By Victor Oladokun April 3, 2020



Two days ago, I received an urgent plea from Massimo, a good friend and a highly respected Italian journalist based in Rome. His message was simple, urgent and straight to the point.



 “Please Victor, pay attention” he urged. “This virus is not ‘just a flu’ as some still insist it is. Keep your distance. Wash your hands regularly. Don’t touch your face, eyes and mouth. Avoid crowded places where you cannot maintain the required social distance … pay attention my friend!”



Italy has given the rest of the world a tragic glimpse of what a lockdown needs to look, especially for countries that blink and fail to take action fast. Italy’s experience is an urgent wake-up call about the importance of swift and decisive action.



Massimo knows first-hand what’s at stake. A few hours earlier, he had lost a professional colleague. His country, which has a social culture very similar to Africa’s, now has more than 13,000 deaths from COVID-19. It is the highest number of fatalities anywhere in the world. And the body count is still rising.



Africa has had some lead time to learn important lessons and proactively engage&nbsp; the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other multilateral institutions, to hell put containment and preventative measures in place.



While others have wasted precious early moments, some countries and cities have been exemplars of what it takes to counter the spread of COVID-19. Rwanda for example, was the first country to take swift containment actions by placing portable sinks with running water in public spaces in its capital city and backing it up with a public awareness campaign. The Governor of Lagos State, Nigeria’s commercial hub, was also quick to convert a local stadium into an isolation and recovery area. Last week, Nigeria’s President Muhamadu Buhari placed the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja, Lagos and two neighbouring States, under lockdown for two weeks. Ultimately, Nigeria with a population of 180 million, will have to lock down for an even longer period of time. 



Several other countries are following suit. But many others are woefully lagging behind. There is still an unwillingness to acknowledge that not taking decisive and painful short-term action, will have devastating long-term consequences. 



Exposing systemic weaknesses



In spite of Africa’s best efforts, more must be done. The outlook for the continent is grim unless swift proactive actions are taken. For now, the pandemic is exposing deep cracks and systemic weaknesses across the board including a general lack of emergency preparedness, weak governance, and political, economic, social, cultural and health threats.



Millions of Africans live on less than two dollars a day. The implication is simple. A lack of access to money, food, water and electricity, means extended lockdowns will not be easy to implement. High levels of poverty and other communicable diseases were already impacting health and wellbeing long before the arrival of the coronavirus. A shortage of well-equipped and well-funded healthcare facilities is just the tip of the iceberg. Everything from doctors, clinics, hospitals, beds, medical supplies and intensive care units are in chronic short supply.



However, the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and Liberia and collaborative action by African leaders and global partners, shows that where there is a will, there is always a way.



COVID-19 could not have arrived at a worse time for Africa. A crash in global commodity prices and a glut in the oil and gas markets has seen revenues drop precipitously. Further threats from nature, including the impact of devastating weather patterns such as Cyclone Idai and Henry and a recent plague of locusts, have to be managed alongside the pandemic.



Economically, the private sector and financial markets have taken a beating. The sudden reversal of fortunes is in stark contrast to a more positive projection in the African Development Bank’s 2020 African Economic Outlook when it was released in January 2020. The bandwidth of fiscal headroom is very thin. Commodity-sensitive economies are reeling under the effects of sudden price drops and the altered market reality of reduced global demand. Crude oil prices which now hover at $22 a barrel, have fallen more than 68% since January 2020. Non-oil commodity prices in natural gas and metals have also taken a nosedive.



Acting Fast and Thinking Authentically



Extended lockdowns carry inherent potential threats of their own and these must be managed. Along with underlying systemic weaknesses, the pandemic could unleash social unrest, the explosions of which will be as unprecedented as the virus itself.



We must therefore act fast and think authentically. Africa has its own particularities and to a certain extent, local contexts will require locally suited solutions, while drawing from global lessons. Recent videos of local communities forcefully resisting law enforcement and sanitation teams are already emerging. Such scenes are inevitable, for reasons of poverty, a lack of knowledge, and a chronic mistrust of authorities.



Concerns about informal settlements, some of the largest in the world, are a cause for worry, as is terrorism, economic and social exploitation and fragility.



Psychological impacts of a pandemic



Along with business and financial challenges, Africa’s leaders must prepare to address the social, physical and mental health fallouts from unavoidable lockdowns, social disruptions, the loss of basic human dignity, threats to civil life, and worse, the loss of life itself.



Several governments have grasped this and are stepping up, although time is not on their side. In many cases they have imposed limited two-week lockdowns in the first instance. The goal is not to alarm citizens. But this is unlikely to be sufficient as the virus apparently has its own agenda, pattern and timing! Realistically, beating COVID-19, is likely to require 6-10 weeks of total nationwide lockdowns, at a minimum.



 To not do so, is to sell an illusion. To not do so, is to delay the inevitable. To not do so, is to raise false hopes. To not do so, is to be complicit and irresponsible in the spread of this most virulent and devastating virus. Worse, it will be suicidal, not just for countries but for the continent.



Dealing with harsh realities



We must therefore deal with hard reality, scientific facts, current simulations and real global lessons. Cosmetic approaches will not work when surgical precision is required. We must marshal every resource in order to save lives … every life and especially those already living on the margins of society. The underlying ethos of Ubuntu which says – “I am, because you are,” must be unleashed with full force to save lives. We have to be brutally honest, in order to be kind to ourselves! The bottom line is that this is not a time for test runs.



Urgent action is needed now, not tomorrow. This includes –



<ol class="wp-block-list" type="1"><li>Making tough and seemingly unpopular leadership decisions that will ultimately save lives and society.</li><li>Using every communication platform possible to increase public awareness and promote containment and preventative measures.</li><li>Stepping up testing and reducing the wait time between tests and test results.</li><li>Mobilising the support of public influencers including traditional, religious, civil society, entertainment celebrities, women and youth leaders.</li><li>Introducing measures to secure food and medical supply channels, fixing basic food prices, and curbing hoarding and panic-buying.</li><li>Re-purposing public spaces including conference centres, stadiums and open spaces for use as isolation and recovery centres.</li><li>Leveraging every available advantage, by focusing on low hanging fruits. For example, regional economic communities could re-organise manufacturing and target the supply of critically needed medicines, equipment and medical supplies, as well as food packaging and processing.</li><li>Delaying debt obligations and buying time with global creditors through forbearance or payment postponements. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated one third of African countries were at risk of debt distress. Post-crisis, the numbers will be significantly higher.</li></ol>



Pandemics and other global crises do not respect boundaries, titles or positions, creed, faith, gender, culture or hierarchy.



Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate rightly tells us: “COVID-19 teaches us that we are all global citizens connected by a single virus that recognises none of our natural or man-made boundaries.” We are in this together, regardless of where we call home. “Umuntu ngumuntu ngabantu.” I am because you are.



Dr. Victor Oladokun is the former Director of Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank Group.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

AFRICA LOCKS DOWN: No Time For Lockdowns

Op-Ed: Africa locks down: No time for test runs

By Irmgard Erasmus – Senior Financial Economist



Acutely aware of Ethiopia’s vulnerability to the health and
economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
urged “collective leadership and coordinated responses” to overcome the
challenges posed by the unprecedented shock. 



The Ethiopian leader has taken a dominant position in the campaign
for comprehensive stimulus packages and debt relief for the African continent,
stressing that “we are not prepared to overcome the virus on our health systems
and the long-term impact on our economies”. 



Echoing this concern, a consortium of African ministers of finance
emphasised in a communique dated April 1 that “urgent need” exists “for fiscal
stimulus to contain the crisis”.



On April 1, G20 leaders indicated that they are preparing a
response package for Africa that will include debt relief and financial aid.
The response package will incorporate “recent demands from President Cyril
Ramaphosa of South Africa and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia”, according
to Politico. 



This also came after the United Nations Economic Commission for
Africa (UNECA) again requested the “urgent and immediate release” of a $100bn
support package to aid domestic response actions in the fight against the
health and economic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. 



While the ministers welcomed the IMF and World Bank’s call for
official bilateral creditors to “provide breathing space” to African countries,
the consortium believes that “such relief should be extended to countries
across the region and by other creditors during this exceptional period”. 



A comprehensive $100bn support package for Africa will be
formalised for discussion and presentation at the World Bank and IMF’s
stakeholders’ initiatives on April 15.



For the public sector, disbursements will be utilised for the
servicing of public sector debt and interest payments, including on sovereign
bonds, in order to create “immediate fiscal space and liquidity” for
governments to focus their attention on domestic fiscal stimulus needs amid the
crisis. 



The consortium proposes that the $44bn disbursement be pooled into
a global special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be used for external debt service
“for effective management purposes till economic recovery takes hold and
agreement can be reached with creditors”. The ministers stressed that this
measure would guard against default by countries. 



The ministers requested the IMF to raise Special Drawing Rights
(SDRs) availability over the next two to three years. The consortium believes
that it would service the debt relief SPV facility and provide crucial
liquidity support.



Ethiopia has already rescheduled debt servicing agreements with
“some major creditors”, which will alleviate hard currency liquidity demands.
By September 2019, public external debt stock stood at $26.8bn, or half of
total outstanding public debt. 



Public external debt comprised a 60:40 split between central
government and state-owned enterprises, according to official records. 



Public external debt servicing costs amounted to $548.4m during Q1
FY 2019/20 (the fiscal year commences on July 8), of which $457.2m was due to
SOE debt servicing. 



Ethiopia has been among the most vocal of African nations to
request debt waivers or debt relief – while African finance ministers called
for a $100bn stimulus package, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged G20 members to
provide $150bn under a proposed three-point action plan. The disbursal should
take the form of supplementary budgetary support, debt relief, and private
sector financing, according to the proposal. 



The prime minister furthermore urged G20 nations to support the
World Health Organisation (WHO) and Africa Centres for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) in strengthening public health delivery and emergency
preparedness.



Cognisant of the fragility of the private sector, especially as
small- and medium-sized enterprises account for over 70% of the private sector
in Africa, the consortium stressed that liquidity relief should be extended in
particular to service and tourism sectors. 



African finance ministers requested support from the G20, EU, and
all Development Finance institutions to support a proposal aimed at the
refinancing, rescheduling, and implementation of guarantee schemes and
liquidity facilities for the private sector. 



