By Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Acting Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management at the African Development Bank Group.



After demonstrating its resilience during the Ebola outbreak and the global financial crisis, Africa is once again facing a severe test of its strength and agility because of the coronavirus pandemic.



 The good news is that the continent has entered this crisis in reasonably good shape following decades of progression in health, education and economic outcomes. As of early 2020, macroeconomic fundamentals in Africa were improving, with investments, rather than consumption, accounting for more than half of the region’s growth. Inflation was falling and the continent was making impressive strides towards accomplishing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Africa must build on the momentum and strive to prevent the coronavirus pandemic from reversing the gains of the past 20 years.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="740" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1110x740.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-379845" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-696x464.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1068x712.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-1920x1280.jpg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Dr.-Charles-Lufumpa-002-5-600x400.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>Charles Leyeka Lufumpa</figcaption></figure>



 Admittedly, that’s easier said than done: despite their best efforts, many countries still struggle with fragile health systems, high debt levels, weak external balances, as well as high rates of poverty and unemployment. The African Development Bank now projects that Africa will fall into a recession in 2020 with economic growth contracting by at least 1.7 per cent. In a worst-case scenario, this figure could turn out as high as 3.4 per cent. Cumulative losses in gross domestic product (GDP) across the continent could range between $173.1 billion and $236.7 billion in 2020 and 2021. The coronavirus pandemic threatens to increase the debt burden of African countries from 60 per cent to 70 per cent of gross domestic product, heightening the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis. The additional financing required to cushion the consequences of the crisis could be in excess of $150 billion.



 In a part of the world where 85 per cent of the population earn their living in the informal sector,unemployment as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic could push an additional 28 to 49 million people into extreme poverty. Moreover, if we fail to take adequate action, the impact of the crisis on food insecurity and malnutrition may be even worse than anticipated. 



 To counter the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, Africa needs robust policy responses from every country on the continent, paired with strong support from Africa’s development partners. In the short term, African countries should prioritise healthcare spending for the provision of essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and materials, acceleration of local production of medical supplies including PPE and vaccine and drug discovery. Targeted cash transfers and subsidies for vulnerable households as well as subsidies and tax relief for businesses should be high on the agenda. Central banks must inject liquidity into the economy, turning to unconventional policy tools such as quantitative easing if necessary. In the longer term, countries should seize the imperative of building resilience to future crises. As good times return and economies get back on track, it should become a priority to build domestic and external buffers against any potential exogenous shocks. More money should be earmarked for scientific, economic and social research. Countries should pursue global and continental partnerships to prepare for eventualities. Private sector growth and revamping education and labour markets for the future of work are also key.



 The role of development partners. At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, multilateral development institutions took immediate action to help Africa’s poorest countries navigate the crisis and help them on the road to recovery. The African Development Bank is playing its part through its USD 10 billion COVID-19 Rapid Response Facility (CRF). The CRF offers immediate relief to African countries to address the crisis by providing additional resources for public health interventions, social protection programs and liquidity and budget support to affected sectors of their economies.



 Civil society and think tanks have a useful role to play by helping to build trust, solidarity and uptake of COVID-19 prevention and containment measures. They can also help to ensure that COVID-19 interventions are carried out equitably and that governments are held accountable for their policies and actions. The African Development Bank stands ready to work with other multilateral financial institutions and wealthier nations to alleviate the impact of the pandemic on African countries. 



 The continent’s youthful and innovative population, its growing middle class, its value addition to the abundant natural resources and its ever-improving governance systems give us plenty of reason to be confident that Africa will overcome the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.



 This year marks the first time the continent has entered a recession in more than half a century. Over the past two decades, Africa has boasted some of the highest growth rates in the world, setting the region up as the next investment frontier in a post–COVID-19 world. The level of cooperation in Africa has been encouraging. But beyond the crisis, we need to continue working together to help rebuild our economies and prepare them for the future. Africa will emerge from this episode stronger and more resilient than ever before.

Dr. Charles Lufumpa (002) (1)

OPINION: Post COVID-19-Rebuilding Africa and strengthening it against future economic shocks.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its health and economic impacts has forced a global rethink of the current multilateral framework and what it means for the future. For Africa, COVID-19 has served as a wake-up call in many ways. The mitigation measures that were put in place by most countries, globally, to contain the spread of the pandemic, and particularly border closures and lockdowns, resulted in reduced economic activity and supply chain disruptions across the whole world, Africa included. Reduced economic activity has meant demand contraction in Africa’s key markets, who were worse affected by the pandemic, thus depressing export revenues as commodity prices have continued to plummet.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="600" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782.jpg" alt="International travel for South Africans is now allowed, this is how it will work" class="wp-image-360865" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-80x60.jpg 80w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-265x198.jpg 265w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-696x522.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/shutterstock_110973782-560x420.jpg 560w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption>International travel for South Africans is now allowed, this is how it will work</figcaption></figure>



 Several African manufacturers have successfully reoriented operations to begin production of Protective Personal Equipment (PPE) and ventilators to meet local demand. However, for the most part, pandemic-related disruptions have exposed African economies’ overdependence on high commodity prices and exports of raw materials to fund basic government services. Together, disrupted international supply chains and domestic lockdowns created a perfect storm in which income, goods or services stopped circulating as economies came to a standstill. No money, no movement, and a realization that most African countries lack economic diversity and resilience.



 So, what is to be done? Simply put, there is a need to focus on fundamentals: producing more of what Africa consumes, and consuming more of what Africa produces. This does not mean cutting Africa off from the outside world. However, it does mean focusing first and foremost on the African market, and other markets secondarily. It means the need to think about Africa more as a single common market to facilitate scaling up. Producing and consuming locally will facilitate the development of supply chains that will offer small companies, and countries, opportunities to leverage their strengths and specializations and feed into large value chain networks that create more value through production, processing and distribution. And it means raising the standards within African supply chains to enable African firms to produce world class industrial products.



 To achieve this, there needs to be a concerted effort to shore up manufacturing in Africa. The demand for manufactured goods is already there, as evidenced by the figures on the import of manufactures. Key to enhancing manufacturing in Africa is improving intra-African trade through the effective operationalization of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which would spur industrialization. The COVID-19 crisis has shown that enhanced industrial production in Africa is entirely achievable, especially as countries have struggled to source inputs and products from overseas. African industries do have the potential to respond to demand and in fact, there is potential to leap-frog into advanced manufacturing and create the required capacity to produce quality world class goods. 



By extension, the pandemic has also exposed the vital importance of economic capacity not only for socioeconomic development and industrialization but to enhance resilience against crises and exogenous shocks that often occur without warning. Building on existing regional strategies for disaster risk reduction, there is also a need to factor in how pandemics present a multidimensional set of risks that require integrated responses to mitigate systemic risks. 



The capacity to locally manufacture the basics that are critical during emergencies—foodstuffs,clothing, shelter—and building the markets and supply chains needed to ensure a good supply of these, would contribute significantly to GDP, income and job creation. The question becomes how to build the markets and supply chains needed to ensure Africa can provide for itself, including during emergencies. For example, Africa has several agricultural commodities on which regional value chains can be constructed. These alone would contribute significantly to GDP, incomes and job creation while also paving a shift into the manufacture of light intermediate goods (e.g., wood products, textiles and leather) adds to the range of possibilities. As Africa builds more critical mass, the continent would increasingly move investment into distribution, data transmission and services to ensure these goods make it to market. Financing and insurance are needed across the spectrum, as are all the skills of the youth and specialists who can help manage the IT and logistics that leverage digital capabilities. This will create high paying, skilled jobs for Africa’s youth. In other words, there is a need to take a horizontal view of value creation and maximize opportunities to generate these in Africa, for African economies, African businesses, African workers and African consumers.



