Fed hawks, doves, and centrists: Tracking US central bankers’ views

March 5 (Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation. The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes. Now, with inflation easing and the labor market still strong but cooling, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. The following chart offers a look at how officials view the outlook for Fed policy and how best to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic. We include rate-path expectations for those policymakers who have specified them. Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story. Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Patrick Jerome Loretta Michelle Harker, Powell, Fed Mester, Bowman, Philadelphia Chair, Cleveland Governor, Fed permanent Fed permanent President, voter: “The President, voter: 2026 voter: prudent 2024 voter*: “I will When it thing to do Three rate remain comes to a is…to just cuts in 2024 cautious rate cut, “I give it some “feels about in my think we’re time and see right,” she approach close, give that the said on Feb to us a couple data confirm 29, 2024. “I considerin of that think both g future meetings.” inflation is the economy changes in Feb 22, 2024 moving down is in a good the stance to 2% in a spot and of sustainable monetary policy.” way.” Feb 4, policy is in Feb 27, 2023 a good spot. 2024 And that gives us this opportunity really to look at the balance of risk between our dual mandate goals.” John Thomas Williams, Barkin, New York Fed Richmond Fed President, President, permanent 2024 voter: “I do voter: “I’m expect us to still cut interest hopeful rates later inflation is this going to year…there come down ‘s no and if urgency to inflation do that.” normalizes Feb 29, 2024 then it makes the case for why you want to normalize rates, but to me it starts with inflation.” March 1, 2024 Philip Jefferson, Jeffrey Vice Chair: Schmid, “If the Kansas City economy Fed evolves President, broadly as 2025 voter: expected, it “With will likely inflation be running appropriate above to begin target, dialing back labor our policy markets restraint tight and later this demand year.” Feb showing 22, 2024 considerable momentum, my own view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy.” Feb 26, 2024 Michael Neel Barr, Vice Kashkari, Chair of Minneapolis Supervision, Fed permanent President, voter: “It’s 2026 voter: very early “I would say to say two to three whether we cuts would end up with seem to be a soft appropriate landing or for me right not.” Feb now.” Feb 7, 14, 2024 2024 Christopher Lorie Logan, Waller, Dallas Fed Governor, President, permanent 2026 voter: voter: I’m really “There is no not seeing rush to any urgency begin to make any cutting additional interest adjustments rates to at this normalize time.” Feb monetary 9, 2024 policy.” Feb 22, 2024 Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: “I would like to have greater confidence that inflation is converging to 2% before beginning to cut the policy rate.” Feb 22, 2024 Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: “I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioratio n of the labor market.” March 1, 2024 Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: On Fed policymakers ‘ median expectation for three rate cuts this year, “I think that’s a reasonable baseline.” Feb 16, 2024 Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: Expects two rate cuts this year. “This threat of what I’ll call pent-up exuberance is a new upside risk that I think bears scrutiny in coming months.” March 4, 2024 Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: Forecast for 2024 rate cuts is “closer” to the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts, he said on Jan. 11. “The question is, how long to remain this restrictive. ” Feb 29, 2024 Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Baseline expectation for 2024 rate cuts is “similar” to the median Fed policymaker expectation for three rate cuts, she said on Feb. 8. “I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year.” Feb 28, 2024 Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred last July. Projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher this year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix. *Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings. FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk March ’24 0 1 11 5 1 Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1 Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1 Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2 Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3 June ’23 0 3 3 8 3 March ’23 0 2 3 10 2 Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2 (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2024. Click For Restrictions – https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html