The president calls the chief justice a cheat. A lawmaker denounces the head of the opposition as the devil and says he needs a whipping. The opposition leader accuses the president of making a public speech while drunk.
The gloves are off as Kenya’s ruling party and the opposition battle for votes ahead of new elections, tentatively scheduled for Oct. 17 by the Supreme Court after it voided last month’s presidential results.
Last Friday’s historic decision, the first of its kind in Africa, was welcomed by many as a rare sign of independence from Kenya’s judiciary. It means voters will again have to choose between President Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, 72.
But others feared that after a relatively peaceful election campaign, it could open the door to political instability, reviving memories of the violence that followed a disputed 2007 election when more than 1,200 people died.
Despite being prone to occasional unrest, Kenya is viewed by the United States and other allies as an anchor of stability in the region. East Africa’s richest country per capita and main trade route between the coast and the interior, it has avoided the civil wars that for decades plagued neighbours such as Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda.
“After the verdict by the Supreme Court &#8230; I‘m worried about the upsurge of hate discussion amongst Kenyans,” said Francis Ole Kaparo, the chair of the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, the government body in charge of preventing hate speech.
“As of yesterday morning we were investigating 273 cases of hate-mongering in the social media. I believe the number has probably doubled as we are sitting here,” he told a press conference.
They had less than a third of that number for the whole ten-week campaign period leading up to Aug. 8 elections, he said.
Lawmakers from both sides are under investigation. Opposition lawmaker Paul Ongili Owino, whose Twitter account suspended, is among them. Kaparo did not respond to a message seeking more details.
So is ruling party lawmaker Moses Kuria, who gave a fiery speech on Tuesday denouncing Odinga. Kuria is already facing hate speech charges brought by the commission more than a year ago.
<h3 data-reactid="55">FIERY SPEECHES</h3>
“Raila is a demon. He needs to be whipped by a man and whipped by a woman. Support us, including all parliamentarians, so we can hold him,” Kuria told cheering crowd in a speech in the Kikuyu language peppered with coarse words in Kiambu county on the outskirts of the capital.
“We went and gave birth to a baby (the election). That baby did not die during pregnancy or during delivery. The baby had started to suckle. Raila then came and stuck his finger in the baby’s arse and killed it,” he said during the speech, which was filmed and posted on YouTube.
Later, he posted on his Facebook page, “Manhunt is on tonight for the 200,000 people who did not vote and the 70,000 that voted for that other demon.”
The biggest worry in Kenya is violence taking on an ethnic dimension, as in 2007. President Kenyatta is from the largest of Kenya’s 44 tribes, the Kikuyu, while many of Odinga’s supporters believe his Luo ethnic group has been locked out of power.
Police denied reports, which were posted online and repeated by opposition politicians, that following Kuria’s speech buses had been stopped in the area and passengers questioned about their ethnicity. Reuters was unable to verify the accuracy of those reports.
Raphael Tuju, the secretary-general of the ruling Jubilee party, denounced Kuria’s speech to a local news channel hours after it was reported.
“That is completely out of order and I would not accept that kind of language. I will take it up with him because it is unacceptable,” he said. Tuju did not return calls from Reuters seeking comment on what disciplinary action Kuria might face.
Manoah Esipisu, a presidential spokesman, said “State House does not comment on comments by people like Moses Kuria.”
<h3 data-reactid="64">WAR OF WORDS</h3>
Kuria’s speech came days after Kenyatta repeatedly criticised the Supreme Court for nullifying the August election results.
Official results showed that Kenyatta had won by a comfortable margin of 1.4 million votes, but the court ordered the poll re-run because it said there were “irregularities” by the election board.
In a speech immediately after the ruling, Kenyatta said he disagreed with the ruling but would accept it. But in a public rally later he referred to the judges as “wakora,” a Kiswahili term for a cheat. The next day, Kenyatta promised to “fix” the judiciary.
Esipisu, the spokesman, said the president used the term wakora to criticise a judgement he views as subverting democracy. “Anything that doesn’t express the will of the people is wakora,” Esipisu said.
At another rally, Kenyatta told a crowd that Odinga was a “witchdoctor” because he was insisting on being consulted on the date of new elections.
Odinga told Reuters in an interview that the statements were unpresidential.
“When the anger settles, we should have a sober campaign without insults,” he said in an interview. “These campaigns will be fought on the basis of serious issues, not who can shout loudest, who can insult more than the other person.”
But later he couldn’t resist adding a personal dig at Kenyatta, saying that the president was probably drunk.
“It was irresponsible for the president to address the nation when he appeared to have taken one too many,” he said. “I think it is an insult to the nation.”
Asked about that comment, presidential spokesman Esipisu said: “We don’t comment on rubbish.”
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additional reporting by Humphrey Malalo and Maggie Fick; writing by Katharine Houreld; editing by Peter Graff
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Kenya election campaigns turn personal after court orders fresh polls