 So how can this be achieved? Fulfilling the African Development Bank’s High 5s priorities: Light Up and Power Africa; Feed Africa; Industrialise Africa; Integrate Africa; and, Improve the Qualityof Life for the People of Africa, would address these challenges on multiple fronts andinstrumentalize a tightly interconnected African market. The High 5s address the continent’s demonstrated need for power generation to electrify households and industries; enhanced transport links to connect African countries by land, sea and air; ICT for communication and digital management of logistics; financial markets to integrate for more and better financial flows for business enterprises to flourish and to meet household needs; and agribusinesses that rely on the latest seed and other technology to produce the crop yields needed to sustain Africa’s fast growing populations.



 By producing what it consumes and consuming what it produces as its countries and businesses progress up the value chain, Africa can build wealth, opportunity and resilience and ensure the successful realisation of Agenda 2063.



Khaled Sherif is the Vice-President, Regional Development, Integration and Business Delivery at the African Development Bank

VP Sherif Khaled (1)

OPINION: Regional Integration as a Tool for Wealth Creation in Africa

I was privileged to join the Hogan Lovell conference on Championing Africa in July. An important discussion was around creating a positive environment during crisis and some very inspirational ideas were exchanged. True leadership is continuing to do exceptional things even during challenging times.



Everyone is dealing with similar challenges today; what makes a prodigious leader who is able to manage through fear unknown to our times? There are some countries that have walked the talk and none better than the UAE that has been our home for the last 31 years. The region has seen the worst crisis with oil prices flirting at the lowest in a decade,tourism coming to a standstill, EXPO 2020 and a host of other conferences being postponed, the airline industry being annihilated and a massive exodus of expatriates resulting from job losses.



 The initial response caused by uncertainty was no different than in all other parts of the world; the fear of the unknown was evident in the decision making. The gloom from Europe and the US gave cause to get into a huddle to find short term solutions mainly to slow down the spread of the pandemic. 



The initial shut downs followed by the easing of restrictions, brought back a sense of relief and confidence but more than anything there were several factors that gave citizens comforted. The first was the visibility of the leaders. From time immemorial, soldiers on the battlefield fought relentlessly as long as saw their flag flying; it gave them hope. In today’s context, this confidence comes from leaders who have the fortitude to stand before their people and give them an accurate picture of the crisis; the good and the bad.



The UAE leadership kept everyone updated regarding the healthcare facilities and challenges, causes for the spread but more importantly the tangible steps being taken to address the pandemic.



 The second was the integrity of the community in general. The UAE is the unprejudiced home to 150 nationalities and a melting pot of cultures. It was overwhelming to see people help each other in small but meaningful ways. The governance in the country was strengthened to a point where predatory or mercenary conduct was completely nonexistent; there have been no examples of covidpreneurs or carpetbaggers during this period. There is nothing worse than witnessing the soulless profiteering from the misfortune of others.



 The third was in catalyzing community activities and fund raisers to help the needy. Campaigns requesting contributions of US$ 2 per meal were initiated to provide millions of food packets to the needy. These not only helped people that were suffering, but the orders were placed with small business owners who could provide the food packets at a time when restaurants were closed. The government does not have the resources to meet every need of its constituents but act as a catalyst to bring stakeholders together and achieve multidimensional results.



 The fourth was the celebration of stories of personal sacrifice and selflessness, initiatives of the public and private sector and the announcement of new initiatives and projects. At every opportunity, the government recognized citizens who had helped others, the sacrifice of healthcare workers, the police department and many other stakeholders. It regularly announced the infrastructure and healthcare plans that were being prepared and the resources being deployed in dealing with the pandemic. Being an economically developed nation, the UAE has also assisted countries as far away as Brazil and has received the appreciation from global leaders. Additionally, as some projects and activities (EXPO 2020) were being delayed, the country announced and celebrated the launch of Orbiter Hope, its Mars Mission, on 19th July 2020 and its nuclear energy project that would supplement the energy needs of the country.



 The fifth example was in finding opportunities in the crisis. Other than ensuring that the services including judicial and immigration remained uninterrupted there was an effort from the government to ensure that it stayed alert to the changing environment and adapted to the needs of the present. The situation in March was very different and armed with the knowledge of what worked and what didn’t the government took bold decisions to manage some of its crisis sectors.



 The badly hit Emirates and Etihad airlines remained open for business by taking stranded passengers from different parts of the world and rather than focus on the crisis and layoffs, the only messaging was on the various initiatives that were being taken and the routes being opened. Similarly, the country will now play host to the annual Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket tournament which is a star studded tournament usually held every year in India. This will turn around the complete hospitality industry from September to November this year. Additionally, as the Chinese government is facing difficulties finding friends, the UAE will play host to scores of companies that are setting up to take advantage of the geographic location and connectivity of the country.



 Finally, the government recognized the value and proactively engaged media to ensure that the messaging was accurate, timely and balanced. Nothing is more damaging than misinformed or irresponsible media at a time of crisis and it is in the hands of the government to ensure that proper touch points are established to provide information so that there is no speculation on critical matters. This element of external communications is so important to provide comfort not only to your own people but also to the international community that is engaging at different levels; tourism, investments, trade, commerce,sports etc. We need to learn from what people around us are doing right and stay positive. Roy T. Bennett said it aptly in his book, The Light in the Heart, “Instead of worrying about what you cannot control, shift your energy to what you can create.” The only way to span a crisis is to stay positive and innovate.

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OPINION:Remaining Positive in Crisis

The covid-19 pandemic is ravaging the world indiscriminately, but a combination of health and economic factors means the pandemic presents a particular set of challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although the continent is reporting far fewer cases of covid-19 than the rest of the world, the pandemic poses far-reaching economic ramifications, particularly for vulnerable populations such as women.



 A slowdown in economic growth has already been felt among small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs)in hard-hit sectors such as tourism, retail, and services and thus likely to create wide-spread job losses.



 SMEs are critical to Africa’s economic growth across the region and represent about 90 percent of Africa’s businesses and provide about 60 percent of jobs on the continent. Access to finance is one of the main challenges facing SMEs in normal times—with the majority of these firms lacking the finance needed to grow. 



Prior to covid-19, SMEs in Sub-Saharan Africa count among the world’s most financially constrained, with the International Finance Corporation estimating that 52 percent of SMEs in the region have an unmet financing need with a credit gap of US $331 billion. It is difficult to grasp the immediate effects of covid-19. SMEs already face challenges in accessing finance and will undoubtedly face unprecedented challenges due to covid-19. Women-led SMEs are the worst affected because they tend to be in the most exposed sectors and receive the fewest amount of support in terms of financing. According to a recent study by the International Trade Centre, 64 percent of women-led firms declared their business operations as strongly affected, compared with 52 percent of men-led companies. 



Policymakers and investors working to address the health and economic challenges posed by covid-19 must go beyond moratoriums and renegotiation of existing loan terms. To better serve women-led SMEs, this will require a concerted effort from multiple stakeholders to include banks, development finance institutions (DFIs), regulators, and government to apply a gender-lens when designing covid-19 related economic recovery efforts.



 First, there is a need for gender-disaggregated data to inform and shape policies and investments. The pandemic presents an unprecedented opportunity to expand gender data collection on women entrepreneurs. Second, there is a need to apply a gender-lens approach when designing Covid-19 responses to support SMEs. This includes designing specific digital solutions and financial instruments that better meets women’s needs. The financial exclusion of women is a global problem, with approximately 1 billion women that do not have formal financial services, due to persistent barriers in access to identification documents, mobile phones, digital skills, financial capability, as well as inappropriate products and more. 



