<h1 class="legacy">Why history will judge Burundi&#8217;s Pierre Nkurunziza harshly</h1>

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        President Pierre Nkurunziza arrives to inaugurate Burundi’s  Chinese-built state house on September 27, 2019.
        <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Photo by ONESPHORE NibigIra/AFP via Getty Images)</span></span>
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<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-e-kiwuwa-170147">David E Kiwuwa</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-nottingham-1192">University of Nottingham</a></em></span>

<p>Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi’s football-loving president and self-proclaimed pastor, has <a href="http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/2020/buru0610.htm">died at the age of 55</a>. By all accounts this was death most cruel. He was soon to hand over power to his handpicked successor, Major General Evariste Ndayishimiye.</p>

<p>Ndayishimiye, the former army major, recently won a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200525-ruling-party-s-presidential-candidate-secures-resounding-win-in-burundi">controversial election</a> which was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/05/world/africa/05reuters-burundi-election.html">reaffirmed by the constitutional court</a> only a few days ago. This would have been the first time in Burundi’s history that power was transferred peacefully from one leader to another, albeit from the same party. </p>

<p>So what does Nkurunziza’s passing mean for the transition process in Burundi? And to Burundi’s regional relationships?</p>

<p>When Burundians look back, some will remember their president as a man who laid the foundation for a belated political transition. Others will see his departure as good riddance. History will judge Nkurunziza as someone who brought unnecessary pain to a nation that had long suffered from political misrule, but who in death bequeathed it a golden opportunity for renewal.</p>

<h2>Iron fist</h2>

<p>Nkurunziza had been president of Burundi for the past 15 years. He came to power first as a parliamentary nominee in 2005, later winning two controversial popular <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-25/burundi-president-wins-controversial-third-term/6648132">elections</a>. </p>

<p>He ruled with an iron fist, making few compromises. For example, his insistence in 2015 on changing the constitution to enable him to have a controversial third term in power plunged Burundi into civil unrest of near civil war proportions. <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/africasource/burundi-s-flawed-constitutional-referendum/">Thousands died</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/06/unhcr-burundi-crisis-propels-refugee-exodus-150626180155576.html">many fled</a> the country.</p>

<p>To many, Nkurunziza was a hardliner within his National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy party. He presided  over wide-scale <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1013292">purges</a> of opponents and the muffling of the press. He also oversaw the rise of the much dreaded <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2015/04/28/who-are-imbonerakure-and-burundi-unravelling"></a><a href="https://africatimes.com/2019/12/17/report-burundis-imbonerakure-create-fear-ahead-of-2020-election/">Imbonerakure</a>  – militias that terrorised any real and perceived opponents.</p>

<p>His untimely passing, therefore, presents the nation of 11 million with an opportunity to chart a new path. </p>

<h2>The transition</h2>

<p>We could anchor Burundi’s political transition to Nkurunziza’s decision not to seek a fourth term of office, which he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32621442">first signalled</a> in 2015 and reiterated in 2018. Having muscled his way to a third term through the intimidation of judges of the constitutional court, and subsequently winning controversial elections, Nkurunziza must have understood the ramifications of his continued hold on  power.</p>

<p>His decision to “step aside” was instrumental in tempering political opposition and potential violent challenge to the status quo. Handpicking a successor, like many African strongmen, ensured both change and continuity – actions borrowed from the playbook of neighbours such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola.</p>

<p>It is highly unlikely, therefore, that transition in Burundi will dramatically deviate from the existing status quo, given the existence of entrenched interests, particularly the military and ruling party elites. </p>

<p>The fact that there’s an institutionalised dominant party will ensure ideological continuity, regime endurance and the strategic sequencing of transition or succession. </p>

<p>It is also crucial to appreciate that when authoritarian leaders die in office, more often than not regime elites coalesce rather than fragment. Regime elites are best served by ensuring the maintenance of the status quo. </p>

<p>In Burundi’s case this means rallying around Nkurunziza’s chosen successor, Ndayishimiye.</p>

<p>The sudden death of Nkurunziza is therefore unlikely to result in a fundamental change of direction.</p>

<h2>Protecting the legacy</h2>

<p>In handpicking the trusted party secretary, Nkurunziza ensured that his legacy wouldn’t be challenged or derailed by either the opposition or an outsider. </p>

<p>Nkurunziza had taken other steps to ensure that his influence on matters of the state continued uninterrupted. He had designated for himself the role of “<a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/05/19/burundis-president-is-now-supreme-eternal-guide-retirement-is-out">supreme guide of patriotism</a>”. This was no doubt designed to ensure a “subservient” successor president whose fortunes would have been at the behest of the ex-president. </p>

<p>The incoming president is considered to be more open-minded and less prone to violence than other generals. But the death of his predecessor doesn’t necessarily provide him with an open hand to do as he pleases, given the need to balance various competing elite interests within the party and the military.</p>

<p>The country’s new leader will also have to consider mending fences with its neighbours.</p>

<p>Burundi’s regional and international relations have ranged from frosty to toxic. Burundi blamed the failed coup attempt against Nkurunziza in 2015 on its northern neighbour, Rwanda. Bilateral relations and trust plunged to an all time low. </p>