In particular, African airline companies require preservation and
protection “given their significant contribution to the GDP of Africa”.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to 80 destinations in light of the
pandemic. 



Demand for local flights, which are ongoing, dropped by at least
50% already. The airline estimates that it will lose at least $190m due to the
pandemic. 



The Ethiopian government has ordered the central bank to release
Etb15bn ($460m) to private banks as it ramped up its fight against the economic
spillover effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The liquidity injection will enable
the banking sector to extend debt relief and additional loan facilities to
customers. 



This came in addition to instructions to avail foreign currency to
importers, with priority given to importers of essential goods or the
manufacturing of essential goods. 



In March, the World Bank granted a $500m grant and loan facility
(split evenly) to Ethiopia in support of its reform programme. 



The prime minister voiced his gratitude to “the generosity of the
Ethiopian people” as local stakeholders contributed generously to the National
Resource Mobilisation Committee initiative.



NKC African Economics’ preliminary GDP forecast suggests that
Ethiopia will be hit particularly hard by coronavirus-related disruptions. 



Absent comprehensive external support, a sharp slump in private
sector demand and investment momentum threatens an unprecedented plunge in
economic growth this year to 1.1% – down from a pre-virus forecast of 7.1%. 



Crucially, the pandemic threatens to disrupt progress made under
the reform agenda towards policy overhaul, broad-based privatisation of state
assets, financial liberalisation, and the launch of a domestic bourse. 



An uncomfortable reliance on grant relief amid strained domestic
fiscal capacity threatens to bloom into full-blown crisis in the absence of
comprehensive external financial support.

Lion_of_Judah,_Addis_Ababa,_Ethiopia

Op-Ed: Ethiopia – Abiy leads African appeal for relief actions

Content supplied by <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/">Forex Brokers SA</a>



Financial Markets around the world and across Africa are currently highly volatile due to the effect of Coronavirus pandemic and oil price war. 



Currencies, Oil
&amp; Stocks have all been hard hit and many major companies on Wall Street,
European Indices &amp; Emerging Economies indices &amp; elsewhere including in
Africa including JSE have lost 30-60% of their value, currency pairs of major
countries &amp; emerging economies have all been affected making them highly
volatile &amp; unpredictable. 



Markets are being driven by human sentiment – fear more than ever. Fear emerging from uncertainty if the markets &amp; economies could recover soon enough has made investors sell off otherwise considered strong assets &amp; stocks.



In Africa, South Africa’s JSE 40 has lost R4.5 trillion Rand of its market cap – with most of the top 40 stocks losing almost 30% since the start of the year till mid-March 2020. 



Like many other countries, SA went on lockdown for 21 days starting on 27th March 2020, and SA economy outlook has been downgraded by Moody’s on 27 March &#8211; <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/2020/03/30/south-africas-rand-crashes-to-its-lowest-ever-after-moodys-pulls-the-plug/">sparking more fears of the selloff on South African Rand (ZAR)</a>, which is at its all-time low.



The Nigerian economy has also been badly affected by the crisis &#8211; with Naira trading at over N500 against USD on the futures market. Most stocks on Nigeria’s NSE All-share index have fallen by close to 30% from the year’s high.



Right now, it&#8217;s important as an investor to step back &amp; control your fears amid this crisis and don’t let fear cloud your investing judgment. And look at market fundamentals, long term outlook among other factors.



What you should do?



Look at underlying factors like &#8211; financials,
risks &amp; performance:



Don’t base your decision on short term financial reports, news or based on fear, feeling or hunch. 



Look at overall
outlook &amp; factors like – risks involved, long term returns etc.



As an equity
investor &#8211; Check the company’s past financials
&amp; performance and overall outlook of the industry for the next few years. 



Review
Historic Performance of Company &amp; Sector &#8211; See
if the company has been performing well over the past 5-10 years and offering
good dividends, EPS (Earnings per share).



See if the sector is core &amp; strong &#8211; For example &#8211; sectors like Financial Services, Food &amp; Agriculture and Telecom form a core part of any economy &amp; they are expected to stay strong in the long run. 



Ask Questions &#8211; Will the sector in which the company operates, perform well in the future? Has the sector performed well in the past? Does the sector have strong fundamentals? Is the company run properly with sound management?



If the company that
you are invested in has some edge like &#8211; strong brand or innovative product/technology
or strong backing that will make it stand out even when the sector is
underperforming or even going down. 



Like – Company might have diversified interests in different sectors, or they have strong credible backing like – Government-backed firms, or they are behind some promising or revolutionary technology – like AI or Pharma, etc. Anything that will make it stand strong in tough situations.



Considering current poor economic conditions &amp; outlook – it’s important to look at if the effect on stock price is temporary &#8211; does the company have strong financials &amp; track record that will help it come back after this slowdown. How soon that stock is expected to come back? Many strong global companies with a proven track record have shown to bounce back even stronger after slowdown or recession-like – Microsoft, Amazon &amp; Bank of America. &nbsp;



Look deeply into
financials &amp; performance and don’t hurry your decision.



As a
commodity investor &#8211; 



Commodity prices like that of Oil &amp; Gold are dependent on demand &amp; supply. Investors need to study the fundamentals of the underlying commodity and only then they should invest &amp; don’t invest purely to make quick returns or based on feelings or emotions.



Gold is often considered
to be safe-haven by most investors during market uncertainty. Gold prices have
shown uptrend since 2008. And it has retained most of its value even during ups
&amp; downs. But even then, it can be risky for many investors.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;



While Oil trading is mostly done by companies &amp; funds, some individual speculators also participate. Oil prices have a very volatile history suggesting it is a very risky investment. Investors need to be cautious &amp; calculate risks before investing in Oil and use risk hedging &amp; risk management.



Oil prices normally fall when there is excessive output and demand is low. Like now – when the travel sector is affected by travel bans &amp; automobile sector is cutting back on production amid a drop in demand due to coronavirus. Oil has seen a huge drop in demand and plus OPEC (oil-producing nations) are stuck in a price war, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html">making oil prices fall drastically</a> and making it highly volatile and unpredictable. Trading in oil has never been riskier. 



Many investors
around the world trade oil on major exchanges worldwide. In Africa too, Oil
futures &amp; options are traded on major exchanges like – JSE &amp; NSE. 



Demand for commodities like Oil will likely come back in the future with price correction &amp; increased demand when the situation improves, but no one can predict with certainty of when or if. Making it a very risky investment. 



Investors using
proper analysis of all underlying factors know this.



As a currency trader – Currency performance is directly linked to economic &amp; geopolitical indicators of the country. If you are trading a currency pair on futures &amp; options market at JSE or with any <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/">South Africa based regulated forex broker</a> &#8211; then check for the underlying overall economic outlook of the country with a long-term perspective. 



While most speculation/trading on currencies is done on an intraday basis. It is best practice to maintain your position based on long term outlook &amp; strong technical &amp; fundamentals of the economy. 



For example – During uncertain times, US Dollar becomes safe haven for most investors, so currencies of emerging economies like South Africa, Brazil, etc. would likely lose due to risk aversion. So, it is best to base your decision based on long term fundamentals.



Also, another factor to take into note is the overall economy &amp; exports of the countries. The currencies of commodity-based economies have been especially hard hit. Forex: Nigerian Naira has been devalued by CBN due to the 2020’s oil crisis. In the past as well the Naira was affected in 2017 due to the oil price drop. 



Moreover, use proper risk &amp; money management and don’t let emotions overtake your judgment.



Think long term &amp; stick to your
investment plan



Think about your long term plan while investing in any asset class. In short or intra-day, you will likely see a lot of up &amp; down movements. 



But if you look at
the bigger chart- then the asset may actually be in a trending market. So it is
really essential to get the bigger view &#8211; research through the fundamental
factors and base your investment decisions likewise.



Once you have made
the investment decision based on your research – then stick to it unless there
is something really bad that conflicts your original long-term analysis.



What you shouldn’t do? 



Try to pick the top or bottom&nbsp; 



Many investors who are looking to make a profit from this situation or any rising/falling market make this mistake. They obsess about entering or exiting the market at the right price – the highest or lowest price. 



It is almost impossible for anyone (even the seasoned investors) to predict every market move &#8211; even with the right analysis tools &amp; news. Now, almost every investor has access to the same information &amp; technical analysis &#8211; so it wouldn’t give any extra edge to an investor. 



Plus, even if one could perfectly predict one move, he would have to time the move twice to get in &amp; out of the market at the right price. Which is near impossible to get correct all the time.



Don’t try to catch
every move of the market &#8211; tops &amp; bottoms and rely on fundamentals &amp;
think long term.



Get Emotional &amp; lose control of the situation



It&#8217;s very important to control your emotions during market volatility, and not panic. It is easier to get carried away by the flood of bad news, and the erratic market movements. 



Market ups &amp; downs are a normal things in the short term. It&#8217;s important to stick with your long-term investment strategy &amp; not let emotions change it. 



Don’t panic if the market is going against you in the short term. Think about the bigger picture – based on your strategy, that made you enter the market position in the first place. 



Use too much margin or leverage



This Is the most
common mistake that new traders make when trading currencies or derivatives or
commodities. 



Many CFD brokers offer <a href="https://www.forexbrokers.co.za/forex-trading/">forex trading</a> with a very high margin, sometimes it is even as high as 2000:1 leverage at some brokers. Also, forex &amp; equity investors trading in the JSE derivatives market has the option to use <a href="https://www.jse.co.za/services/post-trade-services/risk-management/calculators">margin while trading</a> &#8211; which puts them at risk.



Using too much
leverage to increase your position size also increases your exposure &amp;
risk. And this can multiply your losses, often higher than your original
capital. 



So, it is really important to avoid margin trading at all times, or use the leverage of no more than 1:5 if you really must.



Obsess too much with your current market position 



Many new investors
have a habit of looking at their portfolio again &amp; again &#8211; especially when
the market is going against them. This often results in panic &amp; wrong
decisions. 



Long term investors
shouldn’t obsess too much over the current market situation as it does not help.
If you are investing in an asset with a long-term view – then it is best to not
look too often at your portfolio. 



Think about – why you decided to invest in that asset &amp; what changed overtime that the asset is no longer investable. Ex: If you invested in company A – that has strong fundamentals, good future projects, growth perspective &amp; solid growth over many years, then think would the current situation affect the company in the longer term. If not – then stick to your plan &amp; don’t let every short-term market movement affect your decision.