The situation is reflective in Sub-Saharan Africa where according to the World Bank, only 37 percent of women have a bank account, compared with 48 percent of men, a gap that has only widened over the past several years. Therefore, it is critical for DFIs, investors and other financial intermediaries to apply a gender-lens in investment analysis and decision-making, not just as a “nice-to-have,” but core to any strategic action. Furthermore, the pandemic has underscored the need for robust digital infrastructure as a platform to support financial inclusion and women’s economic empowerment. Third, there is a need for technical assistance facilities to provide women-led SMEs with advisory services to help them make more informed decisions and adjust their business models, enabling them to survive the pandemic while setting themselves up for post-pandemic growth.



 The covid-19 pandemic is not only a health crisis but also an economic crisis that could cause Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth rate to drop down to -5.1 percent in 2020. Implementing a targeted gender-lens approach to increase support to women-led SMEs will be critical to bridging the financing gap for women estimated at US $42 billion and for Africa’s covid-19 economic recovery efforts.



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Iftin Fatah is a Senior Investment Officer at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The views expressed herein are her own.

Iftin Fatah pic

Opinion: Now is the time for the world to rally behind women in business

Across Africa hundreds of thousands of people have contracted Covid-19 since the outbreak in late 2019.



 While official statistics are cause for concern the true numbers are undoubtedly much higher.The outbreak has exposed the weak underbelly of our Continent’s health care systems. For too long they have been under-resourced, under-funded and sometimes mismanaged. As Africa braces for a rise in infections it is time to look at what can be done to improve healthcare before it is too late.



 Health is an investment in a nation’s wellbeing and a vehicle for national value creation. Healthy girls and boys go to school, healthy women and men contribute to society, live longer and lead more productive lives. Healthy people are able to save financially, vaccinate their children and do not place added strain on a country’s health infrastructure. There is a direct benefit to investment in healthcare and unlocking economic growth. If only it was that simple.



 Across Africa there is still much work to be done in building our ability to cater to the millions of patients who need vital medicines or hospital care each year. Many pharmaceutical companies, like MSD, have the capacity to be part of the solution. But, one thing is clear: We cannot do it alone. To radically improve access to medicines and vaccines and for improved healthcare, we need partnerships. The investments that have really paid off in terms of exponential increase in health impact have been done with partners. Medicines Save Lives. 



Partnerships Save Nations.For decades, vast parts of West Africa were suffering from deadly outbreaks of Ebola for which there was no cure. The 2014 outbreak was one of the largest, resulting in over 4000 deaths as the virus spread across DRC, Guinea,Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. In 2014, MSD had a vaccine in its portfolio to prevent the damaging consequences of an Ebola outbreak.



 There have been further Ebola outbreaks since 2014, but they have been curtailed. We now have over 300 000 doses of the vaccine saving lives in the region. This breakthrough was only possible due to partnerships with African governments, the World Health Organisation,NGO’s, the scientific community and the local communities. Accelerate towards One African Market I am often caught saying ‘vaccines don’t work, vaccination does’. If you don’t get a vaccine, you are not protected. It is not good enough to just make the product available, we have to ensure it gets to those who need it.



 We want to support the acceleration of ‘One African Market’. Right now patients in sub-saharan Africa are often not getting access to lifesaving products due to regulatory delays. The vision of having one African Medicines Agency,like the European Medicines Agency in Europe, is a great one. If we all focus on patient access as the goal, we should be partnering to make this vision a reality so that patients don’t have to suffer.



 Let’s aim to leapfrog not catch up Big data and the power of digital have the potential to transform health in a fundamental way. Already in many African countries, a whole generation jumped from no internet to accessing internet on their phones – completely leapfrogging dial up on their desktops. Rather than playing catch up, Africans should be using data and digital to enable a fundamental shift in how we seek and provide healthcare. We have an opportunity to reimagine healthcare.



Dr. Priya Agrawal – Managing Director, MSD South Africa and Sub Saharan Africa

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

COMMENT: How Africa should use data and digital to protect itself.

At a signing ceremony in Harare on the 29th July, the Commercial Farmers Union President, alongside other former Commercial Farmers signed a deal with the Zimbabwe Government to say that a compensation amount of 3.5 billion US dollars would be sought to pay compensation to commercial farmers who had been evicted from their farms.



 On the face of it, it all sounds quite hopeful; except for the fact that the Zimbabwe Government hasn’t got any of the 3.5 billion to pay.&nbsp; &nbsp; There is a solution here though: a joint team of Commercial Farmers and the Zimbabwe Government is launching an offensive to head off to raise the money from wherever they can. Zimbabwe commercial farmers, now spread across the globe, are itching to get sight of the agreement.&nbsp; Only a few have so far been allowed to see it, despite many calls for it to be scrutinised independently.&nbsp; This has created a high degree of mistrust as to what is really happening.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="834" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-1110x834.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-377703" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-1110x834.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-768x577.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-1536x1154.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-2048x1539.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-696x523.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-1068x802.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-1920x1442.jpg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMG_0910-1-600x451.jpg 600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>Ben Freeth</figcaption></figure>



 One lawyer I spoke to did manage to go around to the Commercial Farmers Union and look at the agreement.&nbsp; He came away shaking his head.&nbsp; He told me that the agreement [that has subsequently been signed] was outside the framework of the Zimbabwe Constitution and Zimbabwe law.&nbsp; The laid down procedures for compensation in Zimbabwe’s own Constitution have been bypassed. Secondly the exchange control act doesn’t allow money to be paid in US dollars, particularly of its paid outside the country to farmers scattered far and wide.&nbsp; There have many cases already where contracts in US dollars have been converted to Zimbabwe currency at hugely prejudicial rates.&nbsp; Thirdly, parliament hasn’t given any assent to seeking a loan agreement of this magnitude;&nbsp; and fourthly the agreement seems to lock the title deed owner in to just getting money for improvements and nothing for the land or stolen crops, livestock, machinery or other losses associated with the forced evictions.



 Assuming these legal aspects are able to be sorted out, what about the amount being agreed?&nbsp; Under international law it is unquestionably a very poor deal.&nbsp; Heinrich Von Pezold did a full claim under international law due to a bilateral investment treaty and was awarded a sum of close to 200 million US dollars.&nbsp; Admittedly he was a large Investor,&nbsp; but if the same criteria of international law were used for the rest of the farmers, the bill would be at least 5 times the current amount &#8211; and probably considerably more. &nbsp;



 So what are the chances of money being able to be raised?&nbsp; Zimbabwes foreign debt stands at 7 billion &#8211; but perhaps quite a lot more. Our credit rating is down with the very worst of the defaulters.&nbsp; All recent attempts to borrow more money have been a failure.



 On top of that there is the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act.&nbsp; This is Marshall type plan to rebuild Zimbabwe; but the plan needs Zimbabwe to put the right foundational rule of law parameters in place.&nbsp;



One of these is following the international law judgments of the Southern African Development CommunityTribunal.&nbsp; This lays down how property rights should be respected &#8211; and that fair compensation should be paid according to international law. &nbsp; In a country where the people are hungry, the economy is collapsing and the army and the police are on the streets committing human rights violations against the people, there will be precious little appetite to put money towards compensating a bunch of white farmers.&nbsp; If there was a real will to restore property rights,&nbsp; come back to the rule of law and utilise the skills base that’s currently dormant, it might well be a different story;&nbsp; but it seems that this is simply another propaganda exercise by the Zimbabwe Government to have people believe that all is now well in Zimbabwe. &nbsp;

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OPINION: Inside Zimbabwe’s $3.5 bn deal for farmers- Ben Freeth

I never knew that our entire healthcare infrastructure was in such a bad state. Those were the sentiments expressed by Nigeria’s Chairman of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, Boss Mustapha, as he updated leadership of the National Assembly on the fight against the pandemic. This virus provides an opportunity to examine our national health system in dire need of reforms and funding; the Chairman pointed out to the lawmakers.



