<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 16 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Wednesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-events">EVENTS:</h2>



*ETHIOPIA &#8211; State-owned Ethio Telecom holds a news conference on the planned share sale of a 10% stake on the country&#8217;s new bourse.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



Asian equities fell on Wednesday after disappointing earnings from Europe&#8217;s biggest tech firm ASML dragged chip stocks around the world, while expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a modest rate cut path propped up the dollar.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



Oil prices inched higher in early trade on Wednesday on uncertainty over what may happen next in the Middle East conflict, after demand concerns knocked the market to its lowest since early October in the previous session.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-africa-markets">SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS</h2>



South Africa&#8217;s rand was little changed on Tuesday after the release of a local business confidence index and the central bank&#8217;s bi-annual Monetary Policy Review.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-inflation">NIGERIA INFLATION</h2>



Nigeria&#8217;s inflation rate rose in September for the first time in three months, advancing to 32.70% in annual terms from 32.15% in August, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-markets">KENYA MARKETS</h2>



The Kenyan shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-politics">KENYA POLITICS</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s courts on Tuesday declined to stop this week&#8217;s Senate vote on Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua&#8217;s impeachment from going ahead.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-jp-morgan-expansion">JP MORGAN EXPANSION</h2>



JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, plans to enter Kenya and Ivory Coast this year and grow its footprint in Africa, CEO Jamie Dimon told Reuters.



((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 16

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="552" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-820x552.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542826" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-820x552.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-300x202.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-768x517.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-1536x1034.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Z5ZCDEUALVJB3FKZTMZRN6CCHI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Kenya&#8217;s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua speaks during a press conference, ahead of lawmakers&#8217; vote over his impeachment motion at his residence in Karen, Nairobi Kenya, October 7, 2024. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 16 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Impeachment proceedings against Kenya&#8217;s deputy president are constitutional, a court said on Wednesday, clearing the way for the Senate to hold hearings and vote on his dismissal this week.



Kenya&#8217;s National Assembly voted on Tuesday last week to impeach the deputy president, RigathiGachagua, on 11 charges which included corruption, undermining the government and stirring ethnic hatred. Gachagua has denied all charges.



Gachagua has said the impeachment motion, backed by opposition lawmakers and allies of President William Ruto, was based on falsehoods that constituted a political lynching, according to court documents seen by Reuters.



He launched an appeal in the high court, but Judge Erick Ogolla said the process could go ahead.



&#8220;At this stage, the process is a lawful, constitutional process, and the Senate will conduct a trial where all the issues being raised before the court will be raised and determined at the moment,&#8221; the judge said in court.



The deputy president was Ruto&#8217;s running mate in their 2022 election win, helping secure vital votes from the populous central Kenya region. But the men have since fallen out and political alliances have shifted.



Ruto fired most of his cabinet and appointed members of the opposition to what he called a unity government after nationwide protests against tax increases in which more than 50 people were killed.



The Senate is expected to hold hearings on Wednesday and vote on Thursday. A two-thirds majority would be needed to dismiss Gachagua.



(Reporting by Edwin Okoth and Ammu Kannampilly; writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

FILE PHOTO: Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua speaks during a press conference, ahead of lawmakers’ vote over his impeachment motion at his residence in Karen, Nairobi

Impeachment proceedings against Kenyan deputy president are constitutional, court says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542795" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/46QRGHAVVRL57L4K2LGPNJVTVI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, speaks during the ceremony for placement of the final beam for JPMorgan Chase&#8217;s new global headquarters building at 270 Park Avenue in New York City, U.S., November 20, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) &#8211; JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, plans to enter Kenya and Ivory Coast this year and grow its footprint in Africa, CEO Jamie Dimon told Reuters.



International markets are a growth area for JPMorgan, which has more than $4.2 trillion in assets and operates in over 100 countries. That compares with Citigroup, which does business in almost 180 countries and has the largest global footprint among U.S. banking giants.