Stock market exchange graph price drop with red numbers investment lose of business financial digital background – Candle stick charts stock crash crisis fall risk decreasing arrow down trend sell

Op Ed: Why you shouldn’t make your investment decision based on panic during market volatility?

By Dr Victor Oladokun, outgoing Director of Communication &amp; External Relations at the African Development Bank Group



Why
Africa Urgently Needs an Ubuntu Plan



Africa urgently needs a globally
coordinated Ubuntu Plan in response to COVID-19, a fiscal stimulus that
recognises our shared and connected humanity, as we find ourselves in the midst
of an unprecedented crisis.



The
world&#8217;s largest cities are eerily silent. One virus has disrupted the whole
world in a manner never seen before in history.



COVID-19,
a term that did not exist in our vocabulary a couple of months ago, has brought
virtually everything to a grinding halt. It&#8217;s a surreal almost cinematic scene.
Except that we are all living through it.&nbsp;




With governments balancing economies and
the welfare of their citizens, entire industries and institutional systems find
themselves fighting for survival in the midst of mandatory lockdowns. Food
supply chains, transportation networks, educational systems, governance and
judicial systems are either strained or barely functioning with medical
services being the worst hit.



Unlike
any other pandemic, COVID-19 will alter the way we live, work, and
socialise.&nbsp; The financial costs and the
economic devastation are already of epic proportions. This is why Africa in
particular urgently needs an Ubuntu Plan. A globally coordinated fiscal
stimulus plan that recognises our shared and connected humanity. 



The
case for an Ubuntu Plan



This
past week, America passed a 2 trillion Dollar stimulus package that will keep
markets operational, support Americans out of work, and help reduce Federal
Reserve lending rates. It is the largest bailout in the history of the United
States. European economies likewise have announced stimulus measures in excess
of 1 trillion Euros. Chinese factories are ramping up again, backed by a $344
billion stimulus package.



In
contrast, Africa&#8217;s economies are already buckling. Global demand for oil and
gas and commodity products &#8211; the mainstays of Africa&#8217;s leading economies &#8211; has
stalled. Revenues which were already overextended have dried up and small,
medium, and large enterprises are at risk of total collapse.



Last
Thursday, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
estimated that the pandemic could reduce the growth of the region&#8217;s gross
domestic product (GDP) from 3.2% to 1.8% in 2020. On 27th March, The Secretary
General of the UN Antonio Guterres said: “Africa is a continent with very
little capacity to respond and I am extremely worried that in those situations,
we might have millions of cases with millions of people dying”.



Lockdowns
are not equal



Even
though the United States, Europe and many parts of Asia are better suited
economically and infrastructurally to a lockdown, they are struggling to cope
with the burden of this sudden pandemic. A situation that will likely will be
worsened by the duration and unpredictability of the pandemic.



If
these societies are struggling, the impact on Africa is best imagined.



Prior
to the crisis, 41% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population lived on less than $1.90
a day which is very little to survive on. Seven out of ten persons (70%) in
Africa are in vulnerable and precarious forms of informal employment eking
their living on a daily basis. Lockdown, homeworking and teleconferencing is
therefore not an option. Family support systems from blue and white-collar
workers and the diaspora, are themselves under threat. Job losses will&nbsp; strain these critical informal support
systems to breaking points.



 In Africa, formal social safety nets rarely exist. Therefore, stockpiling food items for extended periods of isolation is out of consideration. Linked with this, Africa requires vast food supplies to meet the needs of the continent&#8217;s poorest who can barely afford a decent mmeal. 



Recent
cyclones, Kenneth and Idai, and a&nbsp;
plague of locusts, have already put considerable pressure on&nbsp; immediate food supplies for the continent.



Which
is why an Ubuntu Plan is now critical in order to cushion the harsh
social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Such a plan
would include a fiscal stimulus package, the development of critical
infrastructure and support for the continent&#8217;s most vulnerable populations. 



The
fact is that in the 21st century, clean water supplies and access to
electricity are the stuff of dreams for millions of Africans. Globally, almost
800 million people are without access to clean water. Of these, 40% live in
sub-Saharan Africa.&nbsp; The simple act of
hand washing which the pandemic requires for prevention is still not possible
for millions. Linked with this, less than 58% of Africa&#8217;s population has access
to modern healthcare facilities. 



A
race against time



Africa
and its partners have already been striving hard to tackle the challenge of
eradicating poverty with measures such as the UN’s Sustainable Development
Goals, and the African Development Bank&#8217;s High5 strategy. 



The
COVID-19 pandemic however shines the spotlight on Africa’s&nbsp; poor healthcare delivery systems and
facilities and its vast challenges. Africa has one of the highest population
densities in the world. For people living in tens of thousands of informal
settlements, the idea of social distancing is inconceivable. Millions of
vulnerable low-income people live in cramped communal houses and rooms and
in&nbsp; areas that lack basic amenities,
especially water and sanitation. 



In
the short term, to effectively combat COVID-19, we urgently need self-testing
kits, personal protective equipment (PPEs), makeshift living spaces and
hospitals, recovery units and inexpensive easy-to-operate ventilators. 



The
World Health Organisation (WHO) has already issued a ten-point strategy that
calls for the creation of corridors on the continent to facilitate emergency
deployments and material shipments.&nbsp; The
plan also calls on governments and the private sector to help increase
supplies, medical equipment and care, and to strengthen surveillance and public
awareness, in order to prevent&nbsp;
continent-wide community transmission.



In
the short window available, global cooperation is imperative.



&nbsp;The African Union&#8217;s Vision Agenda 2063 and
action plan states among other things, that “We are part of the global drive
through the United Nations and other multilateral organisations to find
multi-lateral approaches to humanity’s most pressing concerns including human
security and peace, the eradication of poverty, hunger and disease &#8230;”&nbsp; 



Rethinking
the future



In
the mid to long term, we must urgently rethink social life, urban and rural
planning and our budgetary priorities, if life is to be preserved. We must&nbsp; decongest informal settlements rapidly and in
their place&nbsp; develop&nbsp; affordable housing that is suitable for
isolation&nbsp; and quarantine, in the event
of future pandemics.



There
is no better time for a globally coordinated Ubuntu Plan. To stop the
global spread of COVID-19 and its global devastation, it must be stopped in
Africa. The world must pay attention and lend a helping hand by strengthening
global cooperation, now more than ever before.&nbsp;




Ubuntu
&#8211; The preservation of human dignity, health, lives and wellbeing, demands
nothing less.

Victor

Op-Ed: Victor Oladokun on why Africa urgently needs an Ubuntu Plan

NKC African Economics expects the coronavirus-related knock to economic
growth in Africa’s three largest economies alone to shave off 1 ppt from the
continent’s GDP growth this year, from 3.8% to 2.8%. 



Preliminary estimates point towards the weakest continental growth
since the early 1990s.



The continent’s three largest economies, South Africa, Nigeria and
Egypt – together accounting for just under 60% of African GDP – will see a
significant weakening in economic growth this year. 



This slowdown in economic activity will permeate through the
continent as these countries are salient drivers behind economic growth in
their respective regions.&nbsp; 



In addition to the indirect effects stemming from weakness in the
largest economies, other African nations will also have to deal with a much
more volatile external economic environment. 



The collapse in tourism will weigh on economic growth in many
countries (particularly the island nations, Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia), while
a reduction in both export demand and commodity prices will weaken fundamentals
in Africa’s more export-oriented economies (most notably the oil producing
nations).&nbsp; 



The escalation in the Covid-19 outbreak in Africa implies there is
a lot more at stake than foregone economic production. 



Most African countries will not be able to effectively implement
the severe restrictions on movement that we have seen globally. The
impracticality of implementing widespread self-quarantine in shantytowns or
informal settlements means that this will not be an option. Mismanagement of
the situation could lead to human costs far exceeding economic losses.



Tourism is a key forex generator and employment creator across the
continent. Severe travel restrictions, border closures and lockdowns in key
source markets will result in a collapse in tourism during the first half of
the year, at least. 



Domestic and intra-Africa tourism have been key drivers behind
growth in overall tourism in recent years, but as more Covid-19 cases are
confirmed on the continent we will see an increase in domestic travel
restrictions and regional border closures. 



The island nations will be hardest hit, but the mainland will feel
the effects in the North (particularly in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt), South
(Namibia, Botswana), East (Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya) and West (Côte d’Ivoire,
The Gambia, Cameroon). 



Low barriers to entry have led to tourism becoming a key source of
employment. The island nations in particular are dependent on tourism to
generate employment, most notably the Seychelles (where tourism accounts for
around 44% of formal employment), Cape Verde (39%) and Mauritius (19%). 



Tourism has also become a salient job creator on the African
mainland, and a slump in the sector could result in rapid job losses given the prevalence
of micro- and small-sized enterprises operating in the sector.&nbsp; 



The slowdown in global economic activity will translate into a
reduction in demand, while lower commodity prices will compound this negative
effect on exports. 



Africa’s energy exporters will struggle to come to terms with a
much more hostile external environment. Countries such as Nigeria, Angola and
Gabon are highly dependent on oil exports not only to generate forex but also
to fund government spending. 



Countries including Namibia, Zambia, Botswana and Mozambique are
dependent on mineral exports for the same reasons. 



Generally speaking, countries that have a GDP structure orientated
towards exports will feel the pain of a weaker external environment.



Lower international energy prices will have a detrimental impact
on the continent’s oil exporters, but many other countries stand to benefit. 



A reduction in the oil imports bill will have a favourable impact
on external balances while also containing consumer price inflation. Lower
inflation will support consumer spending at a time when a weak external
environment increases the importance of domestic consumption in driving overall
economic growth.&nbsp; 



The South African economy had already entered 2020 on a very
fragile footing before the dramatic external developments related to the
Covid-19 pandemic. NKC forecasts a 5% real GDP contraction this year. Domestic
policy uncertainty and supply-side constraints have now been accompanied by a
deterioration in global business sentiment and a drop in demand for South
African goods, all weighing on the country’s economic recovery prospects. 



