JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South African telecoms giant MTN said on Monday it expected to see a 20 percent improvement in earnings per share last year compared with 2017.



Headline earnings per share is a key profit measure in South Africa that strips out one-off items.



Africa’s biggest mobile phone operator reported headline earnings per share of 182 cents and attributable earnings per share of 246 cents for the prior financial year.



Following the announcement, MTN shares recovered some earlier losses to stand at 87.60 rand per share, down 0.57 percent, at 0924 GMT.



Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by James Macharia

Here’s why South Africa’s MTN expects to see a 20 percent improvement in 2018 earnings per share

The Forbes Billionaires List: Africa’s Billionaires 2019

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South African retailer Shoprite looked set for its biggest fall in almost 20 years on Wednesday after it warned of a steep drop in half-year headline earnings citing foreign exchange setbacks and other factors.



Shoprite in a trading statement released after the market close on Tuesday said it expects headline earnings per share (HEPS) including an adjustment for hyperinflation to fall by as much as 26 percent to 388.6-441.1 cents for the 26 weeks which ended on Dec. 30.



It reported HEPS of 525.6 cents in the prior comparable period.



Excluding the hyperinflation adjustment, HEPS is expected to fall to 334.9-387.4 cents, the company said.



“The low turnover growth resulting from low food inflation, temporary stock availability challenges and currency devaluations combined with lower non-RSA (non-South Africa) gross margins and inflexible expense growth have adversely affected profitability,” Shoprite said in its trading statement.



The supermarket operator and furniture retailer also recorded numerous once-off costs.



At market open, shares in Shoprite plunged more than 16 percent before paring loses to trade 10.7 percent weaker at 159.47 rand at 0936 GMT. They were on track for their biggest one-day drop since July 1999.



Last Tuesday, Shoprite, which owns more than 2,800 outlets across Africa, reported flat half-year sales, held back by a strike at its largest distribution centre in South Africa and sharp currency devaluations elsewhere. [nL8N1ZM26W]



“Now we are seeing the impact of those poor sales on their earnings numbers. It makes sense, when a company is facing increasing costs but sales are flat, earnings are going to decline,” Vestact equities portfolio manager Byron Lotter said in a note.



In South Africa the retailer has seen cost increases in rent, electricity, security, transport and depreciation, it said.



“January 2019 has seen the improved trading trend continue and we are confident of an improved second half as the impact of various once-offs continues to ease,” Shoprite said.



Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; editing by Jason Neely

South Africa’s Shoprite sees biggest fall in almost 20 years, here’s why

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South African retailer Mr Price Group Ltd reported a much slower sales growth for the third quarter, as financially constrained consumers spent less on clothes during the crucial months of November and December.



An increase in value-added tax, a rise in unemployment and inflation levels, coupled with higher fuel prices and an interest rate increase in November have reduced spending power in South Africa, Mr Price’s largest market.



This also resulted in lower Black Friday sales in November, while in December school holidays commenced a week later than the corresponding period, the group said in a statement.



During the three-months ended Dec.29, group retail sales and other income grew 3.5 percent to 7.1 billion rand ($517.36 million), while total sales of 6.7 billion rand were 2 percent higher. This compared with an 8.5 percent increase in total sales in the corresponding period.



Comparable store sales were down 0.8 percent.



Mr Price, known for its no-frills clothing and furniture stores, has grown for more than three decades by undercutting competitors and catering to thrifty shoppers’ fashion needs. But it too was not immune to the deteriorating South African consumer confidence.



($1 = 13.7234 rand)



Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu

South African retailer Mr Price reported slow sales growth in Q3, what you should know

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Kenya’s earnings from tourism jumped by almost a third in 2018 from the previous year to 157.4 billion shillings ($1.55 billion), after the number of visitors rose by 37 percent, the tourism ministry said on Monday.



($1 = 101.7500 Kenyan shillings)



Reporting by Humphrey Malalo; Writing by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Toby Chopra

This East African country’s tourism earnings rose by 37 percent

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Shares in South African telecoms giant MTN jumped 8 percent on Thursday after it settled a row with Nigeria’s central bank for a fraction of the $8.1 billion it had threatened to cost.



MTN announced on Monday that it would pay just $52.6 million to end the dispute in Nigeria, its biggest and most lucrative market, but also its most troublesome.



The case had dogged MTN, Africa’s biggest telecoms company, for four months, dragging its share price down 20 percent to hover around its lowest level since 2009 while also sparking pessimism around the ease of doing business in Nigeria.