Conspicuously absent from recommendations for legislative reform was a key issue highlighted by COVID-19: mental health. Government-mandated social distancing and the implementation of other public health guidelines have led to emotional anguish and psychological challenges amidst restrictions on public life, economic hardship, and illness. Rather than mental health being at the periphery, a robust national response to this novel virus mandates the issue takes front and center stage.



A lack of research on Nigeria’s mental health demographics has contributed to it being a low priority among policymakers and inadequately funded. The largest nationally representative study on general mental health in the country was published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2004 — over 15 years ago! The research found that one in eight Nigerians would develop a mental health condition during their lifetime and that fewer than 10% have access to the care they need. Recent investigations are even more sober. According to the 2018 Nigeria National Depression report, produced by Joy, Inc., in partnership with NOI Polls, a leading polling organization in West Africa, and research partners at Yale, one in three Nigerians are experiencing depressive symptoms. In a country that surpasses 200 million, it means over 60 million Nigerians are at risk of depression. As isolation intertwines with mortality and hunger, these individuals could be pushed over the edge.



The country does not have nearly enough resources to tend to this impending crisis. Infrastructure is deficient with only eight federal neuropsychiatric hospitals in Nigeria, and three operating at the state level. Mental health workers have complained that these facilities are too few, face strained budgets, poor work conditions, staffing issues, and residents experience abuse. At the community level, mental health care is limited, which falls short of the global standard set out by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. Human capacity is also a challenge. The Association of Psychiatrists in Nigeria has only 250 psychiatrists registered to it when millions potentially face mental health challenges. Nigeria’s poor mental health infrastructure is currently governed by a framework that has roots that date back to 1916. Starting as an ordinance in the British colonial era, the statute became codified as a law called the Lunacy Act of 1958. To put the law in perspective, it was adopted two years before Nigeria’s independence. In 2003, the Nigerian Mental Health Act was proposed to replace the Lunacy Act. It failed to pass and was eventually withdrawn from the Senate in April 2009. It was reintroduced in 2013, but also did not make it through the legislative process.



Recently, there has also been movement on mental health legislation. In November 2019, the Senate passed a mental health bill for second reading. Progress continued in February this year, when the upper chamber held a public hearing on the proposed law. If the history of failed efforts is to be our guide, however, there is little reason to think there will be passage of the legislation.



Though the proposed mental health bill may seem like progress, it still fails to adequately address key issues of quality care, comprehensive community response, funding, and respecting the human rights of those with psychological conditions in Nigeria. As policymakers are planning a comprehensive approach to this virus, mental health and its governing architecture must be part of the package.



Those debating macroeconomic interventions from stimulus funds to conditional cash transfers should take heed as well. As we deliberate the best way to reignite growth, understanding the profound link between mental health and economic development is crucial. A 2016 WHO led study quantified the impact, estimating that for every $1 put into scaled up treatment for common mental health conditions, there is a return of $4 in improved health and work productivity. Demonstrating how promoting mental health serves as a fiscal enabler.



Narrow understandings of epidemiological responses also lead to public health blind spots. For instance, the most notable exchange of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19’s discussion with the National Assembly concerned hazard pay to frontline health workers. Reducing the issue of support to simply cash.



Medical workers need more than finances. Their mental health is at risk as they endure long hours, bear extreme isolation, cope with dwindling medical supplies, and are in constant proximity to death. Research published by the Journal of the American Medical Association highlights the psychological fallout. The study examined the mental health outcomes of 1,257 health care workers attending to COVID-19 patients in 34 hospitals in China. Many experienced symptoms of depression (50%), anxiety (45%), insomnia (34%), and psychological distress (71.5%). Nurses and women were the hardest hit, reporting especially severe symptoms — modeling other polls which show COVID-19 has had a negative impact on women and mothers at higher levels — demonstrating that suffering has been disproportionate along gender lines. Additionally, Frontline workers in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, exhibited a greater psychological burden than Chinese health care workers father away. Meaning our most critical lines of defense, those health officials engaged day-to-day against the virus, are the most psychologically at risk. This could result in more mistakes on the job and burnout, leading to worse outcomes for patients.



A comprehensive public health response to COVID-19 should include mental health preparedness. The United Nations recently sounded the alarm to the international community to do more to protect those with increased mental vulnerabilities during this period. Policymakers in Nigeria need to continuously elevate mental health as a vital part of the national discussion. The first place they could start is by prioritizing passage of mental health legislation that is more human rights centered and updating the national mental health policy. Nigeria needs a new regulatory framework that eschews colonial origins and supports those with mental health conditions during this pandemic.



By Chime Asonye and Hauwa Ojeifo

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Mental health legislation could help Nigeria survive COVID-19

At one time or another, nations and individuals confront crisis points – moments of existential challenge that also open up new possibilities. African countries, at just such a crisis point as a result of the novel coronavirus, face three possible outcomes post-pandemic: play catch-up, stand still or fall even further behind the industrialized world1.



With this crisis comes an economic disruption of unprecedented proportion. To avoid falling further behind, Africans must narrow the scientific and technology gap and leverage our comparative advantages. It is time for Africa to adopt radical technological and policy innovations. The global economy is increasingly driven by science-based and patent-intensive systems. Through investments in molecular technology, AI and other technologies the 4th industrial Revolution is ushering in, they can overcome existing barriers to entry.



Catching Up



India offers an example of how to catch up. There, two key developments in the sixties and seventies sharply altered the country’s trajectory.



In 1965, following past famines crises, India imported 250 tons of high-yielding Mexican dwarf wheat seed varieties for wide-scale testing on farms. Early positive results led to the importation of a further 18,000 tons. Along with the use of irrigation and other innovations adopted by farmers, Indian agriculture was transformed.



Within five years, India produced enough grains to support its population and, even following a drought in 1979, had no need to import grain. Overall, the country’s wheat and rice production tripled between 1961 and 1980. Radical policy response to famine-induced crisis birthed the Green Revolution.



India’s pharmaceutical sector also experienced a crisis-inflection point in 1972, when the government passed the Patents Act, which enabled domestic firms to replicate drugs that had been patented by multinational corporations. Local companies have since dominated the global market through reverse-engineering leading to generic medicines that are far more affordable than patented ones. Radical policy response to crisis-induced shortage of medicines transformed Indian Pharma.



Falling Behind



Africa processes a very small proportion of its agricultural produce. We continue to export raw commodities like cocoa, timber and cotton that others process and re-sell to Africa at a much higher valuation. Our continent also has sufficient sunlight, wind and hydropower, technologies that can power Africa sustainably, and other regions besides.



Critically, Africa also has a median age of 19, far younger than that of any continent, a potential demographic dividend of young innovation-driven workers and a relatively small proportion of elderly workers. This human capital will foster Africa’s forging ahead.



If we fail to harness new technologies and leverage our strengths to create abundant high paying manufacturing and service jobs to compete within global supply chains, then we risk falling even farther behind on socioeconomic terms.



Forging ahead



To forge ahead, Africa will first have to return swiftly to economic growth. Beyond that, diversifying our economies will be critical, particularly for those countries that are dependent on one or two mineral resources or commodities. Above all, African companies must deepen capacities for competitive advantage to master new technologies in emerging sectors.



African innovators need a robust innovation framework and a better enabling environment to master the so-called industrial biology embedded in the 4th Industrial Revolution. For instance, firms in Morocco, Senegal, Nigeria and some other African countries have developed COVID-19 test kits but face a difficult path to commercialization.



