One of the major problems facing South Africa is anti-immigrant violence. The seriousness of this problem was highlighted in a recent <a href="http://hcwg.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Report-Hate-Bias-Crimes-Monitoring-Form-Project-SCREEN.pdf">report on hate crime</a> in the country.
These kinds of hate crime discourage long-term integration of international migrants. It also hampers the country’s ability to attract migrants with the skills it needs to drive development and economic growth.
Anti-immigrant violence also sours the country’s relationship with the rest of the continent. For example, relations between South Africa and Nigeria, one of the region’s largest economies, have deteriorated because of recent <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/ramaphosa-tries-to-fix-sa-nigeria-relations-as-xenophobia-claims-emerge-15973772">attacks on Nigerians</a>.
Since the early 1990s, state officials, legislators and policymakers in South Africa have debated the <a href="http://samponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Acrobat66.pdf">causes of anti-immigrant violence</a>. There are many different opinions on what causes such hostility. Some politicians, including former president Jacob Zuma, even suggested that the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/28/south-africa-is-not-a-xenophobic-nation-a-letter-from-jacob-zuma">problem doesn’t exist</a>.
A new <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/media-briefs/general/attacking-foreigners-in-sa">study</a> by the Human Sciences Research Council canvased the views of ordinary South Africans on what lies behind anti-immigrant sentiments, including violence. Knowing how the public views this important question is vital to understanding which mechanisms would be most acceptable to prevent xenophobic violence.
Overall, 71% of the respondents said that the threat posed by immigrants from outside South Africa was the main reason for the violence. A third of people in the survey attributed violence against immigrants to the fact that foreigners would take jobs away from South Africans and that they were involved in unfair business practices attributed.
Only a small minority (5%) described violence against foreigners as irrational, illogical or unknowable. An even smaller portion (2%) rejected the premise of the question and said that attacks against foreigners were “just the work of criminals”.
<h2>The survey and findings</h2>
Using public opinion data, the study looked at which explanations for anti-immigrant violence are most popular among the country’s adults.
Public opinion data from the <a href="http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/departments/sasas">South African Social Attitudes Survey 2017</a> was used for the study. The repeated cross-sectional survey series is specially designed to be nationally representative of all persons aged 16 years and older in the country. Survey teams visited households in all nine provinces and the sample size was 3,098.
Respondents were asked: “There are many opinions about why people take violent action against foreigners living in South Africa. Please tell me the main reason why you think this happens”. This open-ended question allowed people to answer in their own words, thus encouraging them to give an unbiased answer.
Almost every respondent was able to offer an explanation for why people attack foreigners. About a third (30%) of the general public said that the violence was caused by foreigners stealing jobs from hardworking South Africans. Other economic causes cited were the alleged unfair business practices of foreign-owned small businesses and that immigrants used up resources (such as housing).
<figure class="align-center "><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230759/original/file-20180806-191035-11rrgvz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
The criminal threat posed by international immigrants was the second most frequently mentioned cause of anti-immigrant violence. Almost a third (30%) said that communities were responding to the criminal activities of the migrants. Many people attributed the violence to foreigners’ involvement in drug trafficking.
About 5% of the respondents identified other threats they claimed foreigners posed as the main reason for the attacks. These included the sexual exploitation of women as well as a general sense that immigrants wanted to “take over the country”.
Looking at the minority that named a non-threat explanation for attacks on foreigners living in South Africa, the study found that few identified individual prejudice or misinformation about international migrants as primary reasons for the violence.
Remarkably, the most frequently mentioned non-threat explanation for violence was jealousy. About 10% of the respondents said that envy of the success or ingenuity of foreigners was the main driver of this kind of hate crime. People who responded in this way tended to tell fieldworkers that South Africans were lazy when compared to migrants.
<h2>Combating xenophobic violence</h2>
From the responses, it’s apparent that most of the reasons provided by the general population are about the alleged harmful conduct of international migrants. There is, however, no evidence to support the belief that South Africa’s migrant community is a major cause of crime or <a href="https://www.groundup.org.za/article/do-immigrants-steal-jobs-south-africa-what-data-tell-us/">unemployment</a> in the country. Indeed, as former president Zuma has <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1630JW">acknowledged</a>,
<blockquote>(many in the migrant community) contribute to the economy of the country positively.</blockquote>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101053/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Government and anti-xenophobia activists need to encourage ordinary people to think like this, and to view hate crimes against foreigners differently. Public support will help anti-xenophobia advocates end these kinds of hate crime. Only when South Africans are able to understand the root causes of anti-immigrant violence can the problem be overcome.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-gordon-360887">Steven Gordon</a>, ‎Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/human-sciences-research-council-2144">Human Sciences Research Council</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fears-about-jobs-drive-anti-migrant-sentiment-in-south-africa-101053">original article</a>.

How job uncertainty in South Africa is driving anti-migrant attitudes

By Clare Church, Research Officer with International Institute for Sustainable Development.
The gold in our watches, the diamonds in our rings, the tin in our smartphones – all have been classified as conflict minerals, due to their role in funding armed groups and incentivizing human rights abuses in fragile states.
But what about the metals and minerals found in our solar panels, wind turbines, or electric vehicles?
Many of the minerals central to green energy technologies – including cobalt, rare earths and lithium – are found in high concentrations in states struggling with fragility, weak governance, and corruption. Increased demand for these minerals in order to meet the needs of the low carbon economy has already placed intense pressure on some mining sites, aggravating local grievances and fueling violence.
As demand for green energy technologies continues to surge, it is essential that the minerals used to develop and deploy these technologies are sourced in a way that supports peace and sustainable development. Failing to do so runs the risk of dirtying the supply chains of the clean energy systems vital to the low-carbon transition.
Cobalt, for example, is critical to the development of electric vehicles and energy storage technologies, and is found in three out of the four major lithium-ion batteries on the market. More than 56 per cent of cobalt reserves, however, are found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – a country plagued with chronic violence and instability.
DRC is one of the world’s most resource-rich nations. But, as has been well documented, this wealth that has yet to translate into longer-term, sustainable development gains for its population. The country hosts some of the world’s largest reserves of tin, tungsten, tantalum, and gold (3TG), which are among the most notorious conflict minerals. When mined in a context of fragility and corruption, the exploitation of these minerals has funded the continued activities of armed groups at a cost of appalling human suffering, including sexual violence, child labour, and death.
The mining of cobalt in the DRC has already been tied to some of the same exploitative and violent practices seen in the mining of 3TG. In 2016, Amnesty International found that some cobalt miners in the country were exposed to harmful chemicals, lacked protective equipment, were subject to violence, and were victims of extortion by state officials. The report also found that some cobalt operations in the south of the country employed children for less than $2 per day.
Unlike 3TG however, cobalt is not explicitly included in effective legislation concerning conflict minerals, most notably the US’ Dodd-Frank Act Section 1502 and the upcoming EU Conflict Mineral Regulation.
Lithium – a mineral found in electric vehicles and energy storage technologies – is also notably absent from global conflict mineral conversations. About 60 per cent of the world’s lithium reserves are found in the ‘Lithium Triangle’: the border region between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia. Lithium mining in this region, however, requires massive amounts of water – a major source of grievance for surrounding communities in an already water-stressed region. Nearby, Brazil is currently the world’s seventh largest producer of Lithium and has more reserves than production, making expectations long-term there for the industry.
Just south of San Pedro de Atacama in Chile, a number of public demonstrations have broken out in opposition to proposed extensions of existing mining operations. Similar grievances tied to water usage have also been expressed near Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia and in the province of Jujuy, Argentina.
Lithium demand is only expected to accelerate. Some estimates suggest that demand will surpass global supply by 2023 – driving prices to an unprecedent level. A failure to engage local communities in the responsible extraction of lithium could exacerbate already heated tensions and threaten the global supply chains of critical green energy technologies.
Beyond cobalt and lithium, there are a number of other minerals that are crucial to the development of solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies. These include base metals like copper, nickel, and iron; precious metals like silver and tellurium; and rare earths. All are found in high concentrations in states struggling with fragility and corruption.
Approximately 28 per cent of bauxite and alumina reserves– required for all listed green energy technologies – are found, for example, in very fragile states, as defined by the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index. Similarly, almost 100 per cent of chromium and graphite reserves – critical for wind technologies and energy storage – are found in states with mid to high levels of corruption, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
Mineral recycling and substitution have the potential to relieve some of this pressure on extraction operations in resource-rich fragile states. However, most of the minerals in question continue to have poor end of life collection and recycling rates. It is unclear if these processes will sufficiently develop in time to help meet the predicted, growing demand for these minerals.
Progress has been made in curbing the illegal flow of conflict minerals like diamonds, gold, and tin. It is now imperative that civil society groups, the private sector, and governments work together to build off of these successes and apply their lessons togreen energy supply chains. This will include stronger efforts to empower local communities, ensure conflict-free supply chains, and promote transparent and accountable mining practices. Only then will the transition to a low-carbon economy be truly green, clean, and conflict-free.