It centred on allegations that dividends paid by the firm between 2007 and 2015 were based on improperly issued certificates.



The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had initially ordered MTN and its lenders to bring back $8.1 billion it alleged the company had illegally repatriated to South Africa during that time.



But after MTN provided additional documents, the central bank concluded only one 2008 private placement, worth around $1 billion, was irregular. MTN agreed to pay $52.6 million as a “notional reversal” of this transaction.



“MTN Nigeria will pay the notional reversal amount without admission of liability,” it said in a statement on Monday, announcing the settlement.



The central bank’s initial order threatened to wipe out more than half of MTN’s market capitalisation at the time it was issued in August, and spooked investors just as the company was trying to reassure them of its frontier market-focused strategy after a series of costly legal problems.



MTN shares were up 4.34 percent to 89.21 rand at 1055 GMT on Thursday, after rising more than 8 percent to highs of 93 rand in the first trading session since the settlement was announced.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">DIFFICULT MARKET</h3>



MTN is Nigeria’s biggest operator, with 52.3 million users in 2017, and the country accounts for one third of the firm’s annual core profits. But it has also proven problematic.



While the settlement marks a turning point in MTN’s fortunes in the country, the telecoms heavyweight still has to fight a $2 billion tax bill from Nigeria’s attorney general.



It also comes two years after the firm paid $1 billion for missing the deadline to cut off unregistered SIM cards &#8211; a fine that prompted its first ever annual loss.



MTN was also previously accused of illegally repatriating $14 billion to its parent company, but was cleared of the allegations.



The latest dispute cemented concerns about firms’ ability to effectively operate in Nigeria, where a sluggish economy, strained public finances and upcoming elections have also left some questioning the motives behind such cases.



“Why did it take the CBN several years to ‘discover’ this and confront MTN?” said Dobek Pater, a director at consultancy Africa Analysis, adding this at least suggests negligence or a lack of competence at the central bank.



“Sometimes the government (government organisations’) interpretation of the law/regulations can be speculative to suit their ends,” he told Reuters via email.



Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by Louise Heavens and Adrian Croft

MTN shares jump 8 percent as dispute with Nigeria ends, how much does the telecoms group have to pay?

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s Competition Commission on Thursday recommended Shoprite’s retail unit, which houses the country’s biggest supermarket chain, be fined 10 percent of its turnover for anti-competitive behaviour.



Shoprite shares fell more than 4 percent after the commission referred it to the country’s Competition Tribunal, which will ultimately decide if the commission’s charges and proposed fine should stand.



The retailer said it would oppose the decision to charge it with anti-competitive behaviour.



The retailer does not disclose turnover for its individual units in its financial statements, but Shoprite Checkers, which includes all of Shoprite’s supermarket brands as well as its liquor, furniture, meat and money businesses, is its biggest money maker.



Overall, Shoprite’s businesses brought in 145.3 billion rand ($10.22 billion) in revenue in 2018.



The case centres on Shoprite Checkers’ event ticket selling subsidiary, Computicket, which was also charged and fined 10 percent of turnover.



The Competition Commission said in a statement Computicket had signed agreements with inventory providers in the entertainment industry that enabled it to discriminate on prices between different-sized customers and served to exclude its competitors.



In a statement, Shoprite said it disagreed with the basis for the referral to the Tribunal.



“Opposing affidavits will be filed by the respondent companies within the required time frames,” Shoprite said referring to the 20 business days within which they can oppose the decision.



Its shares had recovered somewhat to 180.61 rand, a decline of 3.12 percent, by 1354 GMT.



The case marks the second time the commission has referred Computicket to the Competition Tribunal, with a decision on similar charges spanning the period 1999 to December 2012 still pending.



This is the first time that Shoprite has been added as a respondent to the charges, however, with the current case covering the period from January 2013 to present.



($1 = 14.2191 rand)



Editing by James Macharia and Alexandra Hudson

Here’s why South Africa’s Shoprite is facing a hefty fine

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s Access Bank has agreed to takeover mid-tier rival Diamond Bank, the lenders said on Monday, in a deal both said would create Africa’s largest bank by customers.



Nigerian banks have been trying to raise fresh capital after huge loan losses worsened by an economy that is recovering from its first recession in 25 years.



U.S. private equity firm Carlyle owns a 17.75 percent stake in Diamond Bank which it bought for $147 million in 2014 when the bank was trading at 0.6 times book value as against 0.15 times now.



