks&#8217; respective VRs.
The National Long-Term ratings of subordinated debt issued by BAGL, FRB and IBL and FRB&#8217;s legacy upper Tier 2 notes are sensitive to a change in the banks&#8217; respective National Long-Term Ratings.
http://cnbc.africa/trending/cabinet-reshuffle-17/2017/04/04/south-africa-cliff-edge-just-1985/

Fitch downgrades big-five South African banks to junk

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The United Nations 2016 climate change conference (COP 22), which met last week in Marrakech, Morocco, presented an historic opportunity to refocus the global community&#8217;s attention on the need to help developing nations adapt to climate change. In no area could this be more pressing than Africa, where protecting food security and ending hunger is an urgent necessity.
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During the COP21 last year in Paris, the world&#8217;s developed nations reaffirmed their commitment to provide at least $100 billion per year, beginning in 2020, to help developing nations combat climate change.
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In the past, most funds have been used on mitigation projects—those intended to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. But there is a growing consensus that work focused on adapting to climate change is of equal importance and more funding needs to be devoted to it.
http://cnbc.africa/insights/energy-environment/2017/03/22/dealing-with-africas-climate-change/
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This is a step in the right direction. With 28 African countries expected to more than double in population by 2050, and 10 African countries—Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia—expected to grow &#8220;by at least a factor of five&#8221; by 2100, according to the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.html">U. N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs</a>, Africa will be hard pressed to feed itself as temperature increases drive farm production down.
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<figure class="st__content-block st__content-block--image"><img decoding="async" src="https://assets.weforum.org/editor/SIattisp3utSx99dQbcXsv8PP6EA4YtulU4081czqog.jpg" alt=" 1608B34-global temperatures climate change Source Reuters " />
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While increases in temperature and carbon dioxide &#8220;can increase some crop yields in some places,&#8221; experts at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply">noted</a>, Africa isn&#8217;t among them.
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In fact, the opposite is true: The scientific consensus is that a temperature increase of 2°Celsius would result in an average reduction of 15% to 20% in agricultural yields on the continent.
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The Center for Global Development&#8217;s 2011 report, &#8220;Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change Implications for Adaptation Assistance,&#8221; forecasts median agricultural productivity losses due to climate change ranging from 18% in North Africa to 19.8% in Central Africa through 2050.
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The weak output in Africa, reinforced by a spike in temperatures and exacerbated by extreme climate events, could create a vicious loop of food insecurity, impoverishment, mass migration and, finally, armed conflict. Climate-related migration and conflict already are a reality on the continent, and more often than not they are related to agriculture and food.
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In addition to the moral imperative of feeding people, there is also an essentially practical argument to be made in favour of significantly increasing support for agricultural adaptation in Africa—the so-called feedback loop. By helping Africa boost agricultural production through improved soil management and irrigation techniques, as well as increased research on other farming techniques that respect the integrity of land, the global community also would be helping reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. That&#8217;s because the improved agricultural practices, in a virtuous circle, would increase yields on poor farmland, reduce deforestation and improve the carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated soil.
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Currently, agriculture and Africa are the poor relations of climate finance. Adaptation, agriculture and Africa have been understudied and underfunded and their importance underestimated. In the area of agriculture, all geographic regions combined account for only 4% of public funds linked to climate change. The African continent, home to nearly 25% of the developing world&#8217;s population, receives just 5% of public and private climate funds. This is difficult to swallow when you consider that Africa is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, while only marginally contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.
http://cnbc.africa/news/special-report/2016/11/18/protecting-and-developing-african-agriculture-in-the-face-of-climate-change/
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By maintaining African agriculture and reinforcing its capacity for adapting to climate change, the international community can show its responsiveness to the life-and-death issue of African food security, while addressing the global imperative to reduce temperature increases.
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Marrakech COP22 has been a unique opportunity to finally position the adaptation of African agriculture as one of the highest priority subjects. Delegates to the Marrakech climate conference can help solve this problem by reallocating available climate change resources from mitigation efforts to adaptation projects in general, and to the African agriculture in particular.
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For Africa and the world, it is time to consider these realities.
This article was first published on 24 Nov 2016 at: <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/agriculture-and-africa-are-the-poor-relations-of-climate-finance-why-this-needs-to-change">https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/agriculture-and-africa-are-the-poor-relations-of-climate-finance-why-this-needs-to-change</a> and is republished with WEF’s permission
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Agriculture and Africa are the ‘poor relations of climate finance’. Why this needs to change