OpEd: How metals and minerals play a role in funding armed groups in Africa

London, 15 August 2018 &#8212; The pace of South Africa&#8217;s fiscal consolidation will be slower than government forecasts as weaker than expected economic growth and a rising public sector wage bill act as fiscal headwinds, Moody&#8217;s Investors Service said a report today. Despite the slower pace of fiscal consolidation, medium-term deficit targets remain within reach and, if met, will support a stabilization of debt levels and reinforce Moody&#8217;s assessment of the sovereign&#8217;s fiscal and institutional strengths.
The report, &#8220;Government of South Africa: Fiscal slippages likely this year, but medium-term targets remain within reach&#8221;, is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody&#8217;s subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
&#8220;We expect a slower pace fiscal consolidation than the Government of South Africa is forecasting,&#8221; said Lucie Villa, a Moody&#8217;s Vice President &#8212; Senior Credit Officer and co-author of the report. &#8220;Growth this year is expected to be lower than the government&#8217;s own estimates, weighing on tax revenues, while the public sector wage agreement in June also brings extra, unbudgeted costs.&#8221;
Moody&#8217;s expects a fiscal deficit of around 4.0% of GDP in 2018-19, implying a 0.4 percentage point of GDP shortfall from government targets. However, Moody&#8217;s expects the government to hit its 3.5% fiscal deficit target by 2020-21, with debt likely to stabilize at around 56% of GDP.
Moody&#8217;s expects that near-term fiscal adjustments will be made on the spending side based on the government&#8217;s record of operating within spending ceilings and undershooting revenue targets.
Improved tax collection led by the South African Revenue Service will allow revenue to take more prominence in the longer term fiscal consolidation path.
Rising interest costs in the context of investors taking a more risk averse stance towards emerging markets are a main risk to Moody&#8217;s fiscal forecasts, together with potential support to state-owned-enterprises.

South African rand dives as Moody’s warns on fiscal deficit, what you need to know…

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s economic growth this year will be “much lower” than initial expectations, the central bank said in a presentation to parliament on Wednesday, calling any recovery “weak and choppy”.
The South African Reserve Bank added that fixed investment was not expected to pick up meaningfully this year, while inflation risks remained on the upside.
Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Writing by Alexander Winning; Editing by Joe Brock

Central bank expects South Africa’s 2018 growth to be “much lower” than initial forecasts, here’s why

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228795/original/file-20180723-189338-l42zjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20180723 189338 l42zjg.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>Space law is a growing and important discipline. 
piick/Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julia-selman-ayetey-303578">Julia Selman Ayetey</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/mcgill-university-827">McGill University</a>
Rapid advances in space technology mean that space is no longer simply a stargazer’s paradise.
The <a href="http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/space-on-earth/space-economy/">socio-economic benefits</a> possible from the use of space technology and research are endless. For instance, satellite imagery can be used for agricultural purposes, such as helping to predict food shortages and surplus harvests. It can also be employed to forecast and monitor natural disasters like flooding, earthquakes and wildfires. <a href="http://www.who.int/goe/publications/goe_telemedicine_2010.pdf">Telemedicine</a> platforms, which also rely on satellites beaming from space, can greatly enhance the provision of health services in remote areas.
African countries are becoming increasingly aware of these and other possibilities. According to Euroconsult, the space budgets of just five African states amounted to over <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964613000593#tbl1">USD$900 million between 2009-2012</a> and the continent’s evolving space sector is reportedly worth <a href="https://spacegeneration.org/regions/africa">USD$400 billion</a> today.
In 2014 Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa combined spent more <a href="https://www.africaportal.org/features/making-case-african-investment-space-programmes/">than USD$140 million</a> on non-military space programmes. Others expanding their space agenda include Angola, Egypt, <a href="https://africanbusinessmagazine.com/region/east-africa/ethiopia-enters-space-age/">Ethiopia</a> and Kenya.
Ghana is trying to catch up. The <a href="http://gsstc.gov.gh/">Ghana Space Science &amp; Technology Institute</a> has been established to train specialists in these fields and to convert space research into commercial applications. The government has made a <a href="https://www.businessghana.com/site/news/general/162920/Ghana-bids-to-host-African-Union-Space-Agency">bid to host</a> the African Union’s planned Space Agency. It’s also a participant in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghana-is-boosting-africas-ascent-to-astronomical-heights-82849">Square Kilometre Array</a> (SKA) radio telescope project.
A notable accomplishment came in July 2017 when, as part of the satellite <a href="http://birds1.birds-project.com">Bird Project</a>, three engineering students from All Nations University, built and successfully launched Ghana’s first satellite, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40538471">GhanaSat-1</a>, from Florida’s Kennedy Space Station.
But if the West African nation is to fully harness the benefits of space technology and create a lucrative space sector – whether in a niche or wide-ranging market – it will need to put proper policies and structures in place. It will also need space legislation and regulations.
<h2>National space laws</h2>
In setting out space legislation, Ghana would be following international precedent. More than 25 countries have enacted such laws. The space powers Russia and the US are among them, but so are smaller states like Argentina, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Iran.
Closer to home, <a href="https://www.egyptindependent.com/sisi-passes-law-establishing-egyptian-space-agency/">Egypt</a>, Nigeria and <a href="http://www.sacsa.gov.za">South Africa</a> already have space laws. Other nations on the continent will undoubtedly follow suit.
A national space law would ensure that space activities launched within Ghana’s jurisdiction – whether on land, ships or aircraft – and perhaps even abroad by its nationals or registered companies are appropriately regulated.
Such laws may govern a host of space-related ventures. These include launches; remote sensing and space data protection; aeronautics; rocket and satellite development, space tourism and space mining.
Of course, the complexity of space activities combined with the rapid pace at which technology develops means that national space laws are <a href="https://www.jurist.org/commentary/2017/12/selman-ayetey-uk-space-legislation/">unlikely to cover</a> every eventuality. They do, however, provide a degree of certainty for the public, investors and courts should disputes arise.
National laws also facilitate compliance with global obligations. Article 6 of the <a href="http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Outer Space Treaty</a>, for example, requires all space activities to be authorised and continually supervised by the state. National laws which demand licensing of space activities foster adherence to the treaty.
Article 7 makes states liable for damage caused by space objects under its jurisdiction, including those belonging to private commercial entities. A Space Act can be vital in limiting a state’s liability through provisions on indemnities.
Ghana has signed the Outer Space Treaty. The next step will be for the government to ratify it, and then to establish a legislative framework for space activities.
<h2>Making Ghana’s space law</h2>
About half a decade ago the International Law Association published the <a href="http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/limited/c2/AC105_C2_2013_CRP06E.pdf">Sofia Guidelines for a Model Law for National Space Legislation</a>. Shortly afterwards the United Nations General Assembly passed <a href="http://digitallibrary.un.org/record/763550/files/A_RES_68_74-EN.pdf">a resolution</a> entitled “Recommendations on national legislation relevant to the peaceful exploration and use of outer space”. These documents contain elements deemed essential for any country’s space law.
Like other <a href="https://tem.fi/en/artikkeli/-/asset_publisher/avaruuslain-rakennuspalikat">countries</a> before it, Ghana can refer to the model law and UN recommendations when drafting its space law. This can then be adapted to suit the nation’s particular needs.
The drafting of such legislation requires a careful balancing act, taking various stakeholders’ interests into account and honouring Ghana’s international obligations.
If laws are too restrictive, investors will take their money elsewhere. For instance, a country whose licensing scheme for private commercial space companies is perceived as onerous will be prone to losing foreign investment to a country whose space laws are viewed as more favourable. On the other hand, safety, environmental concerns and the ability to seek damages for harm to persons or property may be compromised by laws which are too liberal.
<h2>Space law awareness</h2>
The <a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/newsevents/workingdocuments/33178-wd-african_space_policy_-_st20444_e_original.pdf">African Union</a> has identified the need to develop the human capital necessary to expand the African space market.
Discussions on space capacity-building have tended to focus on the value of aerospace engineers, astrophysicists, and other technical experts. All these professionals are indeed crucial to create a space sector.
But the need for policy advisers, government lawyers and space entrepreneurs to be aware of the rights and obligations arising out of both national and international space law has often been overlooked.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100200/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />In an effort to contribute to this aspect of the requisite human resources, Ghana could look at introducing space law courses at its universities. At least three other institutions on the continent, Kenya’s <a href="http://law-school.uonbi.ac.ke//uon_degrees_details/1391">University of Nairobi</a>, Niger Delta University in Nigeria and the <a href="https://www.up.ac.za/en/programmes/StudyLevel/13/Faculty/F6/mod/postgrad/year/2019">University of Pretoria</a> in South Africa, have already done this.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/julia-selman-ayetey-303578">Julia Selman Ayetey</a>, Doctoral Candidate, Institute of Air &amp; Space Law, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/mcgill-university-827">McGill University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghana-is-looking-to-outer-space-it-needs-the-law-to-match-100200">original article</a>.

