<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="573" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-820x573.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428666" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-820x573.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-768x537.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-1536x1074.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ILJVS72EHJMUJH4IPZQ6AU4SIY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">South Africa&#8217;s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana gestures after attending a press conference ahead of Godongwana&#8217;s medium-term budget policy statement in Cape Town, South Africa, November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Esa Alexander</figcaption></figure>



CAPE TOWN, Nov 1 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s finance minister will propose tax measures next year to raise additional revenue, a mid-term budget review said on Wednesday, as the National Treasury projected wider budget deficits and higher debt over the next three years.



A major constraint on South Africa&#8217;s economic growth potential in the last decade has been rolling power cuts as utility Eskom struggles with breakdowns at its coal-fired power plants. Underperformance at state-owned logistics company Transnet has also weighed on growth.



This, coupled with a significant drop in mining revenue as commodity prices fall, has resulted in lower tax receipts. Revenue collections in the current 2023/24 fiscal year were projected to be 56.8 billion rand ($3.04 billion) below estimates in the main February budget, the treasury said.



The treasury said it remained committed to stabilise public finances. This will be achieved through spending reductions, moderate tax revenue measures and efficiency measures across the government &#8211; including the reconfiguration of government that would involve the merging or closure of public entities.



&#8220;Given the extent of fiscal consolidation required, the Minister of Finance will propose tax measures to raise additional revenue of 15 billion rand in 2024/25 in the 2024 budget,&#8221; the treasury said.



The treasury did not elaborate on the specific measures, but Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said in his budget speech that &#8220;our most effective way of funding government is through an efficient tax administration and by broadening the tax base&#8221;.



South Africa&#8217;s 2023 economic growth is forecast at 0.8% from 0.9% seen in February. The economy grew by 1.9% in 2022.



A consolidated budget deficit of 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected in 2023/24, wider than a 4.0% deficit seen in February. Next year the treasury predicts a deficit of 4.6% of GDP and the following year 4.2% of GDP, wider than the 3.8% and 3.2% seen in February.



South Africa&#8217;s gross debt is expected to rise to 6.52 trillion rand in 2026/27 from 5.24 trillion rand in 2023/24. As a percent of GDP, gross debt is seen stabilising at 77.7% of GDP in 2025/26 compared with 73.6% of GDP in the same year seen in February.



($1 = 18.7143 rand) 



(Reporting by Wendell Roelf in Cape Town, and Kopano Gumbi, Anait Miridzhanian and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo in Pretoria; Additional reporting by Nellie Peyton, Bhargav Acharya and Tannur Anders in Johannesburg; Editing by Alexander Winning)

South Africa issues medium-term budget policy statement

South Africa plans tax measures to boost revenue, debt seen rising

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="350" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400879" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1040865674-612x612-1-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stock market report. 3d illustration</figcaption></figure>



Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Trading across most emerging markets was tepid on Wednesday, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of the highly-anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, as they assessed factory activity data from local economies.



MSCI&#8217;s index tracking EM stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was unchanged, while a basket of developing markets currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;edged down 0.1% by 0902 GMT.



Economists widely expect the Fed to leave benchmark borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% and 5.5% at its decision due at 1800 GMT.



Following a recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields that pressured emerging markets stocks and currencies in October, investors are especially keen on the central bank&#8217;s outlook.



&#8220;With markets fully priced for an unchanged rate decision and no updated economic projections, all eyes will be on Powell&#8217;s forward guidance,&#8221; Danske Bank analysts wrote in a note.



Disappointing October manufacturing activity data across emerging economies also tempered risk sentiment.



Indian stocks .NSEI dipped 0.4% and the rupee INR= was flat after data showed October manufacturing growth slowed for a second straight month in October as demand eased.



&#8220;We think that the sector will continue to slow over the coming months as the impact of higher policy rates continues to be felt and external demand weakens,&#8221; said Thamashi De Silva, assistant India economist at Capital Economics.



Turkey&#8217;s lira TRYTOM=D4 traded at 28.3 to the dollar after domestic factory activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in October as firms struggled to secure new business and scaled back production.



The domestic BIST 100 index .XU100 shed 0.2%, with banks .XBANK slipping 0.2% after Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said the country will move to inflation-adjusted accounting, but financial institutions may be excluded from the practice.



Meanwhile, South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;slipped 0.4% ahead of the local Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in parliament, which is due at 1200 GMT.



China&#8217;s blue-chip index .CSI300 and Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index .HSI closed the session flat, after latest private survey added to Tuesday&#8217;s data which renewed concerns over the country&#8217;s sprawling manufacturing sector.



In central and eastern Europe, most currencies traded tepidly against the euro, as markets in Poland and Hungary were closed on account of a public holiday.



Czech&#8217;s crown EURCZK= weakened 0.2% after a survey showed factory activity edged up to 42 from the month before, but stayed in contraction territory for the 17th month.



(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K)

Stock market report. 3d illustration

Investors kick off Nov on caution ahead of Fed policy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="524" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-820x524.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428654" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-820x524.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-300x192.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-141x90.jpg 141w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-768x491.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-1536x982.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FCJC7HET7ZIJXIEW4RC4SMQKRY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Norah Nasimiyu works on denim trousers for export at the United Aryan Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory, operating under The U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Ruaraka district of Nairobi, Kenya October 26, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Norah Nasimiyu knows the future of Kenya&#8217;s garment trade, which has employed her for 13 years and helped her put six children through school and university, lies in the hands of the U.S. Congress.



And like others, she is worried.



U.S. officials visiting South Africa this week to meet African trade ministers will face calls to reauthorise the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2023/the-u-s-african-growth-and-opportunity-act-agoa/">African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)</a> which expires in 2025.



Despite longstanding bipartisan support from lawmakers, who view Washington&#8217;s flagship African trade initiative as critical to taking on China, deep dysfunction on Capitol Hill and divisions over the need for updates have raised doubts.