&#8220;We want to add a country or two (enter or deepen presence) in Africa, every couple of years or so,&#8221; Dimon said by phone from New York on Friday before departing on a trip to Africa. The countries and pace of expansion have not previously been reported.



Dimon will hold meetings in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa on the tour, Reuters reported last month.



&#8220;This will allow us to be on the ground in these countries which gives you a lot more local knowledge and relationships,&#8221; Dimon said.



&#8220;And when you do it, you basically will cover the government, maybe some big government enterprises and the multinationals that are going in there with traditional banking services,&#8221; he added.



In Kenya and Ivory Coast, the bank will focus on commercial and investment banking, treasury services, and possibly some lending, Dimon said. In those two countries, it has no immediate plans to offer asset and wealth management (AWM) services, which are already available in South Africa and Nigeria.



&#8220;We are not doing AWM now but that doesn&#8217;t mean it wouldn’t happen in the next few years,&#8221; Dimon said.



JPMorgan&#8217;s earlier aspirations to enter Ghana and Kenya in the last several year were thwarted by regulators, according to media reports.



On Monday, the Central Bank of Kenya said it authorized JPMorgan to establish a representative office there.



In the past, &#8220;the U.S. government was not very keen on banks expanding into different geographies, as this was just after the financial crisis,&#8221; Dimon said noting the U.S. is now more supportive.



It is a positive move if U.S. financial institutions expand abroad, and the government should support such endeavors to compete overseas, he said, citing the broad footprint of Chinese companies and saying that U.S. companies should also be in these places.



Major global lenders have adopted differing strategies for individual sub-Saharan markets, targeting the fastest-growing areas while seeking to distinguish themselves from local and regional competitors.



For instance, Standard Chartered has focused on Kenya. Its assets under management in the East African nation grew by a quarter last year to 185.5 billion Kenyan shillings ($1.4 billion), it said.



The expansion may not have a material impact on JPMorgan&#8217;s business in the near term, but it will be beneficial for the company and future leaders in the long run, Dimon said.



JPMorgan is among the top five international private banks by assets under supervision.



In the last five years, about 700 bankers have been involved in expanding into 27 new locations worldwide, generating $2 billion in revenue for its commercial and investment bank, executives told investors in May.



(Reporting by Nupur Anand in New York, additional reporting by Hereward Holland, David Lewis and Duncan Miriri in Nairobi, editing by Lananh Nguyen and Lincoln Feast.)

FILE PHOTO: Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase

Jamie Dimon charts JPMorgan expansion plan into Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="602" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-820x602.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542577" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-820x602.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-300x220.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-122x90.jpg 122w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-768x564.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-1536x1129.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LYNXMPEG0F1AI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Victims of Cyclone Idai receive food aid at Siverstream Estates in Chipinge, Zimbabwe March 24 ,2019. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Millions of people across southern Africa are facing the worst food crisis in decades, the World Food Programme (WFP) said on Tuesday, warning that its ability to provide relief risks being stymied by funding shortfalls.



Amid unprecedented drought conditions, a record five countries &#8211; Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe &#8211; have declared a state of disaster and called for international humanitarian support, the U.N. agency said. Angola and Mozambique are also badly affected and around 21 million children are malnourished.



&#8220;Unless we receive additional resources, millions of people risk going through the worst lean season in decades without assistance,&#8221; WFP spokesperson Tomson Phiri told a Geneva press briefing.



The agency is planning to provide food and, in some cases, cash assistance to more than 6.5 million people in the seven hardest-hit countries to cover the period until the next harvest in March.



The WFP said, however, that it had only received about a fifth of the $369 million it needed.



&#8220;Crops failed, livestock has perished and children are lucky to receive even one meal per day. The situation is dire, and the need for action has never been clearer,&#8221; said Phiri.



