Somali president abandons his quest for a term extension

Somalia's President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed recently announced that he would abandon his bid to extend his term by two years, under mounting pressure from both domestic and international stakeholders. This decision comes after violent clashes in the capital Mogadishu and a split in security forces along ethnic lines. The country has been embroiled in a political crisis, with implications for its economy. Samira Gaid, a National Security Practitioner at the Federal Government of Somalia, shed light on the situation in a recent interview on CNBC Africa. Over the past four years of President Mohamed's tenure, Somalia has faced a series of challenges. While progress was expected in conducting elections, particularly towards a one person, one vote system, little headway has been made. Despite initial agreements for an indirect election due to logistical challenges, President Mohamed frequently withdrew from negotiations, leading to a stalemate. The resulting political crisis has plunged the country into unprecedented turmoil, affecting businesses and the overall economy. Somalia's economy heavily relies on remittances from the diaspora as well as port activity. However, with the ongoing political instability and the impact of COVID-19, business activity has suffered, with reports of a significant decline in port activity and revenue. Moreover, taxation issues have added to the economic strain, exacerbating the challenges faced by the population. The uncertainty surrounding the transition of power further clouds the economic outlook. While President Mohamed has committed to not extending his term, the timeline for a new leadership to take over remains uncertain. External mediation, particularly by the African Union, is seen as crucial in expediting the transition process. However, with the current power dynamics and lack of consensus among stakeholders, the path to a new dispensation appears fraught with challenges. Gaid emphasized the importance of swift action to avert a prolonged period of political instability and economic downturn. She highlighted the potential impact on critical issues such as salary payments for civil servants and security forces, which could be jeopardized if the political impasse persists. President Mohamed's economic legacy has been marred by the setback in financial support due to non-compliance with international benchmarks. While there were initial strides towards economic reforms, including engagement with international financial institutions, the current situation risks undoing the progress made. The fragility of Somalia's economy is underscored by the looming threat of sanctions and reduced international support. The need for a unified federal government to navigate the economic challenges is paramount. However, political discord and a lack of consensus pose significant hurdles to economic recovery. Gaid stressed the importance of a cohesive federal government to address the root causes of Somalia's economic fragility and security issues. The road to economic stability in Somalia hinges on political unity and effective governance to steer the country towards a sustainable recovery.