“The board of Access Bank PLC today announces it has signed a memorandum of agreement with Diamond Bank PLC regarding a potential merger of the two banks that will create Nigeria and Africa’s biggest bank by customers,” Access Bank said in a statement to the Nigerian stock exchange.



As part of the deal, Diamond Bank said its shareholders would receive 3.13 naira per share, comprising of 1.00 naira per share in cash and the allotment of 2 New Access Bank ordinary shares for every 7 Diamond Bank ordinary shares.



Diamond and Access Bank both gained nearly 10 percent.



Diamond Bank said the board believed the move was “in the best interests of all stakeholders”. The bank also said its chief executive officer would step down after the merger.



Nigeria’s Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) late on Monday issued a statement in which it said: “It is a notice to merge, they have not merged yet. SEC is awaiting their application on the matter.”



The takeover follows weeks of speculation about Diamond Bank in the wake of the unexpected resignations of its chairman and three other directors in October.



Previous bank mergers in Nigeria have been imposed by the regulator. It was not immediately clear how this deal was agreed.



Diamond bank has been managing its capital since 2016 after huge loan losses worsened by a weak economy forced it to sell its foreign subsidiaries.



Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram in Lagos, Chijioke Ohuocha and Felix Onuah in Abuja

Africa’s biggest bank to be created as Nigeria’s Access Bank is set to buy rival Diamond Bank

PwC Strategy &amp; analysis



Mixed signals during Black Friday                          



While more South Africans participated in the Black Friday shopping event in 2018 compared to the preceding year, the average spend per consumer dropped noticeably. The decline in per-customer spending was also visible in the United States (US), where the concept of Black Friday originated. 



US online sales showed continued popularity with a 24% increase in transaction numbers, according to Adobe Analytics[1].Furthermore, this year’s Cyber Monday was the single largest shopping day in US history with reports of an estimated $7.9 billion spent &#8211; an increase of 19.7%from 2017[1].



Two in three South Africans participated in Black Friday in 2018; an increase from a 54% participation rate in 2017. From an online perspective, BankservAfrica counted over 400,000 sales transactions -a 55% increase compared to last year. Similarly, Cyber Monday sales transactions increased by 36% this year to 176 595.<a href="#_ftn1">[1]</a> In parallel, transactions per minute increased considerably on both days,according to Black Friday Global Analysis.<a href="#_ftn2">[2]</a> 



In contrast, electronic funds transfer (EFT)transaction values decreased by 19%.<a href="#_ftn3">[3]</a> Retail management platform Vend reported that in-store retail spending in South Africa over the 2018 Black Friday shopping period decreased by 10% compared to last year, while volumes also saw a decrease of 2%.<a href="#_ftn4">[4]</a> 



Nonetheless, spending results were encouraging in certain product segments. Clothes, electronics and shoes were the most bought items.<a href="#_ftn5">[5]</a> Small business funder Retail Capital<a href="#_ftn6">[6]</a>reported the following increases on credit card usage based on product category during the Black Friday weekend:



Winners during Black Friday weekend



(Source: Retail Capital)



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/black-friday-winners.png" alt="" class="wp-image-324549"/></figure>



 




Why did Black November sales disappoint? 



Not only did South Africans spend less per person, the sentiment on social media around the sales event was sceptical. Results from a PwC survey posted on Twitter concurred with the results of a Twitter survey<a href="#_ftn7">[7]</a>by News24. Both saw the majority of respondents expressing they would avoid the Black Friday shopping event.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/BF-sales-disappoint1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-324551"/></figure>



 



Based on PwC analytics, trending words for Black Friday on November 23 included “ heavy discount”, “specials”, “deals” and“savings”, as retailers aimed to entice shopper. However, consumers’ feed back showed that sales were not in line with the traditional massive 50% to 85% price slashes seen in the US.



PwC analysis shows that, on Black Friday, 27% of related Twitter commentary in South Africa was negative. This was notably higher than just 6% seen a few days earlier. The negative feed back on social media reflected what consumers viewed as disappointing price discounts and underwhelming offerings. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/social-sentiment.png" alt="" class="wp-image-324552"/></figure>



Following disappointing sales discounts on Cyber Monday, some 53% of recorded social sentiment was negative on Tuesday,27 November. In the days thereafter, negative sentiment was driven by customers reacting to mobile communication deals – especially cellular contracts &#8211; that did not come to fruition as expected. 



Social media posts following Cyber Monday highlighted the frustrations experienced by consumers, with complaints about “order” delays and “delivery” challenges



Excessive expectation build-up backfired



The local hype and build-up towards Black Friday was rampant. Being bombarded with several emails a day, seeing headlines on lampposts and talking about it with everyone around us &#8211; Black Friday seemed to be one of the hottest topics in November. 



