Will crop production remain top contributor to Nigeria’s GDP?

Nigeria's real GDP saw a growth of 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of the year, with crop production, trade, and telecommunication and information services leading the pack as the top contributors. Chike Nwagwu, Director at Novus Agro, shared valuable insights on unpacking the data, strategies to curb inflation, and ways to boost food-producing zones in the country. The juxtaposition of GDP data and the rebased CPI data sparked discussions around key economic indicators and the need for strategic measures to address inflation concerns. Nwagwu highlighted the discrepancy between nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth, pointing out the impact of inflation on the economy. He raised questions about the inflationary figures used to calculate GDP, emphasizing the importance of understanding the calculation models, especially with the rebase considerations. The nuances in data interpretation shed light on the complexities of economic analysis and policy formulation. The introduction of special indices in the rebased CPI data, including farm produce, energy, and imported food indices, aimed to provide clarity on inflation measures. Nwagwu, however, emphasized the need for tangible actions beyond statistical figures to address economic challenges. He underscored the significance of complementing monetary policies with effective fiscal measures to tackle structural issues and drive sustainable growth. Looking ahead, Nwagwu discussed the country's positioning for the upcoming year, particularly in achieving the goal of all-year-round farming. He expressed concerns about the lack of progress in preparedness for fluctuating price movements and highlighted the potential price spikes during lean months. The conversation delved into the importance of boosting dry season farming and tackling post-harvest losses to enhance food security and market stability. When addressing post-harvest management strategies, Nwagwu emphasized the multidisciplinary approach required to integrate technology and optimal practices. He stressed the need to address energy costs, enhance processing techniques, and leverage existing investments to minimize post-harvest losses effectively. By improving efficiencies in the agricultural value chain, Nigeria could significantly reduce wastage and enhance productivity. As the dialogue concluded, the discussion touched upon the impact of government interventions, such as the 150-day duty-free window introduced last year. Nwagwu acknowledged the challenges associated with policy implementation and emphasized the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of such measures to drive sustainable economic growth and development. In navigating Nigeria's economic landscape, collaborations across sectors, informed policy decisions, and strategic investments in agriculture and technology will play a crucial role in driving prosperity and stability. With a keen focus on addressing inflation concerns, enhancing agricultural productivity, and optimizing post-harvest management, Nigeria can harness its economic potential and chart a path towards sustainable growth and development.