Oxford Economics: Cost of living, unemployment, governance dominant voters' concerns

As Ghana gears up for the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections this weekend, voters are grappling with dominant concerns such as the cost of living, youth unemployment, chronic power outages, and dissatisfaction. Oxford Economics Africa has shed light on these pressing issues, emphasizing that while the manifestos of the main contenders prioritize domestic issues, they contain only general statements on foreign policy matters. Jervin Naidoo, a Political Analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, provided valuable insights into the likely scenarios and implications of the upcoming elections. Analyzing the two main candidates, Vice President Mahamud Bawumia from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and former President John Dramani Mahama representing the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Naidoo highlighted their strengths and weaknesses. Bawumia, considered a technocrat with a strong economic background, brings expertise to the table but lacks charisma. On the other hand, Mahama's dynamism and relatability make him a favorable candidate, especially considering Ghana's historical trend of not granting more than two consecutive terms to any party. Delving deeper into the manifestos, Naidoo outlined the contrasting economic approaches of the NDC and the NPP. The NDC, a center-left party, focuses on increased government spending and social programs, whereas the NPP, a center-right party, promotes private sector growth through reduced regulation and support. Despite the differing strategies, Oxford Economics' proprietary modeling indicates a minimal difference in economic performance under both parties, forecasting a modest growth rate of 4.6% under the NDC and 4.5% under the NPP. In response to the voters' expectations, Naidoo noted that the NDC's emphasis on addressing people's problems aligns well with the populace's concerns regarding the cost of living, youth unemployment, and power outages. The NDC's commitment to enhancing the social safety net, reducing taxes, and potentially lowering VAT on essential items resonates strongly with Ghanaian voters seeking immediate relief from economic challenges. Youth unemployment and job creation emerge as key focal points in both manifestos, with an emphasis on supporting the private sector for sustainable employment opportunities. While the NDC prioritizes government-led initiatives and education for job creation, the NPP's agenda leans towards creating an enabling business environment by reducing red tape, drawing inspiration from successful models like Rwanda. The NPP's focus on stimulating private sector growth through regulatory ease and incentivizing investments positions them as a strong contender in addressing youth unemployment. As Ghanaian voters anticipate the upcoming elections, the choice between the NDC and the NPP reflects a dual narrative of immediate relief versus long-term economic strategies. While both parties present viable solutions to the country's pressing issues, the sentiment on the ground suggests a yearning for change and a desire for impactful policies that alleviate current hardships. With the economic outlook playing a crucial role in shaping voter preferences, the outcome of the elections remains pivotal for Ghana's future trajectory.