Ivan Turok | Human Sciences Research Council
South Africa urgently needs new policy ideas to reverse the alarming increase in poverty among its population. New figures reveal an increase of three million South Africans living in poverty over the last five years. More than half (55%) of the population lives on less than R1,138 (USD$107) a month, up from 53% in 2011.
In a country with 55 million people, 34 million are going without some of the basic necessities, like housing, transport, food, heating and proper clothing. The escalation in hardship and vulnerability reverses the steady progress made since the 1990s.
The poorest have been hit the hardest. One in four citizens survives on less than R531 a month and can’t afford to buy enough food to keep healthy. This proportion has risen from one in five in 2011.
The consequences are plain to see. They include more street begging, homelessness, loan sharks, social discontent, substance misuse and violent crime in many communities. Income is not the only measure of poverty. Progress on education, health and basic living conditions also seems to have stalled.
<h2>Progress setback</h2>
The decline in living standards has occurred despite the extension of social grants to two million more recipients in the past five years, bringing the total number of social grant beneficiaries to 17 million. That is nearly one in three people.
Over the previous decade and a half, extending social grants proved to be an effective way of alleviating hardship. Something has changed.
The global economic slowdown and depressed commodity prices have obviously contributed to the problem. These factors have raised unemployment to record high levels. Domestic political uncertainties, regulatory conflicts and weaknesses in public administration have also dented business confidence and undermined private sector investment.
New ideas are needed to combat poverty and inequality in South Africa. A good place to start is the concept of inclusive growth. This is partly about ensuring more people play an active part in economic, social and political processes. It gives people agency and dignity, and helps to hold institutions to account.
<h2>The limits of redistribution</h2>
Since the 1990s, the government’s approach to poverty has focused on fiscal redistribution. Tax rates increase the more people earn, and the revenue raised has been used to support poorer groups. Social assistance has taken the form of free housing, free education, health care, sanitation, electricity and social grants.
Spending on this “social wage” has more than doubled in real terms (taking inflation into account) over the past decade. It now amounts to 60% of total public spending. South Africa is reputed to have one of the most redistributive fiscal policies (tax and spending) in the world.
Yet, with a sluggish economy, high government debt and new demands for bailouts from state owned enterprises and universities, the ability to pay for this welfare system is severely strained. It will be extremely difficult to raise the value of social support or extend it to more people in the period ahead.
Since South Africa progressed from apartheid to democracy in 1994, there has been an understandable focus on distributional matters. These efforts have taken priority over action to promote broad-based growth, integrated development and overall prosperity.
Too little attention has gone into expanding production, employment creation (outside the public sector) and enlarging the resource base. Among households, too, there has been excessive emphasis on spending, rather than saving and investing in education, skills and household assets. As a result, the economy and society are poorly equipped to cope with shocks.
<h2>Inclusive growth</h2>
“Inclusive growth” is often touted as a way forward. It’s an umbrella concept to get people with different interests to work together and build a new consensus around a shared agenda for the country’s development. But what does it mean in practice?
A central element is creating new and different kinds of economic opportunities and linking them explicitly to social needs. Major investments in technology, infrastructure and other facilities should lower barriers to inclusion and give more people on low incomes a chance to work or develop skills to progress.
Growth can’t be left to market forces and private enterprise. And social development can’t be left to government alone. A more integrated “whole of society” approach is needed to bridge historical divides.
This means business, labour, civil society and different spheres of government all playing a role in combating poverty by going beyond their conventional responsibilities. Organisations should take positive steps to continually open up opportunities and reduce social inequalities. Firms should actively seek out new markets, new suppliers and new sources of labour.
<h2>Local development</h2>
Recent discussions have been limited to national stakeholders. Equivalent local initiatives have been few and far between. Yet a strong and prosperous society cannot be engineered from above.
South Africa needs to build competent institutions at local level too. Common platforms for collaboration are required to harness the energies and share the know-how of people in the cities, towns and villages where they live, work and invest.
A place-based approach means tailoring inclusionary economic policies to local realities and opportunities. Local investments in housing, transport, business property and skills will have a greater impact when they are carefully linked and coordinated.
<h2>Support informality</h2>
Current ambivalent attitudes towards informality are not helping anyone. The informal economy could be a nursery for people to learn valuable skills, a stepping stone to formal jobs, and a seedbed for larger, more competitive businesses.
Many unemployed and destitute adults can’t get the grants available to pensioners, children and the disabled. Yet various forms of bureaucratic red tape obstruct their initiatives to start informal enterprises and “create their own jobs”.
Informal settlements are a route for people to escape rural poverty and gain access to urban job markets. Yet they are neglected, hazardous places threatened by government evictions. Affordable urban housing could instead be a driver of inclusive growth and spatial transformation.
In an economic slump, with tight public finances, the government needs new and different ways of responding to local realities. It should orchestrate efforts throughout society which actively support people’s struggles to get ahead, not just enable them get by.
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This article was first published in The Conversation

Op-Ed: A shift in thinking is needed to counter South Africa’s startling rise in poverty

The Kenyan shilling rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than five months on Friday after hard currency inflows caused banks to reduce their dollar holdings, traders said.
The shilling hit an intra-day high of 102.65/75 per dollar in the first couple of hours of trading, a level it last traded at on March 27, Reuters data showed. It had closed Thursday’s session at 103.10/20.
Kenyan assets, including the shilling, were pummeled last week after the Supreme Court invalidated the re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta and ordered a re-run.
The shares have since started to recover, with the blue chip index on the Nairobi bourse finishing higher in the last two sessions after steep losses following the ruling.
Currency traders said it was not clear where the dollar inflows which triggered the cutting of dollar positions were headed.
“People are trimming their dollar positions,” said a currency trader at a commercial bank.
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Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg
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Kenyan shilling strengthens to highest level since March 2017