<p>Rwanda saw Burundi <a href="https://www.chronicles.rw/2020/04/27/kagame-burundi-troops-operating-in-drcs-south-kivu-province/">as sympathetic</a> to the FDLR rebels in the DRC fighting against the Rwanda government. In turn, Burundi accused its neighbour of actively supporting opponents of Burundi’s own regime. Many of those opponents found shelter in Rwanda. So did thousands of refugees.</p>

<p>Burundi took exception to this. Nkurunziza’s personal relationship with Rwandan leader Paul Kagame was, at best, <a href="https://www.softpower.ug/burundi-president-nkurunziza-decries-rwandas-evil-policy-of-destabilising-neighbours/">frosty</a>. His death presents the ideal opportunity to reset relations between Burundi and Rwanda.</p>

<h2>Global pariah</h2>

<p>Burundi under Nkurunziza was cast as a global pariah. International financial and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/mar/15/eu-suspends-aid-to-burundi-government">economic support</a> was all but frozen. Long accused of gross human rights violations, Burundi became hostile towards the international community. It purged  national and international NGOs, and expelled the personnel of international institutions. The World Health Organisation’s country representative was the <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-burundi/burundi-expels-national-who-head-during-election-campaign-idUKKBN22Q0Y1">most recent casualty</a>.</p>

<p>President Ndayishimiye now has the opportunity to be his own man, and chart a different course for Burundi. The hope is that it will be one of prosperity, and peace and good neighbourliness.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140492/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /></p>

<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-e-kiwuwa-170147">David E Kiwuwa</a>, Associate Professor of International Studies, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-nottingham-1192">University of Nottingham</a></em></span></p>

<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-history-will-judge-burundis-pierre-nkurunziza-harshly-140492">original article</a>.</p>

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<p>Finance ministers of East Africa are expected to table their respective budgets in coming days for the new financial year that begins on July 1. The reading of East African budgets is normally a joint exercise.</p>



<p>The new budgets come at a pivotal time, as the unexpected Covid-19 pandemic has placed pressure on government finances in 2020.</p>



<p>Authorities have little choice but to provide fiscal support where they can. However, there will be challenges and the governments will need to closely monitor developments to avoid the budget deficits from spiralling out of control.</p>



<p>Government finances will take a hit across the region. We believe that this will for the most part be driven by the collapse in fiscal revenue due to the marked deterioration in the economic outlook.</p>



<p>The region’s largest economy, Kenya, has provided fiscal support through tax relief, which will further weigh on the revenue side.</p>



<p>In general, on the expenditure side we expect to see a lot of reprioritisation away from sectors that have seen activity halted due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This could include a reduction in direct spending in the tourism sector and construction.</p>



<p>These resources will likely be redirected towards containment efforts – particularly health care – and social support.</p>



<p>Regardless, East African fiscal finances will look a lot worse during the next fiscal year than what was expected a few months ago. Fiscal deficits will be wider than previously anticipated and public debt will increase at a faster rate.</p>



<p>We have seen multilaterals stepping up support, which could reduce the longer-term fiscal impact of the Covid-19 crisis, but commitments to date will undoubtedly have to be supplemented to ensure that the Covid-19 pandemic does not have a long-term fiscal legacy.</p>



<p>Furthermore, most East African nations have been able to assess the impact of the virus and incorporate this new reality into their budgets.</p>



<p>This is a lot more efficient than having to adjust a budget midway through a fiscal year.</p>



<p>Rwanda, the region’s fastest-growing economy in 2019, is to delay publishing its budget for the new financial year. The break from tradition comes down to the Rwandan Cabinet not yet having approved the finance minister’s budget proposal.</p>



<p>The government expects to spend RWfr3.245trn during the fiscal year 2020/21 – RWfr228.7bn more than the revised budget estimates.</p>



<p>Although we do not expect government to curb non-essential expenditure during this time, stimulus measures to fight against the fallout of the virus are unavoidable.</p>



<p>Rwanda’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen this year, in step with its regional peers. Moreover, public debt levels have risen over the years and 2020 will be no exception.</p>



<p>Given the extraordinary circumstances, forecast adjustments are likely.</p>



<p>Room to deploy fiscal policy to combat Covid-19 is limited.</p>



<p>It seems investors globally have made peace with the fact that many countries will have to increase borrowing to combat the pandemic, and if containment efforts show positive results, these countries should not struggle to find capital to fund the recovery.</p>



<p>The East African region is fighting an economic battle on two fronts.</p>



<p>Covid-19 is disrupting supply chains, curtailing economic activity at large and devastating regional tourism.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, the unprecedented locust infestation is wreaking havoc in the region’s agricultural sector – an industry generally spared from the Covid-19-induced economic slump.</p>



<p>The World Bank announced the commencement of an emergency programme to help countries in Africa fight the ongoing locust infestation.</p>



<p>The Bank noted that the first East African countries to be financed under the initial phase of the programme are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, with a total financing package of $160m.</p>



<p>Despite this support, the unprecedent nature of both the Covid-19 pandemic and the locust infestation will derail the region’s economic growth trajectory.</p>



<p>We expect Africa’s fastest-growing region to record a 1.8% GDP contraction this year.</p>



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