However, the build-up towards the day turned out to be larger than life. With discounts averaging 20% in stores and online, many consumers were left disappointed.<a href="#_ftn8">[8]</a> 



The framing and expectation build-up surrounding Black Friday were disproportional to the sales discounts actually on offer on the day. Consumers were primed by the promise of massive discounts: in the US, discounts of 80% are common place on the day. In reality, South Africans were left frustrated, holding off on further shopping after realising the promise of significant sales discounts was exaggerated.



Missing out on scarcity and urgency in sales promotions



Rather than only concentrating on Black Friday sales, many stores aimed to stimulate spending during the entire month of November – resulting in what is now known as Black November. Discounts were on offer during the entire month, thereby diminishing the once-off special and never-before-seen appeal of Black Friday. Consumers tend to react to the idea of scarcity and urgency: When an item is in short supply, we tend to view it as more valuable. 



In this case, however, South African consumers were becoming familiar with the idea of seeing sales in stores;diminishing the rush and urgency of buying a specific product before the sale concludes. The familiarity associated with discounting in stores and online meant consumers would not buy a product unless its price dropped even further.Various online stores offer discounts throughout the year, meaning they would have had to run extreme price promotions before experiencing a larger spike in sales. 



Priming in favour of responsible shopping



There were also several warnings from consumer groups, financial regulators and news publications in the lead-up to Black Friday to warn against excessive spending and overindulging. This may very well have primed consumers to spend less and more consciously, tempering excessive spending. With the lead-up to Christmas holidays and the expenses that go with it, the warnings likely hit home, making it top of mind that consumers should be more cautious when spending money, even in the face of widespread sales. 



Implications of Black Friday performance for Christmas sales



Stats SA announced on 4 December that South Africa’s economy had exited the technical recession in the third quarter following a GDP growth increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter(q-o-q).<a href="#_ftn9">[9]</a> Household final consumption expenditure also increased in the third quarter, rising by 1,6%q-o-q. The main contributors were food and non-alcoholic beverages,furnishings, household equipment and maintenance, clothing and alcoholic beverages and tobacco<a href="#_ftn10">[10]</a>. 



However, it remains to be seen whether the recovery in household spending is sustained and will boost Christmas shopping sales. Alternatively, will festive sales this year see the same mixed outcome as Black Friday? For now, retailers are faced with a South African consumer that remains under pressure. Unsurprisingly, business confidence amongst retailers remained in net negative territory during the fourth quarter of 2018, according to a survey by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).<a href="#_ftn11">[11]</a> 



According to the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released on 28 November, overall consumer sentiment decreased by 15 points between the second and third quarter.Furthermore, the household financial outlook dropped from 31 in the second quarter to 13 in third quarter. In parallel, inflation increased in October to 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.9% y-o-y in September,<a href="#_ftn12">[12]</a> adding further strain to consumers’purchasing power. Consumers have felt the pinch from continued petrol price hikes during 2018 leading to a record high price of R17.08/litre in November. 



Income levels and access to credit must be considered as primary influencers of sale participation.<a href="#_ftn13">[13]</a>If Black Friday sales showed a decrease in popularity and spend, Christmas sales are likely to see a similar outcomes unless stores (physical and online)display considerably higher price discounts. 



Overall, the signals sent by disappointing Black Friday numbers and other related data suggest a mediocre outlook for Christmas retail sales. 



Article by LulluKrugel, Christie Viljoen, Maura Feddersen &amp; Genevieve Frydman, PwC Strategy &amp; Economists

Disappointing #BlackFriday suggests uncertain outlook for Christmas season shopping

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Somalia’s economic growth is expected to pick up in 2018 as it recovers from drought that had reduced farming output, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.



It said it projected gross domestic product at 3.1 percent this year from 2.3 percent in 2017. Somalia exports bananas and also produces sorghum.



“Economic activity in 2018 is recovering from the 2016–17 drought. A favourable rainy season is supporting the economic recovery, particularly in the agricultural and livestock sectors; this is leading to a decline in food prices,” the fund said in a statement.



The IMF expects inflation to reach 3.5 percent this year, down from 5.5 percent in 2016.



Somalia has been in turmoil since 1991, when clan-based warlords overthrew dictator Siad Barre and then turned on each other. Over the past decade it has also been hit by an insurgency waged by al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab, as well as famine and maritime piracy.



