<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-rotberg-171817">By Robert Rotberg</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/harvard-university-1306">Harvard University</a>
When President Emmerson Mnangagwa <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-first-mugabe-free-election-mnangagwa-promises-western-cash-but-little-else-99228">campaigned</a> in July for Zimbabwe’s presidency, he promised to be a business friendly leader, and to return his country’s economy to twentieth century times of plenty and prosperity.
But Mnangagwa has already shown himself incapable of jettisoning the state centrist, rent-seeking predilections of his predecessor. A “big-bang” sharp break with Zimbabwe’s recent past is essential to reassure consumers and capitalists. Yet Mnangagwa and his cronies have so far rejected anything forward-looking and sensible.
Mnangagwa’s administration is struggling to overcome the national <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/shops-shut-doors-as-zimbabwe-financial-crisis-deepens-17414862">economic destruction</a> wreaked on Zimbabwe over two decades under Robert Mugabe. This included profligate spending, immense debt pileup, colossal corruption, and ravaging of the country’s once immensely productive agricultural sector.
As a result, Zimbabwe now lacks foreign exchange with which to buy petrol and ordinary goods to stock the shelves of its supermarkets. In the last few weeks many shops – such as Edgars, a long-time clothing store; Teta, an eatery; KFC, a fast food outlet – have simply <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/shops-shut-doors-as-zimbabwe-financial-crisis-deepens-17414862">shut their doors</a>. Queues for petrol stretch for miles.
<a href="http://nehandaradio.com/2018/10/13/zimbabwe-currency-crisis-no-cash-no-bread-no-kfc/">Banks have no US dollars</a>, or South African rands or Botswana pulas (the notional national currency), and therefore cannot supply stores or customers with the funds to carry on business as usual.
The locally created <a href="https://zwnews.com/latest-us-dollar-zimbabwe-bond-note-trgs-exchange-rates-today-9-october-2018/">Zimbabwe bond note</a> which is officially supposed to trade 1 to 1 with the US dollar, has been trading as high as 10 to 1 on the Harare black market according to unconfirmed local shopping experiences. In its October 20th edition The Economist reported that the bond note, known unofficial as <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbabwe/zimbabwes-bond-notes-being-traded-outside-borders-report-20170516">the zollar</a>, was trading for as little as 17 cents, or roughly 6-1.
The new administration has naturally resorted to <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/international/zimbabwes-currency-crisis-shows-little-sign-of-abating-17052960">printing</a> its own faux money. That inevitably has led, as always, to hyperinflation and monetary collapse.
China may yet help Mnangagwa – but in exchange for multi-years worth of precious minerals and Virginia tobacco at discounted prices. With Zimbabwe’s leadership so thoroughly tainted by decades of peculation and mendacity, and devoid of any real notion of “the public interest,” Mnangagwa’s regime is otherwise unlikely to clean up the prevailing fiscal mess because of its refusal to break sharply with the fiscal derring-do of the Mugabe era. Its principals continue to profit from Zimbabwe’s economic mayhem.
<h2>What went wrong</h2>
Zimbabwe’s economic weaknesses are unsustainable. Governments in such parlous straits would turn, even now, to the International Monetary Fund, for a bailout – as <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/2168507/pakistans-khan-slams-imf-then-seeks-bailout-why-change">Pakistan</a> has just done. But Zimbabwe is already in arrears to the international lending institutions and has very few helpful friends left.
Government is running a hefty overdraft. And it’s been unable to collect as much as it needs from the national tax base. Its now attempting to impose a <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Africa/zimbabwe-slaps-catastrophic-tax-on-electronic-transactions-20181001">2% tax </a> on internal electronic financial transactions. This only shows desperation. If implemented, it could yield twice as much revenue as is derived annually from VAT. But that losing manoeuvre has already helped drive commerce underground. It has also undermined what little confidence consumers and financiers have in their current rulers.
The Mnangagwa government has also reimposed import and <a href="http://businessdaily.co.zw/index-id-national-zk-38015.html">exchange controls</a>, thus creating additional incentives to avoid regular channels of commerce. Those controls also permit officials to allocate “scarce” resources and licenses to import, export, and so on. These are well-known occasions for corruption and for giving rent-seeking opportunities to cronies.
It wasn’t always this bad. Despite the massive loss of formal employment that occurred under Mugabe, the informal sector flourished and Zimbabwe’s poor probably benefited. This was partly because under the unity government of 2009-2013, when Tendai Biti of the Movement for Democratic Change was finance minister, there were no such controls and there were plenty of US dollars and no questionable bond notes and Treasury bills. Hard currency (the US dollar) permitted Zimbabwe to start growing economically after the long Mugabe slide, and individuals and businesses to prosper. The country ran a budgetary surplus.
But this all came to an end when the government of national unity <a href="https://pindula.co.zw/Government_of_National_Unity">collapsed</a> in 2012.
<h2>What needs to happen</h2>
To begin to restore the economy, the government needs to acknowledge corrupt dealings and repatriate the huge amounts of cash that have fled the country as laundered money.
The regime could also try to take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/17/robert-grace-mugabe-missing-millions-money-zimababwe">ill-gotten gains</a> away from Mugabe and Grace Mugabe, as <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2018/0703/Former-Malaysian-leader-arrested-for-theft-money-laundering">Malaysia’s new government</a> is doing to its previous kleptocratic prime minister and his wife.
Gestures in that direction would help to begin to restore confidence, a step towards eventual prosperity. So would promises to restore the rule of law. Investors might also return if a sound currency was likely. But that would only follow shedding of ministers, civil service layoffs, military reductions, and many other indications that Mnangagwa and his minister of finance were serious about reducing the debt hangover.
Cutting some sort of deal with the IMF would also be worthwhile, but that could mean giving control over the Treasury to foreign advisors. Zimbabwe is and, since Biti’s day, has been, a basket case. It’s time to acknowledge that fiscal reality and to do something about it.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104960/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-rotberg-171817">Robert Rotberg</a>, Founding Director of Program on Intrastate Conflict, Kennedy School, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/harvard-university-1306">Harvard University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-economy-is-collapsing-why-mnangagwa-doesnt-have-the-answers-104960">original article</a>.