Zimbabwean business leaders told President Robert Mugabe on Thursday that his government’s expanding fiscal deficit was unsustainable and that financing it through local borrowing could destabilise the banking sector.
At the first such meeting in 10 years, executives from the mining, manufacturing, banking and farming sectors and representatives of foreign airlines told Mugabe and his cabinet ministers they must exercise fiscal discipline.
“The current levels of the fiscal deficit and the mode of financing, against diminished fiscal revenue sources, is measurably unsustainable,” said Charles Msipa, who represented the business leaders at the meeting in Harare.
“This scenario invariably leads to an unsustainable domestic debt build up, with significant adverse implications on the banking sector stability,” Msipa said.
Mugabe did not directly respond, but said there should be more meetings between his cabinet and business leaders.
In July, Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said the budget deficit had risen to $1.4 billion in 2016, worse than previously estimated and equivalent to 10 percent of national output.
Zimbabwe has not been able to borrow on international financial markets since 1999 after defaulting on repayments to the International Monetary Fund and other foreign lenders and must rely on domestic taxes to fund its $4 billion budget.
The government is borrowing from banks by issuing Treasury Bills, which analysts say is a major cause of liquidity shortages in the economy.
The central bank says the total stock of Treasury Bills in the market is $2.5 billion, but bankers and financial analysts say the figure is much higher.
Msipa said foreign currency shortages meant businesses were struggling to pay for imports, echoing a warning by a retailers’ association this week that problems importing could lead to shortages of basic goods.
Last month, the central bank ordered platinum and chrome miners, the country’s main foreign currency earners, to surrender 80 percent of their export earnings to it &#8212; up from 50 percent &#8212; to contain a crippling dollar note shortage.
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Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Ed Stoddard and Catherine Evans
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Zimbabwe businesses warn Mugabe growing deficit could destabilise banks

Ratings firm Moody’s on Thursday warned that proposed plans by South Africa’s government to implement “radical economic transformation” could turn away investors and rising poverty may curb Treasury’s efforts to rein in fiscal deficits.
Moody’s said in a research report that plans for land redistribution, preferential procurement and other forms of affirmative actions could deter investors.
On Wednesday, the monthly business confidence index fell to the lowest level since mid-1980s as political scandals and policy uncertainty continued to weigh.
In June, Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s credit rating to Baa3, the bottom of the investment grade table, with a negative outlook citing the abrupt sacking of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in March.
“Some proposals, such as the recently drafted mining charter, present risks to growth by reducing regulatory stability and further undermining investor confidence,” said Moody’s senior analyst Zuzana Brixiova said in the note.
The revised mining laws, published by minerals ministry in June, require companies to increase their black ownership from 26 percent to 30 percent or possibly see their licenses revoked.
Mining shares fell to more than one-year lows when Minister Mosebenzi Zwane released the revised charter, and its implementation has since been suspended after a lobby group challenged it in court.
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is due to hold an election in December to replace President Jacob Zuma as its leader, and several factions are jostling for power.
Radical economic transformation, a vague ANC plan to tackle racial inequality, has emerged as the key rallying point for the two main factions led by Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma respectively.
The ANC, in power since 1994 following the end of apartheid, is also keen to woo back voters ahead of national polls in 2019 after losing three key urban municipalities to opposition coalitions in local government elections in 2016.
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Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by James Macharia and Pritha Sarkar
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South Africa’s radical economic transformation policy could turn off investors – Moody’s

Bhavtik Vallabhjee| Barclays Africa
Africa’s power and energy sector is a critical driver of growth and development across the continent – so in order to ensure that the industry reaches its full potential and addresses the energy needs of citizens, it is necessary for businesses and producers to keep up to date with a rapidly changing landscape.
In this way, we have identified five key trends that will impact on the way that people live and work:
<ol>
<li>Coal power plants and projects are becoming more difficult to finance as there is a greater move towards investment in low-carbon technologies and green energy </li>
</ol>
More countries and companies worldwide are focusing on going green and investing in low-carbon technologies – a move that became more pronounced following the commitments made at the COP 21 United Nations Climate Change Conference in late 2015.
Appetite for coal projects is declining globally, but the trend is particularly noticeable and growing in OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) member states. Organisations headquartered in some of these countries have  largely exited investing in of coal power plants , making public statements that they are focusing more intensively on low-carbon tech. China, too, is starting to make strides in the move away from its reliance on coal plants towards cleaner energy.
As low-carbon technologies and green energy continue to become more commonplace, financing coal power plants will become increasingly difficult. Similarly the pool of potential suitors to acquire such assets in mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;As) deals will also consequently shrink.
<ol start="2">
<li> The growing appetite for renewable energy in emerging markets</li>
</ol>
What’s more, there is a growing push from African countries such as Morocco, Senegal and South Africa, among others, to move from coal as feedstock to sources such as gas to fuel power plants. Renewable energy solutions in solar, and wind in particular have increased markedly due to the falling cost of these technologies making them competitive.  Similarly, with the low cost of gas more latterly compared to several years ago, (e.g. through the shale gas revolution in the USA) gas power plants have increasingly become more competitive compared to clean coal technologies. Connecting renewable energy onto the grid is becoming more affordable as Africa is blessed with abundant natural resources such as great solar irradiation and wind resource. E.g. the best solar sites  in the Northern Cape in South Africa, for example, receive over 2 500Kwh/ m2 hours of sunshine every year, with average solar radiation levels of between 4.5 and 6.5 kWh/m2 (kilowatts per metre squared per hour) every day. To put things in perspective, this is over two and a half times what Germany – a world leader in solar energy – receives, indicating the immense potential to tap the continent’s natural resources.
As such, it stands to reason that it is this dynamic that will ultimately impact on and alter the power landscape in Africa. While Africa has typically lagged behind developed markets in the uptake of renewable energy, this will become a feature of the past as appetite for renewable energy increases.
A critical part of the uptake of renewable energy is the use of an auction tariff regime as opposed to a feed-in tariff. South Africa already has the auction tariff system in place, as the country studied the best-of-breed practices in other markets globally before deciding to adopt a similar approach here in S.A.  . The move has worked well for the country and resulted in the cost of tariffs falling, which is beneficial to consumers.  There are similar initiatives in many other markets globally, including in Africa.
<ol start="3">
<li> The rise of battery storage</li>
</ol>
There has been massive investment in battery storage and research and development in the field by leading global companies such as Samsung, Tesla, Total and BYD in the past five years – and it is going to continue to gain momentum going forward, particularly when coupled with solar photovoltaic plants for storage of energy.
What will drive the growth of battery storage further is that the costs will drop substantially in the next three to five years.
<ol start="4">
<li> The power of distributed generation and the rise of smaller grids</li>
</ol>
It is well documented that African countries have endured challenges in the past with providing their citizens with electricity – more than 600 million people across the continent are still without power, illustrating that much still needs to be done in this space. It is my view that with the rise of trends like decentralized distributed generation, closing that gap will become more easily achievable.
Distributed generation has the ability to bring more citizens into the energy fold through the building of smaller power stations at specific load centres, rather than building bigger, centralised stations that need to transmit power long distance. This also assists in reducing transmission losses as power would not need to be evacuated over long distances. The introduction of multiple, smaller grids can substantially assist in transmitting power to where it is needed, bringing down the number of people without electricity.
There are huge opportunities in the decentralisation of renewable energy and businesses and countries that embrace the shift and invest in the space will yield good returns.
<ol start="5">
<li> The long-term move towards integrated grids through increased investment in transmissions projects</li>
</ol>
In developed markets such as the US and Europe, many countries’ grids are linked or integrated to evacuate power from a country with a surplus to one that has a deficit and is in need of power. This is not the case in Africa, where there are very distinct regional power pools  – such as the northern, southern, eastern, western, and central  power pools  –  with very little overlap and integration between them.
Although investment in transmission projects to link grids is slowly increasing in prominence, with many examples of transmission projects in countries such Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique, it is a gradual development and an expensive exercise. It is for this reason that growth in this area will continue to be slow and developments will only be visible over the next decade or even longer. However, as transmissions projects serve as a pre-cursor to power generation, investment in this space is a necessity and, as such, will continue to occur.
Conclusion:
Due to the large supply-demand gap in power on the continent, there will continue to be a large number of power projects being developed in the region. The political and economic climate across the continent has steadily improved over the last 2 decades or longer, making Africa a strong investment case for international developers. Despite the frustration of long lead times associated with developing infrastructure projects, on a risk-return adjusted basis, Africa still boasts far better returns than developed markets. Projects are generally well structured making the default rate on projects almost negligible. With its abundant natural resources for power (good solar radiation, wind, hydro and biomass potential, gas finds, amongst others), the energy landscape is changing – Africa will continue to be a compelling investment case.