(Reporting by Emma Farge, editing by Ed Osmond)

LYNXMPEG0F1AI

Millions in southern Africa facing worst food crisis in decades, warns WFP

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="524" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-820x524.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542491" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-820x524.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-768x491.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-1536x982.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LSUYGZLQFJNSJMK2KNF3ABV4GM-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A customer compares prices while shopping at a Pick and Pay shop in East London, in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African business confidence dipped in September on lower vehicle and retail sales and a drop in the value of building plans, but the overall trend since May&#8217;s election remains positive, data showed on Tuesday.



The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry&#8217;s Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to 110.2 in September, down from 111.5 in August but higher than the 109.1 recorded in July.



The BCI is released every two months.



Business sentiment rose gradually from June, when a broad coalition government was formed after the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority in the election.



&#8220;The meagre dint of the BCI in September may however be ascribed to understanding the challenges and finding convergence between role players,&#8221; the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said in a statement.



Factors supporting sentiment last month included increased numbers of international tourists, higher export volumes and lower inflation.



Annual inflation fell to 4.4% in August, dropping below the midpoint of the central bank&#8217;s target range and encouraging it to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years in September.



SACCI said it hoped the finance minister&#8217;s mid-term budget statement on Oct. 30 would &#8220;confirm the effort of resolving structural impediments in the economy&#8221;.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Alexander Winning)

A customer compares prices, in East London

South African business confidence dips, but post-election trend still positive

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="585" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-820x585.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542488" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-820x585.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-300x214.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-126x90.jpg 126w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-768x548.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-1536x1095.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/5Q76XJF7GNO2PA6LYO2BS7QVVU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A vendor looks on as she awaits customers at her stall in Mile 12 International Market in Lagos, Nigeria May 13, 2022. REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria&#8217;s inflation rate rose in September for the first time in three months, advancing to 32.70% in annual terms from 32.15% in August, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.



Analysts had said the inflation slowdown in July and August could be short-lived, after three petrol price increases since early September that have roiled citizens already grappling with the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.



The renewed rise in inflation raises the prospect the central bank could choose to continue with its rate-hiking cycle, after five hikes so far this year.



The Central Bank of Nigeria&#8217;s next rate decision is due to be announced on Nov. 26.



Nigeria&#8217;s petrol price increases are part of President Bola Tinubu&#8217;s government&#8217;s efforts to exit a costly fuel subsidy programme that has strained the public finances of Africa&#8217;s most populous nation.



Other reforms launched by Tinubu to try to lift economic growth and woo investment include devaluing the country&#8217;s naira currency, another strong contributor to inflationary pressures alongside crop damage caused by floods in food-growing regions.



Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed food inflation rose to 37.77% year on year in September from 37.52% the previous month.



Economists expect the disinflation process to resume in the coming months, potentially allowing the central bank to switch from a hiking to an easing cycle early next year.



(Reporting by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo in Abuja Additional reporting by Shamsuddin Mohd in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Winning and Barbara Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: A vendor looks on as she awaits customers at her stall in Mile 12 International Market in Lagos

Nigeria inflation rises for first time in three months

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="520" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-820x520.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542390" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-820x520.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-300x190.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-768x487.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-1536x974.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4SUMNVX4NJLMHGKOGXXS3REQBI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A man carries bread as he walks towards a grocery store, on a flooded street in Bamako, Mali September 23, 2024.REUTERS/Aboubacar Traore</figcaption></figure>



N&#8217;DJAMENA Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Father-of-seven Dah Toubada Kadapia stood on a stack of homemade sandbags in his backyard in Chad&#8217;s capital N&#8217;Djamena, surrounded by floodwaters that locals say have risen higher than past years, causing more damage than ever.



Over the last few months, heavy rains have flooded every one of Chad&#8217;s 23 provinces, burst a dam in northern Nigeria, damaged ancient buildings in Niger&#8217;s desert town of Agadez, and killed more than 1,460 people in the countries on the fringes of the Sahara, according to U.N. aid agency OCHA.



