South Africa’s vote 2024: ANC’s 30-year majority rule threatened

South Africa's 7th democratic elections have brought to light the potential end of the African National Congress's (ANC) 30-year majority rule. As the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) continues counting the votes, political parties are strategizing their next moves in anticipation of possible coalition governments. CNBC Africa's Fifi Peters recently interviewed Helen Zille, the Federal Chairperson of the Democratic Alliance, to discuss the implications of the election results. During the interview, Zille emphasized that the ANC falling below the 50% mark was inevitable, as projected by pre-election polls. She reassured the international community not to be alarmed by this outcome and stressed the importance of forming a stable coalition to govern in place of the ANC's overall majority. Zille highlighted the Democratic Alliance's (DA) objectives of retaining the Western Cape, reducing the ANC's grip on provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, and exploring coalition opportunities in other regions. Nomvula Mokonyane, the ANC's First Deputy Secretary-General, expressed hope amidst the preliminary results, noting the party's unexpected gains in historically challenging constituencies. She underscored the necessity of evaluating the overall election program and percentages before drawing conclusions about the ANC's future. The conversation delved into the potential scenarios where President Ramaphosa's leadership within the ANC could be questioned if the party fails to secure a majority. Mokonyane affirmed Ramaphosa's position and credited his campaign efforts for the party's performance across diverse constituencies. As the discussion turned to potential coalitions, Zille and Mokonyane highlighted the importance of assessing the complete electoral landscape before engaging in coalition talks. Both parties acknowledged the complexity of forming alliances given the fragmented election results. To provide insight into the electorate's decisions, Godfrey Mutizwa analyzed the outcomes, emphasizing the ANC's internal fragmentation reflected in various offshoot parties' performances. He critiqued new black parties' inability to sway voters away from the ANC and highlighted the Democratic Alliance's challenge in navigating national issues such as power cuts and corruption. Mutizwa also discussed the market's reaction to the election results, pointing out the uncertainty surrounding potential coalition formations and its impact on South African bonds and the rand's value. Overall, South Africa's 2024 elections have set the stage for a potential shift in political dynamics, challenging the ANC's long-standing dominance and paving the way for intricate coalition negotiations.