Five trends to watch in Africa’s energy and power sector

Tanzanian President John Magufuli said on Thursday he had ordered a review of a contract belonging to Petra Diamonds Ltd in Tanzania and asked senior public officials to resign over the outcome of a probe into the sector.
“I have endorsed all the recommendations of the parliamentary probe committees for the review of the Williamson diamond mine contract,” Magufuli said in a televised broadcast.
London-listed Petra has a 75 percent stake in the mine, while the government owns the rest. Shares in the company were down 1.6 percent in morning trade.
A spokeswoman for Petra was not immediately able to comment.
Magufuli said he had also ordered law enforcement agencies to investigate allegations of under-declared diamond exports.
Magufuli’s actions are a continuation of a crackdown in the mining sector.
He has sent shockwaves through the mining industry in Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer since his election late in 2015 with actions he says are aimed at ensuring that mining companies pay a fair share of taxes.
Tanzania has passed new laws to increase mining taxes, to force companies to renegotiate their contracts and to allow the state to own up to 50 percent of shares in mining companies.
In March, it banned exports of copper concentrate or mineral sand for processing abroad, which particularly hit gold miner Acacia Mining, the biggest in the country.
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Reporting by Fumbuka Ng&#8217;wanakilala; Editing by George Obulutsa and Dale Hudson
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Tanzania orders review of Petra mine contract, seeks resignations over probe