On one hand they were annual rains flagged up in advance with forecasts of particularly heavy downpours, raising the question, said Kadapia, why officials were not better prepared.



&#8220;If only the authorities could find a solution in advance, so that every year it wasn&#8217;t just water, water, water and floods,&#8221; he said.



On the other, some of the inundations were not so predictable. Rains fell further north than usual, flooding desert areas that usually see little rainfall in Chad and elsewhere, exposing gaping holes in infrastructure and official preparedness plans.



Africa&#8217;s economic losses linked to&nbsp;floods&nbsp;have been rising. A&nbsp;report by&nbsp;the World Meteorological Organization, published in&nbsp;2021, said they jumped to $12.5 billion in 2010-19,&nbsp;more than double&nbsp;the&nbsp;average of the&nbsp;preceding three decades.



And experts say there is worse to come.



The Sahel is increasingly threatened by floods due to changes in natural climate patterns, greater rainfall intensity, poor urban planning and other causes, according to a 2021 study in the Journal of Hydrology, which noted that &#8220;widespread havoc and devastation are becoming commonplace&#8221;.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-we-lost-everything">&#8216;WE LOST EVERYTHING&#8217;</h2>



A year after that paper was published, West and Central Africa was swept by one of the worst seasonal flooding disasters on record with more than 8.5 million people affected across 20 countries, according to OCHA.



This season, intense heat over the Sahara and other factors pulled the monsoon belt further north than usual, causing downpours in usually arid desert areas, said Wassila Thiaw, deputy director of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration&#8217;s Climate Prediction Centre.



Compared with the 1991-2020 rainfall record, this July-September period was among the five wettest years in much of Niger, Chad and parts of western Mali.



Some areas in western Niger and Mali, and the border between Niger and Nigeria, saw more rainfall than in the calamitous 2022 season, Thiaw said.



Social media was awash with videos of roads turned to rivers, half-submerged trucks and&nbsp;displaced people desperately trying to salvage their belongings from flooded homes.



Mali declared a state of national disaster and pushed back the start of the academic year by a month as schools filled with families driven from their homes by the floods.



Grandmother Iya Kobla sought shelter after a river in the Mali&#8217;s capital Bamako burst its banks, swamped her fishing village in ankle-deep water, and destroyed some of its mud-built homes.



&#8220;We lost everything and now my grandchildren are all sick,&#8221; she said, next to makeshift beds on a school floor.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-critical-moment">A CRITICAL MOMENT</h2>



Some of these events were foreseeable. Climate experts say global warming has increased the frequency and intensity of rain. West Africa is also going through a decades-long natural cycle of wetter&nbsp;monsoons following prolonged drought from the 1970s to 1990s, NOAA&#8217;s Thiaw said.



In 2023, the WMO and other international organisations launched an action plan to improve early warning systems for impending natural disasters in Africa, which has the lowest rate of access to such systems of anywhere in the world.



However, data show that the vulnerable communities most in need of these warnings are often the worst equipped to act on them, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior researcher at Columbia University&#8217;s Climate School, said.



In Chad, more than 40% of the population live in poverty. Meagre resources are stretched further by the presence of 2 million refugees, many living in basic camps.



&#8220;It&#8217;s incomplete to say if there were an early warning system, that action would have been taken and impact would be averted &#8230; There are many other elements that must be addressed,&#8221; Kruczkiewicz said, referring to the need for a pre-agreed plan, funding, community buy-in and other essentials.



&#8220;We&#8217;re at a critical moment and the West and Central Africa case exemplifies that, because the (rain) forecasts were there.&#8221;



(Additional reporting by Idrissa Sangare in Bamako; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

A man carries bread as he walks towards a grocery store, on a flooded street in Bamako

Monsoon havoc exposes West and Central Africa’s rising flood risks

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1366" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-506008" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532787-1536x1025.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ugandan shilling and US dollars in the draw at a foreign exchange currency bureau in Kampala, Uganda, on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023. Uganda&#8217;s central bank said it stands ready to act if the World Bank&#8217;s decision to halt new funding over the country&#8217;s passage of anti-LGBTQ legislation impacts the currency further. Photographer: Luke Dray/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling was steady on Tuesday, and was forecast to ease due to demand for dollars from commercial banks, traders said.