Apparel companies and industry insiders warn that Africa risks a once-in-a-generation shift away from Chinese manufacturing passing it by, with an estimated 240,000 to 290,000 jobs such as Nasimiyu&#8217;s under threat.



&#8220;We are praying that they extend,&#8221; the single mother said during a break from stitching Levi&#8217;s jeans at a Nairobi factory. &#8220;It is very hard to get a job here in Kenya.&#8221;



Apparel has been the standout success story of AGOA, which launched in 2000 to help develop African economies and foster democracy.



African apparel exports under the programme reached nearly $1.4 billion last year, double the amount pre-AGOA.



Pankaj Bedi, chairman of UAL and Norah Nasimiyu&#8217;s employer, said AGOA&#8217;s duty free access to the world&#8217;s biggest consumer market is the reason his company &#8211; Kenya&#8217;s largest garment producer &#8211; exists.



&#8220;Almost 100% of what we are exporting goes to the U.S.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bypassing-africa">BYPASSING AFRICA</h2>



Industry insiders and policymakers see a chance to build on that success as companies reduce their dependence on China in the wake of the pandemic and subsequent supply chain headaches.



&#8220;We&#8217;ve been struck by how open the opportunity is now for us,&#8221; South African Trade Minister Ebrahim Patel said last week.



Nearly 80% of companies polled in a July survey by the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) planned to reduce Chinese sourcing over the next two years.



&#8220;Many of them talk about Africa,&#8221; said Stephen Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association.



Capturing even a fraction of that business could prove transformative for Africa. But companies need clarity, he said, adding: &#8220;If it is not renewed until two years from now, these current investment decisions are going to bypass Africa&#8221;.



That lack of clarity is not only hitting new investments.



The USFIA survey found that 45% of respondents had already reduced sourcing from AGOA countries over renewal uncertainty, while another 45% plan to cut sourcing from the continent if there is no reauthorisation by June 2024.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-collapse">&#8216;COLLAPSE&#8217;</h2>



African governments are pushing for a similar reauthorisation to the 10-year AGOA extension approved by Congress in 2015 with bipartisan support, ideally before an expected U.S. election year pause on new trade legislation.



But that is looking increasingly unlikely.



&#8220;There&#8217;s a high level of uncertainty about what happens and the context keeps shifting,&#8221; said Michael Walsh, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.



Amid deepening global polarisation, Moscow, Beijing and the West are all leveraging trade and economic ties as they step up efforts to court African governments.



More than a dozen U.S. senators are pushing for a quick AGOA renewal arguing the need to &#8220;counter the malign influence of China, Russia, and other foreign actors&#8221;.



But the House of Representatives, paralysed for weeks by factional fighting over its speakership, faces a daunting list of must-pass legislation.



And there is another obstacle to a quick reauthorisation, namely a well-intentioned desire to improve AGOA.



The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) in a report earlier this year highlighted major shortcomings.



More than 80% of duty-free non-petroleum AGOA exports, for example, came from South Africa, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar and Ethiopia.



&#8220;Some countries have benefited greatly from AGOA, but the majority have not,&#8221; Constance Hamilton, the Biden administration&#8217;s top trade official for Africa, said last week, calling for Congress to consider changes that would &#8220;make the programme more impactful&#8221;.



Such talk worries apparel company executives, who point to the troubled fate of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) &#8211; the largest and oldest U.S. trade preference programme.



Congress failed to renew GSP before it expired at the end of 2020 and its reauthorisation remains bogged down in gridlock between the House and Senate over eligibility requirement changes.



Attempts to change AGOA risk creating a similar impasse, said Greg Poole, Senior Advisor for Global Sourcing at clothing company The Children&#8217;s Place&nbsp;PLCE.O.



&#8220;If we try to radically change AGOA, it&#8217;s going to get stalled out. And if it gets stalled out, it&#8217;s going to follow the path of GSP,&#8221; he said.



There is little doubt what would happen in AGOA&#8217;s absence.



The USITC report said AGOA benefits &#8220;appear to be essential for &#8230; countries to maintain their apparel exports to the United States&#8221;.



It pointed to a temporary suspension of Madagascar&#8217;s AGOA benefits in 2009, which cost it 50,000 to 100,000 jobs, while Ethiopia lost 100,000 jobs when it was suspended last year.



In Kenya, UAL Chairman Bedi remains hopeful, but knows how things will play out if AGOA evaporates.



&#8220;All the companies which are here will be gone for sure, including mine &#8230; The industry will collapse.&#8221;



FACTBOX-The U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2023/the-u-s-african-growth-and-opportunity-act-agoa/">Read full story</a>



(Reporting by Joe Bavier in Johannesburg and Duncan Miriri in Nairobi; Editing by Alexander Smith)

Norah Nasimiyu works on denim trousers for export at the United Aryan EPZ factory in Ruaraka district of Nairobi

African apparel industry’s future hangs on a U.S. thread

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="500" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-820x500.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428647" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-820x500.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-300x183.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-148x90.jpg 148w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-768x468.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-1536x936.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OEX3CTZGVVK5JCYM3ZTGGFW43A-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kenyan workers check clothes made for export at the United Aryan Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory, operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Ruaraka district of Nairobi, Kenya October 26, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya</figcaption></figure>



Nov 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa will host the annual African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Forum in Johannesburg from Nov 2-4 to discuss the United States&#8217; flagship trade programme for the continent.



Here are some key facts about AGOA:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-is-agoa">WHAT IS AGOA?</h2>



The African Growth and Opportunity Act is a U.S. trade initiative passed in 2000 under former President Bill Clinton to deepen trade ties with Sub-Saharan Africa and help African countries develop their economies.



AGOA provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for most agricultural and manufactured products exported by eligible African countries.



It has been renewed twice and is due to expire in September 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-who-benefits">WHO BENEFITS?</h2>



About 35 African countries are eligible. Countries can lose and regain eligibility based on criteria including economic policies and protection of human rights.



A number of countries including Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar and Ethiopia have successfully used AGOA to boost exports to the U.S. and create jobs, especially in textiles.



