Can Nigeria sustain non-oil export trajectory in Q4’24?

Stakeholders are optimistic about Nigeria's ability to sustain and grow its non-oil export industry in the fourth quarter of 2024, despite facing challenges and emerging headwinds. The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has highlighted that a weak Naira presents an opportunity for the country to boost export trade. This sentiment was echoed by Bamidele Ayemibo, the CEO of 3T Impex Consulting, who emphasized the potential for increased export volumes in the coming months. Looking at the data from 2023 and the first half of 2024, Nigeria recorded non-oil export earnings of $4.5 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively. With the final quarter typically experiencing a surge in export activities due to the harvest season, experts predict a further increase. Ayemibo shared his belief that Nigeria could potentially reach $5.7 to $6 billion in non-oil export earnings by the end of 2024. One of the key factors driving this growth is Nigeria's participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area under the Guided Trade Initiative. This initiative has opened up new opportunities for trade within the continent, paving the way for increased export volumes. However, Ayemibo stressed the importance of strategic leadership from the government to drive the sector's growth effectively. He called for a unified vision from top government officials, including the President, to support and guide the export industry towards diversification. While lauding the efforts of the National Coordinating Office and NEPC in implementing trade initiatives, Ayemibo emphasized the need for continued commitment and action to facilitate actual trade transactions. Addressing the issue of export complaints and trade transparency, Ayemibo acknowledged the government's efforts in introducing dedicated centers and the National Single Window. These measures aim to streamline processes and reduce bottlenecks in export activities. However, Ayemibo pointed out that more focus is needed on identifying key export products and increasing production and export volumes. He highlighted the importance of growing the number of exporters to drive significant growth in Nigeria's non-oil export sector. To achieve this, Ayemibo recommended providing incentives to attract new businesses to the export market. He specifically mentioned the need to reduce high freight costs and ensure timely payment of export expansion grants to encourage more entrants. By incentivizing new exporters and addressing key challenges, Nigeria can enhance its export competitiveness and expand its presence in global markets. As the country navigates the evolving trade landscape, strategic policies and proactive leadership will be vital in propelling Nigeria's non-oil exports to new heights. The potential for a robust export industry in Q4'24 remains promising, contingent upon sustained efforts and support from the government and stakeholders.