May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Turkey&#8217;s lira eased on Thursday ahead of its central bank&#8217;s interest rate decision in the face of rising inflation, while investors await a key U.S. jobs report for clues on the pace of a global economic recovery and further monetary stimulus.



The lira shed 0.2%. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 19% and not hint about a rate cut until the third quarter as economists see higher inflationary pressures, ahead a Reuters poll showed.



&#8220;If the May inflation data indeed comes out lower than the April &#8216;peak&#8217; of 17% expected by (the Turkish central bank)… we think the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the June meeting will be stronger,&#8221; said Berna Bayazitoglu, an analyst at Credit Suisse.



The lira has dropped nearly 19% since March this year when President Tayyip Erdogan replaced hawkish governor Naci Agbal with Sahap Kavcioglu, who shares Erdogan&#8217;s unorthodox view that high interest rates cause inflation.



MSCI&#8217;s index of emerging market currencies was subdued and stocks rose 0.3%, snapping a five-day losing streak as the Chinese yuan remained largely stable despite souring political relations and expectations of slowing export growth.



However, a recent rise in commodities such as oil and copper have helped support the currencies of most emerging markets like South Africa, Chile and Peru.



Russia&#8217;s rouble gained 0.2% buoyed by rising oil prices and data showing its service sector grew in April.



Emerging market currencies will find support from higher commodity prices and domestic vaccination rollouts this year, despite turbulence in U.S. Treasury yields that could diminish their appeal, a Reuters poll found.



Most Central European currencies such as the Hungarian forint, the Polish zloty and Czech crown gained nearly 0.2% against the euro.



The crown gained ahead of its central bank meet due later in the day where the monetary policy committee is likely to come to the unanimous decision to leave the key rate unchanged while investors would focus on the Czech central bank&#8217;s inflation projections.



&#8220;The bank seems to be more prepared to run the risk of acting slightly too late than hastily,&#8221; said Tatha Ghose, an analyst at Commerzbank.



&#8220;As a result, we remain cautious despite the positive economic surprise in Q1 and continue to expect a normalisation of key rates in the closing quarter of 2021.&#8221;



The dollar hovered near a two-week high on Thursday, consolidating ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that may provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will dial back monetary stimulus.



For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see <a href="http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh">http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh</a> For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see <a href="https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX">https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX</a>



(Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Turkey Lira, photo via Flickr

Turkish lira slips ahead of central bank meet; Rouble firms

May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Gold rose on Thursday as the dollar retreated from two-week highs and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders focusing on economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s strategy on monetary support going forward.



Investors also awaited the outcome of a Bank of England meeting, where the central bank is expected to say that Britain&#8217;s economy is heading for a much stronger recovery this year than previously expected, and is likely to start slowing its pandemic emergency support.



Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,793 per ounce by 0948 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,793.50 per ounce.



&#8220;Market is pricing in a &#8216;more distant&#8217; probability of a Fed rate hike after clarifications on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen&#8217;s remarks. That has been supportive for gold, with yields on long-term government bonds declining again and the dollar weakening,&#8221; said Quantitative Commodity Research Analyst Peter Fertig.



&#8220;There is still an opportunity for gold to surpass resistance at $1,800, but it&#8217;s also currently not that there would be a strong rush into gold,&#8221; Fertig added.



Yellen said on Tuesday she saw no inflation problem brewing, downplaying earlier comments that rate increases may be needed to stop the economy overheating.



Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slipped below 1.6% and hovered close to a one-week low hit on Tuesday, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.



The dollar index fell 0.3%, moving further away from a near two-week high hit on Wednesday.



Focus now shifts to Friday&#8217;s U.S. monthly jobs report, which is expected to show non-farm payrolls increased by 978,000 last month.



Meanwhile, palladium fell 0.5% to $2,957.66 per ounce, after scaling an all-time high of $3,017.18 on Tuesday on supply shortage.



Silver was up 0.8% at $26.70 per ounce, while platinum dipped 0.6% to $1,233.21.



(Reporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru)

Gold ingots and coins

Gold gains as U.S. dollar, bond yields pull back; BoE eyed

SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Chicago corn futures rose up to 2% on Thursday to their highest in more than eight years, as concerns over dry weather in Brazil and strong demand from animal feed producers buoyed the market.



Wheat extended gains and soybeans edged higher.



&#8220;The sentiment is pretty bullish, not just in corn but the entire grains complex,&#8221; said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.



&#8220;There are a lot of weather events globally, which are supporting prices, although the market has yet to see any real supply shock.&#8221;



The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) added 1.6% to $7.19-3/4 a bushel, as of 0112 GMT. The market touched $7.23 a bushel earlier in the session, its highest level since March 2013.



Wheat gained 0.5% to $7.48-1/4 a bushel and soybeans rose 0.3% to $15.47 a bushel.



Dry weather in Brazil is continuing to raise concerns about global supplies.



Brazil&#8217;s cereal exporter association Anec on Wednesday said the country would ship some 32 million tonnes of corn this year, 1.6 million tonnes less than in 2020.



China cancelled purchases of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery in the 2020/2021 marketing year, following the recent surge in prices, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.



Still, the USDA reported that exporters sold 184,100 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico and a total of 147,320 tonnes to unknown buyers.



French soft wheat shipments outside the European Union last month were the lowest for an April in nine years, as exports to Morocco and Algeria eased, Refinitiv data showed.



Soft wheat exports to destinations outside the EU-27 and Britain totalled 665,600 tonnes in April, the 10th month of the 2020/21 season, an initial estimate based on Refinitiv loading data showed.



Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, traders said. 



(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

grains

Corn jumps 2% to 2013 high as global supplies tighten

TOKYO, May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; World shares and commodity prices held firm on Thursday as investors switched to cyclicals amid hopes of a strong economic recovery, but drugmakers&#8217; shares came under pressure after Washington backed waiving patents for COVID-19 vaccines.



MSCI&#8217;s broadest gauge of world stocks, ACWI, was up slightly and European stocks are expected to open flat with both Euro Stoxx futures and Britain&#8217;s FTSE futures little changed.