One study estimated that 350,000 direct jobs were created due to AGOA from 2001 to 2011.



The United States benefits by furthering its interests on the continent. Countries that undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests are not eligible for AGOA.



U.S. lawmakers view it as an important soft power tool, particularly as a counter to Chinese influence.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-do-critics-say">WHAT DO CRITICS SAY?</h2>



Many analysts have pointed out that AGOA is under-utilized.



Only about half the eligible countries have developed national AGOA utilization strategies, and the majority of exports come from just a few.



A U.S. government study found that more than 80% of non-petroleum exports under AGOA came from just five countries in 2021. And while the&nbsp;apparel sector&nbsp;has been the programme&#8217;s biggest success story, other industries have lagged.



Some critics say that AGOA has failed to live up to expectations. U.S. imports from AGOA beneficiaries peaked in 2008, and in 2021 accounted for only 1% of all U.S. imports.



Some analysts say that AGOA has had a positive impact, but that it needs to be updated and improved to include newer industries such as technology and digital services.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-beyond-2025">BEYOND 2025</h2>



One of the main topics likely to be in focus at the forum is whether or not to extend AGOA.



Experts say that the U.S. could renew AGOA in its current form, let it expire, or attempt to rethink and reform it.



African countries are pushing for an early 10-year extension without changes in order to reassure businesses and investors who might have concerns over AGOA&#8217;s future.



A group of U.S. senators has also backed a quick and lengthy renewal, but the office of the U.S. Trade Representative is calling for changes to make AGOA more effective.



(Reporting by Nellie Peyton; Editing by Joe Bavier and Alexander Smith)

Kenyan workers check clothes made for export at the United Aryan EPZ factory in Ruaraka district of Nairobi

FACTBOX-The U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428635" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AR3HWBTG6VMVDAMWHXJAFBNKZQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, President Joe Biden, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit Closing Session on Promoting Food Security and Food Systems Resilience, at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center, in Washington, D.C., U.S. December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday that he intends to end the participation of Gabon, Niger, Uganda and the Central African Republic in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade program.



Biden said he was taking the step because of &#8220;gross violations&#8221; of internationally recognized human rights by the Central African Republic and Uganda.



He also cited Niger and Gabon&#8217;s failure to establish or make continual progress toward the protection of political pluralism and the rule of law.



&#8220;Despite intensive engagement between the United States and the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger, and Uganda, these countries have failed to address United States concerns about their non-compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria,&#8221; Biden said in a letter to the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.



Biden said he intends to terminate the designation of these countries as beneficiary sub-Saharan African countries under the AGOA, effective Jan. 1, 2024.



He said he will continue to assess whether they meet the program&#8217;s eligibility requirements.



Launched in 2000, AGOA grants exports from qualifying countries duty-free access to the U.S. market. It is set to expire in September 2025, but discussions are already under way over whether to extend it and for how long.



African governments and industry groups are pushing for an early 10-year extension without changes in order to reassure business and new investors who might have concerns over AGOA&#8217;s future.



(Reporting by Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: U.S President Joe Biden participates in the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington

US to evict Gabon, Niger, Uganda and Central African Republic from trade program

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428631" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ABAZWTPJHJPOVPZE2S7EGTK244-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The North Korean flag flutters at the North Korea consular office in Dandong, Liaoning province, China April 20, 2021. Picture taken April 20, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang</figcaption></figure>



SEOUL, Oct 31 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;North Korea&#8217;s recent closing of its diplomatic missions in Angola and Uganda was a sign that the reclusive country is struggling to make money overseas because of international sanctions, South Korea&#8217;s unification ministry said on Tuesday.



Both Angola and Uganda have forged friendly ties with North Korea since the 1970s, maintaining military cooperation and providing rare sources of foreign currency such as statue-building projects.



But on Monday, Pyongyang&#8217;s state media outlet KCNA said its ambassadors paid &#8220;farewell&#8221; visits to Angolan and Ugandan leaders last week, and local media in both African countries reported the shutdown of the North&#8217;s embassies there.



Seoul&#8217;s unification ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said the pullout reflected the impact of international sanctions aimed at curbing funding for the North&#8217;s nuclear and missile programs.



&#8220;They appear to be withdrawing as their foreign currency earning business has stumbled due to the international community&#8217;s strengthening of sanctions, making it difficult to maintain the embassies any longer,&#8221; the ministry said in a statement. &#8220;This can be a sign of North Korea&#8217;s difficult economic situation, where it is difficult to maintain even minimal diplomatic relations with traditionally friendly countries.&#8221;



North Korea has formal relations with 159 countries, but had 53 diplomatic missions overseas, including three consulates and three representative offices, until it pulled out of Angola and Uganda, according to the ministry.



Japan&#8217;s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported last week, citing unnamed sources, that North Korea was planning to shut down at least 10 diplomatic missions, including a consulate in Hong Kong, largely because of economic difficulties.



(Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Additional reporting by Hyunsu Yim; Editing by Gerry Doyle)

The North Korean flag flutters at the North Korea consular office in Dandong

North Korea’s closure of Africa embassies a sign of economic hardships – South’s ministry

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428627" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Britains-King-Charles-begins-Kenya-visit-steeped-in-painful-colonial-history-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: King Charles III stands by the logo of &#8220;The Prince&#8217;s Trust&#8221; as he welcomes guests during a reception for African business leaders, at the Garrison Chapel, Chapel Barracks, in London, Britain on October 18, 2023. ADRIAN DENNIS/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 31 (Reuters) &#8211; Britain&#8217;s King Charles begins a four-day state visit to Kenya on Tuesday, his first to a former colony, during which he plans to acknowledge &#8220;painful aspects&#8221; of a shared history that included almost seven decades of colonial rule.



Accompanied by Queen Camilla, Charles arrived in the East African country overnight and will be received by Kenyan President William Ruto in the capital Nairobi on Tuesday morning.



Buckingham Palace says the visit is a reflection of the two countries&#8217; close cooperation on economic development, climate change and security issues.