Why Mnangagwa doesn’t have the answers to Zimbabwe’s troubled economy

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; A Lagos judge adjourned a hearing on Tuesday in a $10.1-billion dispute between South African telecoms firm MTN Group and Nigeria’s central bank to Dec 4.
The central bank alleges the firm illegally sent $8.1 billion abroad, and the Nigerian government has demanded $2 billion in taxes from MTN.
MTN, which makes about a third of its annual core profit in Nigeria, has said the allegations are without merit.
Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha and Didi Akinyelure; Writing by Paul Carsten; editing by John Stonestreet

Court case between MTN and Nigeria’s central bank postponed

Press Release provided by Stats SA.
The South African working-age population increased by 153 000 or 0,4% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2018. The number of employed persons increased by 92 000 to 16,4 million and the number of unemployed persons rose by 127 000 to 6,2 million in Q3: 2018. The absorption rate remained unchanged at 43,1% and the unemployment rate increased by 0,3 of a percentage point to 27,5% in the same period.
In Q3: 2018, the informal sector recorded employment gains of 188 000, while the Formal sector, Private households and Agriculture recorded declines in employment. The number of discouraged work-seekers declined by 131 000 while the number of other not economically active persons increased by 65 000, resulting in a decrease of 66 000 (down by 0,4%) in the number of people not in the labour force between the second and third quarters of 2018.
Compared to a year ago, employment increased by 1,2% (188 000), unemployment decreased by 1 000 and the number of persons who were not economically active increased by 2,8% (424 000) – 297 000 being discouraged work-seekers.

South Africa’s unemployment rate rises to 27,5% in Q3

LAGOS/JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; MTN Group, Africa’s biggest mobile operator, will keep engaging with Nigerian authorities to resolve a $10.1 billion dispute with the west African country, but is putting its faith in the courts to protect itself, its CEO said on Monday.
The telecom firm, which makes about a third of its annual core profit in Nigeria, has said the allegations are without merit, but added that no further negative steps have been taken by authorities in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s central bank on Aug. 29 ordered the South African firm and its lenders to bring $8.1 billion back into Nigeria that it alleges the company sent abroad in breach of foreign exchange regulations. MTN also faces a $2 billion tax demand from the country’s attorney general.
MTN has denied any wrongdoing, and filed a court case against the central bank.
“We have continued engagement with authorities, exchanging documentation and there is genuine will to reach an amicable situation,” MTN’s Chief Executive Officer Rob Shuter said on a conference call.
“However, we need to protect ourselves and we are relying on the courts in Nigeria to make sure there’s an amicable resolution.”
A court hearing between the central bank and MTN on the $8.1 billion repatriation case is scheduled for Tuesday.
Shuter said investors should note that the company did not expect a resolution to come through then.
“No further negative steps have been taken by the authorities in Nigeria, however it is important to keep legal steps going,” Shuter said, adding that MTN was not carrying out any repatriations from Nigeria for now.
“Tomorrow (Tuesday) we are likely to have an adjourned date because more information will likely be requested, however, it is important to create an environment to look for continued solutions.”
Shuter said although it had been a difficult quarter due to the regulatory challenges in Nigeria, the company still managed to put in a strong performance in Africa’s biggest economy with data revenue growing.
MTN said its debut stock market listing in Nigeria may slip into early 2019 because it needs to work on the format for the share sale.
It reported a 1.1 percent rise in quarterly user base, helped partly by strong performances in Nigeria.
The company said its user base increased by 2.5 million subscribers to 225.4 million users in the quarter ended September, and mobile money customers grew by 1.7 million to 25.8 million users.
Mobile money customers charge their phones with cash, and send it to friends or family via the short message service. These counterparties can then make similar transfers or cash in their credits with pre-approved agents, such as merchants or banks.
Reporting by Didi Akinyelure and Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos and Tiisetso Motsoeneng in Johannesburg; Writing by James Macharia; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise

