The veterans playbook in ‘Trumpian’ world

As the clock ticks on President Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for the world, announced on April 9, financial markets are grappling with uncertainty and volatility. The initial Rose Garden announcement sent shockwaves through global markets, disrupting the established economic ecosystem. In this era of economic rewiring, investors and policymakers are seeking guidance on navigating the challenging landscape. To shed light on the current situation, CNBC Africa spoke with Adrian Saville, Professor of Economics, Finance & Strategy at GIBS Business School. Saville provided insights on the impact of recent decisions and the path forward for financial markets amidst geopolitical upheavals. One of the key discussions revolved around the recent decision by South Africa's National Treasury to backtrack on a proposed VAT increase. Saville described this move as a 'fumble,' attributing it to the challenges of coalition governments. He highlighted the adverse effects of policy uncertainty and expressed disappointment in the avoidable nature of the situation. The discussion then turned to the credibility of the Finance Minister in light of the budget debacle. Saville pointed out that reversing policy decisions can erode credibility and raise questions about future stability. He emphasized the importance of consistency in fiscal and monetary policies to maintain investor confidence. The conversation delved into the global implications of President Trump's tariff policies and the ensuing economic uncertainty. Saville noted that Trump's unpredictable approach to policymaking has heightened global anxiety, comparable to past periods of financial crises. He criticized Trump's tariff strategies, citing a fundamental misunderstanding of economic principles. Saville advised prudent diversification as a strategy to mitigate risks in the current market environment. The discussion also addressed Trump's claims of trade imbalances and the flaws in his assessment of capital flows. Saville emphasized the complexity of economic relationships and cautioned against simplistic viewpoints in international trade. He underscored the need for adaptability and strategic positioning to navigate ongoing uncertainties in the global economy. Looking ahead, Saville warned of heightened political and economic turbulence in the coming years, driven by changing governmental dynamics worldwide. He urged readiness for a bumpy road ahead and emphasized the importance of preparation in the face of unprecedented challenges. Overall, Saville's insights provided a roadmap for investors and policymakers to navigate the complex 'Trumpian' world with caution and foresight.