Charles plans to meet entrepreneurs from Kenya&#8217;s bustling tech scene and tour wildlife facilities. He and Camilla will also travel to the southeastern port city of Mombassa.



Many Kenyans, however, are most focused on what Charles will say about colonial-era abuses, including torture, killings and widespread expropriation of land, much of which still belongs to British nationals and companies.



The most notorious period of British rule came near the end, during the 1952-1960 Mau Mau revolt in central Kenya. The Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) has estimated 90,000 Kenyans were killed or maimed and 160,000 detained during the uprising.



The UK government has previously expressed regret for abuses during this period, known by Kenyans as &#8220;the emergency&#8221;, and agreed to an out-of-court settlement of almost 20 million pounds in 2013.



Charles and Camilla will tour a new national history museum, visit the site where independence was declared in 1963 and lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior.



&#8220;His Majesty will take time during the visit to deepen his understanding of the wrongs suffered in this period by the people of Kenya,&#8221; Buckingham Palace said in a statement.



REPARATIONS



Charles&#8217; visit comes at a time when some former colonies are re-evaluating their ties to the monarchy and demanding that Britian do more to reckon with its colonial past.



In 2021, Barbados ditched Queen Elizabeth as head of state to become a republic, and Jamaica has signaled it may do the same.



Charles, then still the heir to the throne, surprised many at last year&#8217;s summit of the Commonwealth, a voluntary association of countries that evolved from the British Empire, by acknowledging slavery&#8217;s role in the organisation&#8217;s roots.



Many citizens of former British colonies want Charles to go further by directly apologising and endorsing reparations.



In Kenya, those include leaders from the Nandi people, whose leader Koitalel Arap Samoie led a decade-long rebellion until he was assassinated by a British colonel in 1905. In the ensuing years, the British confiscated most of their land and cattle.



Samoie&#8217;s great-grandson Kipchoge araap Chomu credited the British with contributions to Kenya like education and public health systems but said historical injustices must be remedied.



&#8220;We have to demand public apology from the government of the British because of the atrocities they meted on us,&#8221; he told Reuters. &#8220;After apologies, we also expect a reparation.&#8221; (Additional reporting by Aaron Ross and Hereward Holland; Writing by Hereward Holland; Editing by Aaron Ross and Michael Perry)

King Charles III meets with African business leaders at the Garrison Chapel, in London

Britain’s King Charles begins Kenya visit steeped in ‘painful’ colonial history

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428615" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A street vendor is pictured next to a campaign poster of Atiku Abubakar, leader of the People&#8217;s Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos, Nigeria, February 12, 2019. Picture taken February 12, 2019. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo&nbsp;</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s main opposition leader Atiku Abubakar said on Monday last week&#8217;s Supreme Court decision&nbsp;affirming&nbsp;President Bola Tinubu&#8217;s election win would erode trust in elections and called for changes to the electoral laws to improve transparency.



The country&#8217;s top court rejected a challenge by Atiku and Peter Obi, who came second and third in the vote, slamming the door on any legal challenge against Tinubu, who says he won fairly.



Reacting to the judgment for the first time, Atiku told reporters the court&#8217;s decision would lead to &#8220;the erosion of trust in the electoral system and our democracy&#8221;.



He criticised the judges for refusing to admit new evidence he said showed Tinubu had used a fraudulent university certificate to contest, which the president denies.



&#8220;As for me and my party this phase of our work is done. However, I am not going away,&#8221; the 76-year-old Atiku said, hinting he may not be ready to retire from active politics.



Atiku, a former vice president between 1999-2007, said Nigeria&#8217;s electoral laws should be amended, including making electronic voting mandatory and requiring a candidate for president to garner more than 50% of the vote to win.



In Nigeria, a candidate only requires a simple majority and at least 25% of the votes in three quarters of the country&#8217;s 36 states to be declared president.



The Supreme Court judgment followed a pattern seen in previous presidential elections that have been challenged in court. None of the attempts to overturn results through the courts has been successful.



(Reporting by Camillus Eboh, editing by Ed Osmond)

HJI2YRMBIRMIVPIX75IA7MESLQ-1

Nigeria’s Atiku says court ruling will erode trust in elections

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="512" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-820x512.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428611" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-820x512.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-300x187.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-144x90.jpg 144w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-768x480.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-1536x960.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/77P7UGHPCZKWLJQ75HKA6CQTBA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: European Union flags fly outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium September 19, 2019. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The European Union plans to invest 60 million euros ($63 million) in upgrading one of the Uganda&#8217;s largest hydropower plants, helping partially plug a financing gap for the country&#8217;s ageing energy infrastructure, a top diplomat said on Monday.



The Nalubaale and Kiira hydropower plant complex located at the source of River Nile at Jinja in Uganda&#8217;s east produces about 380 megawatts (MW) and is Uganda&#8217;s oldest power plant, commissioned in 1954.



South African power giant Eskom ran the plant under a 20-year concession that ended early this year, after which the government retook control.



&#8220;We&#8217;ll be investing some 60 million euros &#8230; in the rehabilitation of Kiira and Nalubaale hydropower plant in order to provide reliable energy for Uganda&#8217;s industrialisation,&#8221; Jan Sadek, the EU&#8217;s ambassador to Uganda, told a mining conference in the capital Kampala.



He did not say when the works would begin or whether the funding would be a grant or credit.



Sadek said the funding would be advanced under the EU&#8217;s global gateways strategy, which is designed to help meet the United Nations&#8217; Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.



Uganda&#8217;s energy infrastructure is underfunded and the ageing of parts of the network has caused widespread outages and sometimes breakdowns.



Uganda has an installed capacity of about 1,400 MW of power, mostly from its hydro dams, and that will rise to 2000 MW when a Chinese-built plant, Karuma, also on River Nile is commissioned this year.



($1 = 0.9459 euros)



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema Editing by George Obulutsa and Mark Potter)

FILE PHOTO: European Union flags fly outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels

EU to invest 60 mln euros in upgrading Uganda power plant

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Most emerging markets stocks edged up and currencies were muted on Monday in cautious trade ahead of a widely-anticipated interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while investors kept a wary eye on developments in the Middle East.