Japan&#8217;s Nikkei jumped 1.8% as it reopened after a five-day holiday.



But MSCI&#8217;s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.15% as Chinese shares, also resuming trade for the first time since last week, wobbled. The CSI300 fell 1.3%, led by falls in biotech firms.



China&#8217;s healthcare share index dropped more than 4% after U.S. President Joe Biden threw his support behind waiving intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines.



Biden&#8217;s move hit U.S. vaccine makers, too, including Moderna , but Wall Street was supported overall by gains in energy and other cyclical shares.



Dow hit a record high overnight, having risen 0.29%, while the S&amp;P 500 added 0.07%.



&#8220;This year, both the U.S. and Chinese economy could grow 6% or more. If the world&#8217;s two biggest economies are growing that much, clearly that&#8217;s positive,&#8221; said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.



Against this backdrop, commodity prices are riding high, with copper flirting with 10-year peaks.



Oil prices extended gains to edge near their March tops as crude stockpiles in the United States, the world&#8217;s largest oil consumer, fell more sharply than expected.



U.S. crude futures stood at $65.65 per barrel, little changed on the day but just below Wednesday&#8217;s two-month high of $66.76.



As agricultural products such as corn, soybeans and wheat, have gained sharply in recent weeks, Thomson Reuters CRB index has risen to its highest level since 2015, having gained more than 21% so far this year.



BONDS AND CURRENCIES



Higher commodity prices are fuelling inflation expectations in the bond market.



The U.S. breakeven inflation rate, or inflation expectations calculated from the yield gap between inflation-linked bonds and conventional bonds, rose to as high as 2.48% overnight.



But the U.S. nominal bond yields held relatively stable, with the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield little changed at 1.584% .



&#8220;Bonds were supported partly because the pace of vaccinations has slowed in the States and as real-money investors are starting to buy,&#8221; said Naokazu Koshimizu, economist at Nomura Securities.



&#8220;The rise in inflation is also driven more by supply constraints than demand, which is why we are seeing rising inflation expectations and a fall in nominal yields,&#8221; he added.



In currencies, the Australian dollar briefly dropped as much as 0.6% after China said it was indefinitely suspending all activity under a China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue, the latest setback for their strained relations.



It last stood down 0.15% at $0.7734



The British pound was flat at $1.3910 ahead of a central bank policy review.



The Bank of England could slow the pace of its bond buying to allow its quantitative easing programme to last until the end of the year, as it could reach the cap by September at the current pace of buying.



Investors also looked to Scotland&#8217;s election that could trigger a showdown with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over a new independence referendum.



Other currencies were little moved, with the focus on Friday&#8217;s U.S. monthly jobs report which is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs last month.



The euro stood flat at $1.2004 while the yen changed hands at 109.35 per dollar.



(Editing by Himani Sarkar and Kim Coghill)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

World shares resilient, drugmakers hit by Biden’s move on vaccines

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/104668861-RTS1BCMP-copper.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-403339" width="839" height="472" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/104668861-RTS1BCMP-copper.jpg 740w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/104668861-RTS1BCMP-copper-300x169.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 839px) 100vw, 839px" /><figcaption>worker labels copper products at Truong Phu cable factory in northern Hai Duong province, outside Hanoi, Vietnam August 11, 2017. Kham | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



The world risks “running out of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@HG.1">copper</a>” amid widening supply and demand deficits, according to Bank of America, and prices could hit $20,000 per metric ton by 2025.



In a note Tuesday,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BAC" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bank of America</a>&nbsp;commodity strategist Michael Widmer highlighted inventories measured in tons are now at levels seen 15 years ago, implying that stocks currently cover just over three weeks of demand. This comes as the global economy is beginning to open up and reflate.



“Linked to that, we forecast copper market deficits, and further inventory declines, this year and next,” Widmer said.



“With (London Metal Exchange) inventories close to the pinch-point at which time spreads can move violently, there is a risk backwardation, driven by a rally in nearby prices, may increase.”



Backwardation is when an underlying asset is trading at a higher price than the futures market for that asset.



Widmer also highlighted that a rise in volatility resulting from falling inventories was not without precedent, since nickel shortages in LME warehouses in 2006/7 drove nickel prices more than 300% higher.



Given the fundamental environment and the depleted inventories, Widmer suggested that copper may spike to $13,000/t in the coming years after notching&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/copper-hits-a-decade-high-traders-on-possible-economic-effect.html">$10,000 last week for the first time in a decade</a>.



Copper prices stood at just under $4.54 per pound as of 5:30 a.m. London time on Thursday, up 30% for the session.



After deficits in 2021 and 2022, BofA expects the copper market to rebalance in 2023 and 2024 before fresh shortfalls and a further draw down on inventories kick in from 2025.



“In our view, scrap supply is critical and our analysis suggests that scrap usage at smelters/refiners could increase from around 4,200t in 2016 to 6,700t by 2025,” Widmer said.



“If our expectation of increased supply in secondary material, a non-transparent market, did not materialize, inventories could deplete within the next three years, giving rise to even more violent price swings that could take the red metal above $20,000/t ($9.07/lb).”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-new-oil">‘The new oil’</h3>



Along with the broader economic recovery, demand for copper is also being boosted by its vital role in a number of rapidly growing industrial sectors, such as electric vehicle batteries and semiconductor wiring.



David Neuhauser, founder and managing director of U.S. hedge fund Livermore Partners, told CNBC on Wednesday that metals were receiving a general tailwind from a weaker dollar and increasing moves toward green infrastructure.



Commodity prices rose 3% in April, taking the global index up 80% since April 2020, and HSBC commodity analysts highlighted in a note Wednesday that demand for copper is being supported by investment in electrification as emission reduction strategies are further bolstered by policymakers.



Copper remains Livermore’s favorite commodity at present, Neuhauser said.



“I think copper is the new oil and I think copper, for the next five to 10 years, is going to look tremendous with the potential for $20,000 per metric ton,” Neuhauser said.



“We think there are some very solid small cap companies that have massive production potential, and valuations are attractive, and Livermore could make great return on investment.”