Reporting by Aaron Maasho; Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg

Here’s how much the IMF expects Somalia’s GDP to grow by in 2018

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s economy grew 1.81 percent in the third quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, pushed higher by the non-oil sector, the statistics office said on Monday.



The figures are a slight improvement from the previous quarter, when a slowdown in growth sparked fears that Africa’s biggest oil producer might enter recession for the second time in three years.



But a sluggish recovery since 2017 could bode poorly for President Muhammadu Buhari, who is seeking a second term in February 2019 elections and for whom economic rejuvenation has been a key pillar of policy.



The non-oil sector grew 2.32 percent in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, adding that information and communication services were the main driver of the expansion.



Oil production rose slightly to 1.94 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the period, from 1.84 mbpd in the previous quarter, yet the sector’s growth contracted 2.91 percent from the previous year when production was at 2.02 mbpd, the statistics office said.



Reporting by Paul Carsten; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky

Nigeria’s economy grows by 1.81 percent in Q3, pushed higher by the non-oil sector

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tolu-olarewaju-405190">By Tolu Olarewaju</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/staffordshire-university-1381">Staffordshire University</a>
Two of the largest banking and financial services institutions in the world, HSBC and UBS, have <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-03/hsbc-ubs-shut-nigeria-offices-as-foreign-investment-declines">recently closed their local representative offices</a> in Nigeria.
There’s also trouble brewing elsewhere in Nigeria’s business world that’s prompted fears about the climate for foreign direct investment in the country. Foreign direct investment is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country into business interests located in another country.
For instance, Nigeria’s government in September <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/nigeria-fires-back-at-hsbc-after-bank-criticizes-president">accused HSBC of money laundering</a> after an analyst working for the lender said a second term for President Muhammadu Buhari <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/09/11/2019-second-term-buhari-will-nigerias-economy-hsbc/">may stall economic recovery </a> in Africa’s biggest oil producer.
There are also tensions between Nigeria’s central bank and the South African telecom company MTN. In 2015, MTN was <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-45424537">fined about $5bn</a> for failing to cut off unregistered SIM cards. This was later reduced to $1.7 billion after a long legal dispute and the intervention of South Africa’s then President Jacob Zuma.
Recently, the central bank has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/nigeria-orders-mtn-banks-to-refund-8-billion-exported-funds">ordered MTN to repatriate $8 billion</a> it said has been taken out of the country illegally.
Analysts are <a href="https://nextedition.com.ng/2018/11/09/analysis-hsbc-ubs-left-nigeria/">concerned</a> that the Nigerian government’s attitude towards MTN and the two banks may erode the confidence of foreign direct investors. Their fears seem to be well founded: foreign direct investment in Nigeria <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/foreign-direct-investment">fell to</a> <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/nigeria/foreign-direct-investment">$1 billion in the first half of 2018, from $1.48 billion in the first half of 2017</a>.
Foreign direct investment is crucial for any economy. So how can Nigeria attract and keep the right kind of investment from global companies? Compromise will be key, both for the government and foreign firms.
<h2>Why foreign direct investment?</h2>
Foreign direct investment is often preferred to exporting. That’s because while exports merely involve moving goods from one country to another, foreign direct investment actually involves an investor establishing foreign business operations or acquiring foreign business assets.
This often includes establishing ownership or controlling interest in a foreign country (for instance an American business establishing a physical business presence in Nigeria). Many emerging economies like China, Brazil, Vietnam and India have <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/leadership/top-10-countries-receiving-foreign-direct-investment/gallery?slide=1">built their growth on FDI flows</a>.