China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is once more illustrative of a dynamic industrial policy. It is targeting ambitious increases in domestic firms’ share of the global medical supplies market. The government has provided cheap land for factories subsidized loans, helps them to secure a supply chain of raw materials, and to stimulate domestic demand by incentivizing hospitals and companies to use their products.



And there are powerful examples right here on the continent. South Africa successfully financed the production of The National Ventilator Project to address COVID-19, developing prototypes, securing component supply chains, and a manufacturing facility. The project owes its success in part to strong government support and broad coordination among economic and technological agencies. As with South Africa, the rest of the continent would benefit from strong innovation systems that are part of national budgeting and planning frameworks.



African businesses have a critical role to play, but so do African leaders, who must strike a delicate balance between state intervention and open markets. African governments are best placed to identify market failures and opportunities, and devise policies and regulations that benefit Africa’s private sector and its people.



Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, is the Senior Special Adviser on Industrialization to the President, AfDB, he is a fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering and Professorial Fellow, United Nations University.

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OPINION: COVID-19 – will Africa catch up, stand still or fall further behind?

It says a lot about the character of Andrew Mlangeni that when he was released from prison in 1989 – for crimes he didn’t commit, by the way – he returned to his humble abode in Dube, in Soweto, near Johannesburg; the very family home where police burst into his bedroom in the middle of a cold winter’s night in 1963 to arrest him.



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This home was as humble and wholesome as the man’s approach to life. Sure, Mlangeni enjoyed a convivial party and the golf course, but not for him sipping Chivas Regal in a polo club, nor huge flashy houses, nor the latest luxury cars; never greed, nor vast wealth, for Andrew Mlangeni. For what? He would have said. During all those murky years of the President Jacob Zuma, when did anyone ever see the name of Mlangeni come up? Never.



“He was a principled man, of note,” says former finance minister and parliamentary colleague Nhlanlha Nene.



Principle that cost Mlangeni &nbsp;more than a quarter of his life behind bars for something he didn’t do. He told me that the police merely transferred the charges of sabotage levelled at his comrade, the late former defence minister Joe Modise, to him.



“I didn’t do anything!” Mlangeni told me half a century later. He pleaded guilty with Nelson Mandela &nbsp;and his comrades in a show of solidarity intended to put the apartheid government on trial. It worked and overnight the accused transcended criminal charges to be seen as the freedom fighting Benjamin Franklins of Africa.



Mlangeni grew up in Soweto as a towering man of principle, who never backed down. When he was arrested in 1963, police tortured him brutally with electrodes and their fists. In a chance meeting in 2010, ironically in the colonial splendour of the Rand Club in downtown Johannesburg, Mlangeni &nbsp;puffed on a Consulate cigarette, with a group of friends,as he told me of this torture 50 years before. The police tortured him with electrodes and dished out arguably the worst beating inflicted on any of the Rivonia trialists. He said at one point the police were waterboarding him; that is, holding a bag over his head while they poured water through.



“I felt my lungs fill up, I was drowning, I was gone…then one of the police hit me hard in the stomach and all of the water spurted out of me and I was OK!”



All of us listening, over post lunch drinks, laughed including the late veteran photographer, Alf Kumalo, who once had his skull cracked in police cells. If you have suffered through politics or journalism, as Alf had in both, you tend to see the funny side of the ugliest of moments.



Everyone has and Andrew Mlangeni story including Sello Hatang the chief executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation.



“He called me Murwa because I shared a first name with his son. He always made time for me, and always brought a smile to my face with his dry, self-deprecating sense of humour. When asked one day about his lifelong smoking habit, for instance, he responded: It has ruined my singing voice.’’ When asked on another occasion, late in life, if he was still playing golf, he said: ‘If not for my knee I would still be out on the tee,’” recalls Hatang.



It was fitting, in 2018, that Mlangeni was awarded the prestigious freedom of Johannesburg – the city where he was put in chains and incarcerated a lifetime ago. A precious gift of freedom to a man who knew how hard and painful it was to achieve. &nbsp;

Andrew Mlangeni

How a brutal torturer saved Andrew Mlangeni from death by drowning.

Andrew Mlangeni represented the views of the working class, a young lion, a man of integrity, and a person who advocated the political revolution for South Africa. He was active in the struggle against apartheid. The rights of especially the black majority were seriously curtailed and they did not have the right to vote and they were stripped of their citizenship, which led many of them fail to acquire basic education and better healthcare and now post democracy, black people started to have electricity and basic human rights. Our generation has a lot to do in continuing to transform South Africa, and above all, we must learn from this generation that was very smart to have a project preparation for South African democracy, a room for shared growth, inclusive growth and stakeholder capitalism.



Isithwalandwe Andrew Mlangeni was very discipline, very strong and tough. He was not defining a revolution through holding a political position but to serve where he was requested by the movement. He was a Rivonia Trialist, a trained silent revolutionary, with traits of Marketing the revolution and recruiting the right future legionaries. was active in the struggle against apartheid



Andrew Mlangeni had national purpose influence to others to accomplish the mission by providing purpose, direction, and motivation. He remained a humble leader. He believed in African Nationalism.



Apartheid was a policy of racial segregation and discrimination enforced by the white minority government in South Africa from 1948 until the early 1990s. South Africans were banned from interracial marriage and the government had complete authority to keep any areas for whites only. Thousands of homes in racially mixed areas were destroyed. Dennis Goldberg was one of the leaders who wanted to see a united South Africa and decided not to enjoy the benefits.



Apartheid was officially described as a crime against humanity by the United Nations General Assembly in 1966, its eradication is one of the major positive human rights stories of the 20th century.



South African youth must embrace transformative constitutionalism and at the heart of it, is a commitment to substantive reasoning, to examining the underlying principles that inform laws themselves and judicial reaction to those laws. Ethics, Practical wisdom and courage is required from all South Africans alive, to build a better future for generations to come.



Andrew Mlangeni, Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu, Govan Mbeki, Ahmed Kathrada, Denis Goldberg and others were sentenced to life in prison on charges of sabotage on June 12, 1964. He was released in 1989 after negotiations with the apartheid government started. Now we are talking because they were pacesetters and had wisdom to sacrifice for all of us to have a better future.



In 1999 Mlangeni was awarded the Order for Meritorious Service Class I: Gold. In 2016 he received the Freedom of the City of Johannesburg. In July 2018 he received the prestigious Freedom of the City of London, after being unable to travel to the United Kingdom when the honour was originally bestowed on him in 2016.



May His Soul Rest in Peace.



