Tony Blair Institute raises red flag over Sahel conflict

As sporadic conflict and political tensions continue to simmer in the Sahel region, concerns over Africa's stability are on the rise. Experts warn that if left unchecked, the situation could have massive spillover effects, prompting global powers to take notice. This sentiment was echoed by Rishon Chimboza, Special Advisor at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, following U.S. President Joe Biden's recent visit to Angola. Chimboza highlighted the major security challenge facing the continent, particularly in the Sahel region. He emphasized the need for the U.S. to take a strong interest in the region, citing the prevalence of military juntas and the loss of a significant U.S. base in Niger as key concerns. The instability in the Sahel not only poses a threat to the region but also creates a breeding ground for elements that could jeopardize U.S. interests. Moreover, Chimboza pointed out the evolving dynamics of power in Africa, emphasizing the emergence of new middle powers from regions like Southeast Asia, the Gulf, and South America. These countries are not only expanding their influence but also presenting the U.S. with potential allies in addressing security challenges in the Sahel. In terms of engagement, Chimboza stressed the importance of a collaborative approach, advocating for a philosophy of neutral ground for re-engagement within the Sahel. He suggested leveraging organizations like ECOWAS to exert influence and foster partnerships that can lead to sustainable solutions. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change also called for a strategic reevaluation of U.S. involvement in the region, urging a philosophy of engagement that goes beyond direct interactions with regimes. By fostering alliances and promoting dialogue, the U.S. can play a pivotal role in mitigating the security threats in the Sahel. Looking beyond security concerns, Chimboza discussed the economic implications of engaging with the U.S., particularly under the new administration. He emphasized the importance of leveraging existing trade programs like AGOA and exploring new avenues for economic cooperation. Highlighting the expiration of AGOA in 2025, Chimboza outlined opportunities for African leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade agreements and strategic investments. He noted the significance of aligning Africa's economic trajectory with the priorities of the U.S. administration, emphasizing areas such as technology, value-added exports, and job creation. Chimboza pointed out the potential for technology to drive economic transformation in Africa, citing examples in agriculture production and service delivery. He underscored the need for a forward-thinking approach that aligns with the continent's evolving needs and aspirations. In conclusion, the interview shed light on the complex interplay between security challenges in the Sahel region and economic opportunities for Africa. As global powers like the U.S. seek to navigate these issues, strategic collaboration and proactive engagement are key to fostering stability and prosperity in the region.