Following a broadly in-line inflation reading the previous week, traders expect the U.S. central bank to leave borrowing costs on hold on Wednesday, while continuing to assess possibilities of a rate hike towards the end of the year.



&#8220;A hawkish hold should be a rather neutral outcome, as it is widely expected,&#8221; said Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at Conotoxia fintech.



&#8220;The EM space might feel the pain if the U.S. economy continues to outperform and wage pressure comes in above markets&#8217; expectations.&#8221;



Asset classes in developing markets have recently come under pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar as market participants price in interest rates remaining elevated for much longer than previously expected.



MSCI&#8217;s index tracking emerging markets stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was up 0.4%, underpinned by a 0.6% gain in China&#8217;s blue-chip stocks&nbsp;.CSI300.



Investors took comfort from fresh signs that Beijing was undertaking measures to put a floor under a sliding stock market.



Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks .HSI closed the session flat, weighed down by a 9.8% loss in China Evergrande Group 3333.HK after a domestic court gave the embattled property developer a five week reprieve to come up with a deal with creditors or face liquidation.



Meanwhile, a basket of emerging markets currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;edged up 0.1% against the dollar by 0914 GMT.



Keeping a lid on gains was the war between Israel and Hamas as investors were on edge about the potential of a widening Middle East conflict and its repercussions on oil supply from the region as Israel expanded its ground offensive in Gaza.&nbsp;O/R



The Russian rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX extended its climb and traded at 93.2 to the dollar after the local central bank&#8217;s surprising key rate hike by 200 basis points to 15% on Friday.



The South African rand ZAR= added 0.5% with focus on the government&#8217;s mid-term budget statement on Wednesday for clues on the health of Africa&#8217;s most advanced economy.



Among eastern and central European currencies, the Hungarian forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;led gains against the euro, adding 0.4%, while the Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;was muted ahead of a monetary policy decision due later in the week.



Elsewhere, Pakistan&#8217;s rupee PKR= strengthened 0.6% ahead of a central bank rate decision, where economists broadly expect the bank to keep borrowing costs on hold.



(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Stocks rise, FX tepid ahead of Fed rate decision

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="520" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-820x520.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428600" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-820x520.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-300x190.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-768x487.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-1536x973.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/W7BG4FT23VOPRFT52AV3TSFQK4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kibore Cheruiyot Ngasura, 105, a member of the Talai community, which accuses the British colonial government of displacing them from their farms, pose for a picture with his sons outside his house ahead of Britain&#8217;s King Charles&#8217; and Queen Camilla&#8217;s visit to Kenya, in Tugunon village of Kericho County, Kenya October 25, 2023. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi</figcaption></figure>



KERICHO, Kenya, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;When the then-Princess Elizabeth visited Kenya in 1952, Kibore Cheruiyot Ngasura was among a group of young men chosen to sing for her at an event near Lake Victoria.



The men planned to use the occasion to petition Elizabeth to relocate their parents from a detention camp in the barren, mosquito-infested town of Gwassi, where members of the Talai clan had been held for nearly two decades on suspicion of fomenting resistance to British colonial rule.



The event never happened. Before Elizabeth could make it to Lake Victoria, word came that her father, King George VI, had died. The new queen hurried back to London.



More than 70 years later, Elizabeth&#8217;s son, King Charles, will visit Kenya this week on a state visit. And Ngasura, now about 100 years old, again has a message for the royal visitor.



&#8220;I wish to inform him that we should be compensated for the hardship that we went through,&#8221; Ngasura told Reuters outside his house, a small wooden and iron structure on a grassy hill with two lightbulbs and no running water.



Buckingham Palace has said Charles&#8217; visit, which begins on Tuesday, will acknowledge &#8220;painful aspects of the UK and Kenya&#8217;s shared history&#8221;. The British ruled for more than six decades before Kenyan won its independence in 1963.



But for some communities in western Kenya&#8217;s fertile highlands, the injustices caused by British colonisation are as much present-day realities as historical memories.



A U.N. report in 2021 said more than half a million Kenyans around the western town of Kericho suffered gross human rights violations including unlawful killings and land expropriation during British colonial rule.



The colonial administration took hundreds of square kilometres of land that communities in western Kenya had lived on for generations and handed it to British settlers. Much of it became tea plantations that today belong to multinational companies, the U.N. report said.



&#8220;Our people, most of them, are living below poverty level,&#8221; said Joel Kimetto, a representative of the Kipsigis ethnic group, of which the Talai are one of 196 clans.



&#8220;The majority of the vast fertile lands were taken by the British and our people were chased away to the native reserves where it is hilly, rocky, slopey and unproductive,&#8221; he said.



A spokesperson for the British government&#8217;s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office noted that the UK government had previously expressed regret for abuses committed during a 1952-1960 uprising in central Kenya against colonial rule.



It agreed to an out-of-court settlement in 2013 to pay almost 20 million pounds to elderly Kenyans who suffered torture and abuse during what is known by Kenyans as &#8220;the emergency&#8221; after a London court ruled the victims could sue.



“We believe the most effective way for the UK to respond to the wrongs of the past is to ensure that current and future generations learn the lessons from history, and that we continue to work together to tackle today’s challenges,” the spokesperson said in response to questions from Reuters.



The spokesperson did not address the allegations raised by the Kipsigis and Talai, which are separate from the abuses during the emergency. Buckingham Palace did not respond to a request for comment.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-no-intention-to-compensate">&#8216;NO INTENTION&#8217; TO COMPENSATE</h2>



Charles will not travel to western Kenya during his visit, which will take him to the capital Nairobi and eastern port city of Mombasa, according to a statement from the palace.



The British government has not been receptive in the past to requests by the Kipsigis and Talai to discuss compensation. In 2019, it informed the communities it had &#8220;no intention to enter any process&#8221; to resolve the claims, according to the U.N. report.