In addition, the three-week long nationwide lockdown, which
commenced on March 27, will result in a collapse in consumer spending. The
outlook could deteriorate further if the lockdown is extended.&nbsp; 



The coronavirus has not as yet, as far as we know, taken
significant hold in Nigeria. However, the weaker external environment and more
specifically, the recent collapse in international oil prices, will have a
marked impact on the economy’s performance this year.



Lower oil prices will result in tighter FX liquidity, rising
inflation, falling investment, lower fiscal expenditure and easing consumption
growth. 



As a result, NKC has revised its growth projection sharply lower
to 1.2% this year, with risks still firmly stacked to the downside. 



A more severe domestic outbreak of Covid-19 would cause
significant disruption to daily economic activity, particularly when
considering the population density in the country’s biggest cities. 



Despite the Egyptian government’s efforts, the number of confirmed
Covid-19 cases continues to rise considerably. 



The president has urged all citizens to stay at home for a two-week
period and a night-time curfew has been declared, while the possibility of a
formal lockdown in some regions is also circulating in local media. 



The fiscal deficit is set to widen significantly over fiscal year
(FY) 2019/20 and FY 2020/21 following the announcement of a stimulus and
bail-out package to the value of approximately E£100bn. 



Government revenues already came in far below budget during the
first half of FY 2019/20 and will take a massive knock during the second half
of the fiscal year, which ends in June. 



Lower economic growth reflects weaker consumption, investment, and
exports. 



The recently announced fiscal stimulus measures, however, should
prevent a collapse in domestic demand. 



The economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic will be
considerable, but the human costs will be higher yet. 



As of end March South Africa remains the hardest-hit African
country from a confirmed-case perspective and the expected economic hardship
reflects this. 



However, South Africa is also arguably the best-placed country on
the continent to deal with the pandemic. While it does have a large
immuno-compromised population due to its struggles with HIV, the country might
be able to leverage its sophisticated private healthcare sector to supplement
inadequate public services. 



Most other African nations will not have this benefit. 



Confirmed Covid-19 cases will undoubtedly increase across the
continent in coming weeks, and timely and effective government responses will
be required to ensure that this does not become another African tragedy.



Jacques Nel – Head of Africa Macro



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

Op-Ed: African giants to stumble due to Covid-19 pandemic

By: Alexander Knieps



Are you struggling with the impact of Covid -9? Are you scared of going out of business? Is the uncertainty killing you?



Don&#8217;t worry, you are not alone &#8211; we have the same thoughts, but we will try to help (see our amazing offer below that will help). In German, there is a saying, &#8220;Geteiltes Leid, ist halbes Leid.&#8221; Translated it means something like this &#8211; a trouble shared, is a trouble halved. I am personally living by the motto &#8220;What I can&#8217;t control, I am not stressing about.&#8221;So what can we control?  



We as Printulu are shutting down production, as requested by the President, from the 26th of March until the 16th of April. 



It hurts all of us, but it is required in order to protect the weakest of society, ironically while affecting the poorest of society the most. Given this unprecedented situation, maybe comparable to the 1929 market crash, we urge all of our clients to make the most out of this lockdown.



We believe difficult times bear the biggest opportunities:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>1890: General Electric was founded during a recession.</li><li>1975: Microsoft was founded during stagflation in the US.</li><li>2009: Dropbox was founded during the last financial crisis.</li></ul>



What does this mean for us? The lockdown is the opportunity to work on what we can influence!



We are evaluating all angles to costs, ensure liquidity while investing in our team and our brand. You should do this, too. Not later, not in 3 weeks. Right now. We do not know how long the situation is actually going to last. 



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote> a trouble shared, is a trouble halved <cite> Alexander Knieps </cite></blockquote></figure>



Therefore, we are taking the following measures in order to protect our staff and to avoid any layoffs during these times:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cut fixed costs</h2>



Rent:&nbsp;Our lease contract ended in December. From then on we were automatically on a month-to-month contract. As we do not know how long the pandemic will last, we will cancel our lease. Everyone is working from home in any case. We have spoken to other tenants in the building &#8211; they are facing similar difficulties. As our landlord really wants to keep us, they are now trying to stop their bond payment to the bank and come to the party. We will see how this plays out, but we need to work on our fixed costs. Have a chat with your landlord &#8211; they know what you are going through.



IT costs:&nbsp;We have been working on our platform for 3 years, releasing updated features every week. Sometimes on the frontend, but mostly on the back-end to automate processes or better track orders in production. Right now we have stripped our projects down to the bare minimum. IT is expensive and mostly pays off in the long run. Right now, it is a time to balance the long-term and short-term.&nbsp; &nbsp;



Other costs:&nbsp;I spent the last 24 hours going through our bank statements, line by line, to evaluate which costs can be cut. You will be surprised what you will find. I have cut down on subscriptions to help automate marketing projects because right now we have the hours to do work manually. In addition, we canceled a subscription for streamlining our hiring process &#8211; it is very clear, we cannot hire right now. Times are tough&#8230;



Salaries/team:&nbsp;We recommend to let everyone work from home (if possible). If someone is not able to work from home we encourage them to help everyone in this situation as much as possible. Consider short-time and only if the lockdown continues for too long and it is inevitable, start retrenching people. If you have to retrench, try to base it off of performance and not by the length of employment. This is important for the culture of your company.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ensure short-term liquidity</h2>



Grants:&nbsp;Up until now, it is not clear to me what exactly the South African government is offering to help to mitigate the effect on small businesses. However, we really recommend that you apply via&nbsp;<a href="http://www.smmesa.gov.za/">http://www.smmesa.gov.za/</a>



Loans:&nbsp;If you have a loan, speak to your bank to get a repayment holiday. Most of them have already implemented it. In addition, speak to the bank for more liquidity. It is not going to be easy, but necessary. Maybe not for the next 3 weeks, but what if it takes longer?



Investors:&nbsp;Speak to potential investors or friends (also called &#8220;Friends, Family and Fools&#8221;) to provide you with a loan or an equity investment in order to bridge a short-term liquidity gap. Prefer raising debt rather than equity. If you cannot come to an agreement, use a so-called safe note agreement. We have made use of this in the past and are also speaking to our investors to provide a financing bridge in case this situation goes on for 3 or even 6 months.



Suppliers:&nbsp;Speak to your suppliers and revisit payment terms. Unfortunately, your suppliers will have many clients asking for an extension. In order to not harm the relationship and be able to act quickly after the lockdown, we really recommend working collaboratively with your suppliers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest in your team</h2>



Training:&nbsp;If you have a team, now is the time to upskill them and make your team more robust to any external shocks. Is there anything you always wanted to delegate, but never found the time? If you do not have a team, make sure you upskill yourself. Read a book about cost cutting, marketing, leadership. Use the lockdown time and don&#8217;t waste it on Netflix. Rather invest in courses from websites such as&nbsp;Udemy&nbsp;or&nbsp;GO1&nbsp;to provide courses for your team (or yourself)! &nbsp;



Analysis / clean-ups:&nbsp;Do you need to follow up on some payments? Is your accounting not 100% up to date? Is there an analysis you always wanted to do, but did not get the time? Now is the time. Get it done and make every minute count.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest in your brand</h2>



Contact clients:&nbsp;Make sure you contact your key clients and help them survive this unprecedented situation. Help now and have a loyal client forever. With this email I am trying to make a small contribution in trying to help businesses.



Marketing initiatives:&nbsp;Prepare all your marketing initiatives for the year. Get the designs ready, get the ad-copy right and get the ball rolling so that you are moving strongly when the lockdown is over. Marketing is a variable cost &#8211; not a fixed cost adding to your underlying risk. Secure liquidity and invest the rest in your brand and product.



<a href="https://www.printulu.co.za/">Printulu </a>is an online printing firm in South Africa. Alexander Knieps is their CEO.

Stacks of printed paper at printing press

How one SME is handling the lockdown in South Africa

– By Neels Barendrecht, Chairman of Agility Holdings
and Director of Agility Risk Solutions, Singapore



In February I returned from a
Singapore business trip. COVID-19 had not yet been declared a pandemic at this
time, however in light of the global events unfolding I took the decision to
self-isolate for the safety of my colleagues, friends, community and to help
protect our country, which at that time had no confirmed cases. 



While some may have thought I
was being overly cautious, as subsequent events in South Africa and the recent
announcement of a national disaster have shown – this was certainly the right
and responsible thing to do. 



As a business leader, I feel
it is my duty to set an example to the rest of the business by diligently
following this process, showing respect for our fellow colleagues and citizens.
The basics of risk management dictate that we have to be mindful of the
potential consequences that wider exposure to this virus could have, and take
proactive measures to prevent this as far as possible. 



One of the most difficult
aspects of my decision to self-isolate at home was that my family who live with
me also needed to enter into these self-quarantine measures. Fortunately, my
family have been most supportive and understand why these measures are
necessary for the greater good. We are also enjoying spending some quality time
together for a change. 



Our Medical Director of
Agility Health, Dr Jacques Snyman,
points out that in my circumstances – which will no doubt be applicable to
others – self-isolation in its true sense is often not practical unless one
lives alone. My family’s possible exposure to any risk of COVID-19 that I could
have after travelling means that our self-imposed family quarantine would aim to keep
any possible risk associated with the virus “in the family”, and not expose
anyone else to possible infection. 



I have been asked whether
life in isolation is a lonely experience, and to what extent it has impacted my
ability to work. Surrounded by my nearest and dearest, who are isolated with
me, I am fortunate not to feel “cut off” and thanks to technology, I am mostly
as effective in my professional capacity as ever ­– if not more so in some
respects because I’m spending less time travelling and commuting, and more time
‘online’.



This said, we have had to
cancel a number of family events because we are not to leave the house under
any circumstances. We are learning to think differently about things we have
taken for granted, and I find myself performing risk analysis in my daily life
for simple things that we would have hardly spared a second thought for before
the advent of this novel coronavirus. 



I now find myself considering
whether the benefit balances the risk of ordering fast food for delivery, which
by this point in our local outbreak could potentially carry traces of the
highly contagious virus. I suspect I will be avoiding buffet tables for some
time to come. 



There is a silver lining to
be found amid the alarm surrounding the coronavirus, and this is that we are
all taking on more responsible behaviours that we should have embraced long
before the threat of COVID-19. 