The trick is to attract “quality foreign direct investment” that links foreign investors into the local host country economy. The International Growth Centre, a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-international-development">British-funded</a> research centre that aims to promote sustainable growth in developing countries, <a href="https://www.theigc.org/blog/attracting-quality-foreign-direct-investment-developing-countries/">characterises</a> “quality” here as contributing to:
<ul>
<li>decent and value-adding jobs and enhancing the skill base of host economies;</li>
<li>transfer of technology, knowledge and know-how;</li>
<li>boosting competitiveness of domestic firms and enabling their access to markets.</li>
</ul>
<h2>What Nigeria can do</h2>
There are a few things Nigeria can do to boost foreign direct investment. For starters, it must play fair. Foreign and domestic businesses should be treated equally. They should be open, transparent and dependable conditions for all kinds of firms.
Another area that needs attention is infrastructure. Businesses need easy access to ports, an adequate and reliable supply of energy and relative certainty that the country will be good to invest in. Good institutions <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00758.x">also promote FDI</a>.
The government should encourage partnerships between foreign and local businesses. Foreign firms might be familiar with global good business practices, but local firms will be more familiar with the indigenous context. This synergy could be very beneficial.
It’s also critical that Nigeria gets its regional governments involved: there are many regions in Nigeria, and these regions all have unique opportunities and challenges. <a href="https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/AMBPP.2018.11006abstract">Our latest research</a> shows that when the central government of Nigeria ran out of ideas and foreigners wanted to exit the agricultural sector, the regional government of Kwara state stepped in to create a positive business climate based on the cooperation of local banks, community members, and the foreigners themselves culminating in the <a href="https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/learning-commercial-farming-through-shonga-farmss-approach.html">Shonga farms</a> public-private venture.
This has kept the firm in Nigeria. It’s also brought private investors to the table, bolstering the firm and the local economy.
Nigeria should also tap into its huge <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-37727761/how-can-investors-tap-in-to-nigeria-s-diaspora">diaspora</a>. There are many Nigerians living outside the country who understand its challenges. They should be encouraged to help, or asked to work with their networks to invest in the country.
<h2>What foreign firms can do</h2>
Foreign firms also have a role to play. They can enhance their success in Nigeria (and elsewhere on the African continent) in several ways.
First, they need a long term strategic plan. This means thinking carefully about what sectors or activities to target. Many foreign firms come to developing countries when things are rosy but leave when conditions change. They don’t properly consider that solving such problems will gain them a competitive advantage in the long run.
If they stay and follow a learning curve, foreign firms will better understand the local business context. They’ll also gain credibility among ordinary people and possibly get more customers and support that way.
In the same vein, foreign businesses should create local solutions that meet ordinary people’s needs. The banks leaving Nigeria have <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/breaking-hsbc-ubs-close-their-offices-in-nigeria/">been accused</a> of only catering to the needs of wealthy Nigerians, who are <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/business/2010/10/201010116251929702.html">perceived as corrupt</a>. A more diverse portfolio that catered to the needs of ordinary Nigerians would have nullified this claim.
Foreign firms must also work closely with credible and strategic local firms, and be willing to enter into dialogue with the Nigerian government where necessary. This is crucial especially as administrations may change or government policy may evolve. Dialogue could ensure that all parties are on the same page.
<h2>Act local, think global</h2>
It’s unfortunate that these banking institutions have decided to leave Nigeria. Hopefully both the Nigerian government and other foreign investors can learn from this.
The main takeaway for both foreign investors and governments involved in foreign direct investment is that it would be prudent for all parties to act locally but think globally.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107611/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tolu-olarewaju-405190">Tolu Olarewaju</a>, Lecturer in Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/staffordshire-university-1381">Staffordshire University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-nigeria-can-attract-and-keep-the-right-kind-of-foreign-direct-investment-107611">original article</a>.

