How the 2021 Ugandan polls could impact the economy

As Uganda gears up for the highly anticipated 2021 Presidential and MP elections, political tensions are escalating in the East African nation, raising concerns about the potential impact on the economy. In a recent interview with CNBC Africa, Kenneth Agutamba, Chief Strategist at ICS, expressed apprehension about the ripple effects of the political climate on business and investment in Uganda. Agutamba highlighted the World Bank's optimistic growth projections for African economies, including Uganda expected to grow at 6.3% in 2020. However, he cautioned that the focus on politics, arrests, and election dynamics could pose a risk to these projections. With all eyes on the contest between incumbent President Yoweri Museveni and the political newcomer, Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, the uncertainties around the election are casting a shadow over economic stability. Agutamba noted that the private sector is approaching the upcoming elections with caution, leading to a pause in new investments amidst the political uncertainties. While the government's focus is on reelection, Agutamba raised concerns about potential disruptions to integration efforts and joint projects within the East African Community (EAC). The ongoing tensions between Uganda and Rwanda, as well as internal political rifts in Kenya, are further complicating regional cooperation. As the election draws nearer, fears of unrest and violence loom over Uganda, potentially disrupting everyday business operations. Agutamba warned of the historical tendency for confrontations and lack of concession, making the situation unpredictable. The recent incidents involving Bobi Wine's campaign activities being thwarted by authorities and subsequent violence serve as a stark reminder of the volatile environment as the country approaches the 2021 polls. While the hope remains for a peaceful electoral process, the risks of escalating tensions and disruptions to business activities are a cause for concern, not only for Uganda but also for the broader East African region.