Just as the threat of Day
Zero in the Western Cape made us far more careful about conserving water and
respecting this limited resource, the COVID-19 pandemic is giving us a
much-needed wake up call when it comes to the importance of hygiene and putting
in place contingency measures.



Proper hygiene will not only
help us in the current situation, it will help to reduce other infectious
illnesses that are all too widespread and also pose significant health risks –
particularly to immunocompromised individuals in our country. 



The behaviours that we will
need to fully embrace to contain the threat of COVID-19, and the agility we as
a society will need to develop in response to the unfolding situation, are
responsible behaviours that will hopefully stay with us far beyond this crisis.




These are things we should have been doing all along, and if COVID-19 provides the stimulus we need to start practising better hygiene, let us do our best to take these lessons to heart.

Op-Ed: Living and working in self-isolation – Seeking the ‘Silver lining’ of the COVID-19 precautions

Following the address made by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa regarding COVID-19 and its impact on the nation, employees and employers are being asked to “self-quarantine” and implement “social distancing”. 



“The COVID-19 pandemic is a societal issue and not just an employer issue. We all share the responsibility and as such, one of the most responsible things employers can do is limit human interaction. Working remotely, especially from home, can be a difficult task for some in at first – especially if one is used to working within a structured office environment,” says ManpowerGroup South Africa’s managing director, Lyndy van den Barselaar. 



ManpowerGroup South Africa offers some specific advice on how to make a success of working remotely:



Create a Work Schedule



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Set a work schedule, create a routine and stick to it. “Yes, we are in a crisis and it’s totally natural to feel panicked and out-of-sorts over all that is going on. Nonetheless it’s key to stick to deliverables and goals,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Take lunch and coffee breaks to recharge your batteries between tasks. “Sometimes, one can fall into the trap of feeling like you have to over deliver because you are not in the office. Remember to take short breaks in between tasks to avoid burnout and ensure you are able to function optimally,” adds van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Make use of the online tools available such as Microsoft Teams, Zoom and Skype to schedule video meetings.</li></ul>



Have a Set Office Space



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Designate a specific space in your home for your office. “It is important to make the distinction between your living and working space, in order to avoid the trap of an ‘always-on’ lifestyle. Keep your personal relaxing spaces, like your bedroom and living room, separate from your workspace,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Choose a space where you will have minimal interruptions. Don’t underestimate the distractions from children, pets, TV and household chores.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Store all work-related files, reference materials and supplies in that space. Better yet, go paperless, by scanning hard copies of documents using tools such as Dropbox, Evernote, Google Drive or Microsoft One Drive.</li></ul>



Get Organised



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Every Monday morning, create a list of all the activities you have to accomplish for the upcoming week.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>At the end of each workday, create a to-do list of all the tasks you have to complete the next day, starting with the most to the least important.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Create a filing system to help you be your most productive self.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Organise your office space in a manner that facilitates your best work.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Have the items you use most frequently within reach.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Schedule regular check-in meetings with your manager and team to ensure you are staying on top of your actions.</li></ul>



Have the Right Equipment



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Invest in equipment that will enable you to do your job effectively and efficiently. “If you have video meetings with your manager each week, for example, make sure that your computer has the right camera, speed and memory for this,” says van den Barselaar.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Since you will be doing most of your work on the computer, and transferring work via the Internet, make sure that you have reliable Internet and a safe connection. “Make use of a VPN if possible, to ensure the safety of your documents and information,” van den Barselaar suggests.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Have a reliable back-up system. </li></ul>



Maintain a Healthy Lifestyle



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Even though you are encouraged not to attend the gym, take time to exercise regularly, be it at home or going for a walk outside. “This can seem like a task that is separate from your work life, but keeping yourself active and healthy can assist in managing stress and creating a positive work life balance,” says van den Barselaar</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Practice regular handwashing with soap and water and in the instance that you should need to leave your home, always have sanitiser within reach.</li></ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Implement social distancing but nothing should stop you from arranging a video call with friends or family after work to keep the loneliness at bay. </li></ul>



“We are entering uncharted territory, however being productive and delivering results should continue to be a priority,” concludes van den Barselaar.

Op-Ed: Tips to Successfully Work from Home amid the COVID-19 pandemic

By François Conradie &#8211; Senior Political Economist



President Peter Mutharika is using his office to thwart the
decision by the Constitutional Court to annul the results of the May 2019
election in which he was re-elected, and to direct government to hold a fresh
election. 



After Parliament approved some changes to electoral legislation in
line with the Court’s directive that presidential elections should henceforth
be won by absolute majority rather than relative majority, Mr Mutharika used
his veto power on Tuesday, March 17, and refused to ratify Parliament’s
changes. 



A spokesperson for the presidency said that, in the president’s
opinion, the proposed changes are unconstitutional. 



Mr Mutharika’s appeal against the original Constitutional Court
ruling is still pending; the ruling in the appeal case is expected in April.



This is the most dramatic move to block the implementation of the
Constitutional Court ruling, and it comes in conjunction with a few other moves
by the head of state that are of a nature to cause concern. 



Also on Tuesday, Mr Mutharika fired the chief commander of the
Malawi Defence Force, General Vincent Nundwe, and replaced him with former air
force commander Major General Andrew Lapken Namathanga. 



General Nundwe had been appointed in June and was widely popular
for his men’s handling of protests over last year’s election: on several
occasions, soldiers came between protesters and police officers whose
repression of marches was turning violent, so the army was praised for being on
the side of the people. 



General Nundwe will be “assigned to other duties in the public
service”, in the words of the statement from the presidency. 



The deputy commander of the defence force was also replaced and a
number of senior officers received promotions. 



An unnamed senior officer who spoke to AFP said that Mr
Mutharika’s intention with the move is to “put people who work for his interests
and from his home area” in positions to advance his personal and political
interests. 



Mr Mutharika has already given the army the order to use force
against protesters participating in a planned march to State House on
Wednesday, March 25.



On Friday, March 13, Mr Mutharika dissolved his Cabinet. 



The move came a few weeks after his Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) formed an alliance with the United Democratic Front (UDF), in order to
bolster the challenge from the two most important opposition parties, the
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the United Transformation Movement (UTM). 



He has made explicit his intention to make the Cabinet bigger:
since 2014, the year of his first election, he has stuck to a promise he made
in the campaign ahead of that poll to limit the size of Cabinet to 20
ministers. 



Sympathetic commentators say that the relatively more robust
health of the economy means he can now name a team of up to 30. His intention
is probably to give more portfolios to the UDF to bolster his alliance. 



On Tuesday, his spokesperson said he had decided on a new team and
would announce it “soon”. In the interim, all ministerial powers vest in the
president.



A rough few weeks lie ahead. It seems as though Mr Mutharika’s
plan is to delay the new election for as long as possible, but he does seem to
have accepted that it will go ahead, hence his focus on the new Cabinet and the
alliance with the UDF. 



As the new campaign starts, we will expect protests and for the
overhauled army to be as forceful as the police in dealing with them. The
voting itself will not be less suspect than that of last May, and if he wins,
his legitimacy will be in question. 



We had been hopeful about the outcome of the Constitutional Court ruling, but the president’s intransigence is reason to fear an increase in risk.

Op-Ed: Malawi – Intransigent Mutharika raises the temperature

By Louw Nel – Political Analyst



On March 11, as many as 70 MPs gathered at the Serena Hotel in
Nairobi to call on Deputy President William Ruto to resign. 



A joint statement was signed by members of both the National
Assembly and Senate, representing a number of parties: the governing Jubilee
Party and the main opposition, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), along with
alliance partners Wiper, Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford), Amani
National Congress (ANC), and Kenya African Democratic Union (Kadu). 



Their call for Mr Ruto to resign followed the announcement by
Senate Minority Leader James Orengo that he would be initiating impeachment
proceedings against Mr Ruto “in two weeks”.



According to the statement, Mr Ruto is accused of having “declared
war against established state institutions” and is said to be “guilty of public
misconduct and grave malpractices and has not lived up to the oath of office”. 



Listed in the statement are seven “concerns and controversies”,
including his alleged “history of fraud, acquisition of unexplained wealth and
unjust enrichment [and] arms deals and association with the underworld”.
Central to Mr Orengo’s impeachment drive is a scandal involving a fraudulent
deal to purchase KSh40bn in military equipment and the suspicious death of a
police officer linked to the matter. 



The investigation into a KSh11.5m ‘consultancy fee’ paid by arms
dealers has already resulted in the arrest of the former sports minister,
Rashid Echesa, and is increasingly being linked to Mr Ruto’s office. 



Among those calling for Mr Ruto’s resignation were members of
Jubilee’s so-called Kieleweke faction, aligned to President Uhuru Kenyatta. 



A growing rift between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto continues to be
fuelled by speculation over the incumbent reneging on his commitment to endorse
his ambitious deputy as Jubilee’s presidential candidate ahead of the 2022
elections. 



Mr Kenyatta’s rapprochement with ODM leader and former adversary
Raila Odinga has further antagonised Mr Ruto. 



Current battle lines are drawn over the Building Bridges
Initiative (BBI), which is championed by Messrs Kenyatta and Odinga and is
seemingly gaining momentum. 



Mr Ruto is openly hostile to the initiative. In particular, he is
suspicious about one of its key recommendations – the proposed appointment of a
prime minister – which Mr Odinga and others would like to put to a referendum
in 2020. 



Cleavages within Jubilee are becoming more pronounced with Mr
Ruto’s Tangatanga faction vowing a fightback.



The impeachment bid, should it be launched, will face significant
challenges. At least one third of all MPs (115) need to endorse the motion
before it can be tabled in the National Assembly, with a two-thirds majority
(234) required to carry the motion to the Senate. Organisers of yesterday’s
event say their statement was supported by 165 MPs. 



Moves to undermine Mr Ruto’s 2022 succession bid are gaining
momentum and he must now know that he faces an enormous challenge, both within
his party and Kenya more generally. 



Although it is too early to say if an impeachment drive against
him will be successful, a successful launching of proceedings will be a major
blow. 



Kenyan politics is never short of intrigue, but there is no doubt
that recent developments are significant and that Mr Ruto’s political career is
under siege.





ty65 \lsdl

Op-Ed: Kenya – Bid launched to remove Ruto

By Dr Wanjiru Kamau-Rutenberg, Director, African Women in Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD).



