South Africa’s vote 2024: Coalition permutation

Oxford Economics has recently published a report containing four permutations for South Africa's upcoming national election. The report suggests that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to lose its majority rule in the upcoming election. Titled 'ANC & Friends' election scenario, the report delves into the trends in South Africa's political landscape since the advent of democracy in 1994 and discusses the potential market impact of each election scenario. Senior Political Analyst, Louw Nel from Oxford Economics, joined CNBC Africa to provide insights into the report. Nel highlighted the recent busy weekend filled with political rallies across the country, emphasizing the significant organizational power and financial resources possessed by the ANC, as evidenced by the massive turnouts at their events. He cautioned against underestimating the strategic planning behind these rallies, which often resemble rock concerts with high-profile performers. The report's baseline scenario, named 'ANC and Friends,' predicts that the ANC will lose its majority but still secure around 46 to 50 percent of the vote, allowing them to form a coalition with smaller parties to retain power. This continuity scenario foresees the ANC governing without much pressure from coalition partners. However, two other scenarios project the ANC's support dropping below 45 percent, forcing them into coalitions with the DA or the EFF, leading to different outcomes and potentially more significant negotiating power for the opposition. The fourth and least likely scenario, dubbed the 'moonshot pact,' envisions an opposition coalition coming into power, posing both positive outcomes and risks due to the ANC losing power for the first time in 30 years. Nel discussed potential coalition partners at the national level, including one and two seat parties that historically cooperated with the ANC, such as the IFP, Good, Al-Jamal, AIM, and ATM. He also mentioned the emergence of the MK party, impacting the KZN region's political landscape and influencing potential coalition decisions. Nel further explored provincial coalitions, particularly in KZN and Gauteng, where fragmented votes may necessitate ANC coalitions with smaller parties like EFF, IFP, or MK. Addressing the possibility of an ANC-DA coalition, Nel highlighted common policy grounds, like fiscal prudence, but noted disagreements on issues like healthcare, suggesting avenues for compromise to form a stable government. He stressed the private sector's positive outlook on a potential ANC-DA coalition, emphasizing the need for strong leadership and commitment to make the coalition work effectively. Nel also pointed out the risks for the DA in case of coalition failure, underscoring the high stakes and motivations for both parties to ensure success. Overall, the upcoming national election in South Africa appears poised for a significant political shift, with potential coalition permutations indicating a new era in the country's governance.