104668861-RTS1BCMP-copper

Copper is ‘the new oil’ and low inventories could push it to $20,000 per ton, analysts say

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) &#8211; Copper prices rose to a fresh 10-year high on Wednesday, topping $10,000 per tonne for only the second time this decade as the world&#8217;s largest economies showed signs of recovery, boosting demand hopes.



Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.2% at $9,990.50 a tonne in official trading after touching $10,040 in early trade.



That was copper&#8217;s highest level since Feb. 2011 when the contract hit a record high of $10,190 a tonne. It hit $10,008 last Thursday.



&#8220;There’s a lot of macro forces aligned that (are) together pushing (up) the whole commodities sector,&#8221; said ING analyst Wenyu Yao.



&#8220;Investors have been increasingly focusing on reopening and recovery, and especially the U.S. economic outlook is getting better.&#8221;



The U.S. economy is growing at its fastest rate since the early 1980s, while British manufacturing activity grew at its quickest in almost 27 years last month.



Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen however questioned whether immediate copper demand was enough to justify prices at these levels, warning that consumers could pause buying while they adjust to the higher prices.



POSITIONING: Speculators raised their bets on prices climbing for a ninth straight day, with the net long in LME copper at an almost two-month high of 41.7% of open interest, according to brokerage Marex Spectron.



Net long positions on the CME&#8217;s copper contract rose to 55,515 contracts, the highest since March 9, according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report.



INVENTORIES: LME copper stocks fell to 132,775 tonnes, their lowest since March 29.



CHILE: Chile&#8217;s National Mining Society has warned that a royalty project being discussed in Congress proposes levels of taxation that are &#8220;akin to expropriation&#8221; and would paralyze investment in the world&#8217;s top producer of copper.



SMELTING: The copper price rally spurred a rebound in global smelting activity in April from the lowest levels in at least five years in the previous month, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed.



OTHER PRICES: LME aluminium gained 0.5% to $2,439.50 a tonne, zinc was down 0.5% to $2,952, and lead inched up 0.1% to $2,201.50 while tin and nickel rose 2% to $29,550 and $18,013 respectively. 



(Reporting by Zandi Shabalala; editing by Jan Harvey and Jason Neely)

ShawnHempel_AdobeStock_copperbars_012621

Copper hits 10-year high, eyes record levels on demand hopes

NEW YORK/LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) &#8211; World equity indexes slid and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as low trading volume, a lull in economic news and lack of a catalyst to lift stocks higher sparked a sell-off by investors worried further upside in markets is limited.



The tech-rich Nasdaq fell 1.9%, its biggest single-day decline in almost six weeks, while the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to a low of 1.557%, a slide that normally would push technology shares higher on lower financing costs.



A surge in commodity prices bucked the downdraft in equity markets, helping spur talk of rising inflation, while the dollar rose after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said interest rates may need to rise to prevent overheating the U.S. economy. Yellen later downplayed inflation and rate hike concerns.



The Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB Index traded near three-year highs as commodities rallied on investor bets that demand will grow as economies reopen.



Investors sold the high-flying tech-related stocks that have doubled the value of the Nasdaq since March 2020 lows, and bought government debt, pushing yields lower.



Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp led the decline on Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500.



&#8220;There&#8217;s not a lot of conviction among traders of which way markets should go from here,&#8221; said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital. &#8220;We&#8217;ve priced in a great amount of reopening optimism.&#8221;



MSCI&#8217;s benchmark for global equity markets fell 0.81% to close at 697.60.



On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06%, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.67% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.88%.



Economically sensitive value stocks eked out a gain of 0.04%, outperforming a 1.6% slide in growth stocks. After Tuesday&#8217;s slide, the Russell 1000 Value Total Return Index has nearly tripled the performance of the Russell 1000 Growth Total Return Index so far this year.



European tech stocks plunged 3.8% in their worst day since late October. Germany&#8217;s bourse shed 2.5%, the most in Europe, due to its high composition of tech stocks.



Chipmaker Infineon fell 5.9%, among the top drags on the German index, after the company said automotive supply constraints would only ease in the second half, with lost volumes likely to be made up in 2022.



Skepticism crept into the Treasury market that upcoming economic data might not be as stellar as the market has priced in, keeping a damper on longer-dated bonds. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last yielded 1.587%.



In currency markets, the dollar clawed back some ground to partially unwind last month&#8217;s long decline as investors squared up positions ahead of monthly payrolls data due at the end of the week.



The dollar index rose 0.289%, with the euro down 0.36% at $1.2018. The Japanese yen weakened 0.19% versus the greenback at 109.28 per dollar.



Signs that the world&#8217;s major central banks remain in no rush to reel in their massive stimulus programs kept 10-year U.S. Treasury yields under 1.65% and Germany&#8217;s Bund yields below 13-month highs.



Australia&#8217;s central bank left its key interest rates at near zero overnight for a fifth straight meeting and pledged to keep its policies super-supportive for a prolonged period.



Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX200 had risen 0.6% and Hong Kong had climbed 0.7% in thin Asian trading due to holidays in both China and Japan.



Cryptocurrency ether powered to another record peak, nearing $3,500, before paring gains to close 0.8% lower.



Oil prices rose after more U.S. states eased pandemic-related lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travelers, though soaring COVID-19 cases in India capped gains.



Brent crude futures settled up $1.32 at $68.88 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose $1.20 to settle at $65.69 a barrel.



Gold fell 1% on Yellen&#8217;s remarks as rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing precious metal.



U.S. gold futures settled down 0.9% at $1,776 an ounce.



(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by John Stonestreet, Chizu Nomiyama and Jonathan Oatis)

Stock market report. 3d illustration

Shares slide as Nasdaq tumbles, dollar edges higher

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-403190" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/shipping-containers-1096829-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Photo: via SnappyGoat.com</figcaption></figure>



The ancient trade routes of East Africa’s Swahili Coast – a 3,000 kilometre littoral stretching from Somalia in the north to Northern Mozambique in the south – is riddled with illegal trading. These networks are connected to political instability in the wider region as well as the emergence of extremist movements which threaten to undermine and corrode the region’s fragile institutions.



