Will Ghana attain 80% participation in debt swap deal?

Ghana Pensioner Bondholders Forum are hopeful that their investment will be spared from the country's Domestic Debt Exchange Programme. The forum has expressed optimism as they prepare to observe Parliament proceedings tomorrow while the Minister of Finance presents before the Business Committee of the House. Courage Boti, an economist at GCB Capital, shed light on the current situation and what lies ahead. The economist shared insights on the likelihood of attaining the target participation percentage, the upcoming committee meeting, stakeholder concerns, and the significance of the deal's success for Ghana's recovery and potential IMF engagement. The forum's anticipation stems from various factors influencing the feasibility of achieving an 80% participation rate. By scrutinizing the exempted groups, including the pension sector and individual bondholders, it is evident that challenges exist, such as uncertainties surrounding foreign bondholders' decisions, potentially hindering the attainment of the ambitious participation target. Despite the obstacles encountered throughout the process, including resistance and extensions, even a participation rate in the range of 65-70% could be deemed a success. Boti emphasized that such a level of accomplishment, while slightly below the initial target, should still be considered a significant stride. The looming appearance of the Finance Minister before the committee holds paramount importance as key details regarding the progress of the debt exchange and its implications need to be communicated effectively to the public and decision-makers alike. Boti anticipates that the meeting will provide clarity on the journey thus far, addressing key performance indicators concerning the IMF and shedding light on potential milestones ahead. The impending closure of the exchange and subsequent announcements are also anticipated, marking a crucial juncture in Ghana's economic recovery trajectory. The concerns raised by stakeholders, particularly pensioner bondholders, have not escaped scrutiny. While acknowledging the demands for exemptions voiced by individual bondholders, Boti highlighted the complexity of addressing these concerns amidst regulatory considerations and market dynamics. The differentiation in treatment between old and new bonds based on risk ratings and liquidity challenges further complicates the situation, influencing the market dynamics and investor sentiment. Despite the uncertainties surrounding certain stakeholder demands, Boti underscored the significance of the tailored window provided by the ministry to address the retirement-related concerns of individuals impacted by the exchange program. As the success of the debt swap deal plays a pivotal role in Ghana's broader economic recovery and potential engagement with the IMF, the attainment of the 80% participation goal remains a focal point. While recognizing that the target may be ambitious, Boti stressed that achieving a slightly lower participation rate in the range of 65-70% would still be considered a commendable achievement. By demonstrating substantial progress amidst challenges and opposition, such a success rate could serve as a strong foundation to engage with external creditors and advance discussions with the IMF. Boti emphasized that while the 80% target was set as a guiding aspiration, it is not binding, allowing for flexibility in the negotiation and engagement processes. The economist expressed optimism that even if the target is not met, substantial progress in participation could pave the way for constructive engagements with bilateral creditors and the IMF, bolstering Ghana's path to economic recovery and sustainability.