Here’s what MTN is relying on to end dispute with Nigeria

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South African lender Nedbank said on Monday it would appoint Ernst &amp; Young as joint external auditors in May 2019, becoming the latest firm to drop the scandal-hit KPMG’s local unit.
The auditor’s South African unit has been under close scrutiny since 2017 over work done for a company owned by the Gupta brothers &#8211; who have been accused of using their links to former president Jacob Zuma to influence government decisions and the awarding of tenders &#8211; and more recently for small lender VBS Mutual Bank. The Guptas and Zuma have denied any wrongdoing.
KPMG sacked its South African leadership in September last year after it found work done for the firm owned by the Guptas “fell considerably short” of its standards.
KPMG said in a statement that Nedbank’s decision was part of efforts to introduce mandatory audit firm rotation.
“It is always disappointing to lose a client but we remain very proud of the work that we have performed for Nedbank over many years,” the firm’s executive chairman Wiseman Nkhulu said.
More than 10 clients across various sectors have severed ties with KPMG since last year, including South Africa’s auditor general, Barclays Africa and miner Sibanye Stillwater.
In June, KPMG said it would lay off 400 staff and close small regional offices in response to losing the clients.
A central bank investigation published this month said South Africa should seek damages from global auditor KPMG for the role it played in a corruption scandal that saw at least 1.9 billion rand($131 million) stolen from local bank VBS.
($1 = 14.5098 rand)
Editing by James Macharia and Emelia Sithole-Matarise

KPMG dropped by South Africa’s Nedbank, what you need to know

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241212/original/file-20181018-67188-12rs5mq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20181018 67188 12rs5mq.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>The WHO recommends HIV viral load testing to monitor people on ARVs. 
Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenda-gray-111201">By Glenda Gray</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/south-african-medical-research-council-1976">South African Medical Research Council</a>
A United Nations <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/909090">initiative</a> backed by global experts has set its sights on an ambitious programme to bring an end to the AIDS epidemic by 2030.
The 90-90-90 strategy aims to do this by reaching three targets: 90% of all people with HIV must know their status, 90% of those diagnosed with HIV must receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of people receiving antiretroviral therapy must be virally suppressed. When a person is <a href="http://www.who.int/hiv/mediacentre/news/viral-supression-hiv-transmission/en/">virally suppressed</a> it means the virus in their blood is undetectable. The last goal is informed by <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/article/PIIS2352-3018(17)30183-2/fulltext#%20">evidence</a> that people with a suppressed viral load are less likely to transmit HIV to others.
But a couple of steps still need to be taken before these goals can be met. The first is large scale community based HIV testing that aims to get people tested on an annual basis at the very least. The second is linking testing to care. This is critical because it addresses the gap between a person being diagnosed with HIV to when they start antiretroviral therapy.
The third step is the close monitoring of people taking antiretroviral medication. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/255702/9789241512633-eng.pdf?sequence=1">viral load testing</a> as the primary method of monitoring people on antiretroviral therapy. Viral load is the measure of the amount of HIV in a person’s blood and is used as a measure of how well a person is responding to HIV treatment. The lower the viral load the better the health outcomes.
WHO guidelines advise that all patients on antiretroviral therapy receive a viral load test at six months and 12 months, and annually thereafter if the patient is stable. But very few patients receive that level of care.
The main barrier is the time it takes to get test results back from laboratories that are often situated great distances from clinics. One way round the problem is to enable viral load testing to take place at primary health care level – what’s known as point-of-care viral load testing. This would be a game changer. Results would be known immediately and health workers could intervene swiftly by evaluating antiretroviral treatments in real time. This would, in turn, improve treatment outcomes.
But achieving this requires innovation. A new approach is being piloted. The idea is to test if point-of-care viral load monitoring is in reach.
<h2>Testing</h2>
Monitoring the viral loads of people on antiretroviral therapy is an essential part of HIV management. Viral load testing helps doctors determine if a person is taking their medication as prescribed. It also helps to determine if patients are on the correct combination of antiretroviral drugs.
It’s a key part of the arsenal against HIV because research shows that people who are virally suppressed are less likely to pass on the virus to someone else. That makes it a key factor in breaking the cycle of transmission.
The most efficient way of doing this is through point-of-care testing sites. These are based within the community so that patients don’t have to travel long distances to get tests done as well as to receive treatment. This new model is being piloted with the aim of providing convenient access to care for patients.
Currently nearly all viral load testing is conducted in centralised and <a href="http://www.nhls.ac.za/?page=hiv_pcr&amp;id=61">designated laboratories</a>. This means that there can be lags in getting results back to the field. Patients can wait for weeks.
Laboratory based viral load testing is also expensive. Point-of-care testing is also cheaper than lab-based viral loads: health care workers could do the test rather than highly paid technicians.
Small steps have been made in the direction of enabling viral load monitoring to be done at point of care.
But additional equipment is also needed. Pilots evaluating point-of-care viral load testing are ongoing. A pilot is being run using a portable testing machine – the m-PIMA HIV1/2 – that fits on a desk top and can provide an accurate reading of viral load in under 70 minutes.
The machine is being tested to establish whether it meets WHO standards. Once it is given the stamp of approval by the WHO, ministries of health can start the implementation at all sites.
<h2>Closing the gap</h2>
All countries still struggling to bring the HIV pandemic under control are focused on achieving the 90-90-90 goals.
South Africa, which still has the <a href="http://www.unaids.org/en/regionscountries/countries/southafrica">biggest HIV epidemic in the world</a>, with 7.9 million people living with <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/9234/SABSSMV_Impact_Assessment_Summary_ZA_ADS_cleared_PDFA4.pdf">HIV</a>, is no exception, and is making significant progress.
It is edging closer to the target of having 90% of people with HIV <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/9234/SABSSMV_Impact_Assessment_Summary_ZA_ADS_cleared_PDFA4.pdf">knowing their status</a>. And it’s made significant progress on the second target that 90% of people with HIV should be on treatment.
But it has some way to go on the third. While the country is on track to meet the goal that 90% of people on treatment be virally suppressed, it’s advances on this front haven’t been uniform. Some regions of the country still lag behind others. Being able to roll out point of care testing would go a long way in helping close these gaps.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104432/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glenda-gray-111201">Glenda Gray</a>, Research Professor, Perinatal HIV Research Unit and President, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/south-african-medical-research-council-1976">South African Medical Research Council</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-innovation-can-help-end-the-aids-epidemic-by-2030-104432">original article</a>.

