How should SA engage Britain post-Brexit?
Last night saw the usual chaos in Britain’s parliament as MP members voted for a no-deal Brexit.
Wed, 30 Jan 2019 15:11:22 GMT
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AI Generated Summary
- The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal is dampening investor sentiment and growth prospects for South Africa and the UK.
- While a no-deal Brexit scenario is undesirable, the likelihood remains low as negotiations between the UK and the EU continue.
- Talks are underway between the UK and Southern African countries to ensure a smooth transition to new trading relationships post-Brexit.
As chaos ensues in the British Parliament with the ongoing discussions about Brexit, concerns rise among South African businesses and investors about the potential implications of the decisions being made. The Prime Minister, Theresa May, is facing pressure to renegotiate key elements of the Brexit agreement, particularly the Irish backstop issue, as international markets, including South Africa, closely monitor the developments. The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal has been negatively impacting investor sentiment and growth prospects not just in the UK but also in countries that have significant trade relations with Britain, such as South Africa.
William Attwell, the practice leader of sub-Saharan Africa at Frontier Strategy Group, emphasized the importance of the UK as an export partner for South Africa and highlighted the potential consequences of a no-deal Brexit. While there are discussions about the UK crashing out without a deal, Attwell expressed a low likelihood, at 10 percent, for such a scenario. He remains optimistic that both parties will eventually reach an agreement, albeit after some back and forth negotiations. This hopeful outlook is good news for African markets that rely on trade with Britain.
The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations raises concerns about the future of trade agreements between the UK and its partners, including South Africa. While the European Union has been firm in stating that the agreement will not be reopened, the UK's mandate to renegotiate complicates the situation. The question of who will back down first remains unanswered, leaving both parties in a delicate position as they navigate the negotiations.
Despite the complexities of the Brexit process, talks between the UK and Southern African Customs Union countries have been ongoing to ensure a smooth transition to a new trading relationship post-Brexit. The aim is to establish a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, while also replicating and replacing existing trading agreements with other global markets, including Southern Africa. The discussions between the UK and Southern African authorities are at an advanced stage to replace the current economic partnership agreement that governs trade between the two regions.
In conclusion, the future of South Africa's trade relations with Britain post-Brexit remains uncertain, with negotiations and discussions ongoing to secure favorable trading terms for both parties. While challenges lie ahead, both South Africa and the UK are working towards reaching a mutually beneficial agreement that will support continued trade and economic growth between the two regions.