At 0811 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,660/3,670, compared with Monday&#8217;s closing rate of 3,657/3,667.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by George Obulutsa)

Ugandan Economy Following Rate Cut

Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="425" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-498541" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-300x177.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-152x90.jpg 152w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kenya shilling coins and notes are pictured inside a cashier&#8217;s booth at a forex exchange bureau in Kenya&#8217;s capital Nairobi, April 20, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The Kenyan shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.



The East African currency traded at 128.50/129.50 to the dollar at 0654 GMT, the same as Monday&#8217;s closing rate.



(Reporting by Sonia Rao; Editing by George Obulutsa)

ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-820x547.jpg" alt="ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions" class="wp-image-365501" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1-696x464.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/shutterstock_392452534_ZAR-spread_cu-1024x683-1.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s rand softened early on Tuesday ahead of the release of the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry&#8217;s (SACCI) September Business Confidence Index and the South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s (SARB) bi-annual Monetary Policy Review.



At 0644 GMT, the rand traded at 17.6350 against the dollar, about 0.2% weaker than its previous close.



The dollar last traded about 0.08% firmer against a basket of global currencies.



&#8220;With only the SACCI Business confidence data scheduled for release today, the bulk of the domestic focus will likely turn to the release of the SARB&#8217;s bi-annual monetary policy review,&#8221; ETM Analytics said in a research note.



&#8220;While the SACCI index aggregates data that has been released and is historical, the bi-annual review might reveal some insight that would help investors position themselves for future monetary policy,&#8221; the note added.



Investors will also be watching developments in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cutting path and Chinese asset volatility, both of which could influence the rand&#8217;s direction.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was little changed in early deals.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders)

ArcelorMittal South Africa fined R3.64 million over hydrogen sulfide emissions

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524600" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-1-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The following scheduled economic events, equity and currency market moves may affect South African markets on Tuesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-economic-events">ECONOMIC EVENTS</h2>



Weekly auction of long-term government bonds



Business Confidence Index for September



South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s October Monetary Policy review



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-african-markets">SOUTH AFRICAN MARKETS</h2>



The South African rand fell on Monday, and with little major domestic data this week the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.



On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index closed about 0.3% higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



Asian stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Wall Street close and investor optimism about corporate earnings, while the dollar held near a two-month top, aided by bets on a smaller U.S. rate cut next month.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-wall-street">WALL STREET</h2>



Wall Street ended higher on Monday, with both the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow posting fresh record finishes, as investors bought into technology stocks ahead of a busy week packed with corporate earnings and crucial economic data.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gold">GOLD</h2>



Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices.



&#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211;



Some of the main stories out in the South African press:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-business-day">BUSINESS DAY</h2>



&#8211; Ramaphosa says ideological differences will not derail GNU



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-fin-24">FIN 24</h2>



&#8211; Eskom municipal debt deal flops as municipalities renege on commitments



(Compiled by Tannur Anders)

istockphoto-1076949610-612×612-1

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The following company announcements, scheduled economic indicators, debt and currency market moves and political events may affect African markets on Tuesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-events">EVENTS:</h2>



*Nigeria&#8217;s statistics office is due to release consumer inflation data for September.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-global-markets">GLOBAL MARKETS</h2>



Asian stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Wall Street close and investor optimism about corporate earnings, while the dollar held near a two-month top, aided by bets on a smaller U.S. rate cut next month.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-oil-prices">WORLD OIL PRICES</h2>



Oil prices slid 3% in early Asian trade on Tuesday after a media report said Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of a supply disruption, and after OPEC lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-africa-markets">SOUTH AFRICA MARKETS</h2>