Innovation can assist in the end of the AIDS epidemic by 2030, here’s how

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240415/original/file-20181012-119144-mkc6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20181012 119144 mkc6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>Kenya is ill-prepared for the environmental, health and safety impacts that accompany oil production. 
Signature Message/Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/melba-k-wasunna-441896">By Melba K. Wasunna</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/strathmore-university-2081">Strathmore University</a>
After decades of failed attempts, Kenya finally <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/03/2012326174456726672.html">struck oil six years ago</a>. <a href="https://nationaloil.co.ke/pdf/NOCK_Newsletter.pdf">Commercially viable</a> reserves were discovered in Turkana – the northwest of the country– by British oil company, Tullow Oil. The basin is estimated to contain about <a href="https://www.tullowoil.com/operations/east-africa/kenya">560 million barrels of oil</a>.
While commercial production is a few years away, there’s <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/epwg/EHS-Discussion-Paper-Policy-Dialogues.pdf">growing</a> concern that Kenya isn’t ready for the environmental, health and safety risks that accompany oil production.
A <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/epwg/EHS-Discussion-Paper-Policy-Dialogues.pdf">recent forum</a> involving key stakeholders – community, civil society organisations and the Ministry of Health – outlined some of these concerns. These 
include that; workers aren’t well protected, waste isn’t being well disposed of and water sources could be <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/water-quality-quantity-versus-turkana-oil-production-daniel-lagat/">contaminated</a>. Other problems identified included the fact that those regulating these issues don’t have clear mandates and that policies and standards that deal with managing risks don’t exist or aren’t clear.
Kenya has several state agencies that try to regulate the industry. This means that there’s an uncoordinated approach and a great deal of uncertainty. A framework is needed that speaks specifically to environment, health and safety for the oil sector. It must have a clear division of roles and responsibilities, ensuring the sector is efficient, and encouraging investment.
<h2>Oil spills and pollution</h2>
A key concern for communities in the Turkana area is how waste and pollution will be managed. This includes; the disposal of drill cuttings, reduced air quality due to flaring of gas and negative impacts on human and animal health.
There’s also concern over the technology used to handle hazardous waste as it doesn’t meet the standards of those in other countries. For instance, <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/Publications:%20Government/Final%20SESA%20Report%20March%202017.pdf">most</a> waste oil treatment facilities don’t meet international standards and are run by the informal sector.
Trying to deal with these risks is challenging and there are significant gaps in policies and laws.
For example, there’s a general <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/bills/2017/Petroleum_Exploration_DevelopmentandProductionBill_2017.pdf">requirement</a> that contractors be prepared in case of an emergency – like a fire. But there’s no direction of who is responsible for what and the procedures that must be followed. Kenya’s National oil Spill Contingency Plan is meant to make this clearer, but it has been in draft form for over four years.
There also needs to be clarity on who is responsible for damage incurred as a result of oil spills or other pollution. Currently the <a href="https://kma.go.ke/index.php/marine-environment/oil-spill-response">Kenya Maritime Authority</a> is responsible for coordinating this, but they are a maritime agency – authority should rest with the National Environment Management Authority.
<h2>Worker safety</h2>
There also need to be more policies that protect the health and safety of workers. An <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org/klr/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/OccupationalSafetyandHealth(No.15of2007).pdf">occupational safety and health act</a> in on the statute books. But there are no policy guidelines that look at how health and safety is monitored. These are needed to govern the industry’s hazardous work operations like; rigging safety, flaring of gas, drilling or chemicals handling.
Policies should be created by the Ministry of Petroleum and Mining in collaboration with the other relevant ministries – like environment and health.
Other policies that need to be reviewed include those related to reducing the risk of fires – <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/lex/sublegview.xql?subleg=No.%2015%20of%202007#KE/LEG/EN/AR/O/NO.%2015%20OF%202007/SUBLEG/HC_17">current legislation</a> only deals with small workplace fires – and those related to first aid.
Regulations must also be drawn up to cover community health and safety. These don’t exist yet the impact of oil and gas operations goes beyond the workplace.
Finally, there are <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/Publications:%20Government/Final%20SESA%20Report%20March%202017.pdf">not enough</a> health facilities and emergency service providers should accidents occur.
<h2>Regulation issues</h2>
Three key bodies are meant to regulate environment, health and safety issues in the sector. These are the <a href="https://www.erc.go.ke/">Energy and Regulatory Commission</a>; the <a href="http://www.labour.go.ke/directorate-of-occupational-safety-and-health-services-doshs/">Directorate of Safety and Health Services</a> and the <a href="https://www.nema.go.ke/">National Environmental Management Authority</a>. But their activities aren’t coordinated. This means that companies aren’t being held to proper enforcement and compliance regulations.
Regulations can also clash. For instance, the <a href="http://www.kenyalaw.org/klr/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/OccupationalSafetyandHealth(No.15of2007).pdf">occupational safety and health laws</a> require workplaces that use or produce toxic substances to <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/Publications:%20Government/Final%20SESA%20Report%20March%202017.pdf">ensure</a> they’re safely collected, recycled or disposed of. But there isn’t currently a body that can actually process waste coming from the oil and gas sector. The closest facility is in <a href="http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/environment/uganda-gets-its-first-oil-waste-treatment-plant.html">Uganda</a>.
<h2>Developing policy</h2>
There are attempts to improve on policy. Kenya’s occupational safety and health act, for example, is <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/862581530195474639/pdf/Plan-Archive-14.pdf">under review</a>. But it’s not easy.
Developing policies, and ensuring they’re adhered to, is a major challenge as government regulatory bodies lack skills and manpower. The Directorate of Safety and Health Services, for instance, <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_protect/@protrav/@safework/documents/policy/wcms_187632.pdf">has</a> 71 professional officers to inspect about 140,000 workplaces. This is a huge challenge for inspectors working in the remote areas where oil exploration is taking place. They <a href="http://extractives-baraza.com/assets/content/PDF/Publications:%20Government/Final%20SESA%20Report%20March%202017.pdf">can take</a> one to two years before they visit, leaving most workers exposed to hazards.
The goods news is that steps are being taken. the <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/862581530195474639/pdf/Plan-Archive-14.pdf">environmental and occupational health and safety</a> policies are under review by two different set of consultants to establish more robust policies and guidelines.
Legally, efforts are also being taken to coordinate an approach. The <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/bills/2017/Petroleum_Exploration_DevelopmentandProductionBill_2017.pdf">new bill is</a> being considered by the Senate. Among other things it proposes a new Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
Over the last three years, a technical assistance project has also <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/531591529359535996/pdf/Disclosable-Version-of-the-ISR-Kenya-Petroleum-Technical-Assistance-Project-KEPTAP-P145234-Sequence-No-07.pdf">trained</a> 220 government officers in lead agencies responsible for enforcement of environment, health and safety regulations.
These developments are all encouraging. But it’s important that policymakers don’t adopt a one-size-fits-all approach but rather develop methods that adequately address the specific needs and priorities of the oil industry and the risks it brings.
Laura Muniafu, of Strathmore University’s Extractives Baraza, assisted in the writing of this article<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103845/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/melba-k-wasunna-441896">Melba K. Wasunna</a>, Director and Lecturer, Extractives Baraza, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/strathmore-university-2081">Strathmore University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-kenya-needs-to-do-to-better-protect-those-working-in-the-oil-sector-103845">original article</a>.

