Nedbank’s 2025 economic outlook for South Africa

Nedbank's fourth-quarter local market outlook has projected that South Africa's economy could surpass 3.5 percent annual growth by 2027 due to significant structural changes. The forecast comes as inflation is anticipated to ease, creating room for potential rate cuts, and the country faces challenges in its fiscal position. Reezwana Sumad, Senior Research Analyst at Nedbank CIB, discussed these projections with CNBC Africa, shedding light on the key drivers behind the optimistic outlook and the potential risks involved. Sumad highlighted several factors contributing to the potential growth, including improved electricity supply, stabilization in rail and logistics, and a positive shift in the political landscape. The interview delved into the details of each driver, assessing the timing, sustainability, challenges, and uncertainties involved. Sumad acknowledged the risks associated with each aspect but remained cautiously optimistic about the overall trajectory. The conversation also touched upon monetary policy, inflation forecasts, and the implications of global dynamics on South Africa's economic outlook. Sumad emphasized the importance of monitoring fuel prices, trade tariffs, and oil price movements, as they could significantly impact inflation forecasts and influence the decisions of the South African Reserve Bank. Regarding fiscal issues, Sumad noted that while the country faces a notable revenue shortfall and escalating expenditures, there have been efforts to exercise better control over spending. National Treasury's focus on curbing leakages and wastages was highlighted as a positive development in fiscal management. Sumad also discussed the implications of the government's debt and fiscal deficit projections on South Africa's credit ratings and investor confidence. Despite the challenges posed by the higher deficit and increased debt levels, Sumad expressed confidence in National Treasury's credibility and the potential for a more consolidatory fiscal path in the future. Overall, the interview underscored the intricate balance between structural reforms, fiscal policy credibility, and economic growth prospects in South Africa, offering insights into the evolving landscape of the country's economy.