Unpacking Russia & Ukraine's renewed interest in Africa

The recent visits of both Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukraine's Foreign Minister to Africa have sparked renewed interest and speculation about the geopolitical implications for the continent. The war between Russia and Ukraine has sent ripples through the markets in Africa, with both countries seeking to expand their influence and form alliances in the region. CNBC Africa spoke with Declan Galvin, Head of Insight, Information, & Intelligence at WS Insights, to gain a deeper understanding of the situation. Galvin shed light on the broader picture of Russia and China's alignment in Africa to create alternative diplomatic and economic systems to counter the West, particularly the United States and the European Union. Africa, with its 54 independent states, presents a strategic opportunity for Russia and China to establish new trading partnerships and allies. Lavrov's visit to Kenya and other countries as part of the BRICS nations is viewed as a tactical move to mitigate the impact of sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine invasion. By bolstering ties with Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia aims to shape outcomes and advance its geopolitical interests. The engagements go beyond trade, signaling Russia's strategic efforts to align itself with Africa and drive mutual interests. Galvin pointed out that Africa stands to benefit from Russia's offerings, such as high-quality fertilizers for agricultural development and the potential for enhanced trade using local currencies like the rupee or shilling. In return, Russia eyes Africa's abundant natural resources and seeks to leverage these assets through strategic partnerships, including the use of groups like the Wagner Group to advance economic interests. The interactions between Russia, Ukraine, and Africa raise questions about the continent's role in global diplomacy. African nations are caught in a diplomatic tussle as major powers seek to gain influence and secure alliances. Galvin emphasized the importance of consistent engagement by global powers with African states to ensure a cohesive approach and avoid forcing positions on sensitive matters. As Africa navigates the complexities of aligning with various powers, particularly in energy and trade agreements, the continent's stance on neutrality becomes crucial. The evolving dynamics in global politics present both challenges and opportunities for African states, as they weigh the benefits of partnering with different regions and consider the implications of their decisions on long-term economic growth.