Miyelani Mkhabela

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Andrew Mlangeni, a working class young lion of Africa

When French President Emmanuel Macron made his first trip outside Europe since the COVID-19 lockdown, he chose to visit Mauritania for the G5 Sahel summit. The Sahel region of Africa is faced with persistent terrorism and security threats with international implications. But listening carefully to Macron’s first speech in Nouakchott, it was clear the he was also using the visit to promote a sovereign debt relief initiative set up in April at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. The G20 had agreed at that time to suspend incoming debt service from low income countries for eight months to allow them to redirect funds to cover the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mauritania will benefit from this initiative. As seen at this weekend’s G20 follow-up meeting, France continues to play a pivotal role in supporting the debt service standstill for the world’s poorest countries, mainly in Africa. By doing so, it is making a frank push for multilateralism against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions between superpowers, the increasingly entrenched isolationism of the United States, the fallout of Brexit, and a rising criticism of China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. The message is clear: the world is facing debt distress because of COVID-19 and the world should work collectively to find solutions. At the nexus of the debt relief efforts is the French Treasury, which hosts the Paris Club, an ad hoc negotiating forum of 22 creditor governments. The Paris Club secretariat is coordinating the implementation of the debt service suspension with G20 participants. Without doubt, many African debtors will be facing intense debt distress in 2020. Already in late 2019, the tail end of the debt financing cycle had been reached. Borrowing countries had taken advantage of high commodity prices, a low-inflation environment, and excess savings in developed markets seeking high-yield investments. The arrival of COVID-19 in early 2020 has drained national budgets and hindered new financing, revealing debt servicing vulnerabilities. In such a context, the G20 initiative is not a panacea. The suspension of debt payments will allow countries with growing primary deficits to pay for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. It will help boost economic activity. But the real impact of the G20 initiative is paving the way for reinforced multilateralism in a world of growing political disengagement. At the root of the G20 initiative is a comprehensive review of the sovereign debts of countries, including debts to China. Very little information has existed concerning the terms of Chinese bilateral and commercial lending and China is not a member of the OECD Creditor Reporting System. By making debt transparency key to the success of the G20 initiative, a multilateral framework has been created to delve further into the composition and risks of sovereign debts. The initiative also serves to reset the stage for a fairer sharing of the costs of debt relief across all creditor groups. This is particularly important when considering the critical role of China in sovereign financing today and the difficulty gauging any debt relief they may provide. As an illustration, how will hesitating private creditors, another crucial source of hard currency, be convinced to participate in sovereign debt restructurings if they fear their efforts could subsidize China’s debt recoveries? By promoting G20 debt relief at the recent G5 Sahel summit in Mauritania, France reconfirmed its multilateral convictions. Countries can come together to address security threats and terrorism as well as find better and longer-lasting solutions for sovereign debt sustainability. By reinforcing the role of the Paris Club, France is breathing new life into multilateralism at a critical time.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Andrew Roche has over 20 years of experience advising countries on Paris Club, London Club and commercial debt restructurings, including World Bank sponsored operations. He is part of the FRANKLIN-FINEXEM consortium providing legal and financial sovereign advisory services to debtor countries in the framework of the G20 debt relief initiative.</li></ul>

COMMENT: G20 Debt relief: a push for multilateralism in a increasingly fragmented world

The energy sector currently accounts for two-thirds of global carbon emissions and expedited progress on energy efficiency and low-carbon sources in the energy mix is required to achieve deep decarbonization.



1. We need an energy transition.



Business as usual will use up the Paris Agreement carbon budget within 20-30 years and bring us towards a hothouse earth. We need a transition from energy that emits greenhouse gases to renewable energy to avoid this fate.



2. We know what we need to do.



The broad shape of the energy transition is to reduce demand where possible through energy efficiency and behavioural change, decarbonize electricity, electrify everything you can and use some variety of renewable-based hydrogen for the rest. To transition at the necessary pace may also require the use of biomass and emissions removal technologies.



3. The energy transition will be difficult.



Fossil fuels provide around 80% of global energy supply and are the foundation of modern society. Many countries and companies are dependent on the wealth generated by fossil fuels and the Bank of England has noted that up to $20 trillion of assets are at risk from the energy transition. South African Banks must work with public sector, for mitigation and policy mindfulness to allow the economy to be ready with measures and targets set.



4. The forces of transition are likely to prevail.



Those who would benefit from a transition vastly outnumber those who benefit from continuity; 80% of people live in countries that import fossil fuels. Just 1% of the global workforce works in the fossil fuel industry and a large share of the rents from fossil fuels flow into the hands of a small number of fossil fuel exporters.



We are living in a fast changing world and South Africa needs to have foresight on what will replace coal exporting , we can use it locally while catching up to make our production cost effective.



5. The energy transition is just.



The global view is, Fossil fuels are used mainly by the rich and the few, while their costs are shouldered mainly by the poor and the many. In contrast, renewables are everywhere, can be deployed at any scale and are being used to solve last-mile problems and provide electricity to the 1 billion people who lack it. Domestically, we are one of the leading exporter of coal, which require reflectiveness and mindfulness leadership on policy transitions. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts an energy transition that will create more new energy jobs than fossil fuel jobs, while South Africa can lose jobs when the transition is not planned well.



6. We have technology solutions.



There are rising numbers of technology solutions available to start the transition in a cost-effective manner. Efficiency gains have already curbed energy demand growth from 3% to around 1% on average and could drive growth still lower. Reflecting on the manufacturing technologies we can take advantage to match the global manufacturing industry standards and have smart factories and smart industries with innovation factor driven tier systems.



7. Incumbents are at risk.



Peaking demand and technological competition put incumbent players in the energy system at considerable risk of lower prices and stranded assets if they fail to react in time. Coal became too expensive to the South African economy, making electricity prices more expensive to businesses and households, which suggest adaptation to renewables and transition to cost effective electricity. That’s the only way South African manufacturing industry can peak and be competitive. Coal is too expensive to the South African economy, we must manage production to serve the required just transition phase and decarbonize the future economy.



8. We need more policy action to reach Paris goals.



Policy-makers need to take much more assertive action if they wish to drive the transition fast enough to meet the aspirations of the Paris Agreement. There is tremendous scope for major policy action.



9. Policy-makers need to plan for change.



Policy-makers need to retool fossil fuel dependent states and systems, to retrain workers in order to ensure that the transition is just, to plan for new sources of tax revenue and to hold back from investing capital in assets which are likely to be stranded by the transition. Eskom and coal companies must start training a pool of their staff for the just transition or renewable energy materials and management of systems. Transformation must be communicated to all staff in time and have a decade or two decade plan that will make ease to tailored programmes to shape human capital to the decarbonized future economy.



It remains uncertain on how the political economy will play out in South Africa. Every country is different and there is no single solution. Some countries&#8217; fossil fuel interests have been able to seize the reins of government to try to hold back an energy transition, while the energy transition will also create new constituencies that benefit from investment and growth as well as jobs in the wider economy. The sustainability and Impact Investment criteria forces unlisted investments and banks adapt to the just transition.



Miyelani Mkhabela is an Executive Director for Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services.

miyelani mkhabela

Nine ways to decarbonize the South African energy sector

Nelson Mandela once said that he may have been in prison for 27 years but he was not confined for one day because he could read and that lent his spirit freedom.



It appears that hunger for literacy may have condemned Mandela and his comrades to a life behind bars. On the eve of Mandela Day, July 18 which would have been his 102nd birthday, it is interesting to speculate that this joy of reading may have set in motion of chain of events that led to a life behind bars for his comrades in the underground.



One crisp winter afternoon on July 11 1963 police scooped up almost the entire leadership of the underground as they met in a small cottage the back of Liliesleaf farm, in Rivonia, Johannesburg, in a Trojan horse-style raid, with dogs and officers concealed in a pharmacy van. They arrested a ‘who’s who of the struggle: Govan Mbeki; Ray Mahlaba; Denis Goldberg; Walter Sisulu; Ahmed Kathrada; and Andrew Mlangeni.



“Ons het de jackpot!” said the triumphant arresting officer, as he telephoned the police station to inform his colleagues of the raid. In English, we have hit the jackpot. The police couldn’t believe their luck as they chained who they saw and desperadoes in a circle, on the Liliesleaf lawn,and allowed their dogs to snap at them.



“It is high treason chaps,” said Mbeki as the van was driven away. The captured laughed but they all knew the charges they were to face meant the death sentence. The armed struggle and bombings they had been running for many months had destroyed many key installations.



How the raid on Rivonia, which lent its name to the trial in which all were sentenced to life, came about has been argued over for years. Theories abound from informants, to nosey neighbours, to foreign spies.