The South African rand fell on Monday, and with little major domestic data this week the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria-petroleum">NIGERIA PETROLEUM</h2>



Nigerian independent producer Belemaoil Producing has resumed operations at its oil block Oil Mining Lease 55 after a three-year shutdown as a result of damage to the facility caused by theft, it said on Monday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-world-bank-africa-economy">WORLD BANK AFRICA ECONOMY</h2>



The World Bank said on Monday it had lowered its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3% from 3.4%, mainly due to the destruction of Sudan&#8217;s economy in a civil war.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-markets">KENYA MARKETS</h2>



The Kenyan shilling was stable against the dollar on Monday, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya-banking">KENYA BANKING</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s central bank said on Monday that it had authorised JPMorgan Chase to establish a representative office in the East African country.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-uganda-railway">UGANDA RAILWAY</h2>



Uganda&#8217;s government and Turkish construction firm Yapi Merkezi signed a contract to build a 272 kilometre (169 miles) section of railway, in a bid to boost regional trade, a Ugandan official said on Monday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ivory-coast-cocoa">IVORY COAST COCOA</h2>



Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 100,000 metric tons by Oct. 13 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 12.3% compared with the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-democratic-republic-of-congo-mining">DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO MINING</h2>



Democratic Republic of Congo&#8217;s state miner Gecamines said on Monday it will ship for the first time germanium concentrates to Europe from its Big Hill tailings dump.



((Compiled by Nairobi Newsroom))

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-493882" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/6A7M3AO7TJLVNGKEVN2F6TDGYE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., as IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde meets with Argentine Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The world&#8217;s total public debt is set to exceed $100 trillion this year for the first time, and may grow more quickly than forecast as political sentiment favors higher spending and slow growth amplifies borrowing needs and costs, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.



The IMF&#8217;s latest Fiscal Monitor report showed global public debt will reach 93% of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024 and approach 100% by 2030. That would exceed its 99% peak during COVID-19. It would also be up 10 percentage points from 2019, before the pandemic exploded government spending.



Released a week before the IMF and World Bank hold annual meetings in Washington, the Fiscal Monitor said there are good reasons to believe future debt levels could be well higher than currently projected, including a desire to spend more in the U.S., the world&#8217;s largest economy.



&#8220;Fiscal policy uncertainty has increased, and political red lines on taxation have become more entrenched,&#8221; the IMF said in the report. &#8220;Spending pressures to address green transitions, population aging, security concerns, and long-standing development challenges are mounting.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-campaign-spending-promises">CAMPAIGN SPENDING PROMISES</h2>



The IMF&#8217;s concerns about rising debt levels comes three weeks before a U.S. presidential election in which both candidates have promised new tax breaks and spending that could add trillions of dollars to federal deficits.



Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump&#8217;s tax cut plans would add some $7.5 trillion in new debt over 10 years, more than twice the $3.5 trillion added from the plans of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, according to the central estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a budget think-tank.



The report finds that debt projections tend to underestimate actual outcomes by sizeable margins, with realized debt to GDP ratios five years ahead averaging 10% higher than originally forecast.



And debt could be further increased significantly by weak growth, tighter financing conditions and greater fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty in systemically important economies such as the U.S. and China. The report includes a &#8220;severely adverse scenario&#8221; involving these factors that shows global public debt could reach 115% in just three years, 20 percentage points higher than currently projected.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-spending-brakes">SPENDING BRAKES</h2>



The IMF repeated its calls for more fiscal consolidation, saying the current environment with solid growth and low unemployment was an opportune time to do so. But it said current efforts, averaging 1% of GDP over the six years from 2023 to 2029, are insufficient to reduce or stabilize debts with a high probability.



A cumulative tightening of 3.8% would be needed to achieve this goal, but in the U.S., China, and other countries where of GDP is not forecast to stabilize, substantially greater fiscal tightening would be needed.



