Fed hawks and doves: U.S. central bankers in their own words

April 1 (Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation. The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes. Now, with inflation easing and the labor market still strong but cooling, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. Coming out of the March 19-20 policy meeting, the vibe on the Fed’s policymaking panel is slightly more hawkish than it had been, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noting he had scaled back his rate-cut expectations. Still, the majority remains centrist. For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. The following chart offers a look at how officials view the outlook for Fed policy and how best to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic. We include rate-path expectations for those policymakers who have specified them. Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Patrick Jerome Raphael Michelle Harker, Powell, Fed Bostic, Bowman, Philadelphia Chair, Atlanta Fed Governor, Fed permanent President, permanent President, voter: “We 2024 voter: voter: 2026 voter: can and we Now expects “I will When it will be one rate cut remain comes to a careful about this year, cautious rate cut, “I this decision one less in my think we’re because we than approach close, give can be.” previously. to us a couple March 29, “I’m considerin of 2024 definitely g future meetings.” less changes in Feb 22, 2024 confident the stance than I was of in policy.” December.” March 7, March 22, 2024 2024 John Loretta Williams, New Mester, York Fed Cleveland President, Fed permanent President, voter: Three 2024 voter*: rate cuts in Three rate 2024 is “a cuts in 2024 reasonable “feels about kind of right.” (Feb starting 29, 2024) point.” (Feb “My base 28, 2024) “I case is that do expect us when we do to cut begin to interest move rates rates later down, we this year … will do so there’s no at a gradual urgency to do pace.” March that.” Feb 7, 2024 29, 2024 Philip Thomas Jefferson, Barkin, Vice Chair: Richmond Fed “If the President, economy 2024 evolves voter: “I’m broadly as still expected, it hopeful will likely inflation is be going to appropriate come down to begin and if dialing back inflation our policy normalizes, restraint then it later this makes the year.” Feb case for why 22, 2024 you want to normalize rates, but to me it starts with inflation.” March 1, 2024 Michael Barr, Jeffrey Vice Chair of Schmid, Supervision, Kansas City permanent Fed voter: “It’s President, very early to 2025 voter: say whether “With we end up inflation with a ‘soft running landing’ or above not.” Feb 14, target, 2024 labor markets tight and demand showing considerable momentum, my own view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy.” Feb 26, 2024 Christopher Neel Waller, Kashkari, Governor, Minneapolis permanent Fed voter: “There President, is no rush to 2026 voter: cut the Penciled in policy rate.” two 2024 March 27, rate cuts in 2024 December. “It seems like at a base case I’d be where I was in December, or potentially one fewer, but I haven’t decided.” March 6, 2024 Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan, Governor, Dallas Fed permanent President, voter: “Fully 2026 voter: restoring I’m really price not seeing stability may any urgency take a to make any cautious additional approach to adjustments easing at this monetary time.” Feb policy over 9, 2024 time.” March 25, 2024 Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: “I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market.” March 1, 2024 Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: Three rate cuts this year is “a reasonable baseline.” (Feb 16, 2024) “Our goal was always this: restore price stability as gently as we can; we are on a path to do that, but we’re not giving up until we’re done.” March 6, 2024. Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: At the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts in 2024. “We’re in an uncertain state, but it doesn’t feel to me like we’ve changed fundamentally the story that we’re getting back to target.” March 25, 2024 Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Baseline expectation for 2024 rate cuts is “similar” to the median Fed policymaker expectation for three rate cuts. (Feb 8, 2024) “I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year.” Feb 28, 2024 Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred last July. Projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher this year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix. *Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is. Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings. FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1 March ’24 0 1 11 5 1 Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1 Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1 Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2 Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3 June ’23 0 3 3 8 3 March ’23 0 2 3 10 2 Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2 (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)

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