Is Kenya doing enough to protect workers in the oil sector ?

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; MTN Group, Africa’s biggest mobile operator, reported a 1.1 percent rise in quarterly user base on Monday, helped partly by strong performances in Nigeria, its largest but increasingly problematic market.
The company said its user base increased by 2.5 million subscribers to 225.4 million users in the quarter ended September, and mobile money customers grew by 1.7 million to 25.8 million users.
Mobile money customers charge their phones with cash, and send it to friends or family via the short message service. These counterparties can then make similar transfers or cash in their credits with pre-approved agents, such as merchants or banks.
MTN is embroiled in a $10.1 billion dispute with the west African country of Nigeria, which has accused the company of illegally sending money abroad.
The telecom firm, which makes about a third of its annual core profit in Nigeria, said the allegations are without merit.
Nigeria’s central bank on Aug. 29 ordered the South African firm and its lenders to bring $8.1 billion back into Nigeria that it alleges the company sent abroad in breach of foreign exchange regulations. MTN also faces a $2 billion tax demand from the country’s attorney general.
“We continue to engage with relevant authorities on these matters. We remain resolute that MTN Nigeria has not committed any offences and will continue to defend this position vigorously,” MTN said while posting the quarterly results.
Reporting by Tiisetso Motsoeneng, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