Why Ghana’s space law can’t be too restrictive as country looks to expand space agenda

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s Gold Fields said on Tuesday it plans to slash costs at its struggling South Deep mine, including cutting 1,100 jobs, or around 30 percent of its workforce.
South Deep, the company’s last South African asset, has faced operational obstacles in a tough geological setting 3 km (2 miles) below the surface. The mine made a loss of 337.6 million rand ($27 million) in 2017.
Gold Fields shares opened 3 percent lower at 47 rand per share.
The bullion producer, which has invested 32 billion rand in the operation since acquiring it in 2006, said it could no longer sustain losses at the mine, which has missed several production targets despite significant modernisation.
“The key challenge has been the difficulty in transitioning the mine from one run with a conventional mining mindset and practices to mining with a modern, bulk, mechanised mining approach,” Gold Fields said in a trading update.
The firm also said it expects headline earnings per share for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to be unchanged at $0.08 per share compared with the previous reporting period.
Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; Editing by Joe Brock

What you need to know about South Africa’s Gold Fields’ plan to cut over 1,100 jobs at South Deep mine

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230567/original/file-20180803-41351-16fzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20180803 41351 16fzoo.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>Biobanks can help scientists retain quality samples for future experiments. 
Microgen/Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dominique-anderson-517434">Dominique Anderson</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alan-christoffels-484169">Alan Christoffels</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carmen-swanepoel-517348">Carmen Swanepoel</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/stellenbosch-university-1439">Stellenbosch University</a>
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/biobanks">Biobanks</a> are repositories which receive, store, process and disseminate specimens. These include DNA derived from humans and animals; bacterial strains; and environmental samples like plants and soil. Biobanks also provide the vital infrastructure for research to support scientific advancement and innovation.
In the developed world, biobanks are well established and generally well funded and supported. There are also biobanks in the developing world like regions in Africa, most notably in South Africa and Nigeria – but the technology is really still in its infancy. Simple issues like internet connectivity, access to reliable water and electricity supply, which are all necessary to run biobanks, are common.
Yet it’s in the developing world that biobanks could be especially powerful tools. For example, having access to the rich genetic diversity across Africa would allow researchers to understand disease, develop better diagnostics and treatments, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/2018/07/27/cancer-cure-genome-cancer-treatment-africa-genetic-charles-rotimi-dna-human-1024630.html">medicines and vaccines</a>, geared toward the continent’s population.
Crucially, they can also improve scientists’ ability to replicate results and experiments, a process known as <a href="http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/8/341/341ps12.full">reproducibility</a>. This is very important because being able to reproduce research verifies results and means it can be trusted. Biobanks have high quality assurance and control measures in place, making them safe, reliable spaces to store material for repeated testing that could lead to trustworthy science that saves lives.
This is why low and middle income countries, like those in Africa, should prioritise setting up biobanks despite the high cost and other challenges.
<h2>A reproducibility crisis</h2>
A <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-on-reproducibility-1.19970">recent study</a> has shown that, across the world, scientists’ ability to reproduce research is staggeringly low. More than 70% of the 1500 scientific participants in the study could not replicate other scientists’ experiments. And half were unable to replicate their own experiments.
This costs a huge amount of money. In the US alone, the estimated financial burden of not being able to replicate research translates to approximately <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002165">$28 billion per year</a> that’s being spent on life science research which cannot be replicated.
Why don’t researchers rigorously investigate the reproducibility of experimental works before releasing the findings? There are a few reasons.
Firstly, research costs money; costs for any lab are already high and staff may not want to spend more than they believe is necessary.
Secondly, reproducing experiments takes time – and when scientists are developing novel therapies for diseases, for instance, time can cost lives.
The study also identified study design, biological samples, laboratory protocols, and data analysis and reporting as issues. So it stands to reason that implementing standard best practices and adhering to them could partially ease <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid-on-reproducibility-1.19970">the crisis</a>.
That’s where biobanks come in.
<h2>Quality assurance</h2>
Most biobanks, whether small or large, have high quality assurance and control measures in place. Without this, they won’t generate the trust needed to function well. They ensure that sample transportation, processing, storage and analysis are done according to standard methods. They manage risk to ensure the biospecimens they store for different researchers or teams are viable and retain their quality.
Biobanks which follow best practice guidelines can be mediators for reproducible scientific research as they ensure that protocols are applied in a standardised, harmonised way.
This means that researchers who use a biobank can have some level of comfort that, at a bare minimum, any biological sample used in an experiment is consistent and controlled. For example, biobanks that use <a href="https://blog.capterra.com/what-is-a-laboratory-information-management-system/">Laboratory Information Management System</a> software can track and log a sample’s life cycle to ensure its quality hasn’t been compromised. For example, <a href="https://www.baobablims.org">Baobab LIMS</a> was developed at the University of the Western Cape as a management system for human biobanks.
Sample quality is critical in research, as it will influence later analysis. Biobanks are also an important tool for smaller laboratories that don’t have the finances to get international accreditation, or don’t have the right equipment for analysing specific samples.
<h2>Benefits outweigh costs</h2>
It may seem like a no-brainer to establish biobanks everywhere, given all the benefits they offer.
But there are some barriers to this happening in the developing world. Cost is one. Biobanks are generally non-profit. Non-commercial medical biobanks cannot sell specimens, as this would equate to trade in human tissue and is unethical. So biobanks’ fee structure is aimed entirely at cost-recovery.
There’s also a lack of highly skilled and trained personnel. There are some international certificates and courses specifically for biobanking, offered in <a href="http://www.ctrnet.ca/education/education_program">North America</a> and <a href="https://wwwfr.uni.lu/formations/fstc/certificate_principles_of_biobanking">Europe</a> but for the most part, skilled scientists could be trained to become proficient and staff biobanks.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100035/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />These issues should be dealt with by policy makers, governments and science stakeholders. The benefits of establishing more biobanks clearly outweigh the costs – especially in the face of the ever increasing direct and indirect cost of research that cannot be reproduced and the growing need to preserve Africa’s rich genomic resources.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dominique-anderson-517434">Dominique Anderson</a>, Postdoctoral researcher in Metagenomics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alan-christoffels-484169">Alan Christoffels</a>, DST/NRF Research Chair in Bioinformatics and Public Health Genomics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-western-cape-1018">University of the Western Cape</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carmen-swanepoel-517348">Carmen Swanepoel</a>, Principal Medical Scientist within the Division of Haematopathology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/stellenbosch-university-1439">Stellenbosch University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-biobanks-can-help-improve-the-integrity-of-scientific-research-100035">original article</a>.