Jared Jeffery and Jacques Nel | NKC African Economics
On Monday, September 4, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced that the country will head back to the polls on October 17. However, National Super Alliance (Nasa) presidential candidate Raila Odinga has rejected the proposed date citing a lack of consultation.
Mr Odinga is reported as saying that the opposition wants its issues regarding the IEBC (the firing of its top six officials and an audit of the technology used in the election) to be addressed before a date is set.
Mr Odinga is quoted by Reuters as saying that he wants elections held on either October 24 or 31.
In addition, Nasa states that it plans to lodge 62 court cases contesting the results of governorship, legislative and member of county assembly (MCA) elections.
Thus, while we know that fresh elections must by law be held within 60 days of the historic September 1 Supreme Court ruling annulling the August election results, it remains unclear whether they will be on the date specified by the IEBC and who will organise and oversee them.
IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati on Tuesday, September 5, dismissed reports that the commission’s CEO, Ezra Chiloba, and other senior staff have been put on compulsory leave, but said that changes to the secretariat would be made before the election.
Furthermore, Mr Chebukati said that “the commission is revising the operational and procedural requirements for the conduct of the fresh elections,” adding that those changes will be expedited once the commission gets the full judgment of the Supreme Court.
That, however, may only be towards the end of September (the court must make its full judgement available by September 21), which would leave the commission with little time to institute the necessary changes.
Mr Chebukati himself has refused to step down which will not help improve the credibility of the commission.
Assuming the elections go ahead in October as planned, what are the possible political and economic implications we can expect?
The next two months are going to be turbulent as both parties kick campaigning into high gear once again.
The run up to the August election was for the most part more peaceful than the 2013 poll (the gruesome murder of IEBC employee Chris Msando notwithstanding). Protests and riots in the six months prior to the election averaged 20 per month compared to 24 per month for the six months before 2013’s poll, according to the Armed Conflict Location &amp; Event Data Project (Acled).
But protests and riots in the lead up to an election are not necessarily a good predictor of what to expect thereafter. In 2007, there were only 24 protests and riots in total in the six months leading up to those controversial polls, but the violence that followed the announcement of results claimed around 1,113 lives and left hundreds of thousands displaced.
The fallout from the disputed results of the August 8 election was more violent than we had expected. Although there were fewer recorded protests and riots than in 2013 (31 in August 2017 compared to 34 in March 2013), the number of fatalities attributed to post-election unrest so far this year was significantly higher (Human Rights Watch puts the figure at 24 but said that this was likely an underestimate, while Acled data states as many as 45 lives were lost).
The police have yet to be officially censured and there are calls for the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA) to investigate, but with 60 days until the next election, there is not much time to have any effect on policing culture. The official commission of inquiry into the 2007/08 post-election violence attributed 405 of the 1,113 deaths to the police.
Tensions may increase ahead of the October polls, but the real danger will come once the results are announced – whichever way they go.
With regard to the expected result of the re-run election, we still believe that President Uhuru Kenyatta is the favourite to win.
Prior to the August 8 poll, we had forecast that he would win with around 52.3% of the total vote (the annulled results showed that he received 54.3%).
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft wp-image-283306 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Kenya-1.png" alt="" width="341" height="227" />
The main factor to watch remains turnout. As can be seen in the graph, Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is dominant in the country’s most vote-rich regions.
If turnout is higher in October than in August, as we suspect it will be, the likelihood of the incumbent retaining his place will also be higher. We had anticipated a turnout of 78.6% ahead of the August 8 poll (compared to 84.9% in 2013), and the IEBC’s annulled results showed a turnout slightly lower at 77.5%.
The annulled results, while in line with our forecasts, did show some surprises. We had expected Mr Odinga to do better in Nairobi and for turnout in the Rift Valley and North Eastern regions to be higher (which would have favoured Mr Kenyatta).
Of course, there is still a chance that Mr Odinga could win the presidential election. If this were to occur and there were no re-runs of elections for parliamentary seats, it would mean that he would be president while the Jubilee Party had a significant majority in the National Assembly.
This would in all likelihood lead to his policies being stonewalled – effectively making him a lame duck president – and would have serious implications for economic growth.
Turning to implications for the economy, our next forecasting round is only at the end of October so we do not have any new figures at the moment, but we have narrowed down the possible impact on our forecasts.
Arguably the biggest risk relates to the country’s fiscal position. The 2017/18 budget has allocated just under $400m towards the IEBC for election-related expenditure, but some estimates put the actual cost of the election at around $500m.
It should be noted that a large proportion of this spending would have been once-off purchases that will not have to be repeated, and donors would have also footed a proportion of the bill – and we can expect external donors to remain engaged for the October elections given the positive light in which the Supreme Court’s decision has been received, at least from an institutional perspective.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-283307 size-full alignleft" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Kenya-2.png" alt="" width="340" height="227" />
Still, the amounts involved do raise some concern, particularly when considering Kenya’s already precarious fiscal position.
However, precisely because of this precarious fiscal position, we expect Kenyan authorities to keep a firm grip on any unplanned spending in order to contain risk perceptions. The IMF has continued its unwavering support for Kenya despite the country’s disappointing fiscal consolidation track record, but the Kenyan authorities would not want to push their luck in this regard.
Also, every major rating agency identifies Kenya’s fiscal position as risk negative, and Kenyan authorities will need to ensure that these perceptions do not deteriorate going forward. Consequently, we do not expect any significant difference to the country’s fiscal forecasts.
One important channel through which we do expect the re-run of the election to have an impact on our forecasts is on external balances.
It was quite telling how quickly regional traders (particularly Ugandans) were willing (and able) to channel external trade through Tanzania at the expense of Kenya due to fears of trade disruptions during the election period.
Given that this period is now being extended, we can expect more trade to be directed away from Kenya – re-exports has become an increasingly important trade category in Kenya.
In addition, the uncertainty created by the political environment will also have a negative impact on tourism, which will reduce services receipts. The overall impact on external balances will be notable but won’t have a material impact on external risks.
With regard to GDP growth, the re-run is expected to have a marginal negative impact.
This will primarily be through the impact on risk perceptions, with both domestic and external investors adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped from just under $600m in 2015 to just over $300m last year. Our previous forecasts incorporated a notable rebound in FDI this year, but these figures will be adjusted to show relatively stable FDI in 2017.
Furthermore, the negative impact on GDP growth in 2017 will be largely offset by a slight improvement in 2018 growth as insecurity perceptions subside.
There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the October re-run elections. We do not know what changes will need to be made to the IEBC and whether they will have time to implement them. We do not know whether other elections (legislative, governorship and MCA) will also be re-run. And we certainly do not know whether candidates are going to call for calm in order to avoid further violence.
What we can perhaps be more sure of is that Kenyans will be more motivated to vote when elections do occur – meaning voter turnout would be higher which would boost Mr Kenyatta’s chances of re-election.
If legislative elections are not re-run and Mr Odinga pulls off a surprise win, we can be sure that a Jubilee-dominated Parliament would make policy making very difficult for him and this would have negative consequences for the economy.
We can expect the economy to suffer over the short term due to these multiple uncertainties and the country’s already-precarious fiscal position could be negatively affected.
There was euphoria in many quarters when the Supreme Court made its historic ruling. The institution’s independence is positive and the precedent set will hopefully lead to better elections going forward. However, the ruling has not been without its costs.