The seizure of the town of Palma in the extreme north of Mozambique by armed groups associated with the Islamist Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) in March has galvanised the world’s attention. Although the event seemed to come as a shock to governments of the region, analysts of the illegal trade have warned of the area’s vulnerability for several years. In 2018, a report by the United Nations sponsored Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI) revealed that a substantial <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TGIATOC-North-Mozambique-Report-WEB.pdf">narcotic-trafficking</a> economy had emerged. Heroin, originally produced in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and often carried on ocean-going dhows, is routed through the area on its way to the wider global market.



But heroin is only one of many illicit trade items and the Palma incident is but one example of a much wider phenomenon. A <a href="https://www.counterextremism.com/sites/default/files/unholy-alliance-report-032921.pdf">recent report</a> by the distinguished scholar and former British diplomat, Sir Ivor Roberts, contains more detail of illicit trade and the way it fuels political extremism and crime across the entire wider region. Among items being traded from Somalia to Mozambique as well as inland (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, the Central African Republic [CAR] and the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC]) are wildlife products, including ivory and rhino horn, small arms, narcotics, gold, gemstones and valuable ‘green minerals’ such as coltan, illegally logged wood, cigarettes, alcohol, counterfeit goods, sugar and human beings.



Roberts describes the scale of the problem as ‘staggering’. He writes that a recent survey in Kenya determined that 40 percent of consumer products, including cigarettes and alcohol, are illicit. As much as 70 percent of the alcohol sold in Uganda is thought to be illegal and a billion illegal cigarettes are sold in the region each year. Counterfeit goods alone rob Kenya of US$900 million a year, Roberts estimates.



The deepest implication of the problem is the power the illicit trade gives to those who carry it out and the extent to which this undermines legitimate governance. The <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=raO8jHBdDhYC&amp;redir_esc=y">blood diamond</a> financed civil wars in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Angola, the DRC and elsewhere on the continent in the 1990s showed a close link between the proliferation of illicit trade, political instability and violence, irrespective of whether the participants have political agendas or not.&nbsp;



Among the political players who Roberts identifies as being financed by the illicit trade along the Swahili Coast are Al Shabaab who are responsible for numerous terror assaults in Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania, the Lord’s Resistance Army in Northern Uganda, Janajaweed in Sudan, the rump of Renamo in Mozambique and ASWJ in southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique. But attaching names and labels to the widespread phenomenon can be misleading. Much more representative are the so-called militia groups of the Eastern DRC and CAR which illustrates the point that the illicit trades are socially embedded and associated with dynamics which run in parallel (and in competition) with formal state institutions.



In the CAR for instance, at least 14 different armed groupings are active. The country is so unstable that the state’s writ runs hardly further than the capital, Bangui, and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Situation%20Report%20-%20Central%20African%20Republic%20-%205%20Mar%202021.pdf">one-in-four</a> Central Africans are internally displaced or refugees abroad. The <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/illicit-flows-car-conflict/">armed groupings</a> trade in diamonds, small arms, human trafficking, illegal logging and wildlife products and exercise state-like powers, including informal taxation, in the areas they control. Sexual violence is reported to be endemic.



Roberts is clear on the issue. The region is being ‘picked apart’ by extremist groups, organised crime syndicates and urban gangs, <a href="https://www.newtimes.co.rw/opinions/illicit-trade-and-fight-east-africas-future">he writes</a>. The implication is that political extremism cannot be viewed separately from its criminal associations. Illicit trade has to be dealt with in parallel to initiatives to counter political extremism.



The experience of the regional power, Kenya, illustrates how pervasive the problem is and how difficult it is to control. Kenya has repeatedly acted against illegal trade for more than <a href="https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/IPI-Termites-at-Work-A-Report-on-Transnational-Organized-Crime-and-State-Erosion-in-Kenya.pdf">30 years</a> but the problem simply pops up elsewhere. Kenya has a stronger state than any of its neighbours and has established a coast guard and an Anti-Counterfeit Authority. The government has repeatedly clamped down on illicit trade via Mombasa harbour and <a href="https://www.tralac.org/news/article/12732-cargo-scanners-give-kra-sh131m-more-daily-at-the-ports.html">Jomo Kenyatta Airport</a> in Nairobi. In 2016, the world’s largest bust of counterfeit pharmaceuticals was made in Kenya. However, no matter what action the Kenyan state takes, illicit traders circumvent it, moving goods through other entry points along the Swahili Coast, in cooperation with existing criminal networks, especially urban gangs, or corrupt officials and politicians.



The fight against the illicit tobacco industry in Kenya illustrates the regional dimensions of the problem. Kenya adopted the WHO Illicit Tobacco Trade Protocol in 2020, the only East African country to do so and a signal of how serious the government is about combatting illicit trade. But the country’s 20-year campaign against the trade – including the closure of loopholes which facilitated illegal imports, round tripping and underdeclared values in 2003 – is undermined by regional dynamics. The actions of criminal actors in Uganda, where excise taxes are notable lower and factory inspections virtually non-existent, has seen an increased stream of illicit product entering Kenya once again.



Illicit tobacco is often treated (by the international media) as a less significant problem than higher profile illicit trade in people, narcotics and wildlife products. But it has been a primary source of funding for terror groups ranging from the Irish Republican Army to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Inland of the Swahili coast, it financed the Forces Armées du Peuple Congolais (FAPC) insurgency in the DRC in the early 2000s. FAPC leaders were <a href="https://www.refworld.org/docid/4d957302c.html">convicted</a> of ‘rape, pillaging, destruction of schools and abduction of children’ in 2011.



The Swahili Coast and its hinterland is assailed by political instability. But it is now clear that the problem is not simply underdevelopment and political radicalism, but that illicit trade is an integral part of the problem. Solutions will have to address this too.



David Christianson has been a political scientist, NGO researcher and development banker. He entered business journalism in 1997 and was Diageo African Business Writer of the Year in 2006.

shipping-containers-1096829

How illicit Trade destabilises the Swahili Coast

HONG KONG, May 4 (Reuters) &#8211; Asian share markets were mostly positive Tuesday as investors looked to signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as major economies around the world reopen.