Here’s how biobanks can help improve scientists’ ability to replicate results and experiments

KINSHASA (Reuters) &#8211; Congo’s President Joseph Kabila will not stand in the election scheduled for December, a spokesman said, finally agreeing to obey a two-term limit but picking a hard-core loyalist under European Union sanctions to stand instead.
The announcement on Wednesday by spokesman Lambert Mende that former interior minister Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary would represent Kabila’s ruling coalition in the Dec. 23 vote came just hours before the deadline to register candidates.
“We are all going to align behind (him),” Mende said.
Kabila was due to step down in 2016 at the end of his constitutional mandate, but the election to replace him was repeatedly delayed. That sparked protests in which the security forces killed dozens of people, and stoked militia violence in Democratic Republic of Congo’s volatile east.
Kabila had come under strong pressure from regional allies such as Angola as well as the United States and EU to stand down.
The selection of Ramazani, 57, is, however, a defiant move. He is under EU sanctions for alleged human rights abuses, including deadly crackdowns by security forces on protesters.
Kabila’s choice of a die-hard loyalist suggests that the president, who came to power after his father’s assassination in 2001, intends to remain closely involved in national politics. 
A Ramazani victory could lead to a continuation of Kabila’s policies, including a tough line on the mining sector, where foreign investors hope the government will walk back steep tax hikes approved earlier this year.
Congo is Africa’s top producer of copper and the world’s leading miner of cobalt, which is prized for its use in batteries for electric cars and other electronics.
KABILA PULLS THE STRINGS? 
Kabila will remain at the head of his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) and has installed loyalists across the federal bureaucracy, including in the courts and in the military.
But the announcement that he will not run again will ease fears in the region and beyond that a Kabila candidacy would drag the country back into the civil wars of the turn of the century in which millions died, mostly from hunger and disease.
“What matters for the moment is that the constitution, whether willingly or not, has been respected,” said Senator Jacques Ndjoli of the opposition MLC party of former vice president and presidential candidate Jean-Pierre Bemba.
“Despite the multiple attempts to circumvent the constitution, President Kabila finally understood that the supreme law applies to everyone.”
The election should now herald Congo’s first democratic transition of power following decades marked by authoritarian rule, coups and deadly conflict.
Ramazani, a former governor of the eastern province of Maniema, served as interior minister from late 2016 until this February, when he was named permanent secretary of the PPRD.
He is a combative defender of Kabila and oversaw repeated crackdowns on protesters and pro-democracy groups as interior minister, especially in the aftermath of Kabila’s refusal to quit power when his mandate expired in December 2016.
In May last year, the EU slapped a travel ban and asset freeze on him for his involvement in “planning, directing or committing acts that constitute serious human rights violations”.
Several opposition candidates, including Bemba and the president of Congo’s largest opposition party, Felix Tshisekedi, have also registered to run.
They fear the goodwill Kabila could earn from not seeking a new term could make it easier for his coalition to cheat and are concerned about voter rolls they say are faulty and electronic voting machines due to be used for the first time.
His supporters dismiss these concerns.
“Today, Kabila has shown that he is the father of democracy in Congo,” Patrick Nkanga, a PPRD official, told Reuters by telephone.
A nationwide opinion poll last month showed opposition candidates collecting a significant majority of the vote with potential candidates from the ruling coalition trailing far behind.
Ramazani did not receive enough votes to be included in the poll’s results.
Reporting by Amedee Mwarabu; Writing by Aaron Ross; Editing by Tim Cocks and Alison Williams
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

DRC’s Kabila will not run in December elections, here’s what you need to know

<h1></h1>
<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230006/original/file-20180731-136661-xiq3dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=1%2C133%2C664%2C674&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20180731 136661 xiq3dy.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>This sign could be interpreted literally. 
Shutterstock</figcaption></figure>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-breetzke-523227">Gregory Breetzke</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
Over the past few decades there has been a growing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237950620_Homicide_in_Sao_Paulo_Brazil_Assessing_spatial-temporal_and_weather_variations">worldwide interest</a> in examining the relationship <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">between weather and various types of crime</a>. Most research in this area has however produced inconsistent and often paradoxical results. For example, some studies have found <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/44/2/276/562930">no seasonal fluctuations</a> in crime. Others have however found <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">an increase in crimes</a> during either the colder winter months or warmer summer months.
Very little is known, however, about how the magnitude and spatial distribution of criminal activity in South Africa is affected by climatic conditions. So we set out <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">to determine</a> whether there is an association between criminal activity and climate in the country’s capital city, Tshwane.
We were specifically interested in whether the magnitude of crime changes depending on extreme weather conditions, notably temperature and rainfall. In other words: do extremely hot days or high-rainfall days experience higher or lower rates of violent, property or sexual crime?
We also wanted to know whether the spatial distribution of violent, property or sexual crime changes depending on the type of extreme weather event. Simply put, does crime occur in different places on extremely cold days than it does on really hot ones?
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">Our results</a> indicate a strong association between temperature and criminal activity. That is, as the temperature goes up, so too, does crime. There’s a less significant association between rainfall and crime. The spatial distributions of all types of crime are found to differ significantly depending on the type of weather extreme observed.
The results could help law enforcement agencies better understand how weather affects crime patterns in South Africa’s urban areas and develop and implement appropriate crime prevention measures.
<h2>Diving into data</h2>
The notion that there’s a relationship between criminal activity and climate is nothing new. Over a century ago Belgian sociologist and scholar Adolphe Quételet <a href="https://archive.org/details/treatiseonmandev00quet">observed</a> that crimes against people reach a maximum during the warmer summer months, while crimes against property reached a peak during winter.
He <a href="http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780195396607/obo-9780195396607-0130.xml">later developed</a> the temperature-aggression theory, which provides a psychological explanation for the increase in crime during warmer months. It suggests that warmer temperatures will lead to an increase in an individual’s frustration and discomfort levels and so increase the likelihood of aggression. This could in turn result in interpersonal crimes such as assault.
We used data and statistical analysis to find an association – if any – between extreme weather conditions and crime in the nation’s capital, Tshwane. We obtained climate data for the city from the South African Weather Service for a 5-year period from September 2001 to the end of August 2006.
Next, we calculated daily average temperatures before extracting the ten hottest for each year of the five years. That gave us a dataset of 50 days. The process was repeated for low-temperature days, high-rainfall days, no-rainfall days and random-rainfall days.
Then came crime data for the same period. We obtained this from the South African Police Services’ Crime and Information Analysis Centre. The data included the geographical location of each crime; the date and time of day that each crime was committed; and the specific type of crime committed. A total of 1,361,220 crimes were reported in the five-year period across 32 different categories. All crime was then categorised into either violent, sexual or property crimes before we calculated a count of crime per type per day.
Next, we used a recently developed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622809000046">spatial point pattern test</a> to determine whether the spatial distribution of crime on the three types of days – very hot, very cold and rainy – changes. That is, does the spatial patterning of crime in Tshwane change depending on certain rainfall and temperature conditions?
<h2>What we found</h2>
Our findings demonstrate that the amount of violent, sexual and property crime in the city of Tshwane is significantly affected by temperature and, to a lesser extent, rainfall.
The magnitude of violent, sexual and property crime was higher on hot days compared to cold or random temperature days. Violent crimes increased by 50% on hot days compared to very cold days. Sexual crimes increased by 41% and property crime by 12%. Violent and sexual crimes in Tshwane also decreased on high-rainfall days. Surprisingly, property crime was found to increase slightly on heavy rainfall days, though only by 2%.
Second, the spatial distribution of violent and property crime was found to differ on days by temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable change in the way that particularly violent and property crime is spatially distributed in Tshwane depending on the weather conditions. We also found that the distribution of sexual crime did not seem to differ significantly by temperature or rainfall.
More research is needed to confirm these findings and to determine if the results can be generalised to other urban areas in South Africa.
<h2>Applications</h2>
The results of this research have the potential to inform how law enforcement agencies and other relevant stakeholders tackle crime in South Africa.
Our findings can be used to identify communities that are more prone to crime under certain meteorological conditions and allow stakeholders to target these neighbourhoods and plan interventions. It also allows stakeholders to adequately develop and implement suitable intervention practices in similar at-risk neighbourhoods.
For the police and others responsible for specifically addressing long-term solutions to crime, crime pattern analysis can utilise the understanding of how weather events influence crime patterning and provide measures to take appropriate action.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-breetzke-523227">Gregory Breetzke</a>, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-temperatures-rise-so-do-crime-rates-evidence-from-south-africa-100850">original article</a>.

