Unpacking Uganda's public debt and revenue performance

Uganda's economic landscape is facing a daunting challenge as the country grapples with a mounting public debt crisis. In a recent interview with Fred Muhumuza, Director of the Economic Forum at Makerere University Business School, the vicious cycle of debt fuelling debt was highlighted, shedding light on the dire situation facing not only Uganda but also neighboring nations in the East African Community (EAC). Muhumuza pointed out that the primary driver of debt in Uganda is debt itself, as the country finds itself in a situation where borrowing is necessary to service existing debts. By the end of the last financial year, Uganda had accumulated a significant domestic debt of about 15 trillion Ugandan shillings, with a substantial portion of it being channeled back into debt servicing. Approximately 46 percent of the current budget is allocated to debt servicing, leaving little room for critical government expenditures like infrastructure development. The looming shadow of debt has forced Uganda to shift its focus from capital development to recurrent spending, further exacerbating the country's financial woes. The challenge of addressing the rising debt levels in Uganda is multi-faceted and complex. One proposed solution is a rationalization of the government, which includes scaling down the size of government and eliminating duplication within government agencies. Additionally, there have been discussions on increasing domestic revenues by reevaluating government priorities and exploring ways to reduce unnecessary expenditures. However, these strategies require a significant political commitment to implement unpopular but necessary reforms. Uganda's credit rating has been adversely impacted by its escalating debt levels, with recent downgrades hindering its ability to access international capital markets. This has forced the country to rely more on domestic borrowing, leading to higher interest rates and limited access to traditional financial markets. When compared to other regional markets, Uganda's debt position is precarious, with high debt to GDP ratios and a significant portion of government revenue going towards debt servicing. The situation mirrors that of neighboring countries like Kenya, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, highlighting a broader regional debt crisis. To mitigate the risks associated with rising public debt, Uganda must diversify its revenue sources and enhance fiscal management. Strategies to achieve this include rethinking government priorities, combating corruption, addressing arrears to the private sector, and enhancing customs revenue collection. Furthermore, a structural reform of the government, including a review of security spending, wage rates, and government size, is imperative to stabilize the economy and foster sustainable growth. Despite the daunting challenges ahead, Uganda must muster the political will to implement critical reforms to steer the country towards economic stability and prosperity.