The U.S. this month is expected report a fiscal 2024 deficit of about $1.8 trillion, or more than 6.5% of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office.



It said the U.S. and other countries where debt is projected to keep growing, including Brazil, Britain, France, Italy and South Africa, could face costly consequences.



&#8220;Postponing adjustment will only mean that a larger correction is needed eventually, and waiting can also be risky, because past experience shows that high debt and lack of credible fiscal plans can trigger adverse market reactions and can limit the room that countries have to deal with future shocks,&#8221; said Era Dabla-Norris, the IMF&#8217;s deputy fiscal affairs director.



She said cuts in public investment or social spending, tend to have a much larger negative impact on growth, than more poorly targeted subsidies such as for fuel. Some countries have room to broaden their tax bases and improve the efficiency of tax collections, while others can make their tax systems more progressive by taxing capital gains and income more effectively, Dabla-Norris said.



(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by David Gregorio)

IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542097" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NBCYKZR44FM2XJAGL3GJEWP3KA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A person enters the JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. New York headquarters in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 30, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s central bank&nbsp;said on Monday that it had authorised JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;JPM.N&nbsp;to establish a representative office in the East African country.



Representative offices of foreign banks in Kenya serve as marketing and liaison hubs for their parent banks and affiliates, the Central Bank of Kenya said in a statement.



The JPMorgan Chase representative office will contribute to the diversity of Kenya&#8217;s financial sector and catalyse trade and investments, the statement added.



Reuters reported last month, citing four sources familiar with the matter, that JPMorgan Chase&#8217;s CEO Jamie Dimon planned to travel to Africa in mid-October in a push by the biggest U.S. lender to expand on the continent.



(Reporting by Hereward Holland; Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alexander Winning)

A person enters the JPMorgan Chase & Co. New York headquarters in Manhattan, New York City

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524644" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Uganda shillings. Uganda. (Photo by: Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 14 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling traded flat on Monday, with hard currency appetite muted across merchandise importers and on the interbank market, traders said.



At 1030 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,660/3,670, same level as Friday&#8217;s close.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by Hereward Holland)

UGANDA SHILLING

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-542050" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/CKKI5RXPNVLOZBPSD2MVSPIHEY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A view of a street in the city of Omdurman damaged in the civil war in Sudan, April 7, 2024. REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank said on Monday it had lowered its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3% from 3.4%, mainly due to the destruction of Sudan&#8217;s economy in a civil war.



However, growth is expected to remain comfortably above last year&#8217;s 2.4% thanks to higher private consumption and investment, the bank said in its latest regional economic outlook report, Africa&#8217;s Pulse.



&#8220;This is still a recovery that is basically in slow gear,&#8221; Andrew Dabalen, chief economist for the Africa region at the World Bank, told a media briefing.



The report forecast next year&#8217;s growth at 3.9%, above its previous prediction of 3.8%.



Moderating inflation in many countries will allow policymakers to start lowering elevated lending rates, the report said.



However, the growth forecasts still face serious risks from armed conflict and climate events such as droughts, floods and cyclones, it added.



Without the conflict in Sudan, which devastated economic activity and caused starvation and widespread displacement, regional growth in 2024 would have been half a percentage higher and in line with its initial April estimate, the lender said.



Growth in the region&#8217;s most advanced economy, South Africa, is expected to increase to 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2025, the report said, from 0.7% last year.



Nigeria is expected to grow at 3.3% this year, rising to 3.6% in 2025, while Kenya, the richest economy in East Africa, is likely to expand by 5% this year, the report said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-commodities">COMMODITIES</h2>



The sub-Saharan Africa region grew at a robust annual average of 5.3% in 2000-2014 on the back of a commodity supercycle, but output started flagging when commodity prices crashed. The slowdown was accelerated by the COVID pandemic.



&#8220;Cumulatively, if that were to continue for a long time, it would be catastrophic,&#8221; Dabalen warned.