The yawning global gender gap is at the heart of our inability to end hunger. Whether last in the family to eat, blocked from owning land, or entirely ignored by extension workers and policymakers, gender inequality &#8211; and specifically discrimination against women &#8211; is a key driver of global hunger.



The cost of
ending global hunger&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globalgiving.org/learn/how-much-would-it-cost-to-end-world-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">has been estimated</a>&nbsp;at anything from $7 billion to $265
billion per year, largely because experts cannot agree on the primary causes or
solutions.&nbsp;



As
academics, activists and policymakers continue to explore the role that climate
change, disease outbreaks, and unstable markets have in exacerbating global
hunger, still too few are connecting the dots between gender inequality and
hunger.



Hunger
itself knows no gender, affecting&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">820
million men, women and children</a>&nbsp;alike worldwide. But circumstances
leading to hunger and malnutrition often arise because gender inequality tends
to disadvantage women as producers and carers and, importantly, as
professionals in fields such as science, technology and innovation.



We cannot
continue neglecting the vital contribution of women in agriculture if we are to
have any hope of improving global food security. This means addressing the
under-appreciated and vital role of women – not just in producing and preparing
food for their families, but also in conducting and leading scientific research
needed to enhance the production and equitable distribution of food to all.



Women
account for&nbsp;<a href="https://farmingfirst.org/women_infographic/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 40 per cent</a>&nbsp;of the agricultural workforce in
developing countries, often working longer hours and taking on more
labour-intensive tasks, such as weeding and tending to livestock. For example,
weeding a&nbsp;<a href="https://croplife.org/news/an-end-to-weeding-by-hand/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">single hectare of sorghum</a>&nbsp;by hand can take around 324
hours of labour.



Yet while
women bear the burden of drudgery on farms, they do so without access to many
of the same resources as men, facing a yield gap of up to&nbsp;<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/one.org/pdfs/poverty_is_sexist_report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">30 per cent</a>&nbsp;as a result.



By
providing women with the inputs and services that meet their needs, total
agricultural output in developing countries could rise by up to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i2050e/i2050e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">four per cent</a>.



To
effectively tackle global hunger, all scientists must have the skills and
commitment to address the needs and priorities of women farmers across
agricultural value chains.



Named after
its inventor, Ethiopia’s&nbsp;<a href="https://ruforum.wordpress.com/2015/10/07/professor-fetien-abay-a-pioneering-plant-and-seed-scientist/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fetina</a>&nbsp;variety of barley is an example of what happens
when scientists collaborate with, and respond to the needs of women farmers.



Developed
by Prof. Fetien Abera in consultation with farmers across the Ethiopian
highlands, Fetina barley is easier to de-husk which reduces demands on women’s
labour, allowing them to increase their output and freeing up their time and
energy.



Prof.
Abera’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgQRDlglfG0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">own life story</a>&nbsp;is itself an example of why we must
also address the systemic and systematic inequalities that stop women in
agricultural research from bringing their best innovations to the fore. Since
becoming the first woman plant breeder and lecturer at Mekelle University, she
has overcome tremendous challenges in her rise to the rank of Deputy Vice
Chancellor.



Gender
biases in scientific research mean that not only are the needs of women
producers ignored, women scientists are&nbsp;<a href="https://awardfellowships.org/award-publications/a-decade-of-advancing-inclusive-agricultural-research-the-award-story/5c0a43297ad18doc509149097/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">less likely</a>&nbsp;than men to publish their work in
journals, and when they do publish papers, they are less likely to be the lead
investigator.



The result
is that women’s achievements in science, research and development often slip
through the equality gap. The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)
reports that only&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wipo.int/women-and-ip/en/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">30.5 per cent</a>&nbsp;of patent applications have one woman
inventor.



Across
sub-Saharan Africa, just&nbsp;<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/afgend/262293.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">one in
four</a>&nbsp;agricultural researchers are women, meaning that women are
underrepresented in the leadership roles where priorities are set, decisions
made and resources allocated for research on the continent.



A recent
study found it may take up to&nbsp;<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-says-the-gender-gap-in-science-could-take-generations-to-fix-95150" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">320 years</a>&nbsp;before an equal number of men and women are
working in senior science roles worldwide. We cannot afford to wait this long.



Since 2008,
African Women in Agricultural Research and Development (AWARD) has invested in
accelerating the careers of the continent’s female scientists such as Prof.
Abera.&nbsp;



In addition
to leadership training, we also unlock the wisdom of an older generation of
scientists through an intensive mentoring program, and support African women
scientists rise to the top of their scientific careers by helping them build
the skills needed to raise resources for their cutting edge research.



Our latest
work, the&nbsp;<a href="https://oneplanetfellowship.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">One
Planet Fellowship</a>,&nbsp;is an innovative
partnership between private philanthropy, the public and private sectors,
supporting the next generation of African and European scientists to embed
gender issues into their research on climate adaptation solutions for African
smallholder farmers.



The theme
of this year’s International Women’s Day is “Realising Women’s Rights”, but the
reality is that women’s rights are human rights.



We are
investing in building a more gender-responsive agricultural research system for
Africa because we cannot tackle hunger without first addressing gender
inequality.

gettyimages-130874533-170667a

Op-Ed: Ending global hunger requires tackling gender inequality

By: Dr Victor Oladokun



For weeks, investors and the business community have been rattled by massive disruptions to global supply chains, as factories shut down in China. Everyone from BMW and Mercedes to Apple are feeling the squeeze on account of the coronavirus.



But economies and businesses are not the
only ones dealing with disruption. 



Social conventions are adjusting in
unprecedented ways.



Yesterday, Italy shut down ALL schools and
contemplated banning kissing in an attempt to thwart the spread of the
#coronavirus pandemic.&nbsp; The kissing ban
may not be necessary. Italians are already voting with their feet and keeping
their cheeks at a very safe distance from friends, family members and others.



But Italy is not alone.



In France, where &#8220;La bise&#8221; is an age-old ritual, kissing friends has always been a rather complicated affair, especially for uninitiated foreigners. Rather than shaking hands, waving hello or hugging, you simply lean forward, touch cheeks and kiss the air while making a sound with your lips. 



Friends in France tell me that &#8216;La bise’
could soon go the way of the dodo if the virus known as #COVID19 remains
unrelenting.



&nbsp;Here
in #Abidjan in Côte d&#8217;Ivoire, as in many other parts of the world, social
conventions are rapidly changing. Unlike the French double blise, Ivorienes,
conduct a rapid triple kiss. But they too have become extremely economical with
their cheek and air kisses. 



At the African Development Bank, where we have rapidly put a coronavirus contingency plan in place, kisses and handshakes are quickly giving way to fist and elbow bumps, or to no contact at all. Many understandably prefer an adoring &#8220;keep your hands to yourself&#8221; stance.



Across town, it is not uncommon to see men and women now tap their feet rather than touch cheeks or shake hands. What first started out a few weeks ago as a  comedic viral video in Asia, has since mushroomed into a full-blown practice in some communities. 



I&#8217;ve already been offered the foot of
friendship’ several times, so I can testify.



Last night, I was having dinner with a colleague at India By Nature, a lovely restaurant off of Boulevard de Marseille in the Marcory district that is a favourite hangout for many in the expatriate community.



Three things struck me. 



One, very visible neon yellow alcoholic
hand sanitizers were on full display all around the restaurant. You couldn&#8217;t
miss them.



Second, everyone &#8230; waiters, chefs, and
owners kept their hands and cheeks to themselves. 



And third, it would seem that the
hand-clasped Hindi &#8216;Namaste&#8217; greeting could soon become a globally preferred
and much safer social norm, in a world battling with a pandemic that has
already spooked the media and business world &#8230; for good reason.



Social conventions have always been arcane arbitrary rules and norms that govern behaviours from kissing, hugging, shaking hands, to bowing. In the age of increasing pandemics, it would seem that old conventions are quickly giving way to the new and the not so new.



For now, stay safe and Namaste !



&#8211; Dr Victor Oladokun, is the Director of
Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank

The End of Social Conventions?

By Pieter Scribante, Economist and Political Analyst, NKC African Economies



On Tuesday, February 11, Sudan’s transitional government and rebel groups from Darfur agreed, in principle, that the individuals who are wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) should appear before the tribunal. 



This announcement was made on Tuesday in Juba, the capital of
neighbouring South Sudan, where government authorities and the Darfur rebels
are engaging in peace talks. 



Former President Omar Al-Bashir, who was deposed in a military-led
coup in April 2019, is the most high-profile among the individuals wanted by
the ICC: He faces charges of war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity
committed in Darfur. 



However, as things currently stand, the government has no
intention of extraditing Mr Bashir to The Hague. Al-Hassan Al-Taishi, a member
of the Sovereign Council, stated that during the negotiation in Juba, the two
sides agreed on a mechanism that would include “the appearance of those who
face arrest warrants before the ICC”. 



However, this agreement does not specify when and how Mr Bashir,
and the other parties involved, will be tried. 



Thus far, Mr Bashir has only been prosecuted domestically on
charges of money laundering and corruption, with further charges pending. He
has survived international prosecution due to disagreements within the
Sovereign Council. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the Forces of Freedom and
Change (FFC) – the civilian coalition in the Sovereign Council – have expressed
their support for sending Mr Bashir to The Hague. 



However, President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the military bloc of
the Sovereign Council vehemently oppose this. The senior military officers held
powerful positions under Mr Bashir and likely fear the repercussions if he is
convicted and the implications of their complacency and cooperation. 



Currently, the government maintains the stance that Mr Bashir
should face the ICC, but it has no intention of sending him out of the country.




The government favours a compromise in which the trial will take
place in Sudan, through a hybrid ICC/domestic court. This has the benefit of
smoothening the peace talks in Juba, gaining international support for Sudan,
and allowing the government to keep a firm hand on the prosecution. 



However, there are several problems with this plan. Sudan is not a
signatory of the Rome Statute and does not recognise the ICC’s authority, thus
the Court does not have jurisdiction in the country. Additionally, a trial of
this nature is highly unorthodox. It is unlikely that the ICC would agree to a
hybrid system – which could potentially include Sudanese officials – as it
risks diminishing the reputation and verdict of the Court. 



While the agreement between the Sovereign Council and the rebels
in Darfur is extraordinary, it does not necessarily mean that Mr Bashir will
have his day in court for his crimes committed in Darfur. 