Kenya – Implications of fresh elections

Angola’s ruling MPLA party has won a general election by taking 61.07 percent of the vote, the electoral commission said on Wednesday, making João Lourenço the next president of sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy.
He will replace Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who steps down after 38 years at the helm but will continue as head of the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA).
The main opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) took 26.67 percent, with the smaller opposition party CASA-CE winning 9.44 percent.
“Mission accomplished,” Lourenço told supporters at his party’s headquarters in Luanda.
“We’ll produce a better future for the country and the people of Angola,” he said in his first comments as president-elect. He is expected to take office on Sept. 21.
UNITA, which has repeatedly complained that the electoral process has been non-transparent and illegal, declined to comment after the results on Wednesday. A spokesman told Reuters a statement will be made on Thursday. UNITA has previously said it will appeal the results.
Speaking earlier on Wednesday, the spokeswoman for the National Electoral Commission Julia Ferreira rejected the opposition’s complaints as having a “lack of clarity and objectivity”, adding sufficient proof had not been presented.
Electoral observers have said the vote on Aug 23 was reasonably free and fair. The head of the African Union’s observation mission, Jose Maria Neves, congratulated Angola on a poll he said served as a “reference for the continent”.
Speaking before announcing definitive election results, President of the National Electoral Commission André da Silva Neto asked the parties to accept the election results.
On the streets of Luanda, cheering and the honking of horns was heard as residents celebrated another electoral win for the MPLA, which has maintained an unbroken hold on power since Africa’s second-largest crude producer gained independence from Portugal in 1975.
Lourenço will be only the country’s third president in that time. A quiet 63-year-old more used to army barracks and the closed doors of party politics than the public spotlight, he has denied he will remain in the shadow of his predecessor dos Santos.
Lourenço has promised to kick-start the economy and has not ruled out deals with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to help restructure it. Angola imports everything from washing powder to long-life milk at huge cost.
MPLA will have 150 lawmakers, giving them the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to pass any form of legislation.
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Reporting by Stephen Eisenhammer; Editing by Robin Pomeroy and Hugh Lawson
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Angola’s ruling MPLA wins election with 61% of vote: electoral commission

Amendments to South Africa’s mineral resources law are expected to be passed by December and provide greater investor certainty, Mines Minister Mosebenzi Zwane said on Thursday.
Changes to the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act were initially passed by parliament three years ago but were then sent back to lawmakers by President Jacob Zuma in 2015 due to concerns over its constitutionality.
“We are continuing to support the parliamentary processes towards our new target date of December 2017 for promulgation. This is not a Department of Mineral Resources goal, but a national one,” Zwane said in a speech to a conference in Australia.
South Africa’s mining sector is slowly showing signs of recovery after being battered by a global commodities downturn that hit platinum, iron ore and coal exports, although regulatory uncertainty remains a concern, analysts said.
Amendments to the MPRDA bill were first passed in 2014, but Zuma referred the bill back to parliament over concerns that it might infringe global trade obligations and was unconstitutional, partly because it elevated the country’s Mining Charter to the status of legislation.
South Africa’s Chamber of Mines, which represents the industry, has taken the government to court to block the implementation of the new Mining Charter, which gives resource firms 12 months to meet a new 30 percent minimum for black ownership, up from 26 percent.
“The 2017 Mining Charter is law, and all right-holders in South Africa are expected to implement it,” Zwane said.
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Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by Joe Brock and Angus MacSwan
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South Africa aims to pass delayed mining law by December: minister

Move over Captain America and watch out Wonder Woman, here comes Ngozi: a teenage superheroine inspired by Nigeria’s kidnapped Chibok girls who fights evil in Lagos, marking a new chapter in diversity for Marvel Comics.
Ngozi is the star of new title “Blessing in Disguise”, the first Marvel story to be set in a real-life African country &#8211; Nigeria’s commercial capital &#8211; and feature a Nigerian superhero.
The character stems from the high-profile abduction of about 220 schoolgirls in Chibok in northeast Nigeria in 2014 by the militant group Boko Haram, and the comic’s author hopes the teenage superhero will resonate with girls across the country.
“It was an important decision for me to base Ngozi on the one of the Chibok girls,” Nnedi Okorafor, an award-winning Nigeria-American writer, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
The Chibok abduction sparked international outrage and became the most infamous act by the Islamist Boko Haram group which has killed 20,000 people and uprooted at least 2 million in a brutal eight-year campaign that shows no sign of ending.
“They were normal girls who suddenly had to deal with a huge change in their lives &#8230; and their story of perseverance is so powerful,” Okorafor added. “Like many Nigerian girls, Ngozi comes in a small package but is strong-willed and determined.”
The short story is part of Marvel’s “Venomverse” comic, published on Wednesday, which sees Ngozi appear alongside well-established Marvel characters from Venom to the Black Panther.
Okorafor said she was buoyed by the global success of the summer box office hit “Wonder Woman” &#8211; the first superhero movie to star a woman since 2005 &#8211; with the character hailed as a new role model for girls and a break away from sexism in Hollywood.
Yet the U.S.-based science fiction author said that she was desperate to see more diversity in the world of superheroes.
“I‘m a huge Wonder Woman fan, but we can really push it further when it comes to diversity,” said Okorafor, who is also an English professor at the University at Buffalo in New York.
“I‘m not just talking about race and sexual orientation, but about having a range of personalities with different desires, dreams and flaws,” she added. “I don’t only want to see badass female characters, I want to see much less predictable ones.”
Several comicbook fans have shared their excitement about the character of Ngozi on social media sites such as Twitter.
“A Marvel story. Written by a Nigerian Woman. Set in Lagos. Superhero’s name: NGOZI. What a time to be alive,” Twitter user Beth Lee posted.
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Reporting By Kieran Guilbert, Editing by Katy Migiro. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women&#8217;s rights, trafficking, property rights, climate change and resilience.
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Nigeria’s Chibok girls inspire Marvel’s new superhero

