The Power Table: Ramaphosa expected to shuffle cabinet

Following the recent elective conference of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, speculations are rife about an impending cabinet reshuffle. President Cyril Ramaphosa faces the daunting task of replacing ministers who oppose him with his supporters. This political chess game is crucial for the party and the country. The uncertainty lingers as to who will stay and who will exit the cabinet. Key political analysts and experts believe that the reshuffle is imminent, with several key figures potentially facing the axe. Ongama Mtimka, a Political Analyst, highlighted the complexities that President Ramaphosa is confronting in this process. He mentioned that key considerations include political alignment, state capability issues, stakeholder interests, and building a government for the future. The President must straddle these dynamics carefully to ensure a successful reshuffle. The upcoming changes are expected to address concerns regarding ministers who did not make it to the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC. One of the central figures under scrutiny is the Minister of Transport, Fikile Mbalula. His dual role as the current transport minister and the secretary general of the ANC poses a constitutional conundrum. According to party regulations, the secretary general cannot hold another position outside the ANC. Hence, it is highly likely that Mbalula will be stepping down. The speculation on his replacement revolves around the need for an experienced individual to navigate the challenges in the transport sector seamlessly. In addition to Mbalula, other key figures facing potential removal include Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who has had public disagreements with President Ramaphosa. The Minister of International Trade, Naledi Pandor, and the Deputy President, David Mabuza, who did not secure a spot in the NEC, are also on the radar for potential exits. Experts believe that these changes signify a shift in political alliances and aim to strengthen President Ramaphosa's support base within the cabinet. Peter Attard Montalto, the Head of Capital Markets Research at Intellidex, underscored the importance of the impending reshuffle in key economic sectors. He emphasized the need for a balanced approach in the Ministry of Energy and Resources, especially concerning renewable energy and gas developments. Montalto suggested that a fresh perspective in these sectors could reignite investor confidence and stimulate economic growth. The debate around the management of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) like Eskom has also stirred controversy. The ANC's resolution to place SOEs under the respective departments raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and rent-seeking behaviors. The issue of nationalizing the Reserve Bank further complicates the economic landscape, causing unease among investors. David Ansara, the Chief Executive of the Free Market Foundation, expressed skepticism about the policy direction under President Ramaphosa. He cautioned against reshuffling leadership without addressing underlying systemic issues in the country. Ansara highlighted the need for a conducive investment environment and a clear stance on economic policies to propel South Africa towards sustainable growth. As the speculation mounts and the political landscape in South Africa shifts, President Ramaphosa faces a critical juncture in his leadership. The impending cabinet reshuffle is not merely a game of musical chairs but a strategic maneuver to consolidate power, drive policy reforms, and navigate the complexities of governance amid internal party dynamics. The decisions made in the coming days will shape the trajectory of the country's future and determine the success of President Ramaphosa's administration.