What El Niño's return means for SA’s agricultural sector

The return of El Nino, a weather pattern associated with hotter temperatures and potential droughts, has raised concerns about its impact on Southern Africa's agricultural sector. While some economists suggest that this year's El Nino may not be as severe as the 2016 one, thanks to positive weather patterns leading up to it, uncertainties remain about its full impact. Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, shared valuable insights on the potential outcomes and preparations needed in the region. Sihlobo highlighted that countries like South Africa and Zambia have benefited from four consecutive seasons of sufficient moisture, potentially mitigating the severity of the upcoming El Nino season. However, regions like northern Zimbabwe, which have faced dry conditions, may experience more pronounced effects. On the other hand, East Africa, which has suffered from drought, is expected to receive good rains, providing relief to those regions. In terms of readiness, Sihlobo emphasized that countries vary in their preparedness, with major producers like South Africa set to have good crop yields, while neighboring countries like Zimbabwe may need to import maize due to lower supplies. The issue of food security remains a concern, with varied impacts depending on countries' agricultural practices and inputs. Regarding pricing and food inflation, Sihlobo acknowledged the challenges, noting that while food price inflation has moderated in some areas, it remains a significant concern for the region. He suggested that with the harvest of grains and declining global agricultural prices, food price inflation may see some relief in the coming months. However, factors like energy challenges in food processing could still pose risks to inflation levels. Sihlobo projected that South Africa's consumer food price inflation could average between 8% and 9% for the year, with some uncertainties tied to currency fluctuations. Despite risks associated with a weakening rand, Sihlobo expressed confidence that current projections could hold if certain conditions are met. In terms of government preparedness, Sihlobo stressed the importance of early warnings to farmers, promoting water-saving farming techniques, and maintaining reserves for emergency support. While some governments may face limitations in financial aid, clear communication and flexible fiscal measures can help mitigate potential impacts on lives and livelihoods. Overall, Sihlobo's insights shed light on the complexities of managing El Nino's effects on agriculture in Southern Africa and the critical steps needed to navigate the challenges ahead.