Uganda's 2024 economic outlook

Uganda's economic outlook for 2024 appears promising as Global Research firm BMI projects a real GDP growth of 5.8 per cent after a slowdown to 4.6 per cent in 2023. Professor Ibrahim Mike Okumu, Dean of the School of Economics at Makerere University, shared insights on the country's economic recovery and resilience during a recent interview on CNBC Africa. Looking back at the challenges faced in 2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Professor Okumu expressed optimism about Uganda's path to recovery, citing initiatives like the Parish to Augment model. This model aims to transition households from subsistence farming to commercial production by focusing on financial inclusion, infrastructure development, and value addition in the agricultural sector. He highlighted the importance of reducing post-harvest losses and enhancing marketing strategies to maximize production outcomes. Furthermore, the upcoming entry of Uganda into the global oil market and the focus on leveraging the tourism sector indicate potential growth opportunities for the country. As Uganda learns from its regional counterparts and adapts to changing market dynamics, the outlook for 2024 seems positive. When discussing Uganda's resilience amidst economic challenges, Professor Okumu acknowledged the country's stable currency and prudent financial management by the Central Bank. Despite external pressures such as the shift of investment towards safer Western markets, he emphasized Uganda's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds. The country's resilience in the face of global market dynamics sets a favorable tone for economic growth in 2024. However, recent developments like the removal of Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the US and the suspension of World Bank funding pose potential challenges. Professor Okumu views Uganda's exclusion from AGOA as a setback but emphasizes the need to diversify export markets and engage with the US to maintain trade relations. He underlines the significance of accessing high-end markets like the US for industries such as cotton production. Despite the setbacks, he urges proactive steps to rebuild relationships and restore investor confidence in Uganda's market. While discussing the impact of these decisions on Uganda's macroeconomic projections, Professor Okumu remains optimistic about the country's adaptability and potential to explore alternative markets. As Uganda navigates changes in global trade relations, the focus on enhancing domestic industries and fostering international partnerships will be crucial in driving economic growth in 2024. The interview concluded with a positive note on Uganda's economic resilience and the potential for sustained growth in the upcoming year. With a strategic outlook towards key sectors like agriculture, oil, and tourism, Uganda aims to build on past achievements and establish a stable trajectory for economic development.