MTN’s strong performance in Nigeria aid rise in Q3 subscribers despite dispute

PRESS RELEASE
JOHANNESBURG, 26 OCTOBER 2018 – South African holiday makers are less likely to switch off and are more connected to work when they’re on holiday than their UK, North American and Antipodean counterparts.
A recent survey conducted on behalf of Trafalgar, a global travel brand that forms part of The Travel Corporation (TTC), which also encompasses such brands as Costsaver, Insight Vacations, Luxury Gold, Contiki, Busabout, Uniworld and U by Uniworld, indicated that South Africans were under significantly more pressure than their global holiday counterparts to balance staying connected to social media and work, while also making the most of their holiday.
The study, explains Teresa Richardson, MD South Africa for The Travel Corporation, was aimed at exploring what people believed to be ‘The Good Life’ (everyone’s stated ambition) and whether travel contributes to it. Participants revealed that travel is about happiness, wellness and doing something new instead of collecting things.
Some 63% of South Africans polled said they felt guilty if they were not making enough of their holiday by going to see the sights, compared with 39% of Brits, 49% of Americans and 43% of Australians. A further 67% felt guilty about staying on top of their emails while on holiday, much higher than other markets. South Africans feel they are also under more pressure to make the most of their holiday by seeing the real culture of a country and connecting with the local people.
They spend significantly less on their holiday and are less likely to take smaller, short breaks, opting instead for one large holiday lasting a week or longer. South Africans are also more likely than other markets to participate in a wide range of activities and experiences, such as attending a festival or sports event.
Interestingly, it is in the area of Social Media that South African travel behaviour really stands out from the rest of the world.
“Our study shows that, more so than their global counterparts, South Africans are heavily reliant on social media for their inspiration on where to go on holiday and also sharing their holiday experience,” says Teresa.
At least 54% of South Africans spend extensive hours on online research and planning, 67% check social media while they’re on holiday and 65% post pictures of their holiday on social media. “This is markedly higher than other markets like the UK and USA,” says Teresa. “It’s also interesting to note that South Africans were more likely than other holidaymakers to post a potential trip on social media to find out what people thought before booking.”
‘Good Travel’ was defined in the study as an opportunity to step away from daily life and pressures, learn, appreciate and experience something new. “Good travel experiences are when people seek out sights that others don’t, switch off and relax, and make a real connection with the local culture. It’s an opportunity to be surprised and challenged and spend time with loved ones in a relaxed environment.
“These opportunities exist, and we see in our study that there’s demand for this type of travel amongst South Africans.”
Content provided by Trafalgar

Trafalgar survey reveals how South Africans travel

ZURICH, Oct 26 (Reuters) &#8211; Swiss luxury group Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA and Chinese group Alibaba are joining forces to target the Chinese retail market, Richemont said on Friday.
The strategic partnership will feature retail offerings of Yoox Net-a-Porter Group S.p.A. (YNAP), the online luxury retailer, to Chinese consumers.
Under the partnership, YNAP and Alibaba will establish a joint venture to launch two mobile apps for the Net-a-Porter and Mr Porter multi-brand, in-season online stores for consumers in China.
(Reporting by Michael Shields; Editing by Maria Sheahan)

What you need to know about Richemont and Alibaba’s strategic partnership

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South African media and e-commerce giant Naspers said on Friday it would invest 4.6 billion rand ($315 million) over the next three years in its technology businesses and to fund technology start-ups.
Naspers said in a statement ahead of an investment summit called by President Cyril Ramaphosa it would allocate 3.2 billion rand to developing its existing technology businesses including the OLX Group, Takealot, and Mr D Food. Naspers said 1.4 billion rand would be used to fund technology start-ups.
($1 = 14.5850 rand)
Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; Editing by James Macharia

This South African media giant plans to invest $315 million in technology expansion

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Moody’s said on Friday that a weaker fiscal outlook in South Africa’s medium-term budget policy statement issued this week was a credit negative, sending the rand weaker.
“The government’s revised budget policy statement projects larger fiscal deficits and higher government debt, amid slower growth, a weaker rand and higher interest rates than expected in February, a credit negative,” Moody’s said in a research note.
Moody’s is the last of the top three agencies to still rate the country investment grade.
Reporting by James Macharia; Editing by Robin Pomeroy

Moody’s says weaker fiscal outlook highlighted in SA’s mini budget a credit negative

By François Conradie, Head of Research at NKC African Economics
On Wednesday, October 24, Mouad Bouchareb was elected as the new speaker of the National People’s Assembly (APN), the lower house of Parliament.
He was elected almost unanimously (320 votes for, one abstention), but that was because all opposition deputies were boycotting the vote, so only deputies from the ruling coalition were present in the chamber.
The opposition MPs are against Mr Bouchareb’s election because his predecessor, Said Bouhadja, was removed unconstitutionally earlier in the month, when the ruling coalition caucus declared the position vacant although the constitution does not provide for any procedure of this kind.
The constitution stipulates that “the president [speaker] of the APN is elected for the duration of the legislature”.
There was some drama later as MPs from the caucus physically locked the chamber door to prevent Mr Bouhadja from doing his job.
The ruling coalition is made up of four parties: the National Liberation Front (FLN) of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the National Democratic Rally (RND) of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, the Algerian Popular Movement (MPA) and Taj, the party of former minister Amar Ghoul. Mr Bouchareb was until now the chief whip of the FLN caucus.
On Wednesday, when Mr Bouchareb was voted in, one of these MPs stated that Mr Bouteflika approved of the change.
There has been some media comment focusing on Mr Bouchareb’s youth: he is 47, and the ruling coalition is trying to portray his investiture as some sort of renewal. But Mr Bouhadja was removed, and Mr Bouchareb picked in his stead, so that the ruling coalition could have tighter control of the legislature.
This may become relevant as the process carries on to get Mr Bouteflika re-elected in April (although he has not yet announced his candidacy), in case the people trying to make that happen need a pliant speaker.
The blatant unconstitutionality of the coalition’s move is also worth noting.