MSCI&#8217;s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was just 0.13% higher in the the Asian afternoon session in trading thinned by holidays in China and Japan. Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng Index was trading 0.33% higher at 28,441.95.



Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX200 edged up 0.44% to 7,059.4 as the Reserve Bank met expectations and kept the official cash rate target at 0.1%.



In a statement, the bank signalled the cash rate would stay ultra low until least 2024 and upgraded its growth forecast for the Australian economy from 3.5% to 4.75% over 2021.



In early futures trade, FTSE Index was pointing to a 0.3% gain at the open, Eurostoxx 50 futures were flat and S&amp;P 500 futures indicated a 0.24% decline for the US.



The mildly positive tone in Asia was broadly in line with that on Wall Street overnight, where upbeat earnings, news of cities reopening and a dovish Federal Reserve helped offset a disappointing report on manufacturing activity.



While that combination is also causing investors to position for stocks to defy the customary &#8216;Sell in May&#8217; adage, they have turned cautious ahead of key U.S. services data due on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday.



&#8220;Dovish tones from the Fed and an extraordinary fiscal stimulus from the Biden Administration are fuelling optimism that the U.S. economy will strengthen further during 2021,&#8221; said Stephen Koukoulas, managing director at the Canberra-based Market Economics.



&#8220;Attention is also moving the U.S. payrolls data this Friday where close to 1 million new payrolls and an unemployment rate back down towards 5.6% is set to reinforce this upbeat sentiment.&#8221;



Taiwan was an exception in the Asian region, with stocks there down by 1.7% after initially falling by up to 3.3% earlier in the day.



The index is up about 15% for the year, which ranks it as one of the strongest performing markets in the region.



In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng&#8217;s positive performance on Tuesday came after the index shed nearly 1000 points over the past two sessions.



&#8220;The &#8216;Sell in May&#8217; story is taking place in Hong Kong, we are not seeing investors chasing the market,&#8221; Jack Siu, Credit Suisse&#8217;s greater China chief investment officer said.



&#8220;For the new economy stocks, there is a lack of interest because there are concerns about what the new regulations will be and what impact that will have on those companies. Those uncertainties are putting investors on the sidelines.&#8221;



Japan and mainland China&#8217;s markets remained closed on Tuesday for holidays dampening trading volumes across the region.



Monday&#8217;s session on Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average end 0.7% higher at 34,113.23 points, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.27% to 4,192.66 with most of the gains concentrated in industrial and commodity shares.



The Nasdaq Composite dipped as technology stocks lagged sectors investors saw as beneficiaries of a pandemic recovery.



Energy stocks also gained on the back of higher oil prices.



Later in the Asian session, Brent crude was down 0.2% at $67.38 while U.S. light crude was off 0.31% at $64.56. Both were trading higher after a positive lead from the US overnight.



(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Hong Kong; additional reporting by Roger Tung in Taipei; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Asian share markets edge higher on pandemic recovery signals

May 3 (Reuters) &#8211; Most emerging market currencies weakened on Monday as the dollar firmed at the start of a week packed with key U.S. economic data, while a slightly lower-than-forecast inflation reading helped support the Turkish lira.



The lira inched higher to trade at 8.29 per dollar after falling to 8.33 earlier in the session.



Trading volumes were thin across the board, however, with London markets closed for a public holiday.



Data showed Turkish annual inflation climbed to 17.14% in April, its highest level in nearly two years, driven by a sagging lira and pricy commodity imports. Still, the battered currency found relief as the numbers came in lower than a Reuters poll forecast of 17.3%.



The central bank estimated last week that inflation would peak in April and decline to 12.2% by year-end. Policymakers will meet on Thursday, and market participants expect them to keep the policy rate unchanged at 19% and start cutting in third quarter.



&#8220;Another steady CBRT meeting outcome may drag USD-TRY back towards 8.20, but this would create a buying-on-dips opportunity, in our view, as we expect a 400bp easing this year in Turkey, starting in July,&#8221; Unicredit analysts wrote in a note.



Russia&#8217;s rouble fell 0.4% to 75.44 versus the dollar, tracking weaker oil prices as a deadly second wave of coronavirus infections in the world&#8217;s third largest consumer of oil, India, raised demand concerns.



Trading activity in Russia is likely to be thinner than usual for the rest of the week after President Vladimir Putin declared May 4-7 non-working. However, the country&#8217;s two largest stock exchanges will remain open and the central bank will carry out its regular market.



The MSCI&#8217;s wider index of EM currencies slipped to a one-week low earlier in the session as the dollar clung to a recent bounce ahead of a raft of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM manufacturing survey and April payroll numbers.



An index of EM equities slipped 0.6% as Asian heavyweights including China and Thailand were closed and Russian stocks tumbled.



For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX



For TOP NEWS across emerging markets



For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see



For TURKISH market report, see



For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru)

Turkey’s lira steady after inflation data, rouble follows oil lower

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CHTJRHP645P7PG6NBY3BCZTPUY-820x587.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-403058" width="838" height="600" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CHTJRHP645P7PG6NBY3BCZTPUY-820x587.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CHTJRHP645P7PG6NBY3BCZTPUY-300x215.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CHTJRHP645P7PG6NBY3BCZTPUY-768x550.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CHTJRHP645P7PG6NBY3BCZTPUY.jpg 960w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 838px) 100vw, 838px" /><figcaption>Phot: via Reuters</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, May 3 (Reuters) &#8211; The $2.2 trillion global Islamic finance industry is expected to grow 10%-12% over 2021-2022 due to increased Islamic bond issuance and a modest economic recovery in the main Islamic finance markets, S&amp;P Global Ratings said.



The industry continued to grow last year despite the COVID-19 pandemic, although at a lower pace than in 2019, with global Islamic assets expanding by 10.6% in 2020 against growth of 17.3% the previous year.



Islamic finance, which bans interest payments and pure monetary speculation, has been on the rise for many years across markets in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, but it remains a fragmented industry with uneven implementation of its rules.



