RMB: Ghana, Egypt, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia to grow above 4% in 2025

Rand Merchant Bank in its latest report predicts that Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia will experience growth rates above 4% in 2025. The report also highlights the potential impact of lower oil prices on major producers like Angola and Nigeria. In the Forex market, the US dollar is expected to remain strong, but uncertainty looms over emerging markets due to ongoing tariff negotiations. Oyinkansola Samuel, a Research Analyst at RMB, joined CNBC Africa to discuss the insights from the report. Samuel shed light on Nigeria's economic outlook, emphasizing the implications of oil production costs and current oil prices on the country's revenue mobilization and fiscal position. With the cost of oil production exceeding $40 per barrel, Nigeria faces challenges as it navigates potential fluctuations in crude oil prices. Samuel mentioned the importance of monitoring US shale production and OPEC's response to maintain stability in oil prices. Despite the fiscal deficit projections, Samuel expressed confidence in Nigeria's ability to manage its fiscal policies and leverage remittance flows to support the economy. Shifting focus to Ghana, Samuel discussed the country's economic performance in 2024 and the ongoing IMF program. Ghana's growth momentum, fueled by the mining sector, is expected to continue in 2025. While inflation targets remain a concern, Samuel acknowledged Ghana's efforts to align with IMF recommendations. The discussion also touched on Ghana's currency defense strategies and the anticipated monetary policy stance for the year. As Ghana strives to regain investor confidence post-restructuring efforts, Samuel highlighted a cautious optimism among investors. Lastly, the conversation turned to the global economic landscape and the potential inflationary impact of trade tensions and tariff threats. Samuel emphasized the need for African nations to monitor developments closely and brace for potential challenges in the future. Overall, the insights shared by Oyinkansola Samuel provide a nuanced perspective on the economic trajectories of Nigeria and Ghana amidst global uncertainties.