Here’s how weather conditions impact crime rates in South Africa

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Authorities have shut off Internet access in eastern Ethiopia amid an outbreak of violence there, residents said on Wednesday, a sign of the challenges facing reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in containing ethnic tensions in parts of the country.
The residents, one speaking from Oromia region and the other from the city of Harar, said the connection had been down for three days — the first time access has been cut off since parliament lifted a state of emergency in June.
Ethiopian government spokesman Ahmed Shide did not immediately respond to a phone call and a text message seeking comment on the shutdown, which was reported on Tuesday by digital rights group Access Now.
Violence broke out on Saturday in Jijiga, the capital of Ethiopia’s Somali region, with mobs looting properties owned by ethnic minorities. Security officials shot dead four people, a witness told Reuters.
The government said unrest had been stoked by regional officials.
The residents in Oromia and Harar said they were concerned the violence could spread from the Somali region into other parts of eastern Ethiopia, in part because tit-for-tat ethnic reprisals were one part of the unrest that roiled the country for three years until the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in February.
The government had imposed emergency rule in February, a day after Hailemariam’s resignation after three years of street protests and violent unrest.
Since replacing Desalegn in April, Abiy has turned politics and the economy on its head in the country of 100 million people but continuing ethnic violence poses a challenge to his reform drive.
Nearly 1 million Ethiopians are currently displaced from their homes due to ethnic violence in the Somali and Oromia regions and elsewhere, according to the United Nations.
The government’s move to shut down the Internet amid the latest violence over the weekend suggests a continuation of a knee-jerk reaction to unrest in recent years.
Abiy, a 41-year-old former army officer, has pledged greater freedoms. In the four months since he took office, the government has released political prisoners and lifted a ban on opposition groups.
During the protests before Abiy took office, the government frequently switched off the Internet, sometimes for several months at a time, in Oromia, a large region that surrounds the capital Addis Ababa and extends east all the way to the Somali region.
Halting the ability of young people to organise demonstrations or strikes online or on social media, using smartphones, was a strategy used to contain protests.
Ethiopia, a country of 100 million people, is one of the few countries in the world that still has a state telecoms monopoly, which makes shutting off the internet more simple than if there were multiple telecoms providers.
Reporting by Maggie Fick; Additional reporting by Omar Mohammed; Editing by George Obulutsa, Mark Trevelyan, Richard Balmforth

Why authorities in eastern Ethiopia have shut off access to the internet

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/louise-bezuidenhout-404786">Louise Bezuidenhout</a>, Research fellow in science and technology studies/bioethics, University of Oxford.
How does one train science students without equipment? As a <a href="https://www.insis.ox.ac.uk/people/dr-louise-bezuidenhout">sociologist of science</a> specialising in African countries, this is a question I get asked with sad regularity.
How, African science, technology, engineering and maths educators ask me, can the next generation of globally competitive scientists be trained using teaching laboratories that lack even the most basic equipment?
One of the most basic elements of molecular biology, for example, is to learn about DNA: how genes are expressed and converted into proteins. To do this, students must able to conduct their own experiments – and for that, they need access to a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/probe/docs/techpcr/">polymerase chain reaction</a> to amplify their DNA samples.
While teaching labs in the global North may have dozens of polymerase chain reaction machines, African departments may have just one per laboratory, if at all. Instead of being able to run their own DNA experiments, students in these labs have to work in groups or watch a demonstration by a tutor.
The critical importance of conducting practical experiments as well as learning theory sets science education apart from many other taught courses. The value of this practical training is two-fold: first, it provides an in-depth understanding of the biological systems that are being studied. Second, the practice of science in industry or academia is essentially a practical undertaking. Any graduate wishing to work as a scientist must have a good grasp of how to conduct experiments and produce data.
While there are increasing amounts of often free educational resources available online: videos, Massive Open Online Courses, papers and tutorials, they can’t make up for students getting their hands dirty – so to speak – at the lab bench
To truly understand their discipline, students need the opportunity to interact with laboratory equipment <a href="http://www.gettingpractical.org.uk/documents/EmmaWoodleyarticle.pdf">through practical instruction</a>. Learning how to conduct experiments and deal with both the successes and failures of bench science is <a href="http://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_073330.pdf">an important part</a> of developing as a scientist. The skills that students develop through practical experiments are also fundamental for progressing into successful graduate studies and research careers.
There’s been considerable recent support for science and related education in Africa. That includes a rising number of training programmes, graduate scholarships and research support. However, regional universities are still battling to properly equip teaching laboratories. There isn’t much money specifically earmarked for this task. Educators often have to rely on equipment bought out of hard-won grants, or rely on the increasingly aged equipment left over from forgotten past projects. New, imported equipment is prohibitively expensive. It’s also difficult to maintain.
This is why my colleagues <a href="https://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/helena.webb/">Helena Webb</a>, <a href="http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/jason.nurse/">Jason Nurse</a>, <a href="https://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/marina.jirotka/">Marina Jirotka</a> and I designed <a href="https://labhackathon.wordpress.com/">LabHack</a>. It’s an event that aims to inspire budding innovators to take matters into their own hands and build the equipment they need to learn. Undergraduate student teams compete to design low-cost versions of basic laboratory equipment using hardware available in a local African context. Our first LabHack was held at the Harare Institute of Technology in Zimbabwe in June 2018. The resulting prototypes were highly inventive and far cheaper than anything that’s commercially available.
<h2>Innovation in action</h2>
During the Zimbabwe LabHack teams of students from four universities, as well as local hobbyists and one high school team, demonstrated their prototypes for low cost laboratory equipment built out of locally-available hardware.
All the teams were interdisciplinary, which was important not only for design issues but also offered a means of building strong links for future collaborations.
The teams were asked to design one of three types of basic but crucial lab equipment: a magnetic stirrer, a polymerase chain reaction machine, and a centrifuge.
There was also an open challenge for students to build other types of equipment that would be used in teaching their specific discipline of science. In this category entries included a digital microscope and a bioprocessor, which is used for culturing cells.
Each team was supplied with an Arduino kit, a single-board microcontroller that allows the equipment to be programmable. Apart from that they were self-funded and used easily available local resources. No team spent more than $100 on their final designs – a clear demonstration of how innovative thinking can produce highly inventive, working prototypes.
The teams also participated in a range of workshops hosted by local tech companies, which exposed students to emerging technologies like 3D printing and 3D scanning. Having these companies present their working models for tech-driven job creation in Zimbabwe also illustrated the possibilities of creating tech start-ups for possible future career choices.
<h2>Smart prototypes</h2>
The prize for best prototype went to a team that created a programmable centrifuge whose casing was predominantly designed out of plywood and cardboard. It was fully functional and significantly cheaper than any commercially-available models. Another winner created a centrifuge that relied on a motor taken from a toy car.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100792/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />These innovations effectively demonstrated the potential for equipping low-resourced educational laboratories with low-cost alternatives to expensive, imported equipment. We are hoping – with enough funding and sponsorship – that the Zimbabwe event will be the first of many LabHacks on the African continent. These could build a new community of science learners who study science in Africa, on machines designed by Africans for an African context.
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-way-to-equip-africas-science-labs-get-students-to-build-their-own-100792">original article</a>.