There could be another theory connected to Mandela’s love of reading. Mbeki et al used to pretend to be farm workers at Liliesleaf, as part of their cover. They were so good at this that they used to sell the vegetables they grew to the nearby Rivonia police! So the police put food on the table through the hard work of revolutionaries, yet never twigged who grew it.



What could have given the Liliesleaf crew away was their love of reading. Being intellectual revolutionaries they all devoured daily newspapers that aroused suspicion. Surviving fellow farm workers recalled in interviews, in 2012, that they told people they worked with “black men with newspapers” – a rarity in 1960s South Africa.



Another incident, depicted in the painting by Kevin Krapf at the top of this article, involving Nelson Mandela reading a newspaper, heightened that suspicion.



 A nearby farmer  by the name of Ernest Vickers called in to see Arthur Goldreich, an activist who lived in the farm as a front for the underground. Vickers was shocked to see a black man sitting in the lounge with his feet up on the coffee table reading a newspaper. The man was lawyer Mandela who was pretending to be a domestic worker at the farm and was to become his country’s first democratically elected president.



Unbelievably, in this day and age, Vickers reported what he had seen to the Rivonia police, maybe as it was taking another delivery of vegetables.  Years later, Vickers was convinced that it was this report that led to the raid and life imprisonment. He was also worried about the repercussion there could be for his own family.



Maybe ?&nbsp; Maybe not. It could be forever lost in the mist of times that shroud the rich Mandela story. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

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“It is high treason chaps!”-  How the joy of reading could have put Nelson Mandela and his struggle comrades behind bars.

Ethiopia’s Water Minister Seleshi Bekele confirmed on Wednesday, July 15, that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has started to fill.



He tweeted: “The inflow into the reservoir due to heavy rainfall and runoff exceeded the outflow and created natural pooling. This continues until overflow is triggered soon.”



He repeated this line to the state broadcaster, saying that the reservoir was filling “in line with the natural process” and that “[t]he construction of the dam and the filling of the water go hand in hand&#8221;.



Satellite images show that the reservoir behind the almost completed dam wall is starting to fill, but Mr Bekele failed to address the question of whether or not the country closed the dam’s culverts.



His pronouncements followed a breakdown in African Union (AU) mediated talks – involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan – on Tuesday, July 14, about the filling and operation of the GERD.



According to experts, the current stage of construction on the dam wall means that water will inevitably back up until the reservoir reaches its low point. The dam – with a mammoth capacity of 74 billion cubic metres (bcm) – is estimated to retain 4.9 bcm in 2020, with another 13.5 bcm to be retained the following year.



The total annual flow of the Blue Nile – the main tributary to the Nile – is about 49 bcm.



One of the main obstacles to reaching an agreement has been the schedule for filling the dam: Ethiopia proposes five to seven years and Egypt insists on 12 to 20 years.



Egypt and Sudan want a dispute resolution mechanism built into the agreement as well as assurances about water flows during times of drought.



Cairo has accused Addis Ababa of abandoning the 2015 Declaration of Principles, one of which is that the dam should not be filled without an agreement being in place.



The GERD is set to become the continent’s largest hydroelectric project and is expected to generate 6,000 MW of electricity per year, once fully operational, in a country which currently has low levels of electrification. It is central to Ethiopia’s developmental aspirations and the project has created a great deal of national pride, both due to its scale and ambition but also due to the way in which the country opted to finance the mega-project, making using of mostly domestic financing.



The confrontation with Egypt, specifically, has boosted Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s standing domestically, with the country seen to be standing up to its northern counterpart and, following its refusal to sign a US-sponsored agreement in Washington DC in February, its powerful allies.



With Ethiopia riven by ethnic tensions and deadly communal violence sparked by the targeted killing of prominent musician and ethnic rights activist, Haacaaluu Hundeessaa, in the capital on June 29, Mr Abiy will probably not mind the diplomatic spat with Egypt at a time when his pan-Ethiopian project is being threatened by internecine conflict.



Mr Abiy is also dealing with the political uncertainty created by Parliament’s decision to postpone the country’s general elections to “nine to 12 months after the coronavirus is deemed not to be a public health concern&#8221;, along with an extension of the prime minister’s term.



Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi finds himself in a very different position. Cairo is being made to look quite impotent as Ethiopia presents the filling of the GERD as fait accompli.



We previously said that their decision to proceed unilaterally would increase regional tensions and give rise to significant sabre-rattling from the parties involved. However, we said we did not expect the dispute to escalate into a military confrontation, despite some inflammatory comments from both Egyptian and Ethiopian officials, and we stand by that assessment.



It should be noted that Egypt has a large and sophisticated military – receiving significant military aid from the US – and that military figures play a crucial role in the government.



Specifically, Egypt has a modern and well-equipped air force. It does not possess strategic long-range bombers or long-range ballistic missile capacity; nevertheless, Ethiopia reportedly deployed anti-aircraft missiles in the vicinity of the Renaissance Dam in May in what was seen as a symbolic rather than strategic move.



The filling of the GERD without an agreement in place was not entirely unexpected and Ethiopian officials made it known that it would happen with the arrival of the rainy season.



Previous talks sponsored by the US and World Bank proved unsuccessful, partly due to Ethiopia’s perception that Egypt’s close ties to the US made Washington a biased arbiter.



It had been hoped that AU-brokered talks would deliver an agreement, and the lack of progress in that respect is concerning.



Egypt has also approached the UN Security Council to pressure Ethiopia, resulting in angry exchanges between ambassadors.



Over the short to medium term, regional tensions will remain heightened and diplomatic efforts are sure to continue. More provocative statements by officials from the affected countries are also expected, making efforts to reach an agreement all the more difficult.



Louw Nel – Political Analyst

River Nile

Nile Valley – Ethiopia starts to fill Renaissance Dam as Egypt bristles

Why the Covid-19 crisis proves the power and promise of the AfCFTA







The African Continental Free Trade Agreement was ratified last year but this year’s onset of the covid-19 pandemic forced African Union leaders to postpone its taking effect. The disease has had a serious impact on the continent, having claimed prominent leaders and infecting 578,207 in confirmed cases as of July 12th according to the Africa CDC, Johns Hopkins and government data. The economic fallout has probably been even more severe; lockdowns and supply chain seizures to import dependent African nations have severely impacted incomes and livelihoods for Africa’s largely informal workforce. However, the crisis has focused the minds of African policy makers around the necessity to create a more resilient healthcare system and the need to manufacture more of its critical needs at home. This renewed focus on productive self sufficiency can be assisted significantly by implementing the AfCFTA.



Covid-19 has provided the previously missing urgency amongst leaders around developing the sort of coherent industrial policy necessary to get any benefit from a continental free trade zone. Africa manufactures very little at the moment and many critics rightly questioned the wisdom of liberalizing internal borders without having African produced goods to sell across them. There is still great risk that creating this internal free market gets exploited by existing low-cost producers in Asia and Europe, limiting the job-creating potential its architects intend. But the recent response to the novel coronavirus may offer a blueprint on how to ensure the realization of the AfCFTA dream.



The vast market created by AfCFTA will provide an immediate boon to nascent plans being guided by the African CDC, NEPAD and others to produce various critical healthcare items such as pharmaceutical compounds, PPE and ventilators in countries such as Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya. The sudden demand for these life saving products and the enormous logistical challenges African nations suffered attempting to secure supplies from East Asia and Western Europe has left a lasting impression. During the initial frenzy of procurement countries around the globe raced to stockpile PPE and ventilators, in many cases shutting individual African nations who lacked the financial firepower and sufficient order quantities to elbow into global queues for scarce supplies at mainly Chinese manufacturers.



