SBM: Africa country instability risk index at 45.4% in 2024

The latest data from the SBM Intelligence Africa Country Instability Risk index reveals that Sub-Saharan Africa has recorded an average index of 45.4% this year. The comprehensive report surveyed 48 countries in the region, with 31 countries showing improved performance while the remaining countries experienced deterioration. The Senior Analyst at SBM Intelligence, Confidence MacHarry, delved into the key factors contributing to the instability in the region, including political, economic, and social issues. From a political perspective, the report highlighted South Africa's continued dominance in terms of stability, with Central Africa showing improvements and Eastern Africa facing challenges. Countries like Angola demonstrated economic progress, but historically stable economies like Mauritius and Seychelles experienced slowdowns in performance. In terms of climate impact, Southern Africa faced a significant decrease in temperature, albeit still showing improvement compared to other regions. Economically, inflation remained a major concern across Central, West, and Southern Africa. Angola, despite improvements in its economy such as enhanced oil output, continues to grapple with high inflation at 27%. The IMF forecasts signaled positive growth for Angola, but inflation has been a major driver affecting the country's overall score. The social issues highlighted in the report focused on leadership stability, geopolitical factors, and historical political unrest. Countries with a history of coups were more likely to experience political instability, with the Western Sahel region prone to recurring coup rumors. Social unrest, particularly manifested through youth protests and arrests, was noted in countries like Nigeria and other low-income nations across the region. In a brief but insightful discussion, Confidence MacHarry emphasized the importance of historical context in predicting political stability and the impact of social factors such as youth unrest and gerontocracy on the region's overall risk index. While time constraints limited the in-depth analysis during the interview, the report underscores the multifaceted nature of instability in Sub-Saharan Africa. As Sub-Saharan Africa navigates the complexities of political, economic, and social challenges, the need for proactive measures to address key issues raised in the SBM Intelligence report becomes critical. The report serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders seeking a comprehensive understanding of the region's instability landscape in 2024.