Here’s how Africa’s science students can build the equipment they need to learn

The South African government’s plan to <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-07-31-anc-to-change-constitution-to-expropriate-land-without-compensation/">change the constitution</a> to mention land expropriation without compensation could, ironically, end up strengthening the property rights on which investment depends.
Pressure to change the Constitution to allow the government to expropriate land without compensation is currently the country’s most contentious issue. Supporters insist that the measure is essential to end racial land ownership patterns which continue to favour whites a quarter century after the end of apartheid. Critics insist that this will threaten property rights and choke off investment.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has now announced that the governing African National Congress will support a change to the constitution’s property clause. This was greeted with predictable <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/big-blow-for-rand-economy-as-anc-set-to-change-constitution-on-land-20180801">anxiety</a> among pro-business commentators. But their fear that the change will weaken property rights seems misplaced. To see why, we must look at what property rights are, what the constitution says and what Ramaphosa and the ANC leadership may have in mind.
Much of the fear seems based on a view of property rights which sounds credible but does not describe reality in market economies. It sees property rights as the right to do whatever you like with what you own. The philosopher <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Property-Mainstream-Positions-C-B-MacPherson/dp/0802063365">CB MacPherson</a> pointed out four decades ago that this is not how property was understood until fairly recently, and not how property rights actually operate.
There is no unlimited right to property anywhere. People who own homes cannot use them to make banned substances or to fire missiles at neighbours. People who own factories cannot use them to enslave labourers or to pump poisons into the air and water. If owners ignore these rules, they will be forced to give up some of their property. Some might even lose the property – think of restaurant owners whose businesses are closed down by health authorities to protect consumers.
None of this is inconsistent with a market economy. On the contrary, these rules are essential to markets. A good analogy is a set of traffic lights. They limit what car and truck owners can do with their property, but they are essential to keeping the property safe.
The property rights of owners are, therefore, strong enough to allow them to invest with confidence when they know what the rules are which decide whether they keep their property.
Certainty is the key – not a blank cheque.
<h2>The Constitution</h2>
Section 25 of the South African Constitution, which is often held up by friends and foes as a cast-iron guarantee of property rights, is nothing of the sort. It does say the state can expropriate property only if it pays compensation and lists criteria which courts must take into account when deciding compensation. But clause (8) says:
<blockquote>No provision of this section may impede the state from taking legislative and other measures… to redress the results of past racial discrimination</blockquote>
That’s if it complies with Section 36(1) which says the measure must be:
<blockquote>reasonable and justifiable in an open and democratic society based on human dignity, equality and freedom.</blockquote>
So the Section does allow expropriation without compensation – but the wording spelling out when it is allowed is vague. If the government were to test this in court, different judges would inevitably come to different conclusions. This gives owners no certainty and so they don’t know whether their property is safe.
If the constitution is changed to make clear which property may be expropriated without compensation, property rights would be stronger because it would be clear to owners whether their property is safe and what to do to keep it that way.
This is what Ramaphosa and his party say they have in mind. His announcement did not say the constitution should be changed to allow expropriation without compensation – he said that it already does this. The aim, he said, was a clause which “outlines more clearly the conditions under which” land can be expropriated without compensation – in other words, to provide the clarity the current clause lacks.
If he makes good on his promise, the effect will be to strengthen property rights by making it much clearer when the state can take land without compensation. The wording of the clause will be crucial – if it’s too vague and allows the state too much latitude, it will not strengthen property rights. But it’s unlikely that it will seriously threaten these rights because this would place the property of every home-owning ANC voter at risk.
<h2>Ramaphosa’s change of view</h2>
But, whatever the effect of this particular change, a look at why Ramaphosa made the announcement shows that the right to property in South Africa will be challenged until and unless inequality and economic exclusion are tackled far more vigorously than they are now.
He clearly did not want to change the constitution. After a previous ANC summit on land issues, in May, it insisted that it would not change the constitution. It would, rather, pass an <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/politics/2018-05-22-anc-may-bolster-bill--for-land-seizures-without-compensation/">Expropriation Bill</a> and test whether the land redistribution it planned was possible within the current wording.
His <a href="https://probonomatters.co.za/2018/08/ramaphosa-our-people-want-the-constitution-be-more-explicit-about-expropriation-of-land-without-compensation/">announcement</a> this week sounded reluctant: he said that the current constitutional wording does allow expropriation without compensation and then insisted on the need to change it – there was no logical connection between the two.
This strongly suggests that he was forced to change position. Since the change came after a meeting called by the ANC’s National Executive Committee, it was surely pressure from this body which forced a change. This is confirmed by a <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2018-08-02-anc-aims-for-explicit-clarity-in-land-law/">report</a> claiming that he shifted because the faction within the National Executive Committee which supports former president Jacob Zuma is using the land issue to embarrass him and his faction.
It’s easy to see why Ramaphosa and his allies had no answer to this. Inequality and economic exclusion remain deeply entrenched – the well-off are no longer all white but the poor are still almost all black.
Many black professionals and business people believe the economy is still controlled by the white minority. Given all this, no politician whose support base is overwhelmingly black can deny the need for change without facing the same ridicule as Congress of the People leader <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2018-07-12-whites-bought-their-land-says-cope-leader-mosiuoa-lekota/">Mosiuoa Lekota</a>, whose opposition to land expropriation has politically isolated him .
<h2>Realities need to change</h2>
South African economic realities mean that rejecting economic change is simply not an option for politicians who seek a large black support base. It will be hard for them to insist on strong safeguards for property when many of their voters do not own any.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100979/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />The obvious way to change this is to change these realities – to begin to negotiate economic changes which will open the mainstream economy to millions who now languish on its fringes while securing property rights for all.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-friedman-297963">Steven Friedman</a>, Professor of Political Studies, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-johannesburg-1275">University of Johannesburg</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/changes-to-the-constitution-may-boost-not-weaken-south-african-property-rights-100979">original article</a>.

