COVID-19: UNECA on charting the road to economic recovery in East Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant disruptions to economies in the East African region, leading to a decline in intra-regional trade. Dr. Mama Keita, Director of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa in East Africa, discussed the impact of the pandemic on the region's economies and outlined strategies for recovery in a recent interview with CNBC Africa. The pandemic has caused a significant economic crisis in the region, with medical challenges translating into economic challenges that have greatly impacted trade. Both imports and exports have been affected across the 14 member states that Dr. Keita's office covers. While there have been slowdowns in both imports and exports, the actual decline has not been as severe as initially anticipated. The reduction in trade varies across different sectors, with some industries such as tourism, restaurants, logistics, and transportation being hit particularly hard. On the other hand, sectors like healthcare and medical goods have seen little to no changes in trade. Overall, there has been a modest variation in trade across the different countries in the region. Despite challenges in the tourism sector, which has experienced an over 80 percent reduction in tourist arrivals, some countries are still expected to register a positive growth in GDP amidst the crisis. The GDP in many countries is projected to contract, with estimates ranging from a negative 14 percent to a positive 2 percent growth. Dr. Keita highlighted the importance of regional coordination in managing the COVID-19 crisis. She emphasized that unilateral border closures initially disrupted inter-regional trade in the region but noted that improved coordination through regional bodies like EAC and IGAD helped ease trade restrictions. Common norms for the circulation of goods between countries, regulations for road transport, and guidelines for exports through airlines were crucial for maintaining trade flows. Dr. Keita recommended continued communication and harmonization of measures among countries to ensure the smooth operation of trade while safeguarding public health. Looking ahead, Dr. Keita expressed optimism about the operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement scheduled for January 1, 2021. She highlighted the collective efforts of African countries, officials, and the private sector in advancing the agreement. With 32 countries having ratified the agreement and significant progress made on rules of origin, Dr. Keita believes that the momentum for AfCFTA is strong, signaling meaningful progress towards fostering free trade across the continent. As countries continue to ratify the agreement and outline their terms for trade in goods and services, Dr. Keita encourages all member states to join the initiative and contribute to shaping the future of trade in Africa.