Here’s what Nigeria needs to boost foreign direct investment

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s cash-strapped state airline will need a total of 7.5 billion rand ($540 million) from next month to fund day-to-day operations into 2019, a presentation to a parliamentary committee by the airline showed on Tuesday.
SAA, which has not generated a profit since 2011, survives on state guarantees and is regularly cited by credit ratings agencies as a drain on the government purse.
It has drawn up an austere turnaround plan that includes cutting jobs and routes in effort to turn a profit by 2021 and convince lenders to restore credit lines.
The airline said lenders have refused to lend the company 3.5 billion rand to plug a liquidity hole from December unless they received additional commitments from the government, the presentation showed.
In addition, the national carrier will need 4 billion rand ($288 million) from March next year, the presentation showed.
“Currently we don’t have an optimal capital structure and as a result of that we are dependent on debt which is not good&#8230; the banks are pushing now for much more better support from the shareholder to put in place for us,” said Deon Fredericks, SAA’s interim chief financial officer.
SAA is expected to make a 5.2 billion rand loss in the 2019 financial year and another 1.9 billion in 2020 before swinging into profit a year later, the presentation showed.
($1 = 13.8763 rand)
Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by James Macharia

SAA needs $540 million from next month to fund day-to-day operations

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; BP Southern Africa (BPSA) will invest $1 billion in South Africa in the next five years with more than a quarter of that set aside to upgrade the SAPREF refinery to produce lower sulphur diesel, its chief executive said on Thursday.
The 180,00 barrels per day SAPREF refinery, South Africa’s largest, is a 50:50 venture between Royal Dutch Shell and BPSA, a subsidiary of British oil major BP. The plant is located in the east coast city of Durban.
BP would invest 3.5 billion-4 billion rand ($252 million-$288 million) in the refinery upgrade, Chief Executive Priscillah Mabelane told Reuters, adding that about 40 percent of the total $1 billion investment would go on retail activities.
She said the upgrade would make “sure the refinery can meet the new specifications in terms of low sulphur and Marpol regulations.”
The plant would shut for maintenance from May to June 2019, she added.
The upgrade has been driven by new rules demanding a lower fuel sulphur content and changing customer preferences for cleaner diesel, such as D50 and D10.
Refinery operators have been in long-running talks with government on how to recover costs from upgrading work needed to produce cleaner fuel in South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy.
“From an industry perspective we are pushing very hard to ensure that there is policy clarity because we have been on this journey very long, almost a decade,” Mabelane said about the ongoing talks.
Industry players estimated in 2009 that the cost to upgrade to cleaner fuels would be about $4 billion.
Other operators in the sector include Total and Sasol.
Besides upgrading the refinery, Mabelane said BPSA would expand its retail activities in South Africa.
“We are aggressively going to grow our footprint in the country,” she said on the sidelines of an event with retailer partner Pick n Pay to launch a new innovation for a loyalty card that will also work at BP fuel stations nationwide.
BP was looking at opportunities to expand its services in Mozambique, where it is the second largest oil company, Mabelane said. “The market is exciting and dynamic,” she said.
($1 = 13.8783 rand)
Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by James Macharia and Edmund Blair

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s new Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said on Thursday that struggling state-run South African Airways (SAA) should be closed down, adding that decisions over the future of the state carrier were not under his remit.
SAA, which has not generated a profit since 2011, survives on state guarantees and is regularly cited by credit ratings agencies as a drain on the government purse.
“It’s loss-making, we are unlikely to sort out the situation, so my view would be close it down,” Mboweni told an investor conference in New York televised live on South African public broadcaster SABC.
“Why I say close it down is because it’s unlikely that you are going to find any private sector equity partner who will come join this asset,” Mboweni added.
In August, President Cyril Ramaphosa transferred oversight of SAA to the public enterprises ministry which is led by Pravin Gordhan from the finance ministry. Ramaphosa has pledged to revive struggling state firms, including SAA.
SAA CEO Vuyani Jarana has said he is mapping out a punishing austerity plan to turn the flag carrier around. He has said layoffs and other cuts were unavoidable.
In a dramatic fall from grace over the past decade, SAA has lost its place as Africa’s biggest airline and a symbol of patriotic pride to become a source of frustration for taxpayers who have forked out more than 30 billion rand ($2 billion) since 2012 to keep it in the air.
($1 = 14.4700 rand)
Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by James Macharia