With South Africa and Nigeria being Africa’s two biggest economies, the recent credit rating downgrades by global ratings agencies, will negatively affect both nations and hit Africa’s overall economic growth.
The downgrades will have a ripple effect on the built environment sector and the cost of infrastructure development.
South Africa’s downgrade to <a href="http://cnbc.africa/trending/sa-downgrade/2017/04/07/fitch-downgrades-sa/">sub‐investment or ‘junk’ status</a> is a setback the economy can ill‐afford, especially in this already low growth environment. SA joins the majority of African countries currently rated below investment grade, including Nigeria, which in September 2016 was downgraded by S&amp;P further into junk status, with a B rating, five levels below investment grade. Fitch also revised its outlook for Nigeria to negative in January this year.
Both <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2017/04/03/south-africa-long-term-foreign-currency-rating-cut-bb-political-institutional-uncertainty-outlook-negative/">S&amp;P</a> and <a href="http://cnbc.africa/trending/sa-downgrade/2017/04/07/fitch-downgrades-sa/">Fitch</a> downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to below investment grade last week, while Moody’s put the country on review for downgrade, with a decision expected between 30‐90 days. Besides capital outflows from South Africa as a result of the downgrade, the country’s debt servicing costs are set to increase.
South Africa finds itself in uncertain territory having been above investment grade for 17 years. We cannot underestimate the impact, especially because South Africa has a well developed financial and investment sector compared to the rest of Africa. While Nigeria has always been rated below investment grade, its ratings have deteriorated since 2012 and last year its economy contracted. These downgrades are not good, not just for South Africa and Nigeria, but for Africa’s overall GDP growth prospects. We heard at the recent RICS Africa Summit in 
Johannesburg, that the economies of these two countries account for about half of Africa’s GDP. Referring to Nigeria and South Africa as ‘Africa’s big brother economies”, keynote speaker at the RICS Africa Summit, Bennet Kpentey, said the economies of these two nations needed to perform for Africa’s sake.
Kpentey, the Chief Executive and Managing Consultant at Ghanaian‐based Sync Consult Management Consultants, said the poor economic performance of Africa’s two largest economies was the main contributing factor to the continent’s slowing overall growth.
“When South Africa and Nigeria don’t perform well economically, it affects Africa’s overall performance… To put the rest of Sub Saharan Africa’s economic performance into perspective, you just have to exclude Nigeria and South Africa to see Africa actually still shows a good economic growth picture. Yes, five years ago it was higher, but much of the slowing growth also has to do with a multiplicity of external shocks, such as low commodity prices, weak global trade and political instability,” he explained.
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/04/04/credit-ratings-2/
Citing African Development Bank research, Kpentey said between 2012 and 2016, the world economy grew by a modest average of 2.5%, while Sub Saharan Africa’s economic growth averaged 3.7%. When Nigeria and South Africa’s GDP growth is excluded, Sub Saharan Africa’s economic performance increased to 5%.
“This is still world leading economic growth, much higher than the 1.6% growth of advanced economies during this period, and still higher growth than that of the group of Emerging and Developing Economies, which averaged 4.2%,” he added.
With Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth slowing to just 1.5% in 2016, Kpentey acknowledged that Africa’s growth has fallen the fastest. But, he said Africa was in no recession. “It is not a disaster. We need to deal with the issues and get strategies in place to mitigate the drop. This also illustrates why Africa’s big brother economies of Nigeria and South Africa need to perform, and why Africa’s economy overall needs to diversify, reducing its reliance on commodities,” he said.
Kpentey said Africa’s hurdles included the continent’s huge infrastructure gap; declining manufacturing; high poverty and inequality; government inaction and bureaucratic delays; climate change; and, the major issue of corruption. However, he said there was still “shine beyond the gloom”, including Africa’s resilience; its labour force and young population; urbanisation and growing middle‐class; its overwhelming adoption of information and communication technologies; increased business and foreign direct investment; and, its rich natural resources.
http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2016/06/03/south-africa-to-regain-investment-rating/
Speaking at the RICS Africa Summit, Amanda Clack, President of RICS, and Head of Infrastructure Advisory for EY in the UK &amp; Ireland, said collaboration was key to meeting the demands of Africa’s rapid urbanisation and growth. She also said policy uncertainty was a major threat to infrastructure investment in Africa.