South African retailer Shoprite has been fined 1 million rand ($77,500) for failing to assess properly whether consumers could afford its loans, the National Consumer Tribunal said on Wednesday.
The company, which had turnover in its last financial year of 141 billion rand ($11 billion), was also ordered to appoint a debt counselor at its own costs following what the regulator called “reckless lending”.
Shoprite was not immediately available for comment.
Unsustainable levels of household debt, especially in lower-income brackets, is a pressing social and economic problem in South Africa, which has just emerged from a recession but remains saddled with high levels of unemployment and poverty.
“This judgment comes after an investigation by the National Credit Regulator (NCR) revealed Shoprite entered into credit agreements with consumers without conducting a reasonable and objective assessment of the consumers’ ability to afford the loans,” NCR Chief Executive Nomsa Motshegare said.
“Some of the conduct of Shoprite that was found to be in contravention of the National Credit Act (NCA) was that Shoprite, when assessing whether a consumer could afford a loan or not, took into account unverified income of another person, such as a spouse or a life partner,” she said in a statement.
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Reporting by Ed Stoddard; editing by David Clarke
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South Africa’s Shoprite fined for “reckless lending” – regulator

South Africa emerged from a recession in the second quarter as agriculture helped the economy expand more than expected, official figures showed on Tuesday, strengthening the rand and bonds.
Africa’s most industrialised economy grew 2.5 percent in the three months to the end of June, after contracting by 0.6 percent in the first quarter and by 0.3 percent in the final quarter of 2016, Statistics South Africa said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a quarter-on-quarter expansion of 2.1 percent and year-on-year growth of 0.4 percent.
The rand firmed against the dollar in response to the data, and was trading 0.23 percent firmer at 12.9500/dollar at 1113 GMT. Government bonds also firmed, with the benchmark paper down 1.5 basis points to 8.5 percent.
Leading the recovery was the agriculture sector, which expanded 33.6 percent in the second quarter as it recovered from last year’s drought. Mining, manufacturing and trade also registered growth.
President Jacob Zuma last month said 2017 growth would be below 0.5 percent, down from a forecast of 1.3 percent in February, after the poor first-quarter numbers.
Low growth has piled pressure on Zuma, beset by the fallout from credit downgrades and corruption scandals.
Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba said in a statement on Tuesday the improved growth figures were encouraging but that it was too early to celebrate.
“We need to remain honest about the major challenges that still face the local economy. Poverty, unemployment, and inequality which are being underpinned by persistent low growth remain the challenge,” he said.
<h3 data-reactid="51">CONFIDENCE ELUSIVE</h3>
Gross domestic product rose 1.1 percent on an unadjusted year-on-year basis in the second quarter, compared with a 1.0 percent expansion in the previous three months, the statistics agency said.
“The growth rate is not what planners and those in decision-making positions would have wanted. Although it’s not negative, it is not at the level that was planned for,” said Statistician-General Pali Lehohla.
Since South Africa emerged from the 2009 recession, growth has fallen short of the government’s target of 5 percent, the level economists say is needed to curb unemployment.
“A restoration of investor confidence remains important for a sustained recovery. For now, that is still elusive,” said Standard Chartered Bank’s Chief Africa Economist Razia Khan.
“The Q2 GDP data demonstrates some momentum in the economy, but this is unlikely to be sufficient to discourage the (central bank) from further easing in support of the economic recovery.”
The South African Reserve Bank cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent in July for the first time in five years to support the economy.
Gigaba has pledged to shrink the budget deficit, currently 3.9 percent, to 3.3 percent of GDP by 2019 in an effort to avoid deeper credit downgrades, but economists believe he is unlikely to find the revenue or make the spending cuts needed.
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Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by James Macharia and Andrew Roche
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Farming helps grow South African economy out of recession

South Africa’s business confidence index fell to its lowest in more than three decades in August as merchandise import and export volumes fell, a survey showed on Wednesday.
The business group said South Africa’s economic performance was sub-optimal despite an positive global outlook, and improved business confidence was needed to revitalise domestic growth.
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (SACCI) monthly business confidence index (BCI) fell to 89.6 in August, the lowest level since mid-1980s, from 95.3 in July.
“Lower merchandise import and export volumes mainly caused the sharp monthly decline of the BCI in August 2017. Lower consumer inflation and new vehicle sales made only moderate positive monthly contributions,” SACCI said in a statement.
Africa’s most industrialised economy emerged from recession in June, helped by recovery in agriculture after a drought last year, but political scandals and policy uncertainty still dampen investor confidence.
Since South Africa emerged from the 2009 recession, growth has fallen short of the government’s target of 5 percent, the level economists say is needed to curb unemployment.
The country is beset by low growth, the fallout from credit downgrades, corruption scandals and in-fighting in the ruling African National Congress party which is due to hold elections in December to replace President Jacob Zuma as its leader. Zuma tenure as South Africa’s president ends in 2019.
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Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by James Macharia
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South Africa’s business confidence at lowest in over 30 years

Nigeria has cancelled its weekly cabinet meeting for the second time since President Muhammadu Buhari returned from three months of medical leave in Britain.
Information Minister Lai Mohammed said in a statement Wednesday’s meeting would not take place “due to inadequate time to prepare the documents”.
Buhari cancelled the first cabinet meeting following his return on Aug. 19, raising concerns that the president, criticised for inertia by his opponents, was returning to his former ways, when he worked from home and missed ministerial meetings.
But the 74-year-old president, who has been working from home since his return, last week presided over his first cabinet meeting since taking leave for an unspecified ailment.
The refusal to disclose details of his illness has caused speculation about whether he is well enough to run Africa’s most populous country and biggest economy.
Mohammed’s statement said a two-day public holiday on Friday and Monday to mark the Islamic Eid-el-Kabir celebrations had left little time to prepare for the weekly meeting.
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Reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.
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Nigeria’s cabinet meeting cancelled for second time since Buhari’s return