OpEd: Algeria’s ruling coalition imposes a new speaker

GENEVA (Reuters) &#8211; An Ebola outbreak that ravaged Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia in 2014 cost economies an estimated $53 billion, according to a study in this month’s Journal of Infectious Diseases.
The study aimed to combine the direct economic burden and the indirect social impact to generate a comprehensive cost of the outbreak, which was the worst in the world.
The outbreak ran from 2013 to 2016 and killed at least 11,300 people, more than all other known Ebola outbreaks combined. The vast majority of cases were in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
The report’s authors, Caroline Huber, Lyn Finelli and Warren Stevens, put the economic costs at $14 billion and said the human cost was even greater, based on the people affected and a dollar figure that reflects the value of each human life.
The total is far higher than previous estimates. In October 2014, the World Bank said the Ebola epidemic could cost $32.6 billion by the end of 2015 in a worst case scenario, but by November 2014 it dialled back that forecast to $3-4 billion. In 2016 the World Bank estimate of economic loss was $2.8 billion.
The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cost an estimated $40 billion, while the 2015-2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Americas was estimated to have caused $20 billion in social costs, the new study said.
But a repeat of the 1918 influenza pandemic could cost an annual 700,000 lives and $490 billion, the authors said, citing research published in 2016.
The new Ebola study factored in the impact on healthworkers, long-term conditions suffered by 17,000 Ebola survivors, and costs of treatment, infection control, screening and deployment of personnel beyond West Africa.
The biggest cost not previously accounted for was deaths from other diseases, as Ebola tied up healthcare resources and hospital admissions fell dramatically, adding $18.8 billion to the total bill.
During the outbreak there were 10,623 additional deaths from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, with 3.5 million additional untreated malaria cases.
Measles caused 2,000-16,000 extra deaths as 1 million children missed being vaccinated for measles, and 600,000-700,000 missed other vaccines.
But the authors added that they had limited information on the cost of deploying international health staff and military personnel, and they were obliged to place a value on human life, a widely accepted economic measurement.
Although the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) in North America and Europe is estimated at $7 million-9 million, the authors said, they took a figure from the only study in a West African context, with a VSL of $577,000 in Sierra Leone.
Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg

How the Ebola outbreak in West Africa cost economies $53 billion

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia’s parliament approved Sahle-Work Zewde as the country’s new president, the first woman to hold the post.
Sahle-Work is at present U.N. under secretary general and special representative of the secretary general to the African Union. She replaces Mulatu Teshome Wirtu, who tendered his resignation to parliament earlier on Wednesday.
Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Robin Pomeroy

Sahle-Work Zewde becomes Ethiopia’s first female president, what you need to know…