Ngasura said he was about 12-years-old &#8211; he does not know his exact birth date &#8211; in 1934 when the British rounded up around 700 Talais and forced them to march for weeks to reach Gwassi.



Following protests by the young men, he and a few dozen others were relocated in 1945 to a detention camp closer to Kericho, where they could find wives from their community.



They were finally released in 1962, but the land where they had once grazed their livestock and collected honey now belonged to British settlers and tea companies.



Ngasura was able to scrape together the money to buy a small plot from a British army captain. Today, he and his descendants who live there survive off of a half-dozen cows and some maize crops.



It is no comparison to what he knew as a child.



&#8220;We could take cows anywhere. The land was huge,&#8221; he recalled. &#8220;This land is not big enough. Otherwise we would have kept a lot of cows and grown coffee.&#8221;



(Reporting by Aaron Ross; Additional reporting by Michael Holden in London; Editing by Alison Williams)

Kenyan communities demand compensation from Britain ahead of King Charles visit

Dispossessed Kenyans demand compensation ahead of King Charles’ visit

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="535" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-820x535.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428594" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-820x535.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-300x196.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-138x90.jpg 138w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-768x501.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-1536x1002.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/I5K234HO4VOUPOJTON2S7WH5ZU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A worker prepares products at copper and silver giftware manufacturer Copperwares&#8217; workshop in Harare, Zimbabwe, August 4, 2021. Picture taken August 4, 2021. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;African countries are less likely to follow East Asia&#8217;s development model of expanding manufacturing to pull people out of poverty, according to a study that shows a declining share of factory jobs for most countries by mid-century.



The new paper released on Monday by the Center for Global Development shows there will be fewer factory workers in 2050 globally than there are now, and that even in poor countries with abundant cheap labor, manufacturing job growth will stagnate.



China may be an exception, further expanding its share of manufacturing output among 59 countries modeled in the study to 43.8% in 2050 from 30% in 2018 and 10.5% in 1975.



The study&#8217;s authors say that China will continue to dominate global manufacturing, moving into higher-value segments.



While this may create some space for other developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America to move into lower-end manufacturing in low-end sectors abandoned by China, it won&#8217;t be enough to replicate the transformative East Asian development model of moving from Agriculture to manufacturing.



Instead, CGD senior fellows Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake say that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services, where jobs will expand rapidly, especially because of new technologies &#8212; even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.



&#8220;There’s still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that’s not going to happen,&#8221; said Kenny. &#8220;We think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming decades, but people are likely to flood into offices and shops, not factories.&#8221;



The study projects global growth through the year 2050 and models changes in the economies of 59 countries accounting for about three quarters of the world’s GDP and population.



It projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will barely keep pace with population growth over the next 30 years, and manufacturing is likely to remain a small part of most of these countries’ economies.



Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to hold steady at below 8% of total employment, the study finds. It projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3% by 2050 from 11.4% currently.



It said that private service sector jobs will make up roughly 37% of global jobs by 2050, and 26% in today’s low-income countries, up from about 12% currently.



(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

FILE PHOTO: Staff work at copper and silver giftware manufacturer Copperwares workshop in Harare

Africa unlikely to follow East Asia’s manufacturing growth path -study

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="639" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-820x639.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428590" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-820x639.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-300x234.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-115x90.jpg 115w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-768x599.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-1536x1197.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Y3EKO2QHPZK35JDAMLZFL6ANYU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Rugby Union &#8211; Rugby World Cup 2023 &#8211; Final &#8211; New Zealand v South Africa &#8211; Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France &#8211; October 28, 2023 South Africa&#8217;s Handre Pollard does a drop kick REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier</figcaption></figure>



PARIS, Oct 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A record fourth Rugby World Cup showed South Africa&#8217;s dogged determination, which saw the team dig deep at critical moments.



Few sides have had as bruising a route to World Cup success as the Springboks in this tournament, playing against each of the other top six ranked nations on their way to the podium.



That road, culminating in a 12-11 win over traditional foes New Zealand in Saturday&#8217;s final at the Stade de France in Paris, but the Boks&#8217; tenacity took them over the line when it counted.



They edged three successive knockout stage matches by a single point to claim the Webb Ellis Cup.



The team talked of a responsibility to provide some distraction for their beleaguered South Africa, which is struggling in an economic downturn with heavy unemployment, crime and corruption.



But while that had its place in motivating success, a full-hearted approach on the field ultimately gave them the edge.



&#8220;As a South African, as a Springbok, you always believe you are going to win,&#8221; said centre Jesse Kriel.



South Africa threw themselves wholeheartedly into battle, tackling tenaciously and putting their bodies on the line.



Their defence underpinned the victory, while forward power saw to the points, using their strengths to maximum effect to earn penalties that Handre Pollard duly dispatched.



There was also the confidence of being coached by a group who were both innovative and prepared to take risks, such as gambling on a lack of cover for their backs in the final.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-relief">RELIEF</h2>



Coach Jacques Nienaber admitted a sense of deliverance.



&#8220;Relief is the first word that comes to mind,&#8221; he said.



&#8220;We thought we can&#8217;t mess this up because we believed from 2018 they had the ability to win the World Cup. I&#8217;m relieved for the players, they deserve it,&#8221; he added



South African success was also built on experience. Fourteen of the 23 players who featured in the final were winners in Japan four years earlier. Yet they never looked like a side swaggering with the self-confidence of defending champions and, indeed were not among the pre-tournament favourites for many.



A loss in the pool stage to Ireland exposed vulnerabilities, although once flyhalf Pollard returned to fitness and was called up to the squad they were able to rely on his precision kicking.



Victory over France in the quarter-final spoilt the home party and the Boks left it late to edge England in the semi-final, both times displaying an extra strength of will.



&#8220;You don&#8217;t have doubts. Winning is a mindset, something we train for and that belief came through again,&#8221; Kriel said.