It is unclear how this will play out, and currently, this is just
an agreement in principle. Sudan is under no legal obligation to hand Mr Bashir
over to the ICC. Moreover, the ICC has not agreed to the hybrid system nor to a
domestic prosecution. 



However, this move has gained international attention and support
for Sudan. This coincides with UN Secretary General António Guterres’s call to
remove Sudan from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism List (SSTL) and “to
mobilise massive international support to enable Sudan to overcome its
challenges”. 



This latest development plays directly into the government’s strategy of bringing peace to the Darfur region and riding a wave of optimism, which could help the ongoing talks with the US and increase the chances of being removed from the SSTL.

Op-Ed: Sudan’s Bashir one step closer to the ICC

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="555" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1110x555.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-353226" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1110x555.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-300x150.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-820x410.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-768x384.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-696x348.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1068x534.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-840x420.jpg 840w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet-1920x960.jpg 1920w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/shop-now-sign-tablet.jpg 2000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>E-shopping Online Business Promotion Shopaholic Concept</figcaption></figure>



By Derek Cikes



Consumer demands for a frictionless, personalised experience which caters for their lifestyle needs are set to drive online retail trends in 2020.&nbsp; The result is a focus on creating a customised experience that supports and enhances shopping in the virtual environment, facilitating the buying journey.



Derek Cikes, Commercial Director at payment fintech Payflex,
shares the top 8 online retail trends for the year ahead.



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Omnichannel retailing</li></ol>



As shoppers expand their touchpoints with a brand, the online and bricks-and-mortar channels will increasingly merge into a seamless omnichannel experience within the brand ecosystem.&nbsp; In order to facilitate this, merchants need to provide shoppers with an integrated shopping experience across all channels that allows shoppers to browse, shop and return items across in-store and online channels. 



 2. Pop-up Shops



2020 will see pop-up shops expanding beyond
brand awareness to provide shoppers with a curated shopping
experience.&nbsp;&nbsp; Leveraging the scarcity and exclusivity principles
associated with these temporary storefronts, shoppers will have access to novel
or limited brand items.&nbsp; Brands in turn will have the opportunity to
engage one-on-one with their customers while collecting shopper data.



This intimate connection will also enable
pop-up stores to take on a new position of facilitating brand experiences
rather than only focussing on the commercial aspect of a retail pop-up store.



“By providing a compelling pop-up experience, brands are able to differentiate themselves and establish a unique relationship with their target market,” says Cikes.



 3. User experience



User experience will be optimised by levering online
channels. Simplicity is the key, enabling the user to effortlessly navigate the
website and find and acquire the desired items.



This includes reducing the number of
steps to complete a payment transaction such as the seamless single click
checkout process which can dramatically increase sales conversions.&nbsp; 



“Our experience has shown that the Payflex 1-click checkout process can reduce cart abandonment by a whopping 40% &#8211;&nbsp; a huge benefit for ecommerce merchants,” says Cikes.



 4. Online security



Concerns about online security and privacy are one of the key challenges to growing online sales in South Africa.&nbsp; To provide comfort to shoppers, 2020 will see a focus on creating a secure online infrastructure and being transparent about the use of data, so that shoppers feel comfortable sharing their financial information.&nbsp; 



 5. The customer journey



The year ahead will see online stores
optimizing the customer journey through each touchpoint with the brand.&nbsp;
This will translate into establishing a strong online communications infrastructure,
supporting customers through a variety of online and social media platforms
throughout their purchasing journey.



This optimizes the shopper’s online experience, allowing the next steps to follow naturally &#8211; increasing conversions, customer retention and eventually brand advocacy.



 6. Payment choices



Consumers are increasingly wary of incurring
debt to purchase lifestyle goods, which has opened the door to alterative
non-credit pay later solutions, such as Payflex.&nbsp;&nbsp; 



“Customers want more control of their spending, encouraging the online retail industry to incorporate payment experiences which meet their needs, such as the free spending solution from Payflex which can boost sales by 20-30%,” says Cikes.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="330" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-353225" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1.jpg 624w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Payment-Choices-1-300x159.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px" /></figure>



 7. Online Ubiquity



The increase in social media retailing demands a pervasive online brand presence where shoppers can engage in a seamless experience with the brand and buy products directly from social media channels in a contained, accessible environment such as Instagram.&nbsp; 



 8. Machine Learning



The year ahead will leverage the
capabilities of artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide more
personalised shopping experiences.&nbsp; By using data and search history,
merchants can curate products and services specific to the shopper’s needs and
likes.&nbsp;&nbsp; This results in being able to customize each shopping
experience such as with sites like Amazon, where automatic suggestions are made
in addition to the purchase or music sites such as Spotify or Deeza which
leverage machine learning to provide a personal playlist based on a user’s data
and online search and listening history.



Final Comments



The
inter-relatedness of consumer demands and technological innovations creates one
of the central themes of online retail in 2020 – a symbiotic relationship
between shopper and technology.



“This will play out in new
avenues of innovation which meet consumer demands while leveraging technology
to create a meaningful online experience, moving shoppers further along the
customer journey to facilitate successful conversions,” concludes Cikes.

E-shopping Online Business Promotion Shopaholic Concept

Top 8 retail trends to watch in 2020

By George Ott, Economist, NKC African Economics 



On December 21, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara announced that the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (Waemu) and France had agreed to rename the CFA franc and implement a range of reforms to the long-standing regional currency.



Although talk of change had been in the air, the December announcement came as somewhat of a surprise, certainly to some others in the region.



The
formation of an independent monetary union and the adoption of a regional
currency has been a long-term goal for the broader 15-member Economic Community
of West African States (Ecowas), of which all the Waemu states are members.
Ecowas leaders met as recently as June 2019 and agreed to adopt a common
regional currency, to be called the ‘eco’, as early as 2020. 



However,
with manifold challenges facing this project, the Waemu states appear to feel
they were already in a position to get the reform ball rolling, ostensibly with
the goal of facilitating the eventual formation of an Ecowas regional monetary
union.



Aside
from the broader Ecowas debate, the reforms announced in December to be
implemented on the West African CFA franc include: renaming the CFA franc the
eco; scrapping the obligation requiring Waemu members to keep 50% of their
foreign reserves at the French central bank; and the withdrawal of all French
representatives from decision-making and management bodies of the West African
Monetary Union (comprising the same eight Waemu member countries). 



Significantly,
however, the eco will remain pegged to the euro and the Banque de France will
continue to guarantee the convertibility of the currency.



Although
these reforms represent the most substantial changes in the more than
seven-decade history of the CFA franc, it nevertheless received a mixed
reception. 



While
some commentators hailed the move as a significant breakaway from French
involvement and a step towards monetary independence, others pointed out that
the move was largely symbolic and the reforms ‘cosmetic’, as the maintenance of
the euro peg will continue to dictate the scope of regional monetary policy
decisions.



Another
significant challenge facing the eco lies in the Waemu member states satisfying
the convergence criteria for the adoption of the new common currency. 



Key
criteria are: maintaining a budget deficit of less than 3% of GDP; public debt
ratio of less than 70% of GDP; annual inflation rate of less than 10%; and, maintaining
a minimum of three months of import cover. Currently, it appears unlikely that
the majority of the Waemu countries will meet all these criteria by the very
ambitious inception date of July 2020.



Regional
giants and fellow Ecowas members Nigeria and Ghana have also weighed in on the
developments, adopting somewhat contrasting positions. 



While
Ghana came out strongly in favour of the eco and the formation of a broader
regional monetary union (although not in favour of the euro peg but rather a
floating exchange rate), Nigeria has taken a more cautious approach in first
considering its official response.



With
anti-colonial sentiment growing in the region, this move is perhaps mostly
symbolic at this stage, and is to the political benefit of Mr Ouattara and
France’s President Emmanuel Macron. However, this does not mean that it is not
significant. 



The
long-standing Ecowas goal of establishing an independent, regional monetary
union with a single currency remains in the minds of many in the region, and
the decision by the Waemu to make the first move may yet prove to be a valuable
viability test for this ideal. 



Yet, in the meantime, with the maintenance of the euro peg, the reforms are not expected to have much of an impact on the currency, at least not in the short- to medium term. Moreover, the goal of officially moving to the eco by mid-2020 may prove to be overly ambitious.

Westafrica_Wikimedia

Op-Ed: From CFA franc to ‘eco’, what you need to know about West Africa’s new currency

<figure>
 <img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301931/original/file-20191115-66973-fzxc4l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&#038;q=45&#038;auto=format&#038;w=754&#038;fit=clip" />
 <figcaption>
 The development of an industry in edible insects such as these mopane caterpillars has been slow.
 Shutterstock
 </figcaption>
 </figure>

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-musundire-870416">Robert Musundire</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/chinhoyi-university-of-technology-4166">Chinhoyi University of Technology</a>

There is a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/40128873_Insects_as_food_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa">wealth of indigenous knowledge</a> about capturing and eating insects in sub-Saharan Africa. But the development of edible insects as a food industry has been very slow, despite its many potential benefits. 

Sustainability is one. Insects have a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0051145#s4">small carbon and water footprint</a>. <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3253e/i3253e.pdf?utm_content=bufferf4265&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer.SEIresearch">Studies</a> show that insect farming emits less carbon and methane gas than large livestock like cattle and pigs. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/11/6190">Much less water</a> is needed to produce the same amount of protein. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032111003625?via%3Dihub">Insects use feed</a> more efficiently than other sources of animal protein. Farming them could be a new source of jobs and income. 

There should be more awareness and promotion of insects as food for humans and as feed for animals, especially at the policy, legislative and business level. In most African nations, edible insects are still viewed as an insignificant source of food and even, in some instances, as food for the poor. There are very few success stories of large-scale insect farming and industrial use in Africa. 

We have been involved <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqc57qRcpTo&amp;feature=youtu.be">in a project</a> to promote the integrated use of insects as food in urban areas in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our project works on the edible insect value chain and discovered that the seasonal supply of insects and poor hygiene standards made the market unstable and unattractive to consumers. Traders sold insects in an informal setting and had little interaction with farmers. 

We carried out training among farmers, traders, municipalities and others with an interest in this emerging industry. The training included how to handle and process insects after they were harvested, food safety along the value chain and farming crickets (Acheta domesticus and Gryllus bumaculatus).