The cost of SA, Nigeria’s junk status on Africa

The report below was first published by <a href="http://www.bmiresearch.com/">BMI Research</a> (a unit of Fitch Group) 
We predict that six economies will grow to exceed USD1 trillion in nominal GDP over the coming ten years: Argentina, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan and Turkey. They will join a number of emerging markets that have already achieved trillion-dollar-economy status : China, India, Brazil and Mexico. As shown in the chart, the pace of expansion in the newcomers will vary greatly, underscoring our &#8216;reformers to outperform&#8217; global theme.
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BMI-Trillion-economy.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-118896 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BMI-Trillion-economy.png" alt="" width="875" height="719" /></a>
Indonesia and Argentina are poised for swift economic growth and are closest to becoming trillion dollar economies, in our view. Indonesia is poised to cross the trillion-dollar threshold in 2018 , thanks to its large domestic market and natural resource wealth, as well as ongoing (albeit slow-paced) structural reform efforts . Argentina is currently a long way from being a trillion dollar economy (see table below), but will leapfrog several others to achieve that status by 2019 , according to our forecasts . Following the broad-based liberalisation of the economy under President Mauricio Macri, investment is strong and will increasingly trans late into new productive activity, particularly in energy, infrastructure and real estate (see &#8216;What A Difference A Year Makes&#8217;, December 8, 2016).
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are next in line to become trillion dollar economies , but they will not achieve this until 2023 in our view, barring radical changes in policy. The Turkish economy looks set to suffer from weak investment amid rising authoritarianism and a widening budget deficit (see &#8216;Precarious Fundamentals No Matter Referendum Outcome&#8217;, March 29). Saudi Arabian growth will likely be curtailed by fiscal austerity and the underdevelopment of the nonoil sector.
Meanwhile, we anticipate that Taiwan and Nigeria will take ten years to become trillion dollar economies . In Taiwan&#8217;s case, a number of structural factors are set to weigh on growth: an uncompetitive technology sector, a rigid labour market, deteriorating demographics and the slowdown in China (a key trade partner). Nigeria will suffer from a dearth of domestic capacity and critical reforms to the power, infrastructure and oil and gas sectors will be slow in coming.
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This African country is destined to have a trillion dollar economy in the next ten years

 The World Economic Forum launches its second annual search to identify Africa’s next generation of top female technology innovators and entrepreneurs 
 The top five entrepreneurs selected by the Forum’s judging panel will be invited to participate in the World Economic Forum on Africa on 3-5 May in Durban, South Africa 
 The meeting will convene leaders from business, government and civil society to explore regional solutions 
 To enter the challenge, visit: http://wef.ch/womeninnovators
Building on the success of last year’s inaugural search, the World Economic Forum has started the process to select the top female tech innovators in Africa, who will be invited to share their experience and engage with leaders at the Forum’s regional meeting this spring.
The search is open to any female entrepreneur whose business is less than three years old, uses innovative technology or business models, and has at least one year of revenue generation. The business must also be able to demonstrate social and economic potential.
“Africa’s best prospects for inclusive growth lie in its ability to tap into its vast pool of entrepreneurial talent,” said Elsie Kanza, Head of Africa at the World Economic Forum. “We want Africa’s top female tech entrepreneurs to join us so we can celebrate them as role models and so they can help governments and policymakers create conditions for others to flourish.”
The 2017 World Economic Forum on Africa will convene on 3-5 May in Durban, South Africa, under the theme Achieving Inclusive Growth. The meeting will convene regional and global leaders from business, government and civil society to explore solutions to create economic opportunities for all. It will provide insight from leading experts on how Africa will be affected by the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, particularly in terms of safeguarding the region’s economies from negative disruption and exploiting opportunities for further growth and development. 
The application for the 2017 search for Africa’s top female innovators can be found here. The closing date for submission is Monday 17 April. Prior to the World Economic Forum on Africa, a panel of experts will select the five top entrepreneurs to participate in the meeting.
The co-chairs of the 2017 World Economic on Africa are: Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, Oxfam International, United Kingdom; Siyabonga Gama, Group Chief Executive Officer, Transnet, South Africa; Frédéric Lemoine, Chairman of the Executive Board, Wendel, France; Rich Lesser, Global Chief Executive Officer and President, Boston Consulting Group, USA; and Ulrich Spiesshofer, President and Chief Executive Officer, ABB, Switzerland.