&#8220;Over the next 12 months, we could see progress on a unified global legal and regulatory framework for Islamic finance … we believe that such a framework could help resolve the lack of standardisation and harmonisation that the Islamic finance industry has faced for decades,&#8221; S&amp;P said on Monday.



The industry is expected to receive some support in the coming two years in Saudi Arabia, where mortgages and corporate lending are expected to rise as the country pushes ahead with plans to diversify the economy.



Investments in Qatar for the 2022 soccer World Cup and the Expo event in Dubai later this year are also expected to support growth.



The ratings agency forecast global issuance of Islamic bonds, or sukuk, to reach $140-155 billion this year, up from roughly $140 billion in 2020, thanks to abundant liquidity and sustained financing needs among corporates and governments.



S&amp;P also highlighted that the full impact of the coronavirus crisis has yet to materialise and more requests for sukuk restructurings and maturity extensions, as well as higher default rates, are expected this year.



&#8220;We see pressure on real estate developers, given the drop in real estate prices in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and building risks in the commercial real estate sector,&#8221; S&amp;P said.



&#8220;Similarly, companies related to aviation, tourism, travel, and hospitality &#8211; sectors that have been severely hit by COVID-19 &#8211; will take several quarters to recover to prepandemic levels.&#8221;



(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia. Editing by Jane Merriman)

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Global Islamic finance forecast to grow as main markets recover – S&P

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) &#8211; Oil held close to $67 a barrel on Monday as optimism over a strong demand rebound in countries including the United States and China balanced concern about a surge in India&#8217;s coronavirus cases and higher OPEC+ oil supply.



India on Monday reported more than 300,000 new coronavirus cases for a 12th straight day. The new wave of the virus has already led to a drop in fuel sales in the world&#8217;s third-largest consumer in April.



Brent crude rose 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $66.86 a barrel by 0920 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.83.



&#8220;There is no doubt that India plays a major role when we talk about oil demand,&#8221; said Avatrade analyst Naeem Aslam. &#8220;As for the rest of the world, such as China, Europe, the Middle East and the U.S., the coronavirus vaccination process continues to roll on and we see tremendous progress.&#8221;



The U.S. and China are the world&#8217;s top two oil consumers. As of Sunday morning, the United States had administered 245,591,469 vaccine doses. China had given 275.34 million doses as of Sunday.



Brent has rallied almost 30% this year, recovering from last year&#8217;s historic lows thanks to record supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+.



&#8220;The technical picture continues to suggest that oil&#8217;s price recovery remains intact,&#8221; said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA.



Higher supply limited oil&#8217;s gains, however. OPEC+ decided last week to stick to a plan to boost supply slightly from May 1 and OPEC&#8217;s production climbed in April, led by a boost from Iran, a Reuters survey found.



In another development that could allow a further boost in Iranian supply, Tehran and world powers are holding talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. 



(Additional reporting by Florence Tan Editing by David Goodman)

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Oil holds near $67 as demand hopes balance India concern

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) &#8211; European shares gained on Monday as investors bullish about the global economic recovery looked ahead to a busy week for U.S. economic data that is expected to underline the strength of the rebound.



With China, Japan and Britain closed for public holidays, volumes were thin and Asian shares got off to a slow start, with most markets slipping into the red.



But investors&#8217; optimistic mood, enhanced by a strong run of corporate earnings the past two weeks, has extended into May in Europe.



The Euro STOXX index rose 0.68% in early trading, while the German DAX gained 0.7% and France&#8217;s CAC 40 0.61%.



Wall Street futures were higher, pointing to yet more gains after stock markets notched up another round of record highs last week.



The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was flat on the day and below record highs, however, as losses in Asia offset the gains in Europe.



Underpinning investors&#8217; enthusiasm for riskier assets is the sense that the global economy is about to boom as countries come out of lockdowns and consumers and businesses unleash some of their excess savings built up over the past year.



German retail sales data for March came in far better than expected, underlying that a U.S.-led economic rebound is now gaining traction elsewhere.



Recent business surveys have also pointed to soaring confidence about the recovery, although some economists think businesses may be getting ahead of themselves and influenced more by the success and speed of COVID-19 vaccination rollouts.



&#8220;The data has been unrealistically strong in recent months &#8211; while the underlying economy is performing very well, manufacturing growth is not quite at the stratospheric levels the surveys imply,&#8221; said UBS economist Paul Donovan.



&#8220;Newsflow about the vaccination cycle may be more important in dictating answers to sentiment surveys than actual economic activity.&#8221;



A busy week for U.S. economic data is expected to show resounding strength, particularly for the ISM manufacturing survey and April payrolls. Forecasts are that 978,000 jobs were created in the month as consumers spent their stimulus money and the economy opened up more.



Analysts at NatWest Markets, for instance, see U.S. payrolls surging by 1.25 million in April with unemployment diving to 5.2%, from 6% in March.



Such gains could stir speculation of a tapering in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, though Chair Jerome Powell has shown every sign of staying patient on policy.



Powell is due to speak later on Monday and will be followed by a raft of Fed officials this week. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan caused a stir on Friday by calling for beginning the conversation about tapering.



Powell&#8217;s patience has helped limit selling pressure in Treasuries, yet 10-year yields still ended last week with a rise of 6 basis points. They were last 1.626%, down marginally on the day.



The rise offered some support to the U.S. dollar, which has been pressured by the rapid expansion of the U.S. budget and trade deficits, a byproduct of the economy&#8217;s outperformance.



The dollar index stood at 91.218 and off a two-month trough of 90.422, though it still ended April with a loss of 2%.



The euro rose 0.2% to $1.2040, having backtracked from a nine-week peak of $1.2149 on Friday.



Cryptocurrency ether scaled a new record high beyond $3,000 as investors bet that it will be of ever greater use in a decentralised future financial system. Its lightning rally &#8211; now up 325% in 2021 &#8211; has eclipsed that of bigger rival bitcoin.



Oil prices ran into profit-taking, having ended last month with gains of 6% to 8%.



Brent was last down 9 cents at $66.67 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 6 cents to $63.52 per barrel.