(Editing by Alexander Smith)

Rugby World Cup 2023 – Final – New Zealand v South Africa

Springbok belief and physicality make for world beating mix

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Oct 27 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks and currencies broadly recovered on Friday, ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. inflation print that could set the tone for monetary policy in the world&#8217;s biggest economy.



The MSCI&#8217;s gauge for emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;rose 1.1%, while a basket of regional currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;crawled 0.1% up against the dollar by 0843 GMT.



All eyes are on U.S. September personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge, that could determine the outlook for Treasury yields and the dollar. The data is expected at 1230 GMT, ahead of the Fed&#8217;s interest rate decision next week.



&#8220;If the U.S. PCE data are in line with expectations, market expectations that the tightening cycle is over in the U.S. will be cemented,&#8221; said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.



&#8220;That said, sentiment towards EM is unlikely to improve significantly and sustainably until the Fed adopts a dovish rhetoric and geopolitical tensions ease markedly.&#8221;



Caution also loomed with crude prices spiking as reports that the U.S. military struck Iranian targets in Syria raised concerns of a widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict that could impact supply from the Middle East.&nbsp;O/R



Trade in currencies of top oil importers like India&nbsp;INR=, Thailand&nbsp;THB=&nbsp;and Philippines&nbsp;PHP=&nbsp;was lacklustre.



Giving sentiment a boost was China local data which showed profits at industrial firms extended gains for a second month in September. Chinese top stocks .CSI300 closed 1.4% up and the Hang Seng index .HIS ended 2.1% higher.



Weekly performances are mixed among EM assets, with stocks looking set for a decline of 0.6%, while currencies are headed for gains.



Reports of a $137 billion stimulus plan by China aided risk-taking earlier in the week, amid pressures by U.S. Treasury yields and Middle East jitters.



Portfolio outflows from local currency bonds have also continued and while not accelerating, would limit scope for any rally, Barclays analysts wrote in a note.



Meanwhile, Turkey&#8217;s lira traded 28.1 to the dollar after the local central bank said it was taking fresh steps to simplify the macroprudential framework and increase the share of lira deposits, a day after lifting borrowing costs as expected.



The Russian rouble&nbsp;RUBUTSTN=MCX&nbsp;traded at 93.55 to the dollar ahead of a rate decision, where economists largely expect a 100 basis points rate hike, according to economists polled by Reuters. The decision is due at 1030 GMT.



Elsewhere, a poll of analysts expects Pakistan&#8217;s central bank to hold rates steady at a meeting next week, as the country awaits its first review following a loan from the International Monetary Fund. The rupee PKR= gained 0.6%.



(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Krain Strohecker, editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

FX inches up ahead of US inflation data, China stocks boost EM

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="533" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/download-23.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-412705" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/download-23.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/download-23-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/download-23-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/download-23-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Nigerian naira banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, September 10, 2018. Picture taken September 10, 2018. REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/Illustration/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Oct 27 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Nigeria&#8217;s naira&nbsp;NGN=D1&nbsp;is on the brink of breaching 1,000 per dollar after falling to an official record low of 999 last week, Refinitiv data showed, tracing its weakness on the unofficial market where it trades freely.



President Bola Tinubu removed Nigeria&#8217;s foreign currency controls in June in a bid to get transactions flowing through the official market again to help unify the naira&#8217;s exchange rates.



But that has only fuelled the currency&#8217;s weakness and added to inflationary pressures.



Here is what you need to know about the naira.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-is-the-naira-falling">WHY IS THE NAIRA FALLING?</h2>



The central bank has a backlog of accumulated forex demand on the official market, which effectively forces individuals and businesses to head to the black market if they need dollars.



But dollar flows to Nigeria have been falling in the last few years due to declining investment and lower exports of crude oil, which account for more than 90% of the country&#8217;s export income.



Investors cheered when Tinubu lifted the currency controls, hoping a unified exchange rate would make it easier to access foreign currency, but that is yet to happen.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-big-is-the-foreign-currency-backlog">HOW BIG IS THE FOREIGN CURRENCY BACKLOG?</h2>



Nigeria has nearly $7 billion in forex forwards that are past due, which corporates bought from local banks. Banks then repaid foreign credit lines with their own funds when the central bank did not pay out.



That means corporates are unable to get new letters of credit, while the banks are owed dollars. New central bank governor Yemi Cardoso said clearing the backlog was a priority but he gave no timeline for how long it would take.



Some analysts say the forward agreements could be rolled over by 24 to 36 months, giving the central bank more time to find the dollars to pay off the corporates.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-big-are-nigeria-s-forex-reserves">HOW BIG ARE NIGERIA&#8217;S FOREX RESERVES?</h2>



The country&#8217;s forex reserves fell to $33.5 billion in September from $37 billion in January, central bank data shows.



In August, the central bank published audited accounts for the first time since 2018, and revealed that its reserves included a $19 billion commitment in derivatives &#8211; slashing the liquid amount of the reserves.



JPMorgan calculated that the country&#8217;s net FX reserves stood at $3.7 billion as of the end of 2022, &#8220;significantly lower&#8221; than prior estimates.



Nigeria&#8217;s crude excess account only has $473,755, the National Economic Council said in August, down from a peak of $20 billion in 2008, after successive governments withdrew dollars to support the naira and budget spending.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-will-the-central-bank-restore-forex-open-positions">WILL THE CENTRAL BANK RESTORE FOREX OPEN POSITIONS?</h2>



Nigerian banks are not allowed to have open positions on the dollar, meaning that they cannot buy forex for their own account from the market or speculate on the value of the currency.



Banks use their open net positions on foreign currency to finance short-term trade lines without resorting to the central bank for bidding. That means banks &#8220;make the market&#8221; for dollars and provide two-way quotes for buying and selling the currency, effectively creating a fully functioning forex market.



A trader said if banks were allowed to make the market on the dollar, the local currency could weaken further because they would sell to customers at rates determined by demand and supply.



Nigeria&#8217;s 2024 budget assumes a benchmark exchange rate of 700 naira to the dollar. The finance minister says the parallel market rate of 1,300 naira does not reflect the true value of the local currency.