World Economic Forum on the search for Africa’s Top Female Innovators

S&P maintains Kenya’s rating at junk

Treasury statement 
<a href="http://cnbc.africa/trending/sa-downgrade/2017/04/07/fitch-downgrades-sa/">Fitch Ratings</a> has downgraded government’s long-term foreign and local currency debt to &#8216;BB+&#8217; from &#8216;BBB-&#8216; with a stable outlook, a non-investment grade rating.
The announcement by Fitch is noted by government and while it is a setback, government remains committed to making sure that its work with business, labour and the civil society continues in order to improve the business confidence and implement structural reforms to accelerate inclusive economic growth.
This downgrade reflects Fitch’s view that recent political events, including a major cabinet reshuffle, will weaken standards of governance and public finances. In the agency’s view, the cabinet reshuffle is likely to result in a change in the direction of economic policy, to undermine progress in state-owned companies’ governance, raising the risk that the contingent liabilities associated with these entities are realised and increase the prospect of a substantial increased issuance of guarantees in respect of a nuclear build programme.
The government would like to reaffirm its full commitment to the policy stance contained in the President State of the Nation Address and the Budget 2017. Government remains committed to: 
 The fiscal policy trajectory outlined in Budget 2017. 
 Implementing reforms to improve governance in state-owned companies. 
 Maintaining the expenditure ceiling and ensuring the stabilization of government debt. 
 Ensuring that Nuclear procurement will be transparent and implemented at a scale and pace that the country can afford. 
 Fast-tracking the implementation of structural reforms aimed at boosting economic growth as contained in the 9-point plan. 
To this end, and as acknowledged by Fitch economic growth is expected to be higher this year than in 2016 then rising further over the medium-term.
We urge all South Africans to remain positive and continue to work hard in turning this economy around. This country has tremendous potential, by working together we can make South Africa an increasingly attractive investment destination.
CEO Initiative&#8217;s statement 
The well-being of all South Africans has been dealt another blow following the downgrade of South Africa’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to sub-investment grade by a second ratings agency, Fitch.
In addition, Fitch also downgraded their ratings of the long-term rand-denominated sovereign credit rating to sub-investment grade. This is particularly concerning given that approximately 90% of all government debt is rand-denominated.
Fitch attributed these downgrades to their “view that the cabinet reshuffle which involved the replacement of the finance minister, Pravin Gordhan and the deputy finance minister, Mcebisi Jonas, is likely to result in a change in direction in economic policy and is likely to undermine, if not reverse, progress on SOE governance, raising the risk that SOE debt could migrate onto government’s balance sheet”. These are essentially the same <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2017/04/03/south-africa-long-term-foreign-currency-rating-cut-bb-political-institutional-uncertainty-outlook-negative/">reasons that Standard and Poor’s gave for their recent downgrade.</a>
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/04/06/sp-downgrades-seven-south-african-banks/
Unfortunately ordinary South Africans will pay the price of these actions for many months to come.
The CEO Initiative remains committed to working with the government and labour in creating an environment that is conducive to sustainable and inclusive growth for the benefit of all who live in South Africa.
In order for this to happen, it is now more crucial than ever that we maintain continuity with our fiscal plan and apply strict discipline in managing the country&#8217;s finances. Above all else, our country should not be drawn into borrowing even more money that would have to be repaid at higher rates of interest following these downgrades. 
 
BANKING ASSOCIATION OF SOUTH AFRICA statement 
The downgrading by Fitch, of both the foreign and local currencies of SA to sub-investment grade is devastating, though not unexpected.
The fact that Fitch has directly attributed its downgrade to the actions of the President demonstrates in no uncertain terms the broad assertion that the Cabinet reshuffle, although the prerogative of the President, was not in the national interest.
http://cnbc.africa/trending/cabinet-reshuffle-17/2017/04/03/business-leaders-response-to-sa-junk-status/
A presidential prerogative cannot be exercised in a reckless manner, with insufficient regard for the consequences of such prerogative. SA is now experiencing the dire consequences of the actions that started with the precipitous calling back of the previous minister from a critical roadshow. One has to ask if we would, as a nation, be in this position if we were not forced to abandon interactions with investors and rating agencies.
It is critical that government and the ruling party take heed as South Africa continues to slide backwards because of poor leadership and an inability to act in the national interest over what seems to be the interests of the ruling ANC itself.
http://cnbc.africa/trending/cabinet-reshuffle-17/2017/04/04/south-africa-cliff-edge-just-1985/
This additional downgrade is of greater concern as it includes a downgrade of the Rand, after the local-currency rating was also lowered one level to junk. This will have an immediate and severe impact on the currency, will seriously impact on our ability to attract foreign investment and will likely trigger a marked steep rise in prices of goods and services across the board. South Africa is poorer today.