(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney Editing by Mark Heinrich)

(Photo: Flickr/QuoteInspector.com)

European shares rally as investors begin May in bullish mood

SINGAPORE, April 30 (Reuters) &#8211; Oil prices slipped on Friday, taking a breather after touching their highest in six weeks as concerns of wider lockdowns in India and Brazil to curb the COVID-19 pandemic offset a bullish outlook on summer fuel demand and economic recovery.



Brent crude fell 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.25 a barrel by 0630 GMT, the last day&#8217;s trading for the front-month June contract. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June was at $64.59 a barrel, down 42 cents, or 0.7%.



Prices also came under pressure after China&#8217;s factory activity growth slowed and missed forecasts in April, although a private sector survey showed that Japan&#8217;s factory activity expanded in April at the fastest pace since early 2018.



&#8220;The post-COVID-19 demand recovery is still uneven and the surge in Indian cases serves as a timely reminder that any rally to $70 is too premature,&#8221; Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.



Such a level is likely to be reached only in the third quarter this year, when demand improves materially and destocking ends, they said.



The world&#8217;s third largest oil consumer is in deep crisis, with hospitals and morgues overwhelmed, as the number of COVID-19 cases topped 18 million on Thursday.



The surging infection numbers and renewed mobility-restricting measures have &#8220;forced us to revise down Indian gasoline and gasoil demand&#8221; estimates for 2021, said JBC Energy&#8217;s senior analyst Eugene Lindell.



Brent is on track to gain roughly 8% in April while WTI could see gains of nearly 10% for the month.



That would be their fifth monthly gain in six months as global demand has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels on the back of fiscal stimulus and the easing of virus lockdowns in some countries, while production cuts from OPEC and their allies including Russia eased crude oil oversupply.



The COVID-19 vaccine rollout and the lifting of lockdowns in several cities in the United States and Britain are also restoring confidence in travel, lifting fuel demand, ANZ analysts said.



The upcoming Labour Day holiday in China would also boost fuel demand at the world&#8217;s second largest oil consumer.



&#8220;This renewed optimism is overshadowing headwinds in India, where a second wave of infections of COVID-19 are resulting in new travel restrictions being put in place,&#8221; ANZ analysts said in a note. 



(Reporting by Florence Tan; Editig by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

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Oil prices slip from six-week high as India’s demand worries weigh

April 30 (Reuters) &#8211; Gold prices dipped on Friday, set for their worst week in a month, as U.S. Treasury yields gained on strong economic data and dented the non-yielding metal&#8217;s appeal, while palladium came off the record high marked in the previous session. 



Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,770.41 per ounce by 0626 GMT, dropped 0.3% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,769.00 per ounce. 



Despite the decline, bullion was poised for its first monthly gain of the year. 



Data showed late Thursday that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter as fiscal stimulus fuelled consumer spending. 



&#8220;This string of consecutively strong U.S. economic data is weighing on gold,&#8221; said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, adding that people would rather book profits on month-end after a decent run-up in gold.



&#8220;Gold still remains bid, it is just not a strong hand right now, because of the month-end rebalancing.&#8221; 



Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near their highest in more than two weeks, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 



Earlier this week, the Fed held interest rates and its bond-buying program steady. 



&#8220;Ongoing strength in domestic data should lead to an incrementally hawkish turn in Fed guidance over the coming months,&#8221; UBS analysts said in a note. 



Higher U.S. real rates will likely trigger further ETF outflows, UBS said, adding that they expect bullion to fall to $1,600 per ounce by year-end. 



Palladium rose 0.2% to $2,958.19 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $2,981.99 on Thursday. It was on track to post its third consecutive weekly and monthly gain as well. 



Silver fell 0.6% to $25.92 per ounce, though was poised for an over 6% monthly gain &#8211; its biggest since last December. 



Platinum was up 0.3% at $1,201.69. 



(Reporting by Shreyansi Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

gold-is-money-2430051_1280

Gold prices face worst week in month on strong U.S. data

TOKYO, April 30 (Reuters) &#8211; World stocks held near a record high as strong U.S. economic data, robust corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s commitment to continue supporting the economy fuelled investors&#8217; appetite for risk.



Asian stocks had less luck, with MSCI&#8217;s ex-Japan index losing 0.6%, following a softer-than-expected survey on China&#8217;s manufacturing.



&#8220;China&#8217;s economic recovery in January-March was strong but there are some doubts over whether you can take it at face value,&#8221; said Wang Shenshen, senior strategist at Mizuho Securities.



Chinese tech giant shares listed in Hong Kong also buckled as Beijing summoned 13 internet platforms to order them to strengthen compliance with regulations, weighing on the Hang Seng index.



Mainland Chinese shares lost 0.25% while Japan&#8217;s Nikkei shed 0.7% on position adjustments ahead of a long weekend. Both markets will be closed through Wednesday.



European stocks are expected to dip slightly, with euro Stoxx futures down 0.1% and Britain&#8217;s FTSE futures trading 0.2% lower.



MSCI&#8217;s broadest gauge of world stocks covering 50 markets, ACWI, however, was little changed and stood close to a record peak touched the previous day and up 5.1% on the month.



On Wall Street, the S&amp;P 500 also closed at an all-time high while the Nasdaq Composite hit a intraday record before paring some gains.



For both ACWI and S&amp;P500, analysts are now expecting the earnings in the next 12 months to recover to above their pre-pandemic levels.



With just over a half of S&amp;P500 companies reporting earnings, about 87% beat market expectations, according to Refinitiv, the highest level in recent years.



Amazon was the latest to report stellar results late on Thursday, lifting its shares by 2.4% in after-hours trade.



Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, fuelled by massive government aid to households and businesses.



New York City aims to &#8220;fully reopen&#8221; on July 1 after more than a year of closures and capacity restrictions, Mayor Bill de Blasio said, buttressing hopes for recovery in the battered service sector, an important source of employment.



That came against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s reassurance on Wednesday that it is not time yet to begin discussing any change in its easy monetary policy.



The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 1.690%, its highest in more than two weeks, and last stood at 1.640%.