By Monique Vanek
In the forward to Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) it warns that South Africa finds itself at a crossroads and highlights the difficult economic and fiscal choices confronting government over the next several years. These are the key takeaways:
Economic
• The consolidated budget deficit narrows from 4.2% in 2019/20 to 4% in 2021/22. 
• Gross debt is expected to stabilise at 59.6% of GDP in 2023/24. 
• GDP growth revised downwards to 0.7 from 1.5% in 2018 following a recession in the first half of the year. 
• GDP growth is expected to recover gradually to 2.3% by 2021 
• Global economy expected to continue growing at 3.7% 
• Tax revenue has been revised down by R27.4 billion in 2018/19, R24.7 billion in 2019/20 and R33 billion in 2020/21 relative to the 2018 Budget. This mainly reflects higher-than-expected VAT refunds. 
• In 2017/18, for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis, tax revenue growth did not exceed GDP growth. 
• The cost of servicing government debt is expected to exceed 2018 Budget estimates by R1 billion in 2018/19, R4.9 billion in 2019/20 and R7.9 billion in 2020/21. This reflects a larger main budget deficit, currency depreciation and higher interest rates. An estimated 15.1 per cent of main budget revenue will be used to service debt in 2021/22 compared with 13.9 per cent in 2018/19. 
• Main budget revenue is projected to increase from 25.7% of GDP in 2018/19 to 26% of GDP in 2021/22. Main budget expenditure is estimated to remain stable at 30.2% of GDP over the medium term
Where the money will go
• The Medium-term expenditure framework commits public resources of R5.9trn over the next three years. Of this amount: 
&#8211; R3.3trn or 56.2% t will be allocated to education, health, the provision of water and electricity services, and social grants. 
&#8211; 
• Government is proposing reprioritisation of R32.4bn over the next three years. Of this amount: 
&#8211; R15.9bn goes towards faster-spending infrastructure programmes. 
&#8211; R16.5bn will be allocated to various programmes, including recapitalising the South African Revenue Service (SARS), a minimum wage for community health workers, critical posts and goods and services in health, and streamlining the management of the justice system. 
&#8211; In addition, changes to grant structures amounting to R14.7 billion will promote upgrading of informal settlements in partnership with communities. 
&#8211; Housing subsidies amounting to R1 billion will be centralised to better support middle- and lower-income home buyers. 
• In the current year, R1.7 billion is added to infrastructure spending (including funding for fast-spending school building programmes) 
• R3.4 billion is allocated to drought relief, mostly to upgrade water infrastructure aside funding for this purpose. 
• R3.4 billion is allocated in 2018/19 to provide water, improve infrastructure and offset the economic costs of drought. Funding is also provided for the South African Isotope Facility at iThemba Labs and, following approval through the Budget Facility for Infrastructure, for the MyCiti Phase 2A bus programme in the City of Cape Town. 
• R800 million added to the school infrastructure backlogs grant to complete approved projects. 
• R3.4 billion is allocated to the education infrastructure grant. Funds are also allocated to the same grant to continue repairing infrastructure damaged by storms and floods in KwaZulu-Natal in 2017. 
• The Department of Women has developed a framework to provide free sanitary towels to learners from low-income households. The project rollout is funded through the provincial equitable share. 
• Local government equitable share, which finances free basic services to low-income households and some administrative costs for municipalities, is expected to grow by9.4 per cent per year to R82.2 billion by 2021/22. 
• Over the medium term, public transport expenditure is expected to increase to R101.1 billion as integrated public transport networks are built and operated in 13 cities.
State owned entities
• South African Airways will receive R5 billion through a special appropriation bill to settle debt redeeming between now and March 2019. This will help to prevent a call on the airline’s outstanding debt of R16.4 billion, which is guaranteed 
• R1.2 billion is allocated to South African Express Airways. 
• The South African Post Office receives R2.9 billion to reduce debt levels
National Health Insurance
• R166 million added to the national health insurance (NHI) indirect grant (health facility revitalisation) component to procure medical equipment and to design a new academic hospital in Limpopo. 
• R546 million reprioritised within the NHI indirect grant to address the critical shortage of medical professionals in the health sector, and to procure beds and linen for health facilities.
Tax changes
• In 2019 annual adjustments to personal income tax brackets, levies and excise duties in line with inflation are expected. 
• White bread flour, cake flour and sanitary pads will be zero-rated from 1 April 2019.
Students
• The Department of Higher Education and Training is developing a funding framework to clarify students’ food, book, transport and accommodation allowances, and the obligations required of bursary students during and after their studies. 
• Funds recommended through the Budget Facility for Infrastructure, and from educational institutions and the department, will support the Student Housing Infrastructure Programme. Over the next 10 years, it will provide 300 000 new beds at universities, and technical and vocational colleges. 
• Over the medium term, an estimated R61.5 billion in revenue from the skills development levy will continue to expand participation in learnerships, internships and skills development programmes.
Land reform
• Government is working with the Land Bank to accelerate land reform and maintain the productive use of transferred land. 
• Under the Land Reform Programme, government will provide 30-year leases, enabling the Land Bank to extend loans to emerging farmers. 
• The Land Bank will use a combination of loans and grants to increase production through the Black Producers Commercialisation Programme. Funding from the comprehensive agricultural support programme grant will be reprioritised to produce foot-and-mouth disease vaccines.

SA’s #MTBPS2018: Key takeaways

By Monique Vanek
The public servants wage bill remains the single largest component of expenditure in the Medium Term Policy Framework, but with elections approaching in 2019 the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) provided no concrete plans to address this, only stating that government is working on an approach to manage these pressures over the medium term.
According to the MTBPS, public servants compensation, accounts for 34.7 per cent of consolidated expenditure, and forms the major driver of spending pressures. The MTBPS highlights that “it is one of the fastest-growing items in the budget, increasing at an average of 11.2 per cent a year”.
It adds that “the 2018 public-service wage agreement (see box) exceeded budgeted baselines by about R30.2 billion through 2020/21. National and provincial departments are expected to absorb these costs within their R1.8 trillion compensation baselines over the same period.”
The MTBPS also states that “over the long term, government and trade unions need to agree on an approach that ensures fair remuneration and a sustainable wage bill”. 
An annexure to the MTBPS deflects that issue of the amount of public servants to earnings growth, stating that “earnings growth, rather than headcount, has been the major driver of the public-service wage bill over the past decade”.
The annexure says an analysis of compensation spending since 2006/07 reveals the following trends:
• The main driver of increased spending is large increases in wages and other employee benefits, rather than increases in employment. 
• The increase in average real wages is partly explained by above-inflation agreements reached between government and unions, but wage progression and promotion policies account for a considerable proportion of the rise. 
• Wages have increased most rapidly in the lowest ranks of the public service, compressing wage distribution. 
• Overall, the number of public servants has increased since 2006/07. Employment peaked in 2012/13, after which personnel numbers have fallen by just over 1 per cent. This decline is insufficient to contain real spending growth due to continued growth in real wages. 
• There is a significant amount of turnover in the public service, with as many as 6 per cent of personnel leaving in a given year.

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This South African media giant plans to invest $315 million in technology expansion

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OpEd: Algeria’s ruling coalition imposes a new speaker

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