&#8220;Given that the naira remains much weaker on the parallel market, further devaluations – and rises in inflation – are likely,&#8221; Capital Economics said in a research note.



(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha, Editing by MacDonald Dzirutwe and Hugh Lawson)

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What is pushing the Nigerian naira to record lows?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428556" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/LPLH3MCUKZPKLOKBOCFD2MBNBQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Nigerian naira notes are seen in this picture illustration March 15, 2016 REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde/Illustration</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 26 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan and Kenyan shillings and Zambia&#8217;s kwacha are expected to slip in the next week to Thursday, while Nigeria&#8217;s naira is forecast to be range-bound on the official market and Ghana&#8217;s cedi and Tanzania&#8217;s shilling broadly stable, traders said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-kenya">KENYA</h2>



Kenya&#8217;s shilling is forecast to weaken because of increased demand for dollars from importers from all sectors.



Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 150.30/50 per U.S. dollar, compared with last Thursday&#8217;s closing rate of 149.90/150.10.



Earlier on Thursday, the shilling, which is down 17.9% so far this year, touched a new all-time low of 150.35/55 per dollar, according to LSEG data.



&#8220;We have seen a lot of demand, but it cuts across all sectors,&#8221; one trader said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nigeria">NIGERIA</h2>



Nigeria&#8217;s naira is seen trading around its current levels on the official market in the coming week, after the finance minister said the government was expecting $10 billion of inflows to ease dollar shortages.



However the currency will likely fall on the black market, where it trades freely but on thin volumes, one trader said.



The naira recovered to 775 naira to the dollar on the official market on Thursday from a record low of 999 naira touched last week. But it hit a record low of 1,300 to the dollar on the black market on Thursday.



&#8220;Market participants realise that even if you take the (exchange) rates (down) there are no funds. I expect the market to trade around the 800 levels next week,&#8221; the trader said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-uganda">UGANDA</h2>



Uganda&#8217;s shilling is expected to fall on customary end-month demand for dollars from goods importers.



Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,760/3,770 to the dollar, compared with last Thursday&#8217;s closing rate of 3,750/3,760.



&#8220;We anticipate a bit of demand as importers seek dollars to pay for shipments of goods for the coming month,&#8221; said a forex trader.



He said the shilling might weaken to 3,800 to the dollar in the coming days.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-zambia">ZAMBIA</h2>



Zambia&#8217;s kwacha is likely to continue trading on the back foot next week as dollar demand, largely from energy importers, continues to exceed supply.



On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the kwacha at 22.11 per dollar, compared with 21.79 a week earlier.



&#8220;The local currency is projected to follow a downward trajectory,&#8221; Access Bank said in a note.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-ghana">GHANA</h2>



Ghana&#8217;s cedi is expected to remain steady due to improved dollar supply on the interbank market and a fall in demand.



LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.81 to the dollar on Thursday, compared to 11.80 at last Thursday&#8217;s close.



&#8220;The cedi traded relatively stable against the dollar in the past week. &#8230; We expect a similar narrative in the coming week,&#8221; said Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader Absa Bank Ghana.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tanzania">TANZANIA</h2>



Tanzania&#8217;s shilling is expected to hold steady as dollar inflows from foreign direct investment, tourism and agricultural exports meet demand from importers.



Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,495/2,505 per dollar, the same as last Thursday&#8217;s close.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema, George Obulutsa, Nuzulack Dausen, Chris Mfula, Christian Akorlie and Chijioke Ohuocha Editing by Alexander Winning)

Nigerian naira notes are seen in this picture illustration

WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-Ugandan, Kenyan and Zambian currencies seen sliding

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="542" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-820x542.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-428547" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-820x542.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-136x90.jpg 136w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-1536x1015.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7IVAIW4RBVN7BE7P5VXAC66TQE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Social grant recipients stand in a queue outside a post office, as joblessness takes its toll in Meadowlands, a suburb of Soweto, South Africa, February 24, 2022. Picture taken February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 26 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s social relief grant is likely to be extended beyond next March, economists said, which may add an unbudgeted 50 billion rand ($2.6 billion) to state expenses and require difficult trade-offs before an election year.



The social relief of distress (SRD) grant of 350 rand a month was introduced in 2020 to support those hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has been debating whether it could end this support claimed by 8.5 million people or make it permanent.



Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present a midterm budget on Nov. 1, indicating how he plans to deal with revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns at a time when more than a quarter of social development funding is used on grants.



Removing the SRD altogether would be tricky ahead of 2024 elections where President Cyril Ramaphosa&#8217;s African National Congress party could lose its majority for the first time since the end of Apartheid as social and economic conditions worsen.



&#8220;Realistically you&#8217;re going into an election year, you don&#8217;t have a vibrant economy, you have households clearly under pressure &#8211; I can&#8217;t see it being removed,&#8221; said Kevin Lings, chief economist at financial services firm Stanlib.



Goolam Ballim, chief economist at lender Standard Bank, said he expects the grant to be extended into fiscal 2024-25 with the possibility that it continues beyond that.



But that will force the government into trade-offs, either by raising taxes, borrowing more or cutting other grants.



Winding down housing grants and other smaller grants such as military veteran transfers could be one approach, BNP Paribas said in a note.



Elizabeth Raiters, founder of Pay the Grants, a civil organization that has been advocating for SRD&#8217;s continuation, has the same concern.



&#8220;They (Treasury) have said they may have to cut other spending or other grants to afford the SRD grant, but I don&#8217;t think that is fair,&#8221; she said.



Another option outlined by Treasury would be to raise taxes or borrow more, a risky move that could inflate the debt-to-GDP ratio to 72% in the midterm budget as spending on higher public wages and failing state-owned entities compounds the problem.



The SRD, in addition to other welfare support, was extended one year to March 2024 at a cost of 36.1 billion rand.



Treasury has estimated it would cost at least 50 billion rand more a year to keep it in place permanently. ($1 = 19.1208 rand) 



(Reporting by Kopano Gumbi; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo, John Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)

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