Sudan’s 2024 economic outlook

Sudan, once boasting the 11th largest economy in Africa, has been grappling with a severe economic downturn following the outbreak of conflict in 2023. With over 5.2 million people displaced and significant loss in infrastructure and skilled labor, the road to recovery has been challenging. The International Monetary Fund projects a modest growth of 0.3 percent in 2024, a glimmer of hope in the midst of persistent conflict. CNBC Africa's Eric Shaka sat down with Akoldok Managing Partner Adores to shed light on the path ahead for Sudan's economic outlook. Adores highlighted the detrimental impact of the conflict on Sudan's economy, with the Sudanese pound plummeting by nearly 50 percent and the economy contracting by 18 percent. Prior to the conflict, Sudan's economy was robust and diverse, boasting a strong presence in sectors such as gum Arabic trading, sesame, sorghum, as well as industry, oil and gas, and mining. However, the conflict has disrupted these sectors, leading to economic instability. When discussing the prospects for economic recovery in 2024, Adores emphasized the critical need for a political solution to the conflict. The key to unlocking Sudan's economic potential lies in resolving the political tensions and ensuring safety and security for its citizens. Adores pointed out that the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Douglou, popularly known as Hameti, has been engaging in a regional tour to garner support for the cause, highlighting the complex web of political dynamics at play. Despite the estimated $49 billion loss and a significant exodus of skilled labor, Adores remains optimistic about Sudan's potential for economic recovery. The focus on peace and security is paramount, especially in the agriculture sector, which accounts for 40 percent of the GDP and 80 percent of jobs. Restoring stability is crucial to reinvigorating agricultural production and other key sectors, such as gold and exports. The unresolved conflict in Sudan not only hampers its own economic prospects but also has far-reaching implications for neighboring countries in the region. Countries like South Sudan, Chad, and Central African Republic are directly impacted by the conflict, with economic ties and potential alternative routes being explored to mitigate the effects. The interconnected nature of regional economies underscores the urgency of finding a lasting solution to the crisis in Sudan. As the conflict continues to simmer, the risks of further destabilization loom large, with implications for countries beyond Sudan's borders. The region must prioritize efforts to facilitate dialogue and reach a ceasefire to prevent the escalation of the conflict. Collaborative efforts involving political, religious, and cultural leaders are essential to charting a path towards peace and stability in Sudan and safeguarding the economic well-being of the region.