&#8220;For now we are likely to see strong economic data from the U.S. and that means we need to be wary of further rise in U.S. bond yields, and the dollar/yen,&#8221; said Toshiya Nakamura, chief manager of forex trading at Mitsubishi Trust Bank.



In the currency market, the yen was listless at 108.79 per dollar, having hit a two-week low of 109.22 as higher U.S. bond yields helped the dollar.



The positive risk mood saw the euro extending its bull run to a two-month high of $1.2150 in the previous session and it last stood at $1.2115. With 3.3% gains so far this month, it is on course for its biggest monthly rise in 9 months.



The Canadian dollar extended its gains to a three-year high of C$1.22715 per U.S. unit, boosted by the Bank of Canada&#8217;s tapering of its bond-buying programme and higher commodities including oil and lumber.



Oil prices took a breather after hitting six-week highs on strong U.S. economic data.



Brent slipped 0.8% to $68.00 per barrel, after having hit a high of $68.95 on Thursday while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased 0.9% to $64.41 per barrel.



&#8220;Strong U.S. data is supporting the market. But on the other hand, given that oil producers have capacities to boost outputs further, there will be resistances around $65 for WTI and $70 for Brent,&#8221; said Tatsufumi Okoshi, senior commodity strategist at Nomura Securities.



(Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Stock market exchange graph price drop with red numbers investment lose of business financial digital background – Candle stick charts stock crash crisis fall risk decreasing arrow down trend sell

World shares near record high on Fed, earnings, but Asia slips

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) &#8211; Global shares extended gains on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve said it was too early to consider rolling back emergency support for the economy and U.S. President Joe Biden proposed a $1.8 trillion stimulus package.



Strong U.S. economic data also provided impetus to equity markets, sparking optimism over the recovery prospects for the world&#8217;s biggest economy.



MSCI&#8217;s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.51%.



The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.17%



U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, fuelled by massive government aid to households and businesses, charting the course for what is expected will be the strongest performance this year in nearly four decades.



&#8220;Assuming that COVID variants remain contained, the second quarter is set for a further acceleration in growth as the re-openings continue,&#8221; said Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 142.38 points, or 0.42%, to 33,962.76, the S&amp;P 500 gained 29.08 points, or 0.70%, to 4,212.26 and the Nasdaq Composite added 101.72 points, or 0.72%, to 14,152.75.



Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 15/32 in price to yield 1.6735%, from 1.62% late on Wednesday.



Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that &#8220;it is not time yet&#8221; to begin discussing any change in policy after the U.S. central bank left interest rates and its bond-buying programme unchanged, despite taking a more optimistic view of the country&#8217;s economic recovery.



The Fed&#8217;s stance, strong U.S. corporate earnings and the notion that Biden is going big on infrastructure were all supportive for markets, said François Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.



&#8220;The Fed confirmed the roadmap for any change in policy, which is a reassuring factor,&#8221; he said. &#8220;It looks like tapering won&#8217;t materialise until 2022 and that has induced weakness for the dollar, is supportive of market liquidity and means less pressure on emerging markets.&#8221;



HUGE STIMULUS



Biden proposed the sweeping new $1.8 trillion plan in a speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, pleading with Republican lawmakers to work with him on divisive issues and to meet the stiff competition posed by China.



He also made an impassioned plea to raise taxes on corporations and rich Americans to help pay for what he called the &#8220;American Families Plan&#8221; in his maiden speech to Congress.



He has also proposed nearly doubling the tax on investment income, which knocked stock markets last week.



Stephen Dover, Franklin Templeton&#8217;s chief market strategist in California, said the effect of the tax package on markets is hard to measure for now.



&#8220;If it passes, I think it will have an impact on individual stocks that will pay a higher rate of tax or companies with founders who will pay capital gains and could sell stocks,&#8221; he said.



MSCI&#8217;s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.31% higher, while Japan&#8217;s Nikkei rose 0.21%.



DOLLAR IN DOLDRUMS



The Fed&#8217;s doggedly dovish outlook and the White House&#8217;s spending plans hampered the dollar, which traded just off nine-week lows.



The dollar index rose 0.182%, with the euro down 0.06% to $1.2116.



Oil prices extended gains on Thursday as bullish forecasts for a demand recovery this summer offset concerns of rising COVID-19 cases in India, Japan and Brazil.



U.S. crude recently rose 1.91% to $65.08 per barrel and Brent was at $68.58, up 1.95% on the day.



Spot gold dropped 0.8% to $1,767.11 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.50% to $1,764.70 an ounce.



(Additional reporting by Kane Wu in Hong Kong, Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai and Scott Murdoch in Hong Kong; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill, Gareth Jones, Chizu Nomiyama, Peter Graff)

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Asian share markets edge higher on pandemic recovery signals

Turkey’s lira steady after inflation data, rouble follows oil lower

Global Islamic finance forecast to grow as main markets recover – S&P

Oil holds near $67 as demand hopes balance India concern

European shares rally as investors begin May in bullish mood

Oil prices slip from six-week high as India’s demand worries weigh

Gold prices face worst week in month on strong U.S. data

World shares near record high on Fed, earnings, but Asia slips

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Economy

Turkish lira slips ahead of central bank meet; Rouble firms

Gold gains as U.S. dollar, bond yields pull back; BoE eyed

Corn jumps 2% to 2013 high as global supplies tighten

World shares resilient, drugmakers hit by Biden’s move on vaccines

Copper is ‘the new oil’ and low inventories could push it to $20,000 per ton, analysts say

Copper hits 10-year high, eyes record levels on demand hopes

Shares slide as Nasdaq tumbles, dollar edges higher

How illicit Trade destabilises the Swahili Coast

Asian share markets edge higher on pandemic recovery signals

Turkey’s lira steady after inflation data, rouble follows oil lower

Global Islamic finance forecast to grow as main markets recover – S&P

Oil holds near $67 as demand hopes balance India concern

European shares rally as investors begin May in bullish mood

Oil prices slip from six-week high as India’s demand worries weigh

Gold prices face worst week in month on strong U.S. data

World shares near record high on Fed, earnings, but Asia slips

World shares boosted by Fed guidance, Biden plan

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