Why South Africa’s plans to change constitution by expropriating land without compensation could strengthen property rights

By Gary van Staden, Senior Political Analyst at NKC African Economics
President Cyril Ramaphosa on Tuesday, July 31, took a leaf form his predecessor’s play book and sprung a late-night surprise on the nation with the announcement that the constitution would be amended to facilitate land expropriation without compensation, rendering futile any further discussion and representations on the issue.
It was a legalistic, populist political gambit that merely reinforces the belief that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has no unclouded vision of where it wants to go but is determined to go there anyway.
The decision taken at the ANC’s two-day National Executive Committee (NEC) lekgotla was apparently informed by the views expressed at the ongoing hearings on land taking place across the country and headed by Parliament’s Constitutional Review Committee.
The fact that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) voiced the view in favour of expropriation without compensation the most loudly spooked the ANC NEC and led to what is a premature decision.
The decision to amend the constitution to facilitate something the constitution already allows for was explained as a need to allow for the “explicit” expropriation of land without compensation.
Local media reported that Mr Ramaphosa said it had become “patently clear that our people want the constitution be more explicit about expropriation of land without compensation, as demonstrated in the public hearings. The lekgotla reaffirmed its position that a comprehensive land reform programme that enables equitable access to land will unlock economic growth by bringing more land in South Africa to full use and [will] enable the productive participation of millions more South Africans in the economy.”
It would be difficult to find a reasonable South African who would deny the urgent and necessary need for land reform, but such a reasonable person would also want to see the plan to understand the strategy and policy framework that would guide such reform in order to ensure that it would succeed in its mission of empowering the dispossessed and unlocking economic potential.
What they would have seen on Tuesday night was an ANC terrified that the EFF was going to stake a leadership claim on the issue of land redistribution and that was politically unpalatable.
So, we were treated to another dose of populist rhetoric with no clear answers or even a hint to the critical questions of what land, where, how, for whom under what policy and regulatory environments, and with what predetermined outcomes.
While it would be reasonable once again to accept that such details and agendas and policy frameworks could not be explored at Tuesday night’s late briefing, there is a real concern that these details, agendas and policy guidelines do not in fact exist and that the detailed issues of land redistribution and the myriad problems that the whole saga brings to the fore are seriously lagging electoral concerns.
There are several institutions and NGOs who have done sterling and valuable work on the ‘backstage’ issues, problems and complexities of a serious land reform programme that would address the real problems and facilitate real solutions without political grandstanding and empty rhetoric.
These institutions deal with key aspects of a land reform programme and offer various scenarios for taking the entire process forward, but these solutions do not always carry the electoral windfall political parties are seeking to tap into.
There is broad agreement among those organisations serious about land reform that constitutional amendments are not required to facilitate the process, but this detailed practical set of policy initiatives is far less sexy than political posturing on electoral platforms and the late, late press show.
The problem is that the consequences of these press shows are often dire and, given the lack of any context or any reasonable framework in which to place the dramatic announcements, inevitably lead to negative financial and economic consequences and undermine confidence.
There was a chance here for a successful land reform programme that would involve both benefit to our people and a growth of investor confidence in how well the issue was managed. That outcome is now off the table.

Op-Ed: South Africa’s rush into populist politics in a policy vacuum

<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227400/original/file-20180712-27045-moi0if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20180712 27045 moi0if.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>Shutterstock
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sharon-fonn-162995">Sharon Fonn</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
After a four and a half year probe initiated by South Africa’s Competition Commission, a panel of independent experts <a href="http://www.compcom.co.za/provisional-%20findings-and-recommendations-report/">released</a> their preliminary report into the country’s private health care market. The Conversation Africa spoke to Sharon Fonn, who was on the panel of experts, about the report.
Why was a market inquiry set up?
The inquiry was set up because private health care and medical scheme cover is expensive in South Africa. Costs continue to rise and fewer people can afford it. People who have health insurance find that the scheme covers less care and they often have to pay out of pocket.
Also, the private health care sector consumes a large amount of the health care spend and resources despite the fact that it only serves a small portion of the population. The private health care market serves about 18% of the population who buy health care insurance sold by medical schemes. But the private market consumes about half of the total health spend every year.
What did you find about competition – or lack of – in the sector?
The first thing to realise is that this is a complicated market with lots of different players in it so there isn’t a straightforward easy answer. It’s complex.
The report talks about a funder market. What is this and what did you find?
By funders we mean the companies that purchase health care. This includes medical schemes, the administrators that schemes use and the managed care organisations that the schemes contract with. We found that competition doesn’t operate as it should on the funder side of the market.
Basically what schemes do is pool the money that members of schemes give in premiums each month. The point of health insurance is to enable money to be pooled so that the healthy can cross-subsidise the sick. Over time it evens out.
Health insurance is there to protect people from catastrophic expenditure. Members should want their scheme to be careful and wise with their money.
Is this not happening and if not why not?
We think this isn’t happening for a number of reasons. It’s not to do with schemes being bad. It’s about the way the market operates.
One of the reasons it’s hard to know if schemes are being wise is that consumers don’t have the information they need. There are about 270 different health care plans on offer from all the various medical aid schemes – each offers different cover and costs a different amount. It’s very difficult to compare them and work out which option offers the best bang for a person’s buck.
We have recommended that all schemes have to offer a basic package that offers the same care. Consumers could then compare like with like.
On top of this there are also regulatory problems (rules about how schemes work) where we recommend changes so that it’s easier for schemes to offer a single comparable package.
So one package is one solution. But how does a person know if the quality is good or bad?
In the private market there are no measures of quality that are shared with 
the public. Consumers don’t know if a hospital is good or bad. There is also no way to judge if care being provided by doctors and specialists is effective as there are no measures on whether or not people are better afterwards.
This can lead to more and more interventions – and a waste of money.
If data are pooled and lots of doctors and patients report about health outcomes, we can begin to know if having an extra test or some kind of intervention works. We make a recommendation about reporting on quality and outcomes.
You looked at hospitals – what did you find?
We found that is a very high level of concentration in the hospital sector. Three hospital groups dominate: Netcare, Mediclinic and Life. They have more than 80% of the hospital beds available and get 90% of all the admissions. This distorts and restricts competition.
We have made some recommendations around this. But one thing we think is essential is a supply side regulator that would, among other things, assist provinces in issuing licenses for hospitals. Some countries, like Germany, are very strict about the number of beds available in the hospital sector.
The report also talks about doctors, what did you find?
There are problems when it comes to the way doctors and specialists work. They work as individuals – not as a team. Team-based care is an internationally accepted standard because it provides better care and can be more cost effective. But our system doesn’t allow this easily.
Also doctors and specialists use a fee-for-service billing model. This means they bill patients for each service they perform during a consultation. Obviously people inclined to maximise their income they will do more so they earn more. There is no good mechanism to manage this.
This is a universal problem. Different countries have different ways of managing it. In Sweden, for example, almost all specialists are salaried and paid by the state. So they don’t have an incentive to do more to earn more.
There is a chapter supply induced demand. What’s that about?
Basically it means that when some additional care is offered (increased access), additional use of the service that would not have otherwise have happened takes place.
This has two consequences: wasteful expenditure and patients being over serviced.
*How does South Africa compare to other countries? *
When it comes to the private health care sector South Africa faces a problem of over-servicing and over supplying. Three examples illustrate this.
Firstly, hospital admission rates are extremely high. South Africa’s rate was higher than all but two of 17 other OECD countries we used as comparisons.
We also looked at seven different surgical procedures. In four, South Africa had the highest usage rates.
Lastly we looked at the number of people that get admitted to intensive care units. We found that South Africa had higher admission rates than eight other countries with comparable published data.
What will it take to break the current patterns?
We recommend that the regulatory regime needs to be improved. Regulators aren’t as sensitive to competition issues as they could be. South Africa has laws in place but they aren’t being fully used. Stewardship from the Department of Health has also been weak.
But we were also very aware that there is no quick fix. The market is incredibly complex. This means that several interrelated interventions are needed. Market failures will persist if the recommendations aren’t introduced as a package.
We also kept in mind that the country is trying to move towards a system of Universal Health Coverage and we have been mindful not to undermine that vision.
What, in summary are your main recommendations?
<ul>
<li>The way in which schemes operate needs to change. This should include the way options are structured so that people can compare apples with apples. We hope that will improve accountability in the funder market.</li>
<li>More transparency: a system needs to be put in place that allows people to see what value they’re getting for what they’re paying for.</li>
<li><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99799/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Greater competition, especially in the hospital sector is needed.</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sharon-fonn-162995">Sharon Fonn</a>, Professsor of Public Health; Co-Director Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa; Panel Member, Private Healthcare Market Inquiry, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-the-witwatersrand-894">University of the Witwatersrand</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-competitive-is-south-africas-private-health-care-sector-99799">original article</a>.