Many economies in the region were starved of public and private investments, he said, and a recovery in foreign direct investments that started in 2021 was still tepid.



&#8220;The region needs much, much larger levels of investments in order to be able to recover faster&#8230; and be able to reduce poverty,&#8221; he said.



Growth across the region is also hamstrung by high debt service costs in countries like Kenya, which was rocked by deadly protests against tax hikes in June and July.



&#8220;There are staggering levels of interest payments,&#8221; Dabalen said, attributing this to a shift by governments to borrow from financial markets in the last decade and away from the low-priced credit offered by institutions like the World Bank.



Total external debt among economies has risen to about $500 billion from $150 billion a decade and a half ago, he said, with the bulk owed to bond market investors and China.



Chad, Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia went into default in the last four years and have overhauled their debt under a G20 initiative Common Framework. Ethiopia is still working to restructure its debt while the others have completed their debt restructuring.



&#8220;As long as these debt issues are not resolved, there is going to be a lot of &#8216;wait and see&#8217; games going on, and that is not good for the countries, and certainly not good for the creditors as well,&#8221; he said.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Gareth Jones)

A street in the city of Omdurman damaged in the civil war in Sudan

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400641" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1x-1-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A collection of mixed denomination South African rand coins sit in an arranged photo in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Thursday, June 22, 2017. South Africas inflation rate rose for the first time this year in May after food-price growth quickened from the slowest pace since December 2015. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The South African rand softened in early trade on Monday, and with few major domestic data points this week, the local currency will likely be driven by global events, analysts said.



At 0713 GMT, the rand traded at 17.4375 against the dollar, about 0.3% weaker than its previous close.



The dollar eased about 0.02% against a basket of other major currencies.



&#8220;After what was shaping up to be a torrid week for the ZAR, last week closed out fairly close to where it started, which was not something many anticipated, given that the appreciation of the trade-weighted USD did not give up any ground,&#8221; said ETM Analytics in a research note.



This week, local investors could look to South Africa&#8217;s business confidence index on Tuesday and August retail sales figures on Wednesday for signs on the health of Africa&#8217;s most industrialised economy.



&#8220;In the interim, SA will be subject to more offshore developments to drive broader currency direction this week&#8230; None of the local data is likely to be particularly market-moving,&#8221; ETM Analytics&#8217;s note added.



Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand tends to take cues from global drivers in the absence of major local factors.



The European Central Bank will make its latest interest rate decision this week and markets will also be watching developments in Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cutting path and Chinese asset volatility.



On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index was little changed in early trade.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger in early deals, with the yield down 1 basis point to 9.145%.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Reuters

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 16

Impeachment proceedings against Kenyan deputy president are constitutional, court says

Jamie Dimon charts JPMorgan expansion plan into Africa

Millions in southern Africa facing worst food crisis in decades, warns WFP

South African business confidence dips, but post-election trend still positive

Nigeria inflation rises for first time in three months

Monsoon havoc exposes West and Central Africa’s rising flood risks

Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan

South African rand weakens, local data to have little influence

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Reuters

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 16

Impeachment proceedings against Kenyan deputy president are constitutional, court says

Jamie Dimon charts JPMorgan expansion plan into Africa

Millions in southern Africa facing worst food crisis in decades, warns WFP

South African business confidence dips, but post-election trend still positive

Nigeria inflation rises for first time in three months

Monsoon havoc exposes West and Central Africa’s rising flood risks

Ugandan shilling steady; to ease due to commercial bank FX demand

Kenyan shilling unchanged against dollar, LSEG data shows

South African rand softer ahead of business confidence index, monetary policy review

South African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

African Markets – Factors to watch on Oct 15

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

Kenya allows JPMorgan Chase to set up representative office locally

Ugandan shilling unchanged on muted FX appetite

World Bank cuts 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa over Sudan

South African rand weakens, local data to have little influence

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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