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<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241212/original/file-20181018-67188-12rs5mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20181018 67188 12rs5mq.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>The WHO recommends HIV viral load testing to monitor people on ARVs. 
Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenda-gray-111201">By Glenda Gray</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/south-african-medical-research-council-1976">South African Medical Research Council</a>
A United Nations <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/909090">initiative</a> backed by global experts has set its sights on an ambitious programme to bring an end to the AIDS epidemic by 2030.
The 90-90-90 strategy aims to do this by reaching three targets: 90% of all people with HIV must know their status, 90% of those diagnosed with HIV must receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of people receiving antiretroviral therapy must be virally suppressed. When a person is <a href="http://www.who.int/hiv/mediacentre/news/viral-supression-hiv-transmission/en/">virally suppressed</a> it means the virus in their blood is undetectable. The last goal is informed by <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/article/PIIS2352-3018(17)30183-2/fulltext#%20">evidence</a> that people with a suppressed viral load are less likely to transmit HIV to others.
But a couple of steps still need to be taken before these goals can be met. The first is large scale community based HIV testing that aims to get people tested on an annual basis at the very least. The second is linking testing to care. This is critical because it addresses the gap between a person being diagnosed with HIV to when they start antiretroviral therapy.
The third step is the close monitoring of people taking antiretroviral medication. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255702/9789241512633-eng.pdf?sequence=1">viral load testing</a> as the primary method of monitoring people on antiretroviral therapy. Viral load is the measure of the amount of HIV in a person’s blood and is used as a measure of how well a person is responding to HIV treatment. The lower the viral load the better the health outcomes.
WHO guidelines advise that all patients on antiretroviral therapy receive a viral load test at six months and 12 months, and annually thereafter if the patient is stable. But very few patients receive that level of care.
The main barrier is the time it takes to get test results back from laboratories that are often situated great distances from clinics. One way round the problem is to enable viral load testing to take place at primary health care level – what’s known as point-of-care viral load testing. This would be a game changer. Results would be known immediately and health workers could intervene swiftly by evaluating antiretroviral treatments in real time. This would, in turn, improve treatment outcomes.
But achieving this requires innovation. A new approach is being piloted. The idea is to test if point-of-care viral load monitoring is in reach.
<h2>Testing</h2>
Monitoring the viral loads of people on antiretroviral therapy is an essential part of HIV management. Viral load testing helps doctors determine if a person is taking their medication as prescribed. It also helps to determine if patients are on the correct combination of antiretroviral drugs.
It’s a key part of the arsenal against HIV because research shows that people who are virally suppressed are less likely to pass on the virus to someone else. That makes it a key factor in breaking the cycle of transmission.
The most efficient way of doing this is through point-of-care testing sites. These are based within the community so that patients don’t have to travel long distances to get tests done as well as to receive treatment. This new model is being piloted with the aim of providing convenient access to care for patients.
Currently nearly all viral load testing is conducted in centralised and <a href="http://www.nhls.ac.za/?page=hiv_pcr&amp;id=61">designated laboratories</a>. This means that there can be lags in getting results back to the field. Patients can wait for weeks.
Laboratory based viral load testing is also expensive. Point-of-care testing is also cheaper than lab-based viral loads: health care workers could do the test rather than highly paid technicians.
Small steps have been made in the direction of enabling viral load monitoring to be done at point of care.
But additional equipment is also needed. Pilots evaluating point-of-care viral load testing are ongoing. A pilot is being run using a portable testing machine – the m-PIMA HIV1/2 – that fits on a desk top and can provide an accurate reading of viral load in under 70 minutes.
The machine is being tested to establish whether it meets WHO standards. Once it is given the stamp of approval by the WHO, ministries of health can start the implementation at all sites.
<h2>Closing the gap</h2>
All countries still struggling to bring the HIV pandemic under control are focused on achieving the 90-90-90 goals.
South Africa, which still has the <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/regionscountries/countries/southafrica">biggest HIV epidemic in the world</a>, with 7.9 million people living with <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/9234/SABSSMV_Impact_Assessment_Summary_ZA_ADS_cleared_PDFA4.pdf">HIV</a>, is no exception, and is making significant progress.
It is edging closer to the target of having 90% of people with HIV <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/9234/SABSSMV_Impact_Assessment_Summary_ZA_ADS_cleared_PDFA4.pdf">knowing their status</a>. And it’s made significant progress on the second target that 90% of people with HIV should be on treatment.
But it has some way to go on the third. While the country is on track to meet the goal that 90% of people on treatment be virally suppressed, it’s advances on this front haven’t been uniform. Some regions of the country still lag behind others. Being able to roll out point of care testing would go a long way in helping close these gaps.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104432/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenda-gray-111201">Glenda Gray</a>, Research Professor, Perinatal HIV Research Unit and President, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/south-african-medical-research-council-1976">South African Medical Research Council</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-innovation-can-help-end-the-aids-epidemic-by-2030-104432">original article</a>.

Innovation can assist in the end of the AIDS epidemic by 2030, here’s how

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; MTN Group, Africa’s biggest mobile operator, reported a 1.1 percent rise in quarterly user base on Monday, helped partly by strong performances in Nigeria, its largest but increasingly problematic market.
The company said its user base increased by 2.5 million subscribers to 225.4 million users in the quarter ended September, and mobile money customers grew by 1.7 million to 25.8 million users.
Mobile money customers charge their phones with cash, and send it to friends or family via the short message service. These counterparties can then make similar transfers or cash in their credits with pre-approved agents, such as merchants or banks.
MTN is embroiled in a $10.1 billion dispute with the west African country of Nigeria, which has accused the company of illegally sending money abroad.
The telecom firm, which makes about a third of its annual core profit in Nigeria, said the allegations are without merit.
Nigeria’s central bank on Aug. 29 ordered the South African firm and its lenders to bring $8.1 billion back into Nigeria that it alleges the company sent abroad in breach of foreign exchange regulations. MTN also faces a $2 billion tax demand from the country’s attorney general.
“We continue to engage with relevant authorities on these matters. We remain resolute that MTN Nigeria has not committed any offences and will continue to defend this position vigorously,” MTN said while posting the quarterly results.
Reporting by Tiisetso Motsoeneng, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

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