S.A’s Treasury, CEO Initiative, BASA respond to Fitch downgrade

What explains the allegedly irrational decisions taken by the <a href="http://cnbc.africa/reshuffle/">South African government over recent days</a>? Two explanations suggest themselves. The first is that the decisions were not irrational, but part of a calculated power-play designed to further entrench the Zuma-aligned faction of the African National Congress (ANC). The second is that Mr Zuma took the decision to fire Pravin Gordhan under duress – and specifically Russian duress.
We are leaning towards the former explanation. In gaining control over the treasury the Zuma-aligned faction of the ANC has strengthened its position within the tri-partite alliance. Some analysts have suggested that Zuma may be recalled through a vote of no confidence in Parliament, but we do not think that such a move could succeed. Mr Zuma is a consummate chess player and has accounted for this eventuality, and the analysts who say Zuma will be removed by Parliament are likely to be wrong. We expect the ANC to put its immediate emphasis on unity, which means the party is unlikely to give its MPs the go-ahead for such a divisive move. Even if a dissident group did break away and join the opposition in voting  Zuma out, this would immediately see the Zuma-aligned speaker of parliament, Baleka Mbete, take over the functions of the President.  Zuma would remain leader of the ANC and his party supporters would quickly purge those dissident MPs who voted him out.
The Zuma faction of the party could therefore use a successful vote of no confidence to decimate opposition within the ANC. It would then go on to pick the next President from within the Zuma-aligned camp. This would leave Mr Zuma in a stronger position than he currently occupies – hence our view of him as a consummate chess player. It is therefore incorrect to interpret Mbete’s willingness to consider a vote of no confidence as evidence that the ANC is turning against Zuma.
The opposition that has grown in civil society to Mr Zuma has, at best, limited influence on internal ANC or parliamentary processes. We think this opposition will come to nothing for the time being. If it were to surprise and come to threaten the President, we expect the state security apparatus to swiftly nip that in the bud. Business leaders who have taken such an aggressive partisan stance against the now more deeply entrenched Zuma-aligned ANC are unlikely to stay the course. They will change tack and rather seek to influence the policies of the new-look cabinet. We also think that the government will try to preserve existing fiscal policy and confidence in the economy, and that dramatic short-term reversals in policy are unlikely. Rather, we will see a further deepening of existing policies, particularly those aimed at enriching a small politically connected elite while, at the same time, the government tries to rein in the budget deficit and get growth rates up – probably an impossible contradiction.
Overall, we read Gordhan’s axing as being aimed at eliminating the logjam that he caused through standing in the way of a number of nefarious business and other transactions. Those transactions may now go ahead. However, this will not necessarily lead to an immediate and fundamental change in macro-economic policy direction. It remains to be seen, though, whether the new finance minister can retain investor confidence and we are not reassured that he will. He is a loose cannon with a limited understanding of economics and a penchant for making reckless statements.
The second explanation for the government’s decisions is that Zuma took hurried and panicked decisions under duress. Understanding this explanation requires some context.
Work published J Peter Pham, head of the Africa Centre at the Atlantic Council in Washington, argues that the 1990s saw significant Russian disengagement from Africa as Russian policy makers blamed their economic ills in part on the costs of their Cold War interventions in developing economies, including those in Africa. Pham argues that this began to change when Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, and that Mr Putin moved to reengage with Africa in the pursuit of two strategic objectives.
The first was to capture African governments as a pool of diplomatic support for Russian interests on global fora such as the United Nations. African countries make up the single biggest geographic voting bloc across a range of global security, human rights, and trade and investment organisations. Being able to wield that voting bloc in pursuit of its strategic goals would greatly increase Russia’s global leverage. The chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs and former IRR staffer, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, has been quoted in the media as saying that for Russia to realign global power balances with Western democracies, “it needed to be present in all geographies — and, of course, Africa is an increasingly important one”.
http://cnbc.africa/trending/cabinet-reshuffle-17/2017/04/04/south-africa-cliff-edge-just-1985/
The second was to capture African energy resources and policy as a means of denying European countries any future African energy alternative to their dependency on Russian gas supplies. According to the energy consultancy, Wood Mackenzie, Russian exports meet approximately a third of European Union gas demand. According to The Economist roughly a third of German gas consumption is supplied by Russia, while countries such as Lithuania, Finland, Hungary, and Bulgaria are wholly dependent on Russian gas. In 2016 the New York Times quoted the Lithuanian foreign minister as saying that “energy was always used as a tool by Russia for blackmailing and leverage”.