The trainees have learnt how to rear and sell insects better and have become more aware of what a sustainable value chain should look like. For example, market facilities have to be clean and there must be a steady supply of insects. The training also created awareness of the need to farm insects rather than catching them in the wild. Catching insects can reduce insect populations dramatically when consumption increases. And there are no food safety standards for wild insects. 

Together with the urban council in the town of Chinhoyi in Zimbabwe we built a model market structure where traders are selling their insects. Traders are selling some of the most popular edible insects; wild harvested mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina), termites (Macrotermes natalensis) and wild harvested crickets. Farmers are still building stocks of farmed crickets, but the plan is to sell farmed crickets in the near future. It is still too early to see the impact but one notable improvement is hygiene. The market has also helped women traders, who are the main group selling insects there. They have become more organised about their business. 

We hope this will lead to an increase in consumer willingness to buy edible insects, and demonstrate best practice to other regions of Zimbabwe and beyond. Through our project, we have also helped insect traders and farmers to form industry associations. 

<h2>Why insects are valuable</h2>

Insects are <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3253e/i3253e.pdf?utm_content=bufferf4265&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer.SEIresearch">highly nutritious and contain protein</a>, fat and energy in proportions similar to grains, vegetables and seeds. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S122686151830671X">They are rich</a> in macro minerals like calcium, sodium and magnesium and micro minerals like zinc, manganese, iron and copper, all of which should be part of a healthy diet. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, these minerals come from fruits and vegetables, most of which are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919216303840?via%3Dihub">farmed seasonally</a>. Edible insects could supply these minerals during seasons where there is less fruit and vegetable production.

They contain essential amino acids such as threonine, cysteine, valine, methionine and isoleucine. The recommended daily minimum intake of amino acids can be consumed by eating just 100 grams of the <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0145914">edible stink bug</a> (Encosternum delegorguei), for example. 

Earlier this year, parts of eastern and southern Africa were ravaged by <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/crisis-update-cyclones-idai-and-kenneth">Cyclone Idai</a>. The cyclone destroyed crops and livestock, causing severe food shortages. We believe that in disaster-struck areas, edible insects can build resilience by being a food resource in recovery programmes and an alternative to traditional smallholder farming. There is an <a href="https://foodtank.com/news/2018/03/farms-for-orphans-insect-farming-democratic-republic-congo/">excellent example </a>of that in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where orphanages have started insect farms to grow their own protein. The farms have helped decrease hunger and improve health among the orphans.

<hr>

 
 
 Read more:
 <a href="http://theconversation.com/economic-chaos-is-causing-a-food-security-and-humanitarian-crisis-in-zimbabwe-124791">Economic chaos is causing a food security and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe</a>
 
 

<hr>


<h2>What needs to happen?</h2>

We were involved in setting up an <a href="https://www.slu.se/EdibleInsectsAfrica">international conference</a> in Zimbabwe to discuss ways to foster the edible insects industry. 

Research is required so that policy makers and those involved in the sector – farmers, processes, marketers and consumers – can make evidence-based decisions. This must happen across disciplines. Researchers should work with farmers and people in business to foster skills, innovation and enterprise. For example, they could develop business cases and scenarios.

Policy makers must understand that the sector is unique. Edible insects have not been categorised under any agricultural sub-sector such as crop or animal farming. On the African continent, they have not previously been farmed and treated as a commodity. That is why it would be helpful to establish and coordinate platforms such as meetings, workshops, exhibitions, magazines and websites.

Policy should also allow innovation and investment to happen at national, regional and international levels. Industry participants will need access to markets and credit.

Farmers, food and feed processors, traders and marketers must seize opportunities to invest and enter niche markets. They can also contribute to policy development and share knowledge about traditional ways of producing and eating insects. 

There is <a href="http://www.mopaneworm.com/">momentum</a> generated by <a href="https://ace2.iucea.org/index.php/2018-01-22-22-04-02/aces-at-a-glance/sacids-2">several research</a> and business initiatives that <a href="https://gourmetgrubb.com/">have been ignited</a> in sub-Saharan Africa. And there is growing enthusiasm for using edible insects as alternative sources of protein and to build resilience against climatic shocks. It’s an essential step towards improving food security in the region.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125828/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-musundire-870416">Robert Musundire</a>, Associate Professor of Entomology in the Department of Crop Science and Post-Harvest Technology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/chinhoyi-university-of-technology-4166">Chinhoyi University of Technology</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-were-involved-in-a-project-in-africa-to-promote-edible-insects-125828">original article</a>.

Shutterstock_Insects

This project in Africa promotes edible insects, here’s why

By David S. Levin, writer from New York 



For what it’s worth, I’m not an alarmist. I write what I see in an attempt to make sense of the bedlam swirling all around us. But frankly, a lot of what’s happening lately is actually pretty damn alarming. Today, there are vital freedoms like privacy that are under attack from anxious governments all over that see it as a threat to their dominion and sovereignty. And they’re using bleeding-edge technology as their weapon of choice. 



Thanks to a burgeoning electronic surveillance
industry, a grim high-tech future is slowly unfolding that could’ve been
written by George Orwell himself. But, instead, it’s being written by
technocrats and politicians. And you can bet your last bitcoin that if Big
Brother isn’t snooping around your country yet, they will be soon enough. 



Enter China. The 800-pound dystopian
gorilla in the room and the poster child for mass public surveillance gone mad.
To the Chinese, privacy is the enemy of the state. So, the government, not known
for its delicate touch, rolled-out the Skynet Project and put up 200 million
CCTV cameras across the country that feed directly into local and regional law
enforcement agencies. That basically works out to one camera for every seven
people there; watching, identifying, recording and analysing every move they
make. 



Cleverly wrapped in the guise of “public
safety,” the literal Chinese translation of the word Skynet is “Tianwang” which
is part of an idiom that means “justice is always done.” This way, none of
China’s 1.4 billion citizens will ever have to think too hard about who’s in
charge. 



But that’s just the prologue. By some
estimates, they’re expected to reach a staggering 625 million CCTV cameras, all
outfitted with artificial intelligence and video analytics, within just a few
years. And there are some projections showing numbers that are even higher. The
saying “you can run but you can’t hide” has taken on an entirely new meaning
there. 



In today’s China, everyone’s a suspect.



And here’s the punchline.
Despite all the moral outrage about this in the West, not to mention the
fallout from Donald Trump’s punitive trade war with China, much of the
technology used there is still developed and sold by top American tech
companies like Hewlett Packard, IBM, Microsoft, Intel, and Seagate
Technologies. And not just to the Chinese. Silicon Valley companies have an
active presence in 32 countries around the world.



Last year, the worldwide
market for video surveillance stood at $36.89bn of which China accounted for
nearly $18 billion. And according to IHS Markit, by the end of 2021 the number
of surveillance cameras deployed worldwide is expected to top one billion. 



Suffice it to say, Big Tech
is all in on the global surveillance boom. No matter who buys it. 



China’s President, Xi Jinping, is
busily building a digital authoritarian empire in his own image. And just to be
sure he’s around long enough to see the completion of his grand masterpiece, he
removed term-limits to China’s constitution and is now president for life. Nice
touch.



His cutting-edge surveillance state is
tracking China’s resident’s day and night with sophisticated facial recognition
technology, zeroing in on criminals and people whose
“tendencies” go against the state. With hundreds of citizens displayed in a
single video frame, cameras place thin yellow squares around people’s faces
with unique identifying numbers on top as they walk the streets in cities like
Beijing or Qingdao. Fed into massive government databases, complex algorithms
crunch and analyse the images, tracking and identifying people who might be
considered suspicious for any number of reasons and then notifying law
enforcement or other agencies. 



In Xinjiang
recently, which is a semi-autonomous, largely Muslim region in northwestern
China, their provincial surveillance system recently identified 24,000
suspicious persons in a single week using facial recognition technology. Of
those, 15,000 were sent to re-education camps to be “standardized.” Clearly,
the Chinese have figured out that combining Mao Zedong-style repression with
unrelenting electronic surveillance is the perfect digital stick to regulate
the masses. 



But now, they’re getting really creative.
They’re using their sprawling web of closed-circuit cameras, database
technology and artificial intelligence to feed directly into a scoring system
that assigns “social credit scores” to each of their citizens. It is designed
to rate their trustworthiness and “public desirability” by analyzing their
social behavior and then determining what they can do, what they can buy, and
even if they can travel. 



And as part of a broader
surveillance push, and in the name of national security, they’re even
“encouraging” people to use <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone_app">mobile phone apps</a>
developed by the government that allow civilians
to report violations against the state. In the old days, it was just called
ratting out your friends and neighbors. Now, thankfully, like everything else
these days, there’s an app for that.



In China, Big Brother has arrived with a bang.
Call it Mao 2.0&nbsp;&nbsp; 



So, here’s the question. How
long will it be until other governments start pushing the line like the Chinese
have? Try imagining this in the U.S. or the UK.
Maybe in Brazil or Canada. “That would never happen here” you’re probably
thinking to yourself.&nbsp; Well, don’t think
too hard. Because much of the technology being used in China is already in use
in other countries around the world. Just not quite in the same way. At least
not yet.



The West has been watching
the Chinese develop their digital web since they first laid out the blueprints
for the wholesale surveillance of its citizenry. The United States already has
over 60 million CCTV cameras feeding into law enforcement around the country.
In the UK, there are an estimated 6 million of them. According to some
estimates, the average Londoner is caught on camera roughly 300 times a day. And
in the U.S., cities like Washington, Orlando and Denver are openly testing
facial recognition and other AI technologies in their policing. As expected, the
lawsuits are flying fast and furious.&nbsp; 



What’s happening in China today
should be viewed as a cautionary tale for the U.S. and other democracies. Mass electronic
surveillance has serious implications for the way urban life will play out in
the decades ahead. And there is nothing the Chinese are doing that couldn’t be implemented
anywhere else given the right, or more accurately, the wrong political conditions.




If this potential dire future
isn’t halted through the use of a strong judicial system and hardened grass-
roots activism, what’s happening in China today could be a preview of the way
order is established and maintained in the 21st century.



And George Orwell could wind
up being even be more prophetic than any of us ever dreamed.

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