Nigeria exited recession in the second quarter, but the pace of growth was slow despite higher earnings from oil, suggesting Africa’s largest economy remains fragile and overly dependent on its dominant export.
Growth was 0.55 percent year-on-year, the statistics office said on Tuesday, while OPEC data shows crude production rebounded 9.1 percent to 1.68 million barrels per day over the same period.
But that GDP expansion was a full percentage point lower than economists polled by Reuters expected, and the office also said the first-quarter downturn, at 0.91 percent, had been steeper than initially estimated.
The economy shrank by 1.5 percent in 2016, its first annual contraction in a quarter century, crippled by lower oil revenues following years of subdued prices and a shortage of hard currency.
“This is not at all a robust GDP print,” said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa at Standard Chartered, of Tuesday’s figures.
“It still falls far short of the growth rates the Nigerian economy should be achieving.”
Oil accounts for the bulk of Nigeria’s foreign earnings and government revenue.
But according to International Monetary Fund figures for 2013 it makes up no more than a sixth of gross domestic product. The statistics office says it makes up less than a tenth.
The office said the second quarter GDP contribution from the non-oil sector &#8211; notably agriculture and manufacturing, including textiles, clothing and footwear &#8211; shrank slightly from the previous three months and from the previous year.
Nigeria’s government has also touted agriculture as a way to wean the country off its oil dependence. Growth there fell to 3.01 percent from 4.53 percent in the second quarter of 2016.
“Regardless of growth moving back into positive territory, it remains fragile,” said Celeste Fauconnier, a regional economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, which predicts a full-year expansion of just 0.5 percent.
“An undiversified production base, a host of structural rigidities and persistent security troubles point to a prolonged and gradual recovery period,” said Fauconnier.
Nigerian crude production slumped last year as militants attacked oil facilities, with an average output of 1.54 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2016, according to OPEC figures.
Output rebounded after the government engaged in negotiations to address communities’ grievances in its crude-producing heartlands in the Niger Delta.
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Reporting by Paul Carsten, editing by John Stonestreet
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Nigeria exits recession but recovery fragile

Kenya’s election commission said on Tuesday that different staff will be in charge of the Oct. 17 re-run of the presidential election, after the country’s top court last week nullified the result of the August vote.
The Supreme Court ordered on Friday that the vote be re-run within 60 days, saying incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory by 1.4 million votes was undermined by irregularities in the process. Kenyatta was not accused of any wrongdoing.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairman Wafula Chebukati said in a statement on Tuesday that it had appointed for three months a project coordinator and officials to run the information technology, logistics, operations and training as well as the national tallying centre during the re-run.
“The appointment takes immediate effect,” Chebukati said.
The appointments were announced hours after opposition leader Raila Odinga said his coalition would not participate in the re-run unless some officials were removed and its voting technology audited.
Chebukati’s statement did not mention those who previously held the positions.
Kenyatta responded to Odinga’s demands by saying there was nowhere in law that required the electoral body to consult Odinga.
Odinga’s conditions for participating in the repeat presidential election included the removal of six officials at the election board. He wants criminal investigations to be opened against them.
“You cannot do a mistake twice and expect to get different results,” Odinga told reporters. “A number of the officials of the commission should be sent home, some of them should be investigated for the heinous crimes they committed.”
The opposition also said it was planning to file dozens of challenges to results from races lower down the ticket, including legislative and local seats contested in the Aug. 8 vote.
<h3 data-reactid="52">COURT CASES</h3>
The Supreme Court ruling, the first time in Africa that a court had overturned the re-election of a sitting president, was hailed by Odinga’s supporters as “historic”.
Analysts have said it is likely to lead to some short-term volatility in East Africa’s biggest economy, but could build confidence in institutions longer-term.
On Monday, the election board said it would hold new elections on Oct. 17. But Odinga said he wanted elections held on Oct. 24 or 31 instead.
Odinga’s National Super Alliance said in a letter to the chairman of the election commission that before the new vote is held, it needs to audit the technology used to conduct August’s election and give an assurance it will be transparent in its conduct.
“There will be no elections on the 17th of October until the conditions that we have spelt out in the statement are met,” Odinga said.
Kenyatta rebuffed Odinga’s demands. “There is no legal requirement that Raila be consulted. I was neither consulted. Kenya doesn’t belong to one man,” he said in a statement sent by his office.
Odinga has lost the last three presidential elections. Each time, he has said the vote was rigged against him.
A row over a 2007 poll, which Odinga challenged after being declared loser, was followed by weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed more than 1,200 people.
The opposition also plans to lodge 62 court cases contesting governorship, lawmaker, and local seats, spokeswoman Kathleen Openda told Reuters.
At least 33 court cases were filed contesting election results before the presidential election was annulled, said Andrew Limo, spokesman for the election board.
The judiciary said in a statement that by Tuesday a total 66 cases had been filed before various courts challenging the outcomes of such seats countrywide. The board received challenges to 189 results in 2013.
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Additional reporting by Humphrey Malalo; Writing by David Lewis and Katharine Houreld; Editing by George Obulutsa and Alison Williams
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Kenya election campaigns turn personal after court orders fresh polls

Op-Ed: A shift in thinking is needed to counter South Africa’s startling rise in poverty

Kenyan shilling strengthens to highest level since March 2017

Zimbabwe businesses warn Mugabe growing deficit could destabilise banks

South Africa’s radical economic transformation policy could turn off investors – Moody’s

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Tanzania orders review of Petra mine contract, seeks resignations over probe

Kenya – Implications of fresh elections

Angola’s ruling MPLA wins election with 61% of vote: electoral commission

South Africa aims to pass delayed mining law by December: minister

Nigeria’s Chibok girls inspire Marvel’s new superhero

South Africa’s Shoprite fined for “reckless lending” – regulator

Farming helps grow South African economy out of recession

South Africa’s business confidence at lowest in over 30 years

Nigeria’s cabinet meeting cancelled for second time since Buhari’s return

Nigeria exits recession but recovery fragile

Kenya’s election body appoints key personnel for presidential vote re-run

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