EXPLAINER: Is South Africa’s private health care sector competitive?

HARARE (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his main opponent, Nelson Chamisa, both said on Tuesday they were confident of victory in an election the previous day which observers deemed too early to call.
Mnangagwa said he was receiving “extremely positive” information on the vote. Chamisa said earlier the opposition Movement for Democratic Change had done “exceedingly well” in the vote.
The 75-year-old Mnangagwa and Chamisa, 40, were the main contenders in Monday’s election, the first since Robert Mugabe was removed in a bloodless coup in November.
Western diplomats and local observer groups said the race, which saw a turnout of 75 percent, was too close to call.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission will announce official results within five days of the election although the outcome should be known well before then.
The winner faces the task of putting Zimbabwe back on track after 37 years under Mugabe which were tainted by corruption, mismanagement and diplomatic isolation that caused a crisis in a country that once had one of Africa’s most promising economies.
“The information from our reprentatives on the ground is extremely positive!” Mnangagwa said on his official Twitter feed.
Chamisa had earlier said he was poised for victory, writing on Twitter: “Awaiting ZEC to perform their constitutional duty to officially announce the people’s election results and we are ready to form the next government.”
A Chamisa victory is unlikely to sit well with military generals who plotted Mugabe’s ouster last November, and there could be a pushback.
Some of the generals who orchestrated the coup are now in government, including Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Many Zimbabweans worry that should Mnangagwa lose some in the ruling party may not accept the result, given the huge risk they took in removing Mugabe.
Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF have said they will accept the result.
“THIS IS AFRICA”
“If this guy loses there is no way they will handover power,” said Gift Machekera, pointing at a huge banner of Mnangagwa hanging on a building in Harare.
“Those who have the guns have the power. This is Africa.”
Mnangagwa was viewed as the frontrunner, although the latest opinion polls showed a tight race. There will be a runoff on Sept. 8 if no candidate wins more than half the votes.
Several civil society groups are collating results from 10,985 polling posts in parallel with ZEC but are not allowed to release results before the ZEC. A source at one group said it was too early to call a winner but it was looking “very close”.
In the capital Harare, an MDC stronghold, results posted outside some polling stations seen by Reuters showed Chamisa winning by wide margins, but Mnangagwa was expected to claw back ground in the ruling ZANU-PF’s rural heartland.
Urban results tend to emerge quicker than those from rural outposts, where communication is poor.
In some rural constituencies in the east and south of the country, counting of votes was still ongoing but was expected to end early on Tuesday, some parliamentary candidates said.
A credible vote is essential if Zimbabwe is to exit painful sanctions and secure the donor funding and investment needed to stem chronic cash shortages.
The run-up to Monday’s vote was largely peaceful compared to past elections under Mugabe, where the ruling party and war veterans were accused of violence against opponents.
Dozens of people were killed ahead of a runoff in 2008 between Mugabe and MDC-founder Morgan Tsvangirai, who died of cancer in February.
Mugabe emerged on the eve of the election to announce he would vote for the opposition, surprising Mnangagwa who accused him of striking a deal with Chamisa.
Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe and Joe Brock; Editing by Nick Macfie and Raissa Kasolowsky

Mnangagwa and Chamisa both confident of a victory in Zimbabwe elections, here’s why

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow more slowly this year than previously forecast as investors hold off before elections in early 2019, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, while Kenyan growth is forecast at more than double the pace.
In the poll taken in the past week, analysts and economists’ forecasts showed a median of 2.1 percent growth for Nigeria, accelerating to 3.0 percent next year.
That was a significant downgrade from the previous poll taken three months ago, which showed Africa’s largest economy expanding 2.6 percent this year after a lacklustre 0.8 percent in 2017.
“Upcoming elections and the associated high-wire politics already underway would instigate caution on the part of economic stakeholders,” said Rafiq Raji, chief economist at Macroafricaintel in Lagos, who expects the economy to slow in the next few quarters.
“Business and investment decisions are thus likely to be postponed till after the 2019 elections,” he added.
Nigerians vote in February. On Tuesday, 16 senators quit President Muhammadu Buhari’s ruling party and the country’s third most senior politician said he might follow suit, in a blow to the leader who is seeking re-election next year.
This comes at a tough time for the economy. Growth slowed in the first quarter of 2018 for the first time since the country pulled out of recession last year as the non-oil sector struggled.
Fellow heavyweight South Africa also suffered its worst quarterly contraction in nine years, in a reminder to investors of the huge challenge President Cyril Ramaphosa faces to deliver long term economic growth.
A separate survey earlier this month showed South African GDP is expected to grow 1.5 percent this year. [ECILT/ZA] However, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago shocked markets last week when he revealed the Bank projects growth at only 1.2 percent, slower than last year.
It is a different story for Kenya, east Africa’s biggest economy, where analysts’ forecasts showed a median of 5.5 percent growth this year despite its debt problems. That was unchanged from a poll taken three months ago.
Growth is expected to accelerate next year to 5.9 percent, slightly faster than in the last survey.
Raji attributed this to the fact that Kenya is now an oil producer, even though robust production levels are a long way off. He cautioned that the recent suspension of production by Tullow on security grounds could cause problems.
Tullow aims to produce the first oil from its $2.9 billion Kenya project by 2021, allowing the country to export crude. However, protests and security problems have halted a pilot scheme which trucks around 600 barrels of oil per day to a storage facility in Mombasa.
Major African economies are also at risk to what may be more difficult times for the world economy.
Reuters polls of several hundred economists taken this month show global economic activity remains solid but has already passed its peak, with protectionist trade policies likely to slow activity significantly.
“(The) knock-on impact of higher trade tariffs will weigh on inflation and consumption expenditure in advanced economies,” said Gaimin Nonyane, head of economic research at Ecobank Group. “Extended risk-off sentiment is also a downside risk to price levels and growth in developing countries.”
But many sub-Saharan African economies have been relatively insulated from the challenges facing larger global economies. In Ethiopia, for example, growth has averaged nearly 10 percent for the past decade, albeit from a very low base.
(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)
editing by David Stamp

Here’s why Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow before the 2019 elections

PRETORIA (Reuters) &#8211; China would invest $14.7 billion in South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday after talks between the two countries, news that sent the rand one percent firmer.
Speaking at the same event, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the world’s second-biggest economy would take active measures to expand imports from South Africa to support development in Africa’s most industrialised economy.
Ramaphosa, who has promised to revive the economy since becoming president in February and after winning the leadership of the ruling African National Congress last year, said “Xi has indicated that China is ready to invest and work with South Africa in various sectors.”
The rand firmed after Ramaphosa’s announcement, spurred by offshore demand for the currency, traders said.
South Africa’s struggling state-run power firm Eskom, which swung to a full year loss on Monday, received a $2.5 billion loan from the China Development Bank.
Ramaphosa has focused on revitalising Eskom, Africa’s largest public utility, which was embroiled in corruption scandals under former president Jacob Zuma and narrowly avoided a liquidity crunch early this year after banks halted lending. Zuma has denied wrongdoing.
South Africa’s logistics utility Transnet also received a cash injection, as well as other sectors of the economy, officials said.
Xi said China and South Africa were important emerging economies with similar perspectives on many global issues.
“Hence the need to strengthen cooperation,” Xi said.
Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by James Macharia

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Op-Ed: South Africa’s rush into populist politics in a policy vacuum

EXPLAINER: Is South Africa’s private health care sector competitive?

Mnangagwa and Chamisa both confident of a victory in Zimbabwe elections, here’s why

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China plans to invest $14.7 billion in South Africa, what you need to know

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