In response, the African Union launched a pooled procurement online market place to aggregate the orders of African nations. Now leaders and businessmen are going a step further – setting up supply for this local demand on African soil. A range of textile firms, diaper manufacturers and equipment makers are adding additional lines and re-purposing existing capacity to produce PPE, medical equipment and ventilators. A surfeit of concessional finance, international donors and grants from African philanthropists such as Aliko Dangote and Mike Adenuga has bolstered the purchasing power of African health ministries, jump starting demand for new output.



AfCFTA’s implementation can help sustain the opportunity for new production capacity and demonstrate the power of the shared market to would-be entrepreneurs in other sectors. The key deciding factor for the success of the continental free zone will be Africa’s indigenous business community rising to the occasion – manufacturing for the needs of Africa’s 1.2 billion consumers. To encourage those entrepreneurs and investors African governments and supranational indigenous bodies like the African Union should build on the lessons they have learned in rapidly coordinating to intervene in the covid-19 response. The same tools and institutional structures being pulled together to rapidly promote the production of healthcare items and vaccine delivery should immediately be expanded and adapted to FMCG, automotive assembly, apparel and other heavily consumed items across the African continent. It is only with this emphasis on local production that Africa will enjoy the dividends of the AfCFTA: jobs for its young, growing population and meaningful wealth creation for its business community and their investors. Franklin Olakunle Amoo is the managing partner of Baylis Emerging Markets, an investment firm focused on African industry and manufacturing. Baylis is a founding partner of the Africa Pandemic Response Alliance, an African led initiative coordinating the response to the covid-19 pandemic on the continent

cnbc

COMMENT: AfCFTA  is economic medicine Africa needs to recover from the covid-19 pandemic

A tribute to Cote d&#8217;Ívoire Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly by Akinwumi A. Adesina, Président, African Development Bank



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<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>July 8 was all like every normal day, focused on work. I had no inkling there would be a storm, even though we have weathered many storms and floods in Abidjan in recent times. Like a jolting bolt of thunder, everything changed when my wife, Grace, called my attention to a news item that the Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly had died. I told her this couldn’t be true as he just came back and as far as I knew he was fine. I quickly went to look at the news. I had not seen any official confirmation. I made frantic calls. Alas! Amadou Gon had died indeed. What a tragedy! This was a storm with massive lightening like no other. I couldn’t control my sadness. This man who had served his nation so loyally and with such dignity has passed on, while at work. My thoughts went to his dear wife and family who have been thrown into sorrow, suddenly. My mind went to President Alassane Ouattara, to whom he was a beloved son, a loyal partner and confidant for some 30 years. My mind went to the government of Côte d’Ivoire, and the nation where I lived for 5 years in the 1990s and now for another 5 years so far as President of the African Development Bank. A beautiful nation whom Amadou Gon served dutifully, diligently, passionately and faithfully until his last breath. Amadou Gon was an exemplary leader. He was my friend. I remember calling him while in Paris. I was concerned about him and although we had exchanged messages, I still was not satisfied. I wanted to hear his voice. We spoke. I was very happy he was well. Amadou Gon deserved to be well. He was such a great champion of programs to accelerate the development of his country. He carried the vision of the President and the government wholeheartedly into every meeting, into every discussion. We met very often, and every time I was always amazed at how this very humble and serious minded public servant always put the development of his country first. He worked very closely with the African Development Bank. He visited the Bank several times and took great interest in all matters that affect the Bank. He worked so hard with the Bank and several development partners to bring life to the social development policy of the government. A humble man. A selfless man. A faithful man. A shining light. We met and spoke together on several forums around the world: on the plane, at airports, in high level forums and summits. My impression of him was the same: calm; wise; insightful. A man of few words, whose every word was always well honed for impact. He spoke always from his heart. An he had a heart of gold. My heartfelt condolences go to his dear wife and family, and his aged mother. May God comfort them. My heartfelt condolences go to President Allassane Ouattara, President of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire. Mr. Président, you have lost your closest ally and confidant, who served you and his nation faithfully until his last breath, working for the good of Côte d’Ivoire. May God comfort you, the government and good people of Côte d’Ivoire. My dear brother, Amadou Gon, thank you for your friendship. I was looking forward to us meeting again, in our usual warm brotherly embrace, to chat on your favorite topic: development of Côte d’Ivoire. But Alas! That is no longer to be. I guard emotions and memories of your life &#8211; your great life; and dedication and contributions to your nation. Thank you Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly. Thank you my dear friend and brother, Amadou Gon. Rest well. You will be sorely missed.</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>

PRST Adesina (1)

Akinwumi Adesina pays tribute to  Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly

We’ve been through 9/11, load shedding and one of the worst droughts our country has ever seen.. Now in the thick of COVID-19, there is more evidence that we will learn, overcome and possibly emerge from this crisis all the better.



So here we are, on what feels like day 7 020 013 of Lockdown. Our country and the world is going through arguably one of the biggest seismic shifts of society (try say that three times fast) we’ve ever faced. And the one thing we can be sure of is that nothing will ever be the same again.



Crazy times have long, far reaching, deep societal impacts. History shows that these are mostly for the better because the result is a change in behaviour. And not just for now, forever. New fears are drummed into our heads, and we respond in a bold manner. New businesses are formed, and old ones die off. It’s the way of the world.



On the 10th of September, 2001 – you could walk up to an airline counter, buy a ticket with no ID, walk straight through to the gate, get on a plane, pop into the cockpit to say hi to the captain, and within reason do what you wanted. Post September 11 the whole world changed. Now we hold fears and precautions we never envisioned of before. We changed our travel behaviour. I would argue that travel today is safer, and better than it ever was before. But how, where and when we travel fundamentally changed since that fateful day.



Remember 2009? Life was hunky dory when without notice the lights went out across the country. South Africans learnt a new term called “load shedding” and it has been a hot topic for the past 11 years and will be for some time to come. The interesting change in behaviour we saw was that we became aware of a finite supply of electricity. In 2019 – South Africans used less electricity than they did in 2009. We learnt how to cope with less. Generators became a standard, and many new businesses and industries popped up.



In Cape Town 2016, a monumental drought changed a province. I don’t have access to any stats, but would imagine that water consumption in 2019 would be drastically lower than what it was in let’s say 2014. Capetonians are now deeply aware of water and the havoc a shortage can cause.



What does this all mean? Crazy times, change behaviour: forever.



Now here is the interesting part. What behaviour will change? I suspect we can all look at our individual industries and identify a few.



Will travel ever the same again; how comfortable do you feel with 300 strangers breathing the same air as you for 8 hours or more? Speaking of travel – how strict will nations become before they let “outsiders” in again? I suspect we will all have to travel with an “all clear” from a recognised doctor to any destination.



Cinemas and restaurants might have to change the experience to accommodate for more cautious customers.



How many people who normally read newspapers and magazines, have “fallen out of the habit” during this lockdown period, and are unlikely to ever pick one up again?



Many businesses have learnt that staff can work from home in a very effective manner. What does that mean for commuter patterns? If there is no more “drive time” what does it mean for Television and Radio audiences? What does it mean for OOH and other road side furniture?



Day time Television – always a powerful medium (even though under rated) might become even stronger. And streaming services like DSTV Now, and Showmax will continue to grow at an exponential rate and take their place in the sun.



The list could carry on for ages. Take your pick. Commercial property will never be the same, neither will hospitals, or how governments operate and I do believe we will see a spike in conservative nationalism.



Time will tell, but for those making business plans for the future, know that all bets are off.



The consumer will be different. The world will be vastly different. That presents a threat and also a massive opportunity. Stay light on your feet, keep adapting and offering value, and the world post COVID-19 might well be your oyster.



Chris Botha, Group Managing Director, Park Advertising

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