Over the past decade-and-a-half, Russian energy firms became the spear point of Russia’s engagement with Africa. Research shows that after Mr Putin came to power Russian firms made considerable (occasionally multi-billion dollar) oil, gas, and nuclear power investments in countries ranging from Algeria to Nigeria, Ghana, and Egypt. The firms Gazprom, Lukoil, and Rosatom all made investments. Considerable non-energy investments were made in the resources sector in countries from Ivory Coast and Ghana to Namibia, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The volume of Russian trade with Africa increased considerably in the decade after Mr Putin came to power (sources we have consulted suggest five-fold and even greater increases).
In the case of both Egypt and now South Africa, the major investor is the Russian nuclear firm Rosatom. The firm is on the verge of developing nuclear power stations in Egypt. It is speculated that a South African nuclear agreement could be worth more than a trillion rand – more than ten times that of the controversial arms deal. In anticipation, a number of companies with close ties to the Gupta and Zuma families positioned themselves to take advantage of the pending nuclear agreement. The purchase of the Rietkuil uranium mine was one such deal (the details have been well analysed in the media).
Informed speculation is that past cabinet reshuffles were made to facilitate such deals and to get control of the Public Investment Corporation (which invests government pension funds) in order to finance some of these deals. The writer ‘Lily Gosam’ (a pseudonym), who publishes on the Business Day website, has done interesting research into these deals, and how cabinet reshuffles were made to enable them. Ms Gosam’s research is occasionally corroborated by unrelated sources. A reading of Ms Gosam’s research suggests that key ANC and government leaders have been so compromised by corruption around some of these deals that they have effectively become hostages of the originators of the bigger nuclear deal. South Africa’s recent voting record in the United Nations, which carries the fingerprints of Russian strategic interests, lends apparent credence to this theory. So, too, does South Africa’s anti-Western foreign policy.
As the nuclear agreement may be unaffordable for South Africa, it would effectively mortgage South Africa’s economy to Moscow. This would allow Russia quite extraordinary strategic influence within southern Africa, thereby achieving Russia’s strategic objectives in the region.
The theory of the Russian connection goes further. It has been alleged that Nhlanhla Nene was fired as finance minister in December of 2015 because of his refusal to support the Rosatom deal. Similar allegations are doing the rounds about the recent firing of Pravin Gordhan. One is that Mr Gordhan might have stated quite plainly on his ill-fated London trip that the government would not support any Rosatom deal. The allegation is made that a phone call was subsequently placed from a Russian observer in London to Moscow, which led to a second call from Moscow to highly placed individuals in the South African government with the instruction that Mr Gordhan be immediately withdrawn. We have been able to establish that this could almost certainly not have happened in the manner it was reported.
A parallel allegation is that the decision to fire Mr Gordhan had been taken some time earlier. This theory is supported by reports of increased currency shorting activity in the time leading to his dismissal. Some analysts have suggested that the allegedly hurried nature of his firing may explain why some ANC sources say they were not consulted on the decision. However it is more likely that Mr Zuma knew that he did not need to consult them as he already had the backing of those who counted. The disputed Check-Mate intelligence report was allegedly drafted to justify Mr Gordhan’s dismissal on the grounds that he was conspiring to overthrow the South African government. The illiterate nature of that report has suggested to some analysts that it may have been drafted in a hurry – but similar past reports have been written equally badly (the Special Browse Mole report comes to mind).
Our inclination is that the events of the past days were a sophisticated power-play by Zuma-aligned factions in the ANC and that these events have strengthened those factions. In short; a coup has taken place within the ANC that gives Mr Zuma far greater control of the party than he had a week ago. While the decisions taken may have served foreign interests and been influenced by those interests, Mr Zuma and his allies remain in control of the country and the government. We expect that the ANC will now look to unite around their policy and leadership conferences later in the year. The treasury and the broader government, we expect, will seek to restore some measure of confidence in the country and the economy but this will be very difficult to achieve.
&#8211; Frans Cronje is a scenario planner and CEO of the IRR – a think-tank that promotes political and economic freedom. His second book, a Time Traveller’s Guide to South Africa in